Hello everyone, welcome to today's Whitbread Q1 2026 trading update call. My name is Seb, and I'll be the operator for your call today. If you'd like to ask a question during the Q&A session, please press * 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press * 2. I will now hand over to Dominic Paul to begin. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Seb. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining the call for our Quarter One Trading Update this morning. I'm joined by Hemant Patel, Whitbread's CFO, and we look forward to answering your questions shortly. Hopefully, you've had a chance to review the quarter one release this morning. I'm going to start with a brief overview for those who haven't seen it, and then we'll open up the call for Q&A. Before I touch on the first quarter's performance, I wanted to just say a few words on the excellent progress we're making on our key strategic initiatives that underpin our five-year plan that are set to deliver incremental profit of at least GBP 300 million by full year 2030 and generate more than GBP 2 billion for shareholders.
In the U.K., we're extending our market-leading position through a combination of network expansion, our accelerating growth plan, and our ongoing program of commercial initiatives that mean we are performing ahead of the market. We are on track to deliver the GBP 60 million of cost savings that we have guided for this year as part of our ongoing efficiency program. In Germany, the scale, quality, and value of our offer is raising our brand awareness at the same time as our hotels and brands are continuing to mature. As a result, we remain on course to hit profitability this year. Now, let me turn now to our quarter one performance. As you will have all seen from the market data, trading in the first quarter, which ran from the 29th of May, was against a softer demand backdrop.
This meant that U.K. accommodation sales and RevPARs were both back 2% versus last year. However, thanks to the positive impact of our commercial programs, this represented a meaningful outperformance versus the mid-scale and economy sector on both accommodation sales and RevPAR , and our Rev PAR premium increased to GBP 5.63. Our outperformance was across both London and the region, and our particularly strong outperformance in London was down to a higher rating in Central London, where demand has remained relatively robust and where we have been adding more rooms. In Germany, our business is continuing to perform strongly. Total accommodation sales grew by 16% in constant currency, with our commercial initiatives and the increase in maturity to our estate underpinning strong RevPAR growth.
Whilst the whole estate outperformed the market in Q1, we are particularly pleased with our cohort of more established hotels, which again delivered strong RevPAR growth, + 17%, reaching EUR 72 in the period. While our normal booking patterns mean that forward visibility is somewhat limited, our forward booked position is still ahead of last year, and with more of our commercial initiatives in train, we remain confident in being able to stay ahead of the market. I'll now hand back to Seb to host the Q&A. As you know, we have our AGM today, and so we only have half an hour this morning for questions. Given it's only a few weeks since our last update, could I please ask you to limit your questions to two per person? Thank you very much. Thanks, Seb.
Thank you. First question comes from Vicki Stern at Barclays. Please go ahead.
Yeah, morning. What else are you coming on the continued outperformance in the U.K.? Obviously quite a turnaround from last year. I think you were underperforming slightly last year in the market. Now it's sort of well over 1% in terms of outperformance. Just what sort of changed last year to this year in terms of those commercial leaders? What in particular is driving the outperformance and your level of confidence that can sustain? The second one on Germany, you're sort of ramping up nicely, reiterating the targets for the year in terms of profit. I think we've seen a bit of a softening in the market data recently.
Just curious your sort of context around what's going on in the market, your level of confidence in sort of being able to still get to those levels of profit as the market backdrop is just slightly against you.
Yeah, thanks, Vicki. Yeah, I mean, we're really pleased about the commercial performance in the U.K. as an outperformance. I'm sure we'll get questions today about the `RevPAR outlook. As I just said, the market has been slightly softer, obviously that same data that we're looking at. I think the really encouraging thing is when RevPAR turns positive, which it will at some point, we never predict exactly when, but when market RevPAR turns positive, I think we're setting ourselves up really well to take advantage of that. It's not by chance. It's because we've got a really, really clear set of commercial initiatives in place. We've made a lot of changes to how we're running and operating our business commercially.
We think of it in kind of three broad buckets with a clear underpin of a really strong brand, which we continue to strengthen. In the U.K., our brand awareness and preference is super high, well over 90%, but also a really consistent quality guest delivery in our hotels. That for us is the underpin. There are kind of three broad ways I think about the business. The first way is we've really sharpened up our approach to CRM, customer relationship management, and using the data that we've got. We've got pretty much all of the data from all of our guests, and that is the big advantage. I'll give you an example. We've done a lot of work on communication to our customers about nudging customers to rebook, to increase frequency from customers, but also to reduce churn. That's a really important area.
We have outweighed our team there. We have got a really clear plan that sits behind there, and I think it is really taking advantage of the data that we have got as a business. The second area of opportunity is getting more revenue from customers that are staying with us. That is all about effectively driving ancillary revenue and upselling and cross-selling to our guests, generally offering things to guests that actually they want. If I give you a few examples, upgrading our Wi-Fi and then charging GBP 5 for ultimate Wi-Fi, but fast, good quality ultimate Wi-Fi. Rooms with a view, which we have rolled out to significantly more rooms over the last 12 months. Early check-in and late check-out. We tried that, offering that in hotel. It is now digitally enabled, so effectively on the app and online, you will be offered that in a large selection of our hotels.
Premier First, it's doing really well. It's GBP 15 or GBP 20 upgrade, so it's a really manageable upgrade amount. The new hotels we're now building are actually generally increasing the indexation of Premier First because it's performing super well. A whole set of initiatives that sit behind the plan with more to come in the future about getting more revenue from our existing guests. There is a third bucket, which is how do we get access to groups of customers that we're not currently getting access to? An example would be deepening our relationships with business travel agents, for example, which historically we've done very little with. We've upgraded our business to business team. We've extended our business to business team. We've signed multiple new contracts. Really good opportunity for us. Every company at the moment is cost-looking at their bottom line and efficiencies.
As a strong value brand, we're incredibly well placed to take advantage of that, and we're making sure we harvest it. We talked last time at the year-end, a few weeks ago, about an inbound trial, which we really think is a big opportunity for us to increase our indexation of inbound customers. We think that's going to be a creative revenue for us overall. I mean, really sharpening up our digital marketing and search engine marketing as well, which we've made material to drive that. I mean, fundamentally, we are a digital business, and I think we're really setting the business up to think much more like a digital business and taking advantage of the data that we've got. I'd say those things, underpinned by the product and the brand, is driving that market outperformance, and we're very focused on ensuring that we continue to do that.
Vicki, the second part of your question was about Germany. You will see kind of from the numbers and how I covered the introduction, we are feeling really good about progress in Germany. Again, I know I am not going to track record, but it is important. The underpin in Germany is the guest proposition that we have got. We are scoring super high on guest proposition. The reason I keep coming back to that is that that is going to make the brand and product super sustainable in the market, and I think create this really interesting platform for growth for us as we hit profitability and go beyond that. The German market, I would expect the next few months in the German market overall will be lapping euros and things like that.
There probably will be a little bit of choppiness, but we're not seeing anything fundamental at all in the German market in terms of softness. Actually, you've heard us talk about this before. Our estate is still maturing, and that means that the overall market backdrop is slightly less important for us in Germany because the estate is maturing and the brand is maturing. Like any year in Germany, there is a really kind of rich series of events. There is an event, quite a rich set of events planned for the year. They do not always line up perfectly week by week or month by month, so you'll always see a little bit of choppiness in the numbers. Broadly, the German market overall is performing well.
Within the German market, as you see, we're performing particularly well with outperforming and the estate and brand continue to mature. We're feeling good about hitting profitability, but frankly, most importantly, we're feeling good about that GBP 70 million PBT target that we've laid out for year 2030. That's a GBP 80 million improvement in PBT and getting to 20,000 rooms, which will make us the fastest growing hotel chain in Germany. There has to be material value attached to that before the price is up to.
Really helpful. Thank you very much.
Next question is from Jamie Rollo at Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Morning, everyone. First question is just on the sort of forward-looking commentary. You said at the three-year results that your booked position was up, Q1 occupancy is down 4%. Maybe you can just discuss sort of forward-looking figures in that context. Is there anything at all to give you sort of confidence that London is at weakness kind of date? The other question just on the openings, and I know you do not always give your openings in the call to the updates, but if you could just please give us your confidence level here for the three-year targets for the U.K. and Germany for this year, and maybe quantify how much is under construction currently. Thank you very much.
Yeah, thanks, Jamie. Let me take the first part of the question, and then I'll hand over to Hemant to talk about the openings. I mean, you're right. The occupancy was down in quarter one. Actually, I think we got that right overall. The price elasticity was slightly lower, and therefore holding rate overall was definitely the right thing to do. I think that contributed to our market outperformance. I think it proved the agility of our model as well, which is, remember, what we're doing is aiming to maximize revenue in every hotel in every month of every day of the week. It is a complex set of algorithms, and we need to be agile by price, by hotel, by market, by cash interior. I think the indications are we're getting that right.
Yes, we are booked ahead of where we were last year. Obviously, the kind of peak summer period is a really big period for our business. Bookings into the peak summer period, as we've said before, are looking good. We're really focused on that. Doing well in the peak summer period more than makes up for the market being slightly softer in, let's say, Q1. I think our focus is very clearly on driving that performance during that peak period. Overall, in the market, as we said before, it's impossible to say the point at which the Rev`PAR will inflect positively. It will inflect positively at some point. Obviously, as the months go on, we're back in relatively weak numbers as an industry. The run rate average is about 2% RevPAR growth per year. It will turn positive at some point.
Impossible to say exactly when, but that's why we remain resolutely focused on outperforming the market and setting the business up so that when the market does inflate, we are in a super strong place to take full advantage of that. In terms of the openings, yeah, so okay, Jamie. Yes, we're not changing guidance at all. We're still very happy that we're going to be able to get to guidance with about 400 rooms or so in Germany this year and about 1,000-1,200 rooms in the U.K., including acquired 500-700 expansion growth plan rooms as well. You'll know that over the next five years, again, we're very comfortable getting 98,000 rooms in the U.K. and 20,000 rooms in Germany by FY2030. The run rate this year is low.
The run rate we'll see over the next few years, but as you'll remember, that is entirely due to the fact that three or four years ago, it was COVID when we were signing contracts. The level of contracts we signed to outpark pipeline was muted because of COVID and the restrictions that we had at that point. Since then, we've been adding rooms to the pipeline. It's executing us as rooms to mature from to build those rooms from the pipeline. We've just been in this period at the vantage point time where we'll now see an acceleration over the next couple of years in terms of the rooms. Very comfortable getting to 98,000 rooms in the U.K., 20,000 in Germany by FY2030, and very happy with the guidance we've given at the beginning of this year for crew openings. Thanks, Jamie.
Okay, thank you very much.
The next question is from Jarrod Castle at UBS. Please go ahead.
Great. Thank you very much. I know a very, very small part of your business, an associate part of it, but any comments on kind of recent events in the Middle East and how it's impacting your JV there at the moment? Any update that you can give in terms of how the property valuation exercise is coming along, please? Thanks.
Yeah, thanks, Jarrod. Let me take the kind of second part of the question first, and I'll briefly cover the JV point, and then Hemant can build on that if necessary. I think in terms of property valuation, we articulated a few weeks ago our plan was to do the property valuation and communicate that at the half year. At our interims, which is at the end of October, and we're on track to do that. We're feeling good about the market overall. You'll have seen that one of the aspects of our five-year plan is that we're going to recycle approximately GBP 1 billion worth of property by full year 2030. It's an important part of our growth program. Overall, we're making good progress on that. The market is opening up quite nicely, so our confidence is good in that area.
From a property valuation point of view, we'll talk about that at that half-year plan. In terms of the JV, the short answer is no. I mean, to your point, it's a very small part of our business. We haven't seen any particular impact from that and wouldn't particularly expect it, but it is a very small part of our plan. I suppose one other point, just to kind of reiterate on our business. We're a big and successful business in the U.K. and a growing business in Germany. We are very insulated from things like the tariff situation and actually generally more so from the global events. Although we are now getting a slightly higher proportion of the inbound market, we don't particularly focus on the inbound market. We're more of a domestic business, actually, in both the U.K. and Germany.
If there are travel swings globally, I think we are relatively insulated from that. We have got a very, very kind of sustainable, strong business model that is somewhat less impacted by these events than a lot of our competitors there.
Yeah, I am just going to add that. I mean, we are a middle-aged socially good place. We have got hotels in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha, and we have got 11 hotels there, the joint venture. I do not think we have not seen any real impact yet. We do not know about what will happen over time, but in terms of booking levels and traveling levels, we will watch that over time. I mean, yeah, it is fairly uncertain from what is going on at the moment, but we will watch that. We will not be complacent about that.
Thanks very much.
Thanks, Jarrod.
Next question is from Richard Clarke at Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Two for me, please. Just a question maybe on the Fitch report from a couple of weeks ago where they took you down to negative watch. I think on their assumptions, you run quite close to your three and a half times leverage, sort of target, your leverage maximum level of leverage. Do you kind of agree with that, Matt? Would you allow the business to be downgraded to BBB minus in the short term, or if you were getting close to that, would you slow down buybacks, slow down CapEx? What would be your reaction if you felt you were going to get close to that three and a half? And then secondly, I guess if I look at your release, quite small part of the business again, but big inflection on German F&B last year was growing slower than accommodation.
This year, it's growing 7% faster than accommodation. What's the F&B strategy? Why is that now outpacing the accommodation sales?
Yeah, thanks, Richard. I'll start the second question first. I'll touch on the answer to the first and then hand over to Hemant. In terms of Germany F&B, I mean, overall, if we step back from it, I think we're really benefiting from this very specific market focus that we've got in Germany. We now have a leadership team in Germany, Erik Friemuth, who's our leader in Germany, with a dedicated team in Germany. We really think benefits from that. We've got a group of people who wake up every morning, and they just think about how are we going to become number one in Germany, hit profitability, become number one in Germany. I think that's a sign of us really growing up and maturing as a business. F&B is a micro example of that.
They've done a number of really good initiatives in the hotels, whether that is things like cocktail hour in the hotels, get into the bar, for example, where margins are high. We've updated the menu in the restaurants. It's a really nicely simple offering. It's a relatively small menu. It's good quality food, but a relatively small menu. We're doing well from repositioning that menu. Of course, the kind of happy hour focus encourages people to stay and eat something. Our breakfast ratios have improved. We've improved the breakfast overall. We've made it more continental as well to what German guests like. We've improved point of sale. We've done good old-fashioned things like have incentives and focus from the front desk about upselling breakfast, etc.
We have improved the digital journey where it makes it even easier to add breakfast, for example, as you book through it. Utilizing our digital platform, utilizing our people in the hotel, and then simplifying and improving the product to get more people to spend more money in the hotel. We have also got some really cool things like we have got spending machine proposition, which is like a mini shop in a number of our hotels, which is performing well, which gets some incremental revenue from guests when they come check in late, for example, or want something for their journey. I would describe it as a really entrepreneurial approach, and it gives us the whole performance in Germany, I think, is giving us real confidence in what we are building there and the progress that we are making.
In terms of the investment grade, the Fitch point, I guess I'll just step back from it and say it's important that we remain investment grade to our business model. We have plenty of room to still remain investment grade, but maybe heavily down.
Yeah, as Dominic said, it's no driving it forward. It's very deliberate. The very first thing you said when you talked about cash allocation is that we want to remain investment grade. You're right that we are BBB flat at the moment. And Fitch put us on a negative outlook on being BBB flat from a stable outlook, but they're still happy to keep us BBB flat. They recognize that we are going through a high level of investment at the moment. We have a very heavily pivoted plan to the exciting growth program, but that we've had very strong historic capital discipline. The fact that we do talk about remaining investment grade as part of our capital allocation framework, that commitment to being so, and that we're limiting our net capital spend to GBP 500 million a year over the five-year plan.
The five-year plan itself assumes that we remain roughly the same leverage ratio that we have at this stage, and that will allow us to fully invest in the business and achieve the room growth and profit growth that we've talked about. The fact that we are BBB flat, your question about would we be okay being BBB minus? Like I said, we remain investment grade. We're happy to stay BBB flat. We would still be okay being BBB minus as well as long as we stay within those investment grade thresholds and give ourselves some headroom against that, which I'd say is 3 1/2 the leverage ratio.
Thank you, Richard.
Our next question is from Jane [Ministry] at Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi. Can you hear me?
Yeah, we can, Jane. Hi, how are you doing?
Oh, brilliant. Hello. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got two as well. One bigger question. Your answer around the commercial levers earlier was really, really helpful. Am I right in thinking that your commercial levers are far superior to your peers right now? How easy would it be for your peers to replicate the abilities that you have today? My second question is around your shorter-term RevPAR premium. When you reported for your results in your seven-week kind of current trading update, your U.K. RevPAR premium was GBP 6.79. For the whole quarter, it was GBP 5.63. Just wondering, has anything changed in the competitive environment that's driving the narrowing somewhat in the premium through the quarter? Thank you.
Thanks, Jane. Let me answer the first part of the question and I'll hand over to Hemant to talk about the RevPAR premium kind of phasing within the quarter. We always assume that our competitors are going to catch up with what we're doing. I mean, we're number one in the market. As you said, our outperformance has proved an increase versus our competitors overall. We always assume that competitors are going to see what we're doing and learn from it. It's why it's really important to us that we have an ongoing set of initiatives, and we keep doubling down on the success that we're seeing. We have a really strong commercial focus as a business. We haven't shot all of our bullets in terms of potential, far from it. We will continue to execute extremely well, but also improve what our offering is.
We can see real opportunity in that as we project forward over the next few years. We can see real opportunity. I mean, fundamentally, we are advantaged. We've got a super strong brand, and we've got scale. What that means is we can invest money in things like marketing because of our scale that helps drive kind of customer acquisition and customer retention. We have the vast majority of the data from our customers. We're thinking much more like a tech business. That enables us to harvest that data. Again, not all of our competitors have the data from their customers. We have this incredibly strong network of hotels, 850 across the U.K. and across Germany. That means that locally, we can build our awareness as well. I think we're hard to compete against for those reasons.
That scale and the first integration we have got gives us real advantages. It means we can execute at real pace. If we make a decision, for example, we will try a happy hour in a hotel. If we see success enough, we can roll those kind of things out very quickly. Room with a view. We trialed it in a subset of hotels. We rolled it out rapidly, and we can do that with diverse integration. The kind of privilege we have got is our core model gives us an advantage in terms of executing that and executing at pace. To do that, you need a really clear plan, and you need very strong execution. We have got a very clear plan. I think what we are showing is we are resolutely focused on very strong execution.
Jane, just in terms of the RevPAR premium, yes, you're right. Our RevPAR premium has extended across the quarter to start at GBP 5.63 as our market performance has got stronger. The phasing across the quarter, actually, I think really very much about Easter. When we announced the first seven weeks, we were not the full way through all of the Easter phasing, as you might remember. Normally, that just means it is a shift of Easter. Across the quarter, it would not make a difference. The difference in phasing is actually because the week before going into Easter was a much stronger business week in terms of sales outcomes. The week coming out after Easter was a much weaker business week, relatively. We do particularly well in mid-week in terms of our RevPAR premium extent.
Therefore, it really is just a phasing thing between a business week and a leisure week year-on-year switching from before and after Easter. If you look at the overall quarter and take out the Easter phasing, it's been fairly consistent in terms of the RevPAR premium and the market outperformance.
Super clear. Thank you.
Thanks, Jane.
Thanks, Jane.
Our next question is from Alex Brignall at Rothschild & Co Redburn . Please go ahead.
Morning. Thank you for taking the questions. One quickly on the trading commentary, and then one on just forward expectations. On the trading commentary, could you just talk through a little bit of how your kind of yield management systems are working? Obviously, for several quarters now, your trading has been up year-on-year when you've given your update. Then, obviously, when it comes to it, it's ended up negative. I suspect it's to do with how far in advance you're selling your rooms. If you could give us a little bit of view on how that actually works, that would be incredibly helpful because it's hard to know whether the forward bookings being up suggest that it's actually going to end up up or whether it's to do with the way you manage your room sales.
Just in terms of forward expectations, obviously, you're running a little below in terms of RevPAR for the quarter you've had so far, and the summer has been stronger than previous years. Is it probably right to think that the PBT will need to come down a little bit versus where consensus goes, about GBP 4.74? Thank you very much.
Thanks, Alex. Let me just start the first part of your question, and I'm going to hand over to Hemant, who can build on it and then cover the second part of the question. I mean, for thinking though, we've got what we call our Automated Trading Engine. We believe it's best in class. Our vertical integration, i.e., that we run the pricing and yield management for every single hotel centrally, gives us an advantage. The system has access to all of the data, all of the booking patterns, and automatically adjusts. I mean, obviously, there is a centralized pricing team who work with the system. But the algorithms will automatically adjust the pricing to optimize the revenue and accommodation price in the occupancy by room, by night, by hotel, which is complicated.
I guess if we step back from it, the fact that we're consistently outperforming the market is a real kind of proof point that actually we are optimizing revenue successfully. I'll give you a little example. A bit earlier in the calendar year, we dropped some of the prices in some of the hotels. The trading engine actually didn't necessarily call for that, but we could see that actually that potentially could work to just drop the price a little bit. We didn't see the elasticity was particularly strong in those off-peak periods. We very quickly reverted to the pricing structure that the system by hotel was calling for. That was the right decision. You could see that from a RevPAR outperformance point of view. The elasticity was relatively low. In that situation, by dropping the price, you also lose opportunity, but you also lose price.
That will change by day, by week, by month, and by season. You will see a higher in the summer, for example, you will definitely see it will be less elastic, and therefore, you will want to keep the prices relatively high. It is changing constantly. Our kind of superpower is the Automated Trading Engine. Critically, our implementation of that Automated Trading Engine. We will not have individual hotel managers overriding it, for example. It is done centrally. Does it get absolutely perfectly right in every hotel room? It is always learning from it. We have a training team at least daily and weekly on the outcomes. I think this centralized approach is clearly a superpower for our business. We are not complacent, and we continue to learn from it and continue to improve.
Yeah, and then just to finish John's point, I mean, a key point you've made there is that actually the evidence in market outperformance has been consistent. It proves that actually we've been able to make the right decisions in terms of pricing and profit booking windows. We do not know exactly what other competitors' booking windows look like and their booking profiles. That would probably indicate that we're getting it right across the whole booking window. It would be very difficult to get it wrong in one part and now massively get better in another part. That is not how we work. It will just be a question of behavior of booking behaviors year-on-year, which is why we will see changes in those opportunity levels.
To your second point regards to consensus this year, I mean, you'll know us, we don't guide specifically on PBT expectations, consensus, nor RevPAR. We know that it's a very transparent RevPAR performance in the market because of the weekly data that kind of comes out. We talk about what we expect to see in terms of how we'll perform as the market. I can't give you any specific guidance. You'll see what Unicode are projecting at the moment on Bloomberg. There haven't been many. What we'll say is we've had some of the panels update. Those that are updated, I'd assume that are going to get to something like - 0.7% to - 0.1% for RevPAR. That's just for information. Yeah, clearly, that is an increase against the first quarter.
Projection for the full year, as we talked about earlier, there are easier comps still to come. Beyond that, there's no other guidance. We will keep on RevPAR overall.
Thanks, Alex. I'm sorry, we've probably got time for one more question.
Thank you. Next question is from Estelle Weingrod at JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Two quick questions, please. The first one on the U.K. You recently mentioned some sort of weakness in the short lead and off-peak leisure demand with pockets of strength and stability elsewhere. Have you seen any material changes in recent trends? The second one on Germany, I mean, back to the point on potential weaker RevPAR momentum not helped by challenging comps in terms of a busy events calendar last year. Would you be able to provide some sort of PBT sensitivity for Germany? Thank you.
Yeah, I mean, let me—hi, Estelle. I mean, in terms of patterns, we've seen no material changes. I mean, obviously, we're going into a busier, more peak time. One of our messages was that kind of off-peak leisure has been a little bit softer. There's a bit less off-peak leisure in the peak time by definition. Broadly, I'd say no material changes overall. I mean, the RevPAR kind of reductions that we've reported, relatively small swings. Broadly, our occupancy in our hotels is still very high overall. It's relatively edges, which is why it doesn't take much for the RevPAR to inflect positive. As I said, we're very focused on that. Critically, we're just focused on how do we consistently outperform the market. Because when the market does inflate, we will be therefore in a very good place. Do you want to?
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the biggest part of what's happening in the German market, obviously, for us, is much more about how our sites are maturing over time. I mean, yeah, we can give, you can try and predict from the market what might be happening. The reality is the market, using market data to kind of guide, is not really going to help you, Estelle. That is obviously for the overall material prediction. With Whitbread, Germany is a relatively small part of the business still in terms of public contribution at this stage. The guidance we have given that we are going to get to profitability this year between GBP 5 million and GBP 10 million still stands. We are happy that we are on track to be able to do that.
Clearly, as we do through the year, if we feel that's not the case, in a material way, we will update you going forward.
Estelle, if we just step back from looking at Germany for a moment, you kind of think, what we're building in Germany now, I mean, we're really excited about it. You can see the progress we're making in terms of RevPAR and RevPAR growth. Also in terms of our confidence of actually 20,000 rooms inside in five years' time by full year 2030. The outperformance versus our competitors in Germany is super encouraging. I mean, it's across the whole estate, but our more mature hotels are particularly strong. I think that's giving us overall really strong confidence now as we're looking at the business that we're creating. Of course, our key competitor in Germany, Motel One, they're performing well. They're very profitable. They've got a model that works. It's a proof point of what we're building in Germany.
If we look at our kind of share price overall for Whitbread, you could argue there's very little in it for Germany. I think time is rapidly approaching where I think we are really displaying that there is value that we're creating. We're on track to become the number one hotel chain in Germany. That is definitely going to have value attached to it. We think we're building a fantastic estate hotel with a strong brand.
I'm conscious of time. Firstly, we'd like to thank everybody for their time today. I mean, we've covered it briefly, but our five-year plan is transformative. We're making excellent progress overall. We're really confident in our five-year plan to deliver GBP 300 million of financial PBT and at least GBP 2 billion worth of shareholder returns. We appreciate your time today and your support. Thank you very much.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.