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CMD 2022

Jun 8, 2022

Simon Peckham
CEO, Melrose Industries

Welcome to the Aerospace Capital Markets Day. I hope you will find it helpful and very interesting. You'll hear a lot more detail from David about the aerospace businesses, and I will not take away his thunder. David's career has involved running similar-sized businesses at Aptiv and Honeywell, and we are pleased to have him on board. He joined us last August from Aptiv and has rapidly built on the improvements that we were already making. We've been very impressed with the progress that's being made, and would compliment David and his team. We appreciate that COVID, Ukraine, and inflationary issues have hidden some of the benefits of the work that's been done at GKN as a whole over the last couple of years. It's difficult to analyze the changes from the outside, and a degree of trust is required from shareholders.

However, we would remind you that since flotation in 2003, in a succession of transactions, Melrose's always at least doubled shareholders' money. There will be, unfortunately, some delay to our usual 3-5 year time horizon with GKN, but we believe that they will maintain this record, given time. In fact, right now, most of the more risky operational changes needed are complete, or at least well underway. By way of reminder, at broadly 2019 revenue levels, if we achieve our stated margin targets, and we have never failed to do that to date, Melrose's group profits will triple 2021 levels. From a Melrose point of view, we also expect post-summer to be sufficiently confident in our GKN turnaround to be able to look to the next opportunity, provided the equity conditions are suitable.

Specifically turning to aerospace, we have a very high quality business whose strengths have to date been hidden from view. It is also a participant in the marketplace which is recovering. In our view, this is unlikely to be disrupted by current market conditions. We are disclosing today why we believe this business can achieve a higher margin performance than previously stated, and to also talk about a very high quality cash flow asset it has, but this is more for David than for me. In conclusion, conditions are set and management is in place to realize the full potential of this business, and we are very excited to be on the journey. David, may I hand over to you?

David Paja
CEO, GKN Aerospace

Good morning, everybody. I'm David Paja, CEO of GKN Aerospace since August last year. Although I'm new to the aerospace industry, I bring 30 years of experience in technology-focused industrial manufacturing companies, a lot of that time in automotive. Over the past 7 years, I've been running global businesses of a scale and complexity similar to GKN Aerospace. First at Honeywell, and more recently at Aptiv. Today, I will outline for you the path to our full potential and to an upgraded margin target from 12% that we communicated earlier to 14% plus on a fully recovered market. By that, by fully recovered, I mean back to 2019 levels. There's a few key messages that I would like you to take away today.

We're really well-positioned as the industry recovers, and we also start to see the benefits from the fundamental business improvement actions that we are driving. We have a fantastic engines business, which will be 50% aftermarket by 2030. Our long-term cash flow profile is just outstanding, specifically a future cash inflow of GBP 18.5 billion from some specific engine contracts that I will talk to you about later. This translates into a projected NPV of GBP 5 billion. Last but not least, we have a great position in sustainable technology, paving the way to net zero emissions for the aviation industry. This is GKN Aerospace on a page. As you can see, we're a leading tier one supplier in the aerospace industry with scale and global presence.

By scale, I mean our technology is on board more than 90% of all new major commercial aircraft with over 100 passengers. We are leaders in what we do with the number one or number two position in sales across most of our product lines, and with more than 70% of our contracts in single source. This means that we are firmly embedded with customers. All in all, we are a trusted and sustainable partner in the sky. We have reorganized the business to focus on end markets, and we do so via three business lines: engines, civil, and defense. Let me start with engines. We are a long-term partner to engine OEMs such as Pratt & Whitney, General Electric, Safran, Rolls-Royce. From engine design to the manufacture of critical engine components, and also supporting the fast-growing repair business.

We also provide MRO services in defense, and we are acting as the engine prime for the Gripen fighter jets engine called RM12. In our civil business, we serve the major OEMs in our industry, Airbus, Boeing, COMAC, and the business jet OEMs, providing lightweight structures, especially to support the rapid single-aisle ramp up, as well as technology for electrification, a big mega trend in our industry. In defense, we serve the defense primes, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Sikorsky, NHI. We provide them with composite and metallic structures, canopies, landing gear for the world's leading military platforms. As you can see on this slide, we're very, very balanced in terms of our business, making us very resilient. We have three business lines with relevant scale. 60% of our sales come from civilian market and 40% from defense.

We sell to all major OEMs, with no single customer actually representing more than 20% of our revenue. We have a growing aftermarket business, which will reach 20% of our sales by 2030. It's worth mentioning, this will be 50% in our engines business by 2030. We also have a very balanced global presence. Today, about 2/3 of our production comes out of Europe, and 1/3 out of North America. We are rapidly expanding and growing in China too, as you will hear later. This slide shows our product portfolio. As you can see, our products cover the entire aircraft, wingtip to wingtip, nose to tail. On the top of the chart, you can see the lightweight composite and metallic structures that go on wings, fuselage, tail. Also, the electrical distribution systems, and especially technology such as windows, anti-icing products, and landing gear.

At the lower part of the chart, you see the critical structural parts for engines, such as fan and turbine cases, blades and vanes, shafts, or ducts. Our industrial footprint is certainly a strength of ours, and we are optimizing it further. Between 2019 and 2023, we go from 51 sites down to 33. We are aggressively exiting non-core activities and consolidating under-utilized sites in both Europe and North America, but at the same time, we're investing to capture the growth that we see coming from Asia, and more in particular, China. We're also investing in global technology centers to make sure we drive sustainable aviation technology leadership. We have a very experienced leadership team. You can see on this page, that all the top leadership has a very balanced mix of aerospace and other industry experience and background.

What's important, the whole team is laser-focused on value creation. Let me now cover our path to our full potential and our upgraded margin target of 14%+, assuming again, a full market recovery. We are undertaking a significant transformation of the business, making a step change in focus and efficiency. As you know, GKN Aerospace grew through acquisition without ever fully integrating. We are addressing this now. On the left side, you can see our previous ways of working, mostly in silos and without any economies of scale. In the last two years, we have implemented a one aerospace model, changing the way we work. On the right side, you see what it means. It means that we are more customer-focused. We can better manage our supply base, which is global.

We've been able to tackle long-standing issues with contracts and footprint while driving excellence and standardization through our lean operating model and global functions. The model is clearly delivering results, as you see in the upgraded margin target of 14%+, assuming, once again, a fully recovered market. Before COVID, the business had a margin of 10.6%. In 2020, we managed to break even on 30% lower sales. In 2021, we added 4 percentage points operating profit on flat sales. To achieve the new 40%+ target, we have two major levers. We have business improvement actions all underway and on track that will deliver extra 4 percentage points, and the rest will come from volume recovery in line with the industry.

There's basically three main areas of business improvement actions, which will be substantially complete by the end of next year and will bring around GBP 150 million of annual net savings. On the left side, commercial actions, which are a mix of portfolio decisions, repricing, and supplier consolidation. This will deliver GBP 45 million extra operating profit per year. In the center, restructuring projects, which is basically reshaping our footprint, reducing rooftops, increasing utilization and product focus, while leveraging best- cost country capabilities. This will yield GBP 50 million incremental operating profit per year. All the way to the right, operational excellence, which is about reducing cost of poor quality and driving productivity as we grow, leveraging our lean deployment model, as well as synergies from the shift to global functions. This will deliver GBP 50 million extra operating profit a year.

Let me spend some time talking about inflation, which I'm sure is top of your mind. Inflation represents a clear headwind today, not only for us, across all industries. We have good contractual positions to be able to pass a large part of our cost to our customers. For the rest, we have launched additional mitigation actions too. We're confident in our ability to recover the full impact as we see it today. It clearly remains a top priority for me and our leadership team, and we continue to monitor it very, very closely every day. I've talked about restructuring. As you know, there is significant restructuring underway in the business. By the end of 2023, we'll have one-third fewer sites than in 2019. These projects are all underway and set to be complete by the end of 2023.

Since the start of 2021 alone, we have already closed two sites, one in the U.K. and one in Thailand, divested Fokker Services, Fokker Techniek, and a small site in Santa Ana. There's a lot more work underway. In the next 18 months, we're closing five more sites and downsizing three as we align capacity to demand and we increase the product focus of our sites. Overall, we're very confident that our business improvement actions will deliver. Let's talk about volume. As volume returns, external market forecasts suggest that we grow at a blended 7% CAGR up to 2030. Clearly, growth will be stronger before 2025, where we expect a 10%+ CAGR as industry recovers from COVID-19. Overall, with the combination of improvement actions and a recovered market over the medium term, we are confident on reaching the upgraded margin target.

Let me give you now more details about each of our business lines. I'll start with engines. Our engines business is truly a premium business with excellent long-term cash flows. The strength of this business is in the deep partnerships with the engine OEMs, which have a very long-term nature. This slide summarizes our engines business, its products, its business models, its customers. On the left side, our offerings. Mainly design and manufacture of critical engine parts, but also a growing repair business, MRO services for fighter jet engines, and adjacent space applications. In the center, you can see we have two different business models. Traditional commercial agreements, which represent 53% of our sales, and notably, risk and revenue sharing partnerships, which represent 47% of our sales, and I will explain later.

We are substantially increasing our focus on aftermarket, growing from 34% today to 50% by 2030, and we serve all major engine OEMs, with Pratt & Whitney being our largest engine customer. The premium nature of this business comes from the technology that we have and the portfolio of RRSP programs, which give us access to cash flows from aftermarket. We're now taking this business to the next level as the market recovers and we deploy our strategy. For engines, the key market factor is flight hours, which has a strong link to aftermarket. Flight hours are coming back very strongly post-COVID and will reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024, growing 10% per annum up to 2030. This will drive strong cash flows through our RRSP programs. There is also pent-up demand for engine repair, which is an important growth opportunity for us.

We have a strong growth strategy in engines up to 2030 based on four major pillars: growing our RRSP portfolio, aggressively expanding in repair, introducing additive manufacturing as a way to create more value, and extending our governmental business. On the left side, you see the split of revenue between RRSP and regular contracts, which is further split on this chart between OEM, repair, and governmental. Let's focus on RRSPs now. We have 19 risk and revenue sharing partnerships across different OEMs, with the majority reaching their harvest period where cash flows are increasingly positive. RRSPs are unique and very valuable. If you think of an engine life cycle, there are three phases. Approximately 15 years of investment in technology and product development with negative cash flows. Then a phase of about 15 years of OE production with relatively low cash inflow.

Finally, a phase of about 30 years of aftermarket, which delivers the bulk of the program cash flows. 17 of the 19 RRSP programs that we have are in the cash-generating phase. The majority are actually in the first half of that lucrative phase, with many years of cash generation still ahead of them. This slide is a one-page explanation on how the RRSP business model works, for those of you that may not be so familiar with it. Sharing risk and revenue means you make a life-of-program commitment, whereby every year you contribute a pre-agreed percentage of the total program costs, and you also receive the same pre-agreed percentage of the total program revenue. This gets GKN secure access to aftermarket cash flows that otherwise it could not access. It's really a very small club of companies invited to such an arrangement.

Companies with differentiated technology and capability, financial muscle, and trust, given the length of the commitment. On the right side, you see the 19 RRSP programs and where they stand in the life cycle phase. As I said before, 17 out of 19 are in cash positive area, getting closer to the more lucrative part of the programs. The Pratt & Whitney GTF engine, which powers A220 and A320 aircraft, is a great example of our RRSPs. The GTF engine entered service in 2016. It's one of the most important platforms in our industry. We have between 4% and 7% of the total engine partnership, depending on the specific variants. We contribute with the design and manufacture of key fabricated structures. We've introduced additive manufacturing technology to reduce waste and enhance performance.

We are a member of the GTF repair network, and our success here has put us in a great position for the next generation GTF engine development. If you aggregate the 19 RRSP programs, you can see GBP 18.5 billion of cash flows ahead. This graph shows cash flows in two colors. Dark green for firm orders, light green for forecast orders. These cash flows are very certain as the engines are already in service and we have a lifetime contract in place. Of course, we consider the potential for certain levels of unforeseen technical issues. The only other risk to these cash flows is really the volume forecast. To be clear, the numbers you see on this page are based on our customer views, not ours.

If you apply a discount rate between low-risk debt and the weighted average cost of capital, the projected NPV is around GBP 5 billion. Let me make this point again, it's really important. This is just the value of our RRSP portfolio, which is less than 20% of the total GKN Aerospace revenue today. We obviously want to further grow our RSP portfolio on the key next gen single aisle engines, the RISE engines, and the next generation GTF engine. We are already one of the very few companies selected to partner with both Pratt & Whitney and General Electric on the technology demonstration phases of both already. These engines will deliver step improvement in fuel efficiency and will drive down CO2, powering the most sustainable single aisles that will enter in service in the 2030s.

As you know, the single aisle market is the place to be, and we are confident we will be there. Engine repair growth is our second strategic lever, and we plan GBP 100 million revenue increase by 2025. According to industry forecasts, engine shop visits will grow more than 10% CAGR up to 2030. The parts repair industry in particular will grow even faster as customers move from replace to repair strategies to save costs. In parallel, there's massive undercapacity because many shops closed during the pandemic, and the new engine designs require a higher level of skills. We're uniquely positioned to take advantage of this opportunity. Over the past few years, we've been investing heavily in global repair capabilities. We've grown our North America footprint for repair, introduced repair capability to Sweden, and started production in our first repair center in Asia just recently.

We're now further increasing capacity for fan blade repair, which we already do today, launching new repair products, mainly fabricated structures, and developing first-in-industry repair capabilities for blisks, which will be critical for new engine platforms such as the Pratt & Whitney F135, the GTF, and GE LEAP engines. Technology insertion, specifically deploying additive manufacturing at scale, also sets us apart. We already use additive manufacturing to make engine parts today. The technology is in production and is already removing cost and emissions from the manufacturing process. The next step is to validate this technology for use on more complex, higher load engine parts. We are on the verge of achieving this, enabling us to replace very expensive castings and forgings by thin metal structures with key features built on through additive.

This will deliver a 70% reduction in overall material use, substantial lead time reduction, and control of supply chain processes, as well as a massive step forward in sustainability. Between now and 2025, we're planning to add GBP 150 million of cumulative sales on additive. Defense engines also offer the opportunity for strategic growth based on our existing prime position. Since 1930, almost a hundred years, we've been building and maintaining fighter engines for the Swedish Air Force. Since 1980, we've been responsible for the maintenance and flight availability of all the Gripen engines in operations. As this engine reaches end of life in the 2030s, we're using our expertise to support the launch of the next generation Gripen E version, representing the GBP 1.5 billion opportunity for us over the long term.

We're also leveraging our position as a Swedish national champion to play a key role in the Future Combat Air System, FCAS, developed by Sweden, U.K., and Italy. There will be a significant opportunity for us here, too. This activity also maintains our OEM-level capabilities and knowledge of full engine systems, which is really a true differentiator when we partner with engine OEMs. Moving on to the civil airframe business. This is a very well-positioned business that we're improving further. It's clearly in a more competitive space, and we're making it better by addressing legacy over capacity issues, expanding our presence in China, and investing in differentiated technology. Here's the civil airframe business on a page, well-balanced across customers, platforms, and products. On the left, our core products, composite and metallic structures for wings, empennages, and fuselages, electric distribution systems, and passenger and cabin windows.

Our revenue in 2021 was split 43% on narrow body, around a third of it on business jets, and the final quarter or so in wide body. We serve all the main global OEMs, with Airbus representing 50% of total. Our broad product portfolio and global footprint are significant strengths, and our improvement focus is really on removing overcapacity, as I mentioned, really linked to the decline in the wide body volumes, growing in China, and positioning for the next generation narrow body and advanced air mobility markets. Our civil business took the biggest hit from COVID, but the market is now in recovery phase. Aircraft deliveries dropped by 50% during the pandemic, as you can see on the page. The market expects full recovery by 2024.

The mix will be different, with narrow bodies ramping up faster and much less wide body. Given our portfolio mix, our revenue in civil might not fully recover to pre-pandemic levels until a year later. Longer term, as we all know, China will be one of the main end markets for aviation, and they are building up their own OEMs, COMAC and AVIC. These are key trends for our civil business. The A320 is the most significant civil aircraft out there, and we are well-placed on board. This platform represents more than 80% of Airbus' total order book. Our content includes wing and tail structures, electrical distribution, and flight deck windows, all delivered from four different countries across three continents, Europe, North America, and China.

In total, excluding our engines content, our content on A320 represents GBP 400,000 per aircraft, and we are working to expand it for the next generation aircraft. The change of mix between narrow and wide-body is leaving us with a lot of stranded capacity, especially in the U.S. and Europe. This adds to a legacy of overcapacity that we even had before COVID. We're tackling this problem of overcapacity head-on. From 2020- 2025, our civil footprint will reduce from 19 production sites in Europe and the U.S. down to 11 sites, with roughly the same revenue and utilization increasing from 68%- 95%. In parallel, we're investing and expanding our presence in China to 10 times its current footprint by 2030. China is a key growth area, and we are embedded in this market like no other Western tier one.

In 2019, we had one site for electrical wiring. Last year, we opened a second site for transparencies, and we signed a game-changing JV with COMAC and AVIC to be in a strategic position to benefit from the growth of China's two OEMs. Next year, we will be opening a large JV site for air structures alongside our OEM partners. Overall, we will boost the growth of our China business to GBP 270 million by 2030, and this will only be the beginning. Going into technology, we're leading the development of sustainable composite technology for future single aisles. As you know, composite technology was deployed at scale on wide-body in the last few years. Now it's moving into narrow-body. The challenge for today's composite structures technology for wings is that it does not scale to narrow-body volumes.

If you take A350 wing as an example, large composite structures today are cured in ovens and assembled in large dedicated machines. This means that assembly rates are too low and CapEx too high for narrow-body. We've developed the right technology for narrow-body volumes without batch curing and with modular assembly. It has already demonstrated massive cost, cycle time, and energy improvements, as you can see on this page. This new technology is not in R&D phase. It's already being demonstrated on the Wing of Tomorrow for Airbus. We launched this joint project with Airbus in 2018, and last year we delivered the first in industry 18-meter spar made with this technology. Next year, we will demonstrate manufacturing rates, and by 2025, we will be ready to start a specific production development program.

When this technology is fully adopted, we estimate our potential content on the wing alone could be as high as GBP 450,000, allowing us to target twice the content that we already have today on A320. Electrification and the growing advanced air mobility market is the final strategic pillar for us in civil. The advanced air mobility market is certainly congested with a lot of startups who are innovating on battery-powered solutions for city and short-range transport. The future market size varies by opinion, but it will be certainly big. According to Deloitte, it will be GBP 115 billion by 2035. Our strategy here has been to pick the winners and partner early. Today, we have 4 major partnerships in place across different countries. The reason these startups come to us is our system-level capability.

We're one of the very few companies able to specify and build complex integrated wing structures, including electrical distribution. Crucially, our expertise allows us to do this at speed. We've been able to design and deliver parts from scratch in 14 months, which is 70% faster than any traditional program. Revenue will come later in the decade, but we are really excited by our position in advanced air mobility and prospects. Turning now to our defense business line. This is a business with a lot of potential for improvement by refocusing our portfolio on higher quality designed to build programs. Summarizing defense on a page, you can see again that we support all key customers and platforms. Starting with our core products on the left, these include integrated structures, canopies for fixed-wing aircraft, electrical distribution systems, and landing gear.

Our revenue is clearly dominated by integrated structures, which represents two-thirds of total. About 60% of what we ship today is make-to-print, where we create less value. Through portfolio actions, we're shifting this to 70% design-to-build, making it a higher quality business. We serve all key defense OEMs, with Lockheed Martin representing almost 50% of total. Our biggest strength is our presence on the main platforms of the industry. In fighter jets, F-35, F-15, F-18, and in rotorcraft, Black Hawk and NH90, as examples. Also, our footprint outside the U.S. that we use for industrial offsets is a point of strength. The levers to improve this business are the refocus of our portfolio and the improvement in the profitability of the large platforms as we grow. On the market side, we expect a good, steady market growth ahead.

About 75% of what we sell today directly supports the US military, which is why US defense budget is a key indicator for us. This is set to grow 2% CAGR through the decade. We do see bigger growth coming from fighter jets, like F-35, where we have $2.5 million of content per aircraft. Let me touch on that now. F-35 deliveries are in ramp-up mode, and volumes will likely increase with recently announced purchases from different countries. Our technology in F-35 includes metallic and composite structures, canopies, wiring harnesses, and landing gear. We deliver from four different countries as we leverage the industrial offset strategy.

The F-35 is a key program for GKN Aerospace and provides us with great credibility as we look to step onto the next sixth generation of advanced fighter jets, such as Tempest or FCAS in Europe and NGAD in North America. There are three steps to our defense improvement measures. We're shrinking our footprint to be more efficient from nine to seven sites. We're focused on growing the product lines where we are more differentiated and exiting others. Going forward, our top focus is on complex structures, wiring, canisters, and transparencies. We're ramping up our internal R&D spend to position ourselves on the key future platforms. Overall, this higher quality business will be almost three-quarters designed to build work by 2030. Now, let's talk about our sustainability agenda. Sustainability starts with how we operate, and we have clear and credible targets.

These are focused on reducing emissions and waste while increasing sustainable technologies. We are on track to meet our commitments. 2 great examples are renewable energy, which represents 20% of our total energy usage today, going up to 50% by 2025, and additive manufacturing, which drives 70% improvement in buy-to-fly ratio. Again, note that this slide highlights the very real impact that additive manufacturing is having on our technology and environmental performance today. We also have a clear agenda to create a safe, diverse, and engaged culture. We focus on safety hazards identification and solve them as the way to prevent accidents. We have increased solved hazards by 50% year-over-year. We also care about diversity. We have 6 employee resource groups with more than 500 people actively engaged in them. Employee engagement is 1 of our top 8 business KPIs.

We use Gallup as the standard for excellence, and we've made significant strides since 2018. We also have a clear path to the world-class levels we aspire to, although there's clearly more to do. We also focus on how our suppliers operate, with a strong supplier code of conduct. As we add new suppliers or assess the ones we have, we ensure that they abide with our principles every step of the way. It is clearly through our products that we make the biggest relative impact on sustainability. As you look at all the technologies required for the industry to achieve net-zero emissions, we've already covered a few. Battery electric in the shorter range, advanced air mobility market, and the use of SAF, sustainable aviation fuels, to reduce emissions at all ranges. Let me reiterate that we've continued to invest in these technologies despite the downturn.

Across the board, we and our partners have committed GBP 100 million since 2020. Two key projects have been in the area of hydrogen, the one area that we have not touched on yet. Let me do so now. We have two active programs to develop the groundbreaking hydrogen technologies. These cover both hydrogen combustion and hydrogen electric, so-called fuel cell. H2GEAR, on the top of the chart, aims at developing a complete ground demonstrator of a 1-megawatt engine, including hydrogen cryogenic handling. We're targeting ground testing in the late 2020s and believe that this technology will be able to power 40-passenger zero-emission flights in the 2030s. At the bottom of the chart, H2JET is about hydrogen combustion. Here, we lead a partnership in Sweden to prove what adaptations need to be made to current engines to enable it.

The crucial aspect of this H2JET program is that it is focused on longer range, increased passenger aircraft, like today's single-aisle planes, powered by hydrogen. This would be a true game changer on the route to net zero. We're not only working on today's technologies, but on the near and further out future. In short, we're shaping the future of flight. Let me now bring it all together. What you've heard from me today is that GKN Aerospace is an outstanding business, extremely well-positioned, exactly when the market is starting its recovery. We're transforming the business end-to-end, and expect most of these to be complete by the end of 2023, leading to an upgraded medium-term margin target of 14%+ on a fully recovered market.

Driven by our premium engines business, we have extremely strong cash flows ahead, as our RRSP programs are entering the most profitable phase of their life cycle, with embedded discount value of GBP 5 billion on less than 20% of our aerospace revenue today. Thank you. Let me now hand it over to Geoff to conclude today's presentation.

Geoff Martin
Group Finance Director, Melrose Industries

Thank you, David. The aerospace story is another good example of the Melrose buy, improve, sell model in action. Aerospace is clearly a high-quality business with good growth, excellent long-term cash flow dynamics, good products, and a full margin potential. It was underperforming, and therefore a proper Melrose target. Macro conditions are currently hiding much of the benefits of the improved stage of the Melrose strategy. Under the bonnet, GKN Aero is responding well to the trusted Melrose model, as well as any previous company Melrose has owned. In terms of equity return, Aero has one of the highest potentials. To demonstrate this, it is very timely to explain how good a business GKN Aero is and outline its full upside. Today, we have announced and committed to some new information, not least the upgraded margin target to 14%+ on a fully recovered market.

We don't do that lightly. You should assume that requires sales of around the 2019 level, being GBP 3.4 billion, adjusted for divestments and closures as detailed in the presentation. We can't say exactly when that will happen, but the stepping stones are in place. David also gave a full explanation of the strong Aero business positioning across different sectors, platforms, and customers. The business resilience is impressive by remembering the 95%, 90%, and 70% triple status. Namely, 95% of sales from leading positions, aerospace product is on 90% of commercial aircraft, and on greater than 70% of revenue, they are the single source. Also today has given much better clarity on the inherent value embedded in aerospace being cash backed.

Namely, the total cash flow value of GBP 18.5 billion or GBP 5 billion on a net present value on 19 engines contracts, which make up less than 20% of aerospace sales today, which is actually 5% of Melrose group sales. That's quite something. Finally, the healthy growth prospects, particularly to 2025, where we expect greater than a 10% annual growth rate and also in the longer term, growth is encouraging too. Taken together, that would mean Aero profitability alone being the size of the whole of Melrose this year. This combination of growth, cash flow, margin, and market positioning is very powerful and will be recognized in any future M&A. Put frankly, aerospace is a better business than we thought, with higher upside. Hence the title of both the introduction and conclusion pages from David's presentation being Higher Potential.

It is also important to note that the improvement strategy has been de-risked considerably by being so well advanced. Our restructuring plans should be substantially complete by the end of 2023, with the experienced management team in place under David's leadership. In short, aerospace is poised to unlock significant value in a sustainable way. Standing back at a Melrose level, over the last year, we have given investor days for auto, powder metallurgy, and aerospace, which made up 97% of Melrose last year. Macro conditions have not been easy, but each business has been transformed in recent years, and each have their own improved margin targets, which would triple Melrose profits from last year. The work has substantially been done and the strategy set. We are confident in the underlying value of the businesses we own. Thank you for listening.

After a short comfort break of 5 minutes, we will move to a live Q&A session with Simon, David, and myself.

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