Good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us today. Really nice to be here in person. What a change. I'm joined this morning by Jason, who I think many of you have said hello to this morning already so far. He joined us last month from Aviva, and it's great to have him on board. He'll follow me and present all the interesting stuff on the financials. We're also joined this morning by Martyn Clark, Group Chief Commercial Officer, and Julia, who you've met before, Mike, and Anthony, who will try and keep as low a profile as possible. Today I'll be providing an overview of the financial performance of the group that the group has delivered, and the good progress we're making at an operational level to build an even stronger business, whatever the conditions we're going into.
I'll pull out some of the key examples that really demonstrate that in action. Persimmon is renowned for its financial success, and in my near two years here, obviously, I've been seeking to retain its many great strengths, while at the same time also driving through key operational improvements. It's those improvements that will make it an even stronger business and deliver our mission to build homes our customers can rely on at prices they can afford. I said in our trading statement last month that the whole of our industry was facing significant ongoing challenges. Yet despite that, we're today reporting continued robust performance, industry leading margins and ROCE, and we achieved a 4% increase in selling prices compared to this time last year.
Despite being short of land, the group delivered 6,652 high-quality homes, with demand throughout the first half strong. That was reflected in average private sales rates running around 1% ahead year-over-year. We've managed the challenges of the inflationary environment that the industry is experiencing well, with a 10 basis points increase in our housing gross margin, up from 30.9%- 31%. We generated a profit before tax of GBP 439.7 million, and an underlying return on capital employed of 30.9%. We've also returned GBP 750 million to shareholders this year. What I'm really pleased about is that we've delivered this robust performance while building an even stronger business, which is what I want to talk to you about now.
As you're aware, we came into the year with a relatively low number of outlets. We're carefully rebuilding this position while maintaining our disciplined approach to land investment, and in line with our established strategy, we're protecting margin rather than chasing volume. We're on track to open around 10% more outlets over the course of the year. Securing timely planning consents remains a challenge, but we are taking proactive steps to manage this where we can. We have brought through some fantastic sites in the period, strengthening our land pipeline while maintaining our industry-leading return criteria. In the first six months of the year, we've brought 8,829 plots into the business across 37 locations around the UK. Looking further back, since the first of January 2021, we've brought around 30,000 plots into the business across approximately 140 sites.
It's this diverse network of fantastic sites that will underpin our future success. We're deepening our vertical integration, securing our increased resilience and security of supply. I'll come onto this in a bit more detail in a moment. Our customer service and build quality still continues to improve. Two key things I said when I joined two years ago I'd drive forward. Our FibreNest ultra-fast broadband provider achieved 94% day one connections in the first half. As you know, we created FibreNest in response to customers' frustrations with established operators' delays in connecting their homes. In an era of increasing reliance on broadband, this is a great performance and an importantly differentiating asset for us. We're investing in our people. Around 90% of our site teams now have relevant NVQ qualifications. Just over 18 months ago, that was only around 21%.
You'll remember that I set five key priorities to provide a framework for building an even stronger business. We're making good progress on all of them, and I'd like to give you an update on each. On build quality, we want to be trusted to consistently deliver five-star homes. Our quality has been improving and we've seen our number of NHBC RIs reduced by 25% in the last 18 months. We're a five-star builder for the first time in our history, and one of the best ways that's reflected is, of course, that over nine out of 10 of our customers would recommend us to a friend. We're also making good progress on the nine month survey. Scores which are currently up 25% over the last two years. As I've said, we've still maintained our disciplined return criteria when investing in land.
We've grown our pipeline, and we've built our outlet position from its recent lows. We've done all that while maintaining our industry-leading financial position. As a responsible company and employer, I'm pleased we've made progress in reducing our operational carbon emissions and continue to develop pilot projects to develop building techniques and technologies that are fit for the future. I was also very pleased we were recently recognized as a top 100 apprentice employer by the Department for Education. This is good and important progress, and it's by continuing to focus in these areas that will drive sustainable industry-leading returns. That's the context. What I want to do is to take you through some examples of where we're driving these improvements just to give you a flavor of not only what we're doing, but also what's to come. I'll start with build quality.
You'll be familiar with the Persimmon Way, our build quality program. Our mantra has been build right first time, every time. I want us to be trusted to consistently deliver five-star homes to our customers. Our progress on NHBC RIs and our build quality scores is obviously very encouraging, but we've got more to go. That's why we've introduced build standards set above prevailing industry norms. To drive that, we've held an extensive round of employee webinars, and we're still investing heavily in training for our site-based teams. We're using independent checks to ensure compliance and provide learning and support where appropriate, and we believe that our independent inspector team is the largest in the industry. We're also using the NHBC Construction Quality Review process and an external audit of the Persimmon Way's implementation to further drive improvements in build throughout the business.
Contractor tendering now includes quality and service metrics alongside cost to ensure that we're using the right trades to deliver these new standards. The benefit is already being seen in customer satisfaction and build quality scores I've mentioned. I also believe it's supporting our ability to achieve increased average selling prices. Plus, we'll see real benefits from the reduced cost of remediation. I've always said that we're placing customers at the heart of our business. That requires their trust to deliver five-star homes consistently, and I want to talk about how we're reinforcing that. It's been a huge achievement from colleagues across the business to achieve five-star status for the first time. It's such an important measure of our progress, and I'm also pleased with the nine-month score, which is, as I said, up 25% over the last two years.
We started engaging with customers on Trustpilot this year, not least for both feedback and opportunities to learn as well as a shop window. It's great our score has improved over 30% this year alone. Maintaining that progress is crucial to us achieving our mission to build our homes that customers can rely on for prices they can afford. As well as the right thing to do as a responsible company, there are real commercial benefits. By reinforcing trust, we will drive brand enhancement and secure greater market share. Customers are more likely to stay loyal to us, buy from us again, and recommend us to others. Persimmon has historically been perceived as a first-time buyer house builder. I now want us to be seen as a builder of choice wherever customers are in their life, first-time buyers, first-time movers, and downsizers.
We already sell to all of them, but I want us to become the first choice for more people. To achieve that, we've reviewed our marketing and we now have a much sharper image for customers. This slide shows some of our new material, giving a much more modern feel to our brand. With our enhanced quality and consistency, I want us to be more confident in our presentation and pricing. Although Help to Buy continues to reduce as a proportion of our sales, it was 21% in the first half compared to 39.5% in the same period last year. We must be mindful of any effect of its withdrawal. If the battle for customer gets harder in the future, we now have better marketing rather than having to play catch up.
I now want to move on to our approach to land. Persimmon has a hard-earned reputation for its disciplined approach to land investment opportunities. That approach to new land additions provides us with a strong platform for future returns. We added nearly 9,000 plots in the first six months across 37 locations with industry-leading margins. This continues our recent investment to grow our land bank, with our replacement rate running at 140% since January 2021, and what I view as a critical turning point for the business. At the 13th of June, we had over 89,000 owned and under controlled plots in our land holdings. Plus we have a further 13,300 acres of strategic land. That equates to around 100,000 plots, providing us with excellent visibility of our future pipeline.
A land cost to anticipated revenue ratio of 12.2% speaks for itself. We're bringing many really good sites through, and I'm pleased with the pipeline the team have in place and the new opportunities that we're identifying. That's also been reflected in our recent growth in active outlets. We're rebuilding our position from the relative low at the start of the year, as I've said. We're currently targeting a growth of around 10% in active outlets by the end of the year, which will ensure a robust platform for future growth. Outside our control, planning does remain a challenge brought on by a COVID-related backlog, staff shortages in local planning authorities, and additional issues like nutrient neutrality only compounding this. Around 90% of our 2023 volume delivery has planning consent, with around 75% with detailed consent.
We've the expertise to manage these challenges and are stepping up our efforts in driving further value from our high-quality land holdings. At the heart of this enhanced approach is our placemaking framework that the planning teams established recently, which is all about creating attractive communities. Our placemaking framework, alongside our new house type range, provides a stronger set of tools for teams across the group to meet the new design bar set by central government and local authorities, building beautiful communities while also securing and enhancing our plotting efficiency. We're also proactively engaging local authorities and politicians to better understand how we can help them deliver their local plans. As the government reforms increase the focus and importance of local support for new development, we're providing our teams with a stronger toolkit to meet customer needs and local planning authority requirements.
I thought an example would help to illustrate the point. I'm consistently impressed by the work of our local planning teams. Equally, there's always opportunity for support and challenge. This is where our central team are adding value, by using their experience across the group as a whole to work with local teams and identify opportunities for enhancements. I'll give you a little test later, see if you pick it up. This slide shows how our local group teams have been working together to develop this application. The original plan on the left has been worked on by both the local and group team seen on the right. Utilizing the new R21 housing range and enhanced plotting, they've set out a very attractive community that is currently in the planning process.
It's more efficient use of our asset with potential for a 10% increase in density. The photo at the bottom is an image of one part of the development, demonstrating the attractiveness of what's being proposed. It also shows examples of our new range. There's the Trimester apartments adding density, room in the roof adding extra space efficiently, and corner turning plots aiding layout attractively. Just as our enhanced placemaking framework seeks to enable our customers to live in attractive and sustainable communities, we're making important progress on our climate targets and the broader sustainability agenda. Sustainability is being embedded in our business. We consider it across all our operations. Last year, we set out carbon reductions targets accredited by the blue-ribbon Science Based Targets initiative and are measuring our carbon emissions against them.
In 2021, we saw an almost 10% year-on-year reduction in our carbon emissions per home sold. We have a number of projects underway to identify the most cost-effective method of achieving Part L of the building regs and the Future Homes Standard. We've obtained planning consent to develop a second zero-carbon home in Malmesbury, and two of our sites, Priory Green and Moorland Grove, are fully electric, using air source heat pumps to heat customers' homes. I want to turn now to our vertical integration, which also has sustainability advantages. By using timber frames and concrete bricks and tiles, we improve the embodied carbon of our homes, not least because the increased quality reduces waste and improves efficiency, and they're also driving value for the business. Space4, our timber frame manufacturing facility, provided timber frames for 35% of the homes that we've delivered in the period.
We've also been rolling out the room in a roof in a product that not only creates an extra room in the roof, but also is quicker to construct than using traditional trusses. Our factory provides both resilience and security of supply in what is, at times, a tricky market. Timber frame buildings have a number of clear advantages when compared with trad build. They are more efficient to build. On average, the build is 20% faster than traditionally built houses. You can, for example, have trades working both inside and outside the house once the frame is up. As a factory setting, the ability to deliver high quality consistently is also greater. There's no block work involved, and that reduces reliance on in-demand bricklayers.
All our regions that are not currently building with timber frame are now trialing its use, and we anticipate a significant increase in the proportion of our homes built this way in the future. Which is why we're investing in the next generation factory in Garendon in Leicestershire. This will provide the capacity for an additional 7,000 homes a year. It'll use the latest automation technology and have an agility to respond to different demands efficiently, as well as use factory learning to deliver high quality consistently. This is a really exciting project for us, and you can see from this slide the scale of what's been planned. The plans are currently at the pre-app stage. Full plans will hopefully be submitted by the end of the year, and we're targeting the first deliveries for mid 2024.
Our brick and tile factories are other examples where we are driving value. Here are our tile works and our brickwork factories just outside Doncaster. They're impressive facilities, and we've been investing in them further to increase output to meet our supplied demands and efficiency requirements. Our brickwork factory supplied 25 million bricks to 199 sites in the first six months of the year. For the full year, it's forecast to provide around 54 million bricks to the group, which is a 20% more than last year. The brickwork factory now has begun to work 24/7 from early June. Our tile work factory supplied around 6 million tiles to 215 sites in the first six months of the year. It's expected to deliver over 12 million to the group this year.
That's around a 40% increase compared with last year. We introduced our ridge tile line, and that began supplying the group in May, and we're now fully self-sufficient for this product. As you can see, we're making a lot of progress as a vertically integrated business. Together, these are unique assets that distinguish us from our competitors. That in turn enhances our capabilities to build at high quality more consistently while identifying opportunities for greater efficiency with agile plans in place to capitalize on them. While we're embedding a culture of excellence in the group through our assets, we're also continuing to do so through our people and our systems. The new senior management team established in January is driving this approach through the business and is working well. We're investing in our colleagues to enhance their skills and give them a good career at Persimmon.
That's really important to me. We have new pathways in place for site managers, sales advisors on excellent programs, and we're investing more in apprenticeships, including a flagship academy in Bridgend, and there's more to come. I really want us to become an employer of choice, and we're investing in systems and tools to give our teams what they need to build better, more consistently and efficiently, and give great service to our customers. We've improved resilience through the supply chain management, and this continues to get better. As an example, we enter the year with a projected brick shortage. Through central coordination and management, we first accurately identified the scale of the issue across the business. We then pooled our resources where appropriate and drew on our own factory whilst also rebuilding our reputation with a key supplier to create a solution for all 31 businesses.
We're investing in our data management and analytical capabilities to identify areas for improvement, and the 10% improvement in EUs, in fact up 23% in the last five weeks, shows the progress. I've already mentioned our enhanced range to meet, better meet local planning needs and customer demand, as well as the fact we're trialing timber frame in the regions that don't already use it to help secure build efficiencies. In short, we're creating information systems and management processes to make us an even better business, preempting challenges and capitalizing on the opportunities. That's how we'll continue to build an even stronger business. A business that delivers for its customers, for its employees, and for its communities across the country, while maintaining our industry-leading financial performance.
Of course, a business that delivers for its shareholders, which is the point that I'll now hand over to Jason to take you through the group's financial performance and returns.
Thank you, Dean, and good morning, everybody. I'm delighted to be here today, having joined Persimmon just over a month ago. Let me start by pulling out the key highlights of the first half. The group delivered strong margins and returns in the first half, with profit before tax of GBP 440 million. This outcome was achieved despite lower volumes. The group's average selling price was 4% higher than a year ago, which supported the slightly higher gross margin of 31%, and the group's operating margin was 27%. This trading outcome was delivered against a backdrop of significant build cost inflation, materials and labor shortages, and delays in the planning system. There was also significant investment to improve build quality and customer service. In the six months, there were 6,652 new home completions.
The relatively low level of outlets at the start of the year and some challenges with materials resulted in the delivery of lower volumes. As Dean just mentioned, we expect 14.5-15,000 completions for the full year. We've also invested significantly in new land, committing GBP 416 million to build a stronger business for the future. Let me now walk you through the operating profit. Operating profit before tax in the first half was GBP 441 million, compared to GBP 483 million last year. Where the business has excelled is in controlling what is controllable. Persimmon has a strong track record of financial discipline, and the first half performance is no different. We've been able to successfully mitigate build costs by tightly managing the business.
That's required forward planning, strong supply relationships, deriving the benefits from our vertically integrated brick, tile, and timber operations, while also improving our build efficiency on site. We made some necessary investment in improving build quality and customer service, which is behind the GBP 8 million increase in operating expenses. We also benefited from strong customer demand and a sensible pricing strategy, with average prices increasing 4%. I'll now walk through the key drivers behind the movement in revenues and costs. Starting with revenue. New housing revenue was GBP 1.63 billion in the first half. Across the business, we've been able to increase selling prices with an average increase in private of 4%, and by 2% across our partnership offering.
The overall 4% year-on-year increase in average selling price has been supported by strong customer demand, with our private weekly sales rate per site during the first half being 1% higher year-on-year. We've also maintained one of our key differentiators, namely customer affordability, which is as important as ever in the current economic climate. That's reflected in our average selling price of just over GBP 267,000 for private homes, which is 20% lower than the U.K. national average. In addition, our commitment to our local communities continues with 1,099 new homes and GBP 149 million of revenue from our affordable housing partners. Now onto costs and margins. The 31% gross margin is a 10 basis points increase over last year's first half and is a key highlight of the results.
This is underpinned by the quality and value of our land holdings, the expertise of our land and planning teams, and the efficiency of our build. The ratio of land cost to revenue was 11.9%, which is 2.2% stronger than the first half of 2021. It's a 40 basis point improvement over the second half of 2021. Again, as Dean just highlighted, over the last 18 months, the group has made some notable investments in people focusing on quality build and customer service. Results are starting to show with the group awarded a 5-star HBF score earlier this year and a current customer satisfaction of 92%. We have an ambition to go further to be an even stronger business.
Inevitably, making the necessary investment along with reduced volumes in the first half resulted in the increase in our operating expenses per plot. We expect this to trend down in the second half with higher volumes. As you'll see on the next slide, we've invested significantly in high-quality new land. That investment will underpin our growth and profitability into the future. In total, we have just over 72,000 own plots, which provides us with an excellent platform being around five years of supply at current consumption rates. With a further 17,000 plots under our control, we have over 89,000 plots either owned with an implementable planning consent or working towards achieving such consent. Of course, these sites will only be productive over several years.
In the first half, we added over 8,800 new plots across 37 locations to our owned and under control landholdings. That's a replacement rate of 133% when compared to first half completions. These additions help to sustain our diverse network of sites across the U.K. Of note, 65% of the plots were added within our southern market, and 41% of plots added having been converted from our portfolio of strategic land. We continue to acquire new land opportunities in line with our disciplined acquisition criteria, and you can see the expected land cost or anticipated revenue for the portfolio of owned and controlled plots is a very competitive 12.2%. On the next slide, I show you the very strong embedded margins underpinned by this attractive land portfolio.
On this slide, we've again pulled out the group's portfolio to show you those very strong embedded margins based on our anticipated revenue and build costs. As you can see, this provides us with a good platform for sustainable growth and future returns. The anticipated margin of the owned and controlled portfolio is 33% based on current revenue and cost expectations. Our significant land acquisitions in the first half continue to support this strong position. I'd now like to take you through the cash flow in the first half. The group entered the year with a very strong cash position of just under GBP 1.25 billion. During the first half, the group has actively returned capital to shareholders and deployed capital in the business and to build a strong platform for growth.
As I said, we've invested strongly in land with a net investment in the cash flow statement of GBP 215 million, being GBP 300 million in land, less GBP 85 million increase in creditors. In addition, our investment in work in progress has increased by GBP 172 million. This reflects an increase in our equivalent units of partially constructed new homes to some 4,400 at the 30th of June. That's up from around 4,100 at the start of the year. Plus, our ongoing investment in the infrastructure that supports these outlets and the communities where we build our new developments.
Including the return of GBP 400 million to shareholders in early April, it means we have a cash position of just under GBP 800 million at the 30th of June, which is, of course, just prior to the GBP 350 million dividend that was just paid out in early July. Cash at the end of June is more aligned to the level the board has previously considered appropriate, striking a balance between covering the group's working capital requirements and the ability to take advantage of attractive investment opportunities as and when they arise. Finally, I'd like to show you the impact of this capital deployment on our balance sheet. The key point on this slide is that despite reduced volumes and alongside substantial investment made into the future of the business, the group's 12 month rolling ROCE has remained industry leading at 31%.
The group is well positioned for the future with total land investment of over GBP 2.1 billion and work in progress at GBP 1.2 billion. With the investment made in new land, the associated creditors has increased to GBP 494 million, with GBP 237 million of that due within 12 months. At June 30, we had GBP 288 million of net cash and a net asset value of GBP 11.32 per share. While that obviously wasn't part of the business in the first half, I would like to thank the team who've delivered great margins and made those excellent investments in land and have been busy building a stronger customer-focused business. On that note, I'd like to hand back to Dean, who will cover the outlook for the business before we open up for Q&A.
Thanks, Jason. You can see that we performed well in the first half of the year, despite starting it from a relative low in terms of outlets. We're building a strong, resilient platform for the future. I want us to be the builder of choice for customers in our target segments, first-time buyers, first-time movers and downsizers. We've seen strong demand for our attractively priced homes with average private sales rates for the period around 1% higher year-on-year. We have a robust current forward sales position of over GBP 2.3 billion with 10,542 units forward sold at an average selling price that is 10% higher year-on-year. We're growing our outlet position across the U.K. and have high-quality landholdings with strong visibility over the future pipeline.
We're stepping up our approach and engagement with local authorities to secure permissions that meet the new design agenda and local priorities. We're investing in our assets to strengthen them further, as you've seen with our land additions as well as our factory expansion plans. Our high-quality landholdings provide great resilience for the business, which, as Jason has already noted, have an embedded gross margin of around 33% and a land cost to revenue ratio of around 12%. In short, in those areas where we have control, we're making good progress. We're building faster, we're building better, we're selling well, and we're rebuilding our land position.
We're entering a period of broader economic and industry uncertainty with Help to Buy going and of course, the Bank of England pointing out the risks of recession as well as rising interest rates. The last seven weeks, sales rates have slowed, but it's too early to tell if this is the usual seasonal pattern rather than a longer trend. There are uncertainties outside of our direct control, but we are, as I said, making good progress in those areas we do control, and we remain on course to deliver around 14,500-15,000 completions this year, securing a good full year profit performance. With our sustainable approach, we will remain committed to pay a dividend through the cycle as well as return surplus capital. In short, we're building a stronger business over the longer term from a position of strength.
Thank you very much, and we'll now take any questions. Take your pick.
Thank you very much. Thank you, Dean. Thank you, Jason, for this presentation. Arnaud Lehmann from Bank of America. Three, if I may. Firstly, I think Help to Buy, you mentioned 21% in the first half. I would have expected a bit of a step up, you know, considering the scheme is coming to an end. Do you expect a step up of Help to Buy into year-end? Do you feel it's been a support to demand that might fade next year?
Sorry, what was that last bit?
Just if you expect once Help to Buy is gone, you know.
What to expect next year?
Yes. Yes. Secondly, I mean, you mentioned the outlook, uncertainties, the macro, the government, et cetera. Are you adjusting your strategy in any way, making your houses more affordable or maybe planning to slow down the pace of land purchase? What are you doing to, I guess, try to anticipate the slowdown? Lastly, just coming back to the leadership candidate for prime ministers. Have you heard anything from either of the two that was relevant to Persimmon?
You know, we'll see where that goes.
I guess beyond the potentially lower corporate tax rates, that might help. In terms of maybe the Levelling-up bill or the implementation of the Building Safety bill. Thank you.
Help to Buy comes to an end in October. What do we expect next year? I think the market will adapt. We'll probably see, I would imagine, some impact on next year's numbers. Of course, I put that in the context of what happened a year ago when Help to Buy one ended, the price caps came in, and it was only available for first-time buyers. Of course, we didn't miss a beat. Do I think that's gonna be a little bit different next year? Yeah, probably. As a consequence of both, that was offset, I think, by COVID and people responding to the pandemic with very strong demand, so we didn't really notice it. Of course, the broader economic uncertainty.
I think having said that, you know, and I guess it's gonna be a theme for me throughout this morning, is, yeah, you know, who knows what's gonna happen next year? Persimmon's a great business, and it's becoming an even greater business. Looking through two, three, four years' time, I think it will be a fantastic business. In terms of what we're doing to prepare for it, well, obviously there's product availability. Our higher LTVs, some of those are coming to the market. In terms of our own self-help, the business has forgotten to use Part Exchange. You know, Part Exchange is only about 5% now of our sales. Less than that, in fact. If you look back before Help to Buy, it was over 30%.
There's a big bundle of self-help that we can help ourselves with. Yes, I mean, the R21 product range has changes to Help to Buy in mind. Both extensions at the lower end of the market and at the top end of the market. I think, look, Persimmon, I don't wanna overclaim, but I think that Persimmon is gonna be okay. It will come out, probably see an adjustment next year, but it'll come out the other side of it as Help to Buy works its way out of the system. Many people say to me it's Help to Buy bigger rather than really Help to Buy.
With our product range, our proposition, and the affordability of our product, I think with our product getting better and better in terms of placemaking and design, in terms of product quality, in terms of reputation and brand with customers, I think it puts us in a good place. Kind of that almost, I think, answers your second point broadly as well. The land additions we've made this year have simply been because we've been playing catch-up. Some great opportunities coming through our strategic land bank as well as on the market, and we've availed ourselves of those. This very high peak of 140% land replacement to consumption will flatten out.
We are in no way relaxing our hurdle rates, and I think in many ways that is our greatest protection. There's a lot of wool on our backs in the event of recession. The sites we're buying, look, you know, they will be around for us for years and years and years, and they'll be going through cycles. I mean, we have plenty of those already in the business that have been with us for 10, 15, 20-odd years, and they've been through many cycles, and so will the land we're buying now. Look, if we don't go through tougher times next year, the business will be building less.
It'll throw off a ton of cash, and we've got great flexibility in land purchases we are making in terms of pushing them back a bit further. Of course, it could present an opportunity for us. If land costs become even more attractive, that's an opportunity that will put Persimmon very well-placed for the next decade, just as the GFC did. You know, it will be what it will be, and we'll come out of it the other side as a great business. I think in terms of leadership candidates, you're as well-placed to judge as I am. Good luck to them both.
Thanks. Aynsley Lammin from Investec. Just two from me, please. First of all, just want to explore your confidence in the full year guidance. Obviously implies a big kind of 11%-15% or so increase in completions in the second half. You're 90% forward sold, so presume it's all got planning. Is it just the build issue, that's where there's a risk there, and how confident are you to get the materials and kind of meet that guidance? Secondly, just on the gross margins, obviously up in the first half, I think you talk about mitigating cost pressures. Just wondered if you could talk a bit, is it becoming more difficult to cover those cost increases? Is there more pressure going in the second half on the gross margins? Thanks.
Yeah, look, I mean, we're pretty confident at about the 14.5-15,000 range. It's a big step up, you're dead right, from the first half. We're building phenomenally well at the moment. You know, last week our EU output was up 25% year-on-year. As I said in the deck presentation over, I think, the last five weeks, we were up 23%, but you know, that's increasing, which is fantastic. I think that's a combination of two things. In terms of the environment, it has unquestionably got easier than it was this time last year, without a shadow of doubt. That doesn't mean there aren't challenges out there.
We always have a surprise from our supply chain around about October time, and I'm sure this will be no different. We're anticipating that and getting ahead of that. You know, I'm feeling pretty good about that guidance I'm giving, in terms of output, and I think we're building really, really well. We're building as fast as we ever have done at a higher quality, which is fabulous. I think, yeah, you're right. We're 90% forward sold. We've got 10 more selling weeks left. Depends really what's going to happen in September, October, I think, to sales. You know, I'm not that concerned about sales for this year, based on what we're seeing. Cancellations trending 18%-20%, which is roughly where they've been throughout my time here.
Sales rates have slowed, but they normally do slow this time of year. You know, we drew it out in the release, but also in my statement, in my speech, sorry. The last seven weeks are down 11% compared to seven weeks of last year, but that was an unusual year. You know, it was still the aftershocks of COVID working through that. If you compare it to 2019, we're 8% up, and 2019 is generally regarded as a more reasonable benchmark for performance. You know, looking ahead, we just don't know at this point in time. This year I think is okay.
Next year, hard to say, and we won't really know until schools go back and we get into the autumn in terms of sales rates for next year. In terms of cost pressures and margin, I mean, there have been some egregious increases in material costs in the first half of the year, which I think you're all aware of. You just get the sense that it's cooling off now. You know, while they were almost a daily occurrence, we're not seeing that now. In fact, some are already coming off, like timber, for instance, as you'll probably realize. You know, we're, for instance, taking advantage of that by retendering trusses, just as an example of the consequence of that for the business.
We have got some pretty excellent forward ASP prices in the book, which I think will help margin in the second half. You know, we've been pretty robust in pricing through the first half of the year. Is that getting more challenging at the moment? Maybe. It's hard to tell. We're still getting some. It's still pretty firm and still seeing some really good prices out there, which will come through and help average revenues in the second half and support profitability. In terms of this year, feeling you know pretty good at this point in time, for full year profitability.
Thank you. It's John Fraser-Andrews, HSBC. I'll have three, please. The first is on site numbers. If I recall correctly, it was 290 at the beginning of the year, so 10% would take that to 320, roughly. Could we have the numbers for sales, active sales outlets as opposed to sites, please? Second question is on the average selling price. The 4% reported, just seeing the presentation, both private and affordable were in that sort of low single digit numbers and then we see a +12% for private in the forward order book. Can we have what's going on in the mix behind those numbers, please?
What is the underlying house price inflation in the private order book? Thank you.
Okay. As at the 31st of July, we had 310 operational outlets, which you quoted 290, but in reality, at the start of the year, we were at 280 because eight or nine of those sites had about one unit left on them to sell. I think that's a phenomenal achievement for the group. Active sales at the end of July was 255. Look, you know, I think that growth in outlets for us this year is fantastic. We have opened around 60, I think it's about 67 now, something like that. In the second half, in total, there's planned another 70. In total, that's roughly around 130 new outlets. Where will it be at the end of the year?
Well, if you can tell me the pace of selling, I'll tell you how many outlets we will precisely have at the end of the year. If you don't know that, guess what? I don't know either. I think it will be around the number we just quoted. It will be more than that if the pace of sale is slow. It will be less than that if the pace of sales accelerates. In terms of ASP, what you're seeing in the first half is really what was last autumn's pricing.
Now, we pushed hard at the beginning of the year, recognizing the cost inflation that was coming down on us, and that's what you're seeing playing out in the forward order book, which was, I was kind of hinting at earlier when I said there was some great prices coming through the book. I'm quite excited about that in terms of what that means for the second half. You know, I think we're in good shape.
Just to follow up on what you said, on ASP, in the private forward order book how much of the 12% is like for like?
What is the like for like? That's really, and I'm not trying to be evasive, but it's really hard to say. Probably I'd say around about 8%-10%.
Thank you. On the active sales outlets, so that difference of 55
Yeah
In build, what's the rate of conversion from build into sales outlets?
Yeah. How long's a piece-
Over the second half of the financial year.
How long's a piece of string? It depends on Section 278 works. It depends on building control, and so on and so forth. I mean, I think it's fairly. Since, at least since I've been here, what I've seen is you can roughly bank on around about 50-60 always in construction. It's just the rate of development.
Thank you.
Thanks. Will Jones at Redburn. Three as well if I could please. The first just around planning more generally. Is there anything you're doing inside the business to change processes to help yourself, or is it more just you're at the mercy of the system? The second was, second one around the landbank gross margin, that's circa 33%. I think there's a sub-note saying it that would be applicable at normalized output levels. How much higher is normalized compared to current or is actually current what you might deem normal in terms of achieving that 33%? And the last one, I'm not sure if Jason is taking questions or not, but I just wondered if he joins the business, have any strong views on the company's capital structure or distribution policies.
I'll of course invite Jason to talk, you know, recognizing that he's only been here four weeks. I thought I was gonna give the fellow a break, but I didn't think you'd give him a complete break. Yeah, look, you know, we are up against it planning-wise, and I would re-emphasize the point I made for all your models next year. We still have 25% of detailed consent to get through for next year, so don't forget that. But what is that? That was roughly that level last, this time last year. Has it got a bit harder? Yeah, probably.
I actually think what that means is a similar experience to what we've seen this year, which is that we won't get those consents by the year end, but they will come through during the first half of next year, which will feed into H2 of next year. I suspect other things being equal, a similar sort of ish balance of sales with, you know, lower sales first half, higher sales in the second half, which is not just market driven, but production led as well. Change processes. Yeah, look, I mean, very simply, if you give the planner something he likes, you stand a greater chance of getting approval. There's a big focus on that in the business at the moment. If you try and appeal it, then that's a year gone, and that's no good to any of us.
Yes, you know, the R21 house type range is intended to help address those concerns. We have put investment into our developments, which you can see is coming through with a payback. We are trying to make our own lives easier. I think on the land bank point, I think it's fine, isn't it? It's just it isn't. What we've got now is what we regard. There's nothing funny in the normalization stuff. Before I invite Jason to comment about capital structure, I think, look, as I said five weeks ago, we realized that we have a broad church of shareholders who have conflicting opinions about the dividend. Jason is tasked to look at what an appropriate dividend policy and capital return plan is.
I'll ask him to come to that in a moment. You know, but I don't think there's anything that the board will do that fundamentally will change our approach in terms of paying a sustainable dividend and returning surplus capital as and when that surplus capital is deemed to arise. I don't think there's gonna be a you know, vast change in policy at least. It's a hugely cash generative business when we're making the sales. You know, if we achieve the 8,000-odd completions we're planning in the second half, that's GBP 2 billion worth of cash in the door by the year end. I think you know, the business will be all right.
We have invested in land, but I think land will, you know, normalize out unless there's opportunities. I don't know, Jason, whether.
Well, there's not a lot, you know, I can say. I think I recognize we need to provide a bit more clarity around this. It's a task that, you know, I'm going to spend some time working with Ian and the board on, you know, as we go through the next cycle of planning. In terms of the actual capital structure, you know, the net cash position, you know, is pretty commonplace across the sector. I don't see that changing, you know, materially. You know, we'll work that through. In terms of the actual cash flows, you know, we obviously started to talk about that a little bit today. But we need the organization to be one that can sustain, you know, the growth and also provide, you know, clarity on the regular sustainable return that we will be offering to shareholders.
I haven't got anything specific that I can add to that today.
Ami Galla from Citi. Just two questions from me. The first one on operating expenses, the step-up that we've seen, if you could clarify what's the incremental headcount add versus what was underlying inflation?
Sorry, what was that? The incremental headcount?
Yeah. The additional headcount that had come through in the first half versus the underlying inflation in that overheads in the business. The second one was on Charles Church. The gross margin in the first half was lower. I was wondering if you could give us some color in terms of was that mix driven or was there something specific on the sort of sales per square foot and the margin per square foot on that?
Just on the last one, it's just mix. It's where we sold. You know, we had I think more Charles Church up north than this time last year. We had more down in the southeast. Just happens where it's sold. In terms of OpEx expenses, there's not a great deal to see in there, I think really. I mean we've obviously doubled the independent inspection team, so that cost is coming through. We've increased our customer care teams. That is also coming through.
There's a bit of a cost, but I think that cost will give us a payback to you know, if you like, driving better value and achieving that better value in the selling price, which as I've alluded to, you're seeing gonna come through in the second half with higher ASP and lower remediation costs. Yes, there's a cost, but the cost is I think gonna give us a payback.
On the underlying inflation on the overheads, is there some guidance that you can give for this year?
In terms of underlying inflation on overheads, I think it would be in terms of pay, if that's what you're driving at, for a business, we've done a differentiated structure on pay. Recognizing cost of living crisis, lower paid staff have been given a 7% pay award, and that's tiered down to 4% for execs, other than board execs who get less for the pleasure of being here. You know, I would say it's probably around about 5%.
Thank you.
Glynis Johnson, Jefferies. Sorry, hiding behind Mike. I've got a few questions. I'm just gonna reel off my questions and see if you can write fast enough. The 30-
Do my best, Glynis.
The 33% gross margin that you show in your sort of bubble chart is on the land that you own. If we look at the plot cost ASP on the proceeding to contract, it's higher. Is that 33% gross margin still applicable across all the land that's in and incoming? Second of all.
Yes.
Yes. Perfect.
All you're seeing in that proceeding to contract is some just a mix. We've got some big sites coming through, which are more Southeast or urban in nature in that mix this time. You know, we've got Didcot, and that'll be fantastic when that comes through. We've got something in the middle of York, and we've got Kenilworth, all that's coming through, and that's affected that average cost to ratio in the first half, and through the proceeding to contract as well. The 33% margin is good.
Perfect. First choice versus first time buyer, what does that actually mean? Does that mean
Sorry, what was that?
The first choice versus the first time buyer. Yeah, what does that mean in terms of your product mix? Does that mean that you're seeking to move the product mix higher? Does that mean that you're changing what Persimmon has done?
No. Well, kind of yes and no. Look, you know, in the R21 range, the focus is very much in keeping our costs as efficient as possible, and we're driving that through. Also, you know, enhancing the product range a bit. That is also about, you know, Charles Church is extending its product range to smaller units as well and getting a bit more value for it. You will see a bit of that coming through.
Okay. Starts on the ground. Back of your pack, you've got appendix that shows the starts, the housing starts, which actually have been very robust. What are you actually seeing on the ground? I'm wondering, in terms of the competition for resources, competition for labor, competition for materials, are you seeing any of that ease month-on-month? Do you anticipate to see that effectively build cost inflation start to moderate slightly from the incredibly high levels right now?
Look, I think, yes. It's evident from our EU build rate. You know what I mean? It's a massive step up in EU build rate that we've achieved, and that reflects it getting a bit easier. We will, of course, have about a year, I think, still, of that 10% odd coming through the book, just as that's historical cost and, you know, being absorbed into the run rate. Yes, I mean, we are seeing an easing. For instance, this week I signed off on some scaffold in Southwest. Now, there was no point doing that last year because you couldn't get any labor for doing it. We bought scaffold, we got the labor, so that is gonna help. That was.
Couldn't do that last year in the Southwest.
Okay. Brickworks. You gave us the increase, but are you self-sufficient in terms of your concrete bricks?
No, we never will be. It's about half. Of course, not all local authority, local planning authorities are ever going to fully accept concrete bricks. We'll, you know, where we've got clays in the mix, we'll never be self-sufficient. We've stepped up. I'm pleased we've stepped up. We've improved the product. We've improved the appearance of the product as well. That's also helping getting planning sign-off, and it was also helping with values. There's a lot of work gone into that, which is not just about security of supply, but we'll never be fully self-sufficient for bricks.
Are you self-sufficient on concrete bricks? Are you buying-
Oh, yes.
Concrete bricks? You're self-sufficient. Okay. Sorry, I'm gonna keep going with my questions. I've got very few more. Just in terms of the scale of product on site, obviously lots of questions about what happens if things turn down. Can you give us any indication of what scale of products you have available on site? You know, is it that there is so little supply that actually, you know, customers may start to diminish, but you still have enough for the sales?
We have very little. You're dead right. I mean, availability is really tight at the moment because of build and because of strength of demand. Availability, Our stock holding is the lowest probably it's ever been. You know, I'd hope that increases a bit over the autumn.
Two more. One for Mike, if I may. Just in terms of the cash flow, the guidance for net cash for the year-end. Obviously, Dean, you talked about GBP 2 billion of cash coming in just in terms of operations. You talked about land perhaps moderating down, but then the step up in outlets requires probably more WIP going in. Is there any indication of what we should be thinking about in terms of year-end cash?
I don't think there's any secret that, you know, we're at GBP 800 million there or thereabouts. I think, yes, we'll be looking at land opportunities through the next six months, and if there is anything there, we will accept it and go with them. Yes, as Dean's pointed out, that we do need to keep building. I think we will release sufficient cash out of our working capital from what we've done in the first half of this year, and my feel is we'll be somewhere around about where we are at June. I think that's a good estimate at this point in time. I mean, obviously, we've still got another four and a half months to get there, but we will be counting every penny in.
Lastly, one for Jason, or maybe it's Dean. When will we hear about the capital return policy?
Is Stacey.
Well, we tell you.
Should we anticipate a second half, or is this a 2023?
Well, we paid the dividend for this year, haven't we? I mean, we've got to talk to the board about it and, you know, as soon as we've got some news, we'll let you know.
Thank you. Rajesh Patki from J.P. Morgan. Just two for me. The new timber frame factory that you mentioned, Dean, could you provide a rough idea of the scale of investment that is involved?
GBP 45 million, roughly.
Thank you. In relation to the lending environment, do you expect the change or the removal of one of the two affordability criteria to ease the situation a bit going forward from here?
Well, I have some bankers in the room. You should ask them. There's a lot going on in that mix, isn't there? I think, you know, possibly too hard to say.
Thank you.
Thank you. I'm Harry Goad from Berenberg. I've got two, please, one on planning and one on customer service. On the planning point, I appreciate no planning application is the same, but can you give us any guide in terms of the extended duration of a typical planning application? Are we talking, you know, three, four, five months? And have you started reflecting that in your land viability calculations? Then the second point on customer service, obviously, you talk about good progression on the nine month score. Is there any sort of target that you can share with us over the next couple of years? Thank you.
In terms of what? Sorry.
In terms of your nine-month score.
Yes. What progression of nine months? Yeah. Okay.
Is there a target?
Is there a target? Okay. On planning, time has certainly gone in. You know, this is all anecdotal stuff. You know, I think if you look at some hard data is illustrative that actually consents in total of on average come down by, I think, about 7% over the course of the last five years. You know, what does that tell you? Time has gone into the system for sure. Probably, you know, maybe on average, and it varies, some people will tell you six months, some people will tell you 12 months. Have we factored that additional delay into the system? Yes. Yes, we have.
That has to reflect the payment terms we're you know going to pay landowners because clearly, I don't wanna be in a position where we're paying on the nose for a piece of land for us then not to get on site and start turning any cash on it for two years. That has to reflect and is being reflected in the deals we're doing. Where as a group, we're now at for the nine months, we're now at 75%, which is up enormously over the course of the last couple of years. Our current working target is we want to get that average to 80%. We've got a lot of work still to do to get there, but we're making good progress.
Thank you.
Yes.
Morning. Chris Millington. Two if I can, please. The first one's really about. Sorry, if I can find where I've written them down. Have you thought about M&A to arrest this outlet shortfall rather than, you know, considering the delays in planning actually going out? There's low valuations out there. It could clearly make a bigger impact and be less dilutive to earnings in the short term. The second one I've got really is just about the potential for a rebalancing in volumes next year. You've mentioned on a couple of occasions kind of 2019 sales rates. If we look at where your outlets are at the moment, that would imply kind of closer to 13,000 units versus the 14,500, 15,000.
I presume you can eat into your order book, but, you know, what's the risk of a 5%-10% fall back in volumes for next year?
Well, I think just on that last point, you're dead right, yeah. If the rate of sale declines and we can't open outlets as fast as we want to, that is a natural consequence of that.
Do you think 10 is possible from what you're seeing at the moment?
I'm not trying to be evasive, but I'm not gonna read a data point from seven weeks of summer trading. You know, I think ask us that in the autumn when we've seen what September and October bring to us. I come back to the point that although we're now down from the elevated rates of sales we saw this time last year, they're still 8% above where they were in 2019. Certainly, if I think about the last four or five weeks of sales, it's been, you know, it's been quite variable. Last week, for instance, was one of the best sales weeks we've had for some time. You know, there's other things we can look at doing, investor deals, PRS deals, that kind of thing.
There's plenty of interest in that in the market still at the moment. It's way too soon to say, you know, the arithmetic. Yes, your arithmetic's right. We've done the same arithmetic. It is possible, but I can't just call it until the autumn. On M&A, it just doesn't stack up for us. We've looked at a number of opportunities since I've been in the business, and the return is never as good as investing in our own land.
Just a quick one on that volume risk. Do you think you'll be able to mitigate your admin costs in 2023 if volumes were to fall away?
Well, you've still got inflation coming through.
Right. Yeah
It's not a big part of the equation. I'm not gonna be drawn on guidance for 2023 at the moment.
Okay. Thank you.
Morning. Sam Cullen from Peel Hunt. I've got a couple also. When you talk about kind of the value premium from quality consistency, I wonder whether you'd be willing to kind of quantify what you think that might be, and also give us the number of what you're spending on remediation currently, and where that's gone over the last couple of years, would be useful. Secondly, kind of an extension to Glynis's question, I guess. If you're talking about moving, at the margin, away from first-time buyers and more towards second steppers, how confident are you that the land portfolio you own at that 33% gross margin is the right land portfolio for a second stepper who might be looking at a different area, in a different locality to a first-time buyer?
I think it's nothing that we're already doing, you know? I think the land is perfect for it because in reality, what I'm talking about is what Persimmon is doing. You know, and it really resonates as I go around sites around the business, and I go around multiple sites all the time around the business, and I go and talk to customers, and it really strikes me that our cohort of customers are already first time buyers, first time movers, and downsizers. You know, the role we play, I think, in achieving, you know, people's aspirations in terms of where they want to live and really achieving some lifetime goals is something I'm really quite proud of in Persimmon, and I want us to get really better and better at it. Can I quantify?
You know, no, I can't quantify precisely what that means in terms of pricing. You know, it's quaint. If you keep your customers happy, I do believe they pay you, and they keep buying from you. Perhaps that's an old-fashioned view which is inconsistent with the construction industry, but it happens to be my firmly held view. I think we're seeing it in the business, and I certainly think. You know, I've seen plenty of anecdotal examples as I've walked around the business in the first half of this year where that's true. In terms of cost, you know, probably our remediation cost amounts to 1.5%-2% of build cost. If we can drive 1% out of that, then it's gonna clearly help the margin.
Well, if we have no more questions, thank you very much indeed. Good to see you here this morning. Thank you.