Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Adani Energy Solutions Limited Q2 FY 2025 Earnings Conference Call. We have with us on the call today, Mr. Kandarp Patel, CEO, AESL, Mr. Kunjal Mehta, CFO, AESL, Mr. Anupam Misra, Head Group Corporate Finance, and Mr. Vijil Jain, Head IR, AESL. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the call, please check the operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Kandarp Patel. Thank you, and over to you, sir..
Hello. Good morning, and best wishes to all, investors and analyst friends who have joined on the call. I hope all of you must have got an opportunity to go through the results that we have published and uploaded on our website. I think, yeah, this was a very strong performance that we recorded in quarter two. And, in fact, all the three existing business, which is transmission, distribution, and smart meter, are in a phase of massive growth. You must have seen those numbers. Another business that we were incubating so far, which was, which is, C&I in power solutioning business. I think, from next quarter onward, we will see contribution coming also from this vertical.
During quarter, AESL raised equity in of INR 8,300 crore through QIP route, and in fact, very helpful to AESL for fueling this CapEx growth and in transmission and smart metering. In the current quarter, besides the project under execution, which was INR 17,000 crore, we have secured four new transmission projects. Our project under construction has reached to INR 31,700 crore from INR 17,000 crore. Once those projects are completed of the INR 31,700 crore, it will contribute EBITDA of about INR 4,200 crore. The timeline of these projects, entire INR 31,700 crore CapEx, will be around two years, so 24 months.
So you will see those assets getting commissioned in the current year, next year, and some of them in the early part of next to next year. In the current quarter, in fact, we did extremely well as far as the CapEx deployment is concerned. We deployed a CapEx of INR 3,000 crore in the last quarter. That was 2.5x of the CapEx that we deployed same quarter last year. And same is the case in the total CapEx of first half of the current year, which is INR 4,400 crore, which was against INR 2,000, which is against 1.7x of the CapEx that we deployed in the same period last year.
As I said, in fact, in our business, it is important to understand that whenever we deploy CapEx, then we put at extent lock-in profitability. So as at, if asset is long gestation, it might reflect at a particular time. But as investors, if you have those numbers, then you are secure that this kind of profitability or revenue has already been locked in. So in fact, as a AEML, AESL, we only monitor CapEx number on a quarter to quarter and a month-to-month basis. This CapEx number will also get accelerated for a simple reason that first half was also having a monsoon.
Now we will have a clear season for next six months, and we think that we'll be able to close this year with a CapEx of about INR 10,000 crore at least. Now this will probably bring the growth in EBITDA that we projected, which will be in excess of 15%. As far as operational update is concerned, we continue to do excellent work as far as operation is concerned. We maintained that availability of 99.7%. As a result, we also on 35%. We added 140 circuit kilometer to our network, and now we have reached to 33,000 circuit kilometer plus. As far as distribution is concerned, the growth in electricity scale was to the tune of 7%.
Continuously with our endeavor, we have been able to reduce distribution losses further, which has reached 4.85%. With all this effort on operation and project side, the financial numbers also accordingly show up the result. Revenue increased by 23%, reaching INR 2,200 crore. EBITDA has well increased by 31%, it has reached INR 1,891 crore. Similarly, PAT also increased, steep growth and reached INR 727 crore. Similarly, cash profit has also shown very healthy growth, and it has reached INR 1,026 crore. While we do this CapEx, but we make sure that we operate this business with a financial prudence and discipline.
We have also maintained that net debt to EBITDA at the 3.1x. Now, as far as the outlook is concerned, transmission remains the major area where we will continue to focus. India is a massive opportunity as far as transmission is concerned. Besides, we already got four projects, but still, the bidding which is going to happen in next six to seven months' time is of the order of INR 85,000 crore. We expect that we will maintain our market share. There could be opportunity to increase the market share as well, but we will make sure that we follow the prudent investment decision.
And even if we take the current market share, then we hope to get about INR 15,000 - 20,000 crore what project more in the next six months time. Distribution, the RAB currently is 8,400, and it is going to grow as we continue to invest in distribution network in Mumbai. In fact, one of the project which was supposed to commission in last to last quarter got delayed because of geographical stockpile. But now that project is on track, and we expect that to commission in the next quarter. That will add about INR 1,000 crore of RAB into Mumbai asset base. As far as Smart Meter is concerned, now we have started progressing very well.
In fact, in last quarter, we deployed about close to about 4 lakh meters at the rate of about 4,200 m per day. In October, so far, we are deploying about at the rate of about 7,000 m per day. Now we expect to significantly step up the implementation plans, because now we will have that clear season without any monsoon. We expect to add about 30-35 lakh meter in next six months. So we will, we will close year by with the installation of about 50-52 lakh meters. So these are the basic details, and I'll, I'll hand over to all other friends.
We will give further details during the question- and- answer.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask questions, you press star and one on your dashboard. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Prior to the question, we use handset while asking questions. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. To ask questions, please press star and one. First question is from Mohit Kumar, from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, sir. So first question on the transmission. Can you help with the transmission CapEx, which you do for next three years based on the current pipeline? Could you possibly talk about the expected EBITDA of the locking portfolio?
So, Mohit, as I said, the project under construction is of the order of INR 52,000 crore, which is already secured. And this timeline of all these projects are about two years, so 24 months. And we also expect to add another INR 15,000 crore, at least, to this kitty. So it will reach to about INR 55,000 crore of projects under the implementation. And with that, we will have a EBITDA in excess of INR 5,000 crore. In fact, with this INR 52,000 crore project under construction, it will contribute about INR 4,200 crore. And another 15,000 projects will contribute about INR 1,600-1,700 crore of EBITDA.
This will happen over the 24, and the new project that we will get will be in 30 months from now, without the limits.
. Understood, sir. Given the fact that there is a huge bidding opportunity, I think Qatar has been great, and I think you have won your fair share. That's why I believe H2 seems to be looking to be again a very busy opportunity. How do you feel about the can you just explain us the transmission bidding opportunity and the pipeline is looking for the next 18 to 24 months?
Mohit, we have clarity as far as the next six months is concerned. Those projects are already identified for bidding, approved for bidding, and processes lead to a certain level. In next six months, Mohit, we expect to witness a bidding of about INR 85,000 crore CapEx of transmission project. In fact, this also includes two HVDC project, which were supposed to get bidded in last quarter, but it has spilled over the. Now it will go under the bidding. Then on a long-term horizon, one to one and a half year, there will be another at least a lakh crore of CapEx that will come under the bidding.
Understood. So in Khavda, there are two HVDC, right? First one already happened, the second one is it happen in the second half, or do you think it will take another, like, maybe spill over to [2026]?
Yeah. So, certainly it will happen in the second half. And another HVDC, which is the Rajasthan HVDC, which got re-bidded, is likely to happen very soon.
Just looking apart from one quarter, which already happened in the other two HVDC, right?
Correct. Correct. Correct. One of Rajasthan and one of Sabla.
Understood, and then on the second of this meter, of course, it's about 35 lakhs in next six months. We are trying to reach INR 42 lakh by the end of FY 2025. How do you think about FY 2026 and 2027, given the progress on all these areas? Is there something with a number which you can guide us?
Mohit, come again, sorry. Number for the next year?
For the next year, FY 2026 numbers, and FY 2027, given your portfolio.
So, Mohit, what we have got right now is about 2.6 crore meter. We will complete about 65 in the current year. But now all those issues that we had, in fact, you know, when you start implementation, there are a lot of integration issue and there are a lot of coordination which is required to be done with the distribution, because you are getting into their operations. So their processes are also need to be aligned, and your processes are also need to align with the distribution company's processes. And every distribution company has a different processes for billing and meter installation and bill collection. So we have gone through that entire phase, entire integration is done.
Everything is working stable, and now we only have to go and deploy meters on the ground. So in fact, in the current month, we had seen it ramping up to 10,000 m a day from 4,000 m, which was there in the last quarter. With that kind of work that we have done on the ground, at least we'll be able to add about a crore meters in the next year and balance one in the subsequent year. And meanwhile, we will also add another meter as and when opportunity comes in. So about 10 crores bidding opportunities yet to come further in the way.
I think a couple of bids are out there, right, sir? Tamil Nadu is one large one, which I think is supposed to have, I think, just about last year, it will close. Am I right with that?
Yeah, yeah, so Tamil Nadu, we expect that, it should get closed in a couple of months' time.
Understood. So last, the last question on the C&I of 50, 57. We are trying to figure out what your target is, what is the business model, what are the business model? Can you just please help us with some kind of basic here?
Yeah, yeah. So, Mohit, this is very exciting thing, especially personally for me, because I started my career with the power trading role. That's, that's my first love with that, this C&I business. See, what we have done, and what we have realized is that, now with the growing economic activity in the country, there are many, many customers who has a very distinct requirement, which the conventional distribution company are not able to meet. Like, if you take a case of data center, they would want a certain level of reliability. At the same time, they would want certain percentage of green penetration.
They would also want power supply to commence infrastructure to get ready in a particular time frame, because then they will have to. They will also have a similar back-to-back contract with the other players. Now, this offers a huge opportunity because we have a presence in generation, renewable generation, transmission, as well as distribution, and as a distribution or retail arm, we will be able to leverage our renewable capacity that we are creating in the group. And in this context we started in-house, so last year we commenced this kind of activity for cement business, port business, and Wilmar business. In fact, today we are managing power supply to about 100 establishments of these three businesses across the country.
And having tested ourselves, now we have started getting into contracts and with a third party. In fact, currently, we already have a contract about 20 MW. We are into active discussion for contracts for about 100 and 250 MW. So, roughly, in fact, by the year end, we will be able to close or we'll have a volume of about 5,000 million units, and that will contribute on an annualized basis of about INR 150 crore of EBITDA. Going forward, and this, I'm talking without any major contract with any data center player.
There also, we are actively discussing with Google and Microsoft of the world, and we hope that we'll be able to finalize contracts with them very, very soon. This is going to be a very exciting business for you know, you'll see a lot of action happening in this side, in next quarter. And largely you will see a lot of activity in next financial year.
Understood, sir. Thanks, and all the best. Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. Next question is from [Beck Logro from Ted Betseller] . Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe first, on the smart metering deployment, how difficult is it to ramp up from, I know you guys said you guys were at 4,000 a day, now, you know, 10,000 a day. What's the biggest bottleneck for you, why you're not doing more on a daily basis? Is it labor? Is it inventory of the meters itself? Can you just help explain that?
See today, so far, we were constrained by two, three factors. Obviously, one, we have multiple geography and, so we have a contract with, Assam, Andhra, Bihar, Maharashtra, and, Uttarakhand, and BEST, a distribution company in Mumbai. So when you start deploying meters in any geography, first you have to, get those integration done with a distribution company. That takes some time. So what we did, we started with, one by one distribution company. First we started with Assam, then we started Bihar, then Maharashtra, then, Andhra, and now we have also started Uttarakhand. So as, as we were starting, geography one by by one, the total rate of deployment was less. And also, there were the issues around, getting a good labor.
Now, having integrated with all the distribution company and having arranged all those contracts and skilled labor, in fact, we have undertaken a massive training program and we trained about 10,000 people as far as metering is concerned, and that is helping us now. With this kind of situation, now we feel that we'll be able to significantly ramp up the rate. We have already reached to 10,000 from 4,000, and we expect to take it up to 16,000 to 20,000. We'll operate between 16,000 to 20,000 meters a day from next quarter onward.
Thank you. That's super helpful, and then on the CapEx guidance, I think you said somewhere around two thousand crore for the year, which implies, I guess, you know, just over, you know, six and a half thousand for the rest of the year. Can you just maybe break down how much of that is gonna be between the three kind of segments of transmission, distribution, smart metering? And should we expect, you know, relative to the first half of smart metering to have, you know, its significant growth?
Out of this INR 10,000 crore, the transmission would be around. Sorry, distribution would be around INR 1,600-INR 1,700 crore. The smart metering would be around INR 3,000 crore, and the rest will be from a transmission side.
[audio distortion]
The biggest advantage of AESL to us is that eventually AESL's profitability is largely defined by the CapEx. Now, since we operate in three segments, even if there is some slippage in CapEx and in some business vertical. We have an option and opportunity of pushing the CapEx in another vertical of the business. In fact, that makes AESL distinct from all of the players in the market.
I agree, and then maybe just one more. I think, you know, you guys talked about how EBITDA has grown at a CAGR of about 9% over the last four years. It was 15%, on a trailing twelve-month basis, as of the end of the second quarter. Can you just maybe, can you just talk about where you expect EBITDA growth to go from here? You know, should we expect about that 15% rate to accelerate, or maybe just create some framework for us?
Certainly it will be in excess of 15%. Now, if you see the already the project under execution and those projects including smart meters will get concluded in next couple of years. That itself is INR 50,000 crore of CapEx. And therefore the growth is going to correspond to that kind of CapEx, which will. In my view, it will be in excess of 20%.
Perfect. Thank you very much. Really appreciate the time.
Thank you. The next question is from Dhruv Munjal from HDFC Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you so much. The first question is on the C&I business. I guess, can you target only the ISTS connected customers, or you can even approach the intra-connected customers? I mean, just try to understand what's the landscape you can.
So, Dhruv, we can connect. We can target both. In fact, ISTS as well as intrastate consumers. You must have noticed that open access regulation, which has come from for this green energy. The earlier restriction of allowing open access for consumer up to one megawatt has also been diluted for green energy. Therefore, in fact, virtually all the customer in the country can become target for you.
All right, got it and what's the tariff model here? Say, for example, any grid developer, do you have project group and a separate contract with the customer, and you have these three models. So how does the model work, the economic model?
What we do is we assume a responsibility end-to-end and up to the delivery of power, and also maintaining those connected assets so that the reliability is ensured. Even last mile connectivity, if we need to invest, we invest and maintain that part. From a sourcing side, we will have a bunch of assets that we will secure. See, one of the biggest advantage that you can create is also from the diversity and aggregation of demand and supply.
Now, if you have on one side, number of assets, supplying power to you, and on the other side, you have a number of customers, then you will also be able to create a lot of advantage because of diversity in demand and also in generation, and also from aggregation side.
Got it. Got it. Perfect. That's helpful, sir. And, so the second question is on the, on the, transmission, the output and bidding. So if one looks at the overall landscape, it seems one of the larger players in the system has got a very reasonable book now, because it seems has been more aggressive in the... I mean, has the largest share in the past. So do you think, and one of the concerns with the transmission sector earlier was that the IRR, because of bidding and also the players. Given the changing landscape, do you think IRRs would be better at future bids than some recent bids, or, they'll still, the interest will be very high?
So, Dhruv, you must have seen the IRRs have increased in recent times in the bidding. The level of aggression certainly has reduced. We expect that and if not, it will further you know allow us to increase IRRs, but at least we don't see any condition where there'll be a lot of aggressive bidding, forcing you to reduce your IRR.
Got it.
I don't see it that is happening, because already 85,000 notified for bidding and another one lakh more will come in next year and in that timeframe. There is a huge pipeline available for all the players.
Got it. And so lastly, is that with the execution timeline, where the system is allowing around 24 months, 18, I think now it's about 24 months, which still seems a bit tight given the overall execution cycle that we have seen historically. So when you build capacity, do you consider that complete period of 6, 9 months? As we have seen some of your projects and some of our peers also, typically execution after 2.5 years or 3 years. So, do you consider that when you are looking for bids or when you build for these IRRs, or how is the framework that you think, or 24 months is, you think is executable?
... So, we certainly make a detailed analysis before we take a call, and whenever we are sure, both in terms of supply and execution, that we'll be able to complete in the time, then only we don't load it, and if there is a possibility of any delay, then we will certainly factor those kind of costs in our model, but see, so most important for us is, and that is how we feel that we don't usually get into those kind of a situation, because we do lot of preparatory work before we bid, and even before we go on the ground for execution.
Yeah. It's, thank you so much for helpful and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Bharat Shah, from ASK Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Yeah, I was lost out on the call in between, plus I couldn't fully comprehend your answer to the previous question. But on smart meter, I wanted to understand what is, what are the constraints on the rollout? Because four thousand or ten thousand still sounds very modest and very inconsequential kind of a rollout of smart meters.
So Bharat Shah, what I was replying to the earlier question is, that we had about six different geography. We started to implement in different geography, one by one. And when you go, when you start deploying meter in particular geography, you have to integrate with the distribution system, and you also have to integrate and demonstrate your entire smart meters, and architect, and platform to the distribution company. Once they approve, then you start deploying on the ground, and with a full resources. Now, as we were starting geography one by one, therefore the implementation rate was lower, and there were also issues around manpower availability. So both the issues now we have sorted.
We have started implementing and integrated with all the six distribution companies. Now, having sorted out the contractor and manpower issues as well, from 4,000 to 10,000, we have reached in a one-month period, and we hope to take it to 15,000 plus, and we will continue to operate at that level.
If you roll out 15,000 also a day, that will take you at the most, at a max, to about 5 million for the next year. So that actually sounds a very small number to my mind, unless I missed something. I thought you earlier mentioned that you expect to roll out about one crore meters next year. If I heard it correctly, that's what I understood.
Correct.
If you roll out 15,000 meters, then you will do only five-
Bharat Shah. Yeah, yeah, Bharat Shah, I'm talking, I'm talking about the current geography. If I add geography, then those numbers will get added.
Okay. So, what exactly... How many smart meters did we roll out last quarter? How much do we expect-
Yeah, yeah. So last quarter, Bharat Shah, we rolled out 3.6 lakh meter. We have reached total of 6.73 lakh meter. And in the current year, the balance six month, we plan to add another 3 0 - 35 lakh meter.
That one should reach about 30 lakh meters by the end of the year.
Yeah, 30 to 45. And Bharat Shah, why we are confident is because now that season is good, so we in fact also faced quite a good amount of constraint because of extended monsoon. But now that the season is over, so we expect that our deployment rate will continue and it will improve significantly.
Out of the awarded contract so far, how much do we expect to roll out next year?
Next year, it could be around 70 lakh meter out of our awarded contract.
Do you expect to add another 30 lakhs from the new contracts that you may hopefully win?
Correct. And this again, I'm giving a conservative number, Bharat Shah. We will certainly try and push those numbers at a higher level as well.
And are we facing any on-ground resistance of any kind, either from customers or others, in terms of this rollout?
So, there are resistance, not mainly from a customer, but all those motivated factors on the ground. But that's a part of business. We have to deal with that and find your way in implementing it.
So that's not the key reason why there is a delay, or-
No, no, no. It is the it was.
Okay.
It affected us to a certain extent, to begin with, but now I don't see that reason which is going to stop us.
... Okay. The economics of the smart meter that we had originally understood, roughly about INR 11,000 cost, roughly about INR 1,000 comes from the government as an upfront subsidy. The balance about INR 9,000-INR 10,000 is what you earn over a period of nine years rollout, per meter, is revenue. Almost about 85% of which is the operating profit in the business. So the economics , right?
It remains unchanged, Bharat. Just one caveat, the subsidy that comes from government is not thousand, it is 900 .
Okay. Yeah, no, I said ballpark numbers. I was just rounding off and, making, broad numbers. Also, there were slight breaks in the current quarter. I could not fully, figure that out. So, net-net, there has been its, credit in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, what is the expected, tax liability we need to provide, we should count?
Basically, this quarter itself, we had just one-time reversal of the MAT credit, which AEML distribution business was accounted. Other than that, there is no any expected reversals in the future years. We are expecting an effective tax of around 20%, which will continue as before.
So for the second half of the current year, we should count 20% as the effective tax rate, right?
Correct. Correct.
Separately for second half, I'm not talking of mixing with the first half.
Yes.
For the second half separately, it will be 20%.
Correct.
And this is expected to stay the course, going ahead.
Yes.
Okay. One last question on Microsoft and Google transactions. I thought one of the transactions already happened and is in the bag. Something to that effect, I read the announcements in the papers. Maybe I'm mistaken, if you can highlight on that.
You are right, Bharat. You are right, Bharat. There was an announcement that was for Google contract, where they had a long-term power purchase contract with Adani Green for their power part requirements of existing data center or the data center, which is under construction either at Noida. What I am talking is beyond that, that's only a power supply PPA between AGEL and Microsoft, sorry, Google. Now, and that's only meeting a part requirement. Essentially, these data center companies wanted someone to handle their entire power supply management, because they, they don't have the kind of knowledge or expertise of managing this complex regulatory system, as well as managing supply on the round, around-the-clock basis.
So that is where we see an opportunity, and in fact, we are discussing with Google, Microsoft, and many other players, where they wanted us to design an energy solution for them, which will define the extent of green energy that we will supply, kind of reliability and timeline. So those two transactions or these two are very distinct one.
Broadly, as I understood, roughly for sticking together the entire solution, that is arranging power that makes ensuring safe, reliable supply arrangement remaining by sticking together that solution with the various sources. You can hope to make about INR 1.5 of fees per unit.
Bharat, it will not only be a stitching, but sometimes you might also have to invest, like, last mile connectivity. And with one of the players that wanted a power solution, we are also investing and for them in last mile connectivity and we view a small transmission line is to be created. So, it will mostly a stitching, but you might also require to invest somewhere to make sure that whatever agreed deliverable that you have signed off that is delivered. And as far as margins are concerned, it obviously would depend on lot many factors, including terms and condition and risk style of that particular contract. And that would range right from INR 1 to depending on the risk profile of the contract.
If the only solutioning or services to be provided, like we do for our group companies, where they carry all the risk, those margins are around INR 0.10.
... And these arrangements potentially can run into hundreds of crores of units, particularly thousands of crores of units to be supplied, in a year, potentially, isn't it?
Yeah, correct. So, what we are targeting is about 7,000 million-10,000 million units in a couple of years.
700- 1,000 crore units in couple of years.
No, so 700-1,000 crore units.
Okay. Thank you so much. Thank you, brother.
Thank you. Next question is from Ajay Sharma, from Maybank. Please go ahead.
Hi, I just want to check, what's the IRR you are getting on the new transmission projects you just won?
Around 15.
Okay. And what's increasing the regulatory risk for the distribution business that you are targeting every year?
We do CapEx of about INR 1,700 crore-INR 1,800 crore and minus depreciation-
600- 700.
600-700. So around 800-1,000 crore addition of RAB every year.
What's the recurrent regulation?
It is 8,405. .
Okay. So about 23%, so every year, is it?
Correct. See, and why we have been able to add lot of CapEx in Mumbai Distribution Company, so there, you not only add CapEx in distribution, but you also add CapEx in transmission. And we see lot of CapEx coming from transmission side within Mumbai, because as demand is increasing in Mumbai, there is an urgent need to augment transmission capacity within Mumbai. In fact, one of the projects that I mentioned in the call earlier, which got delayed because of one geological surprise, that project itself is about thousand crore.
All right. Okay. Just a small housekeeping question. If I look at your [balance] sheet, right, if I look at the plant and equipment and right of use assets and capital work in progress, I mean, the difference between the standalone numbers and the consolidated number is more like INR 300 crores. So, I mean, where is your CapEx? You said is more like INR 2,000 crores. I mean, where is the difference actually? Did you get rid of some equipment or what?
The CapEx of Mahanagar, Dahanu Power Plant.
Correct. One is on account of 2,300 on account of Dahanu Power Plant. Plus there is certain recognition of the CapEx is also done under service concession accounting for the smart meter part. So combination of both that, if you add that, you will get to 4,400 or so of CapEx incurred during the year. But most important reason is 2,300 of the asset, which was carved out for the Mahanagar Power.
So let me just outline that, Dahanu Power Plant is a 500 MW coal-based thermal power plant, which is housed under the Adani Electricity Mumbai Limited. For AES configuration, that the Board of AEML decided, AEML-AES, in fact run a process and based on that, it has been carved out. So based on that, AEML does not, in AEML or AES, it does not own any coal-based generating power plant. So that this is the, and it's a book e-6ntry of INR 8,300 crores of assets.
The service concession for smart meter, is that for other non-exclusive, where does that sit in?
Other financial assets.
Other financial assets. Okay. Okay. Thank you.
If you look at the cash flow, the cash flow will show a CapEx of 3,900 odd, and the balance one part of the service concession accounting under other financial assets.
Yeah, got it. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Pavithra Sundaram from Apollo. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thanks for the call. Can you give us some information on this HVDC with most of the projects program? How the update on the shareholding that is allowed to not be published, and what are the next steps and expected outcome?
So this is the show cause notice that has been sent by SEBI to the shareholders as well as to AESL, and AESL has made a disclosure to that effect. In due course we will be responding to that. There's something additional to that, that we want to disclose at this point, and also to clarify, it has nothing to do with the company per se. It is because it is the company which is listed, and hence no show cause notice has been sent to it. But it is more pertaining to the shareholders than the [cross talk]
... Thank you. Next question is from Marc Maurer from Investment. Please go ahead.
Can you hear me?
Yeah, go ahead. We can hear you.
Yeah, I just wanted to confirm the current regulatory activity for transmission and distribution business, and also how is it expected to grow?
The transmission business has two parts to it. One is Section 62 assets, and the second is Section 63 assets. The Section 62 assets are the ones which have regulated equity. The Section 63 assets is where we break out the tariff number, and once we complete this project, we receive the tariff on a monthly basis based on the breakout schedule. So we will not have a regulated equity number for the transmission business overall. Whatever we do on the Section 62 side, that number is there, and that number I think the team can separately provide to you or we can tell them.
So Anupam, just to add what you said, in AESL, where we have transmission business, there are few initial project which was on a fast track basis where there is a regulated equity. So because we don't add any regulated RTM project, so there could be few RTM project like currently whatever is regulated equity in transmission, which is about-
[3,000].
Huh?
[3,400].
INR 3,400 crore. When we commission this HVDC transmission in Mumbai, about INR 2,000 crore of regulated equity will get added. As far as AEML is concerned, the regulated equity is about INR 6,000 crore. As we do a CapEx of about INR 1,800 crore every year, INR 1,700-INR 1,800 crore, we'll continue to add about INR 500 crore of regulated equity into it.
Yeah, perfect. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from Sagar Sareen, from Sunidhi Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, thanks for taking my question. On this smart meter project, you mentioned about 35 lakh installation in H2. So, assuming INR 900 you get for it, does this mean like in terms of revenue, you will be about INR 300-400 crore revenue for H2 from smart meters, or the revenue accrues much later? How do we account for smart metering revenues and-
That INR 900 will accrue with a time lag of about two to two and a half months. Once we deploy, then we have to go and demonstrate to distribution company that the deployed meter are working. Once that is done, then billing starts, and then that amount is paid. Roughly about, there is a lag of about two to two and a half months.
So next financial year is when we can see the entire, like, 40-45 lakh meters.
Correct. The part certainly will come into the current year as well.
The remaining INR 9,000 or INR 10,000, I mean, does it mean that from FY 2026 onwards, only this INR 1,000 every year will come through or?
No, no, no. No, no. So the first year, the one tenth, we will receive plus nine hundred.
Okay. Okay. And how would the margin shape up with this business?
Smart meters generally have a margin of around 80%-85%. In the initial years, because of the initial ramp-up, the margins may come down to around 75%, but overall, the project would have an 85% margin.
Got it. And, on your C&I business, did I hear it correctly? You said that your margins would range from INR 0.10-INR 1, something like that, right?
Correct. Depending on the nature of the contract, if it's only a service contract, then it would be a simple back-to-back contract, then it could be around 10. But if it is a complex contract, a lot of teaching to be done and position is to be taken, then obviously those margins will be in a higher range.
You mentioned some 500 crore units you are expecting by year-end with INR 100 crore EBITDA. You like 500 crore units would translate into broadly about INR 200-250 crore kind of revenue number, because I'm assuming about INR 0.50 as the-
Currently the majority of contract is only a service contract. Now, we have started getting into the contract where we do stitching, a lot of stitching, end-to-end solution and also taking a position in the contract.
So if it's a service contract, then it would be broadly INR 0.10, right? So for 500 crore units that we were able, looking to close, then it will be about INR 50 crore revenue.
There are mix of it. Few contracts are those contracts as well, where we are taking a position.
The entire revenue would be EBITDA, or is there some, like, cost involved over here?
Very, very, minuscule. So roughly, the EBITDA would be 98% plus.
... And, how much are we looking to invest? You said that we would be investing in last mile connectivity also here, in case if it's, like, a complex contract.
So I don't have that readymade number. It will depend on the contract to contract and where the consumers facilities are located, how far it is, and how complex the particular facility will be to connect, depending on that location. So if you are doing-
Profile or return metrics that we look at when we bid for these projects, so let's say investing INR 100, we get something back. So from that perspective, any sort of number?
So obviously we will look for more than 15% whenever we do CapEx.
15%. Okay. Okay, that's it from my side. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from Shreyans Daga from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi. Thank you for the opportunity. I have one question. So on the Aarey-Kudus HVDC line, can you give us any updates as to the timelines and expected CapEx remaining on that?
Expected CapEx is about 6,600-6,700. The project is progressing very well. We will be able to commission within timeline, which is August 2025.
Okay, thanks. And I have just one question on AEML. So, you mentioned, I think last September, you'll be able to liquidate about INR 15 billion of regulatory receivables. So is that going in line or you expect to, you know, continue that beyond FY 2025?
No, no, it is going on line. In fact, we are liquidating more than what we have committed.
Okay. And just a small question. So the annual CapEx guidance of AEML, can you-
[foreign laguage] Hello?
Yeah, yeah. So, there was some disturbance in between. The annual CapEx of AEML would be around INR 1,700 crore to INR 1,800 crore.
Can you, you know, give a breakdown of, on what that would go in and all that?
So it will be in a mix of transmission and distribution, and within distribution, there could be numerous number of projects, starting from your network augmentation, creating new substations, putting up smart meters, putting up storage facilities. Usually the process is that wherever we wanted to do a CapEx, we have to go to MERC with a DPR. We go to MERC, justify why we are doing it, what is the advantage of that CapEx. Once they approve, then we do that CapEx.
Okay, perfect. That's it. Thanks.
Thank you. Next question is from Angel, Reuters. Please go ahead.
Hello, everybody. Hello?
We can hear you.
Oh, okay, okay. I wanted to ask, especially on the show-cause notice again. I want to ask that. I understand there's two things, your peer review certificate, and also, I believe was in the first quarter earnings as well as this new one regarding shareholding. So, is there any other color that you can provide on these two, and especially also for the peer review certificate one, whether, like, what steps have you taken or what steps will you do together with the new show-cause notice moving forward to resolve it? And any timeline that you can give to provide for this to be resolved? What typically are the steps that you need to take to resolve the show-cause notice?
So the show-cause notice was, with respect to the peer review, which the statutory auditors, as in 2015, 2016, had to provide, which they have subsequently provided. And now there is a complete peer review available for our existing auditors. That matter, which was there regarding peer review of the show-cause notice, stands resolved.
Okay, okay. So that's resolved. And for the new one of the shareholding, so is there any rough timeline that you guide for that? To when will that be resolved, and what steps you have to take to resolve that?
That, I think Anupam mentioned, is that we are in the process of filing the due response to SEBI, and we'll come out with the necessary disclosures in due course of time.
Okay. Okay, I understand. My next question is relating to, yeah, again, your transmission growth plan, quite much, and then the question is that, what kind of funding options do you have to actually fund this next wave of growth over the next one year to medium term, so the next couple of years? How do you weigh your various options across, like, onshore, offshore, banks, dollar bonds, US PP, et cetera?
So yes, post this equity raise, we are currently fully funded. And, for our debt financing, we continue to have various options, which you, as you mentioned, it could be bank financing-
... I'm saying it could be dollar bonds and it could be domestic bonds. It can be evaluated at that point in time. Currently, because of the QIP and the projects which are currently under construction, both are fully tied up, as far as the debt fund is concerned.
Okay. So the QIP rate wouldn't change your assumption of, like, the equity mix, funding for a new project, right? Like, you will need therefore put more equity now that you have more equity.
That would be funded through a project of, I mean, project debt of around 70 to 30. That would continue as is.
Okay. Okay, understand. And last thing is on the this 10-year bond coming in August 2026, and I understand it's still quite some time away, but is there any other thoughts on how to deal with that? And internally or, like, externally, the agencies, were there any requirement that a certain timeline, just six months or one year, that you have to kind of come out a plan, for that refinancing?
The maturity is still some time away, and at the right time, we will approach the market, to refinance that debt.
Okay. And lastly, the AM, I don't see your items with the financials out yet. So can you remind me or let me know, what is the regulatory deferral account balance as of September [2024]?
So the regulatory deferred account, which was there of 1,600, is in the course of complete liquidation. Currently, we have out of the 1,600 only around 900, which is left by the end of September. And by the end of March, as per the MERC order, that amount would get fully liquidated through the tariff itself.
Understood. So about 700 cash flows were done over the last six months, so that is cash received. Additional cash flow. Okay, and what will the use of this cash be for?
That would be used under the normal business use as per the waterfall of that facility.
Thank you very much. Due to time, we'll have to take that as the last question. I would now like to hand the questions back to Mr. Kandarp Patel for closing comments.
We thank all the investors for the active participation during the call, and we look forward to any other questions that you may have. You can reach out to us or to Vijil for any other clarifications. Thanks for coming up and taking this call.
Thank you very much. On behalf of Adani Energy Solutions Limited, thank you for joining us, ladies and gentlemen. You may disconnect your lines.