Earnings Call: H1 2021

Aug 4, 2021

Good morning, and welcome to the Taylor Wimpey Plc Half Year Results Presentation. Today's presentation will be hosted by Chief Executive, Pete Redfern Group Finance Director, Chris Carney and Divisional Chair for London and the Southeast, Ingrid Osbourne followed by a Q and A session. I will now turn the call over to Pete Redfern. Pete, please go ahead when you're ready. Thank you. Thank you, everybody, for joining us. If I sort of just give you a quick overview of what we're going to cover today, my section will probably be a little shorter than usual to give Time to hear from Ingrid, who runs our London and Southeast division. Ingrid will also cover sort of an update on our environmental strategy which she has been working on and also an update on some of our employee measures. Chris will then go on to his normal financial review and And moving on to my first slide proper, I'll probably spend a fraction longer on this slide than you should touch on more of the statistics. We think it's a great first half performance. You can see as prioritizing margin growth. And you will see us talk about, and I will specifically focus on towards the end, our focus on outlook led growth from 2023 onwards. You can see the margin performance. We'll talk through the presentation About what we've seen on selling price and cost a little. I don't think the underlying dynamics will surprise you, but obviously, our company specific position on that is important. We are seeing selling price inflation fully offsetting upward pressure on build costs. I would say if you look at it today, there's probably net upside there. I think it's important just to sort of be cautious as we look ahead about the balance that we expect it to continue to at least offset. But obviously, the 2 dynamics that are almost exactly in line quarter by quarter even if they are quite closely linked. Picking up some of the stats. So we've been updating on land approvals in the year to the 4th July. We approved 32,000 plots. That's roughly twice sort of normal completion run rate at the moment or a bit more. If I went back to the sort of period post equity raise and included the last few weeks of the previous period, which obviously was a period of peak approvals. We're at about 36,000, 37000 pots approved since we reentered the land market ahead of our peers. The operating profit margin in the first half of 19.3%, as I say, we're particularly pleased with, but also some of the underlying measures. At 92%, we're solidly in the 5 star category on customer service and a measure that we believe Continues to be underreported and discussed. Our Construction Quality Review score has again shown a step forward 4 years of improvement. We think that is a good way of measuring our underlying construction quality, which will impact both our future customer service for the performance in our customers' own satisfaction with that home and also our own sort of cost base and control going forward. So we think it's particularly important. Moving on to the first half market backdrop slide. I won't pick up every point on this particular slide. But looking at the customer and the market Overall, we've seen continued strong demand across all regions. So we've seen some normalization in what were pretty extreme conditions in the first half. Over the last few weeks, we continue to see a pretty good performance, and we will sort of talk through the stats. I think what would be unusual at the moment, if you talk to Any one of our regional heads, they would say the market today in July, August 2021 It's materially better still than it was in 2018 and 2019. So although we're not quite in the extreme conditions at the first half in terms of forward It remains at an elevated level, and we remain very positive about the market conditions. And as we've said many times, we to connect that more with low interest rates, decent mortgage availability and a strong level of real demand from people who want to Change their life and move on into a new home, sort of rather than just the shorter term measures. And we say on a couple of the slides, You know, sort of an Alprano, you repeat it once. We're continuing to see very good reservation rates and customer interest for a period that is beyond any of the stamp duty windows. And we have not seen through any of the changes in stamp duty any material downward shifts. So we do not see that as a On the regulatory side, clearly, still a lot going on. Again, I don't comment on all of these Elements, I think, on the building safety bill, since we don't see it affecting our cost base going forward materially. Things like that real focus on The construction quality review, for instance, we think puts in Australia in place and things around our focus on a Taylor Woods Standard makes it easier for us to sort of adapt to a world with a new home bond with them particularly. On the planning provision, I would just reiterate that we are very confident that the provision we have made is enough for us to do the work that we believe is right for our customers. We're the only major developer that sold our customers that we will do any necessary capital work to bring with historic blocks of apartments up to current EWS-one standards. I would say more recent announcements since we started acquisition in February Have been positive and are more likely to reduce that scope slightly rather than to grow it. So we remain very confident that we're in the right place, Both financially on that division and more importantly in terms of the licensing for our customers. On the DMA leasehold process, difficult to comment. There's not a new conversation there. It's issues that we've talked about in the past, but difficult to comment on an ongoing process. And on land, I think and I will come back to this in my second section. We do see increased competition in the land market in the first half of this year and are very pleased with the number of sites a bit quiet over the last 12 to 15 months. Moving on to the market performance slide. I think, almost inevitably, everybody dies. We'll go straight to the left hand side. We've continued to see a strong sales rate, a very normal cancellation rate, sort of normalized really from early on this year and remains very stable. I think it's worth picking up a couple of thirds, the sort of bullet points in particular. That shift in Help to Buy sort of level in the first half. Only 27% of completions, roughly half what it was sort of in the first half of last year. First half of last year elevated, so $0.45 perhaps might be a more normal number, but still running well below what we've seen in any year of Help A big chunk of that is because of transition from scheme 1 to scheme 2. And we've obviously navigated that with a long order book without any impact on at completion performance. But I do think there is also an element of it, which is to do with the strength of the secondhand market, which I do believe is likely to continue Into the medium term, meaning that we're slightly less dependent upon how to buy going forward than we have been, although 27%, I'm sure, will be But it gives me a little bit more confidence as we look ahead to 2023 and beyond. I think also worth highlighting, as of today, We're about 99% forward sold for completions for this year. That obviously gives us a high grip confidence in this year's performance sort of as we look forward. We would normally expect to get to that point late September. Moving on to some forward looking indicators on sales. You can see and it's not A huge shift. If you look at the red line on appointments, you can see strong Q1 and then normalizing. If you compare the last few weeks To the early period of 2020 before the pandemic hit, you can see that we're still running above that sort of more normal level. And that first sort of 8 or 9 weeks of 2020 would be a reasonable reflection of the level through 2017, 2018, 2019. From a customer point of view, we've been doing a lot of work on our digital sales processes. We've left a lot over the last year. We felt we have the IT system support and the staff who are quick to adapt to selling remotely and selling digitally. But we've been very focused on not losing that Benefit both in terms of flexibility for our teams, flexibility for our customers, efficiency for the business. We've just launched over the last few weeks a new customer facing website We've significantly improved element placings of block listings, a totally reenergized search function, very different user experience. It also ties in, which Chris might touch on, to the internal systems that we have on the CRM side, Gives us significantly better data segment and understand our customer base and enables us to make the sales process far more scientific and far more efficient Thanks, Art. I will pause there and hand over to Ingrid. And then at the end, I'll come back and cover sort of our priorities and the outlook. Thanks, Pete. Good morning, everyone. My name is Ingrid Osborn. I'm the Divisional Chair for London and Southeast. I've held that post for a little over 3 years now, previous to which I was the Divisional Managing Director And before that, the Managing Director of Central London for almost 7 years. In total, I've been with the company for just shy of 20 years, having originally joined George Wimpey's graduate trainee scheme. So during my section of the presentation today, I'm going to provide you some detail on the London and Southeast division and also give you a brief update on our environment and social strategy with a particular insight into our recent employee survey. So moving on to the first slide. The map on the left there gives you a sense of the operating area and how it's divided. We operate from 5 business units covering inner London, Greater London and the wider Southeast. They are a mixture of growing businesses, well established mature businesses. And just putting out a few points for context for you. Our product is roughly 70% housing and thirty Apartments across the patch. The proportion of completion from Greater London is between 15% to 25% And to split that down a bit further into Outer and Inner London, we currently have only one large active outlet In Zone 1 being our postmark scheme, which is the old post office site located between Kings Cross and Barrington. In Q4 last year, we undertook an overhead review across the division, which is now complete and embedded. We rationalized our structure as a result of that review and created TW London from the operations which Previously based in East London and Central London. This is working well, and we're definitely seeing the benefits of combined skill sets across our teams alongside greater efficiencies. If I move on to the next slide, Again, I'll highlight a few key notable areas from this slide for you. We've had a strong first half, assisted To some extent by the Q4 2020 hangover, but also from a real focus from our teams on smoothing. We are currently operating from 43 outlets and all the teams are extremely focused on driving the engine room processes to get new outlets Open on time and on budget. It's been a busy year for us in that respect. And we've already opened 14 outlets in the first half, and we're on track to open another 19 outlets in the second half. Our operating margin is, of course, another key focus, now starting to normalize from last year with all the teams working hard with a key focus on cost management and price optimization to drive this higher. You can see from the slides that our sales rate Shows the market has been very strong at 1 a week year to date as per our budget with a comparatively low cancellation rate this year at 13 As you would expect, we have very live discussions across all our outlets regularly to focus on the balance between price and Raitt. Our order book is strong at £588,000,000 We're 94% sold for the year and continue to see strong momentum going into next year. We have not any material change in the market as a result of either the change in Help to Buy CAPS nor the end of the SDLT holiday with inquiry levels remaining high and appointment levels actually the highest this week since week 2019. 65% of the value of our order book is post the final removal of the stamp duty holiday at the end of September, demonstrating resilience of the market. Pleasingly, both our 8 week and 9 month customer satisfaction scores are trending upwards. And both the teams and I have been especially pleased with the improvement in our construction quality review score, which you can see by the green line on the graph currently standing at 4.5. If I continue on to the following slide, I thought it would be useful to provide a bit more insight for you into the London and Southeast sales market. It's certainly something which I often get asked about. And if you would imagine, we've been keeping a very close eye on what's happening and whether or not we see any shift in buyer behavior moving out of London. On the ground, we are not seeing that fundamental shift. I think But the idea of deurbanization is somewhat oversimplified. In fact, bio considerations on space, on life stage, on lifestyle and so on are not particularly different to what they have always been. In fact, sales rates year to date from our 3 largest Greater London schemes are higher and our overall divisional sales rate. For example, our Chobham Manor scheme in Stratford stands over 2 Year to date, our Greenwich Millennium Village scheme is just shy of 2 year to date and our Wick Lane scheme in Hackney is at 1.25 year to date, but is trending to 2 in the last 4 weeks. So the notable attraction of these schemes is proximity to open space. Chobham Manor sits directly next to the Olympic Park. And having visited only a couple of weeks ago, I've Really noticed how much the park is maturing with great examples of well executed wildflower planting alongside lots of play areas and amenities. Greenwich is the same. The Ecology Park in the middle of the most recent phase is often quoted as a big attraction. And speaking to customers who live there, they really enjoy the walk along the river to the O2 Centre and the transport facilities. Speaking to some of our sales executives, they told me that in fact a number of customers have relayed their appreciation for being so close to essential facilities during lockdown. Likewise, Wick Lane, our London teams tell me that the buyers priced out of Chobham are prepared to walk back a bit further to get to the Olympic Park and the Westfield Centre. It's around a 10 to 15 minute walk for a lower price point whilst still being close to what they see as a more emerging neighborhood with price growth and proximity to the station and some funky pubs alongside the river there. So for me, I do think our customers are more interested than they have ever been in open Space and also amenities, but I don't think that this means a decision between urban areas and non urban areas because the 2 are not mutually exclusive. Our customers are showing us with their ongoing purchasing behavior that the popularity of London Living is enduring. We are, of course, though conscious of other buyer priorities that we hear. Our customers regularly ask about home working options and especially connectivity. So this is, of course, very high on our agenda. I should also note that the inner London market is different again, being much more investor focused. Here we have seen slower rates, but certainly not Our London scheme at Postmark on release is over 50% sold. And in fact, over the last few weeks, we have really started to see increased interest and secured a number of deals. Anecdotally, the return of the universities to something more like normal is driving this renewed interest and rentals at Postmark are extremely popular for overseas students. This, coupled with the current undersupply in inner London, suggests positive prospects going forward for well located quality schemes like Postmark. If I turn now to the land market on the next slide. The divisional teams have been very active in the past 12 to 15 months, and I've been extremely pleased with the performance, which That's us up strongly for the medium term across a broad range of really excellent sites. We have approved 7,700 plots in the division, 94% of which are under contract already, investing over £500,000,000 and we have visibility of a strong pipeline of deals still coming through the system around 2,000 plus close to £2,000,000 I've been involved in land throughout my career at TW. And I can honestly say that the number and caliber of sites that we've been able to Choir before the current competitive tightening of the market is really very significant. We were able to stay active in the market when our competitors were either or not performing. And that was a big advantage to us at the time. But just as importantly, I think it enabled us to build a reputation for professionalism and reliability, which has stayed with us and given us a stronger position in a more competitive market. We are very selective about where we spend our time, and our current position means we can afford to continue this approach into the future and retain attractive KPIs. At the same time, the teams work extremely hard with local authorities and communities, getting planning through the system and getting ready to start on-site and get our outlets open. The next slide gives you just a couple of examples of the sites we have secured. So the first one at the top is Gilsden Village at Harlow. That's a very large site that we will share between 2 of our businesses. We secured that above Sandoz benchmark rates. And Our activity in that respect enabled us to secure this off market and provides us with an excellent backbone site that we intend to open by the end of 2023. The second scheme at the bottom there is in Hassek. Again, lovely scheme, 500 units about 7 miles north of Brighton, has planning, so relatively low risk site. We secured that as a result of one of our competitors failing to perform, and we're currently on track to get that outlet I'd like to turn now to our environment strategy, a key part of the sustainability of the business, of course, and I've really enjoyed working with the team on this topic over the past 18 months. We are very proud of what we've already been doing in this space, having recently been included in the Financial Times inaugural list of Europe's Climate Leaders. But that said, with our drive to continuously improve, earlier in the year, we launched our new strategy, which focuses on the 3 key pillars you can see here: carbon reduction, nature and waste and resources. We wanted the strategy to be clear and easy to understand, but at the same time have challenging and clear targets with which to measure ourselves. The rollout across the business has progressed well with internal training having been provided and ongoing master class sessions happening across We've also launched a business unit innovation grant initiative to encourage good ideas and sharing of best practice. On carbon reduction, we have now committed to science based targets. These are an externally calculated and assessed measure of what we should be doing in order to play our part in achieving the ambitious aims of the Paris Climate Change Agreement, which is to keep global warming at less than 1.5 degrees. We have a number of plans afoot, as you would imagine, to achieve these targets. On Nature, we are committed to increasing natural habitats, and we are working with Bug Life and Hedgehog Street, for example, to make our properties more wildlife friendly. We are implementing bug hotels, VBricks and hedgehog highways across appropriate sites already this year. Bug Life are championing the beeline, which they describe as a transport infrastructure Across the U. K. For insects, which is a great phrase. And we're working with them to identify the sites that we control, which sit on the beeline in order to join in with this fantastic initiative. On waste and resources, we continue our focus on protecting the environment and improving with a number of trials underway and a commitment to working closely with partners and supply chain to do more. We're really proud of what we are doing and teams continue to embrace the challenge. And to bring some of this to life for you, I have some examples on the following slide. So the first one, this is our site at Borden in Hampshire, which is a joint venture with Dorchester Group. As you can see, this is an extremely large piece of land and we've sought to make the most of this opportunity. And the slide here gives just a couple of bullets of the types of things we've achieved. But to note really, I think it's been such a great opportunity to Create new green spaces and encourage active lifestyles. And having visited myself recently, I have to say it was lovely to The area being well used and enjoyed by families, by residents and other members of the community. And in addition, as you'll see on one of the bullet points It's been great that the new types of bird sightings have been noted in the area and have been seen previously. On the next slide, there's a couple of images there just to show you what the Bug Hotel looks like, in case you didn't know. The top slide there shows you the smaller version of the Bug hotels. There are actually larger versions, which can be used areas of public open space, but these smaller ones can be used in gardens and much smaller areas. The pollinators use the cavities and the tubes you can see in the picture there to nest and lay their eggs. And the bottom image there is just an example of wildflower planting, which we are seeking to use a lot more readily across a number of our developments. On the next slide, a couple of examples on carbon reduction. The top scheme there is our development at Coronation Square in Layton, which we've actually just got started on. This will turn into a district heating network, which will incorporate neighboring developments as well, something that was really important to the local council, Wharton Forest, who are our joint venture partner on that scheme. And the image at the bottom is our Chobham Manor scheme of Stratford. This was a development where we have constructed townhouses that use 0 achieve 0 rated regulated CO2 emissions. And by in doing that, we've used only on plot measures, which is pretty unusual. And those images are real. So those houses are there in use and being well used at present. So turning finally to our social focus. We have been committed to engaging and supporting our employees for a number of years now to build a sustainable culture and an inspiring working environment, and we're really proud of the results of this recent employee survey, which we conducted in March. We had a 91% engagement level across the business, which we thought was excellent, given the backdrop of the previous 12 to 18 months and demonstrates the resilience of our workforce. That said, We're committed to keep improving, and I'll highlight some of the areas on the slide here, which are of particular importance as we focus on the new post lockdown normal. We are unwavering on our commitment to health and safety practices, which is reflected in the responses here. 96% of our employees believe we take health and safety in the workplace seriously. As a business, we understand the importance of creating diverse and inclusive teams. But most importantly, it's about how our employees feel, which But most importantly, it's about how our employees feel while they're at work. And we're making steady progress here, which is reflected in 96% our employees seeing employees from all cultures and backgrounds being respected and valued. In addition, we were particularly pleased with the 96 They can be their authentic self at work without the need to cover identity. And this is something we feel really strongly about that really matters. We also know we have further to go. And this year, we have launched new policies, such as the Menopause Policy. We've introduced 3 employee networks, the Menopause Affinity Group, LGBTQ plus and working parents to add to our BAME network. And we're in the process of rolling out respectful work Place training to continue to build awareness across the business of inclusive behaviors. So finally, with the challenges of the last 18 months as We get used to a new normal. We remain committed to building the resilience of our employees and particularly focusing on well-being and mental health. We have set out guidance on our continued commitment to agile and flexible working. We continue to offer awareness training for all employees and mental Health Birth Aiders, all of which is reflected in our survey with 93% of employees knowing how to access support for mental health and well-being at work, if wanted. I have to say I've seen some fantastic ideas and And I'm really proud of the commitment that our senior teams have to our people so that we ensure we attract and retain the very best. And on that important note, I will hand over to Chris. Thanks, Ingrid, and good morning, everyone. In keeping with the Olympic vibe, these results are a record performance for half one revenue and operating profit, reflecting the hard work and dedication of our team, as Ingrid has just touched on. The operating margin at 19.3% is better than expected, Better than the first half of twenty nineteen, and it demonstrates both our ability to control costs and the underlying quality of our land bank. And we're very pleased with the margin performance, and I'll provide more detail on that in a minute. After Deducting the dividend paid in May, the profit generated over the last 12 months has increased the tangible net asset value per share to £1.13 which is a very healthy 10% increase on this time last year. The return on net operating assets shown at the bottom of the Slide is calculated on a 12 month rolling basis, and it's great to see that recover to 23%. And bear in mind, that return is after taking To account the drag impact of the continued investment in land to drive growth in 2023 and beyond. Looking at the detail of the U. K. Performance, it is no surprise that the record revenues have been driven by record completion volumes. You will recall this time last year, Pete and I were very clear about the site closures pushing completions originally intended for Q4 of 20 20 into Q1 of this year, and that is exactly what you are seeing in these numbers. Affordable completions are running at 16% in the first half, Our guidance for the full year is unchanged at 17%, so a slightly higher mix of affordable in the second half. Close to half of the 11% increase in average selling price is driven by the lower affordable mix in the period compared to the first half of last year when affordable completions made up 23% of the total. Private average selling prices increased by 6.5 Since the same period last year, 3% of that is price inflation and the balance is mixed, including a larger share completions from grade A quality locations. The affordable average selling prices also increased due to improved site quality and a slightly larger average unit size. This slide shows the main components of the recovery in operating margin compared to the first half of twenty twenty and demonstrates why we think this is a sustainable performance and sets us up for further growth in margin in the future. The biggest improvements come from the areas I flagged back in March, which you can see in the two boxes. The first box includes the reversal of the $39,000,000 of COVID related booked in the first half of last year and the cost savings captured this year from the restructuring we undertook at the end of last year. The second box shows the impact from the return to more normal levels of fixed cost recovery as volumes have improved. In addition, the margin delivered by completions in the first half benefited on average from a net market impact of 1% Compared to the first half of twenty twenty. Since the start of this year, pressure on build costs has increased due to the strength of the market and supply constraints, but that pressure is being fully offset by house price inflation, as Pete mentioned earlier. Back in March, I set out a bridge to achieving our medium term 21% to 22% margin target, and I'm pleased to confirm that we remain on track with those The restructuring is complete and the savings are being realized as planned. Our excellent order book position at 99% sold The area is helping fund the Fins selling prices. The land bank continues to evolve and you can see 50 bps of improvement from that in this reconciliation And our strong land investment over the last 12 months puts us in a position to deliver a step up in volume in 2023. At the prelims, Jenny and I gave you some color on our new house type range and CRM system. The rollout of both are progressing in line with our expectations And our procurement strategy and engagement with suppliers to understand their product road map is ensuring we set ourselves up To procure products that are available and whose costs remain as low as possible. So hopefully, that gives you a sense of what's underpinning our confidence In achieving our medium term operating margin target of 21% to 22%. Turning to the balance sheet. I think it really shows how we are setting the business up to deliver growth over the coming years. Unsurprisingly, the biggest change to the balance sheet compared to 12 months ago and something I'm very pleased to report is the increase in land cost of 455,000,000 following the deployment of the proceeds of the equity raise. Work in progress was artificially high this time last year as a result of the site closures, So the reduction comes as no surprise, especially given the strength of the first half delivery and reduction in outlets. WIP per outlet is actually pretty much flat year on year. Now bearing in mind those outlook numbers and the well publicized constraints on materials and resources, Our expectations for 2022 volumes are unchanged. We are expecting modest volume growth in 2022. On top of that, as you know, we are expecting the land investment I mentioned a minute ago to deliver outlook growth from late 2020 Net cash at the half year was $907,000,000 which is higher than we've reported in the past. But I think it's important to avoid looking at cash in isolation. For me, it should always be considered together with land creditors, which you will note are also higher due to the increased land investment. Our philosophy on land creditors is that we don't believe it's appropriate for them to finance land assets because they have fixed maturities in the short to medium term. So we aim to keep adjusted gearing at low levels to ensure we maintain resilience and financial strength throughout the cycle. It's also worth remembering that we're still at the relatively early stages of the growth phase and the pipeline of land approvals is still to be fully reflected on the balance sheet. Lastly, there is some detail in the appendices on the latest funding agreement With the pension scheme trustees, which was agreed in March. And worth noting that the scheme had a surplus of $51,000,000 at the end of June on a technical provisions basis and $59,000,000 on an IAS 2019 basis. This slide shows another period of strong cash generation for the group. The largest outflow on the slide is land, which is shown net Land recoveries on completions. The total land spend in the period amounted to £588,000,000 You can also see there the 2020 final ordinary dividend of GBP 151,000,000 which was paid in May. Today, consistent with our ordinary dividend policy, we're declaring an interim dividend for this year to be paid in November of a further 151,000,000 or 4.14p per share. And this means we will return $301,000,000 to shareholders in 2021. Turning to guidance. We've previously guided U. K. Completions in 2021 to being in a range from 13,200 And given the performance in the first half, the strength of our order book and ongoing build, we are now in a position to guide completions to be towards the top end of that range with half two slightly lower than half one and with 17% of the full year total being affordable homes. And as I noted earlier, assuming stable market conditions and no additional disruption to the supply chain, we're expecting UK completions to Show modest growth in 2022. Given the strong profit performance in half 1, we have upgraded Our guidance for full year group operating profit, including joint ventures, to be around GBP820,000,000 which is above the top end of consensus. As a result of the increase in volume guidance and strong cash generation to date, we've updated our guidance for the year end net cash to be similar to the end of 2020 at around £700,000,000 As ever, that is Object to the timing of land spend and given the pipeline of land that we're processing, it is possible net cash could end up a couple of $100,000,000 less than that, but we will update on that in November. And there are no changes to the interest and JV guidance. So the last thing for me to do is remind you, just in case you missed it, that our priority is getting the operating margin 21% to 22% and positioning the business for accelerated output driven volume growth from 2023. We have a plan to do that. The components of that plan are on track, and the early results are evident in the numbers we are presenting today. And I think I'll hand over to Pete. Thank you, Chris. If I move Straight on to my sort of first slide with which highlights 4 key priorities. And Chris has mentioned the first two and touched on them. And I will spend a bit longer on them give you a slightly different perspective that on the margin focus, the balance in selling price and costs and our focus on growth, particularly from 2023 onwards. The other two priorities relate to broader measures within the business, our desire to deliver strong and consistent customer service, A very consistent, reliable, right first time build quality and a great employee experience and our broader social and governance sort of focus particularly the environmental strategy. I won't spend very long on the last two because Ingrid has covered them in some detail. And then I will talk at the end about how we see the outlook. So moving on to my first full slide on margin delivery. Yes, this obviously has been a big area of focus for the group both internally and externally. We have said several times that we feel we've got the balance of this slightly wrong in 2019. It's not a big shift, but we were probably 3% to 4% too high on volume and 1.5% to 2% to lower margin. And although the 2 are not entirely directly related, there is obviously a relationship. That changed in late 2019. And although it's obscured by the pandemic, our focus through the last 18 months Very much return to margin led and, as Chris put it, and I would reinforce, outlet led volume growth. We believe volume growth creates value and it's the right thing for us to do from a broader social point of view, but actually, it has to be robust in the right way. Our cost control focus and systems improvements are in place, and we can really see the fruits of them in the first half. We were confident through last That we could make those changes. We could see the benefits. I think the restructuring we completed in late 2020 made a difference to our cost base, but most importantly, It just streamlined and simplified our management roots, so ownership of cost is much clearer within the business. We believe a long order book and obviously the positive selling environment helps us, but that long order book lets us focus on price optimization to maintain A very solid sales rate. The balance of that sales rate will depend on trading conditions, but we believe that although 2019 is the peak, It's still appropriate to run a search rate that tends to be slightly ahead of the sector given the quality of our outlook, the fact that we don't double head out. So We're talking about an outlook. There is just one payer when Pete locates on that, and that shows the block size driven by higher numbers. Just to give you a sense of sort of the balance that we've seen sort of on cost and sales, we've said that they have That's been cost inflation has been fully offset by sales price. And I touched earlier that I would say, as of today, slightly more than. I think that's quite important to understand. I think it's appropriate to be cautious as we look at the balance over the next 6 months. Well, that's slightly more than built in, so we've continued to get that, but we continue to believe that we can achieve our margins within this environment and are highly confident, and I would say more confident than 6 months ago given the performance that we have seen. If I move on to land, We said it was the equity rate that we believe that our land bank would grow by around 10,000 units. The result was the equity raise in our investments in land. That was from a level at that point in time of about 77,000 units. We continue to be very confident that, that will happen. Our deals that we have already done So through into the land bank, you've seen 5,000 sort of positive that growth happen in the first half of the year. You will see a substantial Further addition in the second half of the year. At the moment, we believe that the land bank territory will probably grow by more than the protect housing units that we've left at that point in time. And we have continued to be active to date. Although as Ingrid said, and Ingrid's comment on land about the quality and quantity of deals that we have Some over the course of the last 12 months will be reflected by all of our divisional Chairmen. And so just then as we see a more competitive market at the moment, we continue to be active We're on much more of a sort of replacement basis. We're very pleased with the quality of our sites. We have managed to rebalance sort of the average site size, So it gives us more flex. And we're also very pleased with the geographic spread with all of our businesses making land additions over the last 12 months I'm putting us in a position where sort of all of our businesses are in a strong position as they look at the next 2 to 3 years of deliverable. I think the key focus today, though, should be on outlook progression. You know over the last sort of 10 years, I've been very wary of giving outlook forecast. The fact that I am giving one today should give you confidence that we have the size and the capacity to at least achieve this number. We expect Our outlook to grow by around 60% over the next 2 months, which sort of adds something around 23%, 23% to our current outlook number. So it's very Very significant growth number. Yes, that is not assuming that we hit every single output So we'll get it through the planning process at the level that we expect to have an individual outlet level. That builds in some sort of contingency. And that's so our numbers Should grow a little during this year, and we continue to believe we'll end this year at more or less the time that we began it. They'll grow a little in the first half of next Yes, but they will really start to accelerate in the second half of twenty twenty two, which is very much in line with the guidance that we gave at the time of the equity raise. So we ended 2023 with a significantly elevated number of outlets and actually with those outlets already up and running And the build and completion is in place, which is why we expect it to be material volume growth in 2023. Some in 20 22 The material growth we're expecting in 2023 and be, as I say, outlook driven. And we continue to believe that that level of leverage deliver Consistent on the volume of 17,000 to 18,000, at least 2,000 ahead of the level that we were running at before the equity ratio of the pandemic. Moving on to the sort of the 3rd bullet point, which I'm not going to spend a long time on because I think we've spent some time on sort of the But I do think, as I touched on right at the beginning, the focus across the business on underlying build quality is It's the importance that I believe stands out in the sector. You can see customer service performance and the whole industry is focusing much more effectively on customer service than it was. But I think we're unique in the level of focus and the investments that we've made over the last 3 to 4 years in build quality And across the board, our investments in the systems and processes and training our people and in modernizing the business in many ways, I think I'm now starting to pay off. I don't always deliver immediately, but we're really starting to see the benefit. And I will touch very briefly On employees. Ingrid touched on sort of our customer survey around employee survey results, but also we do see a real opportunity, Thank you for our employees, particularly for business, to use some of the lessons learned around flexibility and remote working to make the business more efficient and to give it better to give overall experience for our employees. So moving on to finally to a summary slide. Our sense is that market conditions remain good. We believe that the resilience we've seen over the course of the last 12 months demonstrates the underlying demand in the UK. And the long term low level of interest rates and good mortgage availability more than it illustrates the impact of shorter term measures. And that gives us continued confidence that the market will continue to perform well over the course of the next few years. Our strong path one performance really does show the underlying quality of our land bank. And that although we acknowledge that 2019 didn't go back to plan, But actually, the business is in good shape, and our assets are in good shape and that we are perfectly capable of managing price and cost balance and showing improvements in the business. We have upgraded 2021 expectations today with a very derisked half 2. I do want to be clear that you should not expect material volume growth in 2022. We expect to deliver the guidance that we have given you. But we are very focused on our value growth being driven by outlook growth and so not returning to 2019 sort of very high sales rate. But significant potential to build in 2022 on 2021 performance with some volume growth and margin improvement And then real potential in 2023 to show material growth and beyond that as well. We believe that our land investment gives us Very significant potential ahead of the sector to outperform in terms of volume but also to understand that margin improvement. And lastly, just bringing together all of the other points, we believe our sustained investments in customer service, build quality and our people placing the business in a strong and sustainable position. We can move to questions, please. Our first question comes from Rajesh Sia from HSBC. Your line is now open. Thank you very much. Good morning, gents and good. I have two questions, if I may. The first one is on The house price inflation, so first half was close to 3%, considering how the market is right now, Do you expect that house price inflation to notch up further in H2? And just putting into context the 99% you are already followed sold for this year. So how the order book you think could step up in second half on house price inflation? And on the second question is on the build cost part. You helpfully pointed out that the first half Kind of offset that with the hospice inflation as well as cost saving. But looking at how much pressure on the material side, Could you please give any kind of guidance for the full year? What kind of full cost inflation you expect? So Rajesh, I mean, on selling prices, it's obviously spent massively on both questions, what time period you take. And the 2% to 3% effect is That coming through completions rather than that point to point movement in hash price inflation. And I would say the point to point movement From mid to late last year through to today, it's more like 5% to 6% on house price inflation. And we see that sort of left in our order book. Given the length of the order book, it averages out at a slightly lower than that, but it's certainly above the 2% to 3%. I think on cost price inflation, similar sort of piece, you've got to be very careful at the timescale. Cost inflation, we would say, over the last 12 months has been in the range of 4% to 4.5%, but that's been weighted towards the last 6 months more than the house price inflation. We are seeing some softening of those cost price sort of movements, but it's early days for that yet. And it's been particularly driven, as I don't think we'll surprise you by materials. There is inflation in subcontract costs, but it's nothing like it's significant. So we're seeing that soften. And I think as we look at the second half of the year, I expect to see positive house price inflation. I don't expect it to be As such as much house price inflation as over the last 6 to 9 months, I expect to see some cross price inflation, But at the sort of level by the end of the year, probably won't have got to a fully normal level, but we'll have come back more on sort of normal band. But I'm not I think it's hard for us to give a forecast on them, but we can give you a clear view of what is running at. Thank you. Can I just ask one more question on London? It's very helpful that the market is kind of booming and going Back to normal level. But can you just give us a little more color about how that market is stepping up in terms of Apartments and this largest single family home. So whether the space is kind of is a new norm and people are kind of moving from apartment to this larger home. So I'm just trying to understand whether there is any kind of pressure points in the apartment segment, which hasn't yet picked up compared to your business, which Kind of returning back to normal. Yes. I think sort of if you are asking if we think there is a I don't think that's the case. I think two main reasons. 1, Yes. I don't really believe I think, as Ingrid said, we don't really believe that there is this sort of massive exodus from either urban areas or from apartments into Non urban areas and very difficult actually for somebody who is choosing to be based in London to make a switch from apartment to house. Just Finances just don't allow that to be sort of a large scale movement. But I think it's also important to have in mind that the level of Construction of new apartments in London is running at a much lower level and sort of for reasons around planning and Relative weakness in that market before the pandemic. So actually, if you look forward at the next 5 years, I'd say probably there's an argument for some recovery in relative prices. I'm not sure that's going to happen in the next 12 months, but I certainly don't see a big relative risk on apartment prices. I mean Ingrid, sort of anything you would add to that? Or would you broadly agree? Completely agree. Yes. The supply point is well made. I think that's Very pertinent. But equally, yes, as I said, I just don't think it's as simple as everybody wanting to move out of apartments into houses. That's just not what we see happening at the moment, and there's no reason to suggest that that will be a fundamental shift in the near term. Understood. Thank you very much. No problem. Our next question comes from Will Jones from Redburn Partners. Your line is now open. Thanks. Morning. 3, if I could, please, as well. Maybe you could talk, please, Just a bit more around speed of build, build rates. Obviously, we've seen lots of talk of material shortages, more recently the pandemic issues. Just any anecdotes around that would be great. And just how you think about measuring that? Some of your peers talk to us about equivalent units In build or build rate per week, but is there a particular metric that you like to keep on top of there? The second, maybe just if you could update us more generally about your Per site in terms of product to sell and just how you're managing the issue of such a long order book. I think you said 99% sold for the year. So I'd imagine I think customers in August pretty much everything for January onwards is fairly uncharted territory for the business. So how they're, I guess, reacting to that proposition? And then the last one, just a clarification around the approvals you've made. I noticed that the cost of the approvals was about 14% of sales versus 2020 last year, which obviously quite a big drop down. I expect your answer with reference to net margin, but just in terms of How that should differ so much, I guess, on a yearly basis would be just interesting to learn around. Thank you. If you start answering the question to us before you have even asked them, Will, then sort of showing you we won't give you any information. Just on that last one. I mean, I think if you look at a long term trend, plot cost is an interesting trend if you look at any period. And obviously, we could argue This year's is better than last year's. I think that's a spurious argument. The reality is the volatility depending on the mix of sites It's significant, both by geography and particularly the balance between sort of large sites with infrastructure and small sites that are ready to run. The 20% reflected the most On competitive sort of land buying that we've done in the last sort of 15 years, nobody else in the market. And we were Yes, very much, very openly targeting small sites that were quick to market at a point when others were at the market completely. So you end up with a higher plot cost of sales, but actually stronger performance on those. The mix you've got in the first half of this year is more normalized. So it includes a normal mix of strategic lands, lower cost of sales, but on average, larger sites. So You really see the early kind of post capital raise sort of accelerated return to market at Taylor Wimpey, Sort of changing the plot cost, but also changing the speed and the next of the size that we're able to buy. Taking all the others together because they're all kind of related I think we are very pleased with the way our teams are delivering in what is a challenging environment for them on the build side. So that We are getting the products that we need. We have little bottlenecks, but they are little. So it causes a lot more work for our site managers. They have to be on it The connection between and you will remember that we are fairly unique in having a Sort of central sort of distribution function that secures materials to the group and then distribution as Bill packed. We have found that has been hugely helpful because it gives us good group level information and a good dialogue. So we've got a team that can back up our local sourcing sort of with suppliers if we have any constraints. That is working for us, and we are pleased with where our build and our construction is. But it does mean that If you wanted to step up construction by 15% to match sales demand, it will be next to impossible. Your risk to cost, quality and the pressure on the team would be quite high. So it is a limiting factor. There is no doubt. So it is being delivered well. And I would say We're at at least normal build rates per site. We don't tend to use build rates in equivalent unit measures Because they can find a lot of deals. We look at it start by start and we look at outliers. So we're looking we look at construction stages relative to Sort of where we are with the sales completion, we look at overall construction stages per site. But if you focus your teams purely on, are they making A certain number of ticks in boxes. You can find you've got a large number of houses, all of which are 30% complete and none that You can actually just sell. So yes, we don't use one overall metric. We occasionally use it from an external point of view. So I would say this time last year, we were You've shown you some of those specifics on build rates. I would say today, we are running per site at above what we would consider a normal level of construction per site, Not massively, but 5% to 10% above, sort of matching the long order book and the high sales rate. So but it's hard for We're pleased with the performance, but I don't want to take away from the fact that everybody in the team is having to work hard at it and we're using the systems That we've got. And in terms of the impact of that unavailability, we are going to largely on most of our sites since January February last year. It's territory we've been charting for a little while now. So I think we have response to our managing the communication and the dialogue that I have from us. And if you look at the customer service We've seen historically long lead times and impact on customer service scores. Those customer service scores at 92% for the first half Obviously, people, many of whom reserved at different stages of the lockdown. And so I've had an extended period of time from regulation complete And our face delays. So I think that's good evidence that we're managing communication and the information with our customers Well, and we are much better than we were 4 or 5 years ago. We're selling 6 or 7 months ahead To know that the build program can deliver. The number of sites where the build program sort of gets delayed at that point is significantly less than it delays a lot. So I think that the management and the control, sort of, and the systems that we've got to make sure that our forecast rates are reasonable, Much more reliable. And if I go to the sales rate, I think it is interesting that the sales rate we have today for this year is exactly Our targeted budgeted sales rate. We are managing the price and turning into the market that's there. We are where we want to be. Great. Thank you. And just sorry, just tying back up on the original land price point. I don't think the bubble chart is in the No, it has been before and perhaps it's in the release, apologies. But those approvals in the first half of this year, would you are they still, In theory, creating a similar level of returns as those May be. May be. Yes. Thank you. I think that a couple of times we've got to remove the bubble chart over the course of the last couple of years and we finally done it. But yes, they are very much at those same level The upper end of that 21% to 22% margin range. Right. Thank you. Our next question comes from Gregor Kuglitsch from UBS. Your line is now open. Hi, good morning. Couple of questions, please, or maybe 3 actually. So just came back on the volume ramp up, so you've kind of Given some indication clearly for this year, next year, I think you're seeing modest, maybe 5%. And then you kind of reiterate the 17,000, 18000. So if you just give us a line of sight, how meaningful the step up is, I guess, in 23 before we kind of reach that ambition, which I guess is beyond 23, but correct me if I'm wrong. The second question is on land. You kind of called it out, I think, numerous times, which has increased competition. So can you give us a sense Compared to maybe 6 months ago, how the intake margin is evolving and what the degree of pressure is there? And then finally, maybe it's just sort of generic question, but you obviously decided to make London an emphasis of today. And I just wondered why that is specifically. Was it just because you thought it was interesting? Or are you specifically calling trying to call out that London is coming back? Yes. Let me deal with the last one first, Greg. I don't think we were particularly aiming to make London an emphasis from a strategic point of view. Yes. We think it's important for you to see sort of a broad base of the team. Jenny has presented a number of times, so Jenny is on holiday this Ingrid is a key part of our team, and it felt like a good opportunity for you to hear from her. And I'm conscious haven't done a Capital Markets Day in a while and probably want to wait until we can do one properly face to face. And so it's more driven by Wanting you to hear from the broader team and to give Ingrid a chance to sort of talk to you. And it is that we're making a strategic stake on London. We have Reduce the scale of our Central London business, but we still continue to believe that London as a Southeast is a good market and a market we want to be in and that we're continuing to invest in. That shouldn't be new news. So to say it's more about people than it is about London. So Chris, I'll go back to you at the end to pick up Gregor's volume question. And if I then pick up the land question, and then I'll hand over to you on volume. Right. We have called out the increased competition. I doubt that will surprise you. Sort of and it certainly doesn't surprise us. Sort of I think what we believe is we saw sort of competitors return to the land market much more gradually. Yes. 1 or 2 actually, including 1 larger private business came into market actively at the same time as we did 12 or more months ago, but others sort of were slow until getting into late 2020, Very early 2021. And then I'll try to catch up. And so as hash prices have risen, you should have seen an increase in land prices. I wouldn't flag answering your specific question, I wouldn't flag a decrease in intake margin, but I would flag The land prices that we were paying 12 months ago, which is still coming through onto our balance sheet now, are materially lower than land prices today. Land prices today are reflecting A meaningful movement in sort of house prices as they normally would, but I think it does obviously make us pretty pleased with those acquisitions. And Chris, I can go back to you on the volume and the sort of volume for 2023 question. Yes, of course. And just to sort of be clear about the sort of trajectory. So in 2021, We said we previously guided completions in the range from 13,200 to 14,000. And we're now Guiding completion speed towards the top end of that range. And then what we're saying is for 2022, there'll be modest growth On those 2021 upgraded volumes. It's still too early, obviously, to be providing And he's also formal guidance for 2023. But you can see from what we're saying in terms of the outlook And the fact that we're giving you an indication on outlook growth over the next 24 months, I think that sort of underpins an indication of what that number in 2023 would be. And I think Consensus currently sits at something like 15,972. So I'd be very comfortable with that number. Thank you. I think all I would add is we're sort of flagging 4% or 5% completion growth in 2022 and the fact that we're saying the bigger growth comes in 2023. Chris is right. It's early for formal guidance on a number. Of course, it would depend a bit on market, but the potential in scale. And again, it's one reason we've given you the Net outlook growth number, not just the number of additions we might the number of new openings we might have, but a net additions number is to Give you some sense of the potential there for 2023, but it is early to make a specific number. Thank you. That's helpful. Thank you. Our next question comes from Amy Gala from Citigroup. Your line is now open. Yes. Good morning, guys. Just a few questions from me. The first one was on the future home standard. I'm considering the sort of Direction of travel and energy efficiency regulation in the industry. Do you think you would need A greater usage of timber frame in the future and is that one of the investment plans in the business going forward? The second one, if you could give us some Further color on the ongoing discussions on developer tax levy, where is that heading? And the third one is really just a follow-up on your comments around what's happening in the land market and while intake margins are holding up. How sustainable do you think is the sort of the medium term margin guidance beyond this sort of 2024 time line? Yes. So just on future home standards. Yes, I think the standards come in, but very much what we have been Talking to you about since sort of very early last year. So there is no surprise for us In those, our teams have been working out as the regulation has become more clear that we work out the exact sort of We do expect more timber frame. And we've been building more timber frame over the course of the last 3 or 4 years, Albeit, I think that will change. And it does depend on the particular house type, the location, depending on weather and availability. So we don't see it as being going down our wholly timber frame rates or even a sort of Sort of massively terms of framework. But having the flex to be able to use this where it's relevant is important. So Yes. I've said a couple of times. I would not rule out for us investing in timber frame construction as in a timber frame factor. It's one of the few areas of vertical integration I think we would look at, but it still remains pretty uncertain about what the right answer is. We're doing a lot of work at the moment about different build methods. But what we have seen is a lot of people, both inside the industry and supply of the industry, making big statements about sort of the next methodology, But then it's quickly changing and a different methodology being more effective. And I've got to be honest, we're consciously watching, researching, Testing and our technical guys are all over it, but actually not quite convinced yet that we found the right sort of best long term answer. And I know what the regulation is now sort of helps, but I think it's where the regulation changes again in 2023 that we really need to sort of see that On land margins and going to your specific question, does the land environment make us question the sustainability of the 21% to 22% sort of margin target. The short answer is no. We have said before That if we put all the math together on the land we've got at the moment, the land we bought over the last 12 or 18 months, then mathematically, Our operating margin should be above that level. I think it is improvement for us to assume that's the case, but effectively, let's absorb Lots of moving parts, if you see what I mean. So I think we continue to believe it's the right movement and that actually we can absorb the ups and downs that we would expect in the market, including things like regulatory changes and sort of shifts in the land market and still maintain that guidance. You would never say there is one perfect 1% range that you couldn't you would never be above. So we size that guidance as being something we believe was a reasonable medium term sustainable level rather than a Hail Mary, we could get Medium to have sustainable level rather than a Hail Mary, we could get there and then not stay there. That's the aim of it. And on the developer act, I'm afraid there's nothing new to add. And I think Chris, I don't know if there's anything new you want to say, but I'm not sure we've got any particularly new news. No. I think you'd have to ask Our next question comes from Marcus Cole from Liberum. Your line is now open. Good morning, all. Hope you're well. Just a couple of questions from me. I was just thinking with a special in mind really, could you remind me of what your view is on what is surplus capital? And then just to clarify, should we expect land investment to return to a reflection rate from 2023? Thanks. Yes. I think, yes, so again, in reverse order picking up the land investment one. In terms of new approvals, We expect sort of to be at more or less replacement level from here on in. But there will be elevated Sort of additions to the land bank over at least the next 6 months and probably the next 12 months just as the land that we've already sourced flows through. So I'm here today. Just looking at 2023, I'd expect us to be operating at more or less a deflation level in the land market. But obviously, that's a slightly Good question in any one year that will be a bit better placed to answer as we get closer. I'm sorry, could you just repeat the first question? I haven't made a note of it. I was just thinking in terms of surplus capital. So what's your view on where you would start returning special really? So we still continue and it's sort of what we probably said a year ago and sort of Repeat, it's Vince. Our expectation is that we will make some sort of capital distribution in 12 months' time sort of basically back to where we were pre pandemic in terms of timing of cash returns and that we will announce that on a more normal time line than we have done historically. So likely to stay with our prelims in February next year in terms of quantum. Okay. Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Christopher Fremantle from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Hi, good morning. Just two questions. First, just to be clear on what you're saying on the margin side. Are you you talk about the 21%, 22% margin guidance. Are you suggesting you can get there in 20 22 already or do we need to wait until the volume ramp up comes through for us to get to that sort of margin target? So any color you can give on sort of on the sort of 2022 margin progression would be helpful, please. And then Just on the developer levy, is it your expectation that we're going to hear more on that in the U. K. Government's Autumn budget statement? Or again, are we going to need to wait a bit longer for that? Any color you can provide on that would be Yes. I'm going to move over those, Chris. Thanks. On the developer levy, Unfortunately, fairly similar to the last answer in that, obviously, it's under consultation at the moment. And will it appear in the autumn budget? Perhaps. I don't know. So we'll just have to wait and see on that. I think on the margin side, For 2022, what we're saying is unchanged from what we've said previously. We expect to get back to A normal ish margin in 'twenty two, similar to 2019 levels, so somewhere in the range 19.5% to 20%. But clearly, We'll be targeting the top end of that range and push to get something starting with a 2. And then clearly, with As we move into 2023 and the volumes step up, then the improved recovery from those increased volumes will help the margin further. Okay. I think if I can add one thing, which is not about sort of where our guidance is, but it's about where our focus is. I think we've said it, but I do think it's important to sort of stress it in relation to 2022. I would really counsel you not to go above the top end of our sort of volume range for 2022. But where we will be focusing is delivering that volume properly, but also focusing on the margin delivery. So if there's upside, it's in the margin more than it's in the volume. And that will, of course, depend on the balance of costs and selling price we've talked about, sort of that's where we will be So that we're in a strong position, not to reduce our numbers and burn through them too quickly, but be in a strong position for that 2020 Our next Question comes from Davin Jagow from Barclays. Your line is now open. Good morning, everyone. Hope you're well. Just a couple from me, if I could, please. The first one is just around, well, the medium term volume targets. And just wondering if you could put some color around where your average site size has moved, I guess over the last 5 or 6 years, I mean, how much of a driver that is for meeting these new targets and how much is maybe in the majority of regions And then the second question is just around the 9 month score. Again, an Ingrid's part of the presentation You showed what that 9 month score was with some progression. Is that broadly reflective of where the score is for the wider group? And if not, can you give us some color on that, please? Yes. On the 9 month score, there's been a meaningful improvement over 6 months At group level as well as in Ingrid's Patch. And I think I'm right in saying, and I don't have a 2 data points in front of me, but I think I'm right in saying But if I look back at last year, for instance, the group was slightly ahead of the London Southeast Patch and still is today. For both of them moving forward materially. And we could a bit like the build quality measures, we continue to believe that It's important to be at a 5 star level on the shorter term survey. But actually, from our customers' point of view, it's Just as important, if not more so, deliver a good 9 month satisfaction score and a good underlying build quality Because otherwise, you risk just sort of window dressing on the shorter term perceptions. And I think, yes, if you get all 3 of them in a good place, And I think you're delivering overall a good customer service. And that's always been our focus rather than just focusing on any one measure. I think on outlook numbers and site size, as I said, the sort of acquisitions immediately After the equity raise, we're at a smaller average site size. That will brought down the average a bit. It's not made a massive difference, and it doesn't need to. I've said before, and I would repeat it, We have no problem with large sites. We think, yes, large sites, when you have them open as an outlet, give a very good level of consistency. Level of competition is less. We do believe you could sustain higher build rates and sales rates on them, and we're proving that sort of at the moment and higher margins. We just think we let that go a bit too far in 2019. It doesn't matter to me that the underlying sort of desire to make those sites work for us if in any sense wrong. So our average site size is probably around 290 at the moment. Tend to look at it on acquisitions rather than where it sits in the land bank, so that's why they're probably. And that's why I was slightly cautious about the number. But the key bit, which we have to focus on, is the right balance between outlets and sales rates, hence the strong focus on Outlook driven volume growth. And why ever so slightly grudgingly, I'm giving you an outlook growth forecast because it's really important to understand So that's a key part of what's going on in the business. Sort of we have a lot of outlook growth potential. And that fifty This is the outlook growth over the next 2 years isn't the end of it. Sort of as I say, I've put an element of contingency against that. What we did find is we will get those outlets, but some of them might be later. So that $50,000,000 reflects already a great quarter, but continued growth in outlets in later 2023 2024. And Gavin, the 9 month score for the group is on Page It's of the prelims. It's 80% compared to 76% for the first half last year, so 4% increase. Excellent. Okay. Thanks very much, gents. That concludes our Q and A session for today. I will now hand it back over to Pete Redfern for his closing remarks. Thank you. Thank you, everybody, for the time this morning and for the questions. Thank you, Ingrid, for your presentation and the extra depth that I hope you've given people. Look forward to our next update and catching up with you then and hopefully before too long in person. Thank you for joining the Taylor Wimpey Plc Half Year Results Presentation. This call has been recorded and will be available to listen on demand on Taylor Wimpey's Web later today. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.