Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening to everyone joining the call. Welcome to the Safaricom PLC pre-close conference call. We are happy that you could join us for this session. This is the first collective engagement that we are having together with you this calendar year, we do hope that you have been keeping well. My name is Caroline Wambugu. I serve as the Head of Financial Planning Analysis and Investor Relations here at Safaricom, and I'll be moderating the discussion. We are coming to the close of our fiscal year in two weeks, and of course thereafter, as is our norm, we shall get into a closed period till we announce our full year 2026 results on the 7 May as per our schedule.
On today's call, our CEO, Dr. Peter Ndegwa, and our CFO, Dilip Pal, will share some updates with us, on the two markets that we operate in, that's Kenya and Ethiopia. Post that we shall give you an opportunity to field your questions, and, we definitely will address those in our normal way. Remember this is not a call to discuss specifics about numbers, but we are happy to provide you with comments and, of course, any ideas or other thoughts that we have on the various aspects about our business that will directionally help you to understand how our operating and business environment has been, in this second half of the year.
Before we kick off the discussion, at this particular time, I would want to just maybe take a few minutes to give us some housekeeping rules. Please ensure you've joined the session with your full names for ease of identification when you post your questions. If you haven't, you may please just take a minute or so to rename by hovering over your name and clicking on the rename icon on this particular Zoom platform. Also, we request that you please post your questions on the Q&A tab, and as you type in those questions, please leave a note at the end with the name of your organization so that we can clearly identify you.
As usual, as is our promise as Safaricom in staying committed to diversity and inclusion, we do have a live transcript that has been made available for the comfort of anyone joining the call with hearing difficulties. You can also access this by clicking the CC tab on the bottom of your Zoom application, and you'll be able to keep up with the conversations as we go along. Finally, should you have any, or should you require any form of assistance that is not even directly related to the call, just feel free to write to us on the chat platform. My investor relations team that will support you on the back end is on hand to do that. Questions on the Q&A tab and any support that you require on the chat platform.
With that, allow me to now welcome our CEO, Dr. Peter Ndegwa, to share his updates. Peter, over to you.
Thank you. Thank you, Caroline. Please confirm that you can hear me before I start.
Yes, we can hear you, Peter. You may proceed.
Okay. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, everyone, from wherever you are. I think Caroline has given a very good introduction. I'm very happy that I'm not having to talk about numbers. I'll wait to talk about numbers at the end of the year, and it's not far out. Of course, also because we'll be going to our close period soon. As Caroline has said, Dilip and I will give you a flavor of what's happening, especially the operating environment in the two countries, but also the way the business is feeling, rather than specifics with respect to numbers. Then, of course, we'll be able to take your questions.
The first is to say, since H1, I'm sure many of you will have received the Q3 results for Ethiopia, which should give you the flavor of where that business is. We'll give you an overall view. In Kenya, we continue to see a stable, I would say, regulatory environment, and commercial momentum is solid. Then on Ethiopia, we've started to make some progress on some of what we would call some of the big ticket items that would allow us to get our pathway towards a breakeven. I'll leave for Dilip to talk about when that breakeven is going to be.
Starting with Kenya, we continue to really deliver on our strategy through what we call our mission. We are making progress. Let me start with the regulatory environment. The macros are largely stable. Inflation, GDP growth, all stable. Also currency. Interest rates continue to go the right direction. We see it in our borrowing rates and so on. I'm sure Dilip will speak to that in a few minutes. The fiscal space for government, as you know, has always been a bit of a challenge, but as you know, government is looking for alternative ways of financing the budget.
We feel that generally the macro environment is largely stable. On the regulatory environment, MTR was expiring. You know that MTR was expiring. The last phase of MTR was expiring at the end of March this year. There was a determination sometime in December from the Communications Authority to say that MTR rates would be moving from KES 0.41 and then would go to KES 0.37 from March this year. Then there's a glide path which is largely a stable declining glide path rather than a big kind of cliff to the glide path. We are largely happy with the MTR.
The other element that we had spoken about is that we have been going through the process of renewing our license. That was actually extended by another two years, and we are making progress. I believe that by the time we get to full year, we'll be able to have either concluded or at least made substantial progress. From what we have seen is all largely positive, which is great. From a business perspective, commercially, we are making progress on the GSM side, largely in line with the ways that we described our business at H1. And on the Fintech side, similarly, we are making progress. We continue to, of course, launch new products.
You'll have seen Ziidi Trader, Ziidi for Merchant, Ziidi Trader being launched, which has been very successful. You'll be happy to know that part of the Kenya Pipeline IPO actually went through Ziidi Trader, which is fantastic, especially for retail investors, because it removes barriers for retail investors who would have to open CDS accounts and so on and so forth. The second is we also launched a bond. We have been targeting about KES 40 billion over a five-year, I mean, over a period. We launched the first tranche of our Green Bond, which was actually oversubscribed by 175%. So we were able to raise KES 15 billion at a very good and attractive rate.
I should say that it also gives the opportunity for applicants to make the application through mobile money, which we are very pleased. We are partnering with the Nairobi Securities Exchange to both support the way trading works, the way access to investment works, but also, of course, leading in the way that we have showcased the first green bond in a very successful way. On the 25th celebration, as you know, at the time when we announced our results, we were celebrating. We were starting the celebrations of 25 years since Safaricom was started. We concluded that in January of this year.
It was one of the most engaging programs that we have had. We have seen that supporting customer growth, usage growth and generally the energy and even the net promoter score growth. That has come through. Just to give you an indication, we had almost 5 million recipients of different awards, from millionaires to small awards, airtime, handsets and so on and so forth, to engaging people, especially those who won on community projects that they could support, which is fantastic to see. Going on to Ethiopia. Ethiopia, you'll have seen the numbers, so I won't go through that unless you have any questions, which I'm sure Dilip and I will be able to answer.
I think the two or three big things I want to say that on the macro side, we've seen a stabilizing period on the currency side. No one knows how the currency will be affected or the issues that are going on with the oil and the Iran issue. So far, when we announced the results, the currency, the birr was trading at around 145, and today it's around 155. So just about 6%-7% depreciation over that few months, which means that it has moderated compared to the previous framing. So of course, that helps us. Also, it has also shown that the government is accessing more liquidity than was previously expected.
As I said, this is a new currency regime, so we do not know or at least cannot predict how it will pan out, but at least in the second half looks a lot better than we thought. On the second point on pricing, we said that for us to break even, there were two or three big elements that were going to have to be right. One is we had to continue. Three elements. One is we have to continue to drive commercial momentum, which you'll have seen in the numbers, both in terms of sites we have built, but also customers we have recruited.
Second, we would have had to take pricing, but that would have had to be facilitated by the regulator, regulatory interventions. Thirdly, the currency needs to be stable, or at least, not depreciate massively. On the pricing side, I'm happy to say, although it came out later, the regulator has actually started to make progress in terms of defining a price point based on what they believe that the cost of operating both data and voice should be. They have predetermined those numbers. What we are doing now is over time to increase prices so that eventually we will get to a place where our pricing of both voice and data is in line with kind of.
No, you'd call it cost, which is what the regulator has determined. We took the first price increase sometime in late December, early January, that both the market players, ourselves and Ethio telecom took the price, and it has settled well, which is what you'd want. I'm sure we'll update you on the impact when the time comes. The second piece that we wanted to be addressed is the infrastructure sharing contracting and the reference price that should be used based on the regulatory intervention. The regulator has now determined that for towers, for example, we should only pay two-thirds in birr and one-third in dollars.
Previously, it was all dollars based on the commercial contract that we had, which then allows us to have a more stable leasing cost base going forward. That's point number one. Then secondly, the price points themselves going forward. Not retroactively going forward, which we have started to implement. While it has not been fully concluded based on the revised agreements between ourselves and Ethio telecom, at least the regulator has determined those two points. Which is the Reference Infrastructure Sharing Offer price and the Reference Interconnection Offer, which is the RIO.
Those are the two elements I wanted to update and then hand over back to Dilip to say. Overall, I would say stable solid Kenya business, stable macros, commercial momentum strong in Kenya. In Ethiopia, some green shoots around the regulatory environment which allows us to have more
Caroline, we seem to have lost Peter a bit. Is it me?
No, I think we have lost him slightly. Just give him a second or so. Yeah. Oh, Peter, you're back. Okay.
Yeah. Peter, you can hear us?
He's just coming back. Yes, yes. Peter, you may conclude on your last portion. Peter, you can hear us?
I can.
Okay.
I've done. I'm now done. I was handing over to Dilip.
Okay. All right. Thank you. Dilip, over to you.
Thank you. Thank you, Peter. Thank you, Caroline. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, wherever you are. Thank you for joining the call. Peter said he's happy that he's not talking about numbers, but can I say I'm happier? Because there's a lot of numbers that I normally have to give during these calls. But on a more serious note, I think Peter covered the overall direction of the business and some of the important events in the H2. Some of which you have probably seen through the public announcement, some of you have seen from newspapers, and some of which you have seen our own disclosure through Ethiopia. I won't repeat what has been already spoken about.
Just before I talk about a little bit on the business, I wanted to thank and appreciate those of you who have shared your consensus estimates, mainly from the sell side. We typically reach out to the sell side analyst for their consensus, which you have very kindly, those of you have done. We appreciate it. We thank you for that. I think I won't go into details of, again, on consensus. I think that's for you to see and appreciate. I think some of the comments that I will make probably will help you to sharpen or to fine-tune the numbers if you need to.
Overall, I would say maybe the flavor of it is that Ethiopia probably a bit more optimistic, and Kenya probably a bit more conservative on the H2. Yeah, I think that's what gets reflected. Let me start with Kenya. What you will see, I think overall for the group is our expectation of high-quality earnings will remain intact. That is not going to change. Kenya, as always, no surprise, you'll see a dependable earnings engine. When we spoke about our numbers after half-year results, we are very happy with a few of the things that we have done extremely well, including a very good customer momentum.
It is fair to say that with our M-PESA at 18, Safaricom at 24, and Safaricom at 25, which you have just our celebration and our everything got concluded only in end of January. It is fair to say that we can continue to see customer momentum. That's fair to expect continuing in H2 as well. I think two areas. The growth engines continue to grow well and two areas where we remember we spoke about the voice not growing or voice declining in the first half. We also spoken about that towards the second half, toward the quarter two, we have seen recovery. You did mention about that H2 expectation for voice will be better than H1.
I can also say that I think you will expect a better voice performance in H2. The second one was we called out we are not so happy about our growth for fixed, especially on the enterprise. I think that's one area you'd probably see better trajectory than what you have seen in H1. Other than that, I think there is nothing much to say that our growth engines continue to deliver. On the cost side, OpEx intensity will hold. Direct cost pretty much remains predictable, no surprises. Currency, as you know, I think H1 was significantly impacted by the Kenyan shilling to euro depreciation. That has subsided.
I won't say it has gone away completely, but I think the pace, so you'll probably see a better currency impact from euro. But you have seen the dollar, you know, it was very, very steady throughout the year. I think Peter spoke about MTN, and then I think what we normally say, you know, after half year, there is always a question about dividend, interim dividend. We couldn't, of course, speak about that in H1 results, but then you have seen board declaring, and I think the payment of dividend is also expected within this month. That is another update you have seen. I'm sure all of you are fully updated. You have seen a growth in dividend over 50% compared to interim dividend of last financial year.
I think on Ethiopia, I won't say much. On commercial momentum, you have seen those. Those numbers are visible to you. We'll take any questions you have. Peter mentioned about three things which is starting with currency. I think it does help recall our discussion around the variables of a bit of breakeven for Ethiopia in FY 2027. One was currency, another was the industry, the pricing pressure. You have seen that both on the currency side, the rate of depreciation has been quite kind of modest. We are satisfied with the rate of depreciation. The industry has now absorbed price hikes both by incumbent as well as us.
It has been some time that the market is absorbing higher price ups. Although the impact of that will not be much visible in FY 2026. You recall our conversation that sets a very strong foundation for the next year as the price ups lead to a better top line performance and also leading to a better bottom line performance. I think RISO, which Peter spoke about, we have given an update in our Q3 update. Actually, that also helps us in dealing with the currency, not only stability, because two-thirds of the payout for those now will be made in local currency. Not currency denominated in foreign currency, paid in local currency, but denominated in local currency.
That also helps us in predictability, because if you have to pay in foreign currency, we have to raise money in foreign currency, which is not what is our intention. That's also a very big relief. With all of that, I think we can. I mean, there is nothing for us because we will not be speaking now a lot, so we thought that it's good time for us to reiterate that our overall group guidance, there is no reason to believe that it's changing, compared to what we have said before, and also our FY 2027 breakeven as well.
I mean, we'll talk a lot about probably in the full year results, but it is a reassurance that some of the key variables are showing up now, which was not there when we spoke, in November, December last year. That's all I wanted to say. Back to you, Caroline. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you very much, Peter and Dilip. Thanks for that overview. I trust that gives you some good color, especially around, what's been happening in our space in this second half. I do have some questions, and I encourage us to keep posting them so that we can utilize the next, one hour. We have, one hour time with you, so that we can be able to ensure the engagement is also rich and you walk away with, a lot more info, for purposes of, preparing to get to hear our actual full year results coming. I do have a question for you, Dilip, and I think we'll start with the last comment, you made, Dilip, with respect to Ethiopia, you know, on the lease fees.
Rohit is asking: How much impact do you see on lease payment with the recent renegotiations in Ethiopia?
Yeah. I think the broader impact, as I said, is on the currency. Remember, you are paying in hard currency, and this is one of the things that we were renegotiating, you know, with the regulator and also saying as part of the. Actually, this was a regulatory intervention. Asked for those rates and how much is spent to provide those services in local currency and how much you spend to provide in hard currency. That has resulted into, as I said, 2/3 moving to local currency now and 1/3 only in hard currency. That itself is a big relief for us. Of course, removes all the uncertainty around hard currency.
The rate changes as well as the availability of currency itself. Also I think, I mean, I won't be able to provide you exact number right now, but I think it is fair to say that was a good outcome. Potentially we'll see a bigger impact for next year, and we'll talk about that when we have the full year results. Bigger impact for us, what we took away was that the whole uncertainty around we can't have a hard currency denominated lease for services that we're taking in local currency.
All right. Thanks, Dilip. Now a question here on pricing, and I'll combine one that has come through from Dan and another one by Rohit. Rohit wants to know whether we can give any color on price elasticity and subscriber churn that we may have seen since December price increase in Ethiopia. Dan just wants to know, do we expect more price hikes to come?
Peter, I go ahead and yeah.
Yes.
So, uh-
Please, Dilip, go ahead. Yeah.
What probably you have seen from the public disclosure is. Also a lot of conversation around when you were. I think we have been consistently saying this, the market pricing is not appropriate given the cost of delivering those services are much higher. If you recall half year results around that, we discussed about regulator getting into that whole the piece of advisory work through the World Bank to be able to demonstrate that it is indeed the case that the operators are selling lower than the cost. What operator has determined is, you know, is kind of saying that there is a cost base, that there's a cost price reference that you will not be able to sell below that, but it's not necessarily something that can happen over time.
I think industry has taken the first step. To the other question from Dan, yes, there is more expected and timing of that and all, you know, as in when it happens, of course, we'll let you know when it happens. We expect more price ups because there is still a difference and still a, you know, big difference between the cost of providing those services and the price at which we are charging. But we can't talk about the timing of that. As and when it happens, we'll definitely let you know. To the other question on the elasticity. Peter, you wanted to say something on this?
Yes. Just one addition to Dilip's point is that voice price is closer to the cost. The price increase that is required to repair, so to say, on voice is lower. Also because there was an MTR that was existing. Data, there's much more headroom because the price at which data was being sold was much lower, even by regional standards, regional benchmarks. You'd expect that data will take time to actually conclude. As Dilip says, by the time we have our May briefing, we should be able to give you more exact details. Certainly directionally, that's the way you should think about it.
Yeah. On elasticity, I think it's too early to say because the price increases happen. The immediate feedback is that because it's an industry-wide price increase, and I think both operators have their own offering, the price mechanism of delivery of the increase has been different for different operators depending on how they have approached. So therefore, you know, you can't compare because some of the things you don't, I mean, you don't see an impact because it's an industry affair. Number one, industry-wide change. Second is also you are just not increasing price there too because you are optimizing some of the. It's not a kind of across all bundles you are increasing prices or you are increasing prices a similar level across all bundles.
I think there is a way that we try to manage it in a way that the impact is minimum for actual users. The people who are vulnerable, who use this daily, weekly, are less impacted than the people who are using it. For example, a heavy user with a heavy bundle that was significantly subsidized. There is a way which has been done, but I must say that it's also too early. We haven't seen anything for us to be able to give you any concrete evidence that it has changed anything. Of course, as I said, it's just a month 2 or month 3 of those changes.
Thank you. Thank you, Peter and Dilip. Peter, question for you here from Francis with respect to M-PESA in Ethiopia. The question is: What is the M-PESA uptick in Ethiopia looking like, and what can be done to unlock faster uptick? Are there any regulatory interventions required? Peter?
Yeah, I think it's a good question. As we have been transparent when we did either the half year results or actually even the previous year and even through the investor forums, where we have been clear that M-PESA in Ethiopia will take time to actually find pathways that the industry needs to have because the traditional cash in, cash out is not looking like the way forward. The banking penetration is actually much higher. We have been working. We do have a strategy that has been approved by the board. It is one that will take longer. To be fair, we...
Even when we guide on Ethiopia numbers, generally, we tend to be very conservative on M-PESA because we want to have the customers first, and then we can start having the use cases. I would prefer, given the stage at which we are, that we actually give a full update at the May briefing so that we can go into sufficient detail for you to understand where we are coming from. From a regulatory perspective, I feel that we have made progress generally across the board as far as regulatory interventions are concerned, both on the ECA side but also on the NBE side.
Regulatory at the moment, and as you know, we used to be constrained in terms of being able to service payments through to the public services, but that has been addressed. Regulatory issues, although they remain, is not the main factor that we are considering at this stage. I would say that we are making progress as far as the regulatory is concerned.
Thank you. Thank you, Peter. I'm still on the Ethiopia business, and I will direct this question to you, Dilip. A question here from Tracy, in terms of how are we seeing subscription growth in Ethiopia? Tracy notes that our Q3 performance was weaker than anticipated, considering the guidance of 15-17 million 90-day active subscribers.
Thank you. Thank you, Tracy, for that question. First of all, if you recall, in our half-yearly results discussion around the outlook for the full year, I think there is one area that we said that we will probably be closer to the lower end of the guidance. Not guidance. I think the part of the guidance was the customer 15-17 million. I think we would be on the lower end of the guidance. That position has not changed. I think it would be probably on the lower end of the guidance. Yeah, I think we might fall short on fifteen million. Let's see how the quarter four goes. Far, expectation is that we will be in the lower end of the guidance.
You have seen that, while we are on the slightly lower growth trajectory on the subscription side, which, you know, quarter three numbers have also demonstrated. There is. It's showing a progressive growth, although the pace of growth we're expecting on Q3 and Q4 were higher, but the fact that, it's also linked with the other factors. Remember the two numbers that we speak to other than CapEx and EBIT for Ethiopia is on the slide.
If you recall, there's another kind of a signpost that we have, signposting we have done or kind of an indication we have done also. It's more likely that you'll be falling short on the number of sites rollout as well. It's not for anything else, but actually it's part of the strategy to take stock of what you have. How do we, you know, try and find solutions also of the co-location, because remember you were renegotiating the co-location contract in the way of the. Obviously there was a bit of slowdown, I would say. Some part of it is what we intended to slow down on the sites as well. Combine these two.
I think we believe that we'll be close to the number that we have spoken about, but on the lower end, both for sites as well as for the customer.
Thanks, Dilip. Now that I still have you on the mic, a question here with respect to the oil prices. You know, with the ongoing Middle East war. That impact, I think I have quite a number of questions here on that. I'll try and combine them. Rohit asking: Please could you share how do you see the impact of increase in oil prices on earnings? Tracy asking if we have any inflation fuel price passthroughs on our lease costs. Lastly, from Lynette asking about to share the current energy reliance mix on towers in Kenya and Ethiopia and the impact on the recent spike in global oil prices and possibly oil supply shocks in both countries, plus the impact on revised margins.
Just general comments around what we see in this space, noting the ongoing crisis.
Yes. Very good question and also probably relevant question in the context of what we are dealing with now. As the situation is unfolding, there are three scenarios which can play out. One is short-term, medium-term, and long-term, depending on how long this persist. We are, of course, not specialist in forecasting of how these things will evolve, but then what you're trying to do internally to be able to see what does this mean. Because you're discussing about pre-close for FY 2026, let's just take it away that we don't see anything hurting us now. Just day before yesterday, we have seen the EPRA, which is Kenya's authority who fixes the price for the oil in the market price. They kept their prices unchanged.
These are based on the prices, forward prices or the deals that the government would have done. We don't have visibility around that, but there must be thinking how the prices, what you call, the petrol pump prices remain unchanged. First, Kenya, don't expect anything in the short term. Medium and long term is what I think is part of our current evaluation. Will that impact our numbers? Of course, it does, and it did, depending on what level of increase will happen. Those are the scenarios which we are currently evaluating to what extent it can change our energy cost. Energy cost is 50% of network operating cost.
It's although our grid is green, a lot of green in the grid power and also we have been accelerating our renewables as well, which we have done well, but I think we have still quite a bit left in terms of the renewable part of it. The good part is that we have been on that journey for long, and we are continuing to do that. That will probably come in handy as and when if there is any significant increase in the price happens, because renewable is a very good option for us to rely on.
It is for medium to long term, if this thing continues, there would be definitely an impact, which of course I do not talk about preempt it now because you're talking about FY 2026 rather than FY 2027. As we have discussed, we'll see how this thing unfolds. It is fair to say that that's impact. It just not about the cost of oil changing the cost of energy, but I think it does impact significantly on the logistics and the other parts as well, everything related to oil. So it's a whole economic impact that we have seen. If you remember, I think 2 years back, 2 and a half years back, those changes has resulted into a significant cost increase for us because the prices change materially.
Of course we are also on the short term, as I said, I think we are quite okay. We don't see impact. On Ethiopia actually has a very good grid power availability. Dependency on diesel is quite low. The bigger impact will come on Ethiopia, which is more, which for Kenya as well, I think on the inflation. Ethiopia, if you recall, is on a decline, I think December, January, from what we have seen publicly. It is the lowest inflation that we have seen in the last, whatever, I don't remember, 4, 5 years of single-digit inflation. You'd probably expect that to start coming up. Our direct impact will be coming through the inflationary pressure.
I won't say it will be material from a diesel consumption perspective because Ethiopia grid is significantly green. Also price-wise is also quite favorable. Although it's on an increasing path based on the IMF recommendation, but I think it's still significantly lower than Kenya. I think we are probably covered better in Ethiopia than in Kenya.
Thanks. Thanks, Dilip.
Can I just add 2 points? One is on the Kenya piece. As part of the risk assessment, we are also assessing the impact of disruption on supply chain because we do import lots of stuff, either bringing forward, increasing stock cover and so on, especially for equipment, given the shipping routes and so on. Both the disruption, but also potential cost increase as a result of that. The second thing is, and I think Dilip touched on it's also being attentive to, especially for Ethiopia, the impact oil could have on inflation more generally, and therefore affecting ability of customers, of consumers to buy stuff.
Because oil is an import into that country with the currency movements, we also need to be conscious of that. But for Kenya, as Dilip says, is, I think the government has been a lot better in the way that they have tried to hedge the oil prices. But who knows? Yeah. I think you guys will probably have better information than us.
Yeah. Thank you. Thank you, Peter and Dilip. Now that I have you on, Peter, just a question here from Justina with respect to Ethiopia conflict. Has the looming conflict in Tigray had any significant impact on H2 numbers in Ethiopia as residents continue to flee the region?
Two things. One is there's an election coming up in the second quarter of this calendar year. By the time we announce results, we'll be close to the election in Ethiopia. That will, as expected, give rise to potential flare-ups, which we are watching. So far, at least based on the Tigray issue, we have not faced a major issue. Of course, we have had to be very close to it. Unlikely to affect this year. From next year, we can only wait. As we lead up to the election, we need to continue to monitor the situation.
All right. Thank you. Thank you, Peter. Dilip, I'll request that you respond to a question here from Tracy. What is Safaricom's debt strategy in Ethiopia? And do we have a moratorium on repayments?
Dilip, you thought you'd get away without talking about a few numbers.
That too from Tracy. If that number doesn't go up to five questions from Tracy, then it's not a call. That was on a lighter note. Tracy, thank you for the question. I think, if you remember on, w hat do you have in our debt that we have put in? We had the big ticket debt I'm saying. The IFC debt of $100 million that you have seen that has moratorium. The one that I think you have seen in the nine months, which is the addition for the other facility that we have taken, which is, I think about up to $100 million or that number that you probably have.
That part that doesn't have a moratorium, but it does have a what you call interest roll-up. It has a moratorium. It also has a moratorium. You pay after three years, you start paying, but it has a interest roll-up as well. This was a three-year facility with interest roll-up, but it can also be extended depending on how the cash flow you know shapes as and when we need to do this. These two are really the big ticket, I could say, term loan. The rest all amount that you see as a debt in Ethiopia balance sheet are all typically one to two years short-term loan that we take in Ethiopian markets in local currency, which we typically give you the both.
We give you the local currency amount. Also we give you the dollar denominated amount. But this does not have any moratorium. You pay interest and as well as you pay back. In fact, if it is a 1-year term loan, you have to pay one year after one year. If you're a 2-year term loan, you have to pay 2-year term loan. So KES 200 million, those have moratorium. Along with we are paying interest to IFC, but we have an interest roll-up provision for the other facility that we have taken in this financial year. I hope that clarifies your question. On the strategy, I think nothing have changed, Tracy, in terms of the strategy on the debt.
I think we continue to leverage look for opportunities to see, you know, how we can get more local currency denominated loan. Within that, also try and see, you know, how we can maximize non-guaranteed loan. Which we believe the possibility of that also improves as we break even, EBITDA break even. We do, we have been successful also in managing that balance of guaranteed and non-guaranteed loan for local currency loan. Both IFC and the other facility that we have taken, which is Standard Bank, I think you've seen that in the public domain as well. It's a Standard Bank facility that we have taken. Both are guaranteed, shareholder guaranteed loan. Hope that clarifies.
Yeah. Thanks. Thanks, Dilip. An interesting question here that we came across Optasia during our half year results release when they were doing their IPO. Tracy's asking, and I think it's a good opportunity for us to clarify a little bit about this. To speak to our partnership with Optasia and if there are any new developments.
Tracy, I think the from where our initial discussion came, which was, we were a bit taken, you know, kind of we are kind of not sure about what was the communication and what is that everybody else have heard versus what we knew. I think there was a gap in that period. From where we started, over a period of time, I think that gap has narrowed. I can fairly say that team including me, I have also engaged with the team. We have had engagement. That's for both Kenya and Ethiopia. We have an engagement also for Ethiopia specific, for Ethiopia opportunities. Nothing has been. There's nothing concrete that has come out of it.
We are seeing, you know, where best we can see their strength in what they do can translate into a partnership opportunity. As we speak, there is nothing that I can tell you that we have converted into a real partnership or a signed MOU or anything. Yes, we are deeply engaging and also, you know, just not about at a high level, it's going down to the level of what are the capabilities they have, what are the complementing capabilities they have that we can make use of them. Our understanding about what they do and their capabilities are far better than I think you were discussing after the half year results. I think there was a bit of confusion.
I think at our level, there was a discussion happening probably at the working level. At Peter's level or my level, I don't think there was enough understanding of or their capability and what they can do for us. We are far better off. Better now in terms of what they do, what they're capable, what they can, but nothing has yet been converted into a real opportunity. The discussion continues. Between Ethiopia and Kenya, potentially, you know, there are some, you know, immediate opportunities could come in Ethiopia. We'll see. Of course, if there is anything comes out then we'll of course do a proper announcement, so that you get to know where you are collaborating or partnering.
All right. Thank you. Thank you, Dilip, for offering us that clarification. This one I'll leave it open to you, either you, Peter or Dilip. Just a general open question from Francis asking, "In H2 of this year, were there any key items that were below expectation?
That's a very easy question to answer. Francis, that's a full year results kind of question. Because then we'll be able to tell you and balance what we thought has gone well and so on and so forth. I think we've characterized the way H2 has progressed, both in Kenya and also Ethiopia, where we feel that we are making progress versus what we had said we would. I hope that that helps. I think in detail, I think the best thing would be to do that justice at the full year results and allow you to understand the detail a lot better.
Yeah. Thank you. Thank you, Peter, for that. Dilip, I'll direct this question to you, from Sila. How is CapEx tracking in FY 2026 guidance in Kenya and Ethiopia?
Sila, I don't know that I missed talking about it. As I said, there is no surprise. We are we I don't see any reason why we should not be within the guidance. We still have a month to go. At least based on what we have seen, I mean, I remember at a group level, we I reconfirm that we are expecting to be within the guidance. That's why CapEx is also part of that. It's tracking in line.
Yeah. Thanks. Thanks, Dilip. Follow-up questions here from Rohit. Again, looking at the performance in the first half and versus what to then expect in the second half. So he's asked a question around handset sales. Do we continue to see the slowdown in the second half, similar to what we had in the first half? And then on M-PESA commissions as a percentage of M-PESA revenue, since this has declined over the past few years and into half one, do we expect it to remain at half one level, or are there some phasing effects expected? Dilip.
I like Rohit's question. He's actually asking me to give a number. Let me give you a flavor of both, without necessarily getting into the numbers. Rohit, on handset, though if you recall our conversation again on the handsets that we have been doing quite a few iterations, which is towards how do we maximize third-party providers in this space in addition to what we have been doing ourselves. I would say, even in H2, you will see probably a similar pattern, maybe slightly better, because remember, our handset model, we buy and then we sell, but it is not, our buying and selling was not meant to generate any margin or profit.
It was meant to ensure that the handsets are in the hands of those people who has a 2G phone can now afford a 4G phone through the device financing, through our own proposition as well as the third party. I think we got some very good success through the third party partnership. What we'll try and do. Typically, in the past, probably would have spoken about a lot on our own device financing proposition, which still continues, but not at the level it was before because we found that there is a lot more uptake from the third party, and that helps us. Because it does create a balance sheet, we don't need to you know, give credit from our own balance sheet. It does.
Our objective is not to make any profit. This is a very different. The objective here is to get a device in the hands of the customer, no matter whether we do it ourselves or whether it's done by the third party, it does give the same purpose. Having said that, we do have our own, definitely our own ambition of continuing to leverage our strength through our own distribution to be able to see that, you know, how we accelerate. I can confirm you that there has not been any slowdown in terms of that objective of getting more devices in the hands of the customers, and that you will see as and when we show our numbers after the full year results. That has been done. I think.
Yeah, M-PESA commission, I won't say that I don't want to get into a number. I don't see, you will see any material change. You have seen probably a bit, you know, directionally you have seen a bit decline, but that's the mix, which is what driving the commission because there is a, you know. It used to be a lot more deposit backed. There's a lot more now. I mean, just to give you a sense of the credit as you have seen in the H1, credit has accelerated. When credit accelerates, it does bring in a lot of flow.
A lot of the money into the ecosystem, and that obviously doesn't attract a commission. I think the business model change of going from just the previous way of bringing in money to the ecosystem, and there is a shift happening. You can see that that does impact. I don't see that should change materially. Directionally, you probably will see a lower percentage than what you've seen, but it's not material. We'll see, you know, and finally the numbers we report. There is not necessarily any big shift in M-PESA commission as a percentage of the revenue.
Thank you, Dilip. There's a question here from Lynette, and I would request that, Dilip, you also respond to this one. Regarding Safaricom's handset inventory, the question is it sufficient to adequately meet demand for March 2026 in Kenya after factoring in logistical shocks? That one, Lynette, I will tell you, yes, we do have sufficient inventory for this FY. But the second part of the question, Dilip, is please share an update on Ethiopia's handset distribution plan and financing.
I think we can reserve some of these questions for full year. I think, I mean, it's not going to change materially between what you have seen in the H1 and H2. When we were with Wim and discussing about the opportunities, I think this is one of the much bigger opportunity. Within our network, I think our proportion is much higher because we have been driving the mobile data as the biggest growth lever. Obviously we do have in our network, in fact, proportion of those are even, although on a smaller base, even higher than in Kenya. There is a lot of work to be done, especially on the device financing side, which we have not necessarily scaled.
I think they have done few trials here and there, but nothing came out as part of a sustainable strategy. One of the reason being, you know, Kenya balance sheet allows you to do few of those things in at a scale. But Ethiopia balance sheet, it doesn't necessarily give you that enough headroom to be able to just go out and do a big scale own funded balance sheet funded handset financing plan. You have to be very measured there because that money is also you know, the money, the resources are constrained now, so what do you use that capital for? Should we use it for device financing or should we do it for one more sites or 10 more sites to be done? I think that sits more towards that, you know, because we still rolling out.
The other constraint came in the way of the normal credit availability. I think the success of that ecosystem working well in Kenya is also third party. Those platforms are very established, have been there for long, and they are. I mean, they have dealt with many of those challenges, and they are able to provide through their own capital and also backed by some of the banks or other capital, that's required. Ethiopia, because of what I would say, the cap on the. For the banks, for the cap on the growth, the credit growth they can do year-over-year, I think they are focusing more on the secured credit, guaranteed credit rather than. They have a choice, and they are constrained by they cannot grow a certain percentage more than last year.
I think this will probably be opening up. You are getting ready to see when that opens up, what will enable that to happen. We are also in touch, in discussion with the partners that we work with in Kenya. What is their appetite for increasing that in Ethiopia. I think with all the macros becoming, we are in a more stable environment and industry view is also changing. I think we'll probably see better traction going forward. Sufficient to say at this point in time, there are a few trials, but this is one area I think we have to be more deliberate and see, you know, which partnership model can work for us to accelerate growth, including the partnership through the manufacturer themselves, which we see here there is a lot more.
In Kenya, there is a lot more appetite for the partners who are providing the chip for us to manufacture locally here. They are also willing to give, have the balance sheet, capacity to be able to do that in Kenya. I think that there would be few models that will work out, but it's probably for the medium to long term, not necessarily right now, the short term.
All right. Thank you. Thank you, Dilip. Next question here from Hezron, and this, I'll request to Dilip that you also respond to this one. On 5G, what is the monetization model for 5G beyond premium data plans? And when does 5G contribute materially to revenue rather than just CapEx?
Let's just acknowledge that when 5G was launched, and I think it has happened in every country. We came late, but we are the first one to launch. There are, of course. Initially, you start thinking that you can monetize through a separate 5G plan. But I very quickly realized that that's not how it is going to work. On the mobile broadband side, it's more about you are monetizing better quality, better speed, and therefore leading to a higher usage, and that we have seen. You know, if you have the device, if you are using 5G, it is very much evident that you consume more.
For mobile broadband, it's more about usage and it delivered at a fraction of a cost that you can deliver from the previous or, you know, any in any other technology. You are able to provide much more capacity and therefore the usage at a lower cost. I mean, this has been I mean, no matter how much you say, this is how it has been across all the countries which has launched. Therefore you. If there was a model that you can just replicate without having a device to come in, I think we would have done it before. That's why we said that we are going by the model evolution as far as the 5G is concerned for the mobile broadband side of it.
The one which has worked well for us and which is what we are excited about is how do we see FWA, given that a very generous band of spectrum that we have in all the bands for 5G. We thought that we can leverage or bridge the gap of the what you call the fiber broadband footprint. The objective is not to have a permanent FWA proposition, but there is always a time to catch up in some areas that you don't think it is you can deliver it today, but you're able to do it through FWA and we are delivering. We are very conscious about it. You'll see in the markets, I think we are intentionally, we took a call saying that we do 5G FWA.
First of all, customer experience is better. I mean, speed could be as good as a fiber, if not better in some of the areas, in some of the plan. It's a very good proposition. We are able to actually monetize through the FWA, both on the consumer as well as on the business side. I think if you just go see the numbers even for half year, you see that acceleration. I think we provide that number as well also on the FWA versus fiber. You see a better acceleration on the FWA side. That's really what we are looking at, but our footprint is also not large.
We are expanding, but we are just one third of the countries only covered through 5G because the ecosystem of devices have not yet evolved to the extent that we want. We don't want to just put in sites without necessarily knowing whether we can monetize or not. It's a combination of FWA and the mobile broadband that I spoke about is what we are monetizing. Yes, we'll see, you know, how this shows up, you know, in the revenue. I think we started now giving you the customer numbers. I think we'll see how we can also start talking about the revenue that we generate from those, the 5G investment that we have made.
Thanks, Dilip. Thanks, Dilip, for that. I see two more questions on my queue. I'll take these as the two last questions before I request Peter to give his closing remarks. Unless there's any other burning question, if you could please post it, otherwise I'll take these two as the last ones. There's a question here from Evan. This is to you, Dilip. Do you foresee any material impact from the staggered MTR reduction?
I can go first on that.
Sure.
Yeah. Evan, in the context of FY 2026, we actually have only one month, the previous KES 0.41 per minute was up to February end, and then from this month, March, we are on KES 0.37 . As you can understand, it's one month and also in the context of the bigger picture, I think that is not material. I think staggered is good for the industry, and this is what we have always been. Those of you who have followed us for the longest time, many questions that were asked when MTR was changing. You remember those KES 0.99- KES 0.58 , KES 0.58 to KES 0.41 .
Peter was very categorical when that question was asked to him and to me, "What is the best outcome for the industry?" We always said that not a big drop, sudden big drop. I think a staggered re-reduction does help industry to cope up with the changes. I mean, you mostly see that. That's actually I've seen also in the way it has come down. When 58 cents - 41 cents, we haven't seen, I mean, we have not seen a material impact in the business, and we don't see a material impact. I think I would say to be honest, we never had a staggered MTR in this for us here for the longest time. So we have been, you know, always as an industry, we are saying it's better.
There is more certainty. We have a four-year timeline and there is a gradual path to it. It's good for the industry. Of course there would be an impact on the incoming revenue to the extent it is coming down. But I think the business can absorb it rather than a big rate decline in one single year. That's what would be my response to you, Evan.
Thanks. Thanks, Dilip. Okay, I do not see any additional questions. The last one I'll request that Peter, you respond to it as you also give us your closing remarks. Shruti congratulates us for the call and indeed for the launch of Ziidi Trader. She is asking for some KPIs. Shruti, we shall provide you with the specific KPIs at full year. For now, maybe Peter, if you could just make some comments around the Ziidi Trader as you give us your closing remarks.
Yes. Ziidi Trader is very exciting for us and may not be actually a big revenue earner, but from an enablement perspective for our customers and retail investors, it's fantastic because it gives an opportunity for retail investors to trade on shares and not having to go through the kind of onerous process that retail investors would have to go through. There are so many people who are excluded. Of course, we are testing with one broker. And then once that whole test is complete and fully done, then we'll expand it so that it is much more broader. But hopefully this is just an example of the kind of products that we can launch.
Within a week of launch, actually within a few days of launch, it was used for part of the KPC, which is the Kenya Pipeline IPO, which was already on. We saw a lot of interest. Indeed, at some point, based on the daily trades, not the value of trades made, but the volume of trade made, Ziidi Trader had quite a good proportion. I don't want to say those numbers. I'm sure we'll give you a kind of a view of our period, so that is most of the numbers. We are very excited about it. Nairobi Securities Exchange is also excited.
Of course, we are in test phase as part of or pilot phase, so to say, but it's live. Eventually we will include all other brokers as the case may be. In conclusion, I hope that you have all had a good update on our business. Both the two countries stable macros in Kenya, which is fantastic. Also stable regulatory environment, which allows us to have a lot more certainty. Actually, as we get into FY 2027, we feel a lot more certain in terms of the parameters, the planning parameters, which we'll share with you in May.
Of course, an improving environment in Ethiopia, which is good. Hopefully, the currency continues to be gradual in terms of its depreciation. No one can know, given all the war issues that are happening at the moment. So far, an improving environment. On the regulatory side, at least the intervention the regulators have made have started to shape the path towards breakeven. We still maintain an FY 2027 breakeven. I know that myself and Dilip have never been believed on this, but we still maintain that. Hopefully by the time we are having the full year results, we'll have a lot more certainty around the lead up to the elections, and how that is showing up.
On the Kenya side, we see a resilient business as we have said, and that also gives us the opportunity to actually have a stable base or a strong foundation for next year. Looking forward, given we are going into a close period, looking forward to briefing you in two months. All the very best and have a great evening and a great afternoon. Thank you. Over to you, Caroline, if you have any final comments.
Thank you. Thank you, Peter. Thank you, Dilip. Thank you, everyone. Thanks for making time to join this call. As Peter has said, we'll get to see you post the 7 May. Look out for that. I trust you walk out of here with good clarity about our business operations and directionally where we are looking to close this FY. Thank you so much once again, good day and good evening.