AIA Engineering Limited (NSE:AIAENG)
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Apr 28, 2026, 3:30 PM IST
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Q1 22/23

Aug 9, 2022

Moderator

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. This is Yashashvi, the moderator for your call today. Welcome to the Post-Results Conference Call of AI Engineering Limited. We have with us today the management team of AI Engineering Limited. At this moment, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you have a question, please press star and one. I would now like to turn the conference over to AI Engineering management team. Please go ahead, sir.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Hi. Thank you know. A very good evening to everyone. Warm welcome to our conference call. This is Kunal, and I have Sanjay here also on the call with us. Given it's first quarter, we've discussed at length on, you know, the plans for this year, you know, on the fourth quarter call, you know, last month, you know, a month and a half ago. We don't have a lot of updates for this quarter. Nevertheless, we'll, as usual, we'll run through the numbers, you know, share a brief on, you know, where we stand on a macro level, and we'll open it to Q&A thereafter.

We've produced about 68,000 tons in the quarter and sold about you know, 67,900, about 68,000 tons of sales for this quarter, which is up from 60,000 in the first quarter last year, but clearly that quarter is not comparable because of COVID interruption. On a sequential basis, we did about 73,000 in the fourth quarter. Compared to that, we did about 68,000 this quarter. Our realization has inched up, you know, to about $160+, you know, during this quarter, largely reflecting the inflationary pass-through that has come along. You know, over last two quarters, we've seen that pass-through that we've spoken of come along. For the quarter, you know, our raw material pricing still reflects you know, the high raw material cost. We've seen some easing, you know, in last.

Increase over the month of July, but still not material in that sense of things. Raw material pricing still continues to be volatile and high, and so is shipping. Most of the lanes where we operate, shipping costs have not yet softened. It looks like when we speak to people that in the trade, shipping costs should start to normalize in a few quarters' time. Given the pass-through and hence the realization increase to 150+, we've seen our revenue is at INR 1,064 crore. Our EBITDA is at INR 267 crore, which is about 25% as a percent of sales, and our profit after tax is at about INR 190 crore.

These numbers are largely comparable to the fourth quarter of last year. Our other income is at INR 15 crores, which is largely export benefits, and which is RoDTEP and drawback. We've got non-operating other income of INR 20 crores, which is a large part of that is treasury income of about INR 14 crores and foreign exchange gain of about INR 6 crores. Raw material is at 44% to sales, you know, in line with the fourth quarter. I think most of the costs are comparable to the fourth quarter. Working capital is again similar to the fourth quarter. We're about 120 days. No significant change in raw material inventory, finished goods or receivables. Tonnage breakup that we have shared in our quarterly snapshot. Mining is 45,000 tons and non-mining is 22,000 tons.

We have slightly slower sales in cement, but more seasonal than you know, anything structural, just a product mix for this quarter. Our non-mining was 28% and mining was 44%, so the 5,000-ton reduction largely comes from the non-mining, you know, seasonal impact for this quarter. Our cash at the end of the quarter was INR 2,065 crores, up from INR 1,868 end of March. For the from a Capex standpoint, investment standpoint, we continue on track for INR 300 crores this year. Just to recap, we're in the process of commissioning our mill lining plant, which is at 50,000 tons. We are waiting for consent to operate, and we are expecting that in August of this year, this month.

Latest by this month or next, we should be commissioning that plant, which will take our rated capacity from 390,000 tons to 440,000 tons. We announced some grinding media plants in our last quarter call, which is of 80,000 tons and which will take our capacity to 520,000 tons. The grinding media plant will get commissioned in FY 2024, so second half of FY 2024. Total Capex of approximately INR 250 crores. Over and above that, you know, we need all other Capex put together over the next two years. We need another INR 150 crores, you know, for maintenance Capex, some investments in wind and, you know, renewable energy maintenance Capex, some capacity building for pattern shop and other things that we need also.

We're looking at about INR 400 crore total Capex, you know, between two years. Of which about INR 250-75 crore should come this year, and the balance should come next year. From an overall market standpoint, shipping still remains to be a cause of concern in terms of our current costs, as mentioned, you know, early on. Clearly we are shifting gears to say that we're looking at growth, we're making this part of the cost conversation. When it comes to conversion from forged to chrome, obviously shipping freight becomes an additional delta that we need to pass through, and that's just something that we would wish was a little lower.

It would have gotten closer to pre-pandemic levels, and we are hoping that that will happen in the next two quarters. Having said that, we remain optimistic of doing 30,000 tons of additional tonnage, you know, full year, this year, and then continuing that pace of 25,000-35,000 tons each year thereafter. This is more directional. Exact numbers in terms of we've explained our constraint in giving exact figures to model just because many variables play into that conversion timeline, and which is where, you know, we'll be sharing near-term guidance and overall structural direction for periods going forward after that. I think that's by and large our mining companies remain optimistic about their prospects. Commodities have done well.

Our solutions for mill lining and high chrome grinding media all feed into, you know, significant material benefits for our customers, right? They're looking at increased throughput, you know, in mines for copper, for example, where that's a very valuable improvement because the quality of ore is worsening rapidly and any inputs which can improve throughputs is very welcome, you know, from the customer side. Likewise, we are able to help with recovery, we're able to help with power costs, material costs, which is cost of raw material, which is cost of grinding media and mill lining, cost of reagents. All put together, we remain very excited about what the future holds, and we've discussed that strategy again. We'll have Sanjaybhai just share his.

Summary on this, we'll move on to Q&A thereafter.

Sanjay Majmudar
Independent Director, AI Engineering Limited

Good afternoon. Happy to just very quickly add to what Kunal said. Directionally we remain absolutely on track as the results have shown. We continue to demonstrate our ability to pass on the cost increase both in raw material as well as in freight as it'll be seen from an increase in the average realization which has inched up to 150+ this quarter. The margins look healthy. Even at the operating level, the EBITDA are in the range of about 23% odd, whereas the reported EBITDA obviously higher at about close to 25%. The Capex plans are on track.

The work for the new grinding media facility which we have announced with 80,000 tons has already started. The mill liner project is actually technically commissioned, but we are waiting for the last mile approval from the local authorities, and then we should be able to flag it off. All other work on that project is over. We continue to maintain the same guidance that we gave at the time of the FY 2022 results call about the growth. In short, everything seems to be quite very much in order. The work on all the new mining opportunities is going on with full blast and I think we should be able to achieve what we have projected. I think with this, I'll request the moderator to go ahead with the Q&A.

Moderator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press star and one on your touchtone telephone and await your turn to ask a question when guided by the facilitator. If your question has been answered before your turn and you wish to withdraw your request, you may do so by pressing star and two. You're requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We have our first question from the line of Ashutosh Tiwari from Equirus Capital. Please go ahead.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Capital

Yeah. Good morning, Sanjay. Congrats on our good numbers.

Sanjay Majmudar
Independent Director, AI Engineering Limited

Thanks.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Capital

Actually, if I look at the freight outward expenses, they're declining almost 20% quarter-over-quarter. Is it there's some reduction in the freight, ocean freight cost or it is-

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

No, that is just the export from India because we've got a fair amount of material in transit also, right?

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Capital

Yeah.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

That's just a quarterly volume of export. That reduction only reflects that. It gets built into a stock value and increase, decrease ultimately.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Capital

Okay. There's no access, there's no reduction in freight cost.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

No, no. That's not reflecting in shipping.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Capital

Okay, we are seeing a lot of this, the power and fuel cost increase happening for the industry in general. We are not so much impacted so far. Anything can come up in that in the future, like say, any increase in power and fuel cost expected?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

We've got some amount of gas that we use for our industrial, but the large majority of our cost is grid linked to power, right? 20% of our power comes from our own captive renewables, so that's protected from inflation. You know, of our total energy, I would imagine, you know, gas is less than 15% or 10%. That's not a material part. The balance is, I think the state electricity costs have not significantly gone up. There is some increase, but not comparable to other energy increases that you're seeing.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Capital

What are the realized rates for USD/INR in this quarter?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Realized rate, just one second. Ashutosh, I'll just come back to you. I don't have it online. Like, yeah, we'll just, yeah. No issue. Lastly, in terms of demand side, mining side, things remain healthy. There is no change per se. Yeah, from a demand standpoint, absolutely okay. I mean, like, the only last bit for our story is taking market share from a, you know, large pie, right? We're not linked to growing that pie, right? That's not what we are focused on or really affects our fortunes. So to that extent, market is there. There are all sorts of headwinds. I think most are getting addressed. Shipping rates is part of our process now, right? It would be nice for that to have evened out.

I think from a demand standpoint, customers remain extremely buoyant. I don't think there is any concern there.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Capital

Okay. Just one more question. We're also hearing that the transit times are coming down in terms of your ocean container transit times. Is that correct? If that is correct, in that case, should we also see some reduction in inventory going ahead over next few quarters?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

I think so inventory will get optimized, but too early to say that, right? It's. I don't think it is linked to the transit time. It is linked to customers' anxiety about interruptions in the supply chain, right? The higher shipping cost also reflects that the supply chain is not back to normal, right? It's still affected in terms of delays at ports for clearances and other things, right? And making sure they have inventory there just gives them comfort that they'll not be affected by any interruption there. Absolutely, there is scope for some reduction there, but no point in factoring any of that today when there still things are not optimized or not normal yet.

Ashutosh Tiwari
Managing Director and Head of Institutional Equities, Equirus Capital

Okay. Okay, thanks. Plus, realized rate was 77.32. Okay. Okay, got it. Thank you.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Thanks, Ashutosh.

Moderator

Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Sumit Jain from ASK Investment Managers Private Limited. Please go ahead.

Sujit Jain
Portfolio Manager, ASK Investment Managers Private Limited

Yeah. Thanks for having me today. When you talk about roughly 30,000 tons of additional volume this year, next year, this is only the grinding area or this includes some lining material also because

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

No, no, it's all-

Sujit Jain
Portfolio Manager, ASK Investment Managers Private Limited

You will be able to sell.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Total volume.

Sujit Jain
Portfolio Manager, ASK Investment Managers Private Limited

Right.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Total volume growth.

Sujit Jain
Portfolio Manager, ASK Investment Managers Private Limited

Total volume growth, including mill liner material.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Yes.

Sujit Jain
Portfolio Manager, ASK Investment Managers Private Limited

Okay. This freight and reduction in freight cost, if you can just explain a bit more, because you are saying it is not still freight costs per ton or your freight cost coming down, and you still have challenges passing it on.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Sorry, can you repeat, Sujit? I didn't get your question.

Sujit Jain
Portfolio Manager, ASK Investment Managers Private Limited

This reduction QOQ in freight costs, if you can explain a little more, because what you sound like and what you tell, and correct me if I'm wrong, is that you're trying to tell us that you're still not able to fully pass on the freight cost.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

No, no. There are three different things you're touching on. One is the reduction in freight cost. The absolute reported figure between Q4 and Q1.

Sujit Jain
Portfolio Manager, ASK Investment Managers Private Limited

Right.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

That figure is simply what was exported in those two quarters and the shipping cost that we incurred on that export. Right? That is, that does not reflect the export sales. Because when we export the billing, it goes on to our subsidiary, and that sits down as inventory over there, right? This line item is net of those adjustments. It is just what we exported and what was the cost incurred for that export. That is not suggestive of lower cost or higher cost.

Sujit Jain
Portfolio Manager, ASK Investment Managers Private Limited

Right. There are still challenges in terms of passing on the cost to the customer, right?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

That much is clear. That's not a lower cost. It is just reflective of the export volume in those two quarters. First point.

Sujit Jain
Portfolio Manager, ASK Investment Managers Private Limited

Right.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Second point is that over last three quarters, as you've seen, our realization has moved from 120, 130 now to 150 plus. We've been able to pass through raw material increases. We've also been able to pass through the shipping cost. Right? Where our EBITDA is coming back up to 25%. I'm just comparing EBITDA and not the operational margin. The same delta will appear over there as well. We may have done a little more in some quarters, but generally speaking, we've been able to pass through most of our costs. That is second part of it, right? The third part is I don't think there is a large part of cost that we are eating today and we've not been able to pass through. I mean, reasonable part of it has been passed through.

The third angle is if my freight cost was $100 per ton before COVID or a normalized shipping, if that cost is $300 per ton, for a new, when I'm talking of business growth and talking of new conversion from forged to chrome, that additional cost becomes my delta over a local producer, right? If I am replacing a local producer of forged type, he's not incurring this extra shipping cost, right? There's a cost difference between forged and chrome. There's an additional cost that is borne on account of us having to ship from India to wherever that customer is, right? That's what we are saying is a cost, you know. We would like that conversion could have been faster had that cost been a little lower. That's our impression now. That's the third part linked to business growth.

Sujit Jain
Portfolio Manager, ASK Investment Managers Private Limited

Which means that eventually, when freight normalizes, your volumes can come back because your product becomes that much more competitive to the local competition.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Exactly. That's why we are saying 30,000-40,000 tons, 25,000-35,000 tons we'll add each year comes from that, right? That's what that was our original model, right? That was where we are saying we are a better product as compared to those for a variety of things that we discussed, right? Scope would be that. Question is, they've become an additional factor today. The additional cost factor for discussion. I would say absolutely. I mean, that cost going down certainly lubricates that conversation, allows us to take that one more cost, you know, for the returns to work. Absolutely, I think that we would hope that as and when shipping rates normalize our growth rates, it would get reflected in our ability to convert better.

Sujit Jain
Portfolio Manager, ASK Investment Managers Private Limited

Our OP per ton of INR 36, I think this is splendid margin. When eventually, disinflation or, you know, softening of inflation prices coming down happens, does it go down or this is kind of maintainable?

Sanjay Majmudar
Independent Director, AI Engineering Limited

First, I just want to clarify that internally, as we have been repeatedly telling, we don't compute all the margin patterns for the simple reason that we don't have a standard unit of measurement in the sense that our product range is very wide and diverse. At one end of the spectrum, you have grinding media, and then you have liners, and then you have castings, and there's a mix of things. However, having said that, freight is an add-on to the FOB price that we charge to the customer, and that is always charged on an actual basis. Theoretically, realization might come down if supposing the freight goes down. As you rightly pointed out, there is a little bit of a directional movement in the freight costs. We see they're going a little bit southwards.

Having said that, there are still pockets where we operate, where things are not moving as quickly. We'll eventually, we think that maybe in next three months or six months, you will see the freight costs really going down. At that point in time, our average realization can come down definitely because that's a function of actual cost being added to the FOB rate at which we have firmed up a contract. However, therefore, from a margin standpoint, in an absolute terms, we'll be agnostic for the simple reason that freight is always charged extra on an actual basis to customer. If you look at the percentage margin, theoretically, it may inch up a little bit. As the freight costs go down and the margin remaining constant, then margin as a percentage to sales can inch up a little bit, but very marginally.

I think it is not fair and correct to take it on a % basis.

Sujit Jain
Portfolio Manager, ASK Investment Managers Private Limited

Right. Lastly, if you can give commentary about the three places where we have GP, that is Canada, Brazil and South Africa in terms of volumes.

Sanjay Majmudar
Independent Director, AI Engineering Limited

South Africa, very little volumes. Canada also, very little this quarter. I think Brazil continues. Our full year we'll do between 8,000-10,000 tons.

Sujit Jain
Portfolio Manager, ASK Investment Managers Private Limited

Right. Right. Sure. Thank you, and all the best.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Thank you, Sumit.

Moderator

Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Amit Dixit from Edelweiss Broking. Please go ahead.

Amit Dixit
Research Analyst, Edelweiss Broking

Yeah, hi. Good evening, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. Congratulations for a very good set of numbers. I have a couple of questions. The first one is, essentially, if you can split between export and domestic in terms of volume.

Moderator

Mr. Dixit, your voice is not clear. Can you please speak?

Amit Dixit
Research Analyst, Edelweiss Broking

Yeah, sure. Just a sec. Is it better now?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Please repeat your question.

Amit Dixit
Research Analyst, Edelweiss Broking

Yeah. The question is if you can give a break-up between exports and domestic sales volume in this quarter. That is the first question.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Okay. What was the second question?

Amit Dixit
Research Analyst, Edelweiss Broking

Yeah. The second one is essentially that, you know, when once the mill liner plant also gets commissioned, so will there be incrementally better margins from mill liners, or how do you look at it? Or will the margins be similar?

Sanjay Majmudar
Independent Director, AI Engineering Limited

All the margins, mill liner margin, you know, at the product level there are margins are different. At the EBITDA contribution level, most part is normalized, right? In the correct current product mix, we have grinding media and we have a non-grinding media piece, right? I don't think you should look at grinding media, but the mill linings separately from a margin standpoint, right? Even at 260,000, if I add 15,000 tons of mill lining, it's not even a material margin movement, even if it was different that time. I think we will not additional margin on that account. I always love to talk about blended margins, and that is how it is.

Theoretically, as Kunal explained, there will be a variation, obviously, but we continue to give all indications about the blended margins.

Amit Dixit
Research Analyst, Edelweiss Broking

Okay. An offshoot of that question, will this mill liners, you know, now that your product portfolio would increase essentially. Would it help you to further enhance the conversions? Because, you know, now you are offering basically one more, you know, thing in the product.

Sanjay Majmudar
Independent Director, AI Engineering Limited

Definitely. See, our strategy is that we target various mines based on different strategies. Within the broad focused, the universe of gold, copper and iron. Okay? There are, as you explained in the past, quite a few mines we approach based on the downstream process related or the downstream process related advantages that we can bring to the table. There are quite a few mines we approach on the liner situation. Our whole idea is that whatever approach we take, ultimately the volumes would want to be doing cross-selling, and therefore our idea is to increase the sales of grinding media on the back of liners or vice versa. There are quite a few mines where we talk of grinding media and then also push liners.

It's all work where the whole focus is we're perhaps the only company in the world who can give all these multifarious solution capabilities which we can demonstrate. Therefore, the eventual idea is that while, you know, the liner market could be just about 300 or 1,000 tons, and we are talking of 40-50,000 tons, new to 50,000+ tons capacity that we have created, dedicated, plus the existing setup. The whole idea is that while we improve or increase the penetration on the liner side, we will definitely the volumes through grinding media. That's the whole idea. Just to answer your question, our volume is also similar to our revenue breakup between 26%-27% is India versus the rest being export.

Amit Dixit
Research Analyst, Edelweiss Broking

Okay. Thanks a lot, and all the best.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Ravi Swaminathan from Spark Capital. Please go ahead.

Ravi Swaminathan
Research Analyst, Spark Capital

Hi, Kunal sir, Sanjay sir. Congrats on good set of numbers. My first question is with respect to the blended realization. Basically, this quarter realization was one of the highest. How do you see the realization panning out, as it's fully captured in the price increases that we need to take, or further rupee depreciation, can it create a tailwind to the realization? Where do you see this realization settling in over the next 12-24 months?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

See, in our view, we believe that the current Q1.

Ravi Swaminathan
Research Analyst, Spark Capital

I think so this reflects more or less most pass-throughs that have come in.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Yeah. I think

Ravi Swaminathan
Research Analyst, Spark Capital

The raw material pricing may not inch up significantly.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Exactly.

Ravi Swaminathan
Research Analyst, Spark Capital

The only difference would be currency and product mix from here on.

Sanjay Majmudar
Independent Director, AI Engineering Limited

Right. It may come down, as I said, if the freight goes down or if the ferrochrome prices come down. I think we are seeing directionally a little bit of softening everywhere. You may treat this as the peak.

Ravi Swaminathan
Research Analyst, Spark Capital

Got it, sir. Secondly, with respect to the efforts with respect to the grinding media in new geographies in Latin America, any update on that? Especially the key countries like Chile, Peru, where bulk of the volumes from copper, et cetera, can be there. Any large surprise.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Nothing to report over last quarter.

Ravi Swaminathan
Research Analyst, Spark Capital

It's not happening.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Yeah. Yes, exactly. We continue to put our efforts, you know, for those markets.

Ravi Swaminathan
Research Analyst, Spark Capital

Got it, sir. Any target volume for mill lining this year and next year from the new facility that you can talk about?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

We'll just leave it at over 30,000 tons volume. Allow us to, you know, just execute this over this year.

Ravi Swaminathan
Research Analyst, Spark Capital

Sure.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Yeah.

Ravi Swaminathan
Research Analyst, Spark Capital

Got it. Thanks a lot, sir.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Thanks.

Moderator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone now. We have our next question from the line of Bhoomika Nair from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.

Bhoomika Nair
Executive Director of Research, DAM Capital

Yes, good evening, sir, and congratulations for a good set of numbers this quarter. Just to extend, you know, on the realization bit, now I understand that, you know, ferrochrome prices have actually fallen by about 20-25% on a spot basis. And not to mention that, you know, other aspects like freight et cetera itself are softening. Would it be fair to say that in a gradual manner, this would be reflected into our realizations as we move ahead?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

It is a pass-through both ways, Bhoomika. That it cannot be, you know, one way, right? The customer has given us the pass-through when it went up. We'll have to be fair and square and, you know, pass back some of those movements. Yes.

Bhoomika Nair
Executive Director of Research, DAM Capital

Okay. You know, when we pass it on, you know, how should we, while I do understand that, you know, it's not fair to really look at it on a per ton EBITDA or a per ton gross margin given the change of mix and other aspects which come along the way. How should one look at the margin profile? Would it, you know, remain in the 20%-23% band? Or with the pass-through element of the lower cost structure, the margin will optically look better, though maybe not on your basis in terms of per ton basis may not really go up. Is that the way we should be thinking about?

Sanjay Majmudar
Independent Director, AI Engineering Limited

Yes. Well, you're very right, Bhoomika. Sanjay here. You should not look at it on a per ton basis. Again, as I explained in one of the previous questions, the correct way would be to look at it as a percentage. You know, when operating EBITDA percentages are around 23%, they might inch up a little bit in terms of percentages as gradually the realizations go down. But as we have always maintained, it is always also a function of product mix. If product mix becomes better in terms of more value-added products getting added, the realizations average level might not fall drastically from the present level. I think from a percentage standpoint, I think we should be good and this should be regarded as quite comfortably maintainable and maybe improve a little bit.

Bhoomika Nair
Executive Director of Research, DAM Capital

Got it. Fair point. The other thing is in terms of the growth, volume growth, we're looking at, you know, 30,000-50,000 on an annual basis incremental volumes over the next few years. You know, as we kind of scale up in terms of our market share, you know, at what point do you think that these, you know, forged media guys will, you know, get up and say, "Okay, we're losing," like the Magotteaux of the world, that they're starting to lose market share and they start getting more aggressive in whatever manner that they can, either in terms of, you know, imposing, you know, getting aggressive in terms of the market, in terms of market. Your views on that, sir.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Okay. I think, Bhoomika

Bhoomika Nair
Executive Director of Research, DAM Capital

This is a long-term perspective, not something.

Sanjay Majmudar
Independent Director, AI Engineering Limited

Yeah, yeah. First, let's be very honest. This whole equation is actually far more complicated than it sounds over a call, okay? There are multiple factors that we always face when we approach a mine. Most important part, what we believe is that given the cutting-edge capability of offering this unique solution, this capability is not available with forged media players. Beyond a point they can't compete.

We are not sounding arrogant, but the fact remains that when they cannot directly have an apples-to-apples comparison in terms of solution capability or the product attributes than what we offer vis-à-vis what they are currently offering, there's a limit beyond which they can't go. Having said that, the fact remains that, you know, they are very close to the customer. They are there for ages. They have that, those deep relationships and the mining manager will always be a little, you know, hesitant in just jumping. That is why, you know, we are actually adopting multi-pronged approach. We believe that eventually we should be able to slowly and gradually gain a significant market share. The market will continue to grow.

Bhoomika Nair
Executive Director of Research, DAM Capital

Sure. Point accepted. The last bit was on the cash on books. You know, we have over the years kind of accumulated a lot of cash, and again, on quarter-on-quarter basis, it's kind of gone up to over INR 2,000 crores. Now that the uncertainty of COVID, etc., is behind and we are back on the growth path and likely free cash flow generation, what is our thought process on this cash on books? Any dividend distribution or any other usage that you have in mind?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Yeah, nothing specific to report, Bhoomika, but, you know, we'll not significantly add from here. Of course, there'll be some accumulation, but over the next two years, because of the growth that we're seeing.

oBetween, you know, the dividend levels we have, fixed asset and working capital may consume, you know, cash for next two years, right? Whether if there's significant accumulation, obviously that mindset will change. For now, I think we're more focused on making sure we do everything to realize, you know, the growth that we are looking ahead of us.

Bhoomika Nair
Executive Director of Research, DAM Capital

Got it. Great. Wish you all the best, I'll come back again.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Thank you, Bhoomika.

Bhoomika Nair
Executive Director of Research, DAM Capital

Thank you so much.

Moderator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone. We have our next question from the line of Raja Kumar, an individual investor. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Yeah. Can you hear me?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Yes, please.

Speaker 13

Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. I have a couple of questions. The first question is, any opportunities AI is seeing from the orders that have been let go by European competitor, Magotteaux, due to high power costs?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Sorry, we couldn't. We missed most of what you said.

Moderator

Raja Kumar, your-

Speaker 13

I'm just saying that, yeah, because of the high power costs in Europe, some of the, you know, competitors, you know, I mean, you know, that would be an advantage for Indian companies, right? Just wanted to know, you know, if AI is seeing any kind of upside from, you know, market share standpoint?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

I think we are not like Europe. A lot of they compete so much with facilities in Europe, so we are not really. It's not a big opportunity in that sense.

Speaker 13

sir, for the next year, the current financial year, apart from the volume increase of 30,000 that you spoke, so what are other levers for margin expansion now?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Oh, okay. You know, there are several reasons which can come in our favor. As our solution.

Speaker 13

No, last year.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

You, you're talking about 2022, 2023, correct?

Speaker 13

That's correct.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Yeah. What I am saying is we have said we have not given any specific guidance about margins. We were only replying to the question that whether there should be a per ton analysis or whether it should be a percentage analysis. What we have said that whatever we have done, 20%-23%, is a pure operating margin that can definitely continue. We also mentioned it could be inching up a little bit from an arithmetic standpoint. Because just for example, if we add INR 10 as a freight to a selling price of INR 100 per kilo, and then that freight goes down to INR 5 and therefore the actual cost is also lower and therefore, theoretically in terms of percentage, the margin remains the same. Therefore, as a percentage to sales it can inch up. That's what I was saying.

Having said that, as our product mix improves, our liner and all other product sales goes up and we penetrate deeper into bigger mines, copper mines, gold mines, et cetera, we believe the margins have a potential to improve. Having said that, we have not given any specific guidance on margin improvement.

Speaker 13

Okay. Got it, sir. Thank you, sir. The last question, sir, I just see that the inventory as of Q1 end is about INR 100 crores more than what you had in Q4. Given that the raw material prices have started, you know, coming down, is there any reason you have built up your inventory? Because we had generally thought that you would have unwind the high cost inventory.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

First, our raw material inventory build-up is very nominal. What is going up is on the finished goods side, if you see, because we are maintaining a lot of inventory across 20+ warehouses across the globe, point number one. It's just.

Speaker 13

It's a timing issue. I don't think that there's any strategy behind it.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Yeah.

Speaker 13

It's just a timing issue at this time and point in time.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

No. Is it to do with your upcoming mill liner project or, you know, it's just a...

Speaker 13

Nothing to do.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Nothing. Just a point in time, like I told you. It's nothing, no specific reason for it to go up in that sense.

Speaker 13

Okay, sir. Thank you a lot, sir, for the details.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. Next in line is Mr. Dhiral Shah from PhillipCapital. Please go ahead.

Dhiral Shah
Senior Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

Yeah, good evening, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, you just talked about the total liner market is 300,000 tons, right? Is it includes rubber and composite mill liner or it is just a metallic mill liner?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Sir, sorry, we couldn't hear you clearly. Repeat.

Dhiral Shah
Senior Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

Sir, you just talked about the total mill liner market size is 300,000 tons. Is it only a metallic mill liner or it includes rubber and composite also?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

That's a metallic market of 300,000 tons.

Dhiral Shah
Senior Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

Okay, sir. Any idea about how much would be composite and how much would be rubber in mill liner?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

We don't have the exact number on it at this time.

Dhiral Shah
Senior Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

Okay.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

1,000 ton is the metal market on which we are focused on.

Dhiral Shah
Senior Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

Sir, since you are entering into this metallic mill liner for the first time, even one of the domestic player who are into mill liner business is slowly disrupting the metallic mill liner market through the innovative product. What is your take on that?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

We are not disrupting the metal market. No. We're just replacing the metal mill liner with another metal mill liner, but it's just got a design intervention from our side.

Dhiral Shah
Senior Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

Do you feel that any threat or going ahead?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

We are already doing 20,000 tons of mill lining for mining each year already. Predominantly outside India.

Dhiral Shah
Senior Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

Yeah. Do you feel any threat or going ahead for the metallic mill liner as a whole?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Not really. That is a different application where metal is a superior, you know, material for the type of grinding that is required.

Dhiral Shah
Senior Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

Okay. Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone now. We have our next question from the line of Siddharth Purohit from InvesQ Investment Advisors. Please go ahead.

Siddharth Purohit
Fund Manager and Principal Officer, InvesQ Investment Advisors

Sir, one clarification. Like in the overall scheme of things, what will be our contribution in the total cost for the miners? Like, you know, basically I want to understand if, let's say copper producer spends $100 for producing 1 ton of copper, how much of mill liners or maybe, you know, our product is used over there. Is it significant enough or-

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Yeah, yeah. Siddharth, see there is no clear yardstick. There are very different types of operating conditions. You can generally say that grinding media, the consumable-

Siddharth Purohit
Fund Manager and Principal Officer, InvesQ Investment Advisors

Wear parts.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Wear parts that we are focused on will constitute 8%-10% of the entire mining operations cost. That's an average. It can vary mine to mine, but this is the average. That is significant. The value add that we say that if you use our grinding media or liner, A, you can reduce the consumption by 10%, 15%, 20%, which would mean a direct 1%-2% addition to your EBITDA. That is point number one. Point number two, we bring a lot of value add apart from the savings that we are talking about. We talk about reduction in the power cost, we talk about reduction in the cost of other reagents at the DP stage, and we talk about improvement in the throughput by marginally.

that overall cost of ownership in the hands of the mine goes down significantly. That is what is unique about us.

Siddharth Purohit
Fund Manager and Principal Officer, InvesQ Investment Advisors

Right. Sir, the reason I'm asking is that in the last couple of weeks we have seen sharp fall in commodity prices. Are there cases where you are able to like, you know, convince the customer that if you adopt our product more aggressively or maybe in a faster adaptation, then probably you can make better money as compared to your competitor?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

First, we try to be as much agnostic as possible to the commodity cycles. Having said that, in a scenario of falling commodity prices, if theoretically the margins of mines come under pressure, then they would be a little more open to look at us because we are talking about their benefit. Having said that, under any circumstances, if you talk of a solution which can bring revolutionary changes in the operating parameters of a mine, they are always open. Initially, before 7-8 years, when we were approaching mines just on a cost savings basis in the consumption of the consumable wear parts, that was not making full impact. Today, we are. I think we have become a much more potent solution provider.

We are talking about significant benefits at no extra cost in the sense that the miner is paying me for the product that I'm supplying. I'm not asking anything extra for the service or the consulting or whatever additional value add I bring on the table. Therefore, I become very compelling. Imagine the case of a copper mine or a gold mine, where we say that we can improve your throughputs by, say, even 0.25%. Then the cost of consumable wear part becomes insignificant. You get my point?

Siddharth Purohit
Fund Manager and Principal Officer, InvesQ Investment Advisors

Right.

Yeah.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

I think we are talking on a much different plane now than just on a cost savings basis. That is what is making us feel very confident that we should be able to consistently keep on getting more and more market share over a longer time horizon.

Siddharth Purohit
Fund Manager and Principal Officer, InvesQ Investment Advisors

Oh, okay, sir. Got it. Thank you. Thanks, sir.

Moderator

Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Ritesh Jha from Lucky Investment Managers. Please go ahead.

Speaker 12

Yes, sir, one clarification. To one of the participant, you responded that the realizations you don't see changing much in this cycle despite the reduction in ferrochrome price.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Can it go higher? What Sanjay responded was is this looks to have factored current raw material pricing. If it goes down from here, our realization will mirror that.

Speaker 12

The current 20% reduction in ferrochrome price is already reflected in the INR 160 realization.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

I didn't say 20%. I don't know where that number has come from.

Ferrochrome is very, very volatile. Every day, every week, the price is changing.

I don't think so. We've seen cycles where things go down and go back up again. We'll have to see this over the next two quarters how it plays. The important thing is, in theory, in practice, in the way that our model works, is it's fair and square with the customer. If it reduces on a sustainable basis, our realization will mirror that.

Speaker 12

The product mix angle that you guys were referring to, is there any substantial product mix change which can?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Over quarters, we do have higher. You know, the product mix does change and that can impact. Of course, it'll not impact margins by 30%, right? You still have margin differences that accrue on account of that.

Speaker 12

Okay. The mill lining is the realization equal to the average that the company has or it's a higher priced product?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

It is a higher priced product, but it will not help you know, derive the impact of it on margin because we also have many other higher priced products, you know, compared to the average realization, right? It will be part of the overall mix. As we grow, we will also be selling other parts nearer to the average or lower than the average, right? It's a sum total of all those parts that we sell.

Speaker 12

Okay. These comments were helpful because the earlier comments made a little bit of confusion. Okay. Thank you very much.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Thank you.

Speaker 12

Thanks.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star and one on your phone. We have our next question from the line of Priyankar Biswas from Nomura. Please go ahead.

Priyankar Biswas
Research Analyst, Nomura

Congratulations, Kunal Shah and Sanjay Majmudar, on the great numbers. Of course, most of my questions are answered, so just one question from me. We are seeing that freight rates are softening, and I remember you had once told that, at the moment, the supplies to Canada and Brazil, the freight rate was kind of an issue. Now, how much does the freight rate, according to your calculations, need to fall from present levels for you to, let's say, resume shipments to Canada? How much-

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

There is no straight answer like that. No, I mean, it is today's freight rates are at least 2x, maybe 3x of in many lanes. Again, this is, you know, we do shipping from, you know, 100 miles to a few thousand miles, right? That's not a one answer. I mean, those shipping lanes where we sell to, it should come back. At some places it is 2x, some places it's 3, in some places it is still even 3.5 or 4 times our original rates, right? Or it's a more directional answer versus objective answer saying if it falls below 30, I get 20% more margin. I don't think there's a one-to-one correlation like that, Priyankar.

Priyankar Biswas
Research Analyst, Nomura

Your FY2023 or FY2024 does not include any contribution from Canada, right?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

At this point in time, no.

Priyankar Biswas
Research Analyst, Nomura

Let's say if freight costs were to hypothetically fall by 30%-40%, then is it possible that we could be starting to sell again to Canada?

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

More difficult to say this time, Priyankar. I think we'll share as things evolve or that there's a lot of volatility, lot of variables that we are looking at right now. Just, you know, answering one variable independent of others may not be a fair way, which is why the overall guiding 30,000 tons should be possible, right? One may come, something else may go, something else may change, right?

I don't think that would be a fair response to tell.

Priyankar Biswas
Research Analyst, Nomura

Okay, sir. That was all from my side.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Thank you.

Priyankar Biswas
Research Analyst, Nomura

Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. Participants are requested to press star and one to ask a question. Reminder to participants.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

I think most questions seem to have been answered. I think we can go for the closeout.

Sanjay Majmudar
Independent Director, AI Engineering Limited

Comments.

Kunal Shah
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs, AI Engineering Limited

Yeah, comments. Thank you all. As always, Sanjay and I remain available offline for any other, you know, questions that you need answered. We look forward to connecting after Diwali for our second quarter results. Have a good evening. Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using Chorus Call Conferencing Services. You may please disconnect your lines now. Thank you. Have a great evening.

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