Ladies and gentlemen good day and welcome to Adani Green Energy first half FY 2024 earnings conference call, hosted by Investec Capital Services. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand over the conference to Mr. Manoj... I'm sorry, Mr. Anuj Upadhyay from Investec Capital Services. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you Enzo. On behalf of Investec Capital Services India Limited, I would like to welcome you all for the first half FY 2024 post-earnings conference call for Adani Green Energy. We have with us the management team of the Adani Green, who will share the key highlights of the results, followed by Q&A. I would now like to hand over the call to Mr. Viral Raval, Head Investor Relations, Adani Green, to take it forward from here. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Anuj. Good afternoon, friends. Thank you again for joining us today to discuss Adani Green Energy's H1 FY 2024 results and updates. I hope you would have had the time to go through the earnings presentation. Just to introduce the management team here along with me, so we have Mr. Amit Singh, the CEO of Adani Green. We have Mr. Phuntsok Wangyal, the CFO, Mr. Raj Kumar Jain, the Head of Business Development, and also along with us, we have Mr. Anupam Misra, the Head of Corporate Finance at the Adani Group. So in terms of the flow of the call, I'll first hand over to Mr. Amit Singh for brief opening remarks, covering broadly the business strategy and operational performance. Then, Phuntsok will give remarks on financial performance and an update on the capital management program.
Without wasting any further time, over to you, Amit, for your brief remarks.
Thank you, Viral. Good afternoon, friends. Good to be here today. As you know, renewables remains a cornerstone of global energy transition, and earlier this year, India, you know, has really accelerated tendering with 50 GW per year and driving in that direction towards a goal of 500 GW by 2030. We believe a coordinated policy action in this direction, along with a wider industry effort, is much needed to deliver on that ambition. Here in AGEL, in line with India's decarbonization goal, we remain very committed to deliver in excess of 45 GW by 2030. Adani Green continues to have the largest operating renewable portfolio with 8.4 GW in capacity. We continue to ramp up our execution capabilities as we prepare for the next phase of growth.
AGL is extensively working on the next milestone of developing the largest RE cluster in the world at Khavda in Gujarat, which we'll share further updates on our progress there. As we drive our next wave of growth, our focus will remain on these 5 key pillars. 1, development of a very affordable renewable energy, along with storage solutions to enable better integration with the grid. 2, capitalizing on project execution expertise at an increasing scale, backed by advanced resource planning and fully integrated project management and assurance. 3, development of human capital and expanding local content and supply chain, because we need to make our supply chains resilient and cost-effective. 4, accelerating the digitalization and automation to both drive efficiency but also improve our overall cost of doing work.
And lastly, making sure that we optimize our finance cost while managing the duration, duration risk of these projects with a very diversified global finance pool. Now, reflecting on our operational performance in H1 of FY 2024, as you would have seen, the sale of energy has increased by 78% year-on-year to 11,760 million units, as a result of strong capacity addition and improved CUF across solar, wind, and hybrid portfolios. The solar portfolio CUF has improved by 90 basis points year-on-year at 25.2% in H1 FY 2024, with improved plant availability and improved solar radiation. This is largely contributed by a very high digital and analytics on the O&M side, and also making sure that we are ahead of the curve in solving some of the problems.
The wind portfolio CUF has improved by 360 basis points year-on-year to 40.2% in H1, with consistent wind speed and significant improvement in grid availability compared to last year. The solar and hybrid portfolio CUF has improved by 880 basis points year-on-year to 45.4% in H1 of FY 2024, backed by technologically advanced solar modules, horizontal single-axis trackers and wind turbine generators, as well as consistent high plant and grid availability. Overall, a remarkable operational performance for which I would like to thank my whole team and organization to deliver this. Let me now hand over to Phuntsok to provide us updates on financial performance.
Thank you, Amit. Coming to the financial performance for H1 FY 2024- ... I'm delighted to share that, in line with improvement of operational performance, we have continued to deliver strong and consistent performance across all metrics, with very comfortable and leverage level. And just to share a very quick performance update. Our revenue from power supply has increased by 66% year-on-year to INR 4,029 crore, with corresponding total income standing at INR 4,979 crore. As far as EBITDA from power supply is concerned, it has also increased correspondingly by 58% to INR 3,775 crore, with an industry-leading EBITDA margin of 92.2%. Just as a point of like a reference, last half year, EBITDA margin was 97.1 , 91.7%. From 91.7%, it has increased to 92.7%.
Tax for the corresponding half year is INR 694 crore, whereas cash profit has increased by 63% to INR 2,082 crore. Now, on the top of it, if you look it from a leverage level perspective, now, run rate EBITDA stands at strong INR 7,645 crore, with net debt to run rate EBITDA at 4.99 as on September 2023, and this compares to 5.9 last year. If you recollect, when we raised the Holdco bond, the covenant, which was agreed, was 7.5. So from agreed covenant of 7.5 to 5.9 to 4.99 as on September end.
As Amit briefly, when we talked about, we remain continuously focused on optimization of, financing sources, financing costs, with the overarching objective being that our duration risk, our interest rate risk, as well as our currency, currency risk would be fully mitigated. From that perspective, we have a very diversified finance pool, and we continue to work with domestic and international banks. Now, this is getting reflected, from the fact that for capacity addition, plan for this financial year of 2.8 to 3 GW. As we speak, actually, we have, secured funding for entire financing, part of which money for the drawdown is already made, and for part, actually, documentation is currently underway. This reflects the continued support and confidence which all of our stakeholder continues to bestow on Adani Green per se.
From a credit metrics perspective, all of our rating continues to remain affirmed. We have met all debt covenants, as well as 96% of our credit facilities remain in A to AAA bucket. Just briefly touching about, as you all know, recently, our board has approved expanding our relationship with Total, whereby we will be partnering with Total for a joint venture of 1,050 MW, which for the first time, will also include under development pipeline. That is 300 MW of operational portfolio and 1,050 MW of under construction and near construction as of this deal is on track. And in due course, actually, we will be approaching, once the entire due diligence has been completed, in line with regulatory requirement, we will be approaching the shareholder for approval.
Now, this deal not only reaffirms our relationship with Total, but also expands the ambit of the relationship from a pure play operational portfolio to being a minority investor, a substantial minority investor at the risk level, to a portfolio where there will be an element of construction at risk per se. From an ESG, which remains a very important cornerstone for our operation, while delivering excellent performance, we have also made commendable progress on our ESG commitment. Amit was talking about our capacity addition, and as we have spoken in the past, a larger part of our capacity addition will come in Khavda, where, as we stand, we have deployed a workforce of more than 5,000 people.
Where we have tried to ensure that we extensively hire local talent and also upskill them, because that's a remote part actually, and it is also imperative that upskilling also builds up your community engagement per se. As we go forward, we are electing to use robotic cleaning to significantly reduce our water usage to almost zero across all of our plants. Now, this is getting reflected in terms of the various affirmation which we have received, and we are pleased to inform that recently MSCI latest ESG rating update has put AGEL corporate governance score has been upgraded to 7.4. This is the highest scoring range respective to global peer. So overall, operationally, financially, H1 and Q2 has been a fairly satisfactory performance per se.
With this, I would like to end my comments and request to open the line for Q&A from various participants. Thank you.
Thank you so much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Puneet from HSBC Bank. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you so much, and congrats on good numbers. My first question is with respect to the refinancing. I guess, a large chunk is due in FY 2025, and this was largely dollar-denominated debt. What are the plans for that, and what kind of cost of debt are you expecting for that refinance?
Yeah, sure, Puneet. I think, as you know, in FY 25, actually, we have two refinance which is coming into play. One is our $750 million holdco bond-
Right.
the second one is $500 million RG1 bond, actually. As far as Portco bond maturing in September 2024 is concerned, you would have noticed the public release, which is being done towards the end of quarter one. At the group level, actually, where it has been effectively stated that, as far as at the group level is concerned, a liquidity pool has been created of nearly $1.3 billion actually, to take care of near term. That is 12 to 18 months term liability, which is coming, which is effectively, if you really look at it across Adani Group, that includes Holdco bond per se.
Okay.
Now, on the top of it, we can now entire thought process as far as OpCo bond is concerned will be able to get repaid as and when the maturity comes in. That is from an OpCo bond maturity perspective. Now, RG-One bonds, we are on track actually, as we have communicated in the last month earnings call. This will be only refinanced through USD PP market. That is our preferred approach, actually. And right now, the discussion is currently at a very advanced stage to conclude the RG-One refi.
What kind of cost of borrowing should one be expecting for these?
Yeah. So as far as Holdco bond is concerned, as I said, it will be repaid actually. So we are not, so then, cost of borrowing etc , it doesn't come into play actually. Now, from, from AGEL perspective, I think we need to look it from 3 elements. Because, and it's pretty clear that, okay, the rates per se have gone up actually in between-
Yeah.
As far as benchmark rates are concerned. But what is also imperative to note is during the same period, actually, swap rates are moderated very extensively. Second thing, which we have also observed, which I guess, Puneet, you will also be aware, which you will also be fairly familiar with, is spread levels, actually. Credit spread levels for, for a long-tenor contracted, projects actually, which is what our RG-One multi portfolio is.
Mm-hmm.
The credit spreads are coming down. So if you really look at it, we don't expect any material increase in effective cost of refi, as far as these instruments are concerned, compared to the cost of borrowing, which we have at our AGEL Holdco level, which is near to 9.6%.
Okay. So 9.6%, all in, is what you're expecting, including the hedging cost, etc ?
Yes.
Understood. That's—
Just to add to that, I think if you look at-
Yeah.
AGEL's current debt cost, it will definitely be cheaper than the all-in cost at which the AGEL current debt is there. So there will be a cost saving overall.
Yeah, and, Puneet, actually, I think we have briefly going to touch this during our last call. As, as you would have noticed that, okay, even at our portfolio level, actually-
Mm-hmm
There are projects which are being funded through long-term amortizing instruments. But as a part of our cost optimization strategy, actually, we have been doing regular refi. So there are non-sovereign projects which we have refined actually, where interest rates have been sub-ten. Now, those are completely non-sovereign, whereas RG-One, a substantial part of the portfolio is sovereign. So that will also get reflected in the cost of refi for RG-One instrument.
Understood. And second, in your new portfolio, what is the mix of C&I in the entire portfolio as well as the operational assets?
I'll invite Raj to comment on it.
Sure. So I think, as has been mentioned here, so out of the 20.4 gig, we have close to 3% as the non-contracted portfolio. When I say non-contracted, it is basically merchant.
Okay.
Not on the C&I. We have active discussions on the C&I bit as well, and that will get reflected as we conclude in the near term. So that's broadly the mix. So, essentially today, even today, 97% of my portfolio is contracted for 25 years with great quality, which you can see, that is more than 90% sovereign rated equivalent counterparties.
Understood. And on the manufacturing-linked tenders, is there any progress, any timeline which has been given now? And there were still some unsigned tenders. Have they got signed?
So, we are now getting into the execution phase of these manufacturing link contracts. As we progress, by end of the year, you would find some of these capacities commissioned after the guidance which we have given of 2.8 GW. A large chunk of that is relating to these projects. Second, even in the next year, we will be commissioning a large chunk of these projects. With respect to the unsigned capacities, we are in very, very advanced discussions and expect that within this quarter, current quarter, the balance capacity should be signed up as well.
Perfect. Okay, that's amazing. And lastly, if you don't mind, can you give us some guidance on the commissioning plan for FY 2025 and 2026, and then balance for 2024 also?
Yeah, I think, you know, today we are projecting 2.83 gigawatt as part of our financial year. And, our bandwidth, we need to scale up our bandwidth and our capacity to grow that, you know, north of 5. Now, based on the business plan and the timelines and mix of projects and customers, we are targeting in that neighborhood. More color we will provide later part of this year. But one thing is clear, that we need to ramp up our capacity of execution, which we are at the moment, quite significantly. And also we need to make sure that the supply chain also kind of grows with us. So we are kind of working on that right now.
That's great. That's all from my side. I'll come back in the... Thank you so much, and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Before we take the next question, a reminder to all participants that you may press star and one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Nikhil from Alliance Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity. My first question is on the investment from TotalEnergies. It looks like a very good sum, given the quantum of capacity it's tied up to. What I want to understand is the investment all equity, or is it a mixture of equity and debt or equity ventures like it was last time?
I can, I can take that question. I can take that question. This is a full equity investment in the nature of equity, 100%. So what they've done is, they've valued the portfolio of 1,050 MW. Out of this 1,050 MW, 300 MW is operational, so the entire cash flows of this portfolio have been taken. For the under construction and under development projects, the CapEx cost that will be incurred is taken as a negative in the free cash flow to equity in determining the value. So it's a pre-money value for those two assets. And that, for that asset portfolio, the value has been determined at $300 million. This is a pure equity transaction.
The way this has been captured is, if you look at the entire Adani portfolio, Adani Green portfolio, it is basically Adani Green has been taken as a 30 to 40 GW company. And from that standpoint, with a mix of similar mix of operating under construction, under development, and you typically proportionate it to 1,000 MW, you get to this number. So, that's the way we have the transaction is worked out.
Understood. That's very helpful. The second question I had was regarding the quarterly results. So wanted to understand, what part of the revenue is a one-time income? I could see one item related to a land purchase of, I think, about INR 120 crore. If you could just throw some color on that, what portion of that is one time, the revenues?
Yeah. So if you see, under the revenue from power supply actually, revenue from power supply, one time, there is nothing one time, actually. But what impact monetarily H1 has is, if you recollect our Tamil Nadu projects actually, Kamuthi, where, towards the end of the last financial year, we managed to get our tariff increase across the board. So to that extent, actually, that is getting impacted. Otherwise, with the revenue from power supply, there is no one-time maybe impact per se.
Understood. What about other income? Because that number had a big jump this quarter as well.
Yeah. So other income, actually other income, if you see other income has got LPS element. Now, LPS is something, which is one time actually. This includes, this includes, 2 type of LPS actually. 1 is, which we have received, for, our Tamil Nadu project. You know, there was a regulatory dispute in terms of whether LPS is getting capped at 19% or above. So that above 19%, LPS income is there, around INR 54 crore actually, so that we have already realized it. Okay. Then there is another element, which is LPS for our past due actually. Now, that is approximately 180 CR, out of which, approximately INR 60 crore, we have, already received it. So that is, that is basically the one-time income.
Otherwise, other income includes, Monica, large amount of interest income and all, which are very steady in nature and which are likely to go up.
Just further adding, even the LPS, if you look at that, if the LPS is not there, it means I will have lesser interest outflow because the money is coming-
Mm.
in time. So from that perspective, while the current LPS, which you see, is still accumulation for past period, but per se, that either the LPS would be there or the interest outflow will be lesser. So it will nullify each other in a steady state basis.
Got it. Understood. One last question, if I may ask. It's been on the plan for the year. I think if I heard correctly, it's almost 2.8 GW of additional capacity this year. But given that we have done hardly 200 MW in the first half, after a very strong last year in terms of addition, and even if you look at the capital work in progress, it's nowhere close to the number we had at September 2022, for example. So, A, what was the reason for the slowdown in the last six months? And, B, how do we get confidence on being able to execute so much in just six months for the full year guidance?
Yeah, I think, there is a bit of a cycle of these projects. And, like I said earlier, we are undertaking this majority of this work in Gujarat, in Khavda, where we had to spend a lot of time and effort in putting the, you know, baseline infrastructure and operating environment for our people to work, which we successfully completed, earlier part of this year. And now the work is in full flow. As I announced earlier in the remarks, we have 5,000+ people working there, and we are seeing very rapid progress. So, stay tuned. I think, we will share with you an update on our commissioning as we go. But, we're very confident of our team's ability to deliver on those plans.
And Nikhil actually, if you recollect, okay, the guidance which we have given for capacity to be added within this year, we have always will be indicated that this will be towards the second half of this financial year. And in terms of your capital work in progress, where the solar construction starts is, you start with all the structural elements, tracker, etc , and all. Then module, which is the largest cost element, come towards the last part of your implementation philosophy. So modules have now started coming in post September, actually, and that is precisely the reason you would have, you would see that, okay, capital work in progress, you may get a sense that capital work in progress is slightly lesser than commensurate with the capacity augmentation, which you, which we are talking about.
Hopefully, it clarifies this one.
I really appreciate the answer. Thank you. That's very helpful. That's all I have.
Thank you so much. A reminder to all the participants, you may press Star and One to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Apurva Bahadur from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. So can you please share the quantum of installed power sold during the quarter, and what was the same number, same quarter last year?
Yes. I think informed power for this one, okay, half year is nearly going to be INR 77 crore, actually. Informed power, we were not anyway expecting much revenue as far as this half year is concerned. Last year was going to be towards nearly, I think for this half year would have been approximately between INR 800 crore-INR 900 crore. Exact number is not readily available to me.
Okay. Sir, any update on your plans for pump storage?
Yeah, on the pump storage, we have quite a few projects in the queue. As you probably are aware, this requires very concerted effort to do a proper DFE study, social study, forest approvals and so on. So we are undertaking a lot of that work for several of our projects in the higher teams. At the same time, we are nearing completion of one of the projects where we will be taking a FID. And once we have an FC, we will share with you an update. I feel very confident that we will have that update for you, you know, before end of this financial year, for sure.
But that, that is absolutely the way to bring RTC power to the country, and that will be the most economical way to do that. And we firmly believe that is the way to go for AGL and country, and that is one of the areas which we are developing quite rapidly as well.
From FID, how long do you think does the project take?
Yeah.
It should take anywhere between 27-13 months after that. That's the general cycle. And the project has the best nature that it can be turned around in that period. So I think we will come back with more details as we come out with more detailed disclosures on it. So I think we are there in terms of doing the FID very soon on that.
Sure. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Puneet from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity again. Just an observation, and I would request your thoughts there. Like you talked about, you know, bulk of commissioning happening in second half, a lot of other players are also aiming for the same. And where are you buying these modules from to start with?
Yeah, sure. So I think we have optimized the procurement based on the way the contracts are set up. So there are procurements happening from Southeast Asian countries as well as from China depending upon the contract. And as Amit has mentioned, some of those modules have already started kicking in at the site. So that's how it is currently planned.
Yes.
So that-
Yes.
Specific, actually, I think for this financial year, I think we have indicated in last quarter itself, will be bulk of it will be from China only. Correct. So, in that context, I want to understand how would the risk play out if you were to import these modules, but the commissioning gets slipped by, say, 5 odd months, 5 odd days, and moves to April? Would you still be allowed to commission, or what are the risks that we run into in case COD is delayed, by, you know, a few days?
Let me answer that. Our current plans, which we are doing, are way prior to their contracted SCOD dates. We do not have any risk, even if my plan gets delayed by a couple of months.
... with respect to any of these nature. So I'm, these are not that I'm trying to do a project which has a SCOD of March 31, 2024, and I'm trying to, achieve and running that race. No. These are much ahead of their, current SCODs.
Okay. So because I was of the view that ALMM modules which are not qualified under ALMM can be allowed to be imported before thirty-first March.
Project, which
Yes.
I am setting up the capacity, has the requirement to comply with the ALMM.
Yeah, but, but Chinese modules would not be ALMM, right?
No, I think just to clarify the regulation on the ALMM, and I think it would be good that we can also-
Yeah.
-offline connect.
Okay.
But there are projects which are supposed to comply with the ALMM requirement. There are projects which are okay without the ALMM requirement. What I am commissioning right now does not have that issue as far as the capacity, because these projects, as you know, some of these projects were auctioned much prior to the ALMM notifications.
Okay.
Happy to connect separately on this and take you through the entire regulatory construct on that.
That'll be great. Thank you so much.
Thank you so much. The next question is from the line of Ravindra Nayak from Sunidhi Securities. Please go ahead. Hello, sir, can you hear me? Mr. Nayak?
Yeah.
Mr. Ravindra Nayak, can you hear me?
Yeah. Am I, am I audible, sir?
Yes, you are audible now.
Oh, sir, sir, can you just throw some light on the horizon by which, where the operational capacity would rise to 20 GW from the current around 8 GW?
I think we have already mentioned and guided about our current plan for this year. Exit should be around 11-ish by end of this financial year. Then, as Amit mentioned, we are ramping up our capability towards 5+ every year. I think the number is then known to you, where it probably would take 2 years or less after this financial year to reach this number.
I think if, Ravindra, you are asking from the context of when these PPAs needs to be executed, under the contractual arrangement, then that is going to be okay. You can say, maybe we... Depending, that will depend upon PPA to PPA, but, maybe we will have like a time, at least with the 3-4 years to complete this, the balance 20 GW, actually, 20 minus 8.
Okay, sir. Thank you.
Okay.
Thanks so much. The next question is from the line of Niraj Shah from GC Investments. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon, sir. Most questions have been answered, but just one question. On the pump storage and other battery projects, do they form part of the 45 GW target portfolio, or they are above and above that?
Yeah. So, you know, that's where the mix comes into the picture. It will be a mix of solar, wind, pumped hydro, and batteries. There is no double counting. So I'm not saying if I'm putting solar, which is feeding into the pumped storage plant, and that's the way I have contracted my revenue, there is no double counting in that. So it will be a fair mix of it, and pumped storage in that manner is included within the 45 gigawatt portfolio, which you are talking about.
Got it. Got it. Perfect, sir. Great. Thanks, sir, and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you so much. Ladies and gentlemen, before we take the next question, a reminder to all the participants that you may press Star and One to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Dhruv Muchhal from HDFC AMC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you so much. Sir, firstly, on your wind portfolio, the paybacks have improved meaningfully. The capacities have not changed much from 900 to about 1200. So is this seasonal? Is this some efficiency improvement or maintenance changes? What's driving this?
Yeah, I think, maybe let me start and maybe give more comments. I mean, I think we had one-off incident also last year, which we did not have this year, so that is partially responsible. But beyond that, I think managing a wind portfolio requires a very proactive approach in terms of looking at the you know, maintenance and how we maintain, how we have spares and inventory. And with our learnings and experience and digital enablement, we have been able to really improve and step up our performance in our portfolio. I would even say that that journey is not complete. I think we still have more room to improve there, and we will definitely see some positive upside there.
Dhruv, actually, if you recollect, okay, underperformance of wind in Q1, when we discussed actually post Q1 call, we gave our view that, in our view, actually, over the financial year, we did expect it, wind speed to pick up actually. And our Q2, the period which you would have seen, is a combination of, the operational improvement, which Amit was talking about, better wind speed, as well as, okay, moderation of impact of one-off event which happened last year.
... Just to add in terms of, you know, checking out the math. So basically, in addition to what, I mean, Amit and Kunsook said on the operational efficiency, I mean, there is across the board improvement in the efficiency. But also in terms of the math, basically, when you look at the capacity increase, this is basically, growing capacity as of H1 and, this year. Correct? So when you look at the weighted average capacity, that capacity increase is also substantial when you look at weighted average capacity-
Okay.
- considering the time weighting.
All right. All right. Perfect. The second was on the hybrid portfolio. So it's about nine months to a year now that your hybrid portfolio has, you know, been operating. So just wanted to understand, what kind of PLFs are you achieving on an annualized basis? Is it broadly in line with what you were targeting and or they are much better than what do you think was? So just some thoughts there.
Yeah, sure. So I think, Anuj, while we for the H1, we have reported the numbers at 45.4%, across the four projects of hybrid, which we have 240 megawatt. The achievement has been very much in line with what we had expected. This is something which the country should follow more and more, when the more integration of the capacity happens. On co-located hybrids are something which will really help solving a lot of issues. So we are very comfortable with the way we have performed. Our modules are performing the way we wanted them to perform. Our operating performance there has been good. Wind turbines, again, those are doing really, really well in terms of their operating performance.
Clearly they are where we wanted them, which is top-of-the-line performance from these turbines and the client.
So for the 240, is it fair to assume about 40% to 42% PLF on an annual basis?
Yeah, you should be able to get that, because H2, you're right, the wind will,
Wind, mm-hmm.
Come down a bit.
Mm.
So we should be able to get around that number and probably slightly higher.
Mm-hmm.
So that's... Yeah. So that's, that should be there.
Got it. And one clarification. Now, you, you said, your presentation says the operating capacity is 8316, but in brackets you mentioned 9021. It seems to do with your hybrid portfolio. So just wanted to get some clarity. What, what causes this difference?
I think I'll explain that. So basically, you know, this is just to clarify. So there is one hybrid capacity of 2.1 GW. Okay, so approximately there is 700 more MW. If you look at that capacity from the perspective of standalone solar AC capacity plus standalone wind AC capacity, correct?
Mm-hmm.
If you add that 700-odd MW, then it is basically effective AC capacity is 9,021 MW. This is just to clarify that this is what it stands. This is where it stands in total, actually.
Okay. But on an inverter basis, your the capacity will be 8316. That's, that's the right way to understand.
So, no. Let's clarify this a bit further. You know, what, when we say 8,316, it's a typical contracted capacity.
Okay.
When someone says that, "Let me build into a SECI PPA, or let us, let me tie up certain capacity," then this is the capacity we are talking about. However, as you know, multiple developers are reporting the capacities in a different manner. So, that's where we are clarifying-
Mm.
that, this capacity is per se, an installed capacity base of 9,000+ MW. It is still an AC capacity. 9,000 MW is still an AC capacity, but since there is a blending of both wind and solar, in case of hybrid, the contracted capacity becomes 8,316.
Got it. Understand.
And-
Yeah, yeah. This makes it clear, yeah. And just the last two things is, just to reconfirm, you mentioned the target for this year is about 2.8 GW. And also, if you can mention the CapEx amount that you're planning for this year.
Yeah, CapEx actually only remains what we have guided in the past. Okay, there may be a slight moderation to reflect the recent softening of module prices actually.
Mm.
What we have guided is going to be nearly 14,000 MW CR to achieve 2.8 to 3 GW. Okay, that still remains now.
Got it. So thanks, thanks so much, Anupam. Thanks.
Thanks.
Thank you so much. The next question is from the line of Anuj Upadhyay from Investec. Go ahead, sir.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. I just want to understand, you know, factoring the trend that the module prices are now falling. So what incremental or the escalation we can assume on the IRR for the project, which we have already been bidded, but yet to be tendered out? Secondly, also want to, you know, get a sense of your assumption on where the module prices could remain going ahead, say, in the near term, another 6, 7 months and over time period, whether it's expected to remain at a similar level or it could oscillate from here on?
Sure. So I think, taking the second question first on the module prices, you know, yes, there has been recent, significant fall, I think, as high as depending on the timeline you take. If you take a year's timeline, probably around 20% fall in the prices. However, we do take a lot of supplier feedback, a lot of, market intelligence when we plan for our projects, whether we... when we bid for those projects or when we, plan for the projects, coming this year or next year. So our CapEx do reflect, the longer term, or I would say medium-term views around, the some of these commodities. And-...
However, as you have seen in the past, the prices do go in one or other direction by a significantly higher velocity than what you would see in a normal economic environment. Now, yes, in the last, as I said, in the last few months, the prices have come down probably around $0.15 right now. This will give us some benefit as what Kunsek has mentioned on the uncontracted capacity. Generally, a cent of module raises the returns by 1.2% on the equity IRR. That is the broad measurement, but again, it is dependent on the tariff at which you are talking about.
In terms of our expectation on the module prices for next year, we do believe that there has been a very sharp decline recently. But at the same time, given the glut of capacity which is being seen in China, as well as the moderation of the economy, this should be in similar range. It is difficult to, again, say, predict a $0.01 or $0.02 move this side, that side, but probably it is safer to assume that if we are talking about next 12 months, this is where it should be. But again, it's a pretty dynamic market. We have seen one polysilicon plant burning in China leads the prices much higher.
So I think we need to be very vigilant about how things move and plan it in a manner where you have your base returns protected when you make your assumptions for a particular project. I hope I answered the question.
Yeah, that's helpful, sir. One, just to reconfirm, you mentioned change in $0.01 bring about 1% or 2% kind of variation in the IRR.
1 to 1.2%
1 to 1.2 for $0.01.
Depends on the tariff at which we are putting up the project.
Yeah, fair enough, sir. Secondly, sir, you do mention that currently we are targeting to execute 2 to 3 gigawatt of capacity. We have around 8+ gigawatt, which are under concession phase. Can you just give a broad timeline on when exactly we plan to execute all this? I'm coming this question, you know, just in order to understand or get a sense of when, you know, on which phase, you know, probably Adani Green would come back to market aggressively so as to scale up their capacity or meet the target 45 gigawatt capacity by itself.
Yeah, I think, maybe I'll let Raj talk about when we will do the 20, and then I'll maybe comment on the question you asked also.
Yeah, sure. So I think, just to be, again, talking about the numbers, we are at 8.3 odd today. We're adding close to 2.8 this year. We'll be around 11 by end of this year. We are geared up right now working on that. Pretty confident that we'll be doing 5+ gigawatt year-on-year going forward. And, once we achieve that 5, I'm sure there will be KRAs for us to increase that further from 5 to higher. And that's what the DNA is. So coming back, yes, probably, after the end of this year, not more than two years for the balance capacity until 20. But internally, we do not necessarily focus on 20 as a number.
We are very much clear that our targets are 45 gigawatt by 2030, in a manner where we are enhancing our returns beyond the current profile, and we will ensure that the portfolio mix is such. So I'll just invite Amit to comment on the second part.
Yeah. So thank you, Raj. I, I think, it is very important for us to recognize that, you know, we have to get our capacity to execute these projects fast so that we protect ourselves from execution risks, cost variations, and at the same time, we need to maximize our margins and pricing as well. A lot of better pricings are available when you have a solution-based approach. And as you heard us talk about projects like, pump storage, projects like C&I projects, projects where we have, merchant risk, and we have a portfolio, and the size of portfolio where we can do that, always bring us better returns. So our approach is, in the, in the short term, is to make sure that we take advantage of that, and we grow the portfolio in that direction.
So you will hear us in the next, I would say, 6 months announce a few projects where we are stepping up and going after that projects. We don't believe that signing vanilla PPAs will bring us the best returns. So we will be carefully monitoring the market, and we'll participate where, you know, we, we essentially make sure that we high grade our portfolio and get the best returns for our shareholders.
Fine, sir. That's helpful and that's it from my end. Thanks.
Thank you. As there are no more further questions, I would like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Thank you. I believe we, you know, had a great quarter, great Q1. So thank you to the team and all the management team, which has been part of delivering this. And before we close the call, let me reiterate that at AGL, we understand the importance of our role in mitigating climate change risks. We firmly believe that apart from delivering returns to our shareholders, it is a moral imperative for us to build a cleaner planet for our future generations. We'll do that by focusing on five key pillars: by delivering an affordable renewable energy along with storage solutions to our customers, capitalizing on project execution experience we have built over the years, development of human capital and expanding local content and supply chain, accelerating digitalization, while optimization of our financial costs as well. Thank you.
Thank you for joining us today, and we look forward to meeting you, as and when we go. Thank you.
Thank you Anuj, Investor team and Chorus team for organizing this call. Thanks a lot. Bye-bye.
Thank you so much. On behalf of Investec Capital Services, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.