Taylor Wimpey plc (LON:TW)
London · Delayed Price · Currency is GBP · Price in GBX 76.34
-2.66 (-3.37%)
Apr 29, 2026, 5:14 PM GMT
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Trading Update
Jan 14, 2020
Good morning and welcome to the Telewimpe Plc Trading Update Call. Today's conference call will be hosted by Telewimpe Chief Executive Peter Redfern and Group Finance Director, Chris Carney, followed by the Q And A. I would now like to turn the conference over to Pete Redfern, Chief Executive. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us. I think this is a fairly straightforward sort of update. Obviously, given the timing very early in 2020, it's more confirmation on 2019 and the first flavor of the year we've just come into.
But obviously early to give you sort of too much sense of how the market has started this year. Looking back at 2019 overall, I think the key thing you'll take away is overall in line. No surprises latter part of the year very much where we'd guide to sort of through the second half and probably slightly higher volume than you expected overall everything else very much sort of in line, but probably the strong order book, sort of even stronger than you might have expected And those sales rates up 19% year on year in half 2, even if I exclude bulk deals and in the low 20s, with them, I think particularly strong, which we'll come back to and give you a flavor of particularly where our objectives are for 2020, more than, more than necessarily where the market will be, which will touch on what we think it might look like, but it still, as I say, too early to say. I think sort of last quarter of the year, no major market changes sort of the cost pressures easing that we talked about sort of in the late autumn, we continued to see being that the same pattern and sales.
So by the time the election result happened too late in the year to see any meaningful change, people sort of the regulations we take after that would always be below But definitely finished the year post election with more of an air of confidence sort of across the sector with agents associated with our own sales people. And to the extent that we can judge it with customers coming through the door as well. I'm going to keep saying it's very early to say how that will go into 2020. I'll probably say an annoying number of times in sort of this overview and in the Q and A. Sort of it, but it is.
I think, if you look at the 1st sort of and we really have 1 trading week in January, positive. No surprises at sort of definitely more of a feel of confidence, but statistically, sort of not particularly meaning So I think there's potential for market sort of upside this year or last, but we'll be able to give you a much better feel. And I think in all honesty, we'll probably have a very good flavor for it by the time it comes to the prelims. I think what's most important in that though, what I'd probably the most important takeaways where our balances year on year. To a certain extent, through 2019, the way I would express it, we were managing for risk.
A lot of uncertainty, sort of particularly on cost, but actually in the market as well, sort of whilst trading continued to be strong and the sales rates were strong, sort of with the uncertainty of Brexit and the inevitability of a general election at some point of the year and the potential range of outcomes, sort of actually ending the year with a strong order book was always a very key goal for us and be able to get the volume growth and that strong order book, you know, sort of, we've exceeded our expectations. I think as we go into 2020, whilst risk hasn't, yeah, completely gone, so we still clearly have a sort of Brexit process to go through, we do feel it's materially reduced. And so I think the balance of where we're managing will switch and it's a more balanced risk and opportunity. And I think where we will see that most clearly and where we're most focused on the moment is the balance between sales rate and price. A strong order book and we'll come on to whether that's selling too far ahead or whether it's about right, but actually it gives us choices.
And so we would not be disappointed see sales rates slightly down in the first quarter, if we can make up that difference in price. And that's where our focus is. And I don't mean 3%, 4%, 5% on price, but actually in the sort of in this kind of market with balanced costs and price movements, every half a makes a big difference either way. So I think that's where our impetus will be and it will be slightly different to last year. So I'm not flagging the sales rates book be materially down, they may not, but actually sort of our balance and our focus is slightly more weighted towards price in this environment.
And that election results and the area of confidence that that has created, I think, gives us sort of the feeling that that's a, the right balance and b, that there potential for some price growth, which is quite important in our sort of chase to recover some margin. I think by kind of run through the other key areas, I touched briefly on costs, but a less pressure in late 2019 than we'd seen. It was particularly early in 2019 that we saw the material cost at least by the time it got to September, October. We haven't seen that change in very, very late on in the year. Obviously, again, too early to sort of call where that will be sort of strongly this year, but certainly start from a normal year overall on costs, sort of with a bit of, sort of upside against that potentially.
And very much again, I think our focus sort of is the important point that I want to put across through the last quarter of last year and going into early 2020. I think our cost focus is, sort of much stronger. And I would say it's slightly broader than just cost. It's cost and simplification. We've done a lot over the last 3 or 4 years on customer service, on quality.
We don't want to go backwards, but we want to do less new stuff in 2020. And make it easier for our people to focus on costs and efficiency and really delivering that customer service, that quality, but in as simple and efficient as way as possible, and changing less things. And I think that message is quite strong in the business at the moment and has landed very well. So I think both on price and cost, our focus is on self help in a world that we can't control, sort of rather than just on what the market can do for us. Not a lot to say on the land market.
I think sort of unchanged through the year. Again, I think a year in 2019 where we were managing slightly for risk, looking at the uncertainties politically and not wanting to go too deep. So our purchases were focused very heavily on strategic land. I think sort of we would like to see more potential outlets coming through. It's not a short term sort of pressure point and it's not deep concerning, but I think that sort of general reduction in outlets that we've seen over time is not something we want to see continue.
So making sure that we've got the right balance and investment between smaller and larger sites is going to be important to us. And if we get that right, I wouldn't be surprised to see sort of 2020 being a bit of a stronger land purchasing year. I would say at that point that I don't want you to over read that. I'm not talking about something that would impact materially on cash or our sort of dividend strategy like that, but definitely on balance after a year where the focus has been on risk, just skipping sort of edging forward a little bit more to build the outlets for 2021, 2022. And I think coming on to sort of an overview sort of outlook and I've touched on sort of several things.
We talked about half the end of the statement, of a half 2 weighting. I think, yes, we still got a bit of tailwind from 2019 on margin and on costs, which affects particularly, I think half 1. We have the sales in the order book, but we're still going to deliver properly on the completions and very committed to getting that build quality right and not putting the teams under too much pressure. We do think it will be a smoother half one as in not to wait it towards June, but sort of actually the weight of the completion should be will continue to be more towards the second half of the year. And our focus is on reducing that as we go through 2021, and 2022.
I think price, as I touched on, very key factor, probably the most important for us in 2020, so to be coming to the year with pretty clear set of targets. I'm not going to be explicit on what we think we can achieve because it's too early, but I'm sure when we come back to the prelims, we will cost control in our own gift on control, but a better environment than we saw last year. And areas where we can make, not massive, but meaningful reduction in overheads in efficiency. And as I say, particularly simplifying things for people and not giving them too much new stuff. And relatively stable volume, over 2019.
I think 5% was the top end of our growth expectations. It was higher than we came into the year expecting. Some of that was sort of that our strategy on sales rates on private sales was more effective. Some of it was that we consciously decided to take bulk sales given the overall market risk. So I think 2020 won't see continued volume growth, but I don't think it will be a meaningful shift either way.
Our focus will be on sort of maximizing the margin as we deal with the sort of 2019 cost follow on, but try and get price back and set ourselves up for 2021. Chris, anything next?
Yes, just a couple of figures from me. Firstly, I think at the time when there's a growing interest and appreciation of the importance of company culture from all stakeholders. I think it's worth noting that we were included in Glastore's top 50 places to work in the UK for the 3rd year running, which is pleasing. Secondly, just on Spain, 2019 was another strong year for us, an increase in demand from Eastern European buyers comfortably offset any Brexit related certainty from UK buyers. And although we'd expect operating margins to moderate over time from what was a very high level, of 28% in 2018, we still expect them to compare favorably to say UK margins in 2019.
And as we move into 2020, And then, and lastly, I suppose it would be remiss of me not to remind everybody that with 1,000,000 of net cash at the end of the year, we retain a very strong balance sheet and there is no change in our dividend plans for 2020 with the ordinary dividends of 2 1,000,000 plus 1,000,000 of special dividends in July subject to shareholders approval yielding a total dividend for 2020 at 1,000,000.
Thanks, Chris. If we can open up for questions, Nadia, please. Thank you.
The first question comes from the line of Badish Sia. Please ask your question.
Two questions from my side. First one is, have you seen any, if you can give you a reasonable flavor price increases or, sentimental change led price improvements post election, whether it's in the north or it's across regions or it's, is it broad based or it's only specific site specific? Have you done any kind of a blanket increase of prices. So if you can get a little more flavor on price improvements post election, that would be great. And the second one is on the outlets, appreciate your guiding outlet, average outlet will be flat this year compared to last year.
Considering that there'll be your intention to increase the land buying, would you expect that outlets to be much really higher in 2021 compared to 2020. And if you can link that to the impending changes in the help to buy a program from March 21. So how do you want to basically balance that out?
Thank you. I mean,
as I touched on in terms of price movements post election, what's actually happening in the marketplace, it's too early to say. Sort of the feel is positive, but it will be wrong, to give you too strong or confident view of how that plays out over time, because it's the evidence that didn't there either way. I wouldn't expect it to be sort of you've had a month since the election of which at least 3 weeks to period where active sales are always very low because of thick time and time of year in calendar wise. So what I can touch on, but I won't go too deeply into this. Our own plans on price.
We have made a almost entirely across the board, change to price from the 1st January. Not going to tell you the exact amount because I think we don't know how much of that will land and that will vary geographically and that's how we would tend to do it, but that's certainly pushing harder than we were, 12 months ago. And largely because we drove the environment is there and a little bit because feel on the balance, as I touched on before, on the balance sheet sales rate and price last year, we were switched slightly the other way. So a bit of that is making up some ground. But it isn't just a case by case piece.
I think the most important bit of that, but the hardest piece to call is what happens in London than the southeast. I think there is you obviously saw Sabol's comments yesterday. There is more potential sort of upside in terms of recovery in London and the Southeast. But it really is too early to say. And I think it will take a little bit longer, but the air is more positive there.
Think it will take a little bit more time for people to really kind of think, yes, actually there is enough certainty now for me to take a big So I think it's reasonable to say it will be more positive than 2019, but the degree to which it's more positive will it's sort of far too early to say. I think for me personally, I'm more interested in what happens in London and the Southeast in terms of price than anything else because I think it's It's a big swing factor. That part of the business for us has sort of been relatively tough for the last 18 months to 2 years. And it's probably if you split things out geographically, is a sort of more meaningful headwind. And so the impact is sort of more significant.
I think on outlets, do we expect outlets to be tierily higher at the end of the year? No. We just want to make sure that we have the opportunity to maintain and grow outlook as we go through the next 2 to 3 years. And it's not that, come back to your risk question about how to buy, it's not that we think, oh, right. Election, that means it's time to go deep into land.
We just have to push harder and we touched on this in the last half of last year of making sure we get the balance of size between smaller sites, which help our outlet members more and longer sites, which help our margins more, right. And smaller sites have certain extra risks, but certain extra risk mitigation as well. So it's getting that balance right. And if I could get a bit growth in small sites and that means a bit more land spend, but still see through the higher margin strategic purchases, that's where it might be that we would spend a bit more on land. But the risk element of that is not significantly different.
We are very focused on the risk of Help 5, but that's about making sure we've got the right product on those sites. We've got the right timing for the product we bring forward through the period of price caps and the initial period after health bias remains. And it's also about working out what are the choices our customers have gotten, how we mortgage providers and government can help them with that.
Thank you.
The next questions come from the line of Ainsley Lammin. Please ask your question.
Hi, good morning. And just two quick ones for me. Good morning. First of all, could you just remind us of the bulk sales you did in 2019? And I wondered if you'd have a kind of estimate of the impact on the net margin of those bulk sales?
And then secondly, just coming back on the kind of land market and confidence post the election. Have you seen, I know it's early days in all the comments, but just in London, is there a bit more activity in the land market, just interested in your views there, what you may have seen in expectations specifically for London Land?
And I'll pass the first question to Chris, but I'll take the second one just to give him a second. The I still think it's too early to see any movement on land in London sort of deals that were lined up for the end of the year sort of, happened and I'm not just talking about our deals. I think at the sector overall. People who might have been sort of waiting for election results as a swing factor went ahead with those deals as far as I can see in the marketplace. So you can point to that as a sign and that probably covers somebody like Savills very strongly in terms of their perspective.
And I also think you see a meaningful change in inquiries from the sort of both overseas and local buyers of higher end of London product, but it's really sort of it's a feeling and rather than big sort of, yeah, sort of movements overall And I think it will take time before you see London land really get back to some sort of normality. Because I think we've had the political, sort of a market uncertainty, but we still have the planning and sort of more local political uncertainty which I think is sort of, it's still an issue around Central London and getting sites to be truly viable. So I would I think we certainly will be talking about through the course of the year. And I sort of hope by the time we get to the half year, I would give you more certainty, but I certainly I'm not expecting us to be making material Central London Land purchases, for instance, in the 1st 6 months of the back of an election result. I just think renews one of the shadows.
I think what will also be interesting sort of in the budget process is to see if anything happens STamp GT because obviously that's one of the other big shadows that has been on the higher end London market and that will also have an impact on that. But I think that in the general market, including the Southeast and more normal London product, I think we could see sort of a positive effect kind of develop and be measurable over the course of the next 2 to 3 months. I think in London land and the higher end, it's a bit slower, but I may be wrong on that.
Yes. And on both deals, Ainsley, I haven't got the exact numbers at hand, but to give you a feel for it, through the course of the year, I think there were probably in the range of something like 10 to 15 both fields done. Anywhere from like 10 units to over 100 units. And the impact on margin is is obviously it varies quite significantly from deal to deal. At the end of the year, I think in the November trading update, we referenced a couple of bulk deals in Central London where there was an opportunity there for us to liquidate some stock.
And that did have an impact on margin, but actually that some of the other bulk deals earlier in the year You'll recall we did at the point of land acquisition that had absolutely no impact on the margin. So it's it's probably not quite as much as you might think it would be.
Sure. And just to clarify for 2020 at this point, you wouldn't really expect any bulk deals the need for any given your focus a bit more on margin?
I think we'd expect less. I think it'd be a strong statement because certainly we look at I don't think we look at something, oh no, we wish we hadn't done that. There's a lot where you've got large sites and actually the main aim is sort of the bulk days. One of the reasons they tend to push up the order book a bit is because, they don't sacrifice your short term completions. So, you know, they've actually where we've got large sites and a good strategic land bank where we're contemplating those lifestyles, there is still a very strong logic sort of, doing them.
So to say, we wouldn't expect any would be wrong. To say the balance and risk opportunity is slightly different than we'd expect less is a much sort of more reasonable statement, I think.
Great. Thanks very much.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Will Jones.
Good morning, guys. 3 for me as well, if I could please. The first was just around, I guess, outlets just reflecting on the decline in the numbers last year? How of, I think, 20 or so on an average basis, how would you split those? Do you think if you're broadly speaking between what was in control, I.
E. Was a function of either your higher sales rate through the year than you anticipated or maybe that, as you say, lack of land spend versus say, things like planning delays. Just trying to get a feel for to what extent you control the phase on that number this year? And I guess within that, how quickly do you think you get up to the million number? That you expect to average versus the 2 40 today?
The second area was just around margin. Obviously, pricing build costs are going to be 2 big inputs to that, which it's too early to call, but when you look at other moving parts, I guess, mix issues around the quality of land coming through year on year, London's impact or not? Just is there any of the kind of factors that you kind of have visibility on at this stage around March and you could help us with And then I guess the final one was just around the cash flow side of things. It's probably too early, but do you have any idea of what your cash land spend number for last year? And any idea on how that may move this year?
And the other stuff, I think we had the guidance on the extra from November, but provision payments, again, just anything you can help us with in terms of the cash moving parts as well?
Yes. I'll let Chris take a cash flow question in a second. On outlets, I would actually say, this has been true for years, but I've always felt uncomfortable when I see sort of, our peers kind of, complaining about planning and its impacts on, on outlets because if you don't understand the planning impacts on outlets, then you don't really know what the business is about if you see what I mean. So I'd always resist complaining about that. And actually, I'd say it will be completely unfair for me to complain about that this year.
Plan process remains hard. We have delays that we didn't expect, but actually we're forecasting them very well. So our out of the opening timings, are very much in line with what we expect probably and we tracked it more closely during 2019. So it is more to do with things that are in our control. And actually it's more to do with, I think, land purchase and large sites versus small sites.
Than it is to do with sales rates and closing outlets more quickly. If we were taking bulk sales to close out outlets, sacrificing price, but not then having the choice in the marketplace of having that out. I think that would be a strategy. Those book sales are on large sites where we have not percent yet. So we're not closing that outlet because of those sales.
So it's in our control. But if you look at the land spend piece, if you look at 2018, 2019, for instance, the balance of our land spend have already touched on weighted towards large sites, weighted towards strategic land weighted towards higher future margins, but not weighted, therefore, towards giving us more outlets. And also geographically, because of the uncertainty in London and to a certain extent the wider Southeast market, if you looked over the last 2 years that I had sort of purchases, they've been weighted away from sort of London and the Southeast where site sizes tend to be smaller and therefore they proportionally push up your outlet numbers. Now I don't regret any of those things, but sort of you still got to look at the Atlas and think I don't want the number to sort of continue to decline. So if we kind of see a bit more certainty and potentially in the Southeast and as I say over the pulled 6 months sort of then that way it pushes us towards slightly more smaller sites.
And we've been actively pushing our teams to look at a broad broader mix of sites. Then that's what I'd like to see happen overall. So I think the outlet movements, it isn't that we are kind of getting disappointed because we're losing 5 openings in sort of a month or sort of a quarter. That's just generally not happening. Sort of we are we've got much better at forecasting than allowing for the planning delays that happen.
But it is on the line, we've got to make sure we've got the broader mix of sites. So it's fighting a balance. If you get there, If we can get that long term sales rate sort of balanced, right, and we want to continue to maintain a sales rate, which is above the sector norm and above history, there's nothing I've said on that pricevolume balance that moves away from that. It's shading it a bit. So then we don't need as many outlets and actually bigger, higher value outlets, where there is less competition than the right place for us to be, but it's balanced.
And I just don't want that balance to push too far that way. On margins, I mean, you've got the main moving parts. There is the 2019 cost movements that impact on 20. There are some bulk sales in 2019 that will come through in the first half of twenty twenty and those 2 sort of affect the first half, second half weighting. Our cost savings sort of come through sort of a bit in the first half, but actually more weighted towards the second half inevitably because of timing.
But the big movement is about price. Sort of can we, and can we squeeze our price sort of over the course of the next to 3 months, because if we can, it impacts on this year, again, particularly in the second half completions, but sort of, I think the potential is there. A way that it wasn't during the course of last year and the focus is there. But that's what we'll be updating you on with the prudence, I think.
Right. And as you reflect on that experience last year, I think you said sequentially you were pretty flat in the first half. Would that be obviously awesome, it had weak London, the Southeast, would you say group wide you were flat again in the second half? So it was a year of no movement?
I would have said so. Yes, I think so the small local movements, but overall, very yes, to the level of experimental measurement error, flat. And I think I'd be disappointed if this year was flat. But what was it's too early to call is sort of what that number is.
Yes. And just going back to your question on cash will, the net land spend in 2019 was around GBP 680,000,000. So around about GBP 100,000,000 more than 2018, a bit early to be giving you year end cash guidance, but folks, I'll aim to give you something on that at the prelims and as ever land will be a key element of that. Touching briefly on 2020, I previously mentioned the fact that we have 2 extra UK Corporation tax payments in the first half amounting to about 1,000,000 and those together with about 1,000,000 of spend on the exceptional provisions amount to about GBP 120,000,000 of one time cash flows in 2020. And that alone would suggest a net reduction in the cash the end of 2020 compared to 2019, but I'll give you more of a feel for the quantum of that in February when we see how trading has gone in the 1st couple of months.
Got you. Great. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Gregor Kuglitsch. Please ask your question.
Hi. Good morning. I've got a couple of questions. So just sorry to come back to the margin, just to be crystal clear, are you suggesting given the where the order book is? Obviously, you've sold forward quite a lot, as you said, that in the first half, your margins will be down year on year.
Is that what you're kind of hinting at? And On a similar note, as we think about the year as a whole, appreciate the pricing variable is obviously too early to call, and still very early. But if you have a similar situation as last year where pricing is flat, are you suggesting you'd be down? So in other words, you need some price increases, to hold the line on margin, just to sort of get a sense
where the margin is? Yes. So I think, on the first one in the first half, I think yes, that is what we're saying, but actually, and it's not so much about selling forward, although that obviously means we know what the price is more or less. But because we have the cost inflation in 2019, sort of been sort of that first those first half numbers and we know more is, then yes, I think we are saying that the margin would be down year on year. I think for the full year, what was If, again, same sort of answer it away, we've got cost inflation that came through last year, which isn't fully annualized, we've got cost inflation that we expect will be significantly reduced in 2020, but are obviously not a full year impact And so if you saw nothing on price, then we can offset some of that by our actions.
But then yes, you would expect to see margins down. Some sort of I think mathematically that's absolutely right. But I think there is a lot, but I think there is an awful lot of potential that the second half margin actually is up sort of certainly on the first half but also up year on year.
Okay. That's clear. Thank you. And then if you could just give us sort of anecdotally what you've procured, on sort of the major cost. I'm thinking bricks, blocks, tiles, and then perhaps in the key labor items.
I mean, just to give us a little bit of a sense I don't know if you're kind of at this point securing new 6, 9 months contracts or whatever, how the inflation rates are trending on some of the items?
Yes. So I would say, and I'm not going to get into specifics, sort of, but overall, I would say, yes, we've obviously been sort of generally talking about a cost inflation environment of, sort of 3% to 4% through the last 3 or 4 years, which then picked up to 4% to 5% last year and then sort of softened again a bit during the course of the year and ended at about 4.5 I think if I were to sort of give that same number today, you're probably about 3%. So you're at the and then when I said it normal, we're at the low end of what we've seen as normal. On cost. And I'd say there's probably a bit of upside against that and probably being slightly cautious in how I'm reporting what's happening.
But I think on materials, it's more like 1 to 2. And on wages, it's more like 2 to 3. So sort of right now, 3% maybe a little bit lower.
Okay. Thank you. That's very helpful.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Charlie Campbell. Please ask your question.
A
couple of questions from me, if I can. So first question was just kind of just trying to square the order book with the comments on the waiting for the year. Is that because there's quite a lot of maybe affordable in there that comes through in the second half? Is that what's there or is the comment really that actually the year is just less second half weighted than last year, but still second half weighted. Just to sort of clarify that.
And then secondly, I know you sort of beginning, it is early days. But, so I was just really curious about some of the sort of leading indicators, I. E, thinking about things like website traffic, visitors on the ground or inquiries? Just any sort of quantum you can give us on how that's moved I suppose in the month since the election?
Yes. So, on the order book, there is a higher proportion of affordable in the order book at the end of this year, but that's not the sort of main reason for the growth. So I think the private order book is up 12%. So the audible order book is up a bit more, but both are raw material. And so yes, that doesn't that means you can't mathematically take the order book and proportionately work it through, but there is still meaningful growth and sort of, but we have to we are sold slightly further ahead.
We have to build those sort of homes and build them properly. So it's about matching the sort of building the sales. And I think I said I would touch on it, then I didn't sort of to what it when you can be selling too far ahead particularly from a customer service point of view, we were one of the first to say, look, if we sell too far ahead, then, we create more and certain for our customers if we're not careful and more likelihood the date is will shift. I think what we felt during the course of last year that having invested heavily in build process and quality we are far more confident that we can execute our build programs to our original plan. Our out openings are really good outlet openings.
Now that may sound like a tri comment, but it means when we open, we know what we're going to do, we have all the information the plan is often running. It feels far more controlled. So that gives you the confidence of that from a service point of view. Of course, you always have a sort of a price versus risk dynamic in that. And if prices were increasing by 6% or 7% a year, then become the meaningful trade off.
If, say, this year, prices increased by 2%, the impact of selling ahead and or 2 months is academic, if you see what I mean. So although at this point in time, when we've had a year last year, where prices were under pressure in a year where we hope to be better, you kind of think, well, maybe the balances and right, actually, generally, I think a longer order book gives you the confidence to sell well and both on price and from a customer service point of view. So I don't think we're losing out a lot from that, but I wouldn't want to say it get much, much bigger. So I think, you know, sort of the balance is about right. But sorry, I missed the other part of the question, Chris,
you indicated.
So sorry, those indicators, yes. Yeah, I think, generally positive, but not big swings, but you'd never see big swings in visitors and website queries and things in December. So and actually, leading cases were all very good through 2019. So they all look positive, but they haven't not looked positive. It's just that what we are seeing is when people come through the door, the conversation we have is more confident.
And I think sort of, I would expect, of course, the next couple of months' cancellation rates to be a little bit lower, which makes a bit of a difference to net sales rate. I would say, so all of those things are better, but I think it will be wrong to say suddenly a switch is turned on. Sort of actually last year, it wasn't bad, but actually just trying to grind our price was tough. I think that environment feels better and we can sort of see that from our early conversations but it is really, really early.
Yes. Yes. Congrats me
for try. But yes, thank you very much and good luck with the year to come. Yes. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of John Bell. Please ask your question.
Good morning, Pete, Chris, Debbie. 3, I think I've got. First one is on customer satisfaction the last time you updated as it was seeming quite likely you dropped down to 4 star or be at cigarette paper below 5 star. I'm just keen for your updated thoughts on that. 2nd one was on London.
I wonder whether you could just update us at postmark on sales rates and prices. And then third one finally on Help to Buy Regional Price Capps. There was some discussions some time ago about some lobbying, maybe to iron out some regional inconsistencies. Is that still going on? Any traction?
Anything like that?
Thank you. Yes. On customer satisfaction, I think no change, unfortunately, on 20, sort of, on the year ending in October 20 19. I think we will be at 89 point sort of 4 or 5. So sort of just under the sort of 5 star rating.
Yes, that's partly a widened the signaling thing that it's frustrating, but, I think that's highly likely. We have about 500 completions in the new customer care year. So we still not got full percent results for last year, just where the timing works, that's 100 and new, and they're at 5 star. And yes, the trend, as I've said before, has been at 5 star, but I think we will dip below that sort of level. I'll I don't know if Chris has got post up to date post market data.
He tends to, so I'll let him Yes.
So we sold 83 units at postmark in 2019, and that makes a sales rate, I think, 1.92 since we opened there. So that's pretty pleasing.
And I think on regional price gaps, you may remember me saying thought, we specifically did business have not lobbied on regional price gaps. And I have a view with how we deal with government that when they know what they are trying to do and they give it and what they do make sense to what they're trying to achieve, then lobbying to change it isn't particularly effective and helpful for a long term relationship. I think the price gaps look anomalous if you look at it from a developer's point of view. From a government point of view, what they're trying to do is stay towards certain parts of the market and therefore they are conscious regionally. So we have not lobbied for that.
I'm aware that conversation happens as far as I know that conversation nerves sort of fizzled out and there isn't a change, but I haven't argued for one because I think sort of what they are doing is reasonable and it's up to us to manage it. I think what will be interesting, and it's the one bit where although you know I have a long term view that we should be finding a way out of how by. I do think having a kind of much smaller in terms of the volume of customers that it can affect but a bridging piece of Help to Buy post 2023. I think as we get closer, I think that will be an interesting conversation with government. And mean, so they did vary that maybe is means tested and is focused on customers who are not just first time buyers, but maybe marginal first time buyers.
And sort of it's a bridge between affordable housing and private housing. So maybe 10% to 15% of the volume of how to buy not 50% or 60 that I think that I would be happy to, sort of lobby for because I think that will be long term sustainable and healthy from a market point of view as a bridge. Very good. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Sam Colin. Please ask the question.
Ahead. Yes, good morning, everyone. Just one left really for me. I'm just kind of following on from Will's question on outlets. Really.
I guess if you do see a I'll take your point 2 weeks into the year, if you do see a volume recovery across the whole market as we move through January, February, March, how quickly can you guys respond to that? I'd take a point that you want to take price over volume, but at some point, clearly, if the market does recover more rapidly, you want to take volume also. Yeah, how quickly can you increase the outlet numbers across the group?
I think in terms of increasing the outlet numbers, in a meaningful way, we can't immediately anybody else. It's just if you have outlets that you are able to open in Abbott, then you open them. If you're able to you might there might be a delay that you consciously choose to take about a few weeks as you get the details and the information, right? Yes, we'll get your sales sort of presence in the right place, but you don't have outless waiting in the wings. I could see that might be slightly different for a very London centric developer at the moment who maybe had a few sites multiple that they could then open up again.
But in a more general sense, sort of, but what we can do and what I think we are better placed than anybody else to do and last year to a certain extent that testing this is increase our capacity on individual sites. And those same large sites, which can be a challenge to average output numbers, are an asset and letting you be flexible with the market. And that's why we wanted to test the higher sales rates and what the balance was. If I look at the last 5 years, there's been a missed opportunity because we didn't have the control over our build to be able to step up by 20% over the course of the year, feel like we can do it properly, manage quality, manage customers, resource it. And I feel we are much better placed to be able to do that.
Now it still takes 6 months for that to have an impact on completions at least, but still, we're we can actually make that shift quite quickly and impact on half 2 next year and into 2021, whereas in the past, actually stepping up build on individual sites, but I'm very nervous because it will tend to come with quality problems and real management issues. And I feel much more confident that we have, the control and the production mentality to be able to get that right.
Thank next question comes from the line of Amigala. Please ask your question.
Good morning, guys. Just one question from me. On the land bank, I was wondering if you could give us some comment on the on the plot cost to revenue ratio at the end of the year. Were there any meaningful shifts as a result of the strategic conversions that you're seeing? And on the broader land market, I hear your comments in the London and the Southeast, but on the broader land market, do you see more competition tightening the intake margins in this space?
So I might need to get you repeat the second one. On the first one, I don't think yes, because we are not going to fully process the account, I don't think we give you a specific number on plot cost to revenue ratio. But I certainly don't expect it to have moved significantly over the course of 2019. And certainly, generally, it has remained below by long term historic standards and a combination of the strategic land and the overall land environment will help to continue to make it do so. And sorry, the question on London Land, I missed the question.
My question was really on the intake margins in the broader land market. Do you see that tightening over the course of 2020 to an extent?
No, sorry, it wasn't balanced at all. No, I don't particularly expect that to tighten. I think sort of and in a way, the earlier question about Help to Buy and Risk is part that. Whilst I think, inevitably there is a, sort of more of an error of confidence in the market overall, and that includes therefore the land market. I don't think the dynamic that we've seen for the last 10 years, which is what's driven that kind of higher intake margin, lower block costs to revenue.
I don't think that's changed, sort of, and I don't think it's about to change. It's not something. And the same way as I don't suddenly think that with a general election result, somebody turned the switch on the market. I think that is true on land as well. It is a a more positive environment.
But actually, I think it might actually help with all intangemargins, particularly in London, because as we've touched on before, actually, there is a level below which land sellers won't go that the level in London where alternative use starts to kick in over residential. And that's made buying land at reasonable margins very difficult in sort of Central London for a little while. And so actually seeing a more positive market environment will actually help that because it will I think sort of helped residential compared to certain other land uses and it will kind of help the maths on-site. So I don't that's not me flagging the margins. We'll go up materially on purchase, but I don't see that we've sensitive an era where there's a meaningful sort of extra degree of pressure.
Thank you.
That concludes our question and answer session for today. I will now hand over back to Pete Redfan for the closing remarks. Thank you.
Thank you, and thank you, everybody. Not many extra remarks. To, seeing you with the prelims when we will be updating you on really the key 1st 2 months of trading. Thank you very much.
Thank you for joining the Tailwind TPLC Trading Update Call. This call has been recorded and will be available available to listen on demand on tailwind peace website later today. Thank