Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Adani Ports and S EZ Q4 FY26 earnings conference call hosted by Avendus Spark. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Bharanidhar Vijayak umar from Avendus Spark. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good evening everyone. On behalf of Avendus Spark, I welcome you all to the 1Q FY2024.
earnings call of Adani Ports and SE Z . Representing the company, we have Mr. Ashwani Gupta, Whole-Time Director and CEO, and Mr. D Muthukumaran, CFO.
Mr. Pranav Choudhary, CEO, Ports.
Mr. Divyej Taneja, CEO Logistics, and Mr. Rahul Agarwal, Head of Investor Relations and ESG.
Now I'm handing over the call to the management. Over to you, Rahul.
Thank you, Bharani . Good evening everyone and a very warm welcome to the earnings call. We will begin this call with opening remarks from Ashwani and then we will open the floor for Q&A. Ashwani, over to you.
Good evening and thank you for attending the earnings call. I'm excited to share with you APSEZ's remarkable performance this quarter, which truly showcases our robust execution capabilities and reinforces our commitment to strengthening our integrated transport utility proposition. Specifically, I would like to highlight three aspects of our performance this quarter. Firstly, the International Port saw 22% revenue growth with EBITDA margin improving to 21% from 13% last year. Haifa Port delivered its highest ever quarterly revenue and operating profit this quarter, led by 29% growth in cargo volume.
Secondly, our Logistics sector revenue doubled to INR 1,169 crore. This was driven by trucking and international freight network services, both high return on capital employed businesses. Furthermore, we enhanced the EBITDA margins across our other logistics businesses from 27% last year to 29.6%. Thirdly, the Marine business also saw significant growth and margin enhancement. The revenue surged 2.9x to INR 541 crore, propelled by fleet expansion from the Astro acquisition and new vessel purchases. Our diversified marine fleet now stands at an all-time high of 118 vessels. Year on year, marine EBITDA margin improved from 40%- 55%. Domestic ports handled 6% higher cargo volume and increased market share to 27.8% from 27.2% in Quarter 1 FY 2025 while delivering a higher EBITDA margin.
S&P
Global has revised its ratings outlook to positive from negative while reaffirming the BBB rating. This demonstrates our strong P&L as well as a strong financial discipline to keep the net debt to EBITDA 1.8x. We continue to focus on capacity expansion. During the quarter we commenced our operations at the Colombo as well as at our new export berth in Dhamra. Additionally, we have started construction of phase two in Vizhinjam and Colombo as well as two new berths in Dhamra. The remarkable growth across three engines of our integrated transport utility proposition—Ports, Logistics, and Marine—positions us strongly for sustainable growth and ensures we remain within our FY2026 guidance range. I thank you and we will now invite you for the questions.
Thank you. Ashwani .Moderator, w e can start by opening the floor for questions.
Thank you very much, sir. We will now begin with a question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask questions may press star and one on your touchstone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handset while asking a question.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait.
A moment while the question queue assembles. You may please press star and one to ask questions. The first question is from the line of Nidhi Shah from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
The share of the basically the domestic volume has grown, you know, in absolute terms by about 6 million tons. If we remove the Vizhinjam and the fact that, you know, the cargo has sort of bounced back at Dhamra, we don't really see, you know, much of. Sorry. At Gangavaram cargoes downtown there is no growth in other assets in domestic. That is the first thing. Second is that even in the easy international. What is the breakup for the V 7.2 that we are reporting? Sorry sir, you are not audible. You were not audible.
Sir, can you hear us now?
Yes, sir.
Okay, now, thank you. Thank you for the question. I will go first with the easiest one, which is the International. International, Haifa has done 2.9 million metric tons. Tanzania has done 3.5 million MT . Colombo has done 1.4 million MT . You are 7.7 as International contribution. That's the answer to your International thing. Now, on the volume, I do appreciate that we can eliminate Vizhinjam. We can eliminate, we can eliminate Gangavaram, we can eliminate Dhamra. We do have to appreciate that the strategic location of all our 15 ports and all the commodities from container to dry cargo to liquid enable us to absorb many fluctuations in the global trade. In the last quarter, there were two things which happened which had, let me say, a negative impact on our overall volume.
As you know, Mundra still brings a significant amount of volume share in our total domestic cargo, right? Last year we talked about 200 million MT , right? Now, when we look at Mundra, what exactly happened is the biggest impact which came in Mundra is because of the geopolitics and some of the nights when we had to close the Mundra port because of the blackout. I think you understand exactly what I'm talking about, right? The second thing is because of the restrictions which were made by the Indian government for a certain country as a consequence of Operation Sindur, also disturbed the shipping line routes because Mundra is the last call of port before our neighboring country. Definitely, when we disturb the trade traffic, it takes time to adjust.
It happened in May, it started improving in June, and in July, already we have seen that the container volume in Mundra has come back, is coming back, and we are 10% more than what we did in June. That is more on the container and specifically in Mundra. That's the first thing. The second thing is when you talk about Dhamra, Dhamra is dry cargo. In the dry cargo in Dhamra, the biggest drop we saw was iron ore. This is not about performance, this is about again the total trade. However, we gained the market share in iron ore by 2.1%. The overall commodity business dropped, which is again a consequence of the international business conditions. However, we offset this drop by the, by the coal. That's why we started a new berth. We decided to invest in two new berths in Dhamra.
Finally, the Gangavaram, which had an unfortunate incident last year, has come back and is picking up well. What I would say is that with these two or three reasons, we definitely saw a drop in quarter one. From July itself, if you would have seen our numbers, we have started recovering it. That's what I can say. I'm very happy because we are here with all the team, very happy. If you have a very specific question in moving forward.
Just touching upon, if you look at the overall data for Indian ports, overall Gujarat volumes, which is including say your Kandla and Gujarat overall, the drop in volume is not very significant. Whatever drop in volumes that we are seeing in those volumes is sort of reflecting how much drop we have, so broadly my assumption is that volumes have not fallen at any other ports in Gujarat. Is that a correct assumption? Why is the case then like that only for us?
Yeah, hi, this is Pranav. As Ashwani just was mentioning just a while.
Back.
Mundra is on a shipping route for all the services of the shipping.
Language or in India is the last.
Port of call, which basically means significant warmups of the neighboring countries, gets dropped.
To pick up there as a transshipment
cargo out of Mundra. If you actually see on a gateway cargo, that means on an exit cargo we've actually posted a handsome growth, about 4% or so. The resultant negative growth is coming because of the transshipment cargo or transshipment boxes not coming in at Mundra, going to two reasons which Ashwani just mentioned. The embargoment imposed by the country on the boxes originating to.
From the neighboring country.
The disturbance on the shipping group, which this, the geopolitical issue caused, that's the main reason.
The transshipment cargo .
We're now seeing picking them back.
All right, if I could just ask one last question on the Logistics. What are some of the key growth drivers that we're seeing for the improvement of logistics revenues? Not only, you know, year-over- year, but also quarter-over-quarter.
I think Logistics, we are growing in each and every vertical. Logistics is a big business vertical and in Logistics we have, first of all, I will go by the sequence. We have rail, then we have the ICDs, then we have the trucking, and in between we have the international freight forwarding. Mr. Divyej Taneja, who is the CEO for ADL, would explain. Once again, each and every business vertical of logistics is increasing.
Hi, Divyej here.
To add to what Ashwani said, apart from what we was on the rail and terminal side, there is also a strong growth on the trucking and on the forwarding. What we would like to specify is that we are now moving into a more integrated model. You will see improvement on the bottom lines as well. This is what is driving the growth where we're leveraging infra both hard and soft to get us into these territories. Moving forward we're expecting a same rate, if not stronger rate of growth.
All right, thank you so much.
Yeah, hi, this is Muthukumaran. Let me take this opportunity to actually, you know, sort of answer this question at a slightly higher level. I want to draw your attention to page number 17 of the Investor deck. It has got a ton of details. We tried to break the monotony of reading. Instead of a table, we have actually given in different forms. There is lots of information in that page. We have given the total revenue which has gone up by 5% and EBITDA has gone to INR 212 crore. We've given the breakdown by business as to how much it has grown in the last one year. Here we've also given the EBITDA percentages of the respective business tracking International Freight Network and the rest of the Logistics business, which actually traditionally was a core business in the Logistics vertical.
For your detailed analysis, we've also given a few notes and I do draw your attention to actually read that page a little bit in a lot of detail with time. Please do revert to us with any questions you may have after that as well.
Thank you, Nidhi.
Yeah, thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Priyankar Biswas from JM Financial. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks sir for taking my question. My first question is like I see that there has been some moderation in the EBITDA margin at Dhamra Port. Any specific reason behind this?
No, there is.
There isn't any particular reason or there isn't any sustaining reason. These are just, you know, sort of seasonal variations. In this particular quarter, you know, from a volume perspective, we have got a heavy incoming volume on coastal coal and there have been a little bit of fluctuations that you normally see in, you know, for a part of the year. You can see it historically.
Also, iron ore fluctuates.
In this quarter we had a lower iron ore volume, and that is the reason why, actually, you know, sort of the EBITDA margin is what it is.
If you take a full year.
Perspective, we expect all these temporary fluctuations to be smoothened out.
Okay sir, if I may just go into so far for 1Q and if I include the July volume as well, which you disclosed yesterday, I think it seems to be trending slightly below the FY2026 guidance on a monthly 100 basis. Can you give the moving parts, like how we would catch up to at least the lower end of the guidance? Also, if you can add one more thing, despite these volumes being slightly lower, the EBITDA is still very much tracking your overall guidance, like INR 22,000 crores. If you can just explain the dynamics behind it, how could we for the premium.
Yeah, okay, I think on the volume front we have two reasons. The first I explained already about Mundra, and in July you would see that container is 10% higher now, so we are recovering back. Hope you listened to my detailed explanation about the volume situation of Mundra, so that will be for sure recovered. The second one is, if you know, this year the monsoon arrived a little bit earlier, so we should be. The total energy demand in quarter one dropped by more than the utility went down by - 1.5%, right, so the utility generation, and this was mainly because of the monsoon early arrival. If you see, just because of monsoon early arrival, hydro went up by 13%, so in quarter two definitely we are seeing the energy demand coming back.
When energy demand comes back, definitely the coal comes back, so that will give the answer for the coal. I think rest all the commodities are in line. We don't expect much change in the iron ore. I think it will be still, I guess we are not expecting, we are not counting on it, but our focus moving forward is on having container volume as well as the coal. In addition, this is based on commodities, but we also have the ports which are really doing good. We see the port Colombo, which is doing much better than what we expected. We see Vizhinjam, which is doing much better than what we expected.
We see Gangavaram, which is doing better than what we expected, and I think with all these ports and the commodities, we believe to be within the guidance, and as you can see our numbers from yesterday, it's not impossible for us to aim for that target. Now, the second question comes to the EBITDA. I think at first you would have seen the EBITDA percentage of domestic ports, and this is what we have been saying again and again, that our focus is three: Number one, to increase the market share; number two, to increase the revenue per ton; and number three is to optimize the cost per ton.
I think you can analyze that from our P& L, that we are progressing very strongly in a very robust manner on all the three indicators, and the consequence of this, you will see the increase in the EBITDA margin in percentage. Having said that, that was when we were only a port company and we were focusing on the EBITDA in percentage. Now, when we transformed our company from a port company to integrated transport utility company, we are addressing the various business segments. Whether it is logistics, in logistics we have rail, we have ICDs, we have trucking. In marine, we have onshore, we have offshore and so on. Here we don't have to compare the EBITDA percentage with the port percentage which we have in APSEZ; we have to compare the percentage with our competition peers.
If we are doing in logistics close to 29% excluding trust, which means we are better in the market. If we are doing close to 50% in marine, we are better than pocket. Obviously, when we consolidate all these business verticals including sub-business verticals at APSEZ level, definitely the mix of Logistics and Marine is increasing but the percentage EBITDA is less. The overall mix in terms of percentage is decreasing. However, the absolute sum is increasing. That's why our absolute numbers are not, and I repeat, and I think in every quarterly call I'm saying, our financial numbers are not linked to cargo volume only now. We have the other things which are driven by all the other business verticals which are coming up and that answers to the INR 12,000 crores. As Mr. D.
Muthukumaran said, if you see slide number 17 on the Investor deck, you will come to know that our absolute amount of revenue is growing. EBITDA is also growing but not in the same proportion. You will see the marine also in the same. Hope it answers your question.
Yes sir, that was very comprehensive and thanks for that. If I can just squeeze one more in, on the Logistics business, what is your eventual target ROCEs for the business, and if you can just add what would be our share in the real market.
As far as ROCE is concerned, you know we have told you that actually our return on equity expectation is 16% in rupee terms. You know we expect that we will surpass that amount quite significantly with a good margin once the logistics business grows to a size in times to come. On a weighted average cost of capital basis, our threshold is 10% but we expect, you know, sort of a significantly higher number of return as we stop gestating with business.
The overall strategy for running our logistics business is a hybrid model. This hybrid model is a combination of asset heavy and asset-light, which will give a higher and a very balanced return on capital employed. Rail and ICDs could be asset heavy, whereas trucking, the international freight, freight network services, these are very asset-light. The combination, we want to deliver the return on capital much more than what is in the market today.
Okay, thanks sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Achal Lohade from Nuvama Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Good evening sir. Thank you for the opportunity.
Sir.
Congratulations for great performance on the margin front. The domestic margin, 74.6%. Just wanted to check on Vizhinjam. You know, the 89% margin, is that a new normal? Given the automation what we had and the scale of what we are going to see there, should we assume this is a new normal margin? Because I see that is one of the triggers for the margin improvement in the quarter as well as going forward.
I'm sorry, sir, we are unable to hear you.
So.
No, thank you.
I think our CFO is going into the numbers. Please go ahead.
Sure, sir, thank you.
Why don't you go on to the next question. We'll just reply to the first one, but we have another one. Please go ahead.
Yeah, sure.
The second question I had, you did explain for Mundra. If I look at just the commodity mix in case of Mundra, you did explain the weakness in the container part. How about the other cargo? We've seen the other cargo like in case of dry cargo, it's down like 30% YoY. For the last two quarters we have seen the pain in case of Mundra Port for the other cargo. In general, if you could, I know you've clearly highlighted about the guidance for the full year. Just trying to get some more deeper understanding on particularly Mundra Port, like other cargo is also down some 21% YoY. If you could talk a little bit about what is.
I think you.
You nailed the question.
Thank you very much. You know that Mundra, you have one side which is container, right? On the other side we have the dry cargo, of course, we have liquid and so on. I think let's talk about dry cargo and in dry cargo let's talk about, let's talk about the coal and that coal is linked to the overall energy demand of the country. At first, as I said in quarter one, FY2026, the total demand in the country went down by 1.5%. Especially the generation of the thermal power was 8, I repeat, 8% less, so minus 8% was the thermal power. However, the renewable energy went up by 25%, hydro went up by 13%, and the nuclear went up by 11%. Let's first start from the country level. Then we come to the coal. How was our performance in the coal?
For coking coal, where we absolutely see the demand in the infrastructure, our market share went up by 9.8%. In power coal, our market share went up by 3.1%. Yes, in terms of import or export we went down. Now what is Mundra? Mundra is two thermal power plants, right? You have Adani Power plant and you have the startup power plant. Both the plants use imported coal. When the imported coal is going, when the energy demand is going, is going down, when the imported coal is going down, definitely the port where we have the maximum exposure to the import coal will have the impact. This is the impact which we have seen in Mundra which, because of the energy demand coming back and moving forward, should be recovering. However, as I said, our main focus is always, always and always on the container business.
That's why we are investing heavily in the expansion for the container berth capacities. That's the answer I would give if you talk about Mundra dividing a container as well as the dry power.
If that answers the question, I can go to your first question.
Sorry, I'm hopping on this. I clearly understood that very, very sound explanation for us in terms of understanding the coal part of it.
If I look at the other.
Cargo which is basically X of coal container that is still like 9 million tons. If I look at the number out of 48 million ton, 31 was container, 8 million ton was liquid. I'm just curious to know that 21% drop in the other cargo that's largely using it is largely driven by coal. If I remove the coal it's around 30% YoY from 2.7 to 1.9.
Are you asking company aggregators or are you?
No, no, only for Mundra. I'm just asking for Mundra Port. 2.7 in 1 Q FY2025 went down to 1.9 dry cargo. I'm talking about, sir.
X of coal.
Also, this is Pranav. From a coal perspective, yes, we've seen a drop of about 20% in Mundra in quarter-to-quarter cases. Now, as Ashwani, you were mentioning, largely a function of the coal, largely a.
Function of the electricity demand in the country.
The two specific power plants that we have are the major importers of coal at our terminals.
One of them, to be very.
Proud, one of them actually had taken a large position on the import in the quarter at the year beginning. When we opened the year, they were running with a large import stock already. To the customer, import arrivals in the first two months were a little slow. The second user, second importer which we're talking on the second big power plant, they're actually, it's in the, it's.
Out in the media.
They are actually going under a Section 11 issue today, where the plant is shut down for the want of permission from the CERC.
I think that too has.
Actually, they are. They're kind of transitionary.
In phase right now.
We've seen volume from the first user picking up from the second user. I think we're hoping that situation will get set right in a month or so when the volume will start picking up. Another contribution to the dry cargo in Mundra is fertilizer in a big volume. So fertilizer of course you know the.
Government's in season started late.
Now we've seen from this month onwards a balance of fertilizer arrival. You will see that number leveling up in the next quarter. I think if you look at, if you would look up half year.
To half year position, you would see.
A better number there.
Yeah, I think please have a look at 200 page. 222. There's no page. Sorry, I apologize. From next time we will write the page numbers when we have 300 pages booklet, but I could say that in one of the pages in appendix when you see Mundra. I understand what you said. Last year we did 51.14 million MT and this year in this quarter we did 47.96 million MT . The coal has gone down from 8.7 to 7.14, so that's 18%. This is exactly the story which we tried to explain. The liquid has gone up from 0.59- 0.68, which is 14% increase. The crude from 7.45- 7.51, so that's 1% increase. If you look at containers, 31.71- 30.72, so this is minus 3% growth when we have minimum double digit growth.
This is definitely the challenge which we face in quarter number one and we are focusing on it. You see July, which is 10% higher than June. In containers also we have two, one is EXIM and the second is transshipment. This is exactly what we are focusing on. RORO from 0.04- 0.005. Definitely as Pranav explained, we have the fertilizer which comes in the others. If I would say, you know, where we have to focus and demonstrate the growth which we have been demonstrating month on month, quarter on quarter, it is container, container and container focusing on as well as transshipment.
Actually, just to contextualize the answer, see your question comes from non-coal drive cargo.
Yes.
Which is actually, you know, 5%. Sorry, could you hear me?
Yes sir, please go ahead.
Yeah. You know, which actually contributes 5% to the total volume of Mundra. There the variation is instead of 5%, it is 4% this time. It's a 1% variation to the total volume, which also as has been explained is because of late arrival of fertilizer that should catch up. We don't expect this to be any significant enough reason for any deviation.
Got it.
Sir, if you could explain the first question in terms of.
Vizhinjam actually includes INR 92 crore of government support, which was part of the original package that will come to the first four quarters of the operations, which actually will go and sit in the EBITDA for the first four quarters. You need to actually see from the operations, you need to remove that 92%, and that gives us a healthy $0.45, sort of around EBITDA margin, and that is in the very initial stage of our operation. We expect this transport to, over a period of time, catch up with the regular margins that we see in our ports business.
Great.
Sir, I have more questions, but I'll fall back in this. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Thank you for your understanding.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Parash Jain from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Thank you.
My one question is more with.
Respect to your long term goal of.
Achieving a billion ton of cargo, and with that regard, after the ingestion of Australian asset, is it fair to say that bulk of the incremental volume growth.
Would be domestic?
Can you tell us what's in your mind with respect to downfield expansion in your existing terminals versus possibility of a new acquisition or a review development in the region?
Thank you
And thank you. Thank you. I think we keep our 1 billion MT by 2030, out of which we said that hypothesis is that we will do 115 from International. As we speak, in 2025 we have the visibility to hit 146 million MT with four ports including Australia. As we speak, you know, we have seen the significant growth in Haifa, we are seeing significant growth in Colombo. It may not be a surprise that instead of 150, you know, we may think of doing more than 150 in International and seeing, you know, what happens because of geopolitics. Maybe, you know, we can think of challenging our domestic cargo. What I'm trying to say is all these roadmaps are subject to, let me say, minimizing the risk and maximizing the opportunity.
If you ask me today, I see much more opportunities in container in India, but also I see many opportunities in the overall trade and cargo internationally where we are located. That's the first thing. The second thing, we are going ahead with the capacity expansion on the containers because containers will always be driven by the country's priority due to the industrialization which is driven by Make in India, which results in EXIM cargo which is container. More and more commodities are being containerized, so that will also give the advantage to containers. Hence, the first priority is to invest in the capacity expansion in containers, whether it is Mundra or it is Hazira or it is Gangavaram or it is Vizhinjam or it is Colombo. The second priority which we are giving on our capital allocation is the RSR, which is Rail- Sea- Rail.
If we are seeing that in the energy there are two things which are changing. The first which is changing is the transition from the thermal to renewal. This we are fully, fully well positioned because we transport solar, we transport wind and so on. More and more it's going there. It will not impact our overall cargo mix. The second is the coal. If imported coal is replaced by the coastal coal and post on coal, that too gives an opportunity of rail. Sea rail gives us the opportunity to have twice the coal loading and unloading because loading is done by us and unloading is done by us also at our port in the different coast.
That's why we decided to invest in Dhamra, which is one of the main opportunities to capture this RSR, and obviously all the ports where we have unloading, for example, Gangavaram and Karaikal and so on, we are investing. That's the second thing. The third is also, I can say, linked to energy or the chemical industries, which is also on the growth path. Here we are investing in our tank farms. Where are the tank farms? We have the tank farms where there are industries, which means Hazira. We decided to expand Hazira, we have Katupalli, and you would have seen the recent announcement that we signed a contract with PCBL, which is for Carbon Black, and we will start Dhamra with the development of the ecosystem starting with the tank farms. These are our priorities when it comes to force container.
I'm talking about coastal coal and then I'm talking about liquid. Of course, you know we have many more to go. That's the one part. The second investment which we are doing is the Logistics, which is, as I explained, Asset Heavy and Asset Light, a combination of both. In Logistics, we are investing more on the technology platform because we know that technology platform will help us in sweating our assets. That's where, you know, when we had this discussion at ICG Tumb, we tried to demonstrate our end-to-end technology platform. The third one is the Marine. In the Marine, we are investing in buying the existing vessels who have bought mid to long term customer contracts. Right from the first day, we are talking about double digits, much higher than the threshold of return on capital employed. This is what our CapEx allocation is for.
This is, I would say, mid to long term for Logistics and Marine. The four investments which we are doing are in the last, where we believe that there will be a potential to do the logistics path. If I talk about Vizhinjam, you know, we know that five years, ten years down the line, there will be EXIM cargo, and it will not be only a transshipment cargo because the gateway to Kerala and the surrounding states is Vizhinjam Port only. That's why acquiring the land to build the logistics parks and so on is also our fourth priority for that. This is about, let me say, the supports, ports, logistics, and marine. If we go international, once again, greenfield is our last priority because the returns will come much after.
In international we are looking for either ground field where you have to do a little bit of CapEx or zero CapEx but a great revenue and a great EBITDA. This is why we went for Australia to have the assets, especially the regulatory assets in a stable country, in a civil economy with a growth trajectory and with the minimized zero CapEx. This is what is our investment strategy and this is what we are working on pillar by pillar.
Absolutely, that's I think very, very clear. Just one thing with respect to greenfield opportunities, India and your thoughts on Vadhavan?
Thank you. You know in India anything which comes up you go for it. Of course it has to make business sense. Even if the business sense is average we'll go for it because that's where we want to put. We don't want to miss any opportunity in any one of the ports along the 11,000 km of coastline, whether it is a bigger pearl or a smaller pearl, because a necklace with one pearl we think sometimes difficult. Right. We want to go for it. Now I think Vizhinjam is a great project. We already started studying and we are in the project study stage. I do believe that this will be a next level of support in India and I think we all have to make it successful.
All what we are talking about, the way this port is being planned, the way it will be executed, it may take some years. I think it's worth working on this project to take. By 2047 India wants to have the 10 billion MT of capacity. Now the 10 billion MT can only come by making these kind of big giant greenfield projects and Vizhinjam is one of it. If India wants to do 10 billion MT , obviously with 33% market share target by 2030 we should be having more than 3.5, 3.5 billion MT . We can't have 3, 3.5 billion MT if we are not party to this capacity expansion at India level. That's what I can say today. When time will come definitely we'll give you more details.
Fair enough. That's very, very helpful. Thank you so much and have a lovely day.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Alok Deora from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.
Hi, good evening. Most of the questions have been answered. Just one question. You know the first quarter volumes have been, in terms of run rate, below the full year guidance, which, since we have maintained the guidance, would mean that we expect much better volumes in the remaining eight months or so.
In terms of revenue and EBITDA run rate, we are still on track.
Is it fair to assume that you would kind of do more than the guided numbers, or are we seeing some sort of maybe a realization or a margin kind of coming down in the remaining part of the year? If I look at last year also, we kind of missed on the volume guidance, but we kind of beat the EBITDA guidance. Just some color on that, please.
Yeah, I think the key message from quarter one results is not a surprise for anyone because right from the first day we are saying that please, we are not linking the financial numbers with the cargo volume because we are transforming our company from port volume handling company to an integrated transport utility company. Definitely our financial models need to be updated. Financial models need to be updated means I think we need data quarter on quarter. This is what our Muthukumaran has just said. We are disclosing our data especially on the new business verticals so that we all can get accustomed to this kind of financial model and make a model which is a good mix, of course, cargo volume logistics, considering asset heavy and asset-light and the marine, which is a totally different business.
The combination of these three business financial models can give us a sort of trend that shows what is the link of these three in our overall absolute financial numbers.
Let me add one level of detail there. That's the bigger picture. To highlight for your benefit, last year our volume miss we highlighted during our Q4 and this chronogram that it was basically, if you close up for the Gangavaram volume, we would have actually achieved the annual numbers that we talked about. The best possible estimate we came up with and we are in the range and we think the same for this year as well. We think we are in the range as far as the volume is concerned. We are able to predict one year in advance with reasonable clarity. We are trying to use an advantage to come to a number which is as close to the reality as hopefully we will achieve.
Just one last question.
We have mentioned in the July monthly update that there could be some spillover of the impact of the weather conditions in August as well. What kind of impact are we looking at? It could be similar to July impact or it could be even worse than that. Any thoughts on that?
No. What we meant was, basically, in the very last week of July there were some delayed arrivals of ships in two of our ports, major ports. We are hoping that will be recouped in August. Whatever didn't arrive in July, some of them will arrive in August and we will recoup.
Got it, got it.
Got it, got it.
Thank you. Thank you. That's all from myself and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Manish Somaiya from Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead.
Thank you so much for taking my question. Congratulations again on a very strong quarter. Two questions for the team. One pertains to Logistics, obviously very strong growth and maybe this is a bit of an unfair question, but I guess what is the competition not doing well in the marketplace that's allowing you to gain such a strong growth and share in logistics? The second question pertains to Ashwani. Obviously outside of the short term noise that we see, it's very clear at least to me that you're on a strong path to your targets in 2030. I guess from my perspective, I would love to at least get some understanding of how you're thinking as you think about the next five years. Call it the 2035 plan. If you can help us with that.
Those two questions, that would be fantastic,
Wonderful. No, thank you. Thank you, Manish, and thank you for your support. Let me say the first thing, which is logistics, and I do remember many questions appeared six months, one year when we wanted to focus on logistics. There are two things which we are doing differently than our competition. The first is we are starting with technology platform. Technology platform is the only way to sweat the assets, right? Because it has got capability to accept all the diversity which happens in the multimodal transport. We can't match rail with a truck using a manual coordination. Rail and truck can match with warehouse with all the touch points in the cargo handlings if we have a technology platform. That's the first thing which I would say, and this technology platform, we have done it in house.
It is a startup inside the organization which has scaled us and is now working well. I think next time when we will have the demonstration, we will demonstrate. Now, this technology platform is run only and only by young data scientists or artificial intelligence. That's the first thing. The second thing which we are doing differently is either it is technology or it is people or it is technology and people both. We believe that technology and people, both are key success factors in logistics. We are recruiting fresh people, undergraduate or senior high school, we are training them, we are teaching them driving, we are supporting them to get the driving licenses. We are giving them air conditioned accommodation, we are giving them uniform, we are giving them food, we are respecting their quality of life.
These are the two things which we are doing which are eliminating the differences in the multimodal transport, in logistics in a highly unorganized and unstructured segment in our country. This was the first answer. The second answer is, how do we see 2035 as far as the global trade. As the global economy grows, global trade will grow. As far as global trade will grow, India with $5 trillion economy and heading towards a $7 trillion economy. By 2035, the global trade will grow. 95% of the global trade by volume is done by maritime and by value, I think 75% or 76%. As far as global economy is going, global trade is growing, maritime is going to grow. There is no reason there could be plus minus adjustments because of some noise. Trade will always happen. Trade used to happen 3,000 years before. Trade is happening today.
Trade will happen tomorrow also. The question is our capability and capacity to absorb the risk in this external noise and our capability to maximize the opportunities in this global noise is our key success factor. Moving forward, how we are preparing this key success factor is to cover each and every touch point in this trade so that the noise can be absorbed in any one of the touch points. If I have a noise, let me say with one line coming from one route, from one geography, definitely I have other geography to maximize it, right? That route can be changed to another route. If I am there on the other route, I will maximize the opportunity. The risk on one route will be an opportunity for me on the other route. This is what about ports in the logistics. Exactly the same.
Using trucking, I am touching the customer, right? By 2035 I am pretty sure that end to end, which is waterfront to quarterfront to the customer gate, we will be handling each and everything. As we know, Manish, in the U.S. it happened before. Now in India also it is happening. How many of us have three to four small packages from e-commerce every day? I am pretty sure there are so many customers in India who are waiting for their container without having the visibility when it will arrive. The way we are progressing, that customer can see when their customer. This will be a wow factor for our customers and because of rate forwarding and so on. Now, 2035 we can also think of, you know, Haifa belonging to us. The post mile and the last mile including all multimodal is with us.
We are not only controlling from waterfront to last mile, we are also controlling the first microblast mile including the inland logistics and I would say that would be the next which we should challenge for you. Hope I was able to give the answer.
Yes. Ashwani, thank you so much for that clarification. Good luck again.
Thank you. Thank you, Manish.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pulkit Patni from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my questions. I've got three of them. The first is Panipat Refinery expansion. When should we expect us to see the benefit of those in volumes.
Panipat was expansion is actually the IOCL. We don't do line by line consolidation. We do external joint ventures authorization. When it processes, it will show up with the share of change, which will be two to three years from now.
Okay.
My second question is since you've shown the breakdown of logistics across various subsegments and our margins are for the last two quarters at 18%, where should these margins stabilize as the mix changes further towards trucking as a segment?
For modeling purpose, what should.
Be the steady state margins for that business?
Can you repeat the number? You said the question. I understood you put a number out there. What was that?
Yeah, 18% margin for the last two.
Quarters you've been generating in logistics.
Where should we pencil that number in.
A steady state basis?
We think actually we should creep up in the margin in times to come and we should get to a number of anywhere between 35%- 40% in three, four years. You know what is more important? Toolkit. It actually needs to go one level below that because you know, you will see in the current mix of our business only other logistics, which is core logistics. Traditional logistics needs capital. The other two businesses that we have now put in there do not need capital. You may have to sort of find out as to how the ROC will grow.
The other point is actually, you know, it's a little dynamic world, you know, in two, three years from now, I think there is still an opportunity for us to go deeper in the business and deploy our capital, even grab more market in the chain, in the value chain. It's a little sort of dynamic situation out there. What I can tell you is that in the next two years we'll start crossing our threshold ROC.
My third question is GS A has stepped aside as the Non-Executive Chairman.
Anything, any particular reason for that?
Anything that we need to know in that regard?
Just to be sure. Pulkit, he has not certified as Non-Executive. He has come in as a Non-Executive Chairman.
Yeah, yeah, okay.
Sorry. Yes, he was Executive Chairman and this is one of those pending things that we needed to do in our internal high bar on corporate governance. What we wanted to do is that actually he was Executive Chairman in two companies, AEL and Adani Ports. Just to set that right, you've become a Non-Executive Chairman in this company. In terms of the management depth, this company has added a lot of depth in the last couple of years. We've now got an MD, they've got CEO Ashwani who's sitting here, and you've also got unit CEOs and business CEOs, so management depth has been added. This was a non-plan transition and there has to be a moment for it to be done. This is the moment. Finally, the other point to note is that he's still the Chairman of the company.
Nothing changes in terms of the long-term strategy and guidance. That will continue. This oversight depth might change, but key matters will continue to be some of the vacuums. It's in a series, in a journey that we have. This is one thing for me.
Very clear.
Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ketan Jain from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir.
I just had one question. I just wanted to check with you on the coal import volumes from Tata
Power and Adani Power if you could.
Provide them for this quarter compared to.
Previous quarter, year on year.
We don't give that type of details, to be honest. It will be a little, you know, sort of too much of a depth, but we can give you a directional answer. In the quarter that has gone by, whatever we have seen in the coal volume, there's been a lot of situation that have happened. Very, very narrow point of what you had asked, it's a dynamic situation. On the one side, there is a minus coming in from the imported coal, but we expect as a company for the coastal coal to compensate significantly. That is why you've seen the company as a whole. We have grown in the coal as well.
I think we should give you the very straight answer. Don't expect much on the coal volume in Mundra. Expect much on the containers, which is main because coal volume in Mundra is mainly dominated by the imported coal. Please consider more containers in Mundra, liquid of course, and the other dry cargo. However, what will be the miss in Mundra because of imported coal will be recovered for sure by the coast and coal in our other ports. That is the advantage we have got. That is what we always keep on saying, that because of strategic positioning of our assets in the south coast, west coast, and east coast, as well as all the commodity capability to handle, gives us this opportunity to minimize the risk and maximize the opportunity.
Understood sir, fair enough.
As I understand that how coastal coal.
Cargo, coastal volumes of coal will offset the lower imported coal.
I understand that you won't be.
Able to give me specific numbers.
If you could just provide the growth.
Rate or degrowth in terms of the.
Percentage for the imported coal by data.
Power and Adani.
We can reverse you on APSEZ.
Rahul will get back to you.
Sure. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is the last question for today which is from the line of Asmeeta Sidhu from MetLife Investment Management. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you very much management for taking my question. I just have a question regarding the rating score. As you mentioned, S&P has reverted you to positive. Any discussions had with Moody's and Fitch regarding their reversion or still see this call.
Thank you.
Sorry, I didn't get the question. Did anybody call them? The question.
You already had an outlook change from S&P. Is there any coverage for Moody's and Fitch on the same line?
We are in constant touch with them, and of course if there is any particular development, we'll be in sort of publishing that.
We are doing our job by, you know, envisioning what APSEZ will be five years down the line. We have articulated that vision into the strategy. We are executing the strategy and quarter on quarter we are delivering the numbers, and the consequence is that we have a very strong P&L with the financial discipline of net debt to EBITDA, which is 1.8x. With the quality of assets we have and the expansion we have, we definitely feel that all the rating agencies are recognizing that progress and believe in our progress. The rest, we leave it to them to rate us and come up with the results, and one of the results we saw last night, which was S&P. Thank you. Thank you for your understanding.
On that note, I'd like to actually—yeah, thank you.
Thank you.
I'd like to start. Thanks for the participation. We have overrun a little bit. I think it's only acute news that there is some active interest. If I'll ask some questions, I'll understand. Look forward to actually any clarification questions that you may have. Please do feel free to reach out and see you in the next quarterly.
Bye for now.
Thank you.
Thank you, members of the management.
Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Avendus Spark, that concludes this conference. We thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.