Hello, and welcome to the Robert Walters Q3 Trading Update call. My name is Saskia, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note, this call is being recorded. For the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen-only. However, you will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end. This can be done by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. I will now hand you over to your host, David Bower, to begin today's conference. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, Saskia. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Robert Walters third quarter 2024 trading update. I'm David Bower, Chief Financial Officer, and joining me this morning is Toby Fowlston, our Chief Executive. So hopefully, you've seen the statement we published earlier this morning. Before we move to Q&A, I'll make a few remarks around performance at the group level before Toby touches on trading across our regional segments and then our full-year outlook. Unless otherwise stated, all net fee income percentage movements are in constant currency terms. As you can see, group net fee income of around GBP 80 million was down by 12% year on year in the third quarter, mirroring the year-on-year performance seen in the second quarter.
In that sense, the trading backdrop remains largely consistent with what we were seeing in the summer, with client and candidate confidence levels yet to show signs of material improvement. One contrast to our second quarter, where you might recall we saw a particularly soft exit rate in June, was a more consistent pacing to this third quarter just gone, as implied by the September exit rate, which saw group fee income down by 13% year on year, and therefore broadly consistent with the quarter as a whole. Looking at our service lines, specialist recruitment fee income of around 66 million GBP was down by 12% year on year, within which both perm and temp, and remind that temp comprises our contract and interim offering, they were both down by 12%. In recruitment outsourcing, net fee income of around 14 million GBP was down by 14%.
Turning now to group headcount and productivity. At the end of the third quarter, group headcount stood at 3,466. That was a 4% reduction on the second quarter closing figure. Within this, there was a 7% reduction in the non-fee earner population, as our front office support ratio continued to trend back towards pre-pandemic levels, consistent with the second building block of our program to drive higher medium-term through-cycle margins, as detailed at our Capital Markets Event last month. There was then a 3% reduction in the fee earner population. We continue to be slightly selective in replacing fee earner natural attrition, but our strategic imperative is to ensure that our average fee earner tenure remains strong, leaving us well positioned for when market conditions improve.
With fee earners now down 20% versus the end of the first quarter in 2023, we broadly feel where we have reached is appropriate for the current market conditions. And indeed, looking at the volume productivity of our perm fee earners during the third quarter, this was down just 3% year on year. And when combined with mix and wage inflation benefits, this meant that we saw growth in overall fee earner productivity in terms of net fee income per fee earner, year on year. Following our Capital Markets Event last month, I would remind you that we will be commencing splitting out fee earners and non-fee earners, as well as volume and overall productivity, as part of our standard quarterly disclosures from our fourth quarter trading update in January. So finally from me, turning to look at the balance sheet.
This continues to remain strong, with closing net cash of GBP 50 million at the quarter end, consistent with one of the cornerstone of our capital allocation policy. So I'll now hand over to Toby, who will take you through trading in our regional segments and the full year outlook.
Thanks, David. Good morning, everybody. Let's first turn to look at our specialist recruitment business. All net fee income percentage movements continue to be in constant currency terms and at a segmental level, just relate here to specialist recruitment. Looking first at our Asia Pacific business, net fee income was down 10% year on year. As you know, Japan is a key market for us, and it was pleasing to see another quarter of growth there. We've seen up 3%, albeit that was more than offset by softer conditions in South Korea. Southeast Asia grew by 2%, and that comes on the back of a bit of momentum that's built there in job flow, which has improved over the last six to nine months, albeit from a tough position seen as 2023 closed.
In Australia and New Zealand, which was down 23%, conditions remain very challenging, and in particular, with public sector temp hiring in New Zealand. As a reminder, we did see headwinds increase there around the time of the newly elected government shifting away from the use of temp labor towards the back end of last year. In Greater China, we've seen down overall by 12% to positive performance in Mainland China , but more than offset by softer conditions in Hong Kong. Turning to look at Europe, specialist recruitment net fee income was down 13%. As expected, in France, our largest European market, activity was more muted in the quarter due to the Olympic Games. However, the September exit rate in France was slightly better than quarter three as a whole.
Belgium, down 14%, continued to annualize tough comparatives, and you may recall that the first half of 2023 was a record for our business there. Of our larger European markets, we did see slightly more resilience in the Netherlands, which was down 10% overall, but did deliver modest growth in perm, really for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2022. Germany, down 4%, was also pretty resilient, with a notable performance by the interim business there. Now turning to the U.K. Net fee income was down 26%, so a fair bit softer than the pacing we saw during the second quarter, and as noted in the statement, we did see clients generally choose to pause activity as they awaited clarity on the now published employment rights legislation of the new government.
Combined with the Budget taking place later this month, this has generally given incentive for clients to adopt a wait and see approach, with fees down in quarter three by 19% and 29% respectively in London and the regions. In the Rest of the World , we saw the most resilient segmental performance year on year of our specialist recruitment businesses, with fees down 4%. We saw another good performance in the Middle East, with fees up 12%, although this was more than offset by softer conditions in LatAm. Now turning to our recruitment outsourcing business. As you heard from David a moment ago, fees overall were down 14%.
Looking around the region, where the fee income split in the quarter was just over half coming from the U.K., a quarter coming from Asia Pacific, and just under a quarter from Rest of the World . U.K. recruitment outsourcing was down 13%, with Asia Pacific down 23% and Rest of World up 2%. Reflective of still greater caution among clients, non-perm volume hiring was slightly more resilient than perm. Before turning to the full year outlook, let me just give a few brief comments on how activity levels trended during the quarter, and by this, we're really thinking about job flow, interviews, and placements, all on a per fee earner basis. At the group level, job flow trended broadly as we'd expect, with a reduction in August versus July, given the Northern Hemisphere holiday season.
There was then a bit of a further reduction into September, but job flow held up better than we saw in September last year, and interviews and placements followed a broadly similar shape. Commenting more selectively around the regions, in Asia Pacific, we have seen signs of stabilization in ANZ job flow, albeit at levels much reduced compared to last year and the peak, and I noted in my earlier remarks that momentum in Southeast Asia job flow continued to be positive. Meanwhile, in Europe, unsurprisingly, given traditional summer vacations, job flow and interviews came off in the latter part of the quarter, consistent with last year and as we would expect. We'll be keenly focused on trends through October and November to see if the build up seen last year is replicated.
Finally, just before we move to Q&A, some comments around how we're thinking about the full year outlook. As we referenced in the statement, hiring markets do remain challenging, with the period of decline seen since the peak now running to about two years, and in that sense, longer, I think, than most of the industry expected. As we sit here today, our previously stated assumption that marked improvement in client, in client and candidate confidence levels will be gradual and likely to not commence until 2025 , that remains unchanged. The effects of last year and the COVID's impact in 2020 , we have historically seen a seasonal profile whereby second half fees have been slightly bigger than the first half.
However, as we called out in this morning's statement, given market conditions and the very near-term outlook, we think it is unlikely that fees in the second half will exceed the GBP 166 million we saw in the first half. That being said, we have seen progress on lowering our cost base this year, and actions there continue, and we will continue to aim for profitable full year outcomes. That concludes our prepared remarks, and with that, we'll open up for Q&A.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question on today's call, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. That is star one for your questions today, and up first, we have Tom Callan from Investec. Please go ahead.
Thanks, morning, gents. Hope you're both well. Three questions from me, please. Firstly, can you just touch on, in terms of what you're seeing in terms of margins and fee rates on the sort of temp side of the business? Secondly, you know, good performance in the Middle East. I think second quarter on the bounce of really strong growth. What drove that specifically? Any sort of read across to what was flagged at the CMD in terms of the sort of really helpful dynamics in that Southeast Asian market? Is there sort of any sort of similarity there?
And then thirdly, could you please touch on job offer sort of rejection rates that you're seeing currently, how that's evolved, if at all, post Q2 , and how does that dynamic vary from region to region? Thanks.
Hi, Tom. So thank you. So I'll answer the Middle East and Southeast Asia question, the job offer rejection rates, and I'll pass over to David for margin and fee rates. Middle East, really, I mean, it's good tenure. We've been in that market for well over a decade now. It is a good market with strong activity levels. As you know, obviously, there's a good strong influx of foreign labor, and obviously, it's clearly an attractive market for employees there. Oil and gas remains fairly significant, and as you know, there's a commitment, certainly in the Middle East, to build a very competitive tech ecosystem and we're well set up to deliver there. And we're seeing obviously some bigger boosts in sectors like tourism, and banking, Islamic banking as well.
Similar to SEA, yes, in the sense of strong productivity growth, I mean, Southeast Asia, four out of our six countries that we operate there have grown year on year in quarter three, and probably Malaysia is a particular call-out. And again, a product really of good tenure and good management. Job offer rejection rates, it hasn't really changed. I mean, the general trend as you know, 2021 and 2022, we were seeing sort of three to four candidates being interviewed before they were being offered the role. That has extended out to more like eight to 10 candidates now. So it unfortunately continues to be a confidence issue. Rejection largely down to counter offers, which we've seen probably more now than we've ever seen before.
We know it's a sticky plaster solution, but that's the reality of the current confidence challenge that we're in at the moment.
Thanks, David. And on the margins and fee rate, clients are holding up really, really well, and indeed, probably, you know, the temp margins are up ever so slightly, year-on-year. Yeah, I think overall, really reflecting on that point that Toby gave reference on, you know, the number of candidates that clients are wanting to see, et cetera. I think generally that's meaning that, clients expect that we're doing, you know, a lot of work to get them great candidates, and when we land them a candidate, they're happy to reward it. So yes, fee rate's holding up, really well at the moment. Thanks.
Thank you. And our next question now comes from Steve Woolf, from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Morning, all. Just a couple from me. I'm left with just comments on Germany, please, on the interim business in terms of what end markets are given. It's a good performance, given where, you know, the economy and the macro signals seem to be out at the minute. Secondly, on Japan, another great performance. Again, you know, what roles, what industries are you perhaps feeding into? And then thirdly, with your comments about buybacks from companies, what sort of wage inflation are being offered out there that companies are then confident to, you know, buy back with, if that makes sense?
Yeah. So, Japan, I'll start straight away. Roles and industry, I mean, it's such a specialized business in Japan. I think I've used the example before, just our sales and marketing division has 17 different teams. So, you know, we've got a lot of tenure there. You've got good fee rates there, as you know. We have got excellent retention there as well, in terms of our people. And very much, it's a, it's a market that's been forged for us. So that's held us in good stead. And really, particularly with AI, what we're seeing is we're seeing more and more data coming at our clients. So the speed of application of candidates is far, far greater now than it's ever been.
Right.
Now, the consequence of that, of course, is that our clients are just inundated with more and more information, and that they need someone to help them with that information, and they also need to understand the truth, so the importance of relationships, and I talk about relationships being the currency of the future, is so critical, so the clients know that they're getting the truth in terms of what they're actually being sent. Japan, so we're not particularly heavy in the automotive sector, which obviously has been under quite a lot of pressure in Japan. It is still for us, a relatively fledgling business, so it is growing. And interim is a big growth area for us, particularly in that sort of Northern European , Continental European businesses. And that's held us in good stead, and that continues to grow in Germany.
Then in terms of buyback and wage inflation, I mean, it largely depends on what sector, or sorry, what discipline rather. So I can give you some examples right now. Tax, employment lawyers, real estate lawyers, particularly with what we're seeing at the moment in terms of employment rights. You've got obviously the minimum wage increase. You've got probably almost certainly National Insurance increases coming with the Budget. So all of that points to higher wage inflation in some of those types of roles.
Okay. Cheers. And then one, just one follow-up. I mean, this is slightly holistic. You know, confidence is what everybody is, you know, obviously has been the theme for, you know, the last six, 12 months. What is it in your view that gets this, you know, broken, that gets people moving, so, yeah, so the job churn can recommence? You know, is it just better headlines on the TV, newspapers, confidence, you know, New Year, you know, post bonuses, maybe even any pay rises? What do you think is gonna be the catalyst that, you know, starts hopefully, you know, improving the world as such?
Yeah, I think it's all of those. I mean, media, definitely. I think you've got obviously elections, U.S. We'll see obviously. We'll get some certainty, whatever way that goes. I think obviously things like, and I think actually this is really important, interest rates as well. You know, with that, of course, you start to see greater investment and borrowing from some of these larger corporations that stimulates more sort of job creation and increased productivity. So I think there's a whole range of different factors, to be honest with you. So once we start seeing some of those signs improving, then I think we'll start to see that confidence pick up and create more movement in the job market. And it really comes down to candidates, fundamentally candidates actually physically moving jobs.
Perfect. That's great. Thanks very much, Toby.
Thank you, and as a brief reminder, that is star one for your questions today. Up next, we have a question from Sanjay Vidyarthi from Panmure Liberum. Please go ahead.
Morning, Toby, David, just one for me, please. In terms of the year ahead, would 3% underlying cost inflation be a fair assumption? I know obviously there'll be a lot of initiatives underway to mitigate that, but are we looking at maybe 9-10 million of cost growth, just in terms of the inflationary side of things? Would that be a fair start point?
Yes. No, not unreasonable. We, as we talked about the capital markets day, you know, 70-80% of our cost base is people related. And we, you know, we've got good people. We've retained some really great people, so we'll want to ensure we reward them appropriately for their work. Clearly, we are working on productivity improvements. We're working on, you know, other aspects of the building blocks, whether it be different parts of functions, core functions and procurement. So we are working very hard to mitigate cost increases by being more productive, more efficient, more selective. But yeah, ultimately, on average and underlying, inflation would not be a bad assumption to start with.
Okay. That's great. Thank you very much.
Thank you, and as a final reminder, that is star one for your questions. We will pause for a brief moment. And we just received a follow-up question from Steve Woolf of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Sorry, just to come back on something, PageGroup mentioned yesterday about clients becoming, you know, increasingly picky over hires and making sure they want to get the right one. So they would go through that process that you would flag three to four, you know, candidates, up to eight to 10, but still get to the final, you know, one to two, and then, you know, not be happy enough and saying, "You know, please go and start the process again." Is that something of a trend you've seen, or is it generally it is just that part of four to five candidates has gone up to eight to 10 candidates? What's you know, what do you think sort of regarding their comments, is it a similar trend?
Yeah, I think it is. I think it comes down to what our hiring clients want to believe. You know, do we believe that these are the best candidates that are available? You know, we know that unemployment is low from a client perspective. We know that there is a reticence to move. So I think it's that niggling doubt in the back of clients' minds, thinking, "Am I seeing the very best people here?" At a point where they're also under you know quite a lot of cost pressure to make sure they get the hire right because of course you get the hire wrong then that you know there's a cost impact of that. So again to me that plays very much into tenure.
You know, I think we mentioned in the CMD, our tenure of staff now, over 80% of our freelancers have more than 12 months' experience. If I go back to September 2022, it's more like 60%. The importance of tenure specialist recruiters and, you know, I'm an advocate for flexibility, but having people together in the office and building those face-to-face relationships, and I've said before, relationships are the currency of the future. The ability to influence and to really make that incisive comment with the client around, "No, these are the best people. We now need to make a decision," is critical.
That's great. Thanks very much.
Thanks. I think also, Steve, one other thing as well is speed, and we all know-
Right.
That in speed of business, the speed of decision is critical. So, you know, and unfortunately, because again, clients are second guessing, "Is it the best person? And really, I'm under pressure to make certain this hire really works." So again, the importance of trying to get speed into the process is very important.
Great. That's great. Thanks, Toby.
Thank you, and as there are currently no further questions in the queue, I'd like to hand the call back over to you, Toby, for any additional or closing remarks.
Nothing more from me or David, just to say thank you very much to everybody who joined the call this morning.
Thank you, and that concludes today's call. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.