Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. This is Dorvin, the moderator for your call today. Welcome to the Post-results Conference Call of AIA Engineering Limited. We have with us today the management team of AIA Engineering Limited. At this moment, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you have a question, please press star and one. I would now like to turn the conference over to the AIA Engineering management team. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Good afternoon, good evening to everyone on the call. Thank you for joining us. I hope you got a chance to look at our numbers. I have Sanjay here with me. This is Kunal. As usual, I'll do a number recap. We'll get into, Sanjay will sum up, you know, the quarter in discussion, and then we'll move on to Q&A. Starting off, this was a quarter where there is a shrinkage, optical top line shrinkage in terms of tonnages for the quarter. We were at 60,592 tons, as compared to 74,000-odd in Q1 of last year and 71,000-odd in Q4 of sequential last quarter. And I'll explain, you know, some of the macro issues there.
Total production was 68,000 tons, and that translated into a revenue of INR 1,004 crore, and EBITDA of INR 372.32 crore, and a profit after tax of INR 259.58 crore. So from a margin standpoint, this quarter has been great. From a numbers standpoint, there is a deficit in terms of tonnages for reasons I'll explain. Moving on, for our other income. Total other income stood at INR 82 crore. Of which INR 15 crore, INR 15.23 crore, was export benefits, and about INR 73 crore was treasury, INR 72.96 crore, and INR 9 crore as part of foreign exchange, Forex gain, and for a total of INR 82 crore. Working capital has been a little higher. Receivables have moved from 66 to 77.
Yeah, I think it is just, you know, a timing adjustment, because we have had lower sales, reflecting a higher number of absolute receivables. Otherwise, it's as per regular. Raw material has moved from 31 to 52 days, and stock has moved from 69 to 79. So overall, slight increase in working capital, all, you know, which is, you know, sized, generally, seasonally adjusted, nothing macro to look at. Of course, there is extra stock, and that is also linked to our questions on the tonnage, so I'll answer that. From a numbers standpoint, we did 60,592, of which almost 37,000 tons came from mining, and 24,000 tons came from the non-mining, you know, side.
If I were to compare sequentially, you know, there is a mining's come off from about 45,000 tons to 37,000 tons, and non-mining from 26,500 to about 23,800. So both these segments have seen a reduction. One of the major reasons is... So there are two parts to the tonnage answer. If I look at sequential 71,000 tons in Q4 to 60,500 tons, it's approximately about 10,000 tons, 11,000 ton reduction. This saw about 4,000 tons-5,000 tons of orders that just will get shipped next quarter. That's an annual order that moves. Over the last two, three years, it was generally being invoiced in the first quarter. I think it will happen in the second quarter. So that is one transfer.
The second is, the non-mining, which is about 3,000 tons-4,000 tons, is just the cyclicality of work. Nothing that structural. I think that you see ups and downs in different quarters in terms of when the order was placed, what is started, and what is getting invoiced. But there is an additional 2,000 tons-3,000 tons, you know, which is all clustered for want of containers. So we are in a heavy... This quarter has been difficult on not just higher shipping costs, but also unavailability of containers. And what that leads to is has increased transit time, reflected in a higher FG, and delay of, you know, supply. So one of our suppliers to, you know, the Americas, we were without containers.
You know, what we wanted in June is coming to us in the end of October. So, there are a variety of reasons I'm sure all of you are aware about, of just serious container shortage. A large part of that linked to the whole America-China trade and the Trump administration or new administration duty, you know, strategy that China possibly is following. Hopefully, all of that will even up, but as we speak, our business remains a little in that uncertain domain as far as customers are concerned, because pricing has gone haywire and container availability is an issue. And that's while the 4,000 tons-5,000 tons, 2,000 tons-3,000 tons of shrinkage is here on the container account, will mostly be made good the rest of the year.
But customers are all of a sudden have gone back to what we saw post-COVID, which is on a wait and watch as far as new conversions are concerned. You know, they want to be sure that, item two, that remains predictable and the current shipping regime does not allow for that. And, you know, the timeline and of the supply chain remains predictable, which also is a challenge. So I think these are the two macro reasons why the numbers, the tonnages this quarter seems are a little less.
Moving forward, well, we are happy to announce a brownfield expansion for which is one of our factories in GIDC, Kerala, where we are adding composite mill rubber and composite liner ability, or the ability to produce liners in that with that material. Now, as you all and we've discussed the mill lining strategy, where our endeavor is not just to improve wear, which most other incumbents are attempting to do with the customer. Our endeavor is to improve throughputs, you know, reduce power consumption and bring a whole host of operational benefits for the customer.
That requires us to work on the design, and while we are, you know, we've been in the market now actively for last few years, we realize that this ability to offer rubber and composite becomes even more important. So for us to be perceived as a full suite, you know, a company offering the whole full suite of products. So we are very excited about it. This CapEx has, you know, required us to spend about INR 65 crore. We expect this facility to be commissioned towards the end of this year. So it should not take a lot of time because it's being done in an existing facility that we have. We expect about 20,000 tons of additional capacity, you know, in this configuration to be available to us.
Of course, mill liner sales and penetration and all of that, we've discussed at length in the past few quarters. We remain excited about that space. You know, with the new facility that we have for metal liners and now, you know, with the composite rubber offering, I think, we've our positioning as far as the customer is significantly, we expect it to be significantly different and of course, our ability to bring disproportionate benefit for the customer. So, that is the highlight for this quarter in terms of things we've done. We've also done a buyback. Our board approved a buyback of INR 500 crore, so that should be getting through in the next few days, you know, next few weeks.
Our net cash, you know, stands at about INR 250 crore, INR 3,500 crore, sorry. That will get adjusted for the buyback cash and the dividend that has to flow out from that. Last part is, about CapEx, you know, the plan for capital outlay this year. We are doing about INR 35 crore on captive power, then INR 65 crore on the mill liner composite facility, and money that we have to spend on the first phase of the grinding media, which is about INR 150 crore. So total, as we speak, our outlay remains at about INR 250 crore, and we'll keep updating as things evolve from here. So with that said, I'll request Sanjay bhai for a quick update.
Sure.
We get into Q&A from there.
So good evening, everyone. Just a very quick, additional couple of points, which I thought I want to elucidate and clarify. So yes, there is a definite, challenge that we are facing in this quarter entirely and to a very large extent relating to logistics issues. As Kunal explained, containers, their availability has become an extremely challenging process now. The whole problem, because of various geopolitical issues, but more necessarily because of the Red Sea crisis. So just to give an analogy, the freight cost for sending a container from here to, say, Latin America, which was about $100, has gone up now to $400 per ton. And more importantly, the container availability is just not there, which resulted around 5,000 tons-6,000 tons of orders, which were supposed to be shipped this quarter, could not be shipped.
Having said that, now the whole supply chain time has also extended, and what we used to do in 30 days, 40 days is now taking more than 2 months, 2.5 months to even 3 months. So that's indeed a challenge which we are trying to circumvent. The other part is a little bit of cyclical nature of some businesses. Having said that, on a positive note, we remain extremely bullish and committed on all our mine conversions. So there's no question of any customer not being there or any of those processes being interrupted. It's just that this absolute uncertainty makes us a little worried about what exactly is going to happen in terms of all these logistics issues. So it's a very major problem apart from the cost. Can you please appreciate we work on cost plus?
That means freight is complete passthrough, and that is the reason why, as we explained, some of the customers are also a little apprehensive about the absorbability of these entire freight rates. Akin to post-COVID, one year post-COVID situation, which we have realized that it is not as simple as we were earlier thinking, and it may take a little more time. That is the first part, but having said that, our focus, our conversions, our opportunity, everything remains the same. So this is just an aberration. Let us see. As we move ahead, quarter, in the second quarter, hopefully, we should get more clarity how things are moving, and that is one aspect. On this rubber and composite liners that we talked about, I want to clarify two things. One, it is so to say, an extension of my metal liner capability and the focus remains the same.
We don't think there is anybody else today who can offer same or similar solution. The composite plus rubber is more to complete the whole line of offering which a customer requires. The focus remains the same, that is to offer unique process benefits, which nobody, no competitor has that capability or design or ability to offer. So the focus remains niche. It is the material of composition that changes to complete the offering suite.
And, you know, because you can't tell a customer that now I will not-- He wants for his sag mills as well as ball mills. So this is in order to ensure that we become comprehensive, and we give the same focus and same solution in all these materials, that this capability has been added. It's a quick brownfield expansion. We expect it to be over in the next 3 months, 4 months, and that should see us making a much more, a comprehensive solution provider, niche area only and not me-too kind of product. That's what I just wanted to highlight. So I think with this, let's put the house open for Q&A. Moderator?
Certainly, sir. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press star and one on your touchtone telephone and await your turn to ask questions when guided by the facilitator. If your question has been answered before your turn and you wish to withdraw your request, you may do so by pressing star and two key. You are requested to use handsets while asking a question. The first question is from the line of Bhoomika Nair from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening, sir.
Good evening.
You know, you elaborated on the reasons for the miss in terms of for the lower volumes during the quarter.
Yes.
Now, given this challenge in terms of the logistics aspect of it, while we may be competitive, you know, on a plant-wise or on a production cost perspective, but is the logistics cost driving or the time that it is taking from, you know, what you said, elaborated, and it's taking now 2 months-3 months versus earlier, a few weeks. Does that? Is that what is driving a little lower conversion in, than what we had expected, and thereby, what we were looking at, 30,000 incremental volumes on an annual basis could be at risk?
Well, Bhoomika, you are in a way right, that yes, it is a serious concern. And, I'll be very honest, the targeted volume growth year-over-year, cut that target and the opportunity remains the same. But in all honesty, we want to wait and watch at least for one more quarter before we give you a clear volume guidance, at least for this year. This is a very honest position in which we are today. So it's a short-term problem, but yes, indeed, it is a problem. It's, it's wrong to say that, "No, there is no problem." Conversion may... Again, let me explain. Conversion from an acceptability of the solution is not our issue, but, but the whole problem of logistics is far more worrisome than what it appeared in the initial phases.
As we go deep, yes, indeed, and you know, please appreciate the problems globally are accentuating in terms of the geopolitical tensions. Now, Iran is a new factor. There are so many issues, you know, but having said that, this could be a short-term problem. Let us be clear, our target for, and the opportunity for incremental volume growth remains. Having said that, what could be the exact number we are looking at this quarter? We are not able to tell you at least till the end of the second quarter. We want to wait and watch for a few more months.
Right. So, sir, is there a possibility of us to kind of invest much more in terms of warehousing capacities or to absorb some bit of the logistics cost, which is-
Bhoomika, Bhoomika, I'll be very honest, we are not going to hazard any guess.
Mm.
We are seriously evaluating various options, so please give us some more time, and we'll come back to you. Maybe couple of months. That's all. Warehousing alone may or may not be a solution. We are working at it. All I can share is that we are consciously working at this as perhaps a long-term problem rather than only a short-term problem. That's all I can say at this point in time.
Understood. So the second question was about our, you know, foray into this whole rubber and composite mill lining. I fully understand it's a whole suite of products that we are offering, which will help in terms of faster conversion. But in terms of, you know, say, from other peer set, how competitive will it be in terms of cost aspect, if you can elaborate a little more on that aspect?
So for all these solutions that we're introducing, actually, the whole cost and pricing becomes moot because the benefits we are offering, you know, are in a very, very different realm. So I don't think it's gonna be a price discussion at all.
Mm.
I think the conversion is going to be linked to the offering or the sales cycle is going to link to their comfort and confidence and ability to be the willingness to try a new solution. How urgent is their pain or area that they are attempting to solve, right? It will be a combination of those things and surely not price. So if I put it a little differently, I don't think any competition can offer a directly comparable product or a solution. You get my point? So if it is not comparable, there is no question of price discussion. M aterial competitors could be offering. There are many people who can offer composite and rubber, but not the design and not the solution.
Understood. So what we are saying is that we are going to differ, not in terms of the- what you're trying to say, if I understood correctly, is not that there aren't other offerings of rubber and composite in the market?
No, there are people like Metso, Norcast, Bradken, some other maybe there are, but our offering was on a different pedestal. The same philosophy applies to rubber and composites as well.
Okay, which is on the increased throughput, power consumption.
Significant efficiency related solution, efficiency improvement, cost, massive cost reduction due to improved throughputs or reduced, or increased efficiency.
Okay, fair point. Any update on the, you know, on the various litigations which is ongoing, and particularly the latest one on the U.S.? Any update on that aspect?
Not really. It's a nine-month quarter. As you know, the U.S. is, you know, in a way, subdued. It's a closed room process where we submit data. So we are fully cooperating and making sure, you know, giving all information as required. You know that Brazil is, the dumping is already terminated. Countervailing duty part, which is 6.5%, that's under the sunset review, and we hope to hear in next two months on the outcome of that. Two to three months.
In terms of U.S., we are continuing to supply the volumes as since then?
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yes.
Okay, great. I'll come back in the question queue. Thank you so much.
Thank you, Bhoomika.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Tarang Agrawal from Oldbridge Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, am I audible?
Yeah.
Yeah, just wanted to double check on your open comment, opening commentary. You said about 3,000 tons-4,000 tons of volumes were deferred because of, you know, just a shift from one quarter to the other quarter, and a similar number was impacted because of lack of container availability. Correct?
Yeah, yeah.
So one order, which is about 4,000 tons, you know, has moved to the next quarter. So, but that is just billing. I was just trying to make a difference between what was a timing issue versus what is container and backlog, you know. So about 3,000 tons is, you know, container and backlog, and that's a timing issue between... It's a consequence of containers being delayed, and about 4,000 tons is an order that got, you know, that's just getting invoiced this quarter.
Got it. And now that, you know, almost 1.5 months into the second quarter, how are things currently? I mean, we understand, we've been reading about it, and it doesn't seem like on the ground situation is improved.
No perceived real improvement, I'll be very honest.
Yeah, yeah. And see, what happens in such things is, as you know, where, you know, where they say a hurricane is going to come and all milk and bread gets wiped out of shelves, where, you know, everybody's trying to get more containers than what they need. In fact, you know, it worsens for a period, even if nothing changes on the ground. So today, I think it is a very, very uncertain period right now.
Yeah, because we were discussing the containers that we were booking for August. So June came in August. June came in August. August is now September end or October first week.
Got it. Got it.
You know, the whole thing is, the whole... You know, when China-related issue was there, the whole supply chain got disturbed. This is a similar situation due to this Red Sea.
Got it. Got it. Okay, very helpful, sir. Thank you.
Yeah. Yeah.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashutosh Tiwari from Equirus. Please go ahead.
Yeah, Kunal Sanjay Bhai.
Hi, Ashutosh.
Firstly, this delay is, I hope it's not impacting the production at the customer level as of now.
Not much, not really, because we do have... And it's like, see, what happens is, you see my finished goods stock, it has moved up. This is because the transit time has gone up. Correct?
Mm.
If you look at my own production, we have done 68,000-69,000 tons. So orders, production, everything is there, even at our end and their end. But the only problem is, because you are not able to exactly commit on the supply time, there is a little bit of pullback, I mean, rather, pushback, and people are, we, we are just evaluating the way customers are evaluating. But I don't think any customer, we have any serious issue. Some customers are continuing. New customer conversion process. Nothing has stopped anywhere. It's just that things are uncertain, that's all.
Because, see, I think I understand, I can understand that there'll be delay in conversion because of this thing, but if some customer production gets impacted, then probably it can have a bigger implication that people may not look at because of the uncertainty in it on that. So as of now, that's not the case. It's just that, things are getting delayed, but, it's going to reach the time, and probably we have enough stock at warehouses to manage those things. That is not a challenge.
Correct.
Okay. And second thing, for this rubber and composite liners, this is in-house developed or we have some tie-ups?
No, it's all in-house developed.
Okay. .. once the plant becomes ready, then will you go to customers for trials and all, or something already started at small scale?
We've done trial work, you know, with very small investment. We've done our own pilot project to see how it works. We've done more than 6-8 trials, and we remain, you know, so I think it's a very interesting offering to fill out the whole suite of products.
Okay. And lastly, this quarter, the selling price realization that we got would have benefited from higher cement mix because that has castings as well as a higher priced. Is this correct?
Overall on non, as we've seen the numbers, there's a, the product mix is better where there is higher, non-
Yes.
Higher casting, with higher, higher priced product. You are right, that is reflected in the higher selling price. Yes. Higher realization.
Okay, got it. That's all from my side. Thank you.
Thank you, Ashutosh.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Anupam Gupta from IIFL Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, Kunal and Jamal.
Hi.
I have two questions. Firstly, on this mid liner thing. So when you say 20,000 tons of incremental capacity, will this use castings from your existing plant, or how will it work? Because INR 65 crore, it seems to be a bit small for this sort of a capacity.
No, it is an additional capacity. It is where we are adjusting melt. That's why it's a brownfield, right? Where melting capacity is available, some from an existing, where we are able to do balancing equipment for melting and the rubber part is being added additional.
Okay. Okay. Understand. And, okay, and second question relates to the disruption which is there. So two parts to it. One is, you said conversion is slow. Have you seen your Magotteaux taking advantage of this at all?
No, they are, as far as the chrome capacity is concerned, as we understand, they are capacity constrained. They are fully utilized for last few years. There is only so much that they are able to do.
Okay. Okay, and,
The container issue that is there adds to our requirement to put more on the in transit so that customer doesn't suffer, right? It is prevailed and it's okay during COVID, it means a little more finished goods for us. It puts a little bit of additional timing, timing pressure for new conversions, more than existing. I think it's not so much of an issue.
Right. When you said earlier that this seems to be more of a structural issue now, given the number of times it has happened in the last 4-5 years, but obviously there has to be some options which you're looking at. So the idea would be either you investing outside or having a partner somewhere who is manufacturing closer to the customer, right? So that should be the right way to look at it?
Anupam, give us some time. We will come out with clarity. You are right, we are evaluating various options, but that's all. I mean, at this point in time, let's put it at this, that yes, we are evaluating seriously various.
And listen, the how often will the Red Sea thing continue? The world is in a state of flux, right? So we have-
Mm-hmm.
We have to make sure that we are not doing decision making in response to something that could have been short-lived in a longer time span journey, right? Then you are stuck with a structural flaw if you do something to deal with something that was short-term, right? It happens again, doesn't mean it's long-term.
Right. Yeah, so question obviously was coming from, because you have a very well-entrenched position in India in terms of manufacturing, the overall ecosystem, you have set up pretty well for yourself. So that's why the question was, and you have always said that you do not want to be outside India, given the sort of advantage it is there.
Why we say never say never? The point is that for ... a negative event like this turns up, logistics in, in this case, I think we do a hard introspection on what could be other measures that we can look at. I think we are doing an internal review on that, but, you know, India may, will, and likely continue to be where, I mean, that is where we are, that is where our current position is, right? So-
Mm.
No change on that as we speak. If there is anything else, we will, we will see. For now, it is too early.
Sure. Sure. That's, that's all from my side. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Priyamkar Biswas from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Yes, Priyamkar.
Yes, thank you for taking the question. So first of all, speaking on a relatively long-term basis, so you had duties in Canada and Brazil, so kind of now removed on that front. So what should be the volume trajectory from these geographies, let's say, keeping aside this Red Sea issue? So what sort of volume trajectory can we expect, and what is exactly the status of Canada right now?
Of course, as Kunal explained, investigations have commenced.
So Canada is finished. U.S.-
Sorry, yeah. U.S. has commenced, Canada is finished. I'm sorry.
Canada has a, the way the duty structure is there, I think they have a certain duty component or a minimum price that we have to sell at it, and we are comfortable with that. I don't think there was any... we don't believe we had really, there was a case for a dumping scenario.
Mm-hmm.
But there is a, it's a whole process that every country goes through. You know, it's sometimes to protect its own local industry, sometimes on behalf of the local incumbent. There are various aspects of it, right? It's not a very, very 100% objective process. I think we are fairly satisfied with the outcome. There was fair, you know, review done for all that we had submitted, and we are, we are in the market, and, and, you know, we will, we will try and be an active participant, and that shall happen in due course. I don't think that is a deterrent in that sense for us. We, our objective has always been to be selling at a fair price, and that's not changed.
If that does not change, our opportunity in the market does not change. So as far as Canada is concerned, the market is available to us, and we will make efforts to, like I said, to be an active participant over there. That's ongoing.
Similar in Brazil, that come to an end.
Exactly. As far as long term, your question was that I think while these countries are important, we have always maintained that there's a large opportunity globally, at least 15 countries. Every country has its own set of challenges for a new entrant to come in, and that's what leads to time. That's where, that's what we are seeing. But we are excited because there is a solution which has disproportionate benefits, feeding into something that is really active problems or pain areas for the customer, right? And with that, for copper mines and gold mines, where we can increase throughput, we can improve recovery, are solutions that find a lot of interest.
Based on that, we remain optimistic that our opportunities, not just in Canada, Brazil, which we are hopeful of participating in, but also in all these other geographies that remain, you know, where there is not just a chrome supplier, but also a large, forged opportunity for us to service. I think nothing changes. No duty per se, changes that proposition. These are short-term things that keep happening, and we adjust to that, you know, looking at a longer-term lens.
Great. Well, sir, so just harking back on that, since you highlighted about copper and gold-
Yeah.
What sort of penetration are we there in copper specifically? Because Chile and Peru happens to be the largest geographies there. So how are we succeeding over there?
So of course, we have now, So between copper, gold, and iron, these remain the three ores or metals of absolute focus. From an opportunity standpoint, all the three are very exciting for us. At this point in time, I think before one year or two years, I would say we were just about beginning to enter copper. Now, we are a serious player in quite a few copper mines, and we are working very hard on some very, very large mines. I can only share this much. Gold, of course, we are there with all leading mines, and we will continue our allocation. Same is the case with iron.
So between the three, we—I would not say we are equal, but we are slightly heavyweight right now on gold and iron, a little lower on copper, but we are catching up very soon. So over a longer period, all the three would be more or less equally driving our growth. That is what we perceive.
Okay, understood, sir. So essentially, what you are saying is that right now you are ramping up on copper, so you're heavy on gold. So essentially, like, going forward, like, when the Red Sea situation dissolves, so based on that, maybe 25-30 KP annual volumes could be achieved under those circumstances-
Eh-
-based on higher penetration.
Absolutely.
Okay. Just one last question for me, right? Just for sake of investor clarity, if you can. Like, for a mine, let's say when you are now offering your integrated solutions, like mill liners plus the grinding media sales, because you are offering it as an integrated solution nowadays.
Yeah.
So can you just give some examples of savings that the customer can get in, let's say, absolute dollar terms? So essentially, like, if you switch over from, let's say, forged media to grinding media and get mill liners from you, there would be some additional cost aspect, but how much you are saving with respect to that, maybe some examples.
Yeah. So I think, first of all, we've done some case studies in this year's annual report, and you'll see that once that gets published. But benefits, first of all, there's no extra cost. Please understand, these are consumables they are nevertheless buying. They're buying this whole primary, tertiary, secondary, primary, secondary, tertiary ball mills, grinding media mills. They're buying grinding media and liners, you know, which are being worn out and replaced. So they already have an OpEx budget. What we are saying is, if you buy from us, you know, there will be disproportionate benefit that we bring to the, your process, to the grinding process. So now, if it's a spend of $10-$15 million a year for a mine, if it's only wear benefits, it could be 20%, 30%, 40%.
So that can vary from, let's say, $2-$5 million, right? Now, if you add power saving on it, that could be $a few million. There is recovery improvement, that's another $a few million. If it's throughput, that can be, you know, $tens of millions because, you know, there is absolute, you know, contribution of additional product being ground. So for a copper customer, that can vary from, you know, on the lowest side, if it's only wear, to from $5-$7 to $2-$5 million, on the higher side to maybe $150 million a year. And his input cost does not change. It is still, you still have to buy these consumables.
Depending on how, you know, the depth of the solution and what levers are we adding or what the opportunity exists at that customer site, that determines, you know, the value addition for the customer.
Well, that's great. We actually look forward to maybe the case studies in the annual report that you mentioned.
Okay.
Thank you so much.
Thanks.
...Thank you. The next question is from the line of Chirag Muchhala from Centrum Broking. Please go ahead.
Just a few clarifications on the mill liner part. The earlier capacity that we had of 50,000 metric tons, and this new plant of 20,000, so this both would not be fungible, correct?
No. So it is because it is, that's why it's a brownfield, where we've already got melting facilities, which we will be using, plus we are augmenting the capacity. So totally amongst in our setup, there'll be additional 20,000 tons of this rubber or, you know, composite product. The rubber part is the new factory, the composite part is partially there, partially from our existing facility. So you'll have to look at it now in totality and not just as one vertical separate, you know, plant.
Okay. As far as our segmental reporting is concerned, this entire mill liner gets booked in mining segment, right? Or any part is also present in others?
Mining, mining. Correct, it is a mining product, no.
Okay. Okay, sir. And, lastly, on that Brazil clarification, so basically, now, since that sunset review has ended, so, it would be a zero duty, correct? And, have we reapproached customers and how things look like? So if you can, you know, share some data as to before the duty was levied, what was our volumes and currently what are our volumes, let's say, in last year.
So the duty has two components- had two components in Brazil. One is what's called the dumping duty, and the other is what's called the countervailing duty. Basically, you know, any benefits that you get on export, you know, they are reimbursed back. That is, that becomes sort of a duty that's called countervailing duty or CVD. So 11.8 has reduced to 6.5, because 6.3 was the dumping duty, and that's terminated. So there's not going to be any sunset review, you know, or, or a future risk for now.
Mm.
That comes out of a sunset review. Even if it was 2% or 3%, it comes up for review after five years. Now, the whole, that application is terminated.
Mm.
As far as countervailing duty is concerned, it remains at 6.5%. A sunset review is going on, and it will be, you know, whatever the outcome of that is, I would not have a guess on that just now. But there will be, there'll be a new number on it once that investigation is concluded, right? So 11.8, as it stands, reduced, it is reduced to 6.5, and whatever, you know, further it will get changed to. So that is the first part. Second is, Brazil is an important market. While the existing market that we lost because of the duty is now what we will pursue, but in the meantime, there is, we've also done work on the forged conversions. And,
Okay.
Back of that, we see a bigger volume coming from the market. Going forward in next 12 months, it will be surely upwards of 20,000 tons, is-
Okay.
what we expect in the market.
Okay. And just this last question on this, rubber composite mill liners. So how large would the addressable end user market is? Suppose if they don't want to convert from rubber to metallic, et cetera, and only focus on rubber, then what is the addressable opportunity we are looking at?
It is a few times larger than our capacity. We... I mean, for us, we are working with the captive consumer base that we have, that we want to work with, where we know we have a disproportionate solution. So I mean, the we are not launch... Which is where we have not done a 50,000 tons or a larger capacity, because this is what we believe is a great start and allows us to go out to enough customers, you know, to offer this solution.
But you can say at least a 300,000 tons could be addressable market. Total, between all of our products.
Rubber, rubber itself or rubber composite could be upwards of 100,000 tons.
Yeah.
Okay.
But it is just a number we know. We haven't done much more, you know, because we are not looking to convert all of it to our solution, right? So today, we are looking at a subset that we want to target through this. Okay?
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Jyoti Singh from Nuvama . Please go ahead.
Hello.
Yeah, hi.
Yeah, hello, sir. I just wanted to get a sense on how is the increase in gold price, was it benefiting AIA?
Mm.
Also, if you can share the revenue bifurcation under mining, like, how much is done from gold, iron ore, and copper individually?
So, Jyoti, first, let me make it clear, we don't give this bifurcation for several reasons. We have never given that. But to a previous question, I did answer that all the three are equally important, and more or less, over a longer period, their weights could be equal in terms of the opportunity as well as sales. This is what our target is. Though today, the weight of copper could be a little lesser than gold and iron. Correct?
Mm.
So this is one. Now, more importantly, we have been quite clear that upward or downward price movement of that particular commodity or metal is not a driving force for demand or the addressable market opportunity that we are looking at. So today, just on a very conservative side, and just to make my position clear, our entire focus is conversion of all these mines from usage of forged or other type of liner solutions to our high-chrome, or if I talk of liner, high-chrome, plus composite solutions that we are offering. Now, the penetration today of the high-chrome solutions in this market is about 20-25%.
... of the addressable market of 1.5-2 million tons, if I just talk of these three focused metals, correct? Meaning thereby that I am working on that seventy odd percent opportunity for conversion of those mines from their conventional forged or other related solutions to my solution. So even if the prices of gold doesn't move or they move up, if the CapEx cycles are aggressive or not aggressive, of course, in a given scenario, when the market scenario is robust and very buoyant, logically, people will be more open to spend more on the, these type of my solutions. But as Kunal explained earlier also, there is no CapEx requirement as such. It's just the OpEx part that we are substituting.
So a price movement upward or downward of the finished metal is not really what works to propel our demand or to increase our conversion rates, but it is just this opportunity. Plus, it's a very, very tough situation that you have to work very hard. It takes 1-1.5-2 years for us to convert a mine. There is tremendous working back and forth, our engineers, their engineers, so it's a very intense and very engaging exercise. It's not that I just walk in, show something, and they buy. So, you know, it, and that makes it tough, but also it creates a very, very strong entry barrier, so that once a client is onboarded, generally, we, we keep on supplying for years together, and we keep on increasing our allocation. So this is where we are.
Okay. Yeah. Thank you for the elaborate answer, sir. Yeah.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Uttam Kumar from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
So thank you for taking my question. So firstly, I mean, two parts from my first question. So just from a long-term perspective, want to understand on the demand scenario. So currently, which geographies are we continuing to see an increased traction with regard to mining activity, and which could result us in a better demand for our products? That is number one. And the second part of the question is that, could you give more color with regard to how many sites or which are the sites or the number of sites where we are currently doing trials, trying to penetrate in terms of with regards of product offerings? And of these sites where we are doing all these trials, where are we?
I mean, some could be at the mid stage or at the tangent of the trial stage, which could convert or give us a more confidence with regards to be surpassing the 300,000 tons target, which we are used to talk about and sustaining above the levels.
I think, we need to quickly, of course, given the fact this is a common platform and for many of us, and this could be repetition, but I'll try to very quickly address your question. So your first was the market demand supply scenario. So as I explained, if we talk of cement, it is roughly about 300,000 tons. Ex-China, it is about 180,000 tons. We have a 35%-37% market share across the world. In India, we have a 95%-97% market share, and our total supply, including India, is about 75,000-80,000 tons, and that market is completely converted globally into high chrome. So the growth in cement is directly proportionally in proportion with the growth in the cement capacities, and it is therefore, very, very moderate CapEx growth.
This is point number one. The bigger opportunity is mining, where the market is more than 3 million tons annually. Addressable market, if I just look at the three metals where I'm focused, could be 2 million or little more than that. Out of that, today, hardly 25 odd% is serviced by high chrome. Solution players like me, Magotteaux, and a few other players on the liner segment, and a few other local players. However, we two are the predominant one. Rest all are the high, the forged grinding media suppliers like Molycop, et cetera. And this is where we are working very hard to convert. We believe we have excellent solutions. It is just that we keep on facing all these issues, which many of them are beyond our control, we being a global company.
So if I talk of number of customers or number of countries where I'm present, in cement, it is more than 125 countries across the world. In mining, as we speak, more than 30, 35 countries, several locations, so each mining site is my customer. So we would have 100+ mining sites across the 35-odd countries. But focus, obviously, is North America, Latin America, Africa, Australia, CIS, and then Philippines and a few other, Far East Asian countries. So this is the mix. Europe doesn't figure much in mining, just, you know, if you want me to elaborate. But wherever this mining occurs, today I'm present, and I'm working on several new sites, as we speak, for conversion.
Got it, sir. So secondly, with regards to this brownfield CapEx, which you talked about, INR 20 billion capacities, is there any... I mean, are the realization similar to what we have in the existing portfolio, or is it a tad bit lower? Or could you give some color with regard to what can be the revenue capability of this 20,000 tons? And over the next year, how should we look at the capacity realization levels for this particular segment?
I think this is just enhancing our product profile. Hi, this is Kunal.
...For now, pricing, all of that, I think we are still to be in the market, figure out, you know, what's the best way. But more likely than not, pricing is not going to be a conversation breaker, right? But realization may not be vastly different. So for now, you may consider, you know, similar, similar levels, you know.
Average realization may.
Exactly.
Sure. Got it, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vijay Kumar from Trustl ine PMS. Please go ahead.
We would like to know about the status of your 100% subsidiary, which is Welcast Limited. You recently tried delisting. Is there any update, are you planning to increase the sourcing from there, or is it the process of merging? Any update on that status of that company?
Yeah. As we speak, yes, we attempted for delisting, but somehow it did not succeed. So as it stands now, it is status quo. We haven't taken any other call, so there is nothing on that front as we speak as of now.
Is there any sourcing, or is it not going to be any more sourcing from that subsidiary, or how is it?
It continues. Of course, at a little reduced level, but it definitely continues. As you would have seen, even Welcast results we published a few days back. So we continue to do the minimalistic kind of a volume from Welcast facility, and that will continue till any other corporate decision in this regard is taken.
Thank you, sir. You can look at ICICI and ICICI Securities, kind of merger, which will eventually get the company delisted.
So to be honest, some banks have indicated and drawn our attention, but we are evaluating, so we can't say anything till we have a clarity on the course that we want to take.
Thank you, sir. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask questions, you may please press star and one.
I think if there's a lot of questions, we can wrap up, operator?
Yes, sir, we do not have any questions in the queue at this time.
Lovely. Then let's, we can look to wrap up. Okay, as usual, Sanjay and I are available to take questions offline, and look forward to connecting with you at the end of the second quarter. Take care and have a good evening. Thanks.
Thank you.
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