Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I would like to welcome you to MHP's 4Q 2022 financial results call on the 11th of April, 2023. At this time, all participant lines are on listen only mode. The format of the call today will be presentation by MHP management and IR team, followed by a question- and- answer session. Without further ado, I now like to pass the line to the MHP team. Anastasiya, the floor is yours.
Thank you very much, Michael. Dear shareholders, good morning. Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us today for MHP's conference call. I'm Anastasiya Sobotyuk, Director of Investor Relations and International Communications of MHPC. Together with Viktoria Kapelyushnaya, CFO of the company, we are glad to present you MHP's financials and of course, operational results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2022. Today's call is based on information released earlier today. However, during our call, we will discuss our projections and plans based on our assumptions, domestic and international trends. Please take it into consideration. Now we move to page three of our presentation. Let me start from a general overview. 2022 was extremely challenging for Ukraine and for all businesses in the country. The war started at the end of February with no understanding how it could progress and to what extent.
We immediately set out our priorities at the time to care for our people, to maintain food security and to support Ukraine. Operational challenges for MHP were very significant. The mobilization of employees, the disruption of supply chains, a temporary decrease in the supply of some goods, including vitamins and minerals to produce feed and plant production goods, including pesticides. The physical disruption of energy and transport infrastructure and the temporary occupation of some territories. The war in Ukraine continues. It is more localized now, mainly in the east and in the south of the country. However, there is a significant level of uncertainty how the war will develop and when it will finish. Moreover, it is highly unlikely that MHP as well as any other business in Ukraine, can foresee a size of adverse impact on its operations, which can potentially occur at any time.
Macroeconomic situation continued to look very challenging in 2022. GDP in 2022 decreased by around 29%, while next year, taking into account that active hostility is finished by the end of this year, the economy will begin to recover. We all keep our fingers crossed. Inflation ratio was at 27% in 2022, and it is expected to be at around 19% in 2023. Still extremely high. The unemployment level is still very high, reaching 26% in 2022. It is expected to remain almost at the same level in 2023. There is still a significant amount of people staying outside of Ukraine, up to 8 million as of today for obvious reasons.
The currency ratio is expected to continue to devalue and will be at around UAH 42 per $1 in 2023. Let me now proceed with the company's results for the year. We go to slide number five of the presentation. I will start with operational highlights for the year. Driven by a decrease in capacity utilization, poultry sales decreased by 5% and reached around 666,000 tons. Following the operational plans and taking into account manageable situation with export sales, MHP managed to reach almost 100% capacity utilization by the end of 2022.
Facing significant challenges in logistics during the first three months since the beginning of the war, poultry exports from Ukraine decreased by 8% to around 368,000 tons, with a significant share of transshipments made through the territory of the European Union to the MENA and African countries. Total share of exports out of total poultry sales volumes decreased from 52%. 2022 financial results are following. Group's revenue increased by 11% and reached over $2.6 billion, with export revenue representing 61% of total revenue, mainly driven by higher export prices for poultry meat, partially offset by lower volumes and higher volumes of vegetable oils sales. Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 41% to $384 million.
That was a real and direct impact of the war on our business when MHP team was working 24/7 to offset war impact. The decrease in EBITDA is mainly driven by substantially weaker results in grain growing operations segment. Though, as a result of a significant increase in production cost. Prices of fertilizers and plant protection materials, for example, increased by over 40%. Lower grain prices in Ukraine because of the logistic challenges. For example, ports are partially operational even now and increased logistic costs as well as lower yields compared to 2021 harvest. As a result of the war, MHP had over $69 million of war-related expenses, mainly as a result of insolvency of MHP partners in Ukraine, who because of the war, lost their assets or ability to operate, support to communities, written off inventories and biological assets.
I think we can now proceed to the key financials for the fourth quarter of 2022, and we go on slide number six of the presentation. Despite extremely challenging operational environment in the fourth quarter of 2022, the group's revenue increased by 6% and reached $766 million, with export revenue representing 64%. Due to the launch of the additional sunflower crushing facility in October 2022, MHP managed to increase production and exports of sunflower oil by 21% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 16% year-on-year to $109 million with EBITDA margin of 14%, significantly down year-on-year because of the war disruptions.
Let's go on slide number seven of the presentation, which shows our financial results by segment, and this information is for the total 2022. Poultry operations remains our key segment. The group generated the majority of total revenue around 71% and 70% of the group's EBITDA. Grain segment generated 6% of total revenue and 24% of company's EBITDA. Meat processing and other agricultural operations generated just 5% of consolidated revenue with around 2% contribution to EBITDA. Please take into account that in April 2022, MHP closed its meat processing facility in the Donetsk region, which resulted in significant decrease in meat processing operations of MHP Ukraine. The European trading segment generated 18% of total revenue and actually around the same amount contribution to the company's EBITDA.
Let's have a closer look at each business segment, and I would like Victoria to continue the presentation.
Thank you, Anastasia. Good afternoon, everyone. Let's have a precise look at poultry segment performance, slide number eight. Needless to say that during 2022, MHP has been facing complex challenges and disruption in operation in sales and logistics as a result of war in Ukraine. Since the beginning of the war, MHP had to cut production by around 15%, and then only at the end of first quarter this year, MHP managed to reach full capacity in poultry production again. Taking into account the enormous number of attacks on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine during the fourth quarter and the first quarter 2023, which can continue in the future, there is always a risk of potential decrease in poultry capacity again. The impact of the war in Ukraine remains unclear at this time and can change seriously, quickly, and without notice, as you understand.
Despite this number of difficulties due to the war in Ukraine, MHP deliver a quite good result in 2022. We already see some challenges ahead. I will talk about these trends further in presentation. The main driver of our strong result in 2022 is the 40% of annual export price increase across all the market that was particular negatively offset by increased logistic costs due to the war and lower export volume. Additional positive effect on the cost of cake and feed for poultry production was due to the favorable ratio of price for sunflower seeds and oil. Export price increased significantly during the second quarter and third quarter of the last year. Due to the change because.
Due to the change in the economic environment in EU and U.K. and increased competition in the MENA region, from September 2022, poultry price across almost all export markets started to decrease, which resulted in more than 11% decrease in price in last quarter, in Q4 2022. At current price in EU and MENA region, lower than in Q4 last year, low by 10%. At the same time, sales of poultry meat in Ukraine, despite of substantial decrease in population, migration and disposable income, high unemployment rate with a weak labor market mentioned by Anastasia earlier remained stable in Q4 last year-to-year and quarter- into- quarter. Average poultry price in US dollar however decreased substantially by 22% year-to-year, driven mainly by depreciation of Ukrainian hryvnia. MHP is regularly exposed to commodity price risk.
To mitigate this risk, we continue to focus more and more on non-commodity product, ready to eat, ready to cook. However, penetrating and increasing of our share of this market requires a lot of effort and expenses as today and in the near future. Let's move to the slide nine, grain growing operations. It is important to highlight that despite high prices for grain of international market, export price for grain from Ukraine is significantly low compared to the international price due to logistics substantially increased as a result of the war in Ukraine and challenging unstable logistics and regulation grain deal. Obviously, this negatively affects the profitability of MHP as well as all agri producers in Ukraine. Moreover, bad weather condition in regions where our lands are located, especially in Vinnytsia and Cherkasy of 2022, negatively affected our harvesting campaign.
This has result in low corn and sunflower yield compared to one in 2021 year by corn - 28%, sunflower seed - 22%. EBITDA of grain segment net IFRS 16 last year constitutes $93 million compared to the $340 million previously in 2021, mainly due to the lower yield and grain prices. I would like to note that part of EBITDA in 2022 was attributable to positive impact of hryvnia functional currency on the group farming companies, where hryvnia denominated expenses declined due to the currency devaluation against the US dollar. Let's proceed to the slide 10. Meat processing business financial performance deteriorated significantly due to suspension of Ukrainian Bacon operations in the west region in April 2022. Partially, the equipment has been relocated to other region in Ukraine.
Additional negative impact was due to significant decrease in demand for HoReCa segment during the last year. As today, MHP produced around 1,000 tons of meat processing products per month. Before the war, we produce and we sell almost 3,000 tons per month. Let's proceed to the slide 11. Several words about Perutnina Ptuj. Growth in capacity in Serbia and Croatia resulted in 16% increase in poultry sales year-on-year, while EBITDA was stable year-on-year since the increase in sales volume and price was set by higher cost of production and selling general and administrative expenses. The devaluation of euro against the dollar had additional negative impact on the Perutnina's financial results. Slide number 12. A few words about our cash flow and liquidity position in 2022.
Cash flow from operation before changes in working capital amount $480 million, higher compared to the EBITDA due to non-cash adjustment mainly related to IFRS 31 standard. Cash from operating activities was mainly investment in working capital, mostly related, first of all, an increase in trade account receivables and stock of sunflower oil need due to longer settlement period as a result of increased delivery period as well as due to increased production sunflower oil. This investment around $150 million in 2022. Secondly, higher volumes of raw materials were accumulate to ensure confidence in smooth operation of our factory as well as the need of sowing campaign. The main investments were direct to the purchase, non-grain, veterinarian components, packaging materials, gas and fuel reserve, fertilizer, plant and protection product, and seeds.
Total amount of this, around $150 million too. This high investment in working capital was caused mainly by war. We don't expect that realize of working capital while the war in Ukraine continues. Total CapEx last year was $160 million, mainly related to. First, competition of projects that we started in 2021, such as oil crushing plant and others. Secondly, some logistic projects where bought barge and railway wagon. Generators, I'm sure that everybody understands that we need to buy generators to ensure the smooth operation of our factories, and we will continue to purchase generators at the beginning of this year. Fourth, maintenance and new equipment. Regarding debt. At the end of the period, the company total debt was nearly $1.5 billion. Net debt about $1.2 million.
Using the opportunity, I would like to thank all our Eurobond holders and banks. Our tight cooperation, support, and partnership during the difficult times of Ukraine allow to MHP to receive our consent for 270 days interest payment extension, which the company met in full and on time at the end of 2022, at the beginning of this year. At the same time, we have now received the approval for prolongation of uncommitted lines from all banks till August and December 2023. Second time since the beginning of the war. We remain a responsible partner, and we have paid premium coupons to the date. The operating environment remain volatile, extremely challenging and unpredictable, including the NBU restriction regarding capital movements outside of Ukraine for the all Ukrainian legal entities and individuals.
The liquidity position at the end of the year was $300 million in cash, mostly in dollars. Given the current operation environment and significant uncertainty, we estimate our minimum safe cash balance at $200 million. Now I give the floor to Anastasia for update and outlook.
Thank you very much, Victoria. Let me start with an update regarding the war in Ukraine. We all understand the situation remains highly unpredictable and uncertain. The war continues. Missile attacks are likely to continue with the potential harm to the infrastructure of Ukraine. Hopefully, MHP's facilities will continue to operate as usual. Prices in several poultry markets, including the Middle East and EU, have softened substantially, and they've been softening since the end of 2022, and they are expected to remain stable, at least due to excess supply and difficult economic environment in different parts of the world. However, trends are subject to the avian influenza spread and stabilization of economic situation worldwide. There are upsides and downsides here for sure. Vegetable oil prices since the beginning of the year decreased substantially.
We can see that internationally, 20%-25% decrease and are likely to remain at this level through 2023, as the market is overloaded by sunflower oil supplies from Russia and saturated EU market from 2022. Grain prices are decreasing worldwide by around 10%. Have decreased by around 10% since the beginning of the year and even more they decreased in Ukraine, driven by the problems with logistics, compounded by the ongoing effects of the war in Ukraine. As of today, we do not foresee grain price increase in the nearest months, taking into account strong harvest of soy and corn in Brazil particularly. However, the landscape is subject to change. It may change later this year with the new harvest. A few words about Group Neftochim.
It continues its further production growth in the Balkans, following the group's strategy of cleaner transformation. Let me stop here. We will be glad to answer your questions.
Thank you very much for the presentation. We'll now be moving to the Q&A part of the call. If you have any questions and you're dialed in via the telephone, please press star two right now. Star two for voice questions. If you have any text questions, you may also type them. I acknowledge the two text questions received from JR Investimentos and PWP, which we will get to shortly. Thank you. Our first question, voice question comes from Mr. Daniel Vaskovich from Barclays. Please go ahead, sir. Your line is open.
Very much for the call. You mentioned that you see your cash level that you would need is around $200 million. I mean, do you expect that your current cash position is going to be sufficient for your working capital needs this summer?
Yes. Thank you for your question. Yes, especially when current situation is a lot of challenges, everybody understands the minimum $200 and current our position $300 is more or less acceptable.
Thanks. Could you give me an idea of, you know, how much of your cash is held internationally and available for debt service or whether you have offshoring of cash when needed?
Yes, we try, yes. To be honest, yes, we try to keep the most, the bigger part of our cash outside. At the same time, you understand that we have the strict requirement during 180 days to return this amount to Ukraine. We provide a lot of export, but we need during the 180 days to return money to Ukraine. Now we keep 80% of total our cash abroad, but at the same time, we have this obligation.
Okay. Thanks. Then finally, just maybe on the logistics of your exports, you know, you've obviously done a very good job of completely changing your export model. Do you think there's scope for improvement, you know, in terms of like working capital or the costs of the current export model, or do you feel like you've got it quite well optimized now?
You're questioning about how we optimize our logistics, yeah, after the war, yeah. This is your question, yeah?
Yeah.
especially regarding... Well, yeah. If you... Very interesting question. If you ask me what is the price of logistics or price for us, especially logistics of meat, was one year ago in April last year and in May, to be honest, it seems to me 50%, not 50%, maybe 30% higher than today. At the same time, current price of logistics of meat doesn't matter to Europe, if you speak, or if you speak about Africa, MENA region. Current our price of logistics approximately 70%-90% higher compared to the before the war. You understand my point, yeah? We optimize price compared at the beginning of... Yes, slightly optimize maybe 20%-25%. At the same time, current logistics price is higher if you compare to the before the war by 70%-90%. Hello?
Thanks very much.
Okay, thank you very much. We will now be moving to the next question. Next question comes from Miss Erica Ive from MetLife Investment Management. Please go ahead, ma'am. Your line is open.
Hello. Thank you for taking my question. I got just a follow-up on the 180 days that you have to repatriate cash in Ukraine. When is actually the deadline? I mean, when, because we keep saying about this 180 days, and it's quite a while we keep saying that. Realistically, when are you supposed to repatriate all cash in Ukraine? Bye.
You need to understand that every month we provide exports. Every month we must repatriate cash which we exported over six months ago. You understand? It's a cycle.
Okay.
Every month we export. Yeah. Every month we exported 40,000 of sunflower oil. Every month we exported approximately 1,000 of meat and, yeah.
All else being equal, if you have carried on, paying coupons so far, you reckon that you will continue paying coupons even if you got still a six-month lag, time lag?
No. Yes, I think that, No. Yeah, it would be. Because you understand that we paid until today, since the start of the war, we paid three coupons.
Yeah.
Not only we paid three coupons, total amount $100 million, approximately $150 million, and received special permission. Not just special permission for MHP, is a permission for all companies in Ukraine to pay some interest rates outside in Ukraine only for one coupon. To be honest, $100 million we paid as coupon, yeah, to bondholder through this revenue, through this cycle.
Okay. Understood. In terms of.
In terms, yeah.
Yeah.
No. Please carry on.
Okay. In terms of the actual survey that you sent out a while ago about the suspension of coupon payments. Is there gonna be any follow-up around it? You were basically assessing investment investors' sentiment and then ideas around suspension of coupon payments.
No. Yeah, I suppose, yeah, we do the best, yeah. I think that, yes, we will, yeah. At the same time, yeah, we ask about the permissions from our NBU, yeah, again. Yeah. We will try to pay this revenue. Yes. We will do everything to fulfill our obligation.
I see. Basically, I seem to understand that basically you are able to continue paying coupon just because you've asked a special permission. Is it correct?
It is the one way, yes. One way if we ask, yeah. We would like to ask the special permission. To be honest, I have a lot of concerns that our NBU provide the permission to MHP, because I know the situation with other companies who ask about this permission with NBU. At the same time, yes, we can. Maybe we will try to pay this coupon, yeah, next coupon from revenue. We expect and we hope that war and situation will improved, yeah, and war will stop, and regulation of NBU will change.
I see. All right. Thank you. That's all for me.
Okay, thank you very much. We'll be moving to the last voice question before we proceed to the text questions. Next question is from Joe Miranda from Red Intel. Please go ahead, sir. Your line is open.
Thank you very much for taking my call. I was just seeking some clarity following up from the previous question. Am I right to understand then that you're not intending to further restructure or reschedule the 2024 Eurobond commitments, either with regards to future coupon payment or the principal repayments, and likewise with your longer dates of the Eurobonds? Thank you.
Thank you for your question. Yeah. No, as you understand, it's difficult to forecast how the situation will develop in Ukraine. But at the same time, our priority, you understand that we continue to operate as efficiently as possible across all business segment, taking into account war situation in Ukraine. Company understands that 2022 bond maturity is one important question on the agenda, and we will be able to address it appropriately during this year.
I see. You intend to be able to repay the coupon and the principal, next year for the 2024s. Is that right?
No, no, no. Sorry, sorry. That's my mistake. Yes, exactly. 2024, not 2022. Yes. I talk about the maturity of bond 2024. Yes. Yes.
I see. Thank you.
Yeah.
Thank you very much. We'll now be moving to the text questions of the call. First question from Jesse, from DAR Capital. Thank you for taking my question. What kind of developments have you seen so far in the poultry exports market with regards to demand and pricing?
Sorry. Excuse me. Please repeat about poultry export market.
Sure. What kind of developments have you seen this year in the poultry export market?
Okay.
With regards to demand and pricing?
As I told in presentation, what we see right now, especially regarding price of export market. What we see, current price in Europe, if you speak regarding the fillet. If you speak about the small chicken in MENA, current price low compared to the even price of the first quarter. Lower compared to the fourth quarter, approximately by 10%. If you compare in the first quarter last year, price low, maybe approximately 7%. As I told in presentation, the maximum at the peak of price of export market in Europe and in MENA, in Saudi Arabia region, were during the summer last year. It was unrealistic high price, that is why we received and we achieved so high result in poultry segment last year. Now, price, unfortunately, low.
Our expectation, we think that maybe this price will continue the same level. We hope that price of chicken in these two very important region will not decrease more.
Okay, thank you very much. Next question comes from Constantine, from Upstrop Capital. There's a few questions here. I'll just read them. The first question, what is your thinking on the 2024 bond maturity? The second question, could you please confirm cash position as of 31st of March, 2023?
By the end of March, our cash position was completely very similar as the beginning of January, around $300 million. Regarding maturity our bond 2022, we understand and we think that bond maturity 2024 is a crucial question for us and crucial question for our agenda. I'm sure that we will be able to address it appropriately this year.
Okay, thank you. Continuing with the questions from Constantine. Could you please give an update on the latest NBU regulation and the ability to pay coupon in the second half of 2023? Prices are softening. Do you have scope to improve volumes, and do you see a reduction of cost pressure?
Your question about the two parts, one of the regarding payment coupon in the second half of 2023, and the second part of question about cost pressure. Please clarify. I did not catch.
Um-
Just question about coupon?
Yeah. The second question is, prices are softening. Do you have scope to improve volumes as the prices are softening, and do you see a reduction of the cost pressure?
Regarding the coupon, we try because MHP, I would like to emphasize that MHP always was and is a reliable partner for all our partners. We will do everything to pay coupon in 2023. We will do everything. At the same time, we have some restrictions. We discussed about a lot 10 minutes ago. It's very difficult if situation looking. I think that we can and we do everything to pay this coupon. Unfortunately, I understand that. I told this a lot of times. We continue to live during the war. Unfortunately, it's very difficult and predict what will be in the second half of the year.
You remember that just only three months ago, only four months ago, yeah, we had the big problems, sometimes the big problems with electricity and a lot of different, yeah, situation. Unfortunately, it's very difficult to predict what we will have in the second half.
Okay. Thank you very much. We'll move on to the next text question, I acknowledge the voice questions from Dragon, MetLife, and JFS. We will come back to you shortly. This text question comes from Eli from PWP. What is the estimated value of assets of Perutnina Ptuj, and what is the outstanding balance of its loans? I think you mentioned it to be EUR 140 million on the previous earnings call.
Yes. Regarding Perutnina Ptuj, I cannot say exactly figures about this because I don't see right now the balance of Perutnina Ptuj because you understand, I described it without consolidation balance. Total loan in Perutnina Ptuj, it seems to me, $140 million, around this. $150 million.
Okay. Thank you very much. The next text question comes from Mr. Magnus from Borg. Can you please explain how 2021 Adjusted EBITDA in grain was higher than revenue?
It is not something new. If you look at our historical figures, if you look at P&L during all our history, yes, always. Not always, but it seems to me 90% our EBITDA higher than our revenue because here the revenue, two-third part. The biggest part of grain we consume internally in poultry segment. You can see the revenue, this revenue inter-segment if you look at our financial report in segment in notices which describe segments. That's why, our EBITDA in grain segment, from all our operations, revenue only two-third part.
Okay. Thank you very much. Next question comes from Joseph from JR Investments. Two questions. Thank you for keeping the company running in this extreme and difficult situation. My first question is, what is your plan in order to pay the bonds that matures in 2024? The second question is, what was the cost of energy before the war, and what is it now and the tendency for the future?
Regarding with the bond 2022, I... 2024, sorry. I talked about this twice, yeah, because unfortunately, I cannot add something new. I talked about. It's very, very important question to ask. Regarding the price of utility, last year, the price of gas... Last year, yeah. Price of gas increased by twice. Electricity plus 30%-40%, and fuel around 30%. Compared to the price 2021. Compared to the price. Yeah, price of utility 2021.
Thank you very much. We will now be moving to the voice questions. The next question is from Mr. Dmitry Ivanov from JFS International. Please go ahead, sir.
Hi, Victoria, Anastacia. Can you hear me?
Yes, yes. We hear you.
Yes. Yeah. Hi, thank you for the presentation. I have a few questions. First, on this extension of bank loans to August, December. Could you give us a bit more color on this extension? What was the amount of bank loans that were extended to August, December this year? Let's imagine for now, for simplicity, that there is a status quo situation in Ukraine. How do you see repayment of these loans? Would you ask for extension or would you use cash offshore to repay these bank loans when they're due in August, December 2023? That's the first question from me.
Yes, total amount of this loan, approximately $150 million. We prolongate it to August, December, depends on banks. You know, we will try again to ask about prolongation. Because as I told during the presentation, this year we invest more than $300 million in working capital, and we will keep this amount in working capital until the end of the war. That is why we are doing it money.
Understood. Understood. Thank you very much. Like this, kind of qualification on working capital, like invest of $340 million in 2022, and, you mentioned that you want to maintain this level of working capital in absolute amount. Does it mean that, like at least, expectation for this year, again, like, I think we're talking about status quo scenario, that there wouldn't be like a negative working capital impact this year. At least it will be like a working capital neutral this year or something else. It would be great to have color on working capital changes, this year.
Yeah.
In your-
Yeah. Thank you for your question because, yeah, it's a very big issue regarding reimbursement VAT. You understand that our export around 65%, almost 70% of total our revenue. Total reimbursement of VAT, which we should, and we forecast that we get from government $150 million. Yeah, for me it's a very big issue because last year we had investment in VAT, but approximately $30 million. For this year it's a very big issue, and unfortunately, I cannot predict it. Yeah. I'm sure that, try to be conservative, and I think that minimum $50 million-$70 million maybe we will have investment in working capital. Mostly related, and the big part of this related to VAT reimbursement. I see how situation now on the market-
Mm-hmm.
With VAT reimbursements and... No. We will see or maybe war will continue or, you know, will stop.
Mm-hmm.
Yeah. In that case, we will not have any problems with reimbursement received.
Understood. Yeah. Thank you. Basically, the item that might affect your cash flows is VAT reimbursement, which is, in the worst case, maybe $50 million-$70 million impact on working capital free cash flow this year.
Yeah. Yeah.
Okay.
Yeah.
And, uh-
VAT issue, VAT or maybe something. Yeah.
Understood.
Mm-hmm.
If you could give us some guidance on the capital program, CapEx, this year, again, like in a base case status quo scenario that would be very helpful.
Oh, sorry. You're questioning about CapEx, yeah?
Oh, capital expenditure. CapEx. Right. Correct.
Capital expenditure. Capital expenditure this year, our expectation, $150 million-$170 million. I will explain. I understand it's a big amount, but we need to understand why. First of all, as I told during the presentation, some approximately $30 million, $25 million, $30 million related to war situation because. In the first quarter we bought some generation, generators. generators and some we need to build some social permission. You know, for employees. we buy some logistics. As very big amount of maintenance, approximately $70 million. $70 million, you know, around up to $70 million our maintenance. CapEx regarding all our businesses and together with businesses in Berdiansk. Third is our CapEx related to our culinary strategy.
I will explain what is it. As I told, yeah, we need and we must produce more non-commodity product. As I told, price of commodity chicken is very fluctuated. When we produce more non-commodity, Sure. Yeah. We can insurance of, this defluctuated. This CapEx around $40 million. Yeah. Total CapEx, as I told previously, approximately $160 million-$170 million.
Understood. Understood. Thank you very much. Just one small clarification regarding your offshore cash. You mentioned like 80% was offshore cash balance, which is like approximately $240 million. Just to clarify, what's the proportion of cash balance in this number, like approximately? Maybe you have like rough estimation, like absolute amount.
Yeah. approximately, from 80%, approximately $70 million, $60 million.
Thank you very much. I appreciate your answers. Thank you.
Thank you.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much. We did register a question for Mr. Luis Corral earlier from Northside Capital. Please go ahead, sir. In case you still have a question, the line is open.
Oh, thank you. Just a quick question. Recently, I think, Poland is thinking of suspending imports from grain from Ukraine. Could you give us a sort of an update on the situation? I understand it's fairly recent. But also, whether or how much you export into Poland of grain. Thank you very much.
Victoria, maybe I can take this question.
Yeah. Yeah.
Thank you very much for the question. Actually, the situation with the grain deal remains very uncertain and rather, I would say unstable, because we all hear the news that the grain deal has been extended and there are some resources which are telling us that it has been extended by 60 days, and other resources are telling us that it was extended by 120 days, right? Frankly speaking, that is why it is very, very uncertain. Frankly speaking, it creates an additional turbulence for our traders. I mean, the traders in Ukraine. Unfortunately, because of that, we do not have stability in operations. Moreover, definitely we have a different challenge, which is not in Ukraine, but it is in Bosphorus, right?
It is in Istanbul, right, where unfortunately, there are many additional challenges set by the Russian bureaucracy. We used to have approximately 10 ships per week arriving to Ukraine. At the moment, we have two to three ships arriving to Ukraine then to be loaded with grains. This is how the situation looks like as of today. Unfortunately, as you understand, it doesn't bring us MHP or Ukraine in general too much certainty what will happen with new harvest and with new export sales. Frankly speaking, when it comes to Poland, as you understand, we are not the biggest grain traders in Ukraine and specifically in Cherkasy that we produce grains mainly for internal processing for, to produce chicken feed. Sorry, feed for chickens, right?
Therefore, it's difficult for us to be 100% certain and inform how much we export to Poland.
Thank-
Okay, thank you very much. Our next question comes from Carl Nicey from Knighthead Capital Management. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you. A few questions. On the net working capital forecast for 2023, could you reiterate what you expect? I think I had heard $150 million potential inflow, I also heard $50 million-$70 million potential investment. Was just curious what the total net working capital cash flow is expected to be for the coming year.
Sorry. Yeah, it's like, if you correctly, your question about investment in working capital, 2023. Yes?
Yes, correct.
Yeah. As I told previously, yeah. Our expectation about investment in working capital, approximately $57 million. I will explain why and what is it. This is mostly regarding to reimbursement VAT. Because total amount of VAT based of our budget for 2023, total amount around $140 million. Is a very big amount that my expectation, our conservative expectation, that unfortunately we will not receive all this amount. Which is the main contribution in working capital regarding creation.
Okay. What about We had -$300+ million of net working capital for 2022, and I think the prior year was -$250 million. This year is going to be -$50 million to $70 million in addition to that -$600 million?
Yeah. Yes. You're correct.
From the EBRD facility and the press release, there was a notation that an incremental lender provided $10 million. Could you provide any detail as to who that lender was?
Oh, sorry, the connection is not so good. Please allow it. Yeah. What is your question about? Last question.
In the subsequent events noted in the press release.
Mm-hmm.
Highlight the EBRD facility, the $90 million.
Mm-hmm.
It's also noted that a third party lender provided $10 million. Could you provide any detail as to who that third party lender is that provided $10 million?
Yeah. Just one minute. Sorry. It's a very interesting question. Yeah, Yes. Yeah, We thought about $100 million, but in real life, we received just, yeah, $90 million by EBRD, and $10 million now. Yeah, we did not receive, and we don't know who will provide to us this money. Not yet.
All right.
The lender, yeah, we don't know. It is because EBRD organized this process. Yeah. EBRD organized this process and yeah.
Okay.
It did not happen.
In, in, in the-
Yes.
$300 million current cash balance, I think you noted that the March ending cash was approximately $300 million as well. How much of the EBRD debt is drawn in that $300 million?
Yes. I will explain. EBRD, yes, EBRD loan we can use only to buy sunflower because it's a pre-classic PF access loan. I understand your question. If you ask me, by the end of March, we had $300 million, yeah?
Correct.
Of March. Yeah.
It looks like-
Not by the end of last year because it might confuse. By the end of March, EBRD, we did not. Because we got EBRD in April. By the end of March, no. We got EBRD in April.
Okay. there's no EBRD loan outstanding.
Yeah.
In that figure.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
My last question is on the Slovenian operations. The fourth quarter EBITDA was fairly low relative to prior periods. How do you see that operation looking in 2023? Should we think of EBITDA in the $60+ million range, or would it lag this year?
Your question about Reutyne, yeah? No, we suppose, yeah. As I told in presentation, is two issues. One of them, it is the currency ratio between euro and dollar. Yeah? Yeah. If currency ratio will stay good year-over-year, maybe it is achievable. Yeah. It would be achievable. If currency ratio was poor, it would be low. Yeah.
Okay. For the total year, the euro/dollar hasn't moved that much, and I believe you did EBITDA of around $7 million for the quarter.
No, I think we did very, $65 million, $60 million, yeah. Yeah, $65 million. Yeah, $67 million. Yeah.
Okay. Okay. Of the CapEx and the investment in this region, what type of growth CapEx are we doing in Slovenia? Is it all through the existing entity, or is there M&A or...
Yes.
Get a sense of-
We have some expansion projects in Reutyne. Yeah. We started the project in 2021, especially in Serbia and Croatia. Yes. Total CapEx include maintenance CapEx in Reutyne. For this year, around $60 million. $60 million-$70 million. Includes maintenance.
That's.
Yeah. $60 million, $70 million include maintenance. Yeah.
How much is maintenance?
How much what?
How much of?
Maintenance around $20 million. Around $20 million.
Okay. We're doing $40 million of growth CapEx.
Yeah.
Like, what's the return on that CapEx? Will there be incremental EBITDA?
No, yeah. It will be incremental EBITDA, but not 2023. It would be, yeah, because it's intended in 2024. Yeah. 2024 and 2025. Yeah. No, our expectation.
But-
Yeah.
Do you know how much incremental EBITDA the project will return? If we invest $40 million, will we receive an incremental $5 million-$10 million of EBITDA, or is it higher or lower?
Yeah. If you think about IRR around, yeah, it's very difficult to say, because there are a lot of different projects. There's not one project. I mean, a lot of different investments in different countries. You understand it's Reutyne and not just Slovenia. There are a lot of countries and. We see that our IRR of different projects in Reutyne, yeah, in different projects between 12%-15%, sometimes even we make money even with IRR around 11%.
Okay. 11%-12% IRR.
Yes.
Okay. Thank you. That's all for me.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. Unfortunately, we have no further time to take any additional questions. I'll pass the line to Anastasia for the concluding remarks. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, Michael. Thank you very much, everybody. That was a very interesting call. Definitely, as I see, we've got many questions which are required to be answered. As far as you know, my email address, please forward your questions directly to me, or actually, I can use the platform to take them from here, right? We will be glad to answer them all. In case you require an extra conference call, together with the team, please send me a message. Thank you very much and have a lovely day. Bye. Thank you. Thank you, everybody. Bye.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. We'll now be closing all lines. Thank you.