Good morning, everybody, and many thanks for joining us. I recognize it's been a very busy morning already, so it's nice to see so many of you here with us this morning. I'm Louise Beardmore, Chief Executive of United Utilities, and this morning I have Phil Aspin, our CFO, and James Bullock, our Regulation and Compliance Director, with me. As you will be aware, in December, Ofwat published its final determination, and since then we've been working through the detail and understanding the overall package and what it means for our customers, our communities, our suppliers, and our shareholders. I'm really pleased to announce that having completed our assessment, the Board has decided to accept the FD.
This means that we can now get on with delivering the step change that everybody wants to see, driving improvements in services for customers, the environment, and at the same time underpinning the significant economic growth here in the North West. This morning we wanted to give you an opportunity to ask any questions you may have, but first of all I want to take you through some specifics on the technical aspects of the determination and where we've seen improvements since the DD. Also, Phil is then going to give you an update on our financial framework, and James will go through what this means for customers in terms of outcomes and bills. I'll then finish by touching on what we intend to cover at our Capital Markets Day in the summer, where we'll go through in more detail our AMP8 program.
At the end of the call, we're obviously happy to take any questions that you may have. You might remember that back in the summer we represented on five key areas following the draft determination, and I'm really pleased to have seen positive movement across all of them. Starting with TOTEX, we provided Ofwat with a suite of robust evidence to support our costs, particularly on our CSO program, and we've seen a considerable step up in our TOTEX allowance as a result. This sees us almost doubling our investment program over the next five years to around GBP 13 billion, up from around GBP 7 billion in the current AMP, and in line with the GBP 12.7 billion adaptive plan that we have consistently guided to since we first published the plan.
Next on the gated mechanism, I'm really pleased that Ofwat has accepted all of our representations, moving all four of the large schemes into the enhancement program and placing one of the new smaller projects into the gated mechanism at our request. We've also seen some meaningful changes to ODIs. James is going to touch on this in a little bit more detail later on, but at a high level we've seen real improvements to over 40% of our targets and an increase in the number of risk protections around them. The improvements to the structure of the outturn adjustment mechanism are also beneficial too. Ofwat has also made adjustments to reflect a more realistic cash flow position, for example, by increasing the allowance for business rates.
Lastly, the cost of capital was a key representation for many in the industry, and we've seen a 31 basis points uplift since the draft, with positive changes to both the cost of equity and the cost of debt. Looking at TOTEX in a bit more detail, you can see on this slide how the level of investment has evolved. The draft determination confirmed a significant step up in enhancement expenditure compared to both AMP6 and AMP7, and we were asked to provide more information on the remaining elements. We provided detailed bottom-up analysis on our costs and in particular on the investment drivers behind our CSO program, and I'm really pleased that Ofwat accepted a lot of that deep dive evidence, resulting in an uplift from the draft of approximately GBP 2.4 billion.
With 95% of our TOTEX approved, we're now able to progress delivery of the things that matter most to our customers and in line with that adaptive plan. We're going to be making a significant investment to reduce spills from storm overflows. With the biggest CSO investment in the industry, we'll be reducing spills from storm overflows by over 60% in the decade to 2030. We're making improvements to our treatment processes, installing biological treatment rather than chemical treatment at some of our treatment works, and not only does this solution improve our environmental impact, but it also enables more efficient ongoing base cost too, and the program will see significant upgrades to some of our treatment works. For example, our wastewater treatment works at Davyhulme will see investment of approximately GBP 620 million, a huge capital investment spanning over both AMP8 and AMP9.
As I've touched on, some of the project will be starting in AMP8 will span beyond the next five-year period. There are a number of long-term investment drivers at play here, which will see underpinning growth in the sector out to 2050. These include evolving expectations around environmental performance, asset replacement, and resource adequacy, with a particular focus on supporting government priorities around housing and economic infrastructure growth, and of course adapting to climate change. As a result, we're going to see a significant uplift to our long-term asset base growth, as you can see from the trajectory of the graph on the slide. Over the next five years, we're estimating an annual growth rate of 7%, up from our current rate of 4% per annum.
As we step into this long-term growth environment, we are strongly positioned financially with an investment plan that is deliverable without any recourse to equity in AMP8. With that in mind, I'll hand you over to Phil, who will take you through financing and returns.
Good morning, everyone. With the assessment of the FD now complete, I'm pleased to announce our updated financial framework for AMP8. Capital investment is forecast to be approximately GBP 8.5 billion across the five years to March 2030, representing an uplift of around GBP 5 billion from the current regulatory period. As a result of the growth in our asset base, we'll increase from the current run rate of 4.4%-5% per annum to around 7%. Our progressive inflation-linked dividend policy remains in place for the fourth regulatory period running. Finally, we continue to benefit from our strong balance sheet. The AMP8 program is fully equity funded, and we continue to target gearing in a range of 55%-65%, resulting in target credit ratings of Baa1 and BBB+ .
Next, turning to funding, when we submitted our business plan, we set out why we were confident in our ability to fund the record levels of investment needed in AMP8. While the scope and timing of projects have evolved, the principles remain true today. Our balance sheet continues to demonstrate financial strength with gearing at 60%. Our liquidity position is strong, having already raised around GBP 2.6 billion to fund AMP8. We have liquidity extending out into 2027, and we recognize that the value in stable, consistent financing policies and RCV gearing has remained well within our target range for the past three AMPs. Finally, our dividend remains an important feature of the investment proposition, providing valuable income to our institutional and retail shareholders on a semi-annual basis.
Since 2010, our dividend has been increasing at least in line with inflation, and I'm pleased to announce today that we will continue to grow the dividend in line with CPIH into the future. And with that, I'll hand over to James.
Thank you, Phil. You'll remember that Ofwat made it clear that it would be receptive to feedback on the outcomes package after the draft determination, and we have seen some significant changes as a result. There have been positive movements across the board with more achievable targets, increased risk protections, and more reflective incentive rates, and most notably for us, we successfully secured a company-specific target on storm overflows, starting at a 26.4 spills on average target in year one. Ofwat's also accepted the evidence we put forward on internal sewer flooding performance. That results in a company-specific target and performance range that's appropriate for our regional circumstances in the North West, and finally, the benchmark UKCSI measure for customer experience has now been adjusted, resulting in a more balanced risk profile alongside some opportunities for outperformance on D-MeX and BR-MeX. We're a company that consistently delivers top quartile performance.
As you can see from the chart on the slide, we've achieved approximately 80% of performance commitments in every year of AMP7. We've also had continuously strong performance across our measures of customer experience, and we've been driving hard to improve services even further. We're well positioned to step into the challenges that AMP8 will bring, and in the meantime, we're already building on our track record in order to deliver even stronger performance going forward. Turning now to customer bills and affordability. The good news for customers is that despite the record levels of investment we're going to see, the resultant increase in bills is still not one of the larger increases in the sector, and that's true whether you look at it in absolute or percentage terms.
We serve some of the most deprived communities in England and Wales, and here at UU, affordability support has always been a priority, and we're encouraged to see the government taking steps through the Water Special Measures Bill to introduce a national social tariff, including the facility for cross-regional subsidies. We're putting in place a sector-leading affordability package totaling GBP 525 million, enabling us to support one in six households in the region with their water bill up to 2030. That's some 590,000 customers. Now I'll hand back over to Lou to wrap up.
Great, thanks James. Look, before we open up to questions, I just thought I'd spend a minute summarizing the key points from today. The plan we've put forward and have now accepted delivers on the things that matter to customers, communities, and the environment here in the North West, and we're really pleased to see the significant representations we made between the DD and the FD reflected in the final package that we have accepted. We can fund this plan without any recourse to equity, representing great value for shareholders. The plan underpins 7% growth over the AMP. Our CapEx has more than doubled versus AMP7, and we have confirmed our dividend position, which sees it growing in line with inflation. We are extremely well positioned to deliver.
I have a strong executive team in place with some great new capability that is keen and committed to drive that step change, and you will have a chance to meet with the team as we outline our plans in the summer at our Capital Markets event on the 19th of June, and I really hope you can join us so that you can meet them in person and find out more. Thanks ever so much for your time today. I'm sure you're bound to have some questions, and we're happy to take some of those on the call right now. Thank you.
Okay, thank you. Thank you very much, Lou, and thank you all for joining us at such short notice, and I appreciate that a lot of you might be travelling, so thank you for dialing in. Let's get straight into questions. First up, we've got Sarah Lester from Morgan Stanley.
Thank you very much, and apologies. I am actually out and about today, so no video, but a quick question, please. On your total expenditure profile for the next five years, so year five has a noticeable step down versus year four, and whilst the numbers may differ a little bit from your business plan, you did have a similar profile there, so clearly it's intentional on your part. So just wondering, please, if you can elaborate on the rationale for that profile, and of course there's the broader context that AMP9 is likely to be a big spending AMP for you as well. Thank you very much.
Hi Sarah, thanks very much for the question. I think what's really important is all the way along this plan, I've talked about GBP 12.7 billion and that adaptive plan with an eye to what was coming in AMP9 and what made most sense in terms of sequential investment. You're absolutely right, the TOTEX investment grows, it's significant as we go through the first sort of three and a half, four years, and there's two reasons for that. One is I wanted to ensure that that investment was going in the ground quickly to enable better ODI performance and increased resilience. And secondly, one of the things that we were really successful, and we were the only company that was able to do that, is we were able to secure transitional investment for the combined sewer overflow program from AMP8 into the back end of AMP7.
So it won't surprise you that we got that capital in the ground quickly, so it enabled ODI returns and better performance, but also with an eye to AMP9, because actually one of the things that Ofwat has welcomed and that we sought to seize on is the opportunity for transitional investment, and you're absolutely right, that's the strategy that we'll be going at as we go through. But right now what we're focused on is delivering that TOTEX program, getting that infrastructure in the ground quickly so we can deliver that operational performance that everybody wants to see.
Great, thanks, Sarah. Pev, over to you.
Thank you, team, and thank you for taking my questions. I was wondering if you're in a position to give an early view of where you expect RoRE or a range of RoRE over AMP8 and how we should think about that, and if you give any color, a split on financing ODIs, and do you expect that the first year of AMP8 should be a year where you're in net ODI reward, or do you think that that's going to be a more back-end loaded profile? Thank you.
Okay, thanks, thanks Pev. So I suppose I'll pick up on ODIs, and then I'll hand over to Phil to pick up on RoRE. I think, look, we are really pleased to see where we've been able to get the ODI package to. There's been big movements between DD and FD, so 40% movement in terms of targets, and for us here at UU, I think specifically two things to really draw your attention to. We've been able to negotiate company-specific targets on internal sewer flooding and CSO spills. That's hugely important for us because that was where we had significant downside risk, so over GBP 100 million worth of movement on that downside risk, which has been time really, really well spent. I'm not going to provide any guidance for the AMP.
It's too early to give a view in terms of what that delivery looks like, but obviously we're going to provide a one-year position as part of that that may result when we get into the capital markets position later on in the summer. But I think what's fair to say is from an ODI perspective, it's a much more balanced package. There's some stuff in there where United Utilities really excels, and we've seen improved mitigation that was to the downside that is company-specific, and I think that puts us in a really strong position to deliver, and it won't surprise you to know that we've got our heads down focus on how we can make sure we deliver against that ODI basket. Phil, in terms of RoRE?
Thanks, Lou, and morning, Pev. Yeah, sort of really, really excited about the delivery through AMP8. We've got the capital markets day scheduled in the summer. That's when we're going to get into a lot of detail around all the delivery plans and the performance in a very robust and comprehensive way. So we'll be giving RoRE guidance when we get to that point in the summer. It is fair to say that RoRE position will be very much underpinned and supported by a very strong financing outperformance position, which is very much our sort of track record of the past. So looking forward to telling you all about it in the summer.
Thank you.
Thanks, Pev. Robin, over to you.
Hi, good morning all. Just a couple of questions for me. First one on the decision not to raise equity under AMP8. Does that mean that you are potentially looking at equity-linked debt instruments such as hybrids or mandatory convertibles? So that's my first question. The second question, on your goal of maintaining a solid IG rating, am I right to understand that this is under the current sector risk assessments by all rating agencies, i.e., if S&P were to downgrade its assessment of the sector and the regulatory construct, the targeted rating here for S&P would be BBB flat as opposed to BBB+ ? Thank you.
Great, thank you. Look, I think we've been really consistent all the way through that we can confidently fund this FD without any recourse to equity. The FD has landed in line with the adaptive plan that we've talked about all the way through. If you remember, I kept talking about GBP 12.7 billion, and that's been consistent since October 23, and that position remains the same today. We're starting from a real position of strength, so 60% at September 24 and liquidity out to FY 2027. So we're really comfortable with our target gearing range of 55%-65%. I'll hand you over to Phil to pick up on the specifics around rating agencies.
Okay, morning. Hi, Robin. Firstly, just to say equity-linked debt, no plans to be raising equity-linked debt. We're very confident with the capital structure we have and very comfortable that we're going to be operating within our gearing range of 55%-65%. In respect of your question about S&P, it is fair to say that the cash flow metrics are significantly improved into AMP8 through the determination and show a very decent amount of headroom against the S&P position. So you're right, S&P still have to conclude on their actions and where they're heading in terms of a sector position, but I'm confident of our performance in the past and our position in the sector, and I don't see that's likely to result in any action on UU.
Terrific, thank you very much, Robin. Dom, you're up. And we.
There we go.
Turning it now.
Okay, thank you. Thanks for the presentation. A couple of questions from me. Firstly, I'm intrigued. Could you give us some color on your board debate that you had when you were recommending approving or not referring this plan? Are there any particular areas or sticking points that you discussed that were of concern to you, and could you share that with us? And the second question I've got is, I think you're guiding to 7% RAB growth going out to 2030 compounded. Could you just remind me again what the movement around that is on sort of uncertainty mechanisms, gating mechanisms, potential other areas? Is 7% your best estimate at the moment, or is that sort of what's kind of in the models? Thank you.
Okay, thanks, Dom. So I think two things. Look, we're really pleased with the outcome, so it's a real significant movement that we've seen between the DD and the FD, both in terms of the amount of TOTEX, the movement that we've seen in the ODI package. Clearly, there is obviously upward pressure on the WACC, and there are direct costs that we need to consider. But actually, if you look at the package, and we always say we need to look at the package in the round in terms of how that's all come together, actually we think that we can get on, we can, more importantly, we can drive the step change in performance that everybody's looking to see, and we're keen to get going on and enabling the delivery and the growth. So I think it's really important that we look at it in the round.
I also think what's important is that we remember that this is guiding back to the plan that we've had consistently all the way through, and I think it's very easy to sort of look at the movements between one and the other, but that's the reason that we are confident and happy with the package that's on the table combined with the negotiation and discussions we've been having with Ofwat about those company-specific targets, because we're really pleased that we've been able to negotiate those because they are things that are specific about UU that would have been risks otherwise. So our focus is on delivering this plan, delivering the outcomes for customers, communities, and the returns for you as shareholders that you'd expect to see and quite rightly want to see. In relation to the question about the 7%, that's all in.
The only thing that's in the gated mechanism is something that we asked to be put into the gated mechanism, and that's some additional work that I've asked for in terms of Windermere, and there's a GBP 180 million package there, but that 7% is fully underpinned in terms of the delivery we have in this program. There are opportunities, as you well know, in terms of reopeners and activities that sit within the package that's been put out by Ofwat, and there are some specifics both in things of like PFAS, cybersecurity, bioresources, asset health, overflows, and some additionality around Windermere too. But I think what's really important is that 7% locked in, we now need to get on, we need to get that delivered, because as Sarah said, we've got that big growth trajectory of the first few years of the AMP.
I want to get that delivered so we can enable improved performance and resilience and then start to focus on what's in AMP9 and what the opportunities are that sit around transitional investment.
Thank you. Can I just follow up with the response to the first question, which is obviously there were concerns about the WACC, and I know that you're not going to be drawn on specifics, but is it fair to say that where you currently stand at the moment, you think that the regulatory contract, United Utilities can beat it?
Look, I think from a WACC perspective, what is good is that we did see movement between DD and FD, so 30 basis points. I think, however, in terms of what you will all have priced in, I think we are aware that it is probably slightly below where many of you are, but we've locked in outperformance on embedded debt. We expect to outperform on new debt issuance. I think we're in a really strong position, great balance sheet, fantastic treasury function with Phil and the team. And again, I think it's important that we look at the FD in the round. There are significant improvements that we've seen. We've been able to see real and positive movement on all of those key five areas that we represented on, and it's now about getting on with getting that delivered and generating the outperformance that everybody wants to see.
Great, thank you very much.
Anything else you'd like to add to that?
Dom, nice to see you this morning. Just to sort of expand, I mean, we had the question from Pev about RoRE guidance, and clearly we're going to step into that in some detail in the capital markets event in the summer. But it is fair to say we've got a track record of delivering, certainly in the context of financing outperformance. We've got a very good embedded debt position locked in, so we are expecting to outperform the cost of equity position.
Thank you very much.
Terrific, thank you, Dom. Mark, over to you.
Hey, no, thank you for taking my questions. Phil, just on allowed returns, I mean, and particularly dividend coming out of that, I mean, we know that no review ever goes to plan. Things always come up. You've now got a government long-dated real yields which have shot up substantially since the FD. So 4%, if you mark to market with the debt indexation, it's more like 4.03%, but that is still not great. Are you concerned if your marginal debt costs remain at these levels, whether actually your dividend at some point does get squeezed? Just secondly, Lou, and I have to ask you this, what is the part of the FD that you like the least? And my final question is just on capital delivery, which is probably the key challenge here. How is the supply chain looking?
What are your contractors telling you, and how are the pricing discussions going?
Okay, thanks, Mark. Phil, do you want to pick up on the first question in terms of cost of debt, and I'll pick up on the second too, if Mark's raised?
Morning, Mark. So very, very comfortable with the dividend projections in terms of our dividend policy. And as you know, the debt indexation model sort of adjusts for sort of the rate environments as we go. In the context of outperformance from financing, it's really a case of the ability to outperform the index, and we see ourselves continuing to be able to outperform the index that Ofwat has put in place. And indeed, in the last 24 months, we've consistently done that. So no concerns in the context of a dividend policy in that context.
Okay, Mark, in relation to your two questions in terms of what do I like the least and about capital delivery, I think in terms of what do I like the least, I think there's still some elements in there, particularly around things where costs are guaranteed, so things like business rates and those specific costs where we've still got some efficiencies that we've got to drive and deliver. So they've got true-up mechanisms against them, but at the moment, they are pass-through costs essentially on the estate. So we've got some real areas of focus that we need to focus in those sort of specific areas. I think what's also fair to say is that it's about the sequencing of this plan and the delivery because where I think the opportunity sits is around how do we deliver this capital as quickly as possible.
And I suppose it leads me on to your last question because they are linked in a way, which is about capital delivery and pricing. The supply chain is already on board. The contracts are already there. They're already working. And I think what's great is we've been able to secure a fantastic supply chain for two reasons. One is because we had that accelerated transitional investment, so we've already been able to get them into contract. They're already working now. And secondly, is they can see that growth trajectory not just out to AMP8, but to AMP9 and to AMP10 and beyond. United Utilities has got a strong track record in terms of performance, strong financial performance. So if you are going to contract with anybody, it is with a company like United Utilities. So we're not seeing that constriction sat in the supply chain.
In fact, actually what I'm seeing is great innovation and great opportunity. And what we've done, and we're going to talk you through this when we go through the capital markets in a lot more detail, Mark, but essentially the way we've gone to market is different than the way we've done that before, both in terms of we have an enterprise partnership with some of the larger contractual partners, as you'd expect, but actually we've gone directly to tier two and tier three suppliers as well. And that's helping fantastically, both in terms of driving innovation and cost efficiency into the program, so a really strong and robust supply chain. You're going to get the opportunity to explore some more of that as part of the capital markets presentation as we go forward.
I mean, I think in terms of the what do I like the least, well, it's the thing that will continue to get the most conversation. It's around the WACC. I think we would have all hoped for it to be a little bit higher than it is, but we've got to look at this package in the round, and we think we can make it work, and therefore we're going to get on, get the delivery underway, and more importantly, secure that growth as we move into the future.
Terrific. Thank you very much. Ahmed, go ahead, mate.
Thank you. Phil, a couple of questions for you. Could you talk us through a little bit of the profile of the gearing of the business? So how do you expect it to evolve over the course of the AMP? And is there going to be much difference between the gearing of UU Group versus UU Water? Then a couple of questions on, I guess, underlying assumptions around outperformance. Is there anything specific you can give us on financing outperformance on the embedded debt? That's, I think, behind whatever is assumed for the funding and behind the funding plan. And then just on TOTEX, for year one of the AMP8, can you give us some comments there? Are you happy or are you comfortable to look at the cost structure and say that you wouldn't expect any underperformance in year one of AMP8? Thank you.
Phil, do you want to pick up on those questions?
Okay, hi Ahmed, nice to see you again. Profile of gearing and UUG, UUW. So we're starting the AMP in a very, very strong position at 60% sort of debt to RCV. That will trend up progressively as we go through the AMP. I think in the context of UUG and UUW, you will see those gearing levels broadly the same, effectively equalising as we go through that period. So not a big difference between the two. And it's worth stressing and emphasizing, which is perhaps different to some of our peer group companies, the 55%-65% is a group gearing target. In terms of assumptions that are underpinning that sort of and sort of cost profile, sort of I guess the sort of on the TOTEX position, the TOTEX position, we do see ourselves delivering in line with the final determination position.
And embedded debt outperformance is something that intrinsically is effectively factored into the plan because effectively it's locked in. It's there on day one. So that benefit is in the numbers effectively. I think that was probably it, but is there anything else you wanted to follow up on?
No, that's so could I say so when you say increase progressively, presumably you're talking about you see 65% towards the end of the AMP under your current sort of projections on gearing for the group?
Sort of, well, we're starting at 60. We see ourselves operating in that range, and it will nudge up. We aren't giving guidances to the end of the AMP position, but sort of that's sort of the position effectively.
Okay, thank you. Thank you. Very clear.
Okay, lucky last. Over to you, John.
Thank you, Chris. Yeah, morning everyone. I appreciate you won't necessarily be guiding on your expected AMP8 RoRE, unlike Helen and I think you came out with 7%. Perhaps you could give us a taste or a flavor of what to expect. So this AMP, I think Ofwat have come out with some sort of calculator basically for ODIs, a ready reckoner. ODIs previously were viewed by most probably as a bit of a black box. So I think this is helpful in some respects. Their calculation suggests that should you perform in line with the targets you put in your representation model, you could be on track to deliver on average over the course of AMP8 around 25 basis points of outperformance. Would you agree with that calculator that Ofwat has presented? Do you think you could outperform it?
I know perhaps the notional gearing has changed at AMP8 versus AMP7, but maybe you could give some context how that compares to the average in AMP7 of your outperformance?
Okay, Phil, do you want to pick those up?
Morning, John. I'll take that. I think sort of lots of great questions there. I think without spoiling it, I'm going to have to say we'll wait till the Capital Markets Day in June because that's going to be where we're getting into all the detail in terms of operational performance. So it's going to be a great opportunity to meet the team and to understand more broadly about the plans for operational delivery and how that's going to drive the ODI position going forward. So all of that you'll get and more effectively in June.
Okay, maybe if I could follow up, but you feel like at least there's a base level that people should expect. Would you agree with that sentiment?
No, we've absolutely seen the model Ofwat put out. That's based on some targets and trajectories. I think we've seen, as we said in the presentation, a 40% movement in targets, and we've seen some of the negative downward pressures come off, which is really important with UU. It won't surprise you to know we're extremely focused on how do we deliver those ODI outcomes. We were the biggest ODI deliverer last year, and that's why I'm gearing up the team in terms of making sure that we deliver. It wouldn't be appropriate at this moment in time for me to give you guidance for the AMP. We'll be talking a lot more about that as part of the Capital Markets Day in terms of getting this year finished and more importantly then looking forward to the new AMP.
But rest assured, we are extremely focused as you would want us to be and expect us to be with our track record in terms of delivering performance improvement. And not just in terms of ODIs, but ODIs, financing outperformance, and also driving TOTEX efficiency too.
Thank you.
Terrific. Thank you very much, John. Jenny, over to you.
Thanks very much. One question for Phil, please, to save Lou's voice. Just on index linked debt, obviously you guys are above sector average as we stand today, and my understanding is there had been some discussions of bringing that more in line with a sector average or at least more in line with Ofwat's assumptions. Can you just talk to us in terms of how you expect to do that and the cash flow impact and therefore the net debt position that all of this has on UU at the group level towards the end of the AMP? Thank you.
Okay, hi Jenny, nice to see you. So index linked debt, as you say, the sector average sort of is around about 50%. So we are at sector average where we are today. I think in the context of the listed peers, the listed peers are slightly lower than that. We, looking forward to as we move through AMP8, are going to be trending that down. So we're not taking any proactive interventions, which will be quite inefficient to do in the context of buying back any debt or anything like that. So that debt will naturally just progress forward and gradually roll off. It is quite long-dated, so it will take time to roll off. And as we put new debt on, the percentage will naturally readjust and rebalance.
So as I see us getting towards the end of the AMP, I would see us being down at more like the third, which is effectively the Ofwat model position.
Thank you very much.
Okay, looks like we have no further questions. So thank you very much everyone for attending this morning. And if you have any follow-ups, please don't hesitate to get in touch with the IR team. Lou, I'll hand back to you.
Brilliant, thank you and thank you, Jenny, for your last question directed to Chris and thank you so much for bearing with my voice, which I'm really pleased has held, but is now just starting to break. Look, I just wanted to say thank you to you all for joining this morning. I know it's been an extremely busy morning already, but I'm extremely pleased with the FD in terms of where we've outturned. It's a real big improvement on the draft. It's consistent with everything that we've said all the way along in terms of that adaptive plan. I'm really pleased with what we've been able to negotiate and those company-specific targets on the things that matter to us here in the North West, so on internal sewer flooding and on CSO spills. This delivers a package of improvements for both customers, communities, and the environment.
Over GBP 13 billion worth of investment, 30,000 jobs, and is going to be at the heart of driving economic growth in the North West. We're not, as we've stepped into today's conversation, providing guidance for the AMP. It's too early. However, we will provide guidance in terms of ODIs as we step into the May result and more importantly into that capital markets presentation that is in June. I think what's really, really important to say more than anything else though is we're really excited about getting going. We think this is a real pivotal movement, not just for the sector, but for us here at UU delivering RCV growth, not just for this AMP, but for future AMPs too.
I really hope that you can join me and the new team that I've put in place to deliver this step change in performance and investment that both we and you want to see. Thank you so much for your time today.