Pennon Group Plc (LON:PNN)
London flag London · Delayed Price · Currency is GBP · Price in GBX
542.00
-7.50 (-1.36%)
May 1, 2026, 4:47 PM GMT
← View all transcripts

H2 23/24 (Q&A)

May 21, 2024

Operator

...Thank you for your patience. We'll now begin the Q&A session. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, you can press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Our first question for today comes from Sarah Lester of Morgan Stanley. The lines are open. Please go ahead.

Sarah Lester
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you.

Thank you very much. Sorry, Susan.

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Good morning, Sarah. Good morning, Sarah. I think we were just gonna do a bit of an intro, if that's okay, because I've got a couple of people waiting this morning.

Sarah Lester
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

No worry.

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Is that okay? Thank you, Sarah. Apologies for that. We'll, we'll get started in a moment. So, welcome, everybody this morning. I'm joined by my Chair, Gill Rider and my CFO, Steve Buck. As you'll have seen in the results presentation this morning, we're joining you here from Devon. While today, we're obviously gonna be talking about the 2023-2024 results at Pennon Group, myself and my colleagues are currently focused on our number one priority, which is the health and safety of our customers and our operational teams, who are working tirelessly around the clock on returning a safe supply of water to the people and businesses in and around Brixham in Devon. But for now, let's turn to the 2023-2024 results. Just a few words from me on those.

I know you've seen the presentation, but just in terms of the summary, this has been a year of securing the building blocks for the long-term business that we are and securing shareholder value for the long term. It has been a transformative year for us as a business, and in fact, it's been a year where we have done what we said we were going to do. We've had record levels of investment, three times the scale of the start of this regulatory period, which sets us in a really good position for going into the next regulatory period with a run rate that matches. We've broken the drought cycle. So we had our drought in 2022, and we've invested significantly.

Yes, we've had the benefit of rainfall, but we have invested significantly, and a third of the improvement in our resource level is down to the fact that we've invested, and we've put investments in that will keep us in a good place on water resources, 25 years. We've retained the gains we made on environmental performance, and we've been reshaping the business. We've delivered synergistic benefits with a solid run rate, again, into the next regulatory period. We've delivered on growth, organic and acquisitive, and acquisitions are on track. We're delivering what we said we would do for those acquisitions. We've righted the balance sheet for those acquisitions that we've invested in, and we are delivering efficiency, which will help with customer bills going forward.

Certainly, sorry, our latest acquisition is fast-tracking through the CMA process, which is great news. So, we know to attract investment, we need investor support. We do have good, strong liquidity, which Steve, I'm sure can talk about this morning. But we recognize the importance of dividend payments as a key element of shareholder return. So we've carefully evaluated the recommended final dividend position to Pennon. We've considered the fact that we've had robust performance in the round for the group, but we've also noted the recent March guidance for wholesale water business dividends.

We have followed the Pennon policy, K7 policy, of increasing the dividend by CPIH + 2%, but we have adjusted the final dividend content by GBP 2.4 million, equivalent to the Sutton and East Surrey Water fine that we got in 2023-2024, signaling that we're listening, and we're clearing the way for long-term shareholder value. So I just wanted to make sure I got those points really clear before we open up the Q&A. So with that, I'll come back to you, Sarah, and apologies for making you wait.

Sarah Lester
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

No, that's, that's all right. I suspected you might want to say something first. Good morning, take two. So I've got two questions, please. The first one is around that extra spend in FY 2024. So I'm just wondering if you could please talk us through a little bit more the thought process, and importantly, that net benefit to longer term shareholder value that you do expect due to the investment and initiatives undertaken during the year. And then my second question is around talent and people resources in the sector. I'm curious as to whether you're seeing people exiting the sector or any challenges with recruitment, given the media attention on the broader space. Thank you.

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Okay. Thank you very much, Sarah. I mean, if I perhaps start with the first one, Steve, and then hand over to you for the CapEx as well. But, if you look at the CapEx split, we have spent, on the water side of the business, we have spent more on the, water resources side. I've just touched on the drought and the expenditure that we've had there. So you know, you will see a peak in investment that we've had for drought, purposes that have come through, as a result of that. But Steve, I don't know if you want to articulate a bit more on the CapEx?

Steve Buck
CFO, Pennon Group

Yeah, sure. So, as you have seen in the presentation, there are two themes to CapEx. So Year 4 is our peak year, and I think everybody knew that Year 4 and 5 were gonna be our peak years from the Final Determination. GBP 80 million of that peak is pulled forward from Year 5 into Year 4. So what's the net benefit of that is, Devon and Cornwall have become resilient to the effects of drought sooner. And that's the timing. It's just a timing matter between Year 4 and Year 5. We have incurred another GBP 80 million, and it's a different GBP 80 million. It's always a bit of a nuisance when you have two 80s, but it's a different GBP 80 million in terms of our base maintenance costs.

We have incurred more base maintenance costs in Year 4. That's to deal with addressing the priorities of pollution, water quality, as well as dealing with the effect of the unprecedented weather that we've experienced throughout the winter. That GBP 80 million isn't a timing thing. That will flow through and be will add to our overspend, so our CapEx spend position. Previously, we guided Year 4 and Year 5, GBP 850 million. That second GBP 80 million means that we'll be at GBP 930 million for the two years cumulative. Of that GBP 80 million, we expect 50% to be recovered through the regulatory mechanism.

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Okay, great. Thank you very much, Steve. Perhaps, so if I just pick up on your question around how we are attracting and retaining talent. Well, I'm joined by my new CFO, Steve Buck, here today. So we are absolutely investing in the community. We have got colleagues who are joining us with the investment plans that we've got. We've obviously had a kick up in the number of people who we've got in the organization, and actually, turnover levels have, in terms of employees, has reduced year on year. What we are doing is making sure that, you know, we are offering, you know, excellent training for people who are joining us.

1 in 10 of our colleagues have been through our apprenticeship or graduate scheme. And, as ever, with a sector like this, yes, we're in the spotlight, but there are excellent roles for individuals with excellent training opportunities for them. And we are obviously recruiting and bringing people into the business. As ever, and I always say this, you know, we are a sector that is in the spotlight, but there is nothing more important than delivering safe, clean drinking water. And the sector is full of people who want to make sure that we can deliver that for our customers. So yes, we're investing in people, and yes, we've got people joining the business. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Campbell of Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

John Campbell
Analyst, Bank of America Corporation

Thank you. Good morning. Three questions, if I can. I've got one on your dividend, one on price review 2024, and one on the incident at the moment with South West Water. So if I start perhaps with the dividend, I saw that you reduced it by GBP 2.4 million related to a fine, which you received in 2023, in May 2023. I noticed separately that the Environment Agency issued a press release on the seventeenth of April, suggesting that you were in court with South West Water for potentially a different case. Is there anything you can say about that case?

Could it be the fact that if it perhaps doesn't go your way, that you could see impacts on the group dividend, this year or potentially in outer years as well, going forward? The second one I wanted to ask you about is price review. So, you've got the people suggesting the concept of Totex reopeners. It was discussed by Chris Walters, in an article on Utility Week. What does Pennon basically heard on this topic? Do you have a view on the idea? And the last one related to the South West Water matter at the moment. So do you have an estimated potential cost relating to compensating customers for the disruption, and any inf- associated infrastructure expenses as well? Thank you.

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Okay, great, John. Good morning to you, and thank you for your questions. Perhaps if I start with the dividend one and then over to you, Steve, for PR24. So the dividend question, you know, look, let's be clear, we have a policy in K7, and we're following that policy. However, we are aware of very recent guidance that Ofwat gave around dividend considerations for water businesses. And we are listening.

Yes, we've made an adjustment to reflect the fact that we had a court fine for South West Water last year, but in effect, you know, what we were doing is just making sure that we were signaling that we were listening, and clearing the way for long-term shareholder value with the dividend policies that we have now, and I'm sure we'll reset for K8. So all we're doing is saying that we are cognizant of the spotlight that we are under. We think it's right that we adjusted the dividends in the round for you know what we had come through last year. And that was on the back of what happened with the court fine for South West Water. But that's not a precedent setter.

That is just something that we took into account. So, that's probably all I wanted to say on the dividend point. And then perhaps over to you, Steve, for PR 24 and Totex reopener.

Steve Buck
CFO, Pennon Group

Yeah, sure. So, yeah. Hi, hi, John. So I mean, I mean, what we're talking about here is uncertainty... which is, you know, this is about a mechanism to deal with uncertainty. And from our perspective, first of all, is that we welcome mechanisms to deal with uncertainty. If you just look at the situation we're in right now, PR24, unprecedented levels of investment. There still is a little bit of movement between various different regulators and government about what are the obligations for PR24. And the reality is that the world doesn't operate in five-year cycles, is what a regulatory price review does. So if there are going to be mechanisms that deal with change or clarity outside of those five-year boundaries, we really welcome it.

We actually think this is good for customers as well, because the last thing we want to find ourselves, and I can totally understand from a regulatory point of view, that we don't want customers paying for things that are unclear. Likewise, we don't want to be in a position where things become clear and there's no mechanism, or you have to wait years for it to true back up again. So absolutely welcome it. Think it's a really good proposal to deal with what is actually, I think, quite a lot of uncertainty around PR24, what's driving those obligations.

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Thanks, Steve. And I think, John, you asked about the incident. So let's be clear, we're just focused on, at this point in time, making sure that we're restoring the service to the customers in Brixham. We've got 85% of customers back on in terms of being able to lift the boil water notice that we have in place. And we've got the remaining 15% of customers to focus on and get that sorted. We have given compensation to household customers in the process of all of that. And the cost of that will be single-digit millions in terms of the cost of what we've announced.

But let's be clear, our focus at the moment is making sure that we're getting supply where it should be for those customers in Brixham, and that's my absolute focus at this point in time.

John Campbell
Analyst, Bank of America Corporation

Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jenny Ping, of Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Jenny Ping
Analyst, Citi

Hi, thanks very much. Morning, everyone. So just following on from John's question around the dividend. So am I understanding this correctly, that you will effectively look at any future fines, whether it's from EA or Ofwat or any other parties on a case-by-case basis, or is this now part of the wider policy? And also, I guess, where do you draw the line? So some of the compensation issues that you've just outlined for your water challenges, drinking water business challenges, is that also going through the dividends? Or how do you draw the line, effectively? Second one, just with regards to the CapEx increase, obviously the additional GBP 80 million this year. I wondered if you could comment about the risk of that going up further.

We've obviously seen a number of increases in terms of the Totex, the last two years of the AMP. So just wondered how confident you are, net, whether you are effectively, you know, have that under control in terms of resolving some of the issues, or could we see prices and costs escalate further? And then just thirdly, just on the balance sheet, noting your net debt, are you still in the camp of being comfortable going into AMP eight without equity? Thank you.

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Thank you very much, and morning, Jenny. I'll start with the first one around the dividends. Look, you're absolutely right in what you said. We've taken this in the round. This is not precedent setting, it's not policy, but we are listening, and we felt it was right to signal, you know, that it was very clearly shareholders who bear the risk of the issue that we saw for South West Water with its environmental fine last time. But we will look at this on a case-by-case basis going forward, and it's right and proper that we do that, but we are signaling that we are listening. Then, Steve, do you want to talk about the CapEx increase?

Steve Buck
CFO, Pennon Group

Yeah. So, Jenny, just to make sure we're talking about the same GBP 80 million. You know, there's this frustration of having two lots of GBP 80 million, but the GBP 80 million I think you're referring to is the base expenditure.

Jenny Ping
Analyst, Citi

Yes, the base one, not... Yes.

Steve Buck
CFO, Pennon Group

Yeah. Yeah, yeah. So, and in terms of that, so I mean, first of all, I just want to just make sure, because you use the word about getting it under control. It is under control. So I wouldn't want to give you the impression that it's not. It has, you know, what we have done is we've deliberately elevated the investment because of all the things I've described about pollutions, leaking, quality program, and the weather. What we'll see in Year 5 is it will return to levels we've seen before, either in prior year and also levels that we've put in our PR24 plan. So it's very much about our return to normal in terms of getting that back to sort of what we're saying in terms of the GBP 90 million-GBP 130 million. Do you want to answer the third one, or do you want?

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Yes, I think that. Thank you, Steve, for that. And then the third one is around net debt and where we see ourselves landing K7 and going into K8. I mean, obviously, slightly higher gearing for this year-end than we had put into our business plan submission. But as we said before, we were comfortably within the 55-65 through the period in K8. With our business plan, obviously, we've got to receive the Draft Determination on the twelfth of June, along with everybody else, and you know, we will work through that process with Ofwat until we get to FC and see where we are. But comfortable that we will land at the end of K7, certainly well within our policy.

We obviously need to understand from Ofwat what the transfer scheme will bring.

Sarah Lester
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Dominic Nash of Barclays. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Dominic Nash
Analyst, Barclays

Good morning. Just a couple of questions from me, please. The first one, going back to the dividend policy again. Is it possible to give us some color on what was actually in the letter that Ofwat, I think, in culture, sent around the water industry, and what the guidance for dividend policy for the sector actually is? And second question I've got was: Could you give us an update on where you think the timeframe for the Ofwat investigations into both your leakage numbers and CSOs are, please? Thank you.

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Yeah, happy to pick those up, John, and good morning. So in terms of the color around the specific dividends, guidance that recently came out from Ofwat, I mean, we did put some notes in the SEA and presentation that we put out this morning. It's probably not going to be a surprise to anybody on the call, but you know, Ofwat is wanting companies to make sure they've considered the dividend position in the round, looking at performance for the business and taking into account what's been delivered to customers. You know, you can see our position today. We've invested heavily. We've got ODIs running at around 70%, one of the best performers in the sector, in that regard.

We've obviously accelerated investments and broken the back of the drought for 2022. So we've taken all sorts into consideration, but the information and guidance from Ofwat obviously wants to make sure that you're picking up all aspects in consideration. And in doing that, we felt it was right to signal that we were listening for this final dividend recommended from today. And in doing that, I think we're clearing the way for long-term shareholder value. I think that's where we are, John, on that one. The second one, on the question around the investigation, yes, we have two Ofwat investigations that are outstanding, one around leakage and one around full flow to treatment. We continue to present information to Ofwat.

In terms of timescales, we haven't been given a definitive timescale to conclusion. But if you're asking me for expectations, you know, I'm hopeful it will be kind of Q2 this financial year. But it really does depend on where we get to with those interactions. Like I say, we haven't had any feedback per se from them, but we are continuing to share information with them.

Dominic Nash
Analyst, Barclays

Thank you. Can I just follow up, your first answer on the general question on performance linking to dividend? Does that mean, do you think that, performance of ODIs becomes increasingly important going forward, that, there'll be pressure, on yourself and other companies if you don't meet the ODI numbers, that the dividend might also need to reflect that as well?

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Well, I think, John, I mean, there is... If we're looking specifically ODIs, when I talk about performance, performance in the round for what we've delivered customers, I just referred to the fact we've done 7% above our ODIs, yes, as a marker of performance, but it's not the only thing to look at. We know that there are mechanisms within the regulatory regime to account for where we do well or indeed, if we fall short already, that pick up financial penalties for ODIs. So I'm not suggesting that there's a mechanistic flow-through for performers.

I think it's a stand back, and the fact that we are performing at 7% levels, which is one of the better performers in the sector in terms of ODIs, just gives a sense of the in-the-round conversation we've had about that. Now, in terms of ODIs, yes, we haven't been in a position where we've been in net rewards for ODIs this regulatory period. They were challenging targets that were set. You know, we have put in for K8 a position that we've put forward around those incentives. We'll see where the DD lands for that. But I've said before, and I'll say again, you know, there are a number of ODIs that are coming into the framework the next time, that are not in the common framework this time, where we do well.

So bathing waters being one of them, the catchment work being another, where we've had a net ODI reward this period of around about GBP 20 million so far. So I'm looking forward to the new regime for incentives. You know, the questions that are being posed and the position that we've taken, we think is the right one, signaling that we're listening and making sure that investors are also getting the dividends that are part of the policy that we set.

Dominic Nash
Analyst, Barclays

... Original filings in South West Water, Bristol Water, and Sutton and East Surrey Water, how have your expectations changed in terms of potential total spend? Because we can't really conceptualize things in one number, as we've seen with the 80. It's a big moving feast. How have your views on CapEx changed within that last nine months?

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Okay. Well, good morning, Mark, and thanks for your questions. I get your observation on the dividend piece, but let's be clear, and I'm going to say it again, this isn't about precedent, precedent setting. This isn't about changing a policy. This is just we're listening, and we're listening to the very recent guidance that's come out from Ofwat. So, you know, that, that's all I'll comment on, on that one, Mark.

I think the second one, in terms of, yes, last nine months since we've put the business plan in, we always said at the time when we put the business plan in, we're, we're very confident about what we put forward, we're very clear with the work that we've done and to understand, the environmental obligations and, what we needed to do to invest to improve aspects there. We've had our WINEP agreed. Yes, there are items that, which are on the call, which may come up as reopeners, but I would welcome that as a, as a process to go through. So I think we are sat here confident with the plan that we submitted, confident that we're on with it. We've got our, supply chain in place.

We've had that in place since last autumn, and they're working on 1,000 projects already. So, you know, we're doing this, we're delivering it, and, you know, we'll be confident when we get to the Draft Determination that whatever we see in that, we've got the right plan. So, I don't think there's anything that's shifted our view, Mark. Obviously, we have had wet weather, but you'll see in the presentation, you know, things where, if I take solutions on the investment side, we've been investing heavily in networks, where we've seen 70% of our solutions occurring in networks. And actually going through the wet weather, the networks have held up pretty well after all that investment.

Yes, it's been good because it's given us the opportunity to see, you know, where our other assets, like compensation, are and how they're operating. But we're confident we've got the right plan. And indeed, going back to the CapEx question that you had earlier, our run rate for base expenditure is our run rate going into K8. So yes, it's slightly elevated above K7 allowances, but it's the run rate going into K8, so we're confident of the plan we've put in, Mark.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ajay Patel of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Ajay Patel
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thanks. I guess it's almost going to seem like I'm laboring on the point, but I'm not sure I fully understand some of the answers yet. So if you look at the dividend and the adjustment for the small fine that we had today, and then you look on page 24, where there's the contingencies and the potential scopes for fines, I don't understand that. That's like today we're announcing an adjustment of GBP a few million to the dividend, and yet you're listening. But if any of these contingent outcomes actually result in a fine, that you don't follow the same direction, what is different between the two that would make a different approach?

Because at the moment, I'm not kind of getting one or the other and why case by case is the right approach here. Seems like if you were to get a fine on this side of the equation, that it would result in the same thing. It'd be very difficult to justify otherwise, wouldn't it? Just any more commentary to help me think of the logic behind that would be really helpful.

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Okay. Thanks, Ajay, and good morning. I mean, I think I'm going to keep coming back to, you know, you've got to look at performances around the business, but then, recognizing, the criteria that Ofwat has put into licenses, for the water businesses, and that all water businesses, and let me be clear, this criteria has been given to all water companies to assess and to understand. We've taken our performance in the round, and we felt that it's right this time to make an adjustment. Now, depending on where we get to, with some of those investigations, obviously, going forward, we want to make sure we're again reflecting, our performance in the round. Now, we've got every expectation of delivery, of delivering for customers, of delivering for the environment.

So no, this isn't, in my view, a precedent set, it is just reflecting where we are and signaling that we're listening.

Ajay Patel
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our final question for today comes from Pavan Mahbubani of JP Morgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Pavan Mahbubani
Analyst, JPMorgan Chase & Co

Hi, team. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have a few, please. Firstly, when we look at the GBP 930 million of CapEx in the water business over the coming years, can you clarify how much is base spend and how much is overspend? My understanding is the incremental new base GBP 80 million that you talked about, Steve, that's going to be considered overspend as it runs through the Totex mechanism. Secondly, on the dividend, when we're thinking about next year's dividend, I understand the in the round discussions, but when we think of the basis on which we should be judging the CPIH + 2, would that be on the GBP 44.37 dividend that you've talked about today?

Or will the growth be based on a, quote-unquote, ex fine number, this sort of GBP 0.452 per share? And then my final question is on the gearing. You talk about 63.5% for the... I, am I right in understanding that's just for the water business? And does that assume some leverage at the group level for Pennon Power, and does that number already strip out the fair value adjustments? Those are my questions. Thank you.

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Steve, do you want to go on the CapEx?

Steve Buck
CFO, Pennon Group

Yeah, CapEx. So, just in terms of sort of what's funding the 930, so it's probably important to sort of just remember that obviously it's a five-year picture, as you know. So, what's funding all of that is the price reviews, the agreement for green recovery, the accelerated infrastructure, plus there was previously signaled the reinvestment of our performance. So that all sort of funded about the reinvestment of our performance will qualify for a customer sharing at K8, at the beginning of K8. So then if you go to this 18, just to be clear, it's the 80 on base, because the enhancement one is timing only.

The 80 will be classed as an overspend, and therefore also subject to the customer sharing, and therefore will get 50%. We expect to get 50% back through the true-up mechanism at the beginning of K8.

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Yeah. So then dividends in terms of... I think the next one, AJ, was your question around dividends and how would we think about next year's. So, the adjustment that we've made this year was a one-off adjustment to the policy stance, so it will be inflating from the policy position. And the last one was on gearing?

Steve Buck
CFO, Pennon Group

Yeah. So I could do it. On gearing, yeah, so 63.5% is South West Water Group. And just to remind, that does currently exclude Sutton and East Surrey, sorry. Well, when we report next, assuming that we've had a successful clearance from the CMA, that will be included in our gearing. So 63.5% is water only. We do have a few more percent gearing. It's about 4% gearing up at the group level, which is to do with Pennon Power, as you quite rightly say, the PWS business, and also timing between South West and Pennon.

Operator

Thank you. We do have another question from Bart Kubicki of Bernstein. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Bartłomiej Kubicki
Analyst, Bernstein

Thank you very much. Good morning. Just three things I would like to discuss. First, on the ongoing investigations and potential fines, I think for the first time in the press release, we have specified that the relevant revenues for the sewage treatment works investigation is the regulated wastewater, while for the leakage data is the drinking water revenues. Are you confident that these are the relevant revenues of what may be looking at while calculating the potential fine, and consequently, what the maximum fine could be on those two investigations? Secondly, if we look at your incorporation of Bristol Water, you are talking about synergies. I just wonder whether we see those synergies somewhere in your RORE outperformance.

And consequently also, if you look at AMP8, whether you have taken those synergies into account in your business plan, so consequently, there will be no outperformance in AMP8 because of the consolidation, or there is still room for outperformance in AMP8. And last point on inflation, when you give your RORE guidance, you are saying that, of course, inflation will negatively impact your financial outperformance. That's certainly clear. But would it have any impact on your Totex underperformance? Meaning, will lower inflation decrease the scope of Totex underperformance, excluding for the additional CapEx spend you have in 2024? Thank you.

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Okay, well, thank you very much for your questions this morning. First one, I think, around the relevant revenue for the fines. I mean, obviously, we've looked at, you know, the precedent for all those, and how they are positioned. So yes, what you've got in the stock exchange announcement around that is our understanding of it. So for the leakage investigation, it would be for the sea water, drinking water revenue, and for the wastewater investigation, it would be for the wastewater revenue as a fine levied if there were findings that led to that. Second question around the Ofwat performance?

Steve Buck
CFO, Pennon Group

Yeah. So that was the synergies around Bristol. So where do you find them? So they are in our Totex. If you look at the cost base for Southwest Group, Southwest Group cost base is broadly flat, even after allowing for the effect of the weather on the business. So it's in the Totex you see right now, therefore, it's flowing through into the RORE. In terms of PR24, yeah, everything gets reset at PR24, and then we have to go again. Hence, that's why you're hearing us call out the efficiency program for K8.

In terms of inflation, I think you're asking a question about, as we're heading into a lower inflation environment, does that change our forecast in terms of the CapEx outlook for Year 4 and 5? That 930 number is based on sort of our current view of the effect inflation is having on our cost base.

Gill Rider
Chair, Pennon Group

If I may here, I was more wondering about Totex underperformance, whether moving from high inflationary environment to low inflationary environment will impact the Totex outperformance or underperformance.

Steve Buck
CFO, Pennon Group

I, I, I-

Gill Rider
Chair, Pennon Group

So meaning whether a portion of your Totex underperformance has been caused by high inflation.

Steve Buck
CFO, Pennon Group

Yeah, yeah. So, the numbers that we've been talking about sort of factor that in already.

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Yeah, and you'll see in the presentation, I mean, we've been holding our own in terms of cost, and indeed, as you referred to, we've got the synergies we've been delivering, so that's keeping the cost base as efficient as it can be, and we've got more efficiencies to come.

Gill Rider
Chair, Pennon Group

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We have a question from Dominic Nash of Barclays. Your lines are open. Please go ahead.

Dominic Nash
Analyst, Barclays

Hi there. Yeah, apologies for bookending another question, too. I'm just sort of curious, actually. This is probably one of the sort of few times, I guess, you're gonna talk before we go into the draft. But in AMP7, yourself and the entire industry has basically underperformed on Totex and on ODIs, and financing has kind of helped you all out. But in light of the financing should sort of mean revert and inflation is going down, et cetera, et cetera, that's clearly something you shouldn't rely on going forward. What... when will you be in a position to know what you're going to perform against ODIs and Totex after, say, the DD or into the FD?

Do you think that if you're in a position where you think that you're unable to on those two, do you think that that would be something that you would then consider going to the CMA over? Or do you think that you could tolerate another AMP with negative Totex and ODI numbers?

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Okay, thanks, Dom. All great questions, but unfortunately, as you might imagine, I'm gonna say, we need to see where we get for the Draft Determination and get through the process to Final Determination. There's a few months between them, and we haven't seen our draft yet. So all great questions. The one thing I'm gonna come back to is we put in a really good plan. It was an ambitious plan, but it was one that we have worked really hard to make sure that we are already in the position to start delivering against it. So we've got a great plan.

We've put it in, we've put forward what we think are sensible, investment numbers, sensible, ODI, framework, and we'll see where Ofwat lands on the twelfth, and then we've got a process to walk through to that. We'll obviously, you know, look at what comes out on the twelfth, and, I'm sure, given the team I've got around me, we, we will be having, you know, some discussion, on the twelfth with everybody, just to update them in terms of where we are and what that looks like for us. But plenty to work through between drafts and final. All good questions, Dom. Thank you.

Dominic Nash
Analyst, Barclays

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we currently have no further questions, so I'll hand back to the management team for any concluding remarks.

Susan Davy
CEO, Pennon Group

Okay, thank you very much, Alex. So with that, I'm gonna hand over to Gill.

Gill Rider
Chair, Pennon Group

Well, firstly, let me say thank you to Susan and Steve for taking you all through it. And thank you for all your questions, which were, as ever, very thoughtful. I'd just like to return to where we started today and take you back to if ever we needed a reminder of the importance of what we as the water sector do every day, it's the experiences of people and the businesses in and around Brixham at the moment that remind us of the importance. And also, you know, we've done a lot of questions here, but our responsibilities really do extend far and wide, and it's beyond the pipes, the treatment works, and the reservoirs, because we're investing in climate change and protecting the environment and ensuring water resources are there now and for generations to come.

And Pennon is really well positioned to do this, and clearly, headlines of the day always affect how we think about the business. But we are ready to make record levels of investment, and we are transforming what we do and how we do it. Our commitment to the water sector in the UK is very clear, but we couldn't do any of this without you, our shareholders and investors. And so I just want to end by saying thank you for your loyalty and your support and your questioning, which always makes us think. So thank you all very much.

Operator

Thank you all for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

Powered by