Good morning, everyone. I'm David Westenberg, the life science tools and diagnostics analyst here. With me today is Chief Product Officer Rosemary, and John. I forgot your role.
Head of Corporate Development.
Corporate development. I'm really sorry. Should've asked that one ahead of time. Anyway, if we could just start with an overview of your technology, and how it's different from other sequencing technologies.
Sure. It's great to be here. Dave, thanks for the invite. We've been sequencing DNA now for well over 20 years. We've made a lot of fantastic discoveries through doing that. However, there are still a lot of areas of the DNA that are still unmapped. And what we do at Oxford Nanopore is we've developed a technology that can really get into some of those unmapped regions. And those unmapped regions are really important. There's a lot of useful information in there, particularly if you think around regions such as cancer, Parkinson's, Alzheimer's. There's a lot of information in those. So the way that the technology works is we have a nanopore, and we feed DNA or RNA molecules through the nanopore.
We read current, and as the current changes, we can assign that current change to a base, be it an A, a C, a T, or a G. But we can also assign it to a modified base. So we also get epigenetics inside the signal, as the sequencer evolves. Being an electronic sequencing technology, not a light-based sequencing technology, we're at liberty to make sequencers of any size, from handheld sequencers all the way to really, really large instruments. And so we're exceptionally scalable. And finally, back to your point around what makes us different is that we've started off with a with a DNA sequencing technology, but what we have is a platform that can measure DNA. It can measure RNA. And in the future, we'll be able to sequence and measure proteins or any other molecule for that matter. So we've really built a platform.
We've started with DNA and RNA, but we will be taking it into other omics.
Got it. Can you walk us through the innovation you've had over the last couple of years and where you see innovation going in?
Sure. It's been intense, so there's a lot to cover, sort of big, really, really big-ticket item that we've done that we've achieved over the last couple of years is really sort of pinned down our accuracy. Nanopore accuracy is over 99% now, and that was a really, really big milestone for everyone to hit, and so we've spent the last couple of years sort of packaging up that capability and that information richness that you get with Nanopore into the workflow so that everything is running in real time. All the base callers are keeping up. The back-end informatics are all really well integrated now, and through all of this work, we've actually gotten over 100,000 genomes under our belt at the Emirati Genome Program.
So we've really scaled and really pushed this platform to a place that we can be doing tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands of genomes. On the other end of the spectrum, we've launched our P2 implementation. So we've gone big. We've done the large genome programs. We've also gone small, gone decentralized. And so the P2s, we now have over 1,350 worldwide. And that is powering customers to do human genetics at a completely different scale. And so the P2 instruments we launched for early access for only $10,000. So for $10,000, people can be doing human genome labs. With all of the advancements that our customers are doing, we felt it really important to accelerate our regulatory device platforms as well.
We see a lot of customers wanting to take our instrumentation into translation and one day into the clinic or applied markets, hence our Q-Line. In order to do that, people want really locked-down end-to-end workflows. We've been developing these in regions of human genetics, but also infectious disease, and other areas, interesting areas like biomanufacturing, plasmid sequencing. We've really been getting everything locked down. The future has a lot to offer with our platform. We will continue to push on the scale, on the output, on the accuracy of our instrumentation, on the richness of information. The more modified bases we can deliver, the richer the information is that customers can get out at the other end. Then, of course, there's the whole push into multi-omics. We have a very, very bright future ahead of us.
That sounds great. Thank you so much. So just in terms of there's some ASHG or, you know, innovation over the last couple months here. Illumina's platform is getting smaller, and PacBio is able to create now a $500 genome. Any thoughts on terms of the competitive innovation that you're seeing?
So actually, every single platform and product release in the industry should be celebrated. It pushes everyone forward, and so we kinda look at what's happened in the market and sort of bucket it into three things. In the summer, you had the sort of market leader give their strategy update, really focusing on the richness of information being very important, so you know, talking about five methyl C, the fifth base, that's really important. Multi-omics being important, and so that for us was a sign that the biggest player in the market today is agreeing with the Nanopore statement that information wealth and the depth of information that you need for a genome is really, really important.
We then had, at ASHG, you had a launch of PacBio's benchtop system and also their new chemistry, really sort of stating that affordability is important. So a $500 genome's important, and a benchtop instrument is important. Again, validating what Nanopore has been doing and driving for years. And finally, the Illumina piece where they came out and sort of reminded the market that it's not just human. MiSeq platform is there. It's a really important platform. And you know, what we feel that we are actually in a really, really good position against these three different, against these sort of three different movements. So firstly, on the information wealth, we've been, you know, we are the market leader in terms of accuracy for epigenomics, and epigenetics.
We’re really very, very confident that that is something that Nanopore is really leading the forefront on, on the affordability. Our average human genome accounts are generating about 120 GB of DNA data per flow cell, a lot of them multiplexing. So they can already get around $500 for a 30x genome. And 30x is really important for it to be clinically valid. And then also on the infectious disease and on the other front, we’ve had a fantastic year at Nanopore. We’ve released our NOMIS protocol, which is Nanopore-only microbial sequencing. We’re getting Q60 accuracies on bacterial assemblies, and making really fantastic movements in the health and pathogen piece. So we think we’ve got a really good position versus sort of the three key movements in the market.
Gotcha. And, going back to innovation, London Calling will probably be in May. Can you give us a flavor on what kinda innovation, you know, you're working on and, you know, maybe for those unfamiliar what London Calling is?
Yeah. Actually, so London Calling for us was a very, very important thing. We launched our platform at an incredibly early stage of its life cycle. It was very, very early and very exciting. And we felt it was really important to create an environment where we at Oxford Nanopore could really be talking regularly with our user base. So London Calling is much about Nanopore giving updates, getting our users up to speed with what we're working on. It's as much about that as it is about listening to our user base about what they're interested in, what the key features are of the technology, what's big. And so if you think around some of the key user stories that have come out of London Calling, telomere-to-telomere sequencing, that group presented there.
We've had a lot of our direct RNA, tRNA, users present. So we actually use it not just as a platform where we engage with our users and bring them along with our invention, but also listen to what they're saying and listen to what is next, and so it is our competitive advantage. There's a lot of things cooking in the R&D kitchen as ever. You can be sure that there will be updates around the general platform, and also around our multi-omic strategy.
Gotcha. I think sometime, maybe it was two years ago. Wow. In the fall, you announced the equity-related equity investment from bioMérieux. What was the motivation from them in your mind?
Sure. So that was actually only a year ago.
Okay.
It seems like time. A lot of water under the bridge since then. Taking one step back, working with companies like bioMérieux is a very important way for us to access clinical and applied markets. That's the basis, that's the strategic context for that. What we did first with bioMérieux is establish a collaboration incorporating three different work streams. One related to multi-drug resistant TB, one related to integrating Nanopore data into hospital-acquired infection surveillance software. The third one was looking at sterile site infections, potentially including sepsis. We made quite a bit of progress in each of those three work streams. Then subsequently, bioMérieux decided to invest. It's not related directly to the collaboration, and we retained flexibility to work with other partners in clinical markets. That is, again, important to our platform strategy.
but it is very important to us as a corporate relationship, and we're pleased with the progress. In fact, we plan to launch the TB product, which we call AmPORE TB in 2025.
Gotcha. You know, speaking of this, you know, area, how long do you think it's gonna take before we see ONT sequencers in the physician office? And, you know, I think we saw stuff at the NIH, NHS that was kind of interest.
Right. Right. So it's very central to our vision. And so I love the question. I think true physician office use, meaning right there alongside a flu test, for example, that's a ways out. That's probably a decade or more out. And it's really dependent on alignment of payers and providers and ecosystem. But when the ecosystem is ready, we'll be there with the technology because we can absolutely do that. I think inside of that timeframe, there's an opportunity to democratize the community hospital labs. So that's a move toward decentralization. It's what we view as an inexorable march over time toward that kind of democratization of this technology. But yeah, again, I think true physician office use and ultimately consumer use, that's the big vision for the long term.
Gotcha. Okay. And then, you know, in terms of your penetration in the U.S., I think, you know, relative to the rest of the world, I think you're underpenetrated in the U.S. So, I think but you're increasing your sales force here. What do you think is gonna help accelerate the growth in this market?
So a few things are. We're very pleased with the progress in that market. And there are a few things that have come together. One of them, as you mentioned, is the investment in infrastructure. And when we went public in 2021, we set that out as a goal. And we've done that. So and it's investment not only in scale, we have a lot more people, but also talent. So we've found people in the industry who could really come into Nanopore and be productive. So we're just delighted with that progress. We've also, I think partly because of these market conditions we're in today, we've really had to focus more on the use cases. That's to say the customer profiles and the applications where we're super differentiated. And so we're getting better at approaching that more strategically, and it's really helping.
I think there's just a general awareness. We're past 12,000 publications now based on Nanopore. So that constant drumbeat of new, productive use of Nanopore in the research setting adds credibility and awareness, including in the U.S. market.
Gotcha. Just going back to clinical rare disease, so far has been, you know, a much more short-read-dominated despite the fact that it's naturally probably a long-read problem. PacBio's had some very good progress there. But is there a way for ONT to also play in that market near term?
Yeah. That's a great, it's a great question. So, we actually really get very, very excited about rare disease because it really brings together sort of the three main differentiators that uniquely Nanopore can combine. The first one is the information wealth, right? So rare disease we sort of discussed is highly associated with complex areas of the genome that short reads don't penetrate very well. The epigenetics has a lot to offer there as well. The other pieces that then come into play when you're starting to talk about clinic is turnaround time. So speed, how quickly can you get your answer, and how can you deploy the technology? So how close can you get the technology to the patient? Those are three things that we do really, really well.
And so if you look at some of the high-profile examples that Nanopore have sort of really showcased over the last few years, there was a fantastic study in Stanford looking at NICU patients. And we went from sample to interpreted answer to the full answer in under eight hours. The time that it took to actually generate a 60x human genome was under two hours to do the sequencing. These are timeframes that are completely unattainable with other technologies on the market. And so this is the bit where we think, you know, rare disease brings together that need of additional information that Nanopore brings, speed, and deployability 'cause it's near patients.
And we've also had fantastic examples this year in the cancer space with things like methylation risk scores, where you can go from a brain tumor, go from someone who's in surgery, take sample, go to the lab next door, like John was saying, really about decentralizing the hospital lab, and you can do a tumor profiling based on methylation within two hours. And so within two hours, that patient is getting the treatment that they need. And the standard of care for that type of test right now is six weeks. So we're going from six weeks to two hours.
These are the sorts of things that, you know, while now we might be arguing, you know, which technology has, you know, advantages, certainly in the future in terms of when it actually comes to a clinical product, the speed and deployability are two factors that we think are gonna be really, really important within this market.
Now switching over to just markets in general or market growth in general. I mean, the other sequencing companies are also struggling. You know, your growth rate is below, you know, this year's, but again, so is Thermo, so is, you know, everyone in life sciences. So, what do you, when do you expect a turnaround or recovery in sequencing relative to life science tools markets? And, you know, if this market continues to be a little bit more depressed, I mean, what are kind of the avenues that you think?
So great question. And one that I'm sure everybody's discussing here at this conference. I think we're seeing steady interest. It's just been a bit narrower than it was in the past. So as I mentioned, we've become better at identifying the customers and the use cases where we can really be most productive commercially. And that's worked for us. So it's, in baseball terms, it's a series of singles and doubles, but it accumulates into premium growth. So when we go out there in the world, we don't see on a kind of customer level or a day-to-day level, a real reluctance to spend money on sequencing.
But we do have to find the right buttons to push and the real value we can bring to customers, because they become more sensitive to the options in the market and the budgets.
Gotcha. Is there a cricket example?
That'd be the wrong one for that.
It would take five days.
Okay. Just continuing in terms of end markets, you know, one of these debates we get, and you know, sorry to keep bringing up the market leader, but you know, the growth rate in terms of the market leader, they are you know, the most dominant player in the market. And you know, there's this argument about you know, is it a double-digit growth company? And you know, it also winds up being, is this a double-digit growth industry, essentially? I kinda laugh at that notion because, I mean, I am pretty sure I would guess PCR has grown in the double digits and grew in the double digits for, say, 30 years. And even in academia, it was probably growing maybe the high single digits.
I know I'm leading you with this question, but just in terms of we thinking about the 10-20-year growth rate of sequencing in general, where are we at?
You're leading in a good direction there because we often discuss PCR. We often say this, but it's always worth saying again that we really don't view ourselves as a sequencing company per se. We view ourselves as a technology that can be applied to all sorts of biological analysis, including sequencing. The runway for that is huge. We're geared toward that demand for biological information. Our job is to make sure that we innovate over time, which we're doing at a fast pace, as Rosemary said, and be in a position to provide that kind of analytical tool. It's definitely not limited to sequencing. We like PCR as a comparison in the sense that it just became a ubiquitous means of measuring things out there in the world.
That's very much what we intend to do as well.
Gotcha. Moving on to population sequencing, can you talk about your projects in population sequencing and then maybe just from the pipeline in terms of other nations, you know, pursuing population sequencing efforts? And, you know, are we gonna see Nanopore be playing an increasing role in population?
Yeah, that's, you know, it is an area that we, you know, that we certainly focus on quite a lot. So, the large programs, they run around the world, sort of all lots of different nations that've got population scale programs. And the way that we have been seeing it up until today is that, you know, they typically do many genomes using sort of exomes or short-reads. And then they typically take about 10% of those sample set and apply a long-read to that. Nanopore's been very successful in getting into those conversations, because we have that scalability that we spoke about. We've already got 100,000 genomes under our belt. We know how to do this. We know how to scale it.
But we also can offer Nanopore-only telomere-to-telomere genomes that are really important to build the reference scaffold to any particular population scale program. So, you know, we started off, we had Emirati genome program, which really sort of launched our capability. But we, you know, we absolutely, you know, played a, you know, have a fantastic relationship here with the NIH CARD on Alzheimer's, NIHR in the UK, PRECISE in Singapore. And we've just also signed up with UK Biobank to do 50,000 genomes, starting to explore the epigenome of that sample set. So yeah, it's been something that is working for us.
Gotcha. Can you talk about expectations for China this year and next? I guess we're gonna probably be talking about next year and the year after that because we're pretty late in the year. Can you remind us in terms of the Asian market, you know, the size and the growth expectation there? And then just some of the unique stuff to China, you know, in terms of data leaving the country, maybe some of the Biosecurity Act stuff in other developed markets, not China, and IP.
I take the first part. China is not an easy market to do business in today, as we all know. We were pleased with the performance that we delivered in the first half of this year. We grew on a constant currency basis in the low double digits, and it was about 9% of our total revenue in that period. That said, we're not counting on that to continue. We do expect to continue to grow, but probably not at that rate given the challenges we're facing. We're committed to the market, and we'll continue to find a way to serve our customers there who are very productive and valued to us. But it is challenging, so we're keeping our expectations in check.
Yeah. And then on kind of biosecurity, so we have been working really, really hard this year to make sure that we're working very, very well with all of the export compliance. But it does delay sales cycles. So, you know, and then as biosecurity's developed, we will develop to work with all of the agencies that are in full compliance. And then IP-wise, we have very, very, very strong IP, global IP, which, you know, and.
Gotcha. Then just maybe if you can help us bridge your 57% gross margin to your long-term target of 62%. And then just longer term in terms of your cash flow break-even targets, if you can remind us that, and if there's a certain growth rate you need to achieve that cash flow break-even.
Sure. So on the margin point, you're right. We've guided to 57% gross margin for the full year 2024, and we were pleased to deliver 58.8% in the first half. It was actually approximately 60% on a constant currency basis. So, that was a good result, and we're pleased with the way that's tracking toward the long-term target that you mentioned of 62%. The drivers of that really are improvements in manufacturing yields first and foremost for PromethION flow cells, and we've been there before with MinION flow cells. So we know how to do it, and we're getting it done. You asked about break-even.
Yeah.
Right. So we've guided to, adjusted EBITDA break-even in the full year 2027 and cash flow break-even in the full year 2028. So those do incorporate the growth guidance over the same period of, of greater than 30% CAGR. But like any company, we do have some discretion over how we spend. So we'll, we'll, you know, we'll adjust if we need to, to get there.
Thank you very much.
Thanks.