Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for the presentation of Serco's 2024 full-year results, both to the people who have joined us here in person at RBC, as well as the participants who have joined us via the live stream. I'm Mark Irwin, the Serco Group Chief Executive. I'm joined today by our Group Chief Financial Officer, Nigel Crossley, and Anthony Kirby, who currently leads our U.K. and Europe division, and, as we announced in January, has been appointed by the Serco Board as my successor to lead the Group from the 1st of March. I would also like to acknowledge two members of our Serco Board who have joined us today: our Chairman, John Rishton, and the Chair of the Board Risk Committee, Ian El-Mokadem.
In terms of our agenda, I will provide an overview of our 2024 performance and an update on the execution of our Enterprise Growth Strategy. Nigel will take you through the detailed financials for the operating period before handing to Anthony, who will cover progress in our U.K. and Europe division. We will then wrap up the presentation part of the agenda and move to Q&A. Our 2024 results reflect another strong year of operational and financial performance across the Group and continued progress against our long-term strategy. As reported in our pre-close trading update, we accelerated trading momentum through the second half of 2024. This allowed us to achieve full-year revenue in line with our guidance, deliver a 30% increase in second-half profitability when compared to the same period in the prior year, and an increase of 10% overall in our underlying operating profit on a full-year basis.
We delivered a meaningful improvement in margins, which has taken us well into the 5%-6% target range we set, and we've had a very strong close for cash for the year. This strong financial performance enabled us to deliver on every element of our capital allocation framework, which Nigel will speak to in more detail shortly. These results are the consequence of driving execution through getting below the headlines to optimize our portfolio performance. It's by growing beyond the year, by developing and converting a high-quality pipeline, and by being deliberate in the allocation of resources and capital for the benefit of the enterprise.
Our people strategy to ensure that we have the right people in the right place doing the right thing has seen vacancy rates down 62% over the past two years, and we've maintained the trust of our customers through credible and consistent operational delivery while keeping our colleagues safer. We achieved a 22% reduction in lost time injuries, resulting in 4,459 fewer lost working days last year alone. From the mobilization of our health assessment services contract in the U.K. through to the rapid deployment of a number of new fire and rescue contracts in the Middle East to meet growing demand in the region, our operational approach has been to mobilize, stabilize, and then optimize in order to strengthen our customer relationships and support the continued strong retention rates in the business. Our retention in our two largest geographies last year was more than 95%.
By way of example, one key rebirth to call out is the $200 million Veterans Transition Program, which, following the successful award in September, has already increased in scope and value as the customer recognized that we can bring better outcomes to an increased number of veterans in the U.S. A focus on in-contract productivity and efficiency has delivered a 60 basis points improvement in margins, and we continue to explore ways for technology to work to support the effectiveness of our processes and the productivity of our colleagues. On growth, we entered the year with a robust pipeline of new business opportunities and a clear focus on conversion. We built momentum as we went through the year with an improving trend in both organic revenue and strengthened order intake.
Despite the disappointing outcome of the Australian Immigration Rebid, we ended the year with GBP 4.9 billion of order intake, over 40% of which came from our U.S. business. The book-to-bill of 82%, which we reported at the end of the first half, improved to 102% on a full-year basis. And our order book now sits at above GBP 13 billion, excluding U.S. extensions and our share of joint venture revenues. And we ended the year with a decade-high pipeline of good quality opportunities to fuel ongoing growth. We continue to actively manage our portfolio, both in terms of underlying performance as well as across the world, to ensure that the prioritization and resources of capital go to higher growth, higher value areas. As we continue to see, including in recent days, geopolitical risk is driving governments across the world to significantly increase investment in defense and national security.
The two areas have been prioritized in our portfolio to look at where we can grow in defense services, and geographically, a very clear focus on North America, and we've already begun to see the benefits of aligning this prioritization to our pipeline and our acquisition activity. With 40% of the order intake coming from the defense sector, we expect our defense services business to be around GBP 2 billion of the Group's revenue by the end of this year, and we continue to see more demand from long-term structural drivers. More broadly, we believe the U.S., as a geographic market, continues to offer significant opportunity for profitable growth. In recent years, we've doubled the revenue and tripled the profit of our U.S. business to a $2 billion portfolio, delivering 10% margins, and we estimate that we still only have just over 1% market share.
We therefore believe that there is further opportunity at a time when the U.S. government clearly has a renewed emphasis on increasing government efficiency. I'd like to spend just a few minutes to touch on the program we've been executing for organic growth in relation to people services in the defense sector. Serco has a track record of training the next generation Australian Navy officers at HMAS Watson, of providing on-base clinical workforce to the Australian Defence Force, of providing psychological support services to the U.S. Navy Bureau of Medicine and Surgery, of supporting thousands of U.S. military veterans as they transition back to civilian life, of delivering flying training support to the Royal Navy Air Stations, Yeovilton and Culdrose, so we are building on this long-standing support for the military by broadening our capabilities in the services which we believe are mission-focused, tech-led, and people-enabled.
This value proposition has supported the win of H2F, which we announced in January, a $250 million contract to support 45 US Army brigades to enhance physical and non-physical performance. And our mission to bring together the right people, the right technology, and the right partners was crucial to the recently announced award of more than GBP 1 billion for the U.K. Armed Forces Recruitment Service contract. The technology stack that sits behind this cutting-edge contract demonstrates our increased confidence with digital and technology-based solutioning to deliver, in this case, a candidate-led, data-driven, and cost-effective service in partnership with the MOD. And as mentioned, we see targeted and disciplined M&A as an important part of our overall growth strategy.
The $327 million acquisition of Northrop Grumman's Mission Training and Satellite Ground Systems business is expected to complete around mid-2025 and will further strengthen our position in military training and ground satellite markets. The deal is near-term accretive from a value perspective and, over the medium term, increases our growth potential in both our U.S. platform as well as our international defense sector. To give you a sense of the asset, I'll briefly touch on two key contracts in the MT&S portfolio. The first is DMON. This recently awarded 10-year contract has a ceiling value of $800 million, and through this, we will own, operate, and maintain the network across more than 100 U.S. Air Force sites, enabling multiple aircraft simulation platforms and locations to conduct training and mission readiness exercises simultaneously without incurring the cost of actual flight hours.
The second contract is the Mission Command Training Program, which delivers a combination of live, virtual, and constructive training to U.S. Army commanders. MCTP simulates combat environments for advanced tactics, testing, and training in an operationally and economically efficient delivery model. The MT&S portfolio is around 40% Army, about 30% Air Force, and 10% U.S. Space Force, building on the already strong position we have with the U.S. Navy. Now, I spoke earlier this year at our half-year results about the key capability areas that we are building in our defense portfolio. And as you can see, the recent organic wins, as well as the MT&S acquisition, reinforces our position across the strategic areas that we've been focusing on.
Just before I leave this slide, I wanted to highlight that it's not just about adding more capability, but leveraging synergy across capability areas, as we have done, for example, by applying next-generation technologies to our naval design capability. Working with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, DARPA, Serco's next-gen design is a first-in-class, long-endurance, medium unmanned surface vessel, which will allow the ship to operate at sea fully unmanned for a 12-month period. I had the opportunity in Seattle last week to do a walkthrough of Defiant just ahead of her sea trials coming up in a few weeks.
Everything from the pioneering automated ATSI refueling system to DSX, which is a platform through which we can generate millions of potential designs of alternate capability sets to meet mission and performance requirements, tells us that this is not a shipbuilding program that uses technology, but a technology program that has delivered a ship with improved endurance, flexible mission payloads, and reduced cost per hour to operate. I'm confident that this focused, deliberate approach to targeting attractive, high-value sectors and markets will continue to see Serco succeed. More broadly, we continue to believe that the structural drivers of demand continue to create intense pressures on government to partner with the private sector for support. We've talked previously about the four forces that drive demand. We believe that these are further bolstered by new and evolving challenges.
Hastened by deglobalization and ongoing conflicts, managing geopolitical risk not only encourages defense spending, but creates a broader need for wider resilience and enhanced sovereign capability. We know the global race for talent continues, and the enduring technological revolution, now accelerated by the rapid development of AI, has not left public services untouched. Our value proposition to help governments to do more and better with less is arguably stronger today than it's ever been. So we believe that with an addressable market of around GBP 870 billion in the areas where we have capability and in our four geographies, there remains plenty of opportunity for us to grow. I'd like to conclude my comments this morning with this slide, which shows that the last five years have been transformational for Serco, for our shareholders, and for our colleagues. Over the period, the business has delivered 8.4% growth CAGR.
More than doubled our pipeline for future growth. Our profit has increased from GBP 120 million to GBP 274 million. And importantly, we've converted that profit to cash and generated over GBP 1 billion of free cash flow. I'm incredibly proud of what we've achieved. It's been a privilege for me to be a part of the team that's taken this business through its turnaround under Rupert's leadership, and then to go on myself to lead the Group in recent years to its next phase of growth. I'm confident that the platform that we've created will mean that the next five years will be equally strong in terms of its performance under Anthony's leadership. And with that, I will now hand over to Nigel to take us through the detail of our 2024 financials.
Thank you, Mark, and good morning to everybody. I'll start off with an overview of the Group's financial performance in 2024. And Mark's already covered the highlights of these strong results. However, there are a few points I'd like to pull out. And the first relates to the strong performance we delivered in the second half of the year, when the underlying operating profit increased by 30% compared to the same period in 2023. And the second half free cash flow was GBP 150 million, and the order intake was GBP 3 billion. And while organic revenue growth for the full year was minus 3%, this does not tell the full story. Organic growth was flat in the second half, offsetting a 5% headwind from expected lower volumes on the U.K. immigration contract. And this was also an improvement from the 5% decline we saw in the first half of the year.
The second point relates to the European immigration business, EHC, that we acquired earlier this year, and that has performed strongly. And while revenues are broadly in line with our expectations, the profitability of the contracts has been stronger. And in the last three years, through a combination of organic and inorganic growth, the European business has grown from around GBP 100 million in 2021 to over GBP 500 million last year. And the EHC acquisition has established a strong base in Germany for future organic growth. And then finally, on this slide, underlying operating profit margin improved by 60 basis points in 2024. And encouragingly, this is high-quality margin performance, as it's all been derived from gross profit.
And this has been achieved through a combination of improvements on underperforming contracts, increased contract productivity, agreeing new terms with customers, and on-contract organic revenue growth, offsetting some higher in-year mobilization costs. And pleasingly, we've seen these margins improve in all four of our divisions, which reflects the efficiency and productivity program of work that we kicked off this year. And we are confident there are further opportunities to improve the efficiency and productivity of our business. So going through the divisional performance reviews, I'm going to start with North America. And for the full year, organic revenue was up 1% from new business wins, offsetting the impact of exiting several lower margin contracts and the reduced CMS revenues. In the second half of the year, we've seen a step up in revenue, reporting organic growth of 5%, with the defense business leading the way on growth.
Underlying operating profit margin was 10.3%, up slightly on last year, which is particularly pleasing in light of this including the first full year of new terms for both the CMS and the FEMA contracts. This margin has been achieved by improving contract performance and productivity, as well as delivering efficiency in the indirect cost base. Order intake for the full year was GBP 2.2 billion, which has delivered a very strong book-to-bill outturn. Over half of that order intake was for new business, with the defense accounting for the majority of the new wins. Equally important for growth is the retention of existing business, which was very strong with rebid win rates at 96%. The order intake, coupled with the second half revenue growth, provides good momentum as we move into 2025.
The order intake of GBP 1.4 billion in the second half of the year has resulted in a smaller pipeline than was reported in June. This, however, remains a healthy GBP 2.1 billion of new business opportunities, with three-quarters of those opportunities in defense. Towards the middle of the year, the pipeline will be supplemented further by the acquisition of MT&S, whose capabilities will broaden the range of new business opportunities we can bid for. Next up, Anthony is going to take us through a deeper dive on the U.K. and Europe business. I will not dwell on this slide other than just to point out we've had a good year and made particularly good progress with 100 basis points of improvement on profit margin in the U.K. and EU in 2024. Moving on to Asia-Pacific.
As you'll all be aware, we lost the immigration rebid at the end of last year, which was significant for this region. That said, we remain confident that we have a good base business in the region that can be further developed. We are pleased with the progress made towards a turnaround during 2024, the first full year under new management. There's been material improvement in some underperforming contracts, and we have worked to right-size the cost structure of the organization, and while there's further work to do in 2025 and to build out the pipeline of new business opportunities, which we always knew that this part of the recovery would have the longest lead time to return to long-term profitable growth. The loss of the immigration business did, however, require us to revisit our balance sheet valuation of goodwill.
While we have plans to further improve the performance of the business, to be compliant with accounting standards, we cannot take credit for these future plans. Consequently, for accounting purposes only, we have booked a non-cash exceptional impairment charge of GBP 115 million against the Asia-Pacific goodwill asset. Encouragingly, in the second half of the year, organic revenue grew 6%, largely from higher volumes on our defense health services contract. Profit has increased around 50% as the transformation and cost-saving investments we made in the first half year delivered benefits in the second half of the year. Exiting 2024, our pipeline for new work stands at GBP 1.7 billion, which includes GBP 1 billion relating to defense-based services. We'll continue to qualify and bid for new business opportunities, and we expect to have a higher quality pipeline by the end of 2025.
Turn to the Middle East region, which has revenues down 2% on a constant currency basis due to the loss of some lower margin contracts and reduced scope of work on a defense contract due to Australian step-down in presence in the Middle East. This was partially offset by some good wins in transport relating to fire and rescue services. Margin improved 65 basis points due to the exit of lower margin work and a good focus on efficiency and productivity. And there's a strong pipeline of new opportunities that stands at GBP 1 billion, up 25% on last year. And these are spread between larger service contracts, predominantly in the UAE, and some smaller, more advisory opportunities in KSA.
Moving now on to cash flow, and cash generation in the year was very strong, continuing our trend of the last five years, where on average we've been converting over 100% of our trading profit into cash. This has been achieved through disciplined processes to produce timely and accurate sales invoices that enable customers to pay us promptly. Since 2019, we've reduced the number of days sales outstanding by around 20 days, which has contributed to GBP 250 million of improved cash through lower receivables on the balance sheet. Adjusted net debt at the end of the year is marginally lower than the previous year at GBP 100 million. This is after completing a GBP 140 million share buyback program and closing the EHC and Climatize acquisitions during the year.
Overall, this has resulted in the Group's leverage at the year-end being 0.3x EBITDA, which is well below our target range of 1-2x EBITDA. We did announce the agreement in January to acquire the MT&S business from Northrop Grumman for $327 million, and our leverage on a pro forma basis, including the acquisition, increases to 1.2x EBITDA. This is still at the lower end of our target leverage range and leaves us with a strong balance sheet and the capacity to make further investments in 2025, so on that note, we'll turn on to capital allocation, and in 2024, we delivered against all four of our capital allocation priorities, enabled by strong cash flows and a strong balance sheet. Our first and most important priority is to invest in organic growth.
During the year, we've invested in our capacity to build and execute the largest pipeline of new business opportunities in more than a decade, as well as mobilizing some large new contracts in the U.K.. Regarding our second priority, today we announced our final dividend for 2024, which resulted in a full-year dividend of GBP 0.0416 per share, which is a 22% increase on last year. Relating to our third priority, M&A, we closed the acquisitions of European Homecare and Climatize business in the Middle East in early 2024. In addition, as Mark has already referenced, we are excited to have announced the acquisition of MT&S. All these acquisitions bring new capabilities and access to new customers and markets, which will provide opportunities for increased organic growth in the future.
Our final capital priority is to return surplus capital to shareholders promptly, which we executed in 2024 with a share buyback of GBP 140 million. During the last four years, we've returned GBP 340 million of surplus capital to investors in the form of share buybacks. We've defined surplus capital being when leverage is below one times EBITDA. At the end of 2024, our leverage on a pro forma basis, including the acquisition of MT&S, is 1.2x EBITDA. Although we're not currently in a position of surplus capital, we are only modestly above the threshold and have established a track record of strong cash flow reducing our leverage. We will review our capital priorities at the half year. Finally, turning to guidance, which is a strong outlook in the light of known revenue and cost headwinds.
Our guidance for 2025 is largely unchanged from the pre-close statement. The outlook for 2025 anticipates revenue will be similar to 2024, with underlying organic growth of 7% driven by the stronger offsetting 7% revenue reduction from the U.K. and Australian immigration contracts. Underlying operating profit will reduce only slightly, despite previously advised cost pressures, including the increase in U.K. National Insurance and the effect of the Australian and U.K. immigration contracts, mostly offset by our continued effort to improve efficiency and productivity across the portfolio and profits from new business and ramp-ups of businesses mobilized in 2024. We expect cash flow to be in line with our medium-term goal to have at least 80% of profit converted to cash, and this will be achieved after a number of years of exceptional cash conversion.
Today, we've updated our guidance for net debt for the end of 2025, reflecting our cash flow at the end of 2024 and the corresponding balance sheet closing stronger than we had anticipated. We now expect net debt at the end of 2025 to be just £10 million and an improvement of £50 million on the previous guidance. The guidance for this slide does not include the impact of the acquisition of MT&S. Once we know the closing date for the transaction, which we expect to be around the middle of the year, we will update our guidance to include a part year of MT&S's financials. -On that note, I'll now hand over to Anthony.
Nigel, thank you and good morning, everybody.
I'm delighted to be here as the next Chief Executive of what I think is one of the best companies in the world, one that I'm proud to have been part of for over seven years, most notably as the Group Chief Operating Officer, where I worked with my colleagues around the world, and latterly, and until Saturday, as the U.K. and Europe CEO running what is the biggest part of the organization. Over the next few slides, I want to talk about the progress that my team have made over the last two and a half years across the geographies that we lead here in the U.K. and the very exciting and rapidly growing European business. In 2024, revenue was stable around GBP 2.4 billion, representing around half of the Group's revenues, following a 16% growth in FY 2023.
This followed the exit of some contracts in 2023 that were less strategically important in our portfolio, several of which had margins below the level that we see as appropriate for the work that we were doing, and you can clearly see that these playing out in terms of exits in the revenue change across our transport, health and FM, and citizen services businesses over the last two years. The small organic decline we saw from those exits was offset, as Nigel said, by the strong trading from our European Homecare business, which we acquired at the end of Q1 last year and is a leading provider of immigration services across many states in Germany. Justice and immigration as a sector saw growth for the second year running, as did our defense business.
Both sectors are and will remain central to the division and the Group strategy moving forward and our medium-term success. Year on year, we grew operating profits by 22% to GBP 148 million in 2024, building on an increase of 68% in FY 2023. And this growth was also reflected in our margin, with a 280 basis point improvement since 2022, taking our overall margin to 6% in 2024. This profit growth has been driven by significant on-contract operational and margin improvement and the increase from our acquisitions in our European business. It also absorbed some significant mobilization costs relating to what was a challenging ramp-up of electronic monitoring. We did deliver GBP 1.9 billion of order intake this year, and I'm particularly proud of our 98% customer retention rate, the best it's ever been in our U.K. and Europe business.
Our business win rate, though, was softer than I would have liked, although this was in part due to some decisions being delayed due to the period following the run-up to and following the U.K. general election, but we are already seeing some of those decisions land early in 2025, most notably, as Mark was proud to mention, the Armed Forces Recruitment Service contract valued at GBP 1 billion, raising to GBP 1.5 billion if all extension periods are exercised. We also won a new contract to provide technical solutions and Earth observation support to the European Space Agency, as well as the flagship contract to continue to operate the Cabinet Office's U.K. Emergency Planning College here in the U.K. Even following the AFRS bid, when our pipeline looked very strong, still at around GBP 5 billion, and is critically aligned to our growth-focused sectors moving forward.
As you know, our financial performance is an outcome of the inputs that 34,000 great people in my team put in day in, day out, 24/7, 365 days of the year. So when Mark, myself, and the rest of the Group executive team refreshed the strategy, I was absolutely clear that we were needed to be focused on fewer but better quality capabilities in the most attractive markets. This is an area where we've made good progress over the last couple of years, rebuilding our pipeline, now better weighted to where we see stronger capabilities and where we have a greater right to win. This clarity has been coupled with a deliberate plan for execution that's focused on operational excellence, competitiveness, and growth, which have all contributed to our performance. We want those three priorities to be mutually reinforcing.
So operational excellence builds the trust that wins us new business with our current and future new customers. Competitiveness underpins our ability to win and create the headroom we need to invest in our people, technology, and future capabilities. And growth fuels the investment in operational excellence and innovation. So a virtuous circle, if you will. In terms of operational excellence, it is absolutely at our core. It's delivering the best possible outcomes for our customers, our colleagues, and the communities where we work. And you can see how that's been reflected in our performance. Over the last few years, we've mobilized some very deeply complex operations with some excellent outcomes.
A couple of examples just to share is the HMP Fosse Way prison, which we brought online ahead of time to help our customer relieve pressure in the prison estate, and our health assessment contract supporting our DWP customer has seen us welcome around 1,000 colleagues to that new service, delivering over 140,000 assessments since we mobilized that contract in September last year. Through innovation and global best practice sharing, we've driven efficiency and improved our margins. As an example, our health and facilities management business, where the team have improved the margin from 1.5% at the end of 2022 to 4.5% at the end of 2024, largely driven through a disciplined focus on operational excellence. First and foremost, we've done this with the safety of our colleagues at the forefront of our mind.
That's a personal passion that Mark and I share and one which we will continue to work on. Competitiveness. When I talk about competitiveness, what I'm really talking about is a business with one of the most competitive cost bases in the sectors where we choose to operate, but importantly, complemented by leading-edge systems, agile processes, which really do increase our win and retention rates with our customers. Over the last few years, myself and the team have taken targeted and deliberate action to improve those outcomes. Over the period, we've removed duplication where we could, we've increased automation, and we've addressed some unproductive costs across the organization, allowing investment into the things that really matter to help improve growth and our improvement in our IT solutions. I'm very clear that there is still more to do.
In 2023, we launched our contract margin improvement plans, driving marginal enhancement gains across the organization, combining in around a GBP 15 million benefit to the organization, things like better procurement, enhanced commercial negotiations, and the removal of waste from some processes. Likewise, really strong cash generation is an important component of our business. And I'm pleased that the division has been able to contribute so significantly to the Group's performance year on year, as you can see on the screen there. And then growth in the last two years, we have focused on strengthening our base. We have seen, as I said earlier, a contract retention rate of 98%, resecuring some very important strategic contract capabilities for us.
In 2024, the most notable of some of those contract extensions was our Restart program with the DWP, where it's around GBP 160 million of revenue, a two-year extension on the NorthLink Ferries, which is a lifeline that connects the Northern Isles, and the retention of HMP Ashfield, a GBP 200 million 10-year contract extension. Our joint ventures can sometimes often remain in the shadows, but I'm exceptionally proud of the performance we've seen since 2022, with a 111% improvement in revenue growth across our JV portfolio, and finally, on growth, just turning to our European business. Five years ago, Nigel mentioned our business comprised of around 900 people, delivering a revenue of just over GBP 100 million. At the end of 2024, our revenues was around GBP 540 million, with a workforce of over 5,000.
We've grown that business both organically and inorganically, very deliberately, to be able to build our capabilities across our European countries. Europe is another example of where we have invested deliberately to build platforms for future growth, one of which being immigration. We've operated U.K. immigration now for many years, supporting governments to deliver challenging services to individuals at the most vulnerable parts of their lives. The structural drivers for immigration and migration are clear. From climate change to geopolitical uncertainty, there will be and probably remain for many decades to come high levels of migration in certain parts of the world. This is particularly difficult for governments at a time when fiscal pressures are high. We now have a genuine international immigration platform across our division.
Our scale, expertise, and capability afford us the opportunity to grow in the large markets where we already have a presence, identify adjacencies where we have the capability, and expand to work with other governments who are faced with similar challenges around the world. So that was just a quick update on the work that my team have been doing over the last two and a half years across the U.K. and Europe. And for all of their contributions and commitment, I am and will remain incredibly grateful. So just turning to the Global Business for a moment. As we all know, and Mark alluded to earlier, we are living in a time where geopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate and value for money is at the forefront of our customers' minds. We do and will continue to operate in sectors that support governments during these difficult and uncertain times.
We have a resilient international platform with a good strategy that's working, customers that we know with long-term contracts, and less churn expected in the coming years. Typically, we operate in critical, non-discretionary sectors that governments globally will continue to prioritize despite the pressures they face. And when our customers are seeking efficiency and value for money, I do, as the rest of the executive team feel, we are superbly placed to help them. Our capabilities continue to improve, and we're investing in technical infrastructure and AI developments as we seek to bring that innovation to our bids. As Mark and Nigel have noted, we have entered 2025 with strong momentum following a very strong end to 2024 in the second half.
So this, combined with getting out of the blocks early in the year with our agreement to acquire MT&S in the U.S., the important and very proud appointment of us to the AFRS program here in the U.K., as well as a strong pipeline aligned to our capabilities, gives me the confidence that this business is on a sound footing and has everything to play for in 2025, as demonstrated by our guidance. I really do believe that Serco is one of the best businesses in the world, and my job and that of my team moving forward is to continue to prove that by maintaining strong financial performance, superb operational delivery, and ensuring that our colleagues are safer and more engaged than ever before.
Well, finally, before I move to questions and answers, I'd just like to take this opportunity on behalf of the entire board, the chairman, and everybody else at Serco to thank Mark for his leadership, his contribution over the past 12 years, and significantly, and particularly his time during the last two and a half years being the Group Chief Executive. So Mark, thank you on behalf of everybody here at Serco. I look forward to talking to you all later in the year. But for now, I think we're going to move to questions and answers, and Nigel is going to chair that for us. Thank you, Nigel.
Thank you. So thanks for your questions. Why don't we start at this side of the room to make sure I don't miss it? So I'm going to start with you, David. Yeah? And there's a mic coming.
Great. Thank you. So it's David Brockton from Deutsche Numis. And actually, just to follow on what Anthony said, I think probably on behalf of all the analysts as well, thank you, Mark, for your service and contribution to the turnaround and success of Serco. My first question relates to the balance sheet and acquisition pipeline. The balance sheet is clearly in a very strong position today, even after the acquisition of MT&S that you're hopefully going to complete through the first half of this year. Can you just touch on what the acquisition pipeline looks like and how we should expect sort of regularity of purchases going forwards? That's the first question.
And then the second question, partly related to it, I guess, is when we look at the North American portfolio, there's clearly a very strong defense business, but there are two sectors where there isn't a presence relative to some of the other parts of the business in terms of justice and health as well, and just keen to understand whether that could be an opportunity for the business over the longer term.
Why don't I take certainly the first one on balance sheet? So you're right. Our balance sheet is strong, 1.2x leverage, even after we've done the MT&S deal, and we are a cash-generative business. It's difficult to predict regularity of M&A, but we are still out there looking, and we're looking at opportunities. We are really disciplined, though. We look at an awful lot more things than we end up bidding for. We bid for a lot more stuff than we end up buying. So we keep our discipline on financial returns, really understanding the good strategic fit. And the strategic fit for us is really saying, how do I buy something that gets me access to new markets or new capabilities that means I've got a broader front to grow organically going forward? We've got to find those right opportunities at the right price.
And we look at a lot. When the next one will come along, I don't know. But we are still looking, and we're comfortable with our balance sheet position to be able to do more. As far as North America is concerned, we recognize it's by far the biggest market that we operate in. We are strong in defense, but we've still got a really quite small share, a very small share of the U.S. defense services market. So we know there's more opportunities to grow there. But we are equally interested in looking at non-defense markets. Mark, you've sat on the U.S. board for a couple of years. Anything you'd like?
Yeah, absolutely. So the diversity of the portfolio for us in the U.S. is important, both, as Nigel said, diversifying across defense, but importantly into what we refer to as federal civilian business, which is non-defense business, building on the position that we have with CMS. So we talk about CMS, the contract. CMS, the agency, is one of the largest partners of the private sector in the U.S. government. The department that sits above that, Health and Human Services, equally is an area that we are actively exploring. And then more broadly, we have looked previously at whether there was work that we could do in the immigration area. I think with the policy changes that we now see in the U.S., we will look at that again. But we have a very clear ethical threshold about the type of work that we are willing to do.
So I think it's continuing to balance between identified opportunity from a demand perspective and making sure that that lines up with the ethical framework that we have adhered to in the business and we will continue to do. So yeah, active exploration. There's some early stage work in the pipeline, but that needs to be qualified as we go through 2025.
Sylvia?
Hi, morning, everyone. Sylvia Barker from JP Morgan. Could I ask on two specific areas? One is the U.K. Armed Forces recruitment contract. Could you talk a little bit about how that is structured and how that's different from the old kind of set of contracts that existed and what maybe the technology is behind it? And then secondly, on German immigration, with the change in politics, I guess, in government in Germany, is there any risk to that being any weaker going forward? Or how do you see the sensitivity there to politics? Thank you.
Sylvia, thanks very much for the question. So the Armed Forces Recruitment Service contract is different because this is a tri-service contract now. So typically, the Navy and the Royal Air Force were responsible for recruitment internally as part of the MoD. What's happened now is we've moved to a tri-party, tri-service agreement now moving forward. So significant transformation is going to be required in terms of the recruiting as a whole force military rather than three individual services. And we are the prime contractor for AFRS, but we've partnered with around nine to 10 experts in the field, whether it's recruitment marketing, whether it's recruitment technology, candidate experience, etc. So what we're hoping for is to see the candidate experience be more efficient and productive and therefore able to get people into the military in a more efficient way than typically may have been the case previously.
But you will have seen the numbers of the armed forces have reduced. The Secretary of State has clearly said they want to look at the numbers in the military moving forward. And we feel the volume improvement there is going to be very helpful moving forward. We don't actually start the contract until 2027. So we're not responsible for recruiting people into the military until 2027. Our mobilization contracts start on the 1st of April, and we're very excited to be able to deliver a good service to them.
Political position in Germany. Is what, sorry?
The political situation in Germany. Sorry, Sylvia. I missed the second question. Look, the coalition government is still forming. So it's likely to take us into April, maybe May, until a coalition government forms. Look, we've worked with, and we do work with, over many, many decades, different governments dependent upon their policies. We stand ready to help deliver immigration services into Germany, as well as look to expand our defense capability into Germany as well. So it's not an answer I can give you particularly strong guidance on at the moment until the government's actually formed and the coalition partners are determined who they're likely to be. But we've got a very strong business in Germany, and we intend to grow it.
The only thing I may add to that, Sylvia, is when you look at the range of services that we provide in the immigration sector, from welfare all the way through to enforcement, we feel that we can follow policy shifts and adjust the capability response to that. So as Anthony said, the challenge for Germany, balancing the need for 500,000 workers each year with making sure it's the right people entering and staying in the country and across that policy spectrum, we've demonstrated in various jurisdictions the ability to respond. So I think Anthony's exactly right. We have to wait to see what exactly the position is and then be ready to go from there.
Thank you.
James?
Hi. It's James Rose from Barclays. I've got two, please. The first is on the US DOGE, aiming to cut hundreds of billions of spend from government. Is that something Serco shareholders should be concerned about? What are the threats or indeed opportunities from that? And then secondly, on cash conversion, I think it's been over 100% or has averaged 100% for six years now versus guidance of 80%. Is 80% the right figure going forward? Is 90%? Is 100%? Appreciate your thoughts on that.
Yep. Mark, do you want to take the question on DOGE?
Thank you, Nigel. I think the right place to start, James, as you said, is DOGE has brought about uncertainty, particularly for the investor community, because it's new, because it's evolving day by day, and because I think nobody has real certainty about what exactly it may end up doing. What we have observed, though, is unlike previous U.S. federal government initiatives like the Budget Control Act that was brought in by the Obama administration in 2011 or sequestration, where there's across the board quite arbitrary cuts in spending. This clearly is focused on efficiency, on making government more efficient, on addressing waste, on addressing fraud, on creating more competition within the government contracting domain, and so we see all of those being areas where we can actually play as a contributor to those efficiency outcomes.
And so we are mindful that this is continually evolving, but we are, in fact, positive about the potential opportunity for us to be a part of the solution that DOGE is trying to address in terms of government efficiency. And we've got real examples. If you look at the recent award by the U.S. government for Serco to help with productivity in U.S. Navy shipyards, they've come to us to help them with an efficiency initiative. The work that we've done on the CMS contract, where at the beginning of the previous term, we had 4,500 people processing affordable care applications. That's about 1/3 of the workforce now doing a significantly higher number of processing and application through the use of technology.
And so I think we've got a track record of showing how we can do this, and we can look to leverage that, I think, to afford ourselves more opportunity going forward.
On cash conversion, you're right. Six years, we've averaged over 100% cash conversion. I said in my presentation, it's largely come from improving our processes for getting accurate and timely sales invoices out. We've pushed that hard and really appreciate the progress we've made. I think we'll keep pushing that, but I think we're going towards diminishing returns now. We've already taken GBP 250 million off the balance sheet. If I look then going forward, why is 80% the right cash conversion? We are a very capital-light model, so I think we should have a high profit-to-cash conversion. Actually, the biggest capital we have is working capital to grow our top line. When I look at that, we should be able to average over 80% going forward. That feels like the right structure for me.
So we're confident with that still being the right level to be aiming for. And I think we have to look at the last six years as being exceptional because of the program of work we've been on.
Great. Thank you.
I can't see it. It's Arthur.
Hi, there. Arthur from Citi. So three from me, if I can. So first one, please. You've obviously done really well in the U.S. defense business. Obviously, in the last few days and weeks, we've heard a lot about how European defense spending's likely to go up. So keen to hear about how you can leverage all the capability you've developed in the U.S. into that. Second question, U.K. margin is around 6% now, which I think is the upper end of your sort of historical guidance range. Obviously, you've had some costs of mobilization in 2024. But where do you think you can go to in terms of margin in a sort of very optimistic scenario? How good could that be? And then third one, obviously, U.K. migration is very important for you.
I just wondered, how are you getting on in terms of people moving from hotels to rentals? And what should we expect for this year? And also on volumes, what are we seeing at this point? And what's embedded in your guidance? Thank you.
Okay. Let me take the first one on margin. And we've had medium-term guidance out there for the last three or four years. So we'd expect our margin to be 5%-6%. Remember, when we said that, we were not in that range. So we've got ourselves into that range and comfortably in that range. We're really pleased with the progress we've made on efficiency and productivity. We think there is more opportunity there. And we also know as we grow faster in the U.S. market, both inorganically and organically, the weighted average of our margin will go up. And I think we still think that 5%-6% is the right range. But I think Anthony and I would like to go around the markets and really think about what is the right target for us.
When there's something else to say, we will say something on that. I'm going to give the next two questions to Anthony. Just to remind you what we've said on U.K. immigration, we were expecting a headwind of about GBP 150 million in 2024 and similar in 2025 as we have a normalization of service users coming out of hotels and going into dispersed accommodation. That's what we have set as guidance, Anthony. Do you want to add some more color to that?
Yeah.
The European defense.
Yeah. Arthur, thanks very much for the question. As Nigel said, our outcomes in 2024 reflected in the numbers, and our forecast in 2025 are reflected in the numbers as well. So we're expecting the mix to change. We're expecting the volumes to decrease slightly, but we're expecting the mix between hotels and dispersed accommodation to change. Just remind everybody we're one of three providers. So the customer being the Home Office, dispersed service users across the country. We're not seeing any of our volumes decrease significantly in the overall number, but the mix of the numbers have changed. But the service users are probably down from last year. Hotels was around 100, just over 100. We're just under 70 at the moment, so those hotels are reducing. Customer clearly has an expectation that those numbers will continue to reduce.
Our teams are expertly placed to work with a number of local authorities around the country to help them achieve that. But as Nigel said, those headwinds we're seeing in 2024 will continue in 2025, but they're in the numbers. In terms of European defense, one of the good things when we were reviewing the acquisition of MT&S was the capability to take some of those services internationally. We're very excited about what MT&S can bring to the defense market internationally, particularly in the U.K. and across Europe. And look, where we can export collaboration expertise out of the U.S., we do that already. We're starting to do that. So we're getting some expertise out of the U.S. But we obviously have to be mindful that we operate under the SSA arrangements in the U.S. So we're moving those collaborations around.
We've got another collaboration, actually important to note, between the U.S. and the Middle East currently ongoing as well in terms of defense collaboration.
Thank you very much.
Thanks, sir.
Thank you. Alex Smith from Berenberg. Just want to follow up on that U.K. margin point and where it's at 6% today and with the National Insurance kind of headwind coming into for year 2025, just how renegotiations are going. Do you expect there to be some pressure on that 6% number in for year 2025? And a bit more color on that would be helpful. And then just also on the APAC turnaround and the outlook for 2025, the upcoming Australian election and any views on that would also be great. Thanks.
Can we take the National Insurance one then?
Yep, so again, thanks very much for the question. I think we are assuming that we get no benefit from the negotiations with the customers, and we've got those built into our 2025 forecasts. We are continuing to have conversations where we can, but look, we've had to assume that we're not going to get recovery for those beyond where we are contractually entitled to that recovery. And I think one of the important things I would note, though, is that where we renegotiate our contracts and where our contracts come up for renewal, we will reprice the contracts to include the increase in National Insurance. So this is not going to be a forever issue here. When the contracts come up for renegotiation, we will price them accordingly, as will the rest of the market, and we're seeing that at the moment.
But overall, we think there are some flexible margins, but there's also some opportunities. So around that range, we are comfortable with for the U.K.. And you talked about Australia.
Yeah. So we've seen both sort of the cycle of state elections and, as you said, in the next, Alex, the next month or so, most likely the Prime Minister will call for the federal election as well. What do we see in terms of market dynamics? The first term of the Albanese government has seen the public service grow by 30,000. And that's become part of the conversation leading into the election as to whether that investment in the growth of the public service has actually delivered better outcomes in service delivery as a key election issue. And I think that, along with the fact that the budget surpluses, which has been enjoyed during this first term, now reducing materially will put pressure on either side of politics to revisit whether that is the right thing to continue to do.
I think the other big factor in the market in Australia in particular will be the pivot to refocus on the Indo-Pac region geopolitically. We know the AUKUS pact is critical to that. And we know with certainty, based on the work that we currently do for the US Navy, being embedded fully in the US Navy submarine program, that we've got transferable capability where there is critical need in Australia for us to be able to apply that. And AUKUS goes beyond just the submarines, which is always front and center in that conversation. Australia has been a non-nuclear country for its entire history. The ability to respond to that is about the submarines. It's about the infrastructure. It's about the supply chain. It's about sustainment. It's about nuclear medicine.
There is a whole range of associated services that goes along with something like AUKUS that we think we've got international capability that we can leverage and respond to support the development of that pipeline that Nigel mentioned before. And the third area is infrastructure. Andrew Head, who leads that business, has a 20-year history in infrastructure management. It's not a part of the market that we've looked at before in terms of integrated asset management and certainly something that we are exploring at the moment. So we see pathways here for us to redevelop pipeline and regrow that business again.
Thank you.
Well done, Dan. Chris?
Morning, Chris Bamberry, Peel Hunt. A couple of questions, please. Just to kind of follow up on the Australian business, where are you in terms of reductions in overheads and vacancies? And secondly, looking at the pipeline for this year, obviously, the Base Services contracts are very important. I mean, how big a delta is that in kind of on the timing, etc., getting back on track there? That'd be the first question. Thanks.
Okay. Let me start off on that. Look, we have made good progress on the cost base, and there was two pieces of the cost base. One was looking at our overheads and how do we right-size that. We've made progress on that through 2024, and you see that in the second half results are much stronger. There is more to do, and we'll do more in 2025. The other area of cost that we really went after, our profit improvement, was we had some underperforming contracts. We've made really good progress on some of those. One in particular, one big one in particular. There's still more to do in that space as well, so I think as far as cost is concerned, we've made good progress. There's further to go, then as far as pipeline is concerned, and Mark's already touched on it, we have Base Services.
That is the majority of that pipeline. We expect to get a decision probably around the middle of the year on that. But our focus at the moment is how do we rebuild that pipeline? And when we look at that Australian market, it is structurally not different from the other markets we operate in. It's not like there's different kinds of contracts or the customers procuring in different ways or there's more competitors. It feels very similar to where we operate elsewhere. So when I look at that, I see no structural reason why we should not be able to get that business back to where it was three or four years ago and back to where the rest of the group is.
And on Base Services, Chris, it's not a binary outcome. It is a multi-service, multi-region submission, and the customer may choose to allocate that to multiple providers. And so we will keenly watch for the outcome of that, as Nigel said, towards the middle of the year.
Second question, just the overall group pipeline, what's the mix between sectors? And big decisions you're expecting this year, obviously, you've touched upon Australian Base Services, but are there potential timing of awards or announcements this year? Thanks.
So we're expecting a pretty busy first half, particularly in the U.K. We've had a really busy second half of 2024. It's like in the U.S. So actually, the U.S. doesn't have a lot of decisions in the first half. They'll have more in the second half. And then our pipeline is split. Defense is the biggest piece. 40-odd% is defense. J&I would be the next biggest piece, just under 30. Customer service has a bit. And then there's smaller pieces in transport and health. And the biggest pipeline by far that we have, over half of it sits in the U.K.
Thank you.
Are there any more questions in the room? Are there any questions on the line? Yes, there are. Do you want to bring those in, please?
Your question from Michael Donnelly with Investec. Please go ahead.
Hello. Can you hear me?
Yes, we're all good.
Right. Just two quick ones from you, please. First of all, can you share with us what you think the proportion of pro forma current year revenues is that have automatic contract inflators built into them? I think historically, we were talking about more than 50%. Is that number still more than 50% or much more or much less or whatever? And then secondly, can you share any feedback you may have had on the loss of the Australian immigration contract so far? Thank you.
Let me take the first one there. I'll ask Mark to give the feedback, Australia immigration. So when we look at our contract portfolio, we're saying yes, you're right, just over half of them have specific indexation clauses in them. So our revenue goes up on an annual basis in line with inflation, but we also have about 1/3 of our portfolio is either cost-plus or it is very short-term contracts. So really, we're pricing real-time costs on those contracts as well. So we get them covered. So we've only got a small proportion of our contract that doesn't have kind of inflation cover, and even those, we will make sure that the terms we have are completely consistent with our supply base.
Also, we've had good experience, particularly as we went through those high inflation years where we had discussions and negotiations with customers. So through the whole of that period, 2021 through 2023, when there was high inflation, we did not see any margin impact from higher inflation. So we know that those mechanics within our contracts are working for us. Mark, do you want to talk about feedback on Aussie immigration?
Yeah. Michael, we've worked quite hard to try and understand this better. And there's still more work for us to do, in part because the customer has really directed focus to the six months of mobilization and transition and been quite opaque about their reason for choosing an alternative provider. What we do know is that it was not driven by price, that the prices were comparable, but that there was a fundamental difference in the proposed operating model between the two providers. Now, what exactly that means, we have to wait to see and understand. But that's what they have told us so far. And we continue to ask questions and try and understand that better.
Thank you. That's really helpful.
And there are no more questions on the line. Okay. Thank you, John. And I've got not.
So if there aren't any questions on the line or here, can I please, on behalf of my colleagues, just say a very big thank you for your time, for your interest in the business, and for the continued support? We appreciate that along with the trust that we continue to get from our customers to do more work and the importance of the contribution of the 50,000 people that make this business what we've delivered today in terms of our full year results. But thank you, everybody, for your time. And we will be around, I think, for a little bit here to answer any questions you'd like to take offline.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Yeah.