Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Q4 FY 2026 earnings conference call hosted by Adani Energy Solutions Limited. From the AESL side, we have the following on the call as main speakers. Mr. Kandarp Patel, CEO, Mr. Kunjal Mehta, CFO, Mr. Prashant Soni, Head of Finance. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal the operator by pressing star then zero on your touch-tone phone. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Prashant Soni from AESL. Thank you. Over to you, Mr. Soni.
Thank you, Ryan. Thank you and very good day to everyone. A warm welcome to the Q4 FY 2026 earnings call from AESL. We hope you had an opportunity to review the earnings presentation and final results that we shared on our website. To outline the flow of today's call, we will begin with the opening remarks from our CEO, Mr. Kandarp Patel, following which we will open the floor for Q&A. The call will conclude with closing remarks from CFO, Mr. Kunjal Mehta. For those who wish to ask questions, we request you to start joining the question queue a little in advance to help us manage the Q&A efficiently. Thank you. With that, I would like to hand over to Mr. Kandarp Patel for his opening statement. Thank you. Over to you, sir.
Good morning, everyone, and warm welcome to all investor and analyst friend on this call for Q4 and FY 2026 of Adani Energy Solutions. Well, you must have received all the material in terms of our accounts and financial performance and also operational performance. I would like to highlight a few distinct points that we probably may not have emerged out very clearly from the financials. Obviously, this year, besides many other projects, we have commissioned that Mumbai HVDC project, which is not only regulatory asset-based project, RAP-based project, but it is also very important for Mumbai transmission capacity augmentation. It will also help AEML in integrating more and more renewables into our distribution company. Another significant milestone that we could achieve this year was deployment of smart meter on the ground.
While we anticipated or we projected that we will be doing about 70 lakh meters this financial year, we surpassed that target and we ended up installing about 83 lakh meters on the ground. That is probably the highest number that any operator has achieved, not only in India, but probably also on a global basis. While we continue to do all this project execution on the ground, there is a significant shift or change that is happening at AESL level. You must have noted that the CapEx of AEML, consolidated CapEx, transmission, distribution, smart metering, has increased significantly over a period of time. We have now reached close to INR 15,000 crore CapEx. We will continue to improve the CapEx and reach about INR 20 crore CapEx this year.
While we are improving CapEx, you also must have noted that there is a significant improvement that is happening on a credit rating side. Now most of our assets are AAA+ or AAA, and there is a significant improvement in credit rating while we are scaling up the CapEx. Usually, it becomes even challenging to maintain the credit rating while you are significantly stepping up a CapEx, but we have done it otherwise. We have improved on credit rating, and consequently, our interest cost is also going down. Now, even in the challenging time, volatile time, if you are in a position to improve credit rating and reduce your interest cost, that's a significant achievement from AESL side. That would mean that incremental return for shareholders. Now, similarly, with HVDC commissioning and the regulatory asset and this CapEx that we continue to do at AEML.
Now, when we took that AEML, the RAB was about INR 5,400 crore. Today, you must have seen that it has reached to INR 10,500+ crore. Similarly, in transmission as well, the RAB-based asset was about INR 10,000 crore. Now we have added INR 7,000 crore of HVDC. We will continue to make sure that proportion of regulatory asset base and competitive asset base remains healthy. That is driving our growth and cash generation. With this, we have been able to do the refinancing of our $500 million bond, and that we refinance from Apollo, who is a U.S. insurance investor. Now, that gives us confidence that even during this challenging geopolitical situation, we have been able to leverage our financial and operational strength and do the refinancing. Similarly, on smart metering, we will continue to scale up our operations.
We think that smart metering business is not limited to our contractual period, but it is a perpetual one, given the industry sector. We believe that this opportunity is going to continue even when those existing concession expires, maybe in terms of extension or new bidding opportunity. With the capabilities that we have created, we certainly are in a much better footing to take advantage of future opportunities. Similarly, on the transmission side as well, this year we have improved on the market share. We have reached to now almost 29% of the project that went into bidding. There are about INR 150,000 crore projects already identified for the bidding. Simultaneously, as I mentioned, we are scaling up our capability in deploying CapEx on the ground, and we will continue to do that.
With the improved interest cost and with the improved capability of deploying CapEx, that will give us an opportunity to capture larger amount of transmission opportunity in the market. On the operational side as well, we have been doing consistently well. This year as well, the O&M availability has been 99.7%. Similarly, on our distribution side as well, we have consistently been able to reduce our distribution losses. All in all, the distribution loss has already reached to 4.2%. In fact, we started with 8.5%, and we have reached to this level. The significant thing that is going to happen from a growth side, besides transmission and smart metering, will be C&I segment. We have started that operation. We are now close to about 5,000 MW of renewable capacity contracted. We are already having about dozens of third-party consumers aggregating about 1,400 MW capacity.
It will give us a great lever in capturing that market, which has a huge potential, including those data centers coming up in India. All in all, C&I will also become one of the major growth drivers in the next year. We will have a detailed presentation on C&I once we complete next financial year, and have this call again somewhere in May next year. We will lay out what are the kind of activity there that we have been able to do it in C&I. All in all, in all our segments that we operate, whether it is transmission, distribution, smart meters, or C&I, we see a great potential there, great opportunity. Since we are improving capability of CapEx deployment and with a discipline in capital management and CapEx deployment, we will continue to capture those opportunities.
No, I think we can now start the questions from the analysts or the investors.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use their handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We take the first question from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question is, can you help us with your expectation for CapEx in FY 2027 and FY 2028 for three businesses separately?
Yeah, sure. We will have about INR 22,000 crore of CapEx next year. Of which transmission would be about INR 15,500. Distribution about INR 2,350. Smart metering about INR 3,900. These are the numbers. We'll be around INR 21,000, between INR 21,000-INR 22,000.
This is for FY 2027, right, sir?
Correct.
Is it possible to share the FY 2028 or it's not possible as of now?
No, no, it is possible, but that number will be little approximate, but it will be around INR 23,000.
Okay.
Of that, transmission would be about INR 20,000. Distribution again will be about INR 2,000. Smart metering, given the order book, we are not assuming the additional one. Given the order book, it will be INR 1,500 and whatever the additional order that will come will get added.
Understood, sir.
Somewhere between INR 22,000- INR 25,000.
Understood, sir. My second question is, sir, is it possible to share the expectation for capitalization or commissioning in FY 2027 or FY 2028? Can you please, sir, help us understand whether you have included the Mumbai HVDC completely in FY 2026? Is that the right understanding?
Yes. Mumbai commissioned in FY 2026 already.
Okay.
In the last month. Yeah, completely.
100% fully utilized.
Yeah, 100%.
Understood.
The capitalization number in FY 2027 would be about INR 21,000-INR 22,000. In FY 2028, it could be about INR 13,000. Thereafter, the capitalization will improve especially in transmission because those HVDC projects that will start getting commissioned from FY 2029.
Understood, sir. Thank you and all the best, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Manish Ostwal from Nirmal Bang Securities Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. I have a question on the balance sheet leverage. Sir, if you look at our cash flow for the year FY 2026, we have operating cash flow almost INR 11,000 crore, and we are having CapEx of INR 14,431 crore. Effectively, our free cash flow negative INR 7,500 crore. What is your view on the balance sheet leverage, where we are comfortable? Can you guide us on that front, sir? That will be helpful for us.
That's from an operating cash flow. You would understand is that most of our assets, we generally finance it in the ratio of 70:30. Only the equity portion is funded through the internal accruals. Balance is tied up through the debt. From that position, we are fully comfortable to meet all our existing CapEx requirements in transmission, Smart meter, and even distribution.
Thank you. We move on to the next question, which is from the line of Dhruv Muchhal. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Thank you so much. Sir, can you help me? What is the capitalization for FY 2026? If you can also break it up between transmission. What is in transmission?
FY 2026 is about INR 15,000, INR 15,300. Transmission is INR 10,260. Distribution INR 1,511, and Smart metering INR 3,556.
All right. Sure. Sir, also one accounting thing is, what would a CWIP be in a normal accounting term at the end of FY 2026? Overall consolidated CWIP.
Between the SCA assets and the normal conventional assets, if you look at the financials, the current CWIP is around INR 2,053 crore, which is for the non-SCA assets, and we are currently having SCA assets of about. I'll just give you the numbers.
Because now the accounting has changed, so it's become a bit confusing.
SCA assets is currently around INR 6,200, and the CWIP is around INR 2,500.
Got it. Broadly INR 8,000 crore of CWIP. Sir, just trying to combine the math, and you're guiding for a capitalization of about INR 15,000 crore in transmission in next year, FY 2027. What we generally see is, what is CWIP at the end of the year probably gets capitalized at the end of the next year, the typical cycle in transmission. Your guidance is much higher. For example, your transmission guidance is about INR 15,000 crore next year, capitalization guidance. Assuming all the CWIP is for transmission, that's about INR 8,000 crore. I'm just trying to reconcile the math.
Yeah, there would be a CapEx which will be incurred during the current financial year as well, which will also get translated into capitalization. Just to give you a perspective, especially in transmission assets, what happen is that certain types of transformers or certain types of substations are generally procured during the fag end of the asset, and then that gets capitalized immediately. This is exactly what happened in case if you note in HVDC project as well. It is just at the last period when you procure heavy equipment, which gets capitalized during that financial year, and which does not generally form part of CWIP or your.
Through next year also, in the current year, we plan to do a transmission CapEx of about INR 15,000-INR 16,000 and INR 8,000 of this CWIP. Out of this total block, we plan to capitalize about INR 14,500-INR 15,000.
Got it. Sure. Perfect. Sir, two macro related questions is, in some of the government documents, the transmission committee meetings, what we are seeing is, they have started to talk about batteries, the higher cost of transmission, particularly it seems the HVDC lines, and they have started to compare it to batteries and all those. How should we see this? Is it the cost becoming a challenge or the integration becoming a challenge? Just trying to understand how you're seeing this.
No, obviously, that debate is going on at policy level as to how much of transmission capacity that countries should add because it also has a cost implication, especially for renewable projects. The debate is that, should we push, as a sector, the installation of more co-located BESS so that transmission costs could be optimized. See, what is happening is that that's a one leg of transmission, but whatever electricity is generated, that also has to get distributed and taken to the last mile to the end consumer. Now, in future, what we see, while the interstate transmission line will continue to get crystallized and come into bidding, but we expect to see lot more activity from a state side.
Because all those transmission corridors which are created or which are being created for taking renewable energy to load center, now those investments are required to be made at a state level to take it to last customer. We see lot of opportunity coming from state side as well. You must have seen in last year, there are few utilities or state who has already started bidding for multiple projects like Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and even Karnataka. We see lot of action coming from those state as well.
Basically, just to understand this well, a larger portion of the ISTS evacuation is done. Now it is more about optimization and the activity to a larger extent shifts towards the intrastate network.
No, I'm not saying that it is already done.
Continuing, yeah.
If we, as a country, are in a position to install BESS at a massive scale, then probably that quantum might come down to a certain extent. It is not completely done.
Yeah. Sure. Got it. Sir, last thing. On the C&I, you mentioned about 5 GW or you have tied up and the data center load demand that you can cater. Just trying to understand, it seems the state governments are looking at giving distribution licenses to these large hyperscalers. So how does it position us in that thing? Can they still come to you for that round the clock power or they do it themselves? Just trying to understand our positioning then if they get the distribution license.
Certainly, even if they become a distribution licensee, they will have to source power, and because their requirement of power will be very peculiar, that is where we come in, especially from power infra side as well as from supply side. Now we, having got capacity of solar, wind as well as BESS with us, we are in a position to offer that kind of a solution, whether it is a customer or the distribution licensee given to a customer. Essentially, it remains a customer.
Okay. This 5 GW that you have tied up is, you have freed this capacity for yourselves, and then you find your customers. For example, 1.54 GW you have already found, and the remaining you will find it now.
Correct.
Got it. Sure sir, great. Helpful to understand more on the C&I as you shared more.
Yes, yes.
Okay. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Manish Somaiya from Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead.
Good morning. A couple of questions. The first one is on smart metering. The installation rate was quite impressive in the fourth quarter. I was hoping you could help us understand how we should think about 2027. When I look at the book of business that you currently have, which is around 24.6 million, if you could just help us get a feel for when is sort of the next time you'll have an opportunity to do more tenders and when do you expect for that number to meaningfully increase?
Next opportunity, Smart meter. Manish. Next year, probably, we'll be doing minimum about 1.5 crore meters. Having done 83 lakh meters in the current year, we are confident that we'll be able to install another 1 crore meters in the current financial year. As far as next opportunity is concerned, you must have seen when we started that concessions were about 2.3 crore, but now we have reached to 2.5 crore. Essentially, there are two ways of getting additional concessions here. One is that in existing contract itself, it has swelled to 2.5 crore, 2.3 crore. The balance opportunity which remains in the market is about 9-10 crore meters. There are a few states who are awaiting their approval from central government under RDSS, and those states are Karnataka, Tamil Nadu. Tamil Nadu already has an approval, so now they have to come out with a bidding process.
Probably they will come out once the elections are over. The opportunity remains are Tamil Nadu, Karnataka whole state, Telangana whole state, Andhra Pradesh part, Gujarat part, and MP part. These are the opportunity which are still pending in the market.
Okay. That's super helpful. On the distribution side, EBITDA was down about 14%, volumes were up, losses obviously improved. Maybe I was just hoping to get some color from you as to how we should think about distribution in fiscal 2027. Some of the financial measures.
We will continue to have that similar amount of CapEx in distribution. See, distribution, what is happening is that in AEML, we continue to harden the asset. We continue to add about INR 1,500-INR 2,000 crore CapEx every year. We are also making sure that our tariff remains the same, almost at the same level that we have been able to do, and we will continue to do by improving operational efficiency. Effectively what we are doing is that all efficiency gains are transferred for investor for incremental return because we continue to add that RAB. It's a win-win for customer as well as shareholders. Shareholders returns are improving, but customer tariff are remaining same and service levels are also improving significantly. That's the reason why AEML has been rated number one distribution company in the country since last four years now.
Just lastly on transmission, I think you talked about the Mumbai HVDC coming online fully. Could you just help us quantify the EBITDA run rate contribution from some of the projects that have come on in FY 2026 into FY 2027? Just a related question to that, the tendering opportunity that you mentioned of INR 1.5 billion, how should we think about the win rate as we model out?
Sorry, Manish, how should we think about?
In terms of the win rate for the tendering opportunities that you have.
Currently.
Are we assuming a certain percentage?
Manish, currently we were about 20%-25%. We have improved this year to close to 30%. We will continue to maintain that market share between 25%-30%. While we can also increase market share, but as I mentioned, we will make sure that we remain disciplined, both in terms of capital management as well as CapEx deployment. That is the area where we don't want to compromise. We will limit ourselves to 25%-30%, and that will also be converted into amount. It will be INR 40,000-INR 50,000 crore of new opportunity for us in the transmission itself.
Manish, to the first question. This year, the capitalization which has happened for transmission, on fully run rate basis, we will be able to add another INR 1,600 crore of EBITDA, around INR 1,600 crore, by the commissioning of the projects which has been commissioned in this financial year. I'm talking about the INR 1,600 crore is a revenue number.
Okay. Just maybe, Kunjal, last question, in terms of leverage with CapEx going higher, are we still comfortable with the 4x-4.5x , or should we expect that to inch little bit higher?
No, we'll continue to maintain that leverage in the ratio of around 4.5x to 4.7x.
Okay. Great. Thank you so much, and good luck in 2027.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning. Thanks for the opportunity once again. My question is on the Mumbai HVDC, which you commissioned. How do you expect to book revenues in the FY 2027? Will it be at lower project cost? In the sense, it will be booked at provisional tariff, or it will be booked at the full project cost?
As you know, this is a RAB-based project, and once the tariff is approved by the regulator, you are entitled to start billing to the regulator. Currently, the number is INR 1,300 crore, which is the full year tariff from the Mumbai HVDC project, which we will start accruing from next financial.
Understood, sir. My second question is, of course, it was regarding HVDC Pole Two of Mumbai. We understand that, of course, the state transmission committees had approved it, right, and recommended it to the empowered committee of state. Have you heard anything on that, and is it fair to expect that HVDC Pole Two will start working from this fiscal?
As far as HVDC Pole Two is concerned, the evaluation at MERC and STU level is going on. We feel that Mumbai will certainly require additional transmission capacity. We can't commit currently because that's still under the evaluation at MERC and STU level.
Understood. My second question is, sir, can you help us with the progress on the two HVDC projects which we are working on right now in terms of percentage completion? And could you also address the ROW challenges if you are facing any?
As far as Fatehpur-Bhadla HVDC is concerned, the construction has already begun, both at a substation and a line level. We haven't faced any significant ROW challenge as far as that project is concerned. As far as Khavda-Olpad is concerned, we have finalized all the contracts, but the construction has yet not started. It will start. Khavda land is now already under the possession. Land at Olpad, we expect to get possession from Power Grid in maybe a month's time. Once we have that, we will start construction at both the places. The preparatory work at Khavda has already started because that land is already in possession. Then we have already submitted those proposals for environment and forest clearances, because that will also become a significant part. We have already started applying for ROW permission. Those compensation orders from state government.
Currently it's progressing as per plan. You will see lot of action on ground on both the project in the current year.
Sir, is it possible to share the percentage completion for Fatehpur-Bhadla? How much percentage you completed till date?
I don't have that number ready, mate, but we will send you.
No, sir. Is it fair to understand that most of the CapEx will happen in FY 2027 or FY 2028 for Fatehpur-Bhadla?
Yeah. The CapEx in Fatehpur-Bhadla will start, significant CapEx will start from current year.
Understood, sir. My last question is it possible to share the margin profile for the trading business, especially on the 1.5 GW? And when do you expect the 1.5 GW to start contributing to the top line?
The 1.5 GW that we have already tied up, the margins are in excess of INR 0.50 per unit. Rest, we are still working. Once we tie up that capacity, either on a medium-term or a long-term contract, then those number will get crystallized. Currently, we are operating on a merchant market, and that depends on the market condition, which is varying on a day-to-day basis.
Is it right to say that the margin profile currently is lower and it will improve once we start selling into the merchant market? Sorry, selling into the long-term C&I market.
I would not say it is lower, but you will get more certainty once you have a contract.
Understood, sir. Thank you, sir. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Shirom Kapoor from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Just had a small bookkeeping question. Your operational EBITDA for your Smart meter business. Nine months FY 2026 in the presentation showed about INR 466 crore, and for FY 2026 full year, it's showing us INR 452 crore, though for the fourth quarter, it's showing about INR 180 crore. Has there been some kind of restatement in your operational EBITDA? And if you could quantify that for the past three quarters, like what would have changed in those numbers?
No. Just that the operating EBITDA is purely a function of the number of meters that gets installed. From that perspective, every quarter that number will keep on increasing. There is no restatement as such. It's just that we show both the numbers in our financials, the Ind AS numbers as well as the non-Ind AS numbers.
No, right. I'm referring to the non-Ind AS numbers itself. Your operational EBITDA in the nine months of FY 2026 totally was INR 466 crore, but your total full year FY 2026 is INR 452 crore. The fourth quarter wasn't a loss, right? Fourth quarter itself was INR 180 crore of operational EBITDA. That's what I'm understanding. This number implies only about INR 270 crore in nine-month FY 2026 versus INR 470 crore that you mentioned in your nine-month presentation. That's the kind of discrepancy I'm asking about, if you could clarify that.
No. My operating EBITDA for the full year comes to around INR 593 crore for smart meter business. For the Q4 it is INR 214 crore.
I'm referring to non-Ind AS numbers. That's where I'm seeing the discrepancy.
I'll have to check that as to from where you are getting nine-month number.
It's in your presentation, the nine months presentation, slide 10.
We can take it offline.
That's okay. My next question is on this INR 1.5 trillion tender pipeline. Is this entirely an opportunity in the next 12 months? Or if you could give what the 12-month pipeline number would be?
12 months would be about INR 80,000-INR 100,000 crore, depending on how bidding process proceeds. We expect that bids about INR 80,000-INR 100,000 crore will get finalized.
Got it. Could you give what this 12-month pipeline would have been at the same time last year? Has it increased?
It has almost remained same.
Remained the same. Okay.
Yeah.
Just last clarification on the SCA assets that you mentioned, this INR 6,200 crore of SCA assets, that would be accounting-wise part of your gross block number, right? In the INR 2,500 crore you mentioned would be part of CWIP. This is beyond what is your reported number. Is that understanding correct?
No, SCA gets reported separately as under non-financial asset.
Right. The number you mentioned, INR 6,200 crore, that would be already the operational asset and INR 2,500 crore is yet to be operationalized, right? Is that understanding correct? These are both part of your other financial assets, but this would be the breakup for the SCA assets on the Smart meter side.
One is contracted assets and one is SCA assets. Once the asset gets commissioned, that forms part of your contracted assets. Once it is under construction, it forms part of your SCA assets. Both are part of non-financial assets.
Sure. Could you give that number, in your other financial assets right now, how much is already the contracted asset and how much is under construction?
INR 6,200 and INR 7,000.
INR 6,200 and INR 7,000.
Correct.
Okay, got it. Thank you so much, sir. Appreciate the clarifications.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Mahesh Patil from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Sir, hi. Thanks for the opportunity. First question is on the intrastate opportunity. What do you think, annually, what's the pipeline and what kind of bidding number that we are looking at?
Intrastate would be around INR 30,000 crore-INR 40,000 crore, collectively all states together, annually.
Okay.
Hello.
My second question is on the Mumbai HVDC project. We mentioned that we commissioned it fully in FY 2026. Is it possible to share the date? Was it a single date or the different elements were commissioned at different point of time?
It was a single date. We commissioned from 15th March.
Okay. The cost remains INR 7,000 crore, right, for tariff and everything. No additional cost or tariff is being claimed here.
INR 7,000 is the cost of completing that project.
Okay, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Arun Jayaram from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi there. I have a question regarding the Smart meters installed. How much is the number for the last year, Smart meters?
80 lakh.
82 lakh.
No, no. Last year we installed 82.29 lakh Smart meters in 2026.
Okay. Sir, your media release, page three, it says we have deployed 1 crore Smart meters.
No, it's all aggregate till today. Yeah. Last year when we began, there was about 31 lakh Smart meters which was installed. In the current year, we installed about 82.20 lakh Smart meters. The aggregate is that number.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Bharat Shah from BCS Capital Ideas Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, Kandarp , and hi, Kunjal. One broad question. Given the fact that the opportunity on transmission now clearly seems to have widened, and it is also reflected in our CapEx program. Our distribution assets are doing a steady progress and helped by addition of new RAB assets. Our Smart meter is a high growth opportunity, at least for some length of time. Maybe at some stage, C&I will kick in. In that backdrop, if I look at, and I'm focusing on operating profits, that is profits before adding any other income. Our profits for the four-year period have remained range bound between INR 4,000 crore-INR 4,500 crore each year between financial year 2019-2020 up to 2022-2023. In that four-year period, it has been in a range of INR 4,000 crore-INR 4,500 crore.
Clearly we made a break in the subsequent years, approaching closer to INR 6,000, then in FY 2025, INR 7,000, and now, FY 2026, about INR 8,000. While definitely there is a progress made in last three years, but at what pace, I think more correctly reflective of opportunity and our own preparedness and strength in the area where we see far more accelerated growth in our operating profits. From INR 8,000 crore for the last year operating profit, at what stage do we see doubling of that and in what time period we think it will triple?
Thank you, Bharat, for this question. This year, well, last year, the consolidated number was INR 8,726. See, our business other than C&I is all CapEx business. The moment we capitalize, we add that profitability. As we discuss the CapEx and capitalization plan for the coming year, that will directly translate to addition of EBITDA. Next year, given the capitalization plan, we expect that number could be around INR 11,500.
Bharat, as you know, generally as management, we would not give guidance on the EBITDA numbers. As we mentioned is that there's a significant CapEx capitalization, which is going to happen during the next two years itself. If you consider that during this financial year, we have not added any revenue numbers from the Mumbai HVDC year, which is a significant increase when the full year numbers will kick in in FY 2026. From that perspective, and if you consider the locked-in portfolio by the end of four years, when all these projects would get fully commissioned, we're at least looking three times the size of the current EBITDA trajectory that we have.
Three times? Sorry, three times in what time frame?
Once all the existing transmission projects gets completed in the next 36-40 months.
I see. In three to four years' time, with operating profit of about INR 8,000 crore and EBITDA of a little less than INR 9,000 crore last year, we are seeing it should triple in three to four years time.
Yeah. Once all these projects, because all these projects have the locked-in tariff, which has been indicated, and all these projects on a run rate basis, will start then tackling all these numbers that we just mentioned.
That takes into account some amount of additional Smart meter contracts that you may get or based on the current contracts only that you are estimating.
Based on the current Smart meter contracts of 2.46 crore meters.
All right. Which means essentially that what is about INR 8,000 operating profit and less than INR 9,000 to INR 8,700-odd EBITDA should be in the corridor of INR 25,000-INR 27,000 in three to four years time.
I would not, I mean, I'm just saying is that all the tariff number would get taken. I would not want to put a number today on the EBITDA margins because we generally do not give a guidance on the EBITDAs to the investors. What I'm saying is that all the transmission projects would get completed, and that itself would translate to 2x-3x of the numbers of the current numbers.
Okay. Kunjal, I appreciate your being very coy about the guidance and because these are predictable assets, predictable timelines of execution, and we know what are the rate of returns that we have to earn on that. There is a fair degree of settled clarity as to what the numbers should be at.
This is exactly what I think is that, sir, that 72,000 of the under construction pipeline would translate to an additional tariff of INR 10,000-odd crore once this entire project gets completed. You know that the distribution business will have currently INR 2,500 crore EBITDA, which will translate to close to 3,000, 3,200 numbers. Smart meter business will also start generating INR 2,400-INR 3,000-odd crore of EBITDA trajectory once the entire Smart meter project, I mean, the numbers, I mean, that's the guidance which we have been giving to everybody and we'll continue to give that.
Okay. No, I appreciate. I just wanted to basically hear and understand that finally, a range bound kind of a corridor in which we were there for a length of time. Clearly, last three years we've been into progress, but tail of a progress is what I was looking forward to, and I believe now this is the phase which is commencing for that tail of a growth, right?
Correct.
Okay. Is the picture more shaded thereafter, after these three to four-year corridor is over? Or given the longevity of the transmission opportunity and other things which will play out, like you talked about C&I again, hopefully distribution game may open up. Would we say that the pace of our expansion, Kandarp , would continue thereafter as well?
Obviously, Bharat brother, we would like to continue that way, and you are spot on. Currently, it is the transmission which is contributing to growth. It could be C&I after some time. It could be a distribution after some time. The other one that we are incubating is district cooling, probably that will also start picking up in four, five years' time. We'll continue to have that aspiration of growing, but with a financial discipline and execution discipline as well.
Correct. One last thing, Kandarp . For district cooling opportunity, I believe we are doing something in Gandhinagar. Overall, where large new clusters are coming about of development across the country, are we not looking at tying up opportunity at the early stage and figuring out a solution while those large mega clusters are being developed anywhere in the country?
No, I think, Bharat brother, that is where we are working very actively. In fact, we have just got a concession. I mentioned in last call as well. We got a concession from one of the cluster development happening in Chennai. We are also talking to various state government and wherever. We see a great opportunity there. It may not be as sizable today, but going forward, Bharat brother, we think that it is going to be a big one.
Okay, fantastic. Hearty congratulations. I think probably the most exciting phase of this opportunity, probably as I see it, has begun.
Perfect. Thank you, Bharat .
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one. We take the next question from the line of Nirmal from Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my questions. I have two small questions on the transmission bottlenecks. Just wanted to understand to what extent do you see the revised compensation scheme, especially after the latest revision, positively impact in resolving the ROW issues this financial year? Is it just the compensation that is impacting ROW issues or there are other issues as well?
ROW, there are two kind of ROW. One is where you require a permission, so essentially it is like a forest clearance or if you are encountering any wildlife sanctuary, then those clearances. There is a set process around it, and we have also completely structured that particular process in a way that we now know very clearly as to when are we going to get, and our team is fully aligned to the process or the requirement of the process for getting those approval. The second part is ROW from the general public, where there is a ownership of the land from farmers or individual, and there, those government policies come into play. Many a time we see that despite having a collector order for compensation as per the government policy, few of the individuals or group of the individuals will still create a problem.
Even now all the governments, state governments as well as central government, is very serious about this particular problem, and they are also trying to systematically sort this out. We have also seen now, police protection being utilized very frequently for getting ROW. These challenges are there on the ground, but we also see that timely action from various government authorities as well to sort those issues out.
Okay. Do you see the revised compensation impacting positively this financial year?
Revised compensation, if it is revised by government and we have to pay that additional compensation, we are neutral to it because that gets covered into change in law. I don't see it is getting revised significantly any time soon.
No, sir. I meant the new amendments that are there. Now you need to have a committee, the market review committee is there. Whether do you think these new amendments will help in resolving these issues? That's what I'm trying to understand, especially this financial year.
No, it is already there. It is not new one. The last two years when Government of India notified that policy, and when all states started notifying their respective policy, they had this provision. In fact, they are called DVC committee. They assess what is the market rate prevailing in that particular area and decides a compensation based on that. That also gives a flexibility. Sometimes it happens that in a particular area, your ready reckoner or a government rate is low, but market price is high. There, those committees intervention becomes very, very useful. It certainly helps us.
Okay, sir. Thank you for the response.
Thank you.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Vishal Biraia from Bandhan AMC. Please go ahead.
Hi. Any equipment that is being sourced from China or you plan to source from China, which is under short supply in India?
Vishal, we can't source equipment from China if it is-
Not on behalf of your EPC suppliers and equipment contractors on behalf of Adani Transmission.
No. As per conditions of the bid, we can't use any equipment manufactured in China if it is through TBCB. We don't envisage any such import from China for our TBCB projects.
Perfect. Thank you, sir. That was very helpful. One question for Kunjal .
Let me add one thing on a supply side.
Yeah.
The kind of challenges that we are facing as a sector in the country is easing out. In fact, lot of new capacity is being added as far as GIS, transformers, reactors are concerned. All those OEM manufacturers has also started manufacturing quite a good amount of component as in HVDC as well. GEs and Hitachis of the world has invested in India in their manufacturing capacity. We see the supply related issues getting eased out very soon. In fact, it has eased out to a great extent. We had a very different distinct advantage. Even in difficult period, we were not really facing that challenge because usually we buy through strategic procurement, and we have that kind of relationship, and we order those equipment well in advance so that we don't face those challenges of equipment getting delivery delay.
In fact, no project of AESL got delayed because of delay in the equipment delivery.
That is happening to you, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Bharat Shah from BCS Capital Ideas Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Just one more thing, Kunjal. The borrowing level, I think for the last year in aggregate was, I think about less than INR 50,000 crore. Four years down the line, what kind of borrowing level do you envision?
Sir, I don't have an absolute number about four years borrowing level, but we have been always giving a guidance that our net leverage would be in the range of 4.5x-4.7x . We will continue to maintain that financial discipline, we will continue to maintain to ensure that we always get the highest ratings for all our transmission projects. From that perspective, we will ensure that our leverage is always in check to ensure that we have the highest ratings overall.
Kunjal, if this is going to be high growth phase for our profit shares projects will kick in. Therefore, if we assume the same 4.5x-4.7x , then it will appear that our borrowings also would go to INR 125,000-INR 150,000 crore. Which I think based on the yearly cash flows and other things, I doubt, or given the CapEx requirement that our borrowing level will be hitting that kind of number.
Sir, I'll walk you through separately about our debt and borrowings programs for the next four, five years, especially at the end of four years.
Bharat , two thing is certain that we are not reaching that number, 4.5 to 4.6. Second thing is also certain that we have locked in CapEx of INR 77,000 crore.
In the four-year period?
Yes, yes.
Yeah. That I understand. Only Kunjal Bhai, given that kind of a pace of about INR 20,000 a year of CapEx, I would assume that borrowing probably will not rise at the same level, but I'll separately work on that with Kunjal.
Perfect. Thank you, sir.
Yeah. Thanks.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take that as the last question, and we conclude the question and answer session. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Kunjal Mehta for his closing comments.
No, I would just like to thank each one of you who participated in the call. In case we have not been able to answer or verify to anyone, happy to take any of your queries separately. Thank you all.
Thank you. On behalf of Adani Energy Solutions, that concludes this conference call. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your line.