Good morning, welcome to the conference call for Tate & Lyle's Q3 trading statement. Your speakers today are Nick Hampton, Chief Executive, and Sarah Kuijlaars, Chief Financial Officer. I will now hand you over to Nick Hampton for some opening remarks.
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining this third 1/4 conference call. I will start by making a few remarks on our performance and strategic progress, and then we'll open it up to Q&A. Trading in the third 1/4 was in line with our expectations and consistent with the first 1/2.
Our guidance for the full year remains unchanged. On a pro forma basis and in constant currency, revenue was 2% lower in the 1/4, reflecting continued muted market demand, with performance in all regions broadly in line with the first 1/2. On a reported basis, which includes CP Kelco from the date of acquisition on the 15th of November 2023, group revenue was 15% higher.
For the 9 months to the 31st of December 2023, on a pro forma basis, revenue in the Americas was 2% lower, with modestly higher pricing more than offset by lower volume. In Europe, Middle East and Africa, lower pricing resulted in 5% lower revenue, while in Asia Pacific revenue was up 1% driven by higher volumes.
Turning to the renewal of customer framework agreements for the 2024 calendar year, which is well advanced. With our number 1 priority returning the business top line growth, we have selectively chosen to invest to drive volume and revenue growth. This is the right thing to do for the business, giving us a stronger platform for future growth. We are pleased with the engagement from customers to our expanded offering.
We are making good progress on the series of actions we set out with our interim results to drive top line growth and improve performance. Let me give you 1 or 2 examples of progress. We continue to accelerate the rollout of our solutions chassis program with a focus on mouthfeel. We launched 2 new mouthfeel chassis in the 1/4, 1 to improve the stability of pourable salad dressings and another to support egg reduction.
The level of customer engagement on our enlarged portfolio remains high, with the value of cross-selling opportunities in our new business pipeline increasing by more than a third in the 1/4. Revenue synergies from the CP Kelco combination are growing in line with our expectations. We remain confident that run rate cost synergies will exceed our target of $50 million by the end of the 2026 financial year.
Finally, our 5-year, $200 million productivity program continues to operate well, with further savings delivered in the 1/4. Overall, I am pleased with the progress we are making. There is a real determination and focus across the business to deliver on the actions we are taking, and I am confident that in the near term they will improve the top line performance of the business.
We will give you more detail of our progress when we announce our full year results in May. At that time, as usual, we will also provide guidance for the 2027 financial year. To conclude, with our leading positions in sweetening mouthfeel and fortification, we remain well placed to benefit from the global trends towards healthier and more nutritious food and drink.
With the breadth of our portfolio, our formulation expertise and the targeted investments we are making to accelerate customer wins in key growth areas, we are well positioned to drive profitable revenue growth over time. With that, Sarah and I would be happy to take any questions.
Thank you, sir. If you wish to ask a question at this time, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. Please make sure the mute function on your phone is switched off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star 2. Again, it is star 1 to ask a question. We will now take our first question from Karel Zoete from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, all. Thanks for taking the question. I've 2 questions. The first 1 is in regards to the price investment you mentioned to sustain volume growth or to improve volume growth. Can you be a bit more specific which markets you decided to invest and then what that might mean for pricing going forward?
The other question is around fibers. I think more and more evidence or discussions in the public domain about fiber being the new protein, et cetera. What kind of engagement do you see with your customers on the fiber ingredients you sell? Thank you.
Okay, Karel. Let me pick up on the fiber question first. I think it's an important 1, and I'll let Sarah handle the selective view on pricing. Look, I mean, fiber clearly is a big global trend. You know, in fact, there was an article yesterday in Bloomberg about fibermaxxing, and we're seeing, you know, very encouraging progress with customers on our fiber portfolio, both products going into market, locally, mostly in the
U.S. market, where, you know, in both beverages and dairy, we're seeing fiber fortification as a trend and increasing their pipeline for fiber is growing. It's a global trend as well, and we're seeing that trend across Europe and Asia too.
you know, I expect that to continue as we think about the continued desire to create more nutritious processed foods, especially in a world where people have a significant shortfall of fiber in their diets. All of the nutritional trends we're seeing point towards Fiber addition is a strong growth opportunity for us going forward.
Thanks, Nick. Karel, good morning. When you think about, you know, our framework agreements, I think it's worth taking a step back. We're all very aware that market demand remains muted. As we've stated, you know, our number 1 priority is to deliver the top line growth, so that's volume and mix driven top line growth.
We've taken the decision to set our business up stronger for the future, is that we're selectively investing to drive that volume momentum and the revenue growth. We always want to think about this as, you know, it would be very selective, so it's by product, by customer, by region to ensure that we're setting ourselves up for that growth given we now have the broader portfolio following the acquisition of CP Kelco.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from Ranulf Orr from Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking the question. Just 1 from me. I mean, you talked a bit in the past about the sort of 4Q improvements. Could you just provide a bit of an update on that? You know, what's going well and where you have visibility on some of those sort of factors coming through? Thank you.
You mean in the 4th 1/4?
Yes. Yeah.
I just wanted to get clarity on the question. Look, so, I mean, I think we're seeing encouraging signs of increased customer engagement on reformulation. It's very clear the sentiments in the market is my customers at least are increasingly thinking about the need to put price back in to drive momentum. But we're not assuming any improvements in market outlook in the 4th 1/4 in our underlying guidance for this financial year.
What we saw in the third 1/4 was, you know, consistent performance from the first 1/2 and very clearly in line with our expectations. So far as we've entered the 4th 1/4, we'd say the same. Always, as you go from Q3 to Q4 across a calendar year, you get some kind of pluses and minuses between December and January from a phasing perspective.
We're seeing the kind of customer demand that we would be expecting given the underlying guidance given for this year.
Okay. That's very clear. Just 1 more, if I may. On the price investments for the year ahead, can you give any kind of quantification or indication of the scale of those, maybe in relation to the current year? Thank you.
Look, I mean, I think we haven't finished yet because we're still closing out the renewal of the agreements for this calendar year. We'll give you a precise view on that when we get to our main results as things have settled down. I think it's fair to say that doing a little bit more this year than we did in this calendar year than we did in the last calendar year to ensure that we're really driving momentum with key customers.
You're obviously offsetting that with real focus on productivity and the benefits of the combination coming through in both cost synergies and the revenue synergies, of course. Let's not forget, this is now the second year of the new business.
This is the first year we're entering as 1 combined business.
Thank you. We'll move to our next question from Joan Lim from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hello. Morning, all. Quite a few of my questions have been asked, but maybe just, could you provide more color on trends by regions and category? Like for example, which category has been doing well or you're seeing more uptake with customers?
You mentioned a bit about fiber. You know, is that more driven by innovation in beverages, for example, and supported by GLP-1 users taking more fiber? My second question is, do you have any indication of how ForEx will be like for the next year? Lastly, maybe an update on CP Kelco's volume and margin recovery, please. Thank you.
Okay. Let me give you some headlines on the overall shape of what we're seeing in the market, and then maybe Sarah can pick up on the ForEx and the CPK question. I mean, overall what we saw in the third 1/4 was quite consistent with the first 1/2. You know, in the Americas we're seeing modestly higher pricing more than offset by lower volume.
That's very consistent with the volume data that we saw in the first 1/2, where you saw volume down and value driven by pricing, which was, you know, in part to pass through the tariffs at the time, as you remember. That's been pretty consistent. In Europe, volume pretty flattish. Volume mix with, you know, the pricing investment driving lower revenue.
In Asia, encouragingly some revenue growth driven by higher volume. Some signs of momentum. I think underlying that though, it is important to say what we're seeing with customers in terms of trends is some clear benefits of the combination flowing through. In the 1/4, the cross-selling pipeline was up over a third, having been strong at the first 1/2. We're seeing double-digit growth in our innovation pipeline to customers.
That's driven by some key themes. As we've already talked on the call, we're clearly seeing a focus on fiber fortification across many categories. Dawn, I think it may well be driven by this need for nutritional density, driven by nutritional needs for processed food and the GLP-1 point you made. We're seeing that especially in beverages and dairy in the U.S.
you know, in EMEA, we're seeing dairy and beverages being more resilient, bakery and snacks a bit softer. In Asia actually, overall robust category performance. We talked about recovery in China at the 1/2 driven by CPK. beyond fiber fortification, the other trends we're seeing is renovation for value, so, you know, cost efficiency and product renovation.
We're also seeing continued focus on sugar reduction and that link to mouthfeel that we talked about at the 1/2 where, you know, as you take sugar out, being able to control the texture and mouthfeel of a product is really important. That's where the combination is really helping us build a stronger pipeline, which we expect to build as we go into next year.
Thanks, Nick. and then, next question is about ForEx. Indeed we saw a headwind given the U.S. in the first nine months, which is approximately 2%-3% of revenue, and that we expect to continue. That is partly offset by the strength in Europe.
Remember with the acquisition of CPK, we now have a broader footprint, so there's also some impact of (uncertain) , et cetera. Overall, you're a headwind in the sort of the 2%-3% on the top line. That's a slightly higher impact on EBITDA given the important contribution from the profitable North American business. Turning to CPK. Clearly the integration continues to go well. Cost synergies well in hand.
As Nick has spoken about now obviously the attention on the pipeline growth of those cross sales. It's been really powerful going into the conversation this year as a combined portfolio, fronting up our, you know, the combined commercial staff really demonstrating the ability and the strengthening capabilities of the portfolio, and the stronger together has been very powerful, good to see.
Very helpful. Thank you.
Our next question is from Seta Sharma from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi. My question is on the selective investments. How should we think about the margin impact of these re-investments as we move into FY25? Are you viewing this as a one-year re-reset to drive volume recovery or a more structural change in pricing intensity?
My second question would be regarding like, to what extent can the ongoing productivity program and CP Kelco cost and revenue synergies can offset the margin impact of these investments? Should we expect net margin pressure or stability as we bridge from FY24 into FY25?
Okay. I would think... Let me start by saying, we'll give very clear guidance on fiscal 2027 when we get to our full year results. We need to complete our planning process for next year and see how trading evolves in 1/4 1 of the calendar year.
The way I think about it is if you think about the building blocks going to next year, we're clearly because of the market demand remaining muted, putting some selective investments into price, to drive the top line, both volume and revenue. Alongside that, we've got clear offsets from productivity delivery and accelerating the benefits of the CP Kelco combination.
Different to last year, we've also got the benefits of the combination flowing through in terms of the pipeline and the cross-selling opportunities to support the framework of renewed renewal. We're confident that that builds a strong platform for growth. Where that leads us to on overall earnings severity and margins, we'll be much clearer about when we get to our full year results.
The key here is the quality of the portfolio to build the growing pipeline of business with customers. As we see markets start to improve and the trends that are, you know, our friend from a positioning of the business perspective, we fully expect to drive profitable growth going forward into the medium term.
We'll give very clear guidance on the nearer term when we get to our annual results.
Thanks for that. Just a follow-up on the fiber thing. Thanks for giving some color on that. Are you seeing a meaningful increase in customer briefs or RSP activity linked to high fiber, high fiber formulations? How does the current pipeline compare with the time last year?
If you think about our pipeline in the last 1/4, it grew double digits overall. That is driven by a focus on things like fiber fortification. I think the question though always is at what pace do those pipeline projects convert into innovation in the market? As you know, we've probably seen, you know, we haven't really seen an increase in innovation pace yet, but we're anticipating that coming as these projects start to flow through.
Nick, maybe I would just add, it's not simply just adding fiber to a product. With fiber, you really need the mouthfeel, and that's really where it plays to our sweet spot because you really need the appealing mouthfeel to for the fortified product to be successful in the market.
Thank you. That's quite helpful. Yeah.
Thank you. We'll now move to our next question from Samantha Darbyshire from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I just kind of want to talk about some of the themes you're seeing in the market longer term. We had a lot of feedback at CAGNY last week about clean label reformulation, including away from artificial sweeteners like sucralose and several emulsifiers, some of which I think are in your portfolio.
What proportion of products are being reformulated this way? Is the increased customer opportunity that you're seeing with CP Kelco's from fortification and protein and fiber, is that enough to offset this headwind? Are you still seeing structural growth in the way that customers are reformulating with your ingredients? Thank you.
Sara, thanks for the question. I mean, all of those trends that we talked about at CAGNY this month actually plays to the reshaping of the portfolio. I think it's important to say that, you know, sucralose clearly is an important part of our portfolio as our artificial sweetener of choice. It's growing in demand.
You know, we're selling every kilo of sucralose that we can make because it's the best tasting artificial sweetener out there. It would be also important to say that if there was a shift away from artificial sweeteners, we've got lots of non-nutritive natural sweeteners in the portfolio. Everything from stevia. We're the only company with a all-America supply chain for stevia, for example, through to monk fruits and allulose.
We're well placed for the reformulation to more natural and clean label. Emulsifiers actually are part of our portfolio. We do a lot of replacements of emulsifiers, and that's where the CP Kelco portfolio comes in as well. All of the trends that we're seeing people talk about are the trends we really believe the combination of our three core platforms can help customers with.
Because that sugar replacement or artificial sweetener replacement we talked about also comes with the need for mouthfeel modulation, as Sara just talked about. The things that we heard from CAGNY are precisely the reason that we repositioned the business the way we have done over the last 5 years.
Thank you.
I'll move to our next question from Matthew Abraham from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Morning, all. Thanks for taking my questions. I just want to relate to the fiber fortification services you touched on. I was just wondering if you can provide a sense of the margins from those services relative to the rest of the group. If fiber demand does accelerate meaningfully, could there be a broader impact on overall group margins?
The second question just relates to the price investment commentary that you provided. Is that a reflection of a perception of improved demand elasticity, or is it more a reflection that demand is such that it requires stimulation through price investment? Thank you.
On your first question on fiber, you know, our fiber portfolio generates very nice margins for us. You know, obviously it depends on a customer by customer basis, how much fiber we're using, what other components we're putting in to help with that solution.
I think the key is the fiber fortification trend is driving a solutions model where typically that business is stickier business and good margin business. It's certainly helpful in that regard. In terms of your question on price and price elasticity, we're clearly in a world where consumers are more challenged. Food is 20%-30% more expensive than it was pre-pandemic because of all of this, all of the geopolitical challenges we've seen over the last three or 4 years.
There clearly is a requirement for some price stimulation to drive demand. More importantly for us, we're trying to balance the way we think about growing our business to make sure we're well positioned for growth through the cycle. In a cycle where demand is more muted, we want to make sure we're stimulating growth so that we're well positioned as markets start to improve.
Excellent. Thank you. I'll pass it on.
Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1. The next question is from Lisa De Neve from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I have 2. First, can we talk a little bit about what you're seeing in APAC? Various players in this reporting season have noted an improvement in China specifically, and I believe your sequential local currency growth is modestly better in APAC.
Any color on that would be great. That's 1. Secondly, can you provide us a little bit of color on how your raw materials are trending into this year on average? How should we think about the direction for cost input inflation or deflation? Thank you.
Maybe let me pick up the APAC question, and Sara can pick up the input cost 1. I mean, we're encouraged by the progress we're seeing in Asia. As you mentioned, we did see some improvements in China in the first 1/2 and that continued through the third 1/4. I mean, it's difficult to talk about Asia as 1 region. It's such a vast, vast area.
We're seeing good progress in China, solid demand in North Asia, across Japan and Korea. That gives us some encouragement for the future. If you look at APAC in the broadest sweep, you know, we've grown our business significantly over the last 5 years.
We're, you know, we're now a $500 million business revenue where we were sort of roundabout 105 years ago. It's a huge growth opportunity for us still because there's 60% of the world's population and a lot of the trends we've talked about on the call are true in Asia as well. The opportunity there is very clear. The fact that we're starting to see some stability and improvement is very encouraging as we go into the next 12 months.
Thanks, Nick. Lisa, on the raw material, I think it's worth reminding you that we've now got a much broader array of raw materials, post the acquisition of CPK. It's not just corn, but it's also, you know, pectins and seaweed, et cetera. Broadly, the more benign environment, there's not a strong inflationary push coming through there. It's more benign, and we're well-diversified.
Thank you.
I think it's fair to say we're seeing pretty flat year-on-year.
Yeah.
-year costs in overall. I mean, there's some ups and downs, but nothing significant.
Yeah.
Mm-hmm.
Thank you. It appears there are currently no further questions. Pardon. We have a follow-up question from Joan Lim from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hello. Sorry, I'm just squeezing in 1 more question because everyone seems to be asking about margins. Nick, you've historically talked about how important it is to protect unit margins. Has this changed? Are you confident of maintaining unit margins this year?
I think the focus on unit margins hasn't changed at all. I think in the near term, we're trying to balance all the levers we have to get the business back into top line growth. Doing that in an environment where markets are more sluggish means we're having to make some choices about where we invest and what choices we make. Fundamentally, over time, we expect to focus on maintaining unit margins and using mix to improve margins to sort of quality the portfolio. We're in a cycle at the moment where we're having to make some choices.
Okay. It's reassuring to hear that you're confident of maintaining the unit margins. Thank you very much.
Thank you. With this, I'd like to hand the call back over to Nick Hampton for any closing remarks.
Thank you, operator, and thank you, everybody, for your questions. Just to summarize, trading in the third 1/4 was in line with our expectations and consistent with the first 1/2. Importantly, our guidance for the full year remains unchanged.
As we've talked a lot about on the call, our number 1 priority is returning the business to top line growth. We're clear on the actions we're gonna take to improve top line performance of the business in the near term. We remain focused on top line growth, execution, and delivering for our customers. Thank you for your time and questions, and I wish you all a very good day.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.