Good morning, and welcome to the Kenmare Resources first half 2022 results briefing. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the star one again. For operator assistance throughout the call, press star zero. Finally, I would like to advise all participants this call is being recorded. Thank you. I would now like to hand over to Mr. Michael Carvill, Managing Director of Kenmare Resources. Michael, you may begin your call.
Thanks, Paul. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Kenmare Resources H1 2022 results presentation. As Paul said, I'm Michael Carvill. I'm the Managing Director. In the room with me are Tony McCluskey, Finance Director, Ben Baxter, Chief Operations Officer, and Jeremy Dibb, Corporate Development and Investor Relations Manager. We will all be available to answer any questions after a short presentation that we're going to make. Just before I get into the main body of presentation, I'd like to mention that this will be Tony's last presentation as Finance Director of Kenmare before he retires and goes and spends some time cycling and enjoying himself. Tony has been working with Kenmare for 31 years.
During that time, we've gone from, you know, a very basic exploration company through the development of the Moma mining project, through into being a mining production company. It's been a process of genesis and change with many traumas during that time. On behalf of everyone at Kenmare, I'd like to thank Tony for the great contribution he's made over those years as a work colleague and a friend. Anyway, we'll hear more from Tony later on. I'll just move in. If I could look at slide four.
Thank you, Michael.
Kenmare is now the largest supplier of ilmenite, a titanium, main titanium feedstock mineral into the global world market. We represent about 8% of global titanium feedstock production, and we have the capacity to operate at 1.2 million tons of ilmenite supply, plus co-products of zircon, rutile, and mineral sand concentrate per annum. During the period between 2018 and 2020, we completed three development projects which allowed us to increase our capacity to that level. Just turning through to slide 5. We operate the company with view of creating a sustainable competitive advantage, and we do that based on three main pillars, operating responsibly, delivering low cost production, and then allocating capital that's generated efficiently.
In terms of operating responsibility, we believe a safe and engaged workforce is an absolutely key component of that. We're delighted to say that we have achieved a lost time injury frequency rate of zero. Also during H1 2022, we passed the milestone of having 10 million man-hours worked without a single lost time injury. We think that's a remarkable achievement and it's a huge credit to the management at the mine and to everybody that's working there for ensuring the safety of themselves and their work colleagues. We target a first quartile position in the revenue to cost curve for the industry.
That combined with record average sales prices has provided, you know, a strong cash flow, which has allowed us move towards two of our objectives, which are strong balance sheet, and we have strengthened our balance sheet during H1, and improved shareholder returns, and we've increased our interim dividend by 51%. Turning to slide six. We're very aware that the world is facing great uncertainty at the moment. We have the first war in Europe since the breakup of Yugoslavia. U.S., China tensions have increased. Interest rates have increased. We realize that the demand for titanium pigment, which is the main use of titanium feedstocks, is related to world GDP growth, and forecasts for world GDP growth are reducing.
However, at the moment, Kenmare's order book for H2 is largely committed. We are seeing strong demand for our products. Looking further into the future, it's very clear that major industrializing economies such as China and India have a very long way to go in terms of their consumption of titanium pigment per capita before this market becomes a mature market. We see the market as having quite a long way to go before it becomes a fully mature market with a reduction in growth. Turning to slide 7. The result of that is that we achieved a sales price of $429 per ton for the material we exported, combined with our shipment levels. That produced $106 million worth of EBITDA and $63 million worth of profit.
In terms of our capital projects, we have been installing a Rotary Uninterruptible Power Supply system at the mine so as to stabilize the voltage of power that's delivered to the mineral separation plant. Just to backtrack on that, we supply most of the electricity. Over 90% of the electrical power that is used in this mine is created sustainably by a hydroelectric dam on the Zambezi River, and that power is then transmitted through a transmission grid to the mine. There's plenty of power available, but the transmission grid is long and vulnerable, and consequently, we have some volatility in the power that arrives at the project. The RUPS stabilizes that. It's now in operation, and it has been working absolutely perfectly. We're absolutely delighted with the performance of RUPS.
Since it's been in operation, the mineral separation plant has no knowledge of any dips whatsoever. It's been really fantastic. Our study on the movement of our concentrate from Plant A to the Namalope ore zone, which is the largest ore zone in our overall set within our licensed area, is underway. We have been doing trial mining looking at different methods of mining. Those trial mining tests have gone very well, we are delighted to say. We're progressing to optimize the way we will mine Namalope in the future. With that, I'll ask Tony to give us an update on the finances.
Thanks, Michael. Thanks for your opening remarks. As well as the challenges, I remember many highs over the last 31 years as well. Good morning, everybody, and welcome from me to our H1 results update. On page 9, you'll see from the income statement that the strong product markets that Michael touched on has enabled us to again increase our revenues compared to the same period last year, which in turn has increased our profitability and earnings. Sort of looking at the pie on the right-hand side, you can see the effect of revenue increasing by 9% despite a reduced volume because of shipping constraints, which I'll talk about later.
We have increased our average price by 52%, and that the mix of that price has been more weighted to our non-ilmenite sales than the low end in 2021. To just emphasize that this is really due to a mix on shipping rather than any change in production. We see the 2022 situation as more reflective of the future. Back to the income statement then. Cost of sales and other operating costs is relatively flat. Finance and foreign exchange costs are down as a result of the reduced debt, again, which we'll come to later. Tax at $6 million is up from the first half last year, which is back to a more normalized rate. I think we flagged during H1 last year that the $2.6 million was anomalously low.
The result of all of that is an increase in both profit after tax and EBITDA of just under 30% in both cases. That leaves us with a very healthy EBITDA margin of 58%. Moving on then to our revenue slide on slide 10. Our product markets, as I've said, have continued to strengthen through the first half of the year. The ilmenite price is up 36%, and primary zircon is up 52%. The mix swing that I touched on on the previous slide has also helped the average in total. If you look at the graph on the top right-hand side, the price for the first half of ilmenite is actually $349, which is, you know, well up from the lows that we've seen about 5 years ago.
That said, you know, shipments during the period were lower. We had two major weather systems that came through in the first quarter that we previously reported on in our production updates, and they impacted on shipping. In addition to that, one of our two transshipment vessels underwent a five-year scheduled dry dock in Durban, and that vessel is due back later this week, so will be back in service. I think it was particularly pleasing to see the other transshipment vessel, which is our PEG, perform very well during the period. But it did, as a net effect, reduce the amount of product that we had available to ship. Most of that, of course, is in the shed and available for shipment in the second half of the year.
Moving on to the statement where we reconcile our income statement to the cash cost of ilmenite produced. I mean, dropping straight to the bottom of that slide, you can see how the effect of co-product revenues from our zircon, rutile, and mineral sands concentrate has enabled us to reduce the cost per ton of ilmenite to $105 per ton, which is down 9%. Just stepping into the statement for a moment for a couple of call-outs there. Depreciation, as you can see, is up. That's a function of additions and asset disposals, and some changes in depreciation rates, but probably the more meaningful number there is the increase in product stock, which is a function of the lower shipments.
$28 million is adjusted from our cost of sales to bring us back to the cash operating cost of producing the products that we have produced during the period. That is up, the inflation that, you know, you hear about more generally in the mining industry, you know, is certainly becoming evident to Kenmare and one to watch in the second half of the year. We didn't see so much of it in the first quarter because we have, you know, large consumable stocks, but it starts to become evident in the second quarter. It's not across one area, you know, it's across a number of them, which I've touched on the right-hand side.
Our face production is down for the first half of the year, and that's why we've ended up with a relatively higher cost per ton of $184. With improved production in the second half of the year, we'd expect to see this reduce. Look, the bottom line we have per ton of ilmenite is $105, and that compares to the $349 that I mentioned on the earlier slide. That illustrates for you know, the strong cash generation that is evident from this business during the last six months.
Moving on to the net debt bridge and, you know, this strong operating cash flow with that margin that I've just talked through has enabled us to reduce net debt from $83 million at the end of December to $66 million. The movement in property, plant, and equipment, dividends, interest, and fees, you know, are all relatively normal. What we wouldn't be expecting to see, and we'd be expecting to see a reversal on this, is the working capital change of $28 million, which mainly relates to the movement in finished product. Just to put a bit of color on that, at the end of December, we had 89,000 tons of finished products, and that increased to 215,000 tons of finished products in the sheds at the end of June.
This is due to the shipping constraints. That's available for sale in the second half of the year with the Bronagh J back in service and both our transshipment vessels operating well. Moving on to the balance sheet, it's nice to see that the balance sheet has continued to strengthen with that reduction in net debt. You'll see the inventories up from $60 million - $91 million, most of which relates to this stock effect that I touched on. The trades and other receivables, you know, moves around. It's a function of the timing of ships. Cash is reduced to just over $30 million. I guess, you know, that's after all the normal operating capital costs.
It's also after paying $24 million as a final dividend in the first half of the year and repayment of $55.7 million of debt. Between dividends and debt, that $30 million is still there, after a total of $80 million. Of the debt, 15.7 relates to the first payment on our term loan facility, as scheduled. There'll be another one of those in the second half. We had sufficient cash to pay down fully our revolving credit facility. This facility has been renewed and has been extended to December 2023, and we were pleased to see that we were able to do that with our lending banks at a margin of 4.25%, which is just down from 5%.
That was a positive development in the last few weeks. Finally for me, we continue to deliver on the commitment that we've made to shareholders to return cash. This is on the back of the 13.5% share buyback, which we successfully completed in Q4 of 2021. The payout ratio is as we had in 2021, which is 25% of profit after tax. Thus, we would be paying $10.4 million of an interim dividend, and that is $0.1098 per share. That's a dividend per share increase of over 50% for the period using the usual one-third, two-thirds interim final split. With that, thank you for listening, and I'll hand you over to Ben Baxter. Thanks, Ben.
Thanks, Tony, and good morning to you all. If we can move to slide 16. I'd like to start by highlighting and reiterating what Michael had said, that our strongest safety performance is continuing and we have had 0 lost time injuries in the first half of the year, which is a fantastic result. That has meant now that in June we celebrated 10 million man hours without an injury on site, which means that our last injury was in early 2021. The performance is, it's not luck. It's due to an awful lot of work and focus that's gone into improving the way we do hazard identification and risk assessment on site.
It's been bolstered by the fact that we have implemented a leadership coaching program in the business, where all leaders have taken part, and this is improving employee engagement, and that is particularly in the areas of safety. On to slide 17. More broadly speaking, we're advancing our sustainability goals. So while, as I've just said, we've seen the safe and engaged workforce improvement, we're also seeing additions around the health of our employees, and we've implemented a wellness program in the first half to not only improve health but also the prosperity of the employees. We're continuing to build thriving communities, and we're doing that through supporting and collaborating with a company called MozParks.
They're busy building, at the moment, an industrial park on the edge of the mine. What this will do is it will bring in local industry, improve the amount of industry that's immediately adjacent to the mine and create local employment. Our rehabilitation is still very much a focus, and we've been working on combining improvements in biodiversity as well as provision of subsistence farming land for local communities. We're doing this through the development of an agroforestry trial, and we're seeing that we're expecting this to improve the quality of our rehabilitation going forwards. Then lastly, we're working on our supply chain.
We've completed an audit of all of our major suppliers, and this has been focused around their sustainability credentials so that we can develop ourselves of knowing our supply chain better and building trust in our own, and governance in our own business. Moving on to slide 18 and into production. We had a challenging first half to the year. What I would say is however, that since May we've really started to deliver much stronger performance and that's been good to see.
Production was limited by heavy mineral concentrate production at the mine, and this was impacted by, as Tony mentioned earlier, two tropical storms that took place in Q1 and then also a general increase in the levels of slimes that we experienced in the mining process. However, the slimes levels were stabilized, and that was completed by May, and since then we've seen very much stronger HMC performance until now. Just by way of explanation, the slimes levels are steadily increasing in the Namalope ore zone, and this means that good paddock management and settling is becoming more challenging.
Nataka pre-feasibility study has now shown us that mining in Nataka from 2025 will require an upfront desliming circuit as per the one that we already have at WCP B. We're now investigating and evaluating the potential to bring forward that investment to see whether we can get the early benefits in the remaining time in Namalope. For more information on the slimes, you can refer back to the appendix in the presentation pack. The impact of all of that was that production of finished products was down 10% in the first half of the year, and that was in line with the amount of HMC that was processed by the mineral separation plant.
However, the zircon and the rutile production was better based on very good recoveries, and the MSP is performing very well. When we look forwards with the improved performance we've seen in the last three months and we expect that to continue moving forwards, and this, what this will do is it will ensure that we do achieve our guidance levels this year, albeit it'll be at the bottom end of the range. On to shipments. Shipments were down 29% in the first half of the year, and this was due to the poorer weather we experienced and also the reduced shipping capacity.
The Bronagh transshipment vessel, which is our larger transshipment vessel, was undertaking its five-yearly dry dock maintenance program, and that vessel has now completed its maintenance and is returning to site, and we expect it to be back in service in the coming days. What this means is going forward in the second half is that with the very good performance from the PEG vessel combined with the Bronagh returning to service, we expect to have sufficient capacity to catch up on the shipping of the finished products, and we have healthy stocks of that right now. We expect those stocks to be normalized by the first half of next year. Moving to slide 19. The Nataka pre-feasibility study is progressing well, and it's delivering some important results.
You might recall that Namalope is our largest ore body. It comprises 79% of the resources that we have, and WCP A is expected to mine into the Namalope zone from 2025, and it will be dredging a corridor to a high-grade dredge path from that time. On the current status, Michael Carvill mentioned we've been very pleased with the hydro mining testing work that we've been doing in the first half of the year. We're comfortable that we have the right mining methods to mine Namalope well. We're currently in the process now of trading off the combinations of dredging and that hydro mining method, and we'll be in a position to talk more about that in the early part of next year.
The PFS is due to be completed by the end of this year, and we will give some updates in the early part of next year, as I say. Some parts of this study have completed and already moved into definitive feasibility study. This is particularly in the processing area, and we're starting to get now firmer views of the way forwards with Nataka. What this has meant is that we have now an initial estimate of the capital cost of this project, and we believe it will be not less than $225 million. We are continuing to finalize that mining method. We're trading off the capital versus the operating costs, and coming up with the most optimal solution.
There will be some further refinements to that number, and we'll be able to give you more details on that at the end of the year. Onto slide 20. I'd like to just give a little bit of an update on the RUPS. This is a project which really has moved into delivery, and it's really doing very well. The project's in operation, and it's actively mitigating supply disruptions in the grid. This means that we will not need to use diesel generators to mitigate power dips going forward. Therefore, we will expect to see significant diesel consumption, diesel reductions, bringing operating cost savings, but also reducing our carbon dioxide emissions.
We expect in 2024 that this project will deliver a 12% reduction in our overall emissions of the business. In the more immediate term, we're seeing the reduced diesel consumption, and we're seeing the improved utilization that the stable power supply brings, and this is having a knock-on benefit into the mineral recoveries in the mineral separation plant. Overall, a very pleasing project that's now working very well. With that, I'll pass over to Michael to give us a marketing update.
Thanks, Ben. If we could turn to page 22, please. I mentioned at the start of our presentation that we had seen strong prices in H1 2022, and you can see from the graph on the top left-hand side the fact that we have, in fact, in H2 2021 and H1 2022, seen a, you know, an uptick in the rate of improvement of titanium feed prices and our average price. In part, the reason for that is the graph on the right-hand side, which is of world slag production, titanium slag production capacity.
Previously, the paradigm in with regard to beneficiation of titanium feedstocks into titanium slag was that a slag plant would be owned by a mining company, and it would be positioned close to or serviced directly by an integrated mining operation. The material would be mined and then placed directly into the slag plant for beneficiation. There has been a rise of non-integrated slag plants, and these plants then have to buy the ilmenite on the world market for beneficiation, as they like the type of ilmenite that's produced at Moma and is a very important growing market for Kenmare products. If we just turn to slide 23.
On the left-hand side of the top of this slide, we can see company-generated demand supply balance for the titanium feedstock market in terms of titanium dioxide units. You can see that during the years from 2015 to present day, there has been a small deficit of supply vis-à-vis demand. That gap has been satisfied by the gradual drawing down of an excess world inventory that was generated between 2011 and 2015. If you look over on the chart on the right-hand side, you can see that excess in industry inventory grew until 2015 and has gradually been used up since then, and it's now back at a normal or a low level.
Consequently, we believe that through the whole value-added chain in the titanium dioxide industry, we believe that there are low levels of inventory. Looking again at the supply-demand balance, you can see that we are projecting that in 2023, there will be a slight reduction in demand. We believe that this is consequent to the reduction in world GDP, but even still, even with that reduction in demand, it requires new project capacity, new mining capacity be brought on to satisfy that demand. There needs to be a sufficient position in the market to allow that new capacity to be developed. Turning to page 24. As far as we're concerned, we're seeing strong pricing momentum continuing into Q3.
We realize that demand for titanium feedstocks is related to world GDP, and forecasts for world GDP growth have been reducing. Nonetheless, our customers remain robust in their demands for our products, and we believe that we'll have no difficulty in supplying the market and the market absorbing our material into 2023. Zircon market is also tight. All of our customers in the West are keen to get more material than we can deliver. In China, because of the very severe reduction in real estate activity, the market is weak, but we don't really sell much zircon in China. Turning to outlook. Slide 26. Kenmare targets a first quartile position in the revenue to cost curve for the industry. The chart you see here is generated independently.
It's sourced from a group called TZMI, and they don't do it every year, so therefore the prediction we have from them, independent prediction, is for 2023. And it has us in the first quartile. We believe we were in the first quartile in 2022. With our lower production, this year, we might just nudge out of it, but, we'll be seeking to re-enter that first quartile position, and that's a key target of our management of the company. Turning to slide 27. I mentioned these three pillars on which we operate the business at the start of the presentation. How have we done with regard to them in Q1 2022? Well, we've mentioned the lowest ever lost time injury frequency rate.
We are delighted with that and believe it's a very good thing. With the RUPS in operation, that helps us meet a bunch of our ESG targets. We have a EBITDA margin of 58%, which is, you know, a good EBITDA margin and allowed us generate a strong cash flow, which has allowed us increase our dividend by 51% a share. 51% compared to Q1 2021, and has allowed us reduce our net debt. That's really the end of our presentation, and we'd be delighted to take questions from anyone. Thank you very much.
Thank you to Michael, Tony, and Ben for the presentation. At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star then the number one on your telephone keypad, and we will pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Okay, your first question comes from the line of Richard Hatch of Berenberg Bank. Your line is now open.
Very much. Good morning, gents, and thanks for the call. A few questions, please. First one, just getting a bit of feedback this morning just on the $225 million CapEx number for A. Can you just talk around the comfort you've got on that number and the risk of seeing that increase? I mean, if we just think about WCPB, that the move there cost $127 million, so fairly sort of meaningful difference. Can you just perhaps, Ben, just remind us what the main kind of additional cost items are there that we need to be thinking about that kind of explains the difference between the two moves? That's the first one.
Okay. Richard, it's Michael responding on that. Firstly, some time has elapsed between the move of B and the move of A. The move there is in 2026, the move of B was in 2020. We have inflation in the meantime. In addition to that, B is a larger plant. It's also an older plant, and the way we're going to move it.
A.
Sorry, A is a larger plant and an older plant. The way we're going to move it is different. We will be mining our way through a low-grade zone to the Nataka ore body. That's why it's a longer, slower process of getting to Nataka. We have to build infrastructure tariffs, but the real principal difference is that with A, we will have to build a tailings storage facility. When we're mining in Nataka, we will be separating our slimes and pumping them to a tailings storage facility, a dam, where they will be stored. The pumping and the dam associated with that is a significant cost item which was not involved with the B move.
Okay. Thanks, Michael. Have you got a handle on what kind of CapEx in kind of inflation we're talking about if we're comparing? I guess you can't compare like with like, but do you have a handle on it?
Well, no, I can't give you a precise percentage of the inflation there, Richard. When you ask about the 225, we can't guarantee that it's not going to be more than 210-225. We felt that it was important to get that number, which we believe is a reasonable estimate of the cost into the market so that people have a good understanding of the general quantum of project that we're dealing with here. It's a large project.
Yeah. Understood. Okay. Thank you. The second is just on kind of staying around WCP A and Namalope, but also current mining. I mean, slimes seems to have been a kind of headwind for a few quarters. It's something that you're talking about kind of addressing the desliming circuit at the front end, which seems to make sense. When do you think you might be able to be in a position to green light on that to kind of address the slimes issue that you're seeing at current mining and perhaps. I guess, does that desliming circuit comprise part of the $225?
Yes, the desliming circuit would comprise part of the $225. It’s an item that we expect to have to put into Wet Concentrator Plant A for mining in Nataka. The idea would be that we would then simply just move that capital forward or move them closer to present and install it earlier so that we would get the benefit of it while we're still mining Namalope before we get to Nataka. We're doing feasibility work on that desliming circuit at the minute. Sometime in 2023, we will be at a level where we can look at that as an investment decision and present it to our board.
Okay. Do you have a handle on what the CapEx could be for the desliming circuit?
It has not even gone through pre-feasibility study at this stage. Now pre-feasibility study has not been completed at this stage on it, Richard, so it would be rash to put a number on it just yet.
Yeah. Understood. Okay. Next one is just on inventories. I'm just kind of curious to your slide 23 about the excess inventory levels that you're seeing have brought down to almost nothing. Can you perhaps just elaborate on the downstream, you know, what you're seeing in the pigment producers, and then further downstream, you know, the paint companies? You know, what are you kind of hearing in terms of inventory levels across the sector as we go downstream, and are you sort of comfortable that or have you a view on kind of where we are versus sort of like a normalized level?
Just to emphasize that chart is excess inventory. It's not zero inventory, it's zero excess inventory. We have seen for the last 12-18 months a lot of the major titanium pigment manufacturers writing in their own results that their production is constrained by supply of titanium feedstocks rather than demand or production capacity. We from that gather that their inventories are low of incoming feedstock and that their finished goods inventories are also low. They haven't been saying that generally this quarter, the release of results this quarter. We get the feeling that they're facing reduced demand in the United States, particularly.
One of the major pigment manufacturers is still saying that they anticipate that through the whole of 2022, they will continue to be constrained by supply. Otherwise, we feel that it's moving to a more balanced situation. Probably seeing some finished goods inventory build up in the United States. In Europe, we don't think so. In China, we supply mainly ilmenite beneficiation plants, and they're all working flat out and have low inventories.
Okay. Understood. Thanks. Last one on capital allocation. Tony, all the best for the future, and thanks for everything. Just, I mean, looking at the dividend, you've got a net cash balance sheet. Well, on the assumption that you ship all of your volumes second half, I would expect the balance sheet moves into a net cash position. The mine is in a good position on the cost curve. The market is in a good position also, which means that you should generate decent free cash flow yields for some years to come, even though you go through a period of elevated capital as you move A.
I mean, do you think that the dividend policy is too conservative at sort of, you know, 25% payout this year? Do you think there's merit to move it higher and to really demonstrate the ability of this asset to both invest in long-term sustaining capital whilst also returning sort of a meaningful amount to shareholders?
Thanks for your comments earlier, by the way. The dividend policy, Richard, is to pay 20% of net profit after tax, and in fact, we moved that up to 25% last year. We see that as the right type of target level. Capital allocation includes a number of pieces. You've got the capital investments that we need to make that Michael has touched on and that, you know, we make every year. You've got debt, and we've got dividends. I suppose we have to balance these in the round over a number of years. Last year, we had over $100 million in aggregate between share buybacks and dividends. This year we'll be repaying for the full year over $80 million of debt.
We'll be de-gearing before we move into the big capital cycle. I guess, you know, from my perspective, what we want is a sustainable position that we're going to be able to maintain going into the future. If we move up that 25%, then, you know, it puts one of the other areas potentially under pressure, especially, Richard, as you know, Michael touched on as well, the potential for a downturn next year. You know, at this stage, and of course, it's a board decision, I think the 25% makes sense for where Kenmare is at the moment. If things work out better, then we have the ability to revisit that. I think, you know, cautiously approaching this 25% to me seems like the right level for this year. Okay.
Thanks, Tony. Thanks a lot. Cheers. Thanks.
Thanks, Richard. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad, and we'll pause for a few moments for any further questions. Your next question comes from the line of Colin Grant from Davy. Your line is open.
Good morning, everybody, and thanks for doing this call. I just have questions regarding 2023 and, you know, the growing macro risks that you've referred to. Apologies if this has been covered already, but what level of order book visibility do you have at this stage for 2023, if any? How should we think about that getting rolled forward between, say, now and the end of 2022?
We have significant volume orders for 2023. All of our Western customers operate on the basis of multi-year volume contracts with annual or twice during the year, every six months, a reset to market price. In terms of volume, we have substantial ongoing commitment to deliver in 2023. The price at which those plans are delivered at is subject to renegotiation closer to the time.
Okay. Is there any capacity to kinda lock in kinda current pricing levels with any customers? Does this involve maybe discounts or something like that?
Not really. You know, I don't believe that there's any of our customers that believe that it's appropriate at this stage to lock in the prices at these levels. You know, it's a significant risk. It would be a significant risk for them. It's not something that is gaining any traction in the market at the minute, Colin.
Thanks, Michael. In terms of just supply-demand balance, would you have any kind of estimate at this stage as to what kind of price decline we could see in 2023 if macro risks did develop? I suspect it's going to be very modest relative to the previous down cycle, but just interested in latest thoughts from you on that.
Yeah. Look, I mean, what we can do is generally gauge what the situation is with regard to supply and demand and whether it's a deficit or a surplus. Predicting exactly how that reflects in price is beyond our capacity, Colin. We have been confounded before. You can judge a general trend. We believe that in early 2023, we'll see some softening of the price. You know, exactly how much is very hard to predict.
Okay. Thanks a lot, Michael.
Thanks, Colin. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Managing Director, Michael Carvill.
Thanks, Bobby. Thanks everyone for attending the call. Thanks for your questions, guys. With that, we'll close off and have a great day, everybody. Thanks a lot.
Thanks, everybody.
Thank you.
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.