S4 Capital plc (LON:SFOR)
London flag London · Delayed Price · Currency is GBP · Price in GBX
40.65
+0.30 (0.74%)
Apr 24, 2026, 4:35 PM GMT
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: Q3 2020

Nov 9, 2020

Speaker 1

That's obviously a large chunk of these revenues go to the cloud computing players, Google Cloud, AWS for Amazon or Azure for Microsoft. But again, there are significant services revenues here for our data practice around data engineering, systems integration, cloud migration, analytics, visualization, etcetera. Now this is not an exhaustive analysis of all the components that make up our addressable market, but hopefully, it illustrates that there is a multi, multibillion dollar opportunity. And all parts of it are in serious growth mode. The final chart on the bottom right there shows the revenues of the top 25 advertising groups according to Ad Age.

And this includes all the holding companies, includes the digital parts of the consulting companies such as Accenture Interactive or Deloitte Digital and many of the

Speaker 2

large independents. And this all adds up to $120,000,000,000

Speaker 1

of revenue, and that's something we're determined to disrupt and win more than our fair share of. If we head down to the next chart, I'm going to cover clients. So go to the next chart. Q3 was a very strong quarter for new business. In particular, two wins that I would highlight.

You've all probably heard of the BMW win, which is our latest whopper, which Victor and the team at MediaMonks did a fantastic job on over almost a year of pitching. We won a major assignment to digital creative and production across all the European markets. We're very much at the center of what they're calling the engine to deliver that. On the digital media side, T Mobile is a large win for MightyHive. So Pete and the team brought that in, and that's an in housing opportunity for them, really an extension of the work that we've done for Sprint.

And so that's a great additional win for them. Other clients, as you can see on here, we have St. Jude's Hospital, also some in housing work Shopify, doing a lot of work for them out of Canada Klarna, which is a very interesting fintech platform MercadoLibre and Whirlpool, which are both big wins for us in Latin America across all of our service offerings, so across data, creative and digital media. And then Beyond Meat and Sunrun, who are disruptors in their respective fields, whether that's FMCG or the energy sector. And then on the expand side of things, we continue to win assignments for our major clients.

So you can see many of them down here and continue to expand our remit to all of those clients. If you head to the next slide, you'll see our client portfolio. So this is based on 100% of our revenue for the first three quarters. And it's very similar actually to what you've seen in the previous two quarters. Actually, technology has had a slight uptick, so it's now 55% of our revenue and something we'd certainly like to maintain because those are the companies that have been growing very solidly through COVID and investing heavily in marketing.

You'll see the other sectors, FMCG, another decent sector for us, something that's also done well during COVID. And you'll see, I would imagine, the next quarter or two, an uptick in auto as the BMW revenue starts to kick in. We head down to the next slide. I'm going to cover what we've been up to in the merger side. So head on to the next slide.

We've done three mergers in the third quarter. So in July 2020, we did Orca Pacific, which is the full service Amazon agency based in Seattle. And in early September, we did Brightblue, which is the econometric measurement and modeling company based in London. And then in late September, we announced DARE. WIN, which is opening up the French market for us, so Wally and his colleagues on the creative side of the business.

We continue to have a strong pipeline in M and A. We have several similar sized deals, so sort of smaller and midsized deals in due diligence right now. And we are seeing significant interest, partly, I think, due to concerns around tax laws changing in markets like The U. S. And The U.

K. But there's certainly some pretty frenetic activity out there and a few interesting larger targets sort of that are on the market right now that we're looking at. Particular focus in data and digital media, expanding our capabilities there, a couple of geographical opportunities in markets like Germany and then further expansion into e commerce and digital transformation. And with that, I will hand you over to Martin for the summary.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thanks, Scott. Thanks, Peter. So let me just try and summarize on the last slide before the Q and A slide where we are. I think firstly and most importantly, our people and their families are generally safe and mostly still working from home.

The picture is a little bit different on where you are talking about. For example, in Asia Pacific, I think probably about 25 to 50% of our people are in the office. In Western Europe, it's probably about 10% or 20%. And then in The Americas, both North and South, it's much more limited. Obviously, the news about the vaccine, the Pfizer vaccine a few minutes ago will have an impact.

And that's very much in our planning for next year, which I'll come on to in a second. Broad diversity, equity and inclusion programs have played a big part of our activities in the first nine months of this year. And we have 40% people of color representation throughout the company and the gender balance, but there's clearly more to do in the black community. We're about 5% to 6% black population in The United States. In the various parts of the country in which we operate in, there are some low and some higher.

In California, the proportion is about that 3% or 4% or 5%. But in New York, for example, it's 25%. We've committed to represent the communities in which we operate. And so obviously, we have to up our game and we're doing that with our hiring and education programs and in particular the minority programs, the Black minority programs that we've already instituted around high schools and Black universities. So a big effort in that area.

In terms of Q3, as Peter laid out, very strong performance, both in comparison to the tech companies, which we are more aligned with and indeed the advertising holding companies, 23% performance against down for all the holding ad holding companies of around 5% to 10%. And we're now back to our pre COVID levels of performance in January and February in terms of revenue growth and indeed margins and reaching our targeted performance. We said that we had a fighting chance of reaching our three our recent other two, three year plans of doubling the size of the company over three years. And we now think that we're in a very strong position to do that. And Q4, as Peter also said, is on track to deliver continued strong double digit top line and bottom line performance and target margins for 2020.

We don't share the uncertainty that the ad holding companies exhibited in relation to Q4 and the impact of the increased lockdowns, particularly in Western Europe might have, we see a continuation of digital activity and digital disruption. And we believe we have an even stronger fighting chance, as I referred to you before, delivering the twenty twenty three year plan to double the size of the company organically. Our new plan for twenty twenty one-three also embodies exactly the same objective, doubling the top and bottom line over three years. That implies about a 24% growth in the top line going into the budgets, for example, for next year and maintaining the 20% EBITDA margins after central costs. So strong margins still, which, as we indicated, have improved in Q3 and are back to where we want for the full year 2020.

The budgets for 2021, as I said, are showing growth like for like growth of 25% and bottom line growth of similar level and are consistent with all our three year plans. We think that 2021 looks like twenty twenty twenty ten in terms of performance. So you may recall that the subprime crisis and the great financial crisis of two thousand and eight in September resulted in the TARP program, which took Paulson a fair amount of time to negotiate with Congress that came in, in February. And then 2010 surprised on the upside. And we think the same for 2021.

I was looking at the latest forecast for GDP, global GDP for next year, and they look to be around 5%. I think Goldman is going for 6% next year. And intriguingly, for 2022, they're looking at 3% to 4%, which is stronger than, I thought they were going to be. So I certainly think that '21 will have macroeconomic tailwinds. The vaccine developments are obviously crucial.

In our planning, we've assumed that the vaccine is approved, available, distributed and people are being vaccinated with another issue by the second quarter of next year and that looks now pretty feasible. And there are micro tailwinds helping us. Our Whopper, BMW, MINI Europe, which we spent some time this morning with Victor on our European and Asian call talking about and indeed the the the win that Scott referred to in digital media around T Mobile following the Sprint in housing a year or so ago. So that those tailwinds will help our growth next year. And we believe we're in sight of a further whopper as we call them.

That is a client accounting for more than 20% of our revenue. We have three major ones at the moment, Google a second tech client, which we are NDA ed on, that you can imagine who that is Our third being BMW, and we believe we're on the cusp of a fourth. And maybe even a fifth as we move into next year in terms of land and expand strategy around another tech cloud. So we think by the end of this year, going into next year, we will have five or close to five who will be tech clouds, one in FMCG and one in auto. This all represents concrete evidence of client conversion at scale, which was the objective for 2020.

2018, you remember, we were talking about brand awareness, 2019 brand trial and 2020, the beginning of client conversion at scale and achieving and making more significant progress on our 20 squared client objective. That is to have 20 clients or 20,000,000 revenue or more. As Scott said, the merger pipeline is very strong and active, particularly given the concern around Blue Wave and potential tax hikes. Whether that comes to pass or not, I guess, depends on what happens in Georgia on January 5. The historical precedent seemed to indicate that we will probably have a Republican Senate with a Democratic House of Representatives and of course, a democratic president.

And that may actually introduce some balance into economic policy, not too hot, not too cold, maybe the Goldilocks type of economy that we were used to in the world a few years ago. It would be interesting to see obviously how President-elect Biden and Mitch McConnell work out a modus with Rembe and we'll see that probably will and then the markets are signaling this will indicate some compromise, not the extremes, but some compromise between the two. Finally, we have a very strong management team with a unitary P and L approach and a heavy integration focus. And we're having we will have a heightened unitary rebranding of the firm as a whole to come in early twenty twenty one, which celebrates the twentieth anniversary of Media Month. So that's the background.

Fraser, I think we can now move to any questions, if there are

Speaker 3

you.

Speaker 4

The first question is from the line of Michael Levine at Pivotal Research Group. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 5

Congratulations on the terrific results, guys. I guess a question for all three of you. I mean, I'm curious, obviously, pretty interesting announcement this morning with regards to the vaccine. You know, as you guys are talking to clients about their planning for next year, I know this lines up nicely, sir Martin, with your view in terms of in terms of macro. Like, have they you know, are they doing basically decision tree analysis and saying if this happens, then, you know, marketing goes to x?

You know, like, I'm I'm just curious, like, what's your, what your view is like in terms of how fast assuming we continue to get validation over this. And I guess it's also happening in an interesting time of the year because people are still probably locking down what they're thinking about for 2021.

Speaker 2

Yes. I think it's very difficult, I think, to generalize, Michael. I think what we're seeing is the more V shaped sectors are what you would anticipate, namely tech and healthcare. Package goods and autos tend to be more U shaped. I think this is these developments around the Pfizer vaccine and of course there are other vaccines that may play a role too.

I think some of the analysts were expecting one or two vaccines to be approved by the end of this year. But this does, I think, change the game. And you see that in the market's reaction to planning. Our own planning, for what it's worth, has been based on the second quarter of next year as being the vaccine introduction quarter. And I think most of the organizations that we talked to have been planning along those lines.

The tech companies hadn't really opened up their offices or said they wouldn't open up their offices until the end of Q2 of next year. Companies like Google and Facebook and indeed Amazon end of Q1 and end of Q2. So I think this is all good news and it indicates why President Trump was so keen on trying to get news out about the vaccine before the election. And it's interesting that it's come just one week after the election. And I think this 90% confidence level that dealing with COVID is really interesting.

And I think it be an extremely strong positive force. And to your point, we'll probably encourage clients to be more optimistic. And I think the general feeling I have is that they will want to each company will want to move ahead quicker. It's rather like a coiled spring, I think, the last six months. They've been probably damping down and resisting expansion or expansionist thoughts.

I think this will open up the spigots probably faster than we anticipate. Scott, do you want to comment on any client activity that you see or hear?

Speaker 1

Well, I think I mean, you have to go back to our sort of client exposure chart and understand that given our exposure to technology clients, that's a sector that's done very well in the past year and I think big plans for next year as well. So I think that puts us in a very good place. Obviously, you then have BMW win, which is a significant one, that's going to up our auto category. And we've been winning a lot of business of sort of disruptors in the sector, I guess, who tend to invest heavily, kind of ahead of revenues to drive that disruption. So I think we're in a very strong place for next year.

And I think when it comes to COVID, obviously, there was the dip in March and April, and I think that was a lot of that was driven by panic and clients having to adjust to working from home and not really understanding anything about how the virus was going to affect everyone. I mean, the reality is the irony is that the COVID numbers are worse than ever, but I think everyone sort of settled into the new reality. And so with markets going into new lockdowns in Europe, I don't think it's going to have the same drastic effect on advertisers' plans and spends. I think there's a lot more stability in the market now. So I think we feel very comfortable with how things are going to go for the rest of the year for us and pretty comfortable about the planning processes that are in place for next year.

Speaker 2

We're just responding immediately to when these news came out, what, a few an hour or so ago. But I mean, what's interesting is you think about the travel and hospitality industries, which are being crippled by COVID. I mean, if there is an effective vaccine and if it is gonna come in in fairly short order, let's say, in Q1, Q2 of next year, obviously, this announcement probably drags it further forward from Q2 of next year. That will have an impact on the tech industry, a positive impact because some of the largest advertisers, as you well know, Michael, the tech platforms have been in the travel and hospitality category. So that will open up and that's been that's not been dormant.

It's not been completely off the radar screen, but it's been pretty low level for the last three to six months. So I think actually this is going to be quite a significant development psychologically in terms of client thinking. And if they hadn't been doing what you were talking about before, that's sort of scenario analysis about what if, and I think many of them have. If they haven't been doing it before, they certainly will do it now because I think this will encourage them to take a more expansive position. Peter, anything you want to add from your perspective?

Speaker 3

No, I think that's covered it. But Scott, said so.

Speaker 2

Fraser, congratulations. Any questions? At this stage, the team is actually I

Speaker 4

think one is just jumping in. Okay. We go to the line of Becky Lane at Jefferies. Becky, please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Speaker 6

Hi, and well done also on some very strong results. I've just got two questions, if that's okay. Firstly, the growth in headcount is is impressive, especially in, you know, context of the the wider market. What are you seeing in terms of trends in that neighborhood, especially given, obviously, you know, some of the struggles that the the holding companies, are are up against? And secondly, relating to that, you know, you previously talked about, you know, supply and capacity constraints, rather than, you know, any constraints on, you know, incoming and demand from clients.

What do you think going into next year with the vaccine use, etcetera? What are your capacity constraints, especially relating to, you know, properly integrating mergers which have happened and also adding to that headcount? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Okay. Okay. Thanks, Becky. I mean, as you know, the headcount in the first nine months was up about 26%, so we're particularly proud of that. And we now have 3,000 people, so, in in the firm in thirty one countries we added Germany and probably we're responsible for about 10,000 people one way or another given the average family sizes.

So we're proud of the fact that more and more people are becoming dependent on S4 in the future. So with that as background, on the labor pool, I mean, you may have seen one of the analysts' reports that looked at our the nature of our workforce. It was highlighted again today, I saw in another press article, the nature of our workforce in comparison to the holding companies. In this case, the analysts compared it to WPP and Publicis. And we have very many more tech people and people from other industries as opposed to the agency industry.

We're dominated more by the tech platforms and the hardware and the software companies and the platform companies that populate the tech industry. So it's a very different type of workforce. For BMW, as we were talking about this morning, our content practice is really hiring about 300 people, not all in Germany and not all in Europe, but about 300 people for BMW MINI in Europe. We are highly confident of a further addition to our 20 squared roster, Whopper roster, that shortly, and we're already actually in the process of hiring for that, and that will be another 300 people to another roughly 10% of our headcount, mainly in America initially, but spreading into Asia Pacific and perhaps into Europe after that. So we're starting to hire.

And we're getting a lot of inbound interest anyway because Pete's known in the market that we are expanding, which is a rare ish phenomenon in the advertising and marketing services industry at the moment. And the head of holding companies were forecast to be shedding about 50,000 people worldwide and the industry in America, independents and holding companies, 50,000 this year by I think Forrester made that forecast. So there is a considerable pool of talent available. The nature of our talent is slightly different. We do recruit from the polling companies, and we are And I think without wanting to sound too arrogant about it, I think this is I can't remember a time where it has been easier to pick off people, good really good people from our competition.

And that includes the consultancies as well. So I think that that is background. I think we feel pretty good. I mean, obviously, we have to recruit aggressively given the scale and the impact that some of these wins are having on us. On the supply constraint, Peter and Scott, you may have you here, we did experience a supply constraint, I would say, around May, June maybe June going into July.

I think it's eased a little bit as we've taken the foot off the break on hiring. We did, as a result of COVID, put a break on hiring. But we've now resumed that And we have to because as we prepare for next year for the auto win in Europe and indeed for other things. But I don't sense at the moment that there is a constraint. I think there's this whereas you were asking the question, Becky, I thought that we have because these are the significance of these things, think we have to bed them down.

We must make sure that BMW MINI is successful. Anything else that comes our way, we have to make sure they're so high profile and they're so important to us and to our clients that we must make sure that they work really effectively. And there'll be a very good example to others. For example, in Germany, we've already seen two or three clients express interest in approaching creative and production in a very similar way to the way the BMW MINI in Europe is looking at it. So I think big opportunities there.

I don't see a constraint as yet, but we'll have to work our way through 2021. Scott, do you see anything on the supply constraint side?

Speaker 1

No, I think you've covered it. And then you're asking about M and A as well, Becky. Mean, we've talked at length, I think, at the Capital Markets Day and on some of our other calls about the importance of integration. We certainly recognize that, but we also, tried to do that as quickly and smoothly as possible. And so far, it's gone very well.

And so most of the deals that we've announced this year have already been integrated into either MediaMonks or MightyHive, that's all continuing.

Speaker 2

Mean, Peter, do you want to say anything about integration and how you see it going back office and everything else?

Speaker 3

Yes. So sure. So integration is, as far as I'm concerned, is going quite well. Like we indicated earlier, immediately, basically, after we signed the deal or, in some cases, even signed an LOI, then we start integrating. That's more driven on top line opportunities, on clients, on sharing, on client wish or across the globe or how can we cater for that from our different service positions.

And but that's one thing. That's more the top line, and that's basically where we all do this all these mergers for. And from more from a sort of back office point of view, what we're currently doing is implementing our systems to be ready for, let's say, early twenty twenty one new payroll systems. We're setting up, and that starts by going to them this week, workshops for our ERP systems or new ERP system at the end of next year or maybe even shortly after that. So there's a lot of activities going on.

We have appointed certain groups, and they may be in the firewood or they may be in MightyHive, which take care of specific tooling or specific projects in relation to integration. And finally, but I think, Becky, we've been speaking about that for a long time now, also, of course, office integration, where we have multiple offices because of the result of new mergers, where we have the opportunity, we immediately take care of that these offices or that those are combined. And specifically, COVID speeded that whole process up where we had the opportunity on the short term leases to immediately cancel that and then onboard in the others whilst in most territories we're working from home. But at least that whole thing is now going on. And finally, there's a big project going on also on compensation and benefits that if people talk to each other by having a cup of coffee that we are aligned and not that one has this and the other has something else or different parameters for their bonus schemes, if any, or these kind of things.

So we're more and more unifying that. And I think so Martin also said that in early twenty twenty one, we will have a, let's say, further investigation or maybe also finalization of a unified brand.

Speaker 6

That's really clear. Thank you very much.

Speaker 4

There are currently no further questions Can in the I

Speaker 1

please pass

Speaker 4

it back to you for any closing comments at this stage?

Speaker 2

Thanks, Fraser. Thank you, everybody. I apologize again for a slight delay at the beginning, but glad you could make it. Any further questions to Peter or myself or Scott at SOR Capital. And we look forward to seeing you in the New Year with our annual results.

Stay well and stay safe. Thank you.

Speaker 4

This now concludes our call. Thank you all very much for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.

Powered by