Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the RHI Magnesita Q3 trading update conference call. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star one on your telephone. For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it is my pleasure to hand over to Mr. Stefan Borgas, CEO. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Good morning from Vienna on this nice autumn day. We would like to give you an update about Q3 trading at RHI Magnesita around the world, and let me start with the first—the, with the three key messages from the events of the third quarter. First message, trading in the third quarter has been solid. We are raising our EBITDA guidance for 2023. Volumes are still weak, but they are in line with the original guidance for 2023. That means around 5% lower volume this year compared to last year, which in our business is actually significant. Pricing has been resilient and is the main driver to balance out this volume weakness. Sorry, I have [inaudible] problem.
All right, to complete this trading key message, the 2023 EBITDA guidance is now at least EUR 380 million, from EUR 360 million minimum achievement previously guided. Second key message: What were the actions that we took to get there? We are navigating this period of weaker demand. That better than in previous downturns, because we have become a more agile business. We have invested into our network over the past several years to reduce cost, rationalize our network, and much more stabilized our operations. The internal KPIs that we use to measure this are all showing major operational improvements. We are continuing to make improvements, mostly focusing on operational delivery and on customer centricity. Therefore, a better customer experience translates also into solid pricing.
Customers are willing to pay for superior products and tailored services if everything is delivered on time and in full. We will continue on this path of operational improvements. The next step up focus for RHI Magnesita will be around systems, IT technology, and further sharpening of our business processes and their delivery. Furthermore, the benefits from the strategic initiatives and also from acquisitions are so far offsetting the impact of lower volumes. Overall, RHI Magnesita, in our company, we are planning, forecasting, and reacting more effectively to the volatility that we're now living with. Third key message, our M&A strategy continues to have good momentum. M&A is the primary route for both short and long-term growth, because the base business in our industry doesn't grow.
The acquisition P-D Refractories this quarter, that we announced at the beginning of October, is another transaction about which we are really excited. This additional business, together with earlier acquisitions in India, China, and Türkiye, positions us as a leader now in alumina and silica-based refractories, with extensive synergy potential and substantial improvements of customer experience. This will ensure our supply chain reliability for our customers. Let me dive a little bit deeper into some aspects which have determined our Q3 performance, namely the trading conditions, the demand outlook, and the M&A. Ian will then provide some further details on the financials. The trading conditions, they have been tough, with the lowest volumes that we've seen in the past 15 years in the refractory world from an overall perspective, with, of course, a notable exception in India.
We are clearly impacted by these reduced volumes of steel customers and also other materials, mainly as a consequence of the global slowdown in the construction industries and the continuous weakness in the automotive and transportation industry. Both remain below pre-pandemic levels. This puts pressure on our financial performance, because our sales volumes are reduced, and we need to scale back production to match the demand. That increases our fixed cost per unit. We only currently operate at around 70% of our plant capacity across the quarter, the third quarter. The third quarter normally is our weakest volume quarter, ahead of the beginning of the cement season, which happens in Q4. So we, we are not and we're not nervous about that fact.
However, while volumes have been weak and remain weak, the overall picture is still in line with the guidance that we have given at the beginning of the year. So we have prepared well for that period, rather than been lucky with an uptick of the volumes. On pricing, we have been able to maintain a reasonable performance despite the onset of pricing pressure from our competitors. Thus far, the lower variable cost in some categories, such as freight and energy cost, is overcompensated by higher fixed cost, unfortunately, and a significant increase in people cost. Therefore, the pricing resilience is so important for us. We do still expect pricing pressure in the fourth quarter and also going into next year as the main factors to watch in our business performance.
Raw material pricing still have a potential to further decline and therefore increase this pressure. They have already moved lower than previously in the third quarter of this year. Finished goods pricing, compared to one year ago, was stronger for us in the cement and lime and non-ferrous segments, but that simply reflects the late cycle nature of these businesses when we compare them for the steel industry, where, already our prices now are not higher anymore than last year. If we look forward now and there, an outlook, we have to say that we have sufficient confidence following the performance that we've already delivered, during the year, to raise our 2023 EBITDA guidance to the EUR 380 million minimum that I, I mentioned before.
This is based on stronger than forecasted delivery in the third quarter, mainly on the bottom line, rather than any more bullish outlook in the fourth quarter. Looking further ahead, based on our own order book, we see limited signs, and I think this is an optimistic term, of any recovery in customer demand in 2024. We will continue to manage the business accordingly, just like we have during the whole of 2023. This means operating our plants below their full capacity, well below the full capacity, to match demand and match and achieve our inventory coverage targets. With the associated impact on, of course, lower fixed cost absorptions and higher fixed costs per unit. On pricing, we will remain as disciplined as possible, like during the quarter of this year. Let me speak about M&A a little bit.
While we navigate these difficult trading conditions, we have continued to diligently work to deliver our strategic growth plans, and they are mostly driven by our acquisition activities. The latest acquisition that we completed on the third of October this year was the purchase P-D Refractories. P-D is a Germany, Czech Republic, and Slovenia-based producer of high-quality silica and alumina-based refractories, with a leading position in the glass and in the aluminum markets. Their focus is on complex, high-value added project executions, so dozens of different products delivered all at once for a big CapEx project of a customer. The opportunities to generate value from the P-D acquisition are numerous, and I would say that this is one of the more exciting acquisitions that we have made so far.
As well as the usual procurement savings and cross-selling opportunities, logistics, efficiency savings, P-D has some very interesting raw material assets, which we will be able to use across our global network with vertical integration benefits. Good RHI Magnesita tradition. We will also bring our expertise in recycling to the P-D product portfolio to offer more sustainable options to customers. The P-D acquisition has to be seen in connection with the acquisitions of Dalmia in India, SÖRMAŞ in Türkiye, and Chongqing in China. All of these three are also in the same product category of high-quality alumina and silica products. RHI Magnesita is now a global leader for these materials also. Since P-D is already generating a solid EBITDA, the acquisition does not add materially to our gearing position on a pro forma basis.
We are continuing to selectively assess further acquisition opportunities to strengthen our product or our geographic presence in line with our strategy and continuing what we have done in the past two years. Let me hand over to Ian now, who will give you some more, deep dives into some of the financials, of this quarter. Ian?
Thank you, Stefan. I'm pleased to report that third quarter EBITDA was similar to the levels achieved in the first quarter and the second quarter, and ahead of our expectations. The EBITDA margin reduced slightly to 11.2% from 11.6% in the first half, but remains well ahead of the 10% guidance we originally gave at the start of the year. This reflects the benefit of resilient pricing. Margins were supported by lower input costs for raw materials, for energy, and for freight, but this was offset by a reduced fixed cost absorption due to low production levels. Vertical integration margins continued to be low at 1.8%, being temporarily compressed by low raw material prices and weak fixed cost absorption in our raw material plants due to low production levels.
We also delivered another quarter of strong cash generation, with year-to-date EBITDA cash conversion of more than 120%. Working capital before M&A remained stable in the quarter, as the benefit of lower inventory values were offset by non-cash currency translation impacts and an increase in volumes in line with management expectations. This is a period when inventories are normally increased in the industrial division ahead of the fourth quarter 2023 and the first quarter of 2024's cement season. As we move through 2023, it's important to consider the financial impact of M&A, which has increased our net debt by approximately EUR 430 million in the year- to- date. This figure includes cash consideration paid, working capital absorption in newly acquired businesses, and any financial debt that has been consolidated on acquisition.
We also raised EUR 100 million of new equity funding in our India subsidiary in April, offsetting the cash outlay on acquisitions in that region. Acquired businesses were guided at the half-year stage to contribute around EUR 40 million of EBITDA in 2023. There will be a little bit more from P-D Refractories following the completion of that acquisition on the third of October, but there will only be one quarter of contribution from P-D in 2023. Taking into account the strong performance of the base business, the contribution to EBITDA from acquired businesses, and the increase in net debt due to M&A, we expect that the net debt to EBITDA will be in line with our target range of up to 2x-2.5x at the year-end.
Overall, we are very pleased with the performance our teams globally have dlivered in the third quarter, and that we are able to raise full- year EBITDA guidance to more than EUR 380 million. With that, Stefan and I will be very happy to take your questions. Thank you.
We now begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wish to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Anyone with a question may press star and one at this time. The first question from the phone is from Harry Philips of Peel Hunt. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone.
Good morning.
A couple of questions, please. Good morning. Just in terms of— I sort of hate asking you this sort of question, but the M&A pipeline, I mean, you've done nine in two years, which is clearly a pretty, pretty busy track record. But I was just wondering, sort of availability, are more options becoming available? And I'm guessing, obviously, you're wanting those opportunities to appear more in emerging market type territories, rather than maybe mainland Europe, albeit P-D was obviously in Europe. And then just secondly, in terms of sort of where plant utilization is and so on, how long do you think you run at these lower rates?
And then at what point is there a sort of tipping moment where these lower line speeds become a sort of long-term reality and therefore, sort of more action is required around the cost base?
Okay. So, look, the M&As, this is not a plannable science activity. This is of course—t here, there are many, many variables, many people issues there. I can tell you, Harry, every single one of those nine deals took more or less three years from the day we start a conversation until we have closing. Very different reasons why they take three years, but bottom line, that's how long they take.
Yeah.
So, I think, in our industry, we can only have an M&A growth strategy if we're prepared to stay at it for the long term. Therefore, we will continue on this avenue.
Yeah, we have many more discussions. There are enough targets. There are actually more people now coming to us and inquiring whether they can join our group, and the opportunities are all around the world. We will, of course, from a rather not strengthen Europe, because this is a shrinking market. But of course it has great consolidation opportunities, that's why we did P-D. But P-D is not a European business, it's just a European-based business, but it's very global actually. And these very complex projects, this is one of those product categories where Europe will remain competitive despite CBAM and CO2 cost and all of these things, because they're very high value-added products, where those cost elements are not that relevant. And the European quality of managing complexity still is a good competitive advantage.
That's why we did this. But otherwise, yeah, of course, the world is growing in the east, and therefore, our focus is there as well. Plant utilization, we have these discussions every time there's a downturn, every few years, but we've also learned after every downturn, there's an upturn. And, you know, 5% lower demand from customers doesn't sound like a lot, but it actually impacts us quite a bit. Once we have 5% upturn, it also requires all the effort possible for our plants to run as fast as possible to meet demand. So I think there's no real weakness in our network at this point in time.
We, coming from demand fluctuations, it just is what it is, and especially those regions in the Western world and in the more industrialized world, where fixed costs are more difficult to manage. We're learning there how to become a little bit more flexible with our fixed costs, variablizing some of them. So certainly there's some room for improvement still here. We will, after all the M&As, do an in-depth network analysis towards the second half of next year. But that's not triggered by demand upswing or downswing, but more triggered by the now much bigger production network as a result of the M&As. And there could very well be one or two sites that we could consolidate, but no decision has been taken yet because we need to do the integrations first.
No, of course. And, and then just sort of coming at that maybe a different way and thinking into recovery with your, you know, with the, as you say, the, the greater flexibility in your fixed overhead and what have you, which is, you know, 11.2% margin when you're running at 70% utilization. Sort of turning it the other way and we go into recovery, would you hope that—a nd I'm not asking for a forecast as such, but would you hope that your drop-through could step up a level when, when that recovery comes? Or flexibility on sort of downside resilience means you, you know, you don't get quite the same dramatic drop-through when, when volumes come back.
No, of course, we should see a margin increase. Of course.
But beyond the sort of normal historical parameters that—
You just said you—
Delivered in—
Didn't ask for a forecast.
Okay. Okay, thank you.
Yeah, I mean, Harry, if you look at our fixed cost absorption, you'll see in the year-end results it's currently running under by almost EUR 90 million for the full year. So year-on-year, there is another EUR 25 million hit to our EBITDA because of lower fixed cost absorption.
Yeah.
Despite all of the action that has been taken around, for example, the production optimization plan. So as your capacity utilization improves from where it is at the moment to around 70%, certainly you would expect that operational leverage to benefit your earnings and your margins.
No, don't, don't count on the full EUR 90 million, but a good piece of it, of course, this is the upside.
I thought you weren't making forecasts, so, I'll put that back in. Thank you.
Of course, sir. Next question, please.
As a reminder, if you want to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from Dominic Convey with Numis. Please go ahead.
Good morning, gents. Yeah, two questions, if I may. Firstly, if you could, obviously avoiding a forecast for next year, but just give us a little bit of help on the bridge, because you do talk about the potential for self-help benefit and obviously the impact, the annualization impact of the M&A, offering some mitigation against tough markets in 2024. So I just wonder if you could maybe quantify the potential self-help benefit next year, and also what the annualization of the M&A impact from this year might be. And second question, just, just give a little bit more color about what assumptions you've made for Q4, specifically around the pricing environment and the margin within that new EBITDA guidance for this year. Thank you.
So, Dominic, let me take the first question. So I think that you're right, it is too early for us to provide quantitative guidance for 2024. It's not an easy environment. There's still a lot of uncertainty. While we can't fully control the volumes for 2024. It's also clear that going into 2024, our backward integration margin is likely to remain weak. We do have levers that are within our control that will benefit our performance in 2024. Very importantly, they come from the M&A, not only the annualized impact, but also the synergies and the benefit of Preiss-Daimler. So if you look at our EBITDA forecast for this year from M&A, that was EUR 40 million. The annualization of that is around another EUR 20 million of EBITDA, and if you then add Preiss-Daimler, that is approaching EUR 20 million.
We would expect to see those benefits coming through in 2024. We also have the benefits of our strategic sales and cost reduction initiatives, which continue to add some value. We shouldn't forget the importance of our geographic diversification. While Brazil is soft, Europe remains soft, we have the strength out of India, where we are the clear number one player, generating strong margins with a highly supportive customer base who like our product and service offering. So those will support our earnings going into 2024.
Your second question, when we talk about our Q4 assumptions, we now assume no volume improvements overall in Q4. That's more pessimistic than we had hoped for in the middle of the year. And that impacts the steel business, and it impacts the projects business, because quite a few projects have been postponed to next year. On the counter side, there's the cement season, of course, so we have an increase in volumes in the cement business, but that's 15% of the company. As a result of this slightly more pessimistic volume outlook, we also will reduce the production in some of our raw material plants. That increases proportionately this fixed cost absorption, so that's another headwind for the fourth quarter. If we take all of this into consideration, we get to EUR 380 million.
Thank you.
Next question, please.
Once again, to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone. There are no more questions from the phone at this time.
No, no questions in the line?
We have a webcast, web question from Roland Könen with Value Holdings. Can you give us an update on the current status of the tender offer from Ignite?
Yes, we can. The regulatory filings are still ongoing. There was a delay because of the P-D closing. Rhône decided to have another request for one of the antitrust authorities. So the closing didn't happen obviously until the end of October, like originally planned, but it shouldn't take much longer. In reality, we're not in control here at all. So we received the information from Rhône also, but in principle, everything's moving forward as planned. We're waiting for the closing now within the next few weeks. Another webcast question, please.
The next webcast question is from Roy Pratim. What is your view on India business?
So India, I'm appreciative for the question. Thank you, Roy, for asking it, because India is the one place that's very different to the whole story that we have been telling since half an hour now. In India, the business is growing. Our business is growing. Our integration has worked quite well. The team is super engaged. Well, they're preparing for quite a lot of upgrades and improvements in all of the different production facilities. You know, we have nine plants in India now, covering the entire industry. This is progressing very well. India—t he India team this year will outperform. The India teams are also responsible for the Middle East, so there's a little bit of a question now there, at least for the fourth quarter.
We don't know how this is, how the political activities in the Middle East are impacting the businesses. Too early to tell. That's maybe the only shadow here. India itself, developing well, no, no dark clouds on the horizon. Good discipline in the market. Customers are very appreciative, super engaged. A lot of production is moving from other parts of the world towards India, so that India gets more resilient as a supply chain. India was relying on a lot of imports in the past, so this is changing rapidly. That's, of course, a benefit when you have a lot of good production infrastructure on the ground. So on India, we are very positive. Any more questions on the web?
No more questions. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back to Stefan Borgas, CEO, for any closing remarks.
Well, thank you very much for dialing in this morning. Just to repeat the key messages, solid trading, which give it in the third quarter, which gives us the opportunity to raise our guidance to EUR 380 million EBITDA at least. This has been achieved through diligent, hard work in all of the operational areas, focused on delivering better value to our customers, and therefore being able to keep pricing reasonably resilient. Third key message, our M&A delivery stays with good momentum. It will continue to contribute over the course of the next years and deliver the growth that we want for our company.
Thank you very much for dialing in this morning, and we look forward to talking to you during the course of the day and the rest of the week. Goodbye from Vienna.