Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to MHP's first quarter 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Please note that this call is being recorded. Following the presentation, there'll be a question and answer session. I will now hand over to Anastasiya to begin the presentation.
Thank you very much, Tim. Dear stakeholders, good day to you. Thank you for joining us today at MHP's conference call, dedicated to the fourth quarter and annual results of 2023. I'm Anastasiya Sobotyuk, Director of Investor Relations and ESG Compliance. Together with Viktoria Kapelyushna, CFO of MHP, we will discuss MHP's financial and operational results for 2023. Today's call is based on a press release and financial statements released earlier today. However, during our call, we will discuss our projections and plans based on our assumptions, domestic and international trends. Please take it into consideration. We now move to page three of the presentation. A few words about market environment first. First of all, let me provide you with the update about the war, first of all.
War continues to have a major impact on company operations, and our full year 2023 performance reflects the resilience and agility of our business model and the tremendous efforts of our workforce. Irregular and frequent drone and rocket attacks against civilian, energy, and other infrastructure targets continue, presenting us with a challenging and disruptive logistical environment, driving additional war-related costs. At the date of the publication, all our production facilities in Ukraine continue to operate at close to full capacity, and our own facilities have not suffered significant physical damage. We can, of course, give no assurance that this will remain the case, and that our production facilities and the infrastructure that we use will not become a target of new attacks.
In the event of adverse operational impact, the group responds immediately, ensuring it is ready to take all actions necessary to rebuild, restore, and restart production in the shortest time possible. Some words about macroeconomic situation. Taking into account that many businesses have been adjusting to a new operational environment in Ukraine, which remained unpredictably volatile in 2023, GDP grew by over 5%, with a forecasted growth in 2024 at around 3%. CPI slowed down to 5%, compared to 2022 increase by over 26%. This year, harvest is expected to be strong at around 74 million tons. Let me now proceed with the company's results for the fourth quarter of the year. We go to slide number five of the presentation. Let me start with operational highlights for [audio distortion]
Poultry sales were driven by high exports, which increased by around 8% year-on-year, despite different logistic challenges, mainly driven by restrictions set by neighbor countries. Total share of exports out of total poultry sales volumes increased, remained relatively stable year-on-year and constituted 57%. Financial results for 2023 were following: Group's revenue increased by 14% and reached over $3 billion, with export revenue representing 60% of total revenue. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 16% to $445 million, mainly due to increased exports of poultry, increased poultry prices for processed meat, increased vegetable oil sales, and a strong performance at Perutnina Ptuj. However, this was significantly offset by a weaker performance for the agriculture operational segment. Net debt to EBITDA ratio constituted 2.47.
Let's go on slide six with key financials for the fourth quarter of 2023, which were following. Group's revenue remains relatively stable, but decreased by 5%, reaching $727 million, and adjusted EBITDA remains stable year-on-year and constituted $116 million, with EBITDA margin of 16%, mainly driven by stronger results in poultry and the European operating segment. Let's proceed on page seven of the presentation. As you can see, these are the financial results by segment. Before presenting the results, let me remind you that MHP changed presentation of segment information at the end of 2023 in order to accurately reflect the diverse nature of the group's business operations and improve the granularity of the reporting.
As of now, MHP has four business segments, such as poultry and processed meat, vegetable oil operations, agricultural operations, and European operating segment. As you can see, poultry and processed meat operations remained our key segment. The group generated the majority of total revenue, about 54% and 72% of the company's EBITDA. Vegetable oil operations generated 20% of the revenue and contributed around 18% to EBITDA. The European operating segment generated approximately 18% of total revenue and 20% of the company's EBITDA. Let us have a closer look at each business segment, and here I pass my word to Viktoria.
Thank you, Anastasiya. Good afternoon, everyone. Let's have a precise look at poultry and related operating segment performance. Slide number eight. Despite a number of difficulties due to the war in Ukraine, MHP delivered a good result in Q4 last year, thanks to a combination of market environment and enormous amount of work undertaken by the MHP team. Poultry price in Q4, both on export and domestic market, remained almost at the same level as in Q3 of 2023. Based on the assumption that international poultry prices correlate with price trend for grains, we don't expect poultry prices increasing in 2024. MHP is commonly exposed to commodity price risk. To mitigate this risk, we continue to focus more and more on non-commodity products, ready-to-eat and ready-to-cook, and follow MHP's culinary transformation strategy.
However, penetrating and increasing our share on this market requires substantial efforts and expenses today and in the near future. In Q4 2023, we continued to increase sales volume of processed meat. We focused on the most marginal products. Our strong result for the 12 months last year, mainly driven by higher sales volume of poultry meat on export market and by increase of price for processed meat. A few words about our new vegetable oil segment. Slide number nine. In 2023, we had an additional positive effect in vegetable oil operation due to increase in sales volume of vegetable oil, which was partially offset by low oil prices last year. In Q4 2023, we had a negative trend in sunflower oil prices, which led to a decrease of oil crushing margin.
We assume that margin of this segment in 2024 will remain at the level of Q4 last year. Let's move to slide number 10, agricultural operation. It is important to highlight that due to continuous rocket strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure and termination of the grain deal by Russia, export price for grain for Ukraine is significantly lower compared to the international price. Obviously, these circumstances negatively affect the profitability of MHP grain result, as well as all agri producers in Ukraine. Last year we harvested around 346,000 hectares of the land in Ukraine, and this is around 2.5 million tons of crops, 32% higher than in 2022, mainly due to the favorable weather conditions during the harvesting season. Last year, it is one of the MHP record harvests.
EBITDA, at the same time, EBITDA of agriculture operation segment in 2023, ex net of IFRS 16, was $6 million, compared to the $99 million in 2022. This result was mainly driven by significant decrease in international grain prices. We expect our agriculture segment profitability from the 2024 harvest to be close to the result of 2023. Let's proceed to slide 11. Several words about European operation segment. EBITDA of European operation segment in 2023 increased to $91 million, mainly due to increase in sales volume and price for poultry meat and poultry products. This was driven by increase in HoReCa sales channel, as well as due to increase in sales of sausages. An additional positive effect was due to decrease in grain prices, is the main component for mixed fodder production, which have reduced costs.
A few words about our cash flow and liquidity position, slide number 12. Cash flow operations before the changes in working capital was $377 million, compared to the $479 million last year. This decrease was mainly as a result of interest payment in February 2023. Part of deferred interest payment consented with creditor in March 2024. Release of working capital amount $62 million in 12 months, 2023, mostly due to return of stock of chicken meat and vegetable oil to normal levels from unusually high amount in 2022, caused by disruption in logistics due to the war activities. This has partly recovered afterwards due to the grain deal and diversification of delivery routes by group.
Lower investment in raw materials during 2023, energy supply, fertilizer, plant protection, and etc., compared to 2022, due to the relative stabilization of situation in Ukrainian economy and low risk of disruption in supply. Third reason, stable amount of trade accounts receivable compared to significant growth in sunflower oil and chicken meat receivables by the end of 2022. Total CapEx in 2023 amounted to $112 million, and mainly are related to purchasing of diesel generators to mitigate the impact of possible power outages, high investment in cost optimization and investment in culinary strategy project, maintenance and new product development, and expansion and improving and growth of Perutnina Ptuj production facility.
Regarding debt and our cash position, by the end of the year, the company's total debt was $1.5 billion, net debt $1.1 billion. As you know, there was a tender for repurchase bond 2024 in nominal amount $151 million in Q3. At the beginning of 2024, we made the second tender for repurchase bond in amount $138 million, and current outstanding bonds 2024 is $211 million. The liquidity position at the end of 2023 was $436 million in cash, $310 million of which was held by the group subsidiaries outside Ukraine. But as of today, we have our cash total position $316 million, including outside Ukraine only $120 million.
It is important to note that according to rules instituted by National Bank of Ukraine, the foreign currency proceeds of exports from Ukraine must be repatriated to Ukraine within six months of recognition, which in principle limits our ability to utilization of offshore cash for debt repayment. As of November 2023, the National Bank of Ukraine decreased the maximum settlement period from six months to three months for repatriating cash from the export of specific agricultural products, including all grains and oil. Given the current operating environment and significant uncertainty, we estimate our minimum safe cash balance at $200 million. And now, I give the floor to Anastasiya for an update and outlook.
Thank you, Viktoria. The company is not in a position to state any outlook with confidence due to the continuous risk of operating in war conditions and with major facilities in regions under assault by Russia. The heavy March and April bombings of civilian infrastructure and energy facilities were a stark reminder that the whole of the territory of Ukraine is under threat, and extensive military operations are not confined to the front line. MHP will continue to do our utmost as a team and as a business to remain strong and agile, to push innovations ever further, and to carry out our business to the highest international standards, crucial to maintaining food security and stability in Ukraine. The group will remain at the heart of our communities and support our people and their families as their needs change and the situation develops.
Let me conclude the presentation now. We are ready for discussion and your questions. Thank you. Thank you for your cooperation in advance. Team, we are ready for questions.
Thank you, Anastasiya. We will now move to the question and answer section. If you would like to ask a question, please press star two on your phone and wait to be prompted. If you're dialed in by web, you can type your question in the box provided or request to ask a voice question. We have a couple of questions. Our first question comes from Stella Cridge from Barclays. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Hi there. Afternoon, everybody, many thanks for all of the updates. I was wondering if you could just give us an idea of what you're thinking about in terms of CapEx spending in 2024, kind of key projects that you'd be looking at, and perhaps, you know, any expectations around working capital, that would be great. And secondly, I wanted to ask, when you have fully drawn the $400 million DFI facilities, could you let us know what the amortization profile of those facilities will be and the final maturity date? That would be great.
First of all, thank you. Yeah, first of all, thank you for your question. Regarding our forecast and our budget for 2024, you understand it's very difficult to predict, regarding our financial result. Yeah, based on current situation, we expect that our financial result will be around $400 million. Our CapEx, which we announced this year for 2024, around $300 million. Yeah, because we continue to invest money in maintenance CapEx. Maintenance CapEx is very, very important for us, to remain, and to provide maintenance and reconstruction of all our facilities. Yeah, and we continue our investment in our strategy regarding the Ukrainian company, because we would like to sell and produce more and more non-commodity products, both for export and for Ukraine.
We are continuing to increase our capacity in Ptuj. Sorry, yes, in our European facility. Regarding working capital, we don't expect. We expect investment around $30 million, maybe $40 million, because we always have some uncertainty regarding VAT tax refund. Our investment in working capital, it will be depends what volume of grain, especially sunflower seed and soya seed, we would like to have by the end of the year. Our base scenario, around $30 million-$50 million. And regarding maturity of our DFI and amortization. Our loan for DFI for five years from current date, from today, and regarding maturity, we will pay semi-annual repayment.
Thank you very much. That's great. So is it, it would basically be kind of 400 divided by, so it would be equal payments, over, over those years? Is that right?
Correct.
Correct. Correct
Great.
Yeah, $80 million.
Great. Thank you for that. Can I just clarify, this $300 million CapEx number that you gave, does that include some of these smaller acquisitions that you've done as well, that you reported today?
Yeah, yeah. It is the total. Our CapEx includes the small acquisition. You're right.
Oh, okay. That's great. Many thanks for that.
Thank you.
Okay, thank you. Our next question comes from Himanshu Porwal at Seaport Global. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. Thank you very much for the presentation. Very quick question on the liquidity. So the $300 million liquidity that you mentioned is sitting outside of Ukraine, does that include the DFI loan that you have, which will be utilized for the 2024 maturities, or that is separate from what is to be utilized for this repayment? And if you can just again clarify that number once again, because I think there were two or three numbers that were floating around. That's it. Thank you.
Yeah, yeah. No, no, this, our liquidity outside in Ukraine, and our liquidity, no, does not in, does not consist, from DFI. Yeah, from our DFI, because, yes, we will receive this money in near future, in yes, in few days. Yeah.
Just so, as of today, you have
The second question
As of today, you have, like, $316 million sitting outside of Ukraine?
Without this. Yeah, without.
Without this.
Yeah, without. Especially, I told that outside in Ukraine, today, we have only $120 million.
Mm-hmm.
This sole loan is mine, maybe is the lowest level, is the lowest level of our liquidity during the last three years. Yeah? Because I. No, it does not include $180 million from DFI.
Okay. So going forward, I mean, depending on the NBU decision, I mean, you would still be able to use these effects to service your coupon on the future other bonds, like 2026 and the 2029s, and come, say, 2026 maturities, they should be available. So any plans for
Yeah
buying back any of these 2026 maturities once you are sorted with the 2024s? Is that something you plan to do?
Yeah. Yeah, you're completely right. Yeah, maybe or maybe I did not tell you, but we have the now real problem with current regulation of NBU. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah, to provide service for our bond. Yeah? Yeah, it is, you know, we see this problem because you remember that, yeah, we cannot pay interest rate. Yeah. We cannot pay... Yeah, we cannot pay from Ukraine into coupon. Yeah. It is, yeah, this is a problem. We will have some discussion with National Bank about- Mm-hmm ... yeah, how to- Changes ... changes. Potential changes. Yeah, yeah, changes this rule, but anyway, it is a real problem. Mm-hmm. Is a potential, yes, a problem, how we would service our bond. Mm-hmm.
No, but given that you already have cash outside of Ukraine, so you can use that to service the coupon on the upcoming maturities, right? That should be
Yeah, but our cash outside in Ukraine, very low level. I told you, now we have only $120, yeah? But in near future, we need to repay our bond. Yes, we received, yeah, from DFI, but yeah, level of cash is very low.
Okay, so as of now, it has come down to $120 million, right? Cash outside of Ukraine.
Low, yes, exactly, but after the repayment Eurobond, our cash outside in Ukraine will be around $60 million.
Okay, understood. That's all for me. Thank you.
Okay, thank you. Just a reminder, if you have a question, please press star two on your phone and wait to be prompted. We'll just give it a few more moments for some more questions to come in. Okay, we have a question from Natalia from Dragon Capital. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you very much for the presentation, and congratulations on the solid results. If I may, I would like to please clarify a couple of numbers. If I understood correctly, the company's current cash is $316 million, including $120 million outside of Ukraine. Is it correct?
Yes, it's correct.
Mm-hmm. Yes, Natalia, it's correct.
Thank you. You also mentioned this year's financial results of $400 million. Can you please confirm if it's EBITDA excluding IFRS 16 for this year?
Yeah. Yeah, you're right.
Mm-hmm.
Because we will. But it's approximately, and yeah,
Mm-hmm.
It's very difficult to predict, yeah? You know
Mm-hmm.
what, what.
Mm-hmm, mm-hmm.
environment.
Perfect. Thank you very much. Just small clarification. So company does plan to repay its 2024 notes, like, next week with the remaining DFI financing?
Yeah, it's correct.
Mm-hmm, perfect. And just small operational question, please. Based on company's reports, it appears that poultry exports in Q4 have declined by around, like, 12%, or, I'm sorry, 15%, quarter-on-quarter. Can you please elaborate a little bit on the poultry export trends during the last quarter, last year, and probably some early estimates from first quarter this year? Thank you very much.
Yes, total out, because last year, to be honest, we exported. I will explain. At the beginning of 2023, we have the big store, big stock
Mm-hmm
in chicken meat, and that is why, yes, our exports 2024, it will be slightly lower by approximately 20,000-30,000 lower compared to the 2023. Because in 2023, we exported not just meat which we produced in 2023
Mm-hmm
and meat which we had in our stock at the beginning of 2023.
Mm-hmm, perfect. Thank you. And should we expect some recovery from that level in Q1 of 2024, or
Mm-hmm
level of last quarter would be, like, the best guidance for most recent quarter? Thank you.
So, no, it is approximately 5.7% lower than 2023.
Mm-hmm. Perfect. Thank you very much.
Great, thank you. Our next question comes from Dmitry Ivanov from Jefferies. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Hello, can you hear me?
Yes, absolutely. Yes, we can hear you.
Yeah, thank you very much for the presentation and some additional color. I think, like, again, like, you like on the cash position number, right? So basically, cash went down by around $130 million from the end of the previous year, right? And could you kind of maybe provide, like, key items that contributed to the decrease in cash position? Was it, like, due to working capital increase or CapEx, et c? So any kind of breakdown would be helpful for us to understand the decrease in cash position. Like, on the second question, I think, like, you already answered it, but I would like to double-check.
Like, let's say, provided that you utilize this facility with DFIs, what would be their expected repayment schedule, including these DFIs and other loans? So because you also have other loans, what like, like, let's say, expected principal payments in the next 12 months? I would like just to confirm that, like, these payments under DFI facilities are not subject to NBU restrictions. So basically, you can use onshore cash to service and amortize these principal facilities. So, like, the second question around, second question around, expected amortization and, DFI repayment. Thank you very much.
Mm-hmm. Thank you for your question. I will start from the last question. Yeah, you're completely right. Regarding DFI facilities, yes, we can pay from Ukraine, repay this loan, this loans from Ukraine without any problems.
Yeah. Regarding your question, why, how it decreased our liquidity position, yeah, during the four months, yeah, yes, you're completely right. One of the reasons, yeah, we provide investment in working capital, because, yes, so in campaign, we bought a lot of fertilizer, it is usual at the beginning of the year, yeah. We have investment in working capital regarding our farming business. The second, we repaid, or we repay coupon, yeah, yes, during this period, and we, decrease, yeah, we repay our short-term credit, but not significantly. Yeah, and the biggest part of this, we, and we had the in January tender bond, yeah, tender bonds. Bond tenders, yeah. It is the reason why our position decreased by $100 million.
Understood. And just to clarify, because you mentioned, like, the latest offshore cash position is $120 million, and it expected to go down to $60 million after this repayment on the 24th. So just to make sure, what will be the amount of DFI facilities utilized after the. So I think it's, it will be below $400 million, right? So it won't be like $400 million.
You know, maybe, yeah, yeah. First of all, I explain, yeah, my explanation was about our total liquidity position, about $400 million, because at the beginning of the year, it was $400 million, now around $300 million. Regarding our, why we decreased our. Please, please repeat. Yeah, yeah, your question about the. Yeah, I understand your question about our liquidity position outside in Ukraine, yeah?
No, no, just amount of DFI facility, which will be utilized after you complete 2024. So because you will use, like, $60 million of your own cash position offshore, and what will be like
I need to add, because you remember that, yeah, you remember that we attracted DFI facility not for full amount of our bonds, and we will use our cash position. Yeah, you're completely right.
Okay. Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you.
Okay, thank you. Just a final reminder, if you do have any questions, please press star two. We have a follow-up question from Stella at Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi there again, many thanks. Yeah, I wanted to ask, you know, after you address the upcoming bonds, what are you thinking around your options for the next maturities later on? Do you think it might be possible to attract more DFI funding, or do you think you would be looking towards the market to come up with some sort of extension? Just wanted to hear what you were thinking just now.
Okay. Thank you for your question. Yes. Yes, I will. To be honest with you, yes, I have some headache what I will do it with 2026, but unfortunately, I don't have a now yes clear plan.
For this, yeah, for this bond. Yeah, I understand. It is my, the biggest, my headache, but unfortunately, until today, no, I don't have clear plan. We will think.
Okay. I appreciate the update. Thanks.
Thank you.
Okay, thank you. I'm not seeing any more questions, so perhaps I could hand back to Anastasiya and Viktoria for closing remarks. Sorry, we have one more question. We have a question from Yana at BCP Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for presentation and taking the call. Question, just two quick clarifications. The connection was not great, so I'm just double-checking. Decline in sales, this is because you last year sold additional stock that was accumulated from 2022. Is that correct?
You're asking
Hello?
About chicken meat again, right?
No. We're just seeing that there is a decline in sales year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. So that,
No, no, no.
Comes from.
Food sales.
Yeah, you ask, you ask, you asked us about export sales, yeah, year- to- year?
If you
Yeah, poultry and just sales to third parties, like, like numbers.
Yeah, I know, but no decline. If you compare a sales volume
Yeah.
In 2023, we sold by 23,000 more than 2022. My explanation was about the sales volume of 2024. Yeah, for export in 2024, we will sold less than 400,000 tons, because last year, we sold approximately 25,000 from the stock, which we
Right.
Which we got at the beginning of the year.
Okay, so yesterday was an additional volume from the stock from the year 2022.
Yeah, it was less. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Thank you so much. The second question on DFI facility, is it fully utilized or you have something left, once this repayment goes through, for the 2024 bond?
And yet, not fully utilized today, but in a few days, we will utilize additional 160.
You have $160 million remaining from DFI facility?
Yes. Yes. Yeah.
Okay. And would you be able to apply to similar repayments of 26, or do they have specific uses for specific CapEx, or it's not determined yet?
No, no, no. Yes, yeah. This amount we will use for repayment 2024.
Okay.
Regarding 2024
So once the 2024 bonds are repaid, there will be, DFI facility will be fully utilized?
Yes, you completely right. Yes.
Okay, understood.
Yes, of course.
Thank you for the time.
Mm-hmm. Thank you.
Okay, great. Thank you. So I think that concludes the Q&A. So yes, I'll hand back over to Anastasiya and Viktoria for closing remarks. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Tim. Thank you very much, everybody, for the meeting and discussions. Of course, in case you have further questions, you know my address, you can give me a call. We'll be in touch, and have a nice day. Bye.
Yeah, thank you. Thank you. Bye.
That concludes the call for today. Thank you and have a nice day.