Hello, welcome to the Persimmon Trading Update Analyst Conference Call. Throughout the call, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards, there will be a question and answer session. Just to remind you, this conference call is being recorded. Today, I'm pleased to present David Jenkinson, our CEO. Please go ahead with your meeting.
Thank you, Naz. Good morning, everybody, and thanks for taking the trouble to ring in. I'd like to have a quick look back at 2019 then move on to where the company's positioned looking into 2020. In 2019, I've been delighted with the progress we have made following my strategic decision to put customers before volume and with the implementation of the customer care improvement plan. Most of the moving parts of the plan are now embedded in the business, and we are starting to see tangible improvements, not simply in the HBF star rating, but across the whole business in our relationship with our customers. I am particularly pleased that while seeing an improvement in customer service, we have been able to maintain our industry-leading financial performance, and I anticipate the group pre-tax profits will be in line with market consensus for 2019.
This shows the fundamental financial strength of the business. It's too early to read anything into the impact of the general election on sales rates, the early signs are encouraging, with visitor levels and website activity both ahead of this time last year. How this materializes into the spring selling season, we will monitor with keen interest to ensure we achieve a correct balance between sales rate and price. To be clear, not at the cost of our customers by selling too far ahead, so we are unable to provide accurate customer moving in dates in time to follow our customer control process. Customers will continue in 2020 to be put before volume. I believe we are in a very strong position to take advantage of any improvements in the market and building our strong current forward sales position if we do see some improvement.
We have an excellent range of both large and small outlets throughout the country, offering homes at all price points to all customers. With 20 outlets held back with active whip taking place and a similar number with infrastructure being implemented as we talk. We have increased whip on the ground, which is getting towards optimum level. We plan to open a further 80 new outlets during half one of 2020. The business has strong liquidity and industry-leading land banks, which gives us optionality, control, and flexibility how to deal with the future. Most importantly, we have a very strong team of committed and talented people. To be clear, it is too early to give any specific guidance for 2020, and I'm not forecasting any change to our previous guidance.
Other than if there was a material change in the market, we have positioned the business in the best place to take advantage of it. Thank you. Well, just as normal, if we want to open up for any questions now, we can go straight to the lines.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you do wish to ask a question, please press 01 on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw your question, you may do so by pressing 02 to cancel. There'll be a brief pause while any questions are being registered. Our first question comes from the line of Glynis Johnson from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Morning, Glynis.
Good morning to you. Just one question actually for me, just in terms of site numbers. You instantly talk about 365 developments under construction. I just want to check if that number is comparable to the average 350 you gave us back in November. I also want to check what the expectations are in terms of sites that you'll close through the first half. I'm wondering if you can give any sort of indication where you think you may end up in six months' time in terms of the number of sites under development. Lastly, I'm not sure if I misunderstood within, I couldn't quite catch within your opening statement. You talked about a certain number of, I think, sites that were under construction in addition. Forgive me, I just didn't quite hear.
If you could just clarify what you said in terms of site where you're putting infrastructure within place?
Yes. We've got 365 sites in construction, as you say. Nigel will give a bit more color to that. We have 345 active sites with sales which are taking place. On top of that, we've got another 20 sites where we've got active WIP, which is quite a developed stage where we've taken the decision not to release on them, where traditionally we may have. On top of that, we have another 20 sites where we've got infrastructure taking place, roads, sewers, site remodeling, for example, where we haven't actually started to put any unit build in place. Nigel, do you want to pick on the numbers?
I think just in terms of I mean, that really covers it, though. Just in terms of the view forward, in terms of average site numbers, we'd expect to be on par with what we saw in 2019, if not see a little bit of extra strength developing as we move through the year. Yeah, as Dave says, we've got a good pipeline, good visibility. Specifically on your closings, I think we'll be able to keep pace, opening up new sites as we come through, and that should provide us with a stable to slightly positive platform to support delivery to customers as we move through the year.
I'm just, sorry, trying to see if I can tie it into the number that you gave us in the November update, which talked about an average of 350. Was that 350 a total number? Was it compared to any one of those numbers?
The 350 at that point was sales outlets. We had a handful more just at that point that were active and selling. Since then, obviously, some have shut, a few have opened. The average for the second half of this year, I think, was about 347, 345, 347. As always, the exact timing of this, it's not exactly precise science, but it's around that sort of level.
Thank you.
Thanks, Glynis.
Thanks, Glynis.
The next question comes from the line of Arnaud Lehmann from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, gentlemen.
Hi, Arnaud.
Two questions for me, if I may. Firstly, do you have a first view of cost inflation for 2020? Is it more wages related or materials and construction? That's my first question. Secondly, if we take the view that maybe the visibility on the economy is a little bit better, the consumer confidence is improving, and suddenly you were to see into the spring selling season an acceleration in demand, how would you combine that in terms of strategy with the fact that you don't want to rush sales, that you've held back a few sites? Would you be ready to some extent, like you did in 2019, to lose a little bit of market share, if I may call it this way, and to slightly underperform the market to keep focus on the customer side?
I think, to deal with the first one first. I think it's important to point out that we've been seeing for some time that build costs have been starting to stabilize, specifically in terms of the labor element. We are still seeing some cost pressures around materials. Not across the board, with some materials getting reasonably high increases, while other costs are actually deflationary. There's not one simple pattern that fits everything in terms of build cost. What I would say is, looking forward, I think we're probably going to see a little bit more pressure on materials and potentially a little bit less pressure on labor, especially if we don't see any uptake in spring selling season.
What we would expect to see an increase of around 2%, 2.5%, 3%, something like that for 2020, but a lot will depend upon the demand for sales, which drives actual demand for the construction.
Sure.
I think one last point on that, Arnaud, is obviously with the exit from the EU impact on sterling, on imported elements, which do form a part to a degree, and future tariff regime, it's hard to second-guess what may emerge from that. It's something that is an aspect of how this year will develop, I guess.
In terms of volume growth, which is effectively what you're alluding to. To be clear, as I said in the opening statement, we'll continue to put customers before volume. The business is in a big different position to what we were 12 months ago. We do have more work on the ground. We do have the opportunity to take advantage of that work if we chose to. To be clear, we would not do that if it meant that we couldn't meet the criteria that we set out we were going to do in terms of getting more accurate move-in dates, better quality of houses, and a better customer experience. A lot will depend upon the demand to that effect. If it was a marginal increase, I imagine we could absorb some volume growth.
If it was to be a material increase, I'll be quite happy to say that, to lose that element of market share, as you describe, in the short term. What I would point out, though, let's not forget, we have a nationwide coverage of 31 companies, and even if we took a conservative estimate of 600 units per company, it gives you a gauge of what the potential would be. My focus would be during 2020, we continue as we are, ASP at the optimum level. If the opportunity for a bit more volume comes along, of course, we would take it. Not at the cost of customers.
That's very clear. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from the line of Ian Zimmerman from Canaccord. Please go ahead.
All right. Morning. Thanks. Yeah. three questions from me, if I could, please. Just firstly, consensus, obviously you say in line. Just want to confirm your view of consensus was around, I think, 1,042 seems to be on Reuters for 2019. secondly, just on land replacement, I think you replaced around 10,000 plots. Should we read anything into that? Is that a more cautious land spend in 2019, given all the election uncertainty there? Will that move back up or are you just willing to shrink the land bank a bit? certainly just on the independent review, obviously, you counted just before Christmas. Any change in your thoughts about, as you digested what you saw there, whether it's in the cost GBP billion or just the kind of priorities you'll be focusing on for 2020? Thanks.
Well, you want to deal with consensus, Mike, and I'll pick up the other two?
Yeah, consensus is very straightforward. At GBP 1.04 billion is where we are. I think we're fine with that for pre-tax profits for 2019. David, do you want to cover the land side?
I'll cover the land one, yeah. As we've said for some time, we believe we've got the leading land bank in the industry, which has taken a long time to develop, and it dates back to us, our investment back in the bottom of the recession. That is something which we've earned, something which puts us in a unique position and gives us optionality within the marketplace of when we need to go back into the market and when we don't. It's more about, for me, being disciplined. If we can buy land at the right rates with the right returns, I'm more than happy to make the investment. What we saw during 2019, there wasn't quite as many deals available as what we hoped there would be available or to maintain what we were actually land replacement rates. That doesn't mean to say that's a problem.
I'm quite happy to see the land bank drift back if necessary. We'll continue to be selective in what we buy during 2020. A lot will depend upon what happens in the market during 2020 in terms of land. Personally, I think there may continue to be a little bit more demand. What we are seeing there in the market is a bit more activity from the small to medium-sized players in the land market, and it is a little bit more difficult to buy land at our hurdle rates we look to achieve, which is why the land bank has drifted back a little bit during 2019. That could possibly happen in 2020. I think for where we are now, I would assume that we're probably going to be slightly cash generative in our land replacement rather than cash absorption.
Right.
The independent review. Well, as we've said before we commissioned the independent review, we weren't going to wait for it to be published. We were going to get on the front foot. If you look back to our half-year results presentation in September, you will see a lot of the stuff that came out in the independent review we were already on with in terms of our customer care improvement plan. There's no doubt the independent review has given us a bit more food for thought and given a bit more energy and a bit more clarity and a bit more direction, which we will be accepting of, specifically the Persimmon way of building. In terms of cost, I don't think it signals a big material change in there.
There may be some extra investment around the fringes. Fundamentally, we've been front running this independent review and a lot of the recommendations for some time. It's pretty much covered in the guidance we've given you previously.
Great. All very clear. Thanks very much.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Chris Millington from Numis. Please go ahead.
Morning, Dave. Morning, Mike.
Hi, Chris.
Hi. A few from me, if possible.
Yeah, I'll get Persimmon.
You know me, Mike. It won't be that long. First and foremost, we've heard a few comments around the start of year, end of year trend. I'm just wondering if you could flesh out a bit. It sounds like you're seeing a slightly better activity. I just wonder if you could put a few figures on those different numbers or something like that, just a touch more detail. Next one's really just on where you are on stock levels. I presume you've got some sort of measure you're monitoring period over period. Perhaps just a little bit more on that. Then I'd just like to go back quickly to Dave's comment on we feel we're now pretty much at the optimal width. I take your point, Dave, that you probably will release a bit of cash from land investment this year.
Is it fair to say we're almost on kind of an even keel with regard to width as well as we look through this year, obviously depending on market conditions?
I think, Chris, to be fair, dealing with the third one first, I think it links to the second one as well in terms of stock levels. I think you're right. We've almost got into a neutral position where we've made probably another GBP 40 million, GBP 50 million worth of investment in the second half. As you know, my target for width was 32% of sales, forward sales, which I think we'll be around there. It's a bit early to be exact because the numbers haven't come together, we feel that sort of number will be around there, which means it gives us the opportunity to provide much more accurate dates, sell at a much further stage. It means that fundamentally, we can provide much better service to our customers and better quality of homes.
I don't foresee a massive increase of investment beyond where we will be at the end of this year. There may be a little bit more, but not material. As you said, with the land, I think at most it'll be replacement. However, I think we'll probably be a little bit more cash generative rather than absorbent. I think in terms of we are going to move to that neutral description you described. Simply, what cash we produce less tax will be free cash potentially to do what we see fit with, and that gives us options in terms of our capital returns. In terms of year-end trends, it is very early to see. What we can see, since Christmas, there's been a lot more website activity, and it's ahead of where it was this time last year.
Visitor levels have been ahead of where it was this time last year. Our sales reservation rates have been encouraging, slightly ahead of where we were last year, taking account of the reduced outlets. Generally, it feels quite positive, but I think it would be foolish if we try to read too much into something too early. I'd be misleading you to try and do that. I think we just got to wait and see. I come back to what I said in my opening statement. If there is an upside, we've positioned this business in the best position to take advantage of it if we choose to. We'd only choose to do that if we could do it in the right way by protecting our customers.
Got you. Very helpful. Thank you. Yes, please.
The next question comes from the line of Gregor Kuglitsch from UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. Happy New Year.
Morning, Gregor.
Hi. A couple of questions, please. Firstly, this is just maybe a numbers question. What was the actual sales rate at the end for the year last year, sort of against the 0.7 for 2018? Just so we have that, it would be helpful. Secondly, again, a bit technical, but social was very high. Can you just steer whether that was kind of abnormally so and therefore will unwind a bit in FY 2020? Then, I guess, a question on margins. Obviously, I think you said you haven't changed your kind of outlook, and I think before that you were pointing to, I think you called it a drift on margin, I believe. I think you probably ended the year at 30.5 or something like that, if I'm not mistaken.
I just want to get a sense whether that view still holds, if you have a drift and whether it's against that 30.5 or against the second half or how you're thinking about the margin trajectory. Finally, sorry, this is actually morphing into four questions. The land bank length, how low do you think you can go? Obviously, you franked it maybe, it was very marginal, maybe 0.1, and there was six last year. How low can that go? Can you be as low as five on that? Just to give us a sense how much of the sort of flexibility is that you've got.
Do you want to do the first three, mate, then I'll come back to the land bank question.
Yeah. On the sales, Greg, as usual, it's a tale of two halves. Autumn is always a little bit slower than spring. That's how it panned out again this year. Just to remind you, in the first half we did about 0.74 of a private sale site per week. In the second half, we did about 0.62-ish, leaving the full year about 0.68. You can see against last year, first half PD sales rate was about 5% lower. Actually, the second half panned out almost even Stevens. Slightly ahead, if anything. Leaving our full year PD sales rate at 0.68, around 2% lower than the prior year. On the mix of sales, yes, social, the housing association sales are a little bit higher this time around. It's a good question in terms of how that's going to pan out this year.
I suspect it might pan out to be something similar for 2020, given the direction of planning. Dave is obviously more expert in this area than I am. The general thrust of government policy, which obviously we support in full, is to deliver housing across tenure types. It will be interesting to see how planning direction in terms of meeting housing need develops. I could see that may become the new norm, if you will, in terms of a bit more affordable in our mix moving forward. Again, it's a bit early to be exactly precise about that. Margins, we still say we're still advocates of a bit of a drift on margin, nothing substantial.
We've got obviously the full effect of the investment we are making in quality assurance and customer care to take account of in 2020, together with the aforementioned mix effect on social, et cetera. I think a bit of drift. I think the land bank is in great nick. It's of very high quality. As Dave said, we're trying to defend the return levels embedded there that Dave's already mentioned. Dave, I don't know if you want me to talk about the land banking that-
Yeah. I think it's important to realize what's a normal in an industry and what's historically what length of land bank you have. The normal period of land bank, especially in this planning round, will be around four years. You may ask the question, why do we have six years? That's because we are in a cyclical industry, and we look to buy land at the right time in that cycle. I'm particularly proud that as a business, we've invested at the right times in the right cycle. We have six years, in reality, that is a bit too long. We are very long on land. In reality, we'd be more than comfortable operating it for four, if necessary. My priority is to not dilute the quality of the land bank we've got.
If necessary, if we were to carry on the way we are at the moment, by about six years' time, I think we'll be down to a four-year land bank, which I'll be very, very comfortable with. An important other bit of the jigsaw, which is important to point out here, is also our strategic land. We have an excellent strategic land bank, which isn't included in these numbers. For example, we have another 20,000 plot allocated, which isn't in our land bank numbers yet. Even if we were almost to remove completely from the land market, we would still have a good stream of strategic coming through. What does that actually mean in reality, Gregor? It means we have options. We can play what we see. If we see good deals at the right returns or the right size, then we're happy to buy it.
If we don't see the right deal at the right size, then we're happy to see it drift back.
Got it. It's really helpful. Thank you.
Thanks, Greg.
The next question comes from the line of Clyde Lewis from Peel Hunt. Please go ahead.
Morning, Dave. Morning, Mike.
Morning, Clyde.
Morning, Clyde.
Three, if I may, as well. Firstly, on sort of selling prices and I suppose incentives as well as sort of through the back end of the year. If you could sort of give us a little bit more color about sort of what you were seeing there in terms of sort of whether you were able to move headline prices at all and what was happening on incentives. Second one was on regional variations. I mean, you haven't really said anything so far today. I'm just wondering, has there been any that sort of note? Lastly, really was on Help to Buy and just sort of been intrigued to hear how that has evolved in terms of sort of usage, again, through the second half of 2019.
Okay. I'll touch on two and a bit of one, and I'll let Mike pick up on three and one. In terms of regional variations, nothing's really changed as yet. It's too early to tell. The market, as we consistently been seeing for the last 24 months, in the Southeast, it's a bit more difficult. Larger four beds are a bit more difficult. Our core market area, the demand is very robust, and there's incredibly strong demand for first-time buyers. There's no real change, and that pattern is pretty much similar across the country. If you have the right site with the right product, then there's good demand in the economy.
Yeah.
In terms of selling prices, I think Mike can give a bit more color of where I am on this. I think it's too early to call. I'm not in a position where we're going to be looking to move selling prices yet. That, to me, would be a bit too much of a knee-jerk reaction. I've not seen enough demand or a wave of people coming through the door just suddenly to make us think that we can move selling prices. The reality of it is, selling prices or increases are a lot more difficult than what people think. You can put a selling price up, but a lot of this is controlled by valuers. If you are going to increase prices, this idea you can wake up one day and suddenly put GBP 20,000 on a price, it doesn't work like that in reality.
What you have to do is make it small and regular if you are going to do price increases. I don't think what I can say at the moment that the level of demand is going to be there where suddenly we'll be looking to large price increases. I think it's more likely that it's going to be a gradual thing as people become more confident in the economy and some of the investments the government's intended to make, it becomes embedded in the economy. I don't know what you've got on selling prices, Mike.
Yeah. I mean, just to throw a couple of bits of data at you, Clyde. When we look in our forward orders, on our PD, we've got about just shy of 3,300 private units forward sold at December, which is about 450 down on where we were at the same point last year, as we touched on sales rates et cetera. When you look at the average selling price in there, we're actually about 1.7% ahead at just shy of GBP 246,500 on PD against GBP 242,250, the same point last year. 1.7% in terms of PD ASP forward sold vis-a-vis same point last year, which demonstrates sort of resilience, a little bit of growth, as Dave says, but not dramatic.
That I think is a fair, that David's indicating a fair indicator, of there probably will be some modest improvement through this year, but we need to see how the market develops. On the Help to Buy side, I think it's been a similar sort of picture for us. As you know, we have positioned the business to offer homes for all, if you will, with a weighting towards first-time buyers and first-time movers. Those attract those types of customers which then have the ability to choose to use the government's Help to Buy scheme to support that purchase. I think it's interesting, we've all been provided with budgets for this year through to the end of the scheme. It'll be interesting to see how that develops, given the non-first-time buyers. Obviously, the scheme comes to an end for that cohort of potential purchasers.
It'll be interesting to see how the market activity around that cohort of potential customer works through this year. Again, going back to government policy, I think the Discounted Open Market Value idea, which I know David has been quite a big advocate of some time, is again, an interesting development, and that might provide good support for those types of customers moving forward.
Okay. All right.
Just one thing to point out on selling prices, just to be clear, our numbers are not dependent on selling price increase. If we were to see a 2.5% build cost increases, 1% inflation and revenue, we're probably in a neutral position in line with what we're forecasting and what we're guiding to. If I was somebody selling price increases, that would be on the upside for us.
Yeah. Perfect. Thank you very much, guys.
The next question comes from the line of Charlie Campbell from Liberum. Please go ahead.
Hi, everyone. A couple of questions, really.
Hello, Charlie.
Hello. A couple of questions, really. This was first of all on the retention scheme. Just wondered if you could give us an update on how widely used that is and experience so far. Then I think you could probably work it out from the information you've given, just to help us, just to give us the volume in the forward orders, that'd be helpful. Perhaps you can split that out between private and social. Also, it'd be very helpful for models and things. Thank you very much.
Do you want to pick up two, Mike, and I'll pick up the other?
Yeah, no problem. On the forward order side, Charlie, we have just shy of 7,700 units new homes forward sold in the forward orders at the end of December 2019. That is split, as I said, circa 3,300 on PD, the remainder on the affordable side. That compares with around about 37 on PD this time last year and about 4,200 on the HCA. In terms of volumes, we're up about 450. Sorry, down about 450 on private, we're up about 200 on HCA. Net down about 250 overall. I've already referenced the ASPs in there.
Yeah.
If you look at the PD forward sell position, if you take a view on, well, what could be delivered in the first half, it gives you a picture of good, strong forward sales support for the first half. That sets us up nicely to be able to work with the market, if you will, as it develops through Brexit and the like, to deliver what we'd like to deliver for the first half of the year. We feel quite sanguine about the forward sell position at this point.
Yeah.
In terms of the retention, I'm now happy to say we've got agreement from all the major lenders. From February 2020, we expect to be able to have our biggest lender offering it to our customers as well. We should see an uptick in numbers. As we speak here at the moment, we've had over 2,000 customers take advantage of the retention proposal. Over 1,000 of them have been completions. The feedback's been positive. The most pleasing thing for me is that I've actually seen a change in focus in the business. It's a real change in culture for people to get the houses right first time.
There's a lot more focus around that kind of the key release in the first week after to make sure we resolve any issues as soon as they're there rather than waiting for longer time and let them fester. I think it's great that we've given empowered our customers and given them that flexibility and ability to take advantage of it if they choose to. Just as importantly, I think it's an important cultural signal in the business, and I'm really pleased with the impact and how people have accepted them and been within the business. We're already seeing signs that the quality of houses we're handing over is better at key release.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Charlie.
Thanks, Charlie.
The next question comes from the line of Jon Bell from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Morning, Jon.
Yeah, good morning, gents. I think I've got three as well.
Popular number, three, isn't it?
It is.
Lucky number.
First up, the HBF star ratings. You talked about 31 operating companies. I'm just interested in any trends, north versus south, Persimmon versus Charles Church, anything that you're seeing there in the business. Secondly, your brick factory, have you still got it? Is it still running? That kind of thing. Thirdly, capital returns. I'm guessing we're looking ahead really at February. Could we be thinking about a change in the structure of those returns in any way? Thank you.
I'll let you do capital returns, and I'll pick the other two up with Mike.
Yeah. I'll just quickly on the capital return. I'm going to deadbat that, John.
Okay.
We'll update as we normally do in February. Obviously, it's an issue that we're currently discussing. We'll give you the details at the prelims.
The easy one first, the brick factory. Yes, we've still got it. Yes, we are building approximately 50 million bricks a year from there. We have reviewed the detail of the bricks in terms of how they look a little bit. We've widened the range we have available throughout the company, we make a wider use of them. Yeah, the brick factory is firmly established. We're happy with how it's working. It continues to supplement the clear bricks we buy from our main supplier. In terms of HBF star rating, what we have seen is that the poorer companies have improved, that's not a geographical trend. As we've always said, it's been a demand-led trend. It's been where we've seen the highest demand, them places where the biggest demand for first-time buyers is.
Them businesses are spread throughout the country, ironically, rather than just in the South how you may have thought. I'm really pleased. The actions we've taken in them businesses where they were unable to release until they got a roof has made a material change in them businesses. We're nearly through the backlog of the reservations we'd taken previously before we changed the policy. By the time we get to quarter one of 2020, I think there should be no legacy plots left, which should make a difference to our rating moving forward. There's no real trend other than it's simply related to where we had the highest demand.
Okay, thank you. I think as you pre-empted one of my questions, I might ask a cheeky additional one, if that's possible.
Go on then, Jon.
Thank you very much. The Discounted Open Market Value idea, you said Dave is a big advocate. Could you just talk us through how that might impact the split of private and affordable and the ASPs of affordable?
I'm not going to answer that question because it'll depend upon how plan and policy gets developed in terms of what the % of it is, how it comes along. If that provides additionality, et cetera. What I will say, and this is why I've been advocating this for some time, and I thoroughly support the government in it will provide people who can't at the moment get on the housing ladder due to their salary. It's a completely new group of people would be able to access the market. We do quite a bit of this in the North, and it's very successful.
What I personally would like to see that go a little bit further, the big problem with Discounted Open Market Value housing at the moment is it doesn't qualify for Help to Buy, so you still need a reasonable deposit, which means the cost can be quite high. Personally, I believe if you want to provide Discounted Open Market Value housing with Help to Buy, it could be a real game changer and enable a lot more people in society, them people who at the moment are just missing out, to access the housing market, specifically in the Southeast. Quite cleverly, regardless of what that means for the business, but I think it'll be too early to say. What I am sure is I think it'll be good for society, and I think it'll be good to get more people on the housing ladder.
I think the basic distinction, Jon, obviously Discounted Open Market sales are what it says on the tin, in a way. Those are sales into the private market, albeit there is a restriction in terms of market value in terms of the discount attached.
It should purchase our profile in effect.
Yes.
We don't know to what extent yet. There's no doubt you got more purchasers who you'd be able to provide houses for.
Yeah
Slightly less revenue, but we don't actually know how it's going to materialize yet. I think it's a positive for the housing sector.
Understood. Thanks, gents.
Thanks, Jon.
The next question comes from the line of Andy Murphy from Whitman Howard. Please go ahead.
Morning, Andy.
Hi, Andy.
Morning. Hi, Dave. Morning, Mike. I'm going to break with tradition and just go with two questions, if I may. First of all, on the forward sales, has there been any change to the distance out that you take your forward sales out until, either shorter or longer? I know one of your competitors has perhaps changed, but I wonder how you were thinking about how that might change going forward given what you've done around the quality issues. Secondly, on PRS and build sales, were they only in 2019, and how do you feel about 2020? Are you likely to go down the route of PRS sales?
You do one, and I'll do two then, Mike.
Yeah. In terms of selling forward, Andy, which I think is the essence of what your question is, if I understand it correctly.
Correct. Yeah.
With the discipline on sales release, we've actually shortened the period to which we would forward sell. Obviously we want to provide greater accuracy of prospective moving in dates as part and parcel of delivering on the improved customer service package. I think we've actually shortened that approach. I haven't got exact days or weeks, but it is a significant change from perhaps to where in 2017, 2018, that we delivered it off in 2019. Directionally, it is shorter.
Is that likely to change, do you think?
What, sorry? Is it like they like to change that position?
No, to be clear, we will not be changing our pattern to book reservations early just to give us confidence in our forward sales book. We believe we have the right sites in the right locations. Sites where we have the biggest problems are the ones with the strongest demand. I'm absolutely convinced for this business, it's the right thing to do, to hold sites back to a more developed stage, so we can give more accurate dates to customers and provide a better quality of house and time to do that. The only reason you would do that earlier is if you thought you couldn't sell them. We're pretty confident with our range of outlets, the product we've got there, and what history tells us and what we see in terms of demand, that there's no need to change that.
In terms of bulk sales, it's linked to the same point, I suppose, Andy. My focus during 2019 was actually to get more WIP on the ground, to have more stock on the ground rather than sell it at a discount. We see good demand for our houses. We have been able to put more WIP in the ground, and it just doesn't make sense for us to do bulk deals when we can sell them in the open market for bigger margin. We've done no real bulk deals of any size to any investors during 2019. I can't see that really changing in 2020.
Thank you very much.
The next question comes from the line of John Fraser-Andrews from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Morning, gents.
Good morning, Jon.
I'll get back to three, if I may. On the first one, the completions in half two came in a lot better than half one in terms of the decline. Is it fair to say, given what you've said on sales rates, that a few more got into the year-end and that might be why the forward order book is slightly lower? That's the first question. The second is on build costs. Dave, could I ask you to clarify? I think you said labor stabilizing. Within the 2.5%-3% projection, is labor sort of next to nothing in your outlook and materials therefore growing somewhat more than the 2.5%-3%?
The final question is on the customer service satisfaction and service and build quality, noting your improvements of a strong four-star rating and what you said earlier about not seeing significant additional cost as a result of your independent review. Perhaps you could just sort of say how much of the GBP 15 million is still to come to get up to that annual run rate in 2020 and give a little bit more color on how much more might be needed to make you fully satisfied.
Just on that last bit, just jump in there, John. I think if you took a view that maybe a third of the 15 was taken in 2019, and obviously the full run rate would be included in 2020, 40-60 split is about the right sort of level.
Okay.
In terms of your first question, John, I think your assessment's perfect. A little bit more volume did come in half two. We were pleased to deliver it. The businesses responded, and we were more than happy because the quality was right. To be clear, if the quality hadn't been right for half two, then we wouldn't have let it go over. That did affect our forward sales a little bit. The real driver in our forward sales business is our decision of how far forward we want to sell and our discipline about when we're releasing on these sites. That will be continuing during 2020. In terms of build costs, I think you're right. It'd be naive to think there'd be no labor increase, probably, but it has stabilized, so maybe 1%.
With materials, maybe it's at 3%, maybe touch more on labor. I think you're going to be seeing much more increase in terms of materials, maybe one to three, something like that. Averaging around about two, maybe a bit more than that, be maybe one and a half, three and a half, or one, three. Not all the deals pretty much got good visibility on the materials yet, but labor is much more fluid, and it's not the same across the board. It depends upon demand and where we are in the country. I think for your guidance and for your modeling, I think the guidance we've given previously is probably about right.
Okay. Thanks, Dave, for that. Just one follow-up, if I may.
Sure you can, John. You got it.
Well, it was back on the brick factory.
Yeah.
What sort of levels of inflation do you think you're incurring there and how that's comparing with the wider market?
In terms of the brick factory, I think our costs have been pretty stable. I don't think the input cost is going to change very much at all this year. In fact, as we produce a few more, we think we may get a little bit more operational efficiencies. In terms of the outside world, I'm not going to go into commercial deals we've done, but we're happy with the deals we've done in terms of bricks. I don't think the big pressure points in terms of the materials is in terms of bricks. It's in other materials where you're seeing a lot more pressure.
Thanks very much.
Cheers.
The next question comes from the line of Will Jones from Redburn. Please go ahead.
Morning, guys.
Morning, Will.
go back to two. The first was just exploring just some of the numbers behind the customer satisfaction scores. We can see, I think since we last spoke, we've seen by the HBF the 12 months completions, I think, for the 12 months to June, I think you were at 82.9 for that measure, having been at 80.1 for the 12 months to March. There's quite a big jump, basically, for an annualized score in only a 3-month period. You could argue from that it implies that actually in that latest quarter, the latest 3 months, you were probably closer to 5-star than 4-star. We don't know exactly that, how we might read the change in the maths on that figure that we see externally.
The other one was just coming back to an earlier comment around if you were to reduce the land bank length over the next number of years, how would you encourage us to think about the possible impact on active site numbers? Obviously, the active count prior to last year at least didn't really move upwards as you grew the land bank. Should we expect that maybe the active sites might come down a bit if that happened over the next number of years? Would you maybe buy smaller sites to, I guess, offset that issue, in terms of the sales fronts? Thanks.
I think if we deal with the first ones first. It's impressive how you got to the numbers so quickly. It is quite right. I think it's a bit of both. I think the period we had previously for that quarter to the June wasn't so good. We had a big material movement, which did make the number increase quite a lot in that period. It is right. We're probably closer to the five star than we are to the four star. Not massively closer, but we are trending closer to the five star. The encouraging thing for me, since we've taken over in January, we've seen a step change in the business. Obviously the HBF rating is only one indicator, but we have been seeing material improvement. I'm pleased with where we're trending. We still have more to do.
We'd like to get to the five-star builder. It's not the be-end and end all of everything. It's more important for us to be a quality builder and provide a quality service and provide all the things we set out in our customer care improvement plan back in September. We are pleased where we are, and we started pretty well in terms of the recent, the new ones which come out for October. Very good results, encouraging. It is positive, and we have made good improvement. In terms of the land bank length, you have to remember, we still have the ability to bring other sites in. I don't think it necessarily follows because we're not buying more land, that we'll have less outlets. If that was to happen, we have options. We could top it up with one or two smaller sites.
As we sit here at the moment, even with our land bank drifting back, we don't believe there will be a material change in outlet numbers. I think it's more that because we still have the opportunity to grow if we choose to. 31 businesses, 600 units per company. The land bank length supports and underpins our optionality and what we choose to do.
I think, just giving a sort of a general feel for the recent data. The issue with outlet numbers, they do take quite a while to come through, obviously, if you're promoting it as strategic, et cetera, and getting them through into production. If you look at 2019, we've acquired over 9,900 plots in 60 locations. Simple maths, about 160 plots per site on average. This is very much an average, which is actually a bit lower than last year. My figures here tell me around about 200 plots on average for last year. We have, on average, done a few more smaller sites actually in 2019, which actually helps outlet volume. We're not becoming over-dependent upon a lower volume of larger sites.
You raise an important point, Will, because you do have to remain focused on that because you can find that your sales activity becomes polarized or concentrated. Which means that you have to adopt perhaps a slightly different approach in the market than having a wider distribution footprint. Which really refers back to Dave's early comments in terms of having the 31 businesses across the regions, which puts us in a very strong position, balanced position, if you will, across the market.
I suppose the key thing, Will, is how far you're looking ahead. What we do know and what the model of what we've done and what we've seen in the land bank which we've got, we're very confident in our position for 2020, 2021 for our outlets. If there was to be a material change in the market, for example, and we were only buying 3,000 plots a year, then potentially, you're right, we may have to buy some smaller sites to top that up. That extreme, we're not seeing at the moment. We're seeing a reasonable land market where we're able to get what we need. If there was a material change in the land market, then that would be something we'd have to look at. As we sit here at the moment, we don't see it as a particular problem.
Also, I think, it's a good point because it goes to the very heart of strategy in that we're in a cyclical industry, we're a cyclical business, and as Dave says, we filled our boots back in the early part of the recovery phase more than anyone last time around. As you can see on the balance sheet, we're in a great position to be able to take advantage of market opportunity should those sorts of conditions arise.
Which is great for building sustainability into the business.
All right. Yeah, perfectly. Thank you.
Cheers, Will.
Just as a reminder, if you do wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad now. The next question comes from the line of Sam Cullen from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Hi. Morning, Dave. Morning, Mike.
Morning, Sam.
From me, really. Following on from the HBF ratings and Will's question, I guess in the release you talk about going far beyond a focus on the HBF satisfaction survey. How are we meant to view that from outside the company, and are you going to be releasing other metrics for us to look at and track how you think you guys are doing? How are you guys thinking about that?
I think that obviously we'll have to look at that, and I still need to digest what it is. Customer care to me has always been more than just about the story. For example, we were really proud to be the first people to empower our customers. We've reduced the retention scheme. We give them rights that other people aren't prepared to give them. We're really proud of just what we work we're doing around OT. We're really proud in terms of independent practice, improving safety and quality in the houses. We're really proud that we offer more people opportunity to get on the housing ladder than anybody else, 52% of our completions. To me, it's too narrow of indicator to assess your relationship with and your customer, just based on a star rating at any one particular time.
Saying that, it is important and we are focused on it, and we're pleased with the improvement. We're just as pleased with also the other changes we're making within the business. Some of these things are subjective, qualitative assessments rather than quantifiable assessments. We're digesting some of the stuff from the independent review, and one of the advices on that was maybe looking at other indicators to assess how we're changing rather than simply using a star rating, and that's something we will be looking at.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Cheers, Sam.
As there are no further questions, I'll hand it back to Dave.
Thank you, everybody. Finally, I'd just like to say how proud I am of the whole Persimmon team in making the step change in the direction of the company while maintaining the enthusiasm and commitment you've come to expect from Persimmon's staff. I'd like to put on public record how much I appreciate the open mind that they have been to the change in this important part of the Persimmon evolution. Thanks for everybody calling in. Thank you.
Thanks very much.
This now concludes our conference call. Thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.