Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Q4 FY23 earnings conference call of APAR Industries Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ambesh Tiwari from S-Ancial Technologies. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Good afternoon, everyone. This is Ambesh Tiwari from S-Ancial Technologies. I welcome you all to the Q4 hairman and Managing Director, Mr. Chaitanya Desai, Managing Director, and the CFO, Mr. Ramesh Iyer. I would now pass on the mic to Mr. Kushal Desai for the opening remarks. Thank you. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Ambesh. Good afternoon, everyone. I will start off by giving a quick overview of our performance and follow that up with a short industry update. We can get into more details on the segmental performance of our three major businesses, and post that, we will open up the floor to questions. During the Q4 of FY 23, the consolidated revenue for APAR came in at INR 4,089 crores, which is 36% higher than the previous year. We witnessed volume growth across all the three divisions, and in particular, export of conductors and cables, which were the major contributors to this overall growth. Exports grew by 85% year-on-year, contributing to 53% of the company's revenues for the quarter, compared to 39% a year ago.
The EBITDA for the quarter is up 146% to INR 445 crores at a margin of 10.9%. PAT came in at INR 243 crores, which is 194% higher than in the previous year. The PAT percentage is 5.9% versus 2.7% a year ago. If you look at a full year consolidated basis, the revenue came in at INR 14,352 crores, carrying a growth of 54% year-on-year. PAT at INR 638 crores is 148% higher than the previous year. Export for the full year contributed towards 49% of the total revenues, which is 97% higher than in the previous period.
This has been an all-time high, top line and bottom line for the company as well as for export revenues. Coming to the power sector, I would like to just update a few, a couple of major areas. The power generation in India grew at the fastest pace that it has in the last 3 decades with a jump of about 11.5%. This was led by actually the intense summer heat wave from the last summer and colder than usual winter in Northern India. There was also an economic recovery that led to a jump in electricity demand. This forced the cranking up of output from coal plants as well as solar farms, as there was this scrum, this scramble to actually avoid power cuts.
The output from plants running on fossil fuels grew by 11.2%, which is actually the quickest growth that has happened in the last three decades. There was a 12.4% surge in electricity production from coal, and that offset a decline that had happened from gas-fired plants, basically due to the spike in LNG prices. If you look at the total power supply during the last fiscal, it is at 1.5 trillion kilowatt hours, which is 8.4% higher than in the previous year. India still faced a power deficit of 6.69 billion units, and this is the widest deficit that it has had in the last six years. Even though power production was 8.4% higher, the deficit was still the widest in the last six years.
In the new fiscal that began last month, Indian power plants are expected to increase coal generate power generation from coal by about 8%. The acceleration of coal-fired output to address the spike in power demand highlights the challenges which are being faced by India as we try to wean off the usage of carbon and ensure energy security for our population. On the renewable side, India's solar capacity additions have grown by about 20% during the just ended fiscal year of FY23, boosting the renewable energy output to 33 billion units or approximately 22% of the total power being generated. The green energy output helped prevent 32.5 million tons of CO2 emission that would otherwise have been produced from coal. The share of renewables in power generation, excluding big hydro and nuclear power.
Essentially this is small hydel, solar and wind has increased to 11.8% compared to 10.8% in the previous year. The main increase has come from solar, which is 35% higher than in the previous year. I would now like to spend a few minutes to cover the business highlights. Our conductor business has revenues in Q4 FY twenty-three growing by 41% year-on-year to reach INR 2,121 crores with a volume growth of 46% in the quarter. The export revenue grew by 81% year-on-year, contributing towards 58% of the division's overall revenues. The premium products contributed to 45% of the revenue mix. EBITDA per metric ton post Forex adjustment came in at INR 58,000 a ton, which is a historic high.
As we have been mentioning earlier, the conductor division has seen a major transformation in its journey over the past decade, and the various investments which we have made in R&D have helped us to tap opportunities both in the domestic as well as the overseas markets. Looking at a 12-month picture, the conductor division revenues came in at INR 7,013 crores, which is up 67% year-on-year. Physical volumes of conductors manufactured is up 49%. The EBITDA per metric ton for the full year period came in at INR 44,114 per metric ton, which is 158% higher than in the previous year. Total order book that we have as of 31st March, stands at INR 5,124 crores for the conductor division.
Overall, the division has had an excellent quarter as well as the best 12 months in its history. The division's higher profitability can be attributed to a much higher share of premium products as well as a high share, a historic high for exports in the non-premium products. The market conditions in FY 2023 were the most favorable that we've seen during the post-COVID period, where customers paid a premium for reliability and quality, and also there were substantial freight gains as the container freight rationalized over the year. The losses from FY 2021 and 2022 due to freight were to a very large extent actually compensated in FY 2023.
Having said that, the competitive dynamics in this division have intensified, including from Chinese suppliers who have started pricing sharper and also are trying to find ways around the higher tax regimes that have been applied on them from the United States. We also are seeing an inventory adjustment taking place as customers reduce the higher level of inventories that they had built up to insulate against supply chain bottlenecks. This has resulted in a lower level of orders which have been coming in in the short term. Coming to the oil division, Q4 FY 2023 revenues came in at INR 1,179 crores, which is up 28% year-on-year. The volumes grew by 12% in the quarter, driven by a higher base oil price.
Exports contributed towards 45% by revenues and 47% by volume. EBITDA post-Forex adjustment came in at INR 3,697 per kl, which is in line with the guidance which we had given earlier. The lubricant revenue for the quarter was INR 231 crores with a total volume of 18,370 kl. During the 12-month period, oil revenues are up 31% to INR 4,656 crores. The volume grew 5% in the period. EBITDA post Forex came in at INR 4,781 per kl, and this was largely due to a much higher margin in the Q1 and then a revival of bringing margins back closer to normalcy in the February-March months.
Transformer oil, which accounts for about a third of the oil division, grew at a faster pace than the other categories. With the developments that are happening in the infrastructure space, we expect a steady demand to continue for transformer oil, both domestically as well as overseas. Towards the end of the year, the margin pressures which were there from the mismatch in cost versus selling prices have also eased. We should see better profitability and consistency in performance even on the lubricant side, which includes the industrial and automotive lubricants. Now, coming to our cable business. Our cable business revenues grew 38% in the Q4 to reach INR 943 crores. With a significant increase coming from our elastomeric cables as well as exports. Exports contributed towards 54% of sales in Q4 versus just 27% a year ago.
The elastomeric cable revenue grew by 20%. We see robust business continuing to come in the renewables energy space, especially from solar installations. The EBITDA post-Forex came in at INR 117 crores, which is 12.4% of revenues. This is a good 7% higher than what it was in the same period previous year. Looking at the 12-month picture, FY23 had cable revenues increase by 64% year-on-year. At INR 3,263 crores. The elastomeric and export business were the two main drivers, with export contributing towards 52% of the annual revenues of the division. The EBITDA for the year came in at 10.3% versus 5.3% for the previous 12 months.
Overall, we had a very strong FY 2023, and this has of course been the all-time high performance across all the 3 major divisions combined. Robust growth not only in the top line but also on the bottom line. We are quite optimistic about growth prospects of the company as the domestic and global macro environment continues to remain favorable with the thrust on infrastructure and renewables, which we expect will continue for the next few years. We also recognize that in FY 2024, the post-COVID demand and premium on quick and reliable delivery, as well as some of the strong tailwinds may taper to some extent, but we are overall quite positive about the prospects of business over the next 3-5 years.
I would also like to point out that we've updated our corporate presentation to make it current. It's already up on the website, and it carries a lot of detailed information much beyond what I was able to summarize earlier in the call. I would also request you all to go through the latest APAR ESG report, which was put up a couple of months ago in the sustainability section of our website, and that updates all the company-wide initiatives in this most important area. With this, I'd like to come to the end of my comments. I'd also like to thank all of you for joining this call and we can open up the floor to questions, please.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Reminder to the participants, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from the line of Garvit Goyal from Nvest Research. Please go ahead.
Hello. Am I audible?
Yes, we can hear you.
Okay. good evening, sir, and congratulations for a good set of numbers. My question is particularly on the conductor segment side. Like you mentioned in Q1 FY23 concall, you guided for EBITDA per ton somewhere around INR 17,000-INR 18,000. My question is what exactly the driving the change in EBITDA per ton? Like I think three quarters before you mentioned INR 17,000-INR 18,000 in this particular quarter, this quarter is around INR 55,000 per ton. This is a significant change. If it is a permanent change, like because of the structural changes you are mentioning product mix and geographical mix, then I think investor community should assume these kind of realizations going ahead, right?
I'm asking this because from here if realizations come down, then we will not be able to grow our EBITDA in particular segment, even if the volume grows from there.
There are multiple reasons for this increase in EBITDA. One of the key reason, and we have elaborated in our investor corporate presentation also, is the transformation shift that has happened in the conductor division over the last two, three years. Earlier it was largely the conventional conductors catering to the domestic market, where the margin used to be less because of competition intensity. Over the last two, three years, we have been executing more of premium conductors due to which our margin profile has changed considerably as compared to the earlier period. What has also happened in FY 23 is that not only we have been servicing the domestic market, but also opportunities are coming in the export market.
What we see in FY 23 is that not only our conventional conductors that caters to the export market has increased in margins, and also the premium conductors have also been having a higher margin. Overall put together, we have seen a high margin in FY 23. Also some of the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment has favored us. That has also helped us to increase the margin in this year.
My question is still not answered. Like, going ahead, whether these kind of margins or realizations are sustainable or not for this particular segment?
We have been increasing our guidance continuously over the last one year, we continue to keep a guidance of about INR 25,000 per metric ton EBITA at this stage also, plus some of the tailwinds that may come in the future, which as of now is difficult to predict because it depends on various macroeconomic and geopolitical situations. Even last quarter we have been guiding about INR 25,000 per metric ton. At this stage we feel that on a long-term basis, we expect the EBITA to continue at about INR 25,000 per metric ton. Any tailwinds that arise in future would be added on top of this margin.
You are saying this macroeconomic environment and part of the reason you mentioned is freight. Freight rates are coming down, so that will be reflected in your EBITA realization, right, in the coming quarters?
Yeah. Freight rates have been coming down. Accordingly we pass on the freight benefits also to the customers, unless there are some prices which are already locked in the pending orders. Largely we pass on the cost to our customers.
Okay. What about the volume growth in FY24 from the conductor and this particular oil segment, right, sir?
Can you repeat the question because the voice is a little muffled.
I was asking for the volume growth guidance, for.
No, no. In volumes, we expect approximately a 10% growth in volumes to 175,000-180,000 metric tons. Also, further to what Ramesh mentioned, that in FY 2023 there were a couple of very helpful tailwinds where, you know, we had taken freight hits in FY 2021 and 2022, which turned positive in FY 2023 wherever the freight rates had been fixed. Going forward, as you get into FY 2024, the rates obviously are more current and we don't expect any gain coming from there.
The second thing is that as, you know, supply chains were quite broken, leading up to FY23, customers in the United States and many of the export markets who actually bore the brunt of this were prepared to pay a premium to suppliers who had high quality and high reliability because their projects were already delayed. As a consequence, you know, the negotiations really, or the premium that you got on the price, was relatively easy to pull during FY23. Having supply chains having got normalized, obviously, there is more discussion, negotiation and pressure on prices and margins, which is more in line with the normal scenario.
What Ramesh also mentioned in here is that because of the premiumization of products, you will see a long-term change in the EBITA from INR 10,000-11,000 a ton, which is what we had for several years, increasing to the INR 25,000 plus of course, if there are any tailwinds which come in, but a steady state of INR 25,000 per metric ton.
Sir, you mentioned the supply chains getting normalized. Whether they have been normalized or they are going to be normalizing coming quarters?
The supply chains have all got normalized now. Today getting containers is not a problem, not only in India but anywhere in the world. There's enough capacity of liners. There is no congestion at ports, you know, which is lining up with hundreds of vessels, you know, wanting to berth. That whole thing has got cleaned up in the United States and in most ports around the world. Supply chains are now pretty much pretty much normal.
Okay. On the oil segment side, sir, what will be the volume growth guidance and the EBITA realization?
In the oil vertical, we are looking at about a 5% volume growth. Our guidance on EBITA, you know, it continues in the INR 5,000-6,000 per KL. Last year we came in at little over INR 4,700. With the situation having pretty much normalized in terms of unit margins, especially for the lubricant side of the business, our guidance is around INR 5,000-6,000 per KL with a 5% increase in production. Now if you ask for the third division, which is the cable division, there we are expecting about 25-30% growth and an EBITA between 10% and 12%.
Okay, thank you. One last question is, you mentioned in your opening remarks regarding FY 2024 tapering of kind of muted H1. Is it like to be a muted one going forward?
I couldn't hear your question. Could you repeat that, please?
Sorry.
There is a heavy disturbance coming from your line, sir. Request you to use the handset mode, please.
Yes. Hello? I'm audible, sir?
Yeah. This is, this is better. Yeah.
Okay. Okay. Sir, in your opening remarks you mentioned, like FY 2024 to taper off or kind of... Can we take, it is going to be a muted one?
Muted in the sense that, we expect both the oil division and the cable division to have a higher revenue and profitability, profit number. In the case of conductors, you will see a higher growth, but the profitability, you know, which averaged INR 44,000 for the year is something that's not easy to repeat. Because there were a number of favorable wins. Our guidance for that is INR 25,000+. You know, there could be some tailwinds that actually come in. That would be clear only once you start closing orders. You know, we are right at the beginning of the year, and there's still a lot of uncertainty that's, you know, that's running.
Understood, sir. Thank you very much, and all the best for the, you know, efforts.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pratiksha Daftari from Aequitas Investments. Please go ahead.
Good evening. Thank you for the opportunity. Rajat mentioned that, you know, rates are coming down and competition-
Pratiksha, your voice is quite feeble.
Hello. Can I order now?
Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.
Okay, I was saying that with the... You know, you mentioned that competition has intensified and fleet benefit would also probably not, you know, be sustainable in next year. What about, you know, raw material prices, with metal prices being, you know, in a range bound fashion, would that also impact our profitability going ahead?
you know, as we've always mentioned in the past, we don't really take a call on raw material prices. We just hedge. Premiums have gone up slightly. The MJP, which is one of the key benchmarks in terms of measuring premium, they were steady at around $80-90 a ton, which have now increased to about $120 a ton. That is being factored into the pricing of our products. We don't really see any major impact from the metal side because it's all back-to-back hedged.
Okay, got it. In terms of the order book that we mentioned about, I think INR 5,200 crores, how much would be premium products and how much would be exports? Just for context.
About, out of INR 5,000 crore, about 40% will be premium products.
Okay. Exports?
Exports out of 5,000 could be about 60%.
Okay. What I understand is that we had some share of railway orders and conductors. Do we see that, you know, plateauing, considering that the railway electrification target is nearly achieved or at least a good amount of work is done?
There are the following, you know, sort of phenomena that's happening, that there was program one was converting diesel to electricity in terms of running the locomotives. That program is at a very advanced stage. You'll only see about another year or so, in which that target will be met. However, what's happened is that the lines which have been set up, both contact and catenary lines...
are, not high capacity or high ampacity lines. As in, there's limitations in terms of the amount of current that it can carry to run Vande Bharat trains and high-speed trains at its full capacity.
Okay.
Therefore, there will be a certain level of re-conduiting that will come up if these trains are supposed to reach their full potential. I guess the program will get over and then there could be a gap, and then these re-conduiting will have to be done. You've got trains that can run at, you know, 160, 180 km and are running at only about 100 km an hour.
Okay. Understood. I know that you guided.
By the way, Apar has been ready with this from day one. We have the alloys, you know. The R&D was done several years ago, products were already ready and commercialized. At that point in time, Indian Railways didn't want to use the high ampacity product. As these tenders come up, we are already ready with the products.
Wonderful. That's, that's really nice to hear. Okay. in terms of, you know, order pipeline, if you could share some color on that. Hello?
Yes. Sorry, what was your question on?
Pipeline of orders.
Pipeline. Order pipeline for both cables and conductors.
For conductors, we said about INR 5,000 crores is the pending order book.
I was just mentioning the tenders that are open because we are seeing a lot of T&D orders that are getting announced for the EPC companies. Just wanted to understand what are the or how does the orders that are in process look like?
Yeah. Those are going on in a full-fledged way right now. They are in the process of placing orders on domestic parties such as ourselves, and those will be executed in this financial year. Next round of TBCB tenders are expected, which will help us to, you know, feed the supplies in the next financial year.
Okay. Okay. All right. One question on cables. Just update on the CapEx plan, and also what is the execution period of the order book?
The order book which has been spoken about is the order book for conductors.
Even cable.
Ha.
Cable, we have given an order book of about INR 1,200 crores. Should be just over a quarter's order books.
Okay. All right. The CapEx for cables?
Is the total CapEx that we are, you know, planning to invest is about INR 400-450 crores over the next 12-18 months, because some of these are now longer lead items, you know, for increasing capacity. Of that, the cable portion is approximately INR 260-270 crores.
Okay.
That includes actually, us acquiring a new greenfield site.
Right
... which is closer, close to where the current plants are located. Our plan on the cable side is to do this CapEx and invest a little bit ahead of the curve because, you know, for example, while talking to all the major customers that we have in the United States, their projection is that their execution of solar installations today is running at about 15 gigawatts per annum, and in 2 years' time they expect it to run at 30 gigawatts per annum. Also, if you see in India, every year the implementation of renewable energy has been growing. That's the reason why our plan is to invest the total CapEx of the company about INR 400 odd crore. Conductor division will be about INR 100 crore.
Cable will be about INR 260-275 crores. The oil division is much smaller at about INR 20-25 crores.
Okay. We had some capacity that was expected to be commissioned sometime around this quarter or next, right?
We have one phase of this which is getting commissioned in end of June, beginning of July. That capacity will be available from the Q3. There's a whole lot of new equipment that's been ordered, and continuously through the year you will see it coming in and getting installed. There is a the greenfield site of course has some amount of upfront investments in the acquisition of the land and getting the greenfield site ready. Once the initial site is ready, then it allows us to again modularly keep on expanding capacity on that site.
Okay. Understood. In terms of our interest cost, how do we look at that going ahead? Would that be in, you know, increasing in tandem with the volume growth?
Interest costs have almost peaked now in Q4, Q3.
Right.
Q4 . Depending on further increases in interest rate, it could further go up, but we feel that about Q4 numbers could be what we expect for the rest of the year, unless there are further increases. It will go up in line with the volume increases, but in terms of the rate, Q4 captures most of it.
Okay. All right. Congratulations for good set of numbers. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Charanjit Singh from DSP Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. Thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations on a good set of numbers. Sir, specifically, I wanted to touch on the export side, in terms of, you know, overall contribution we have seen rising to almost around 49% exports. If you can just, you know, give us more color in terms of the different geographies, like you touched about, you know, US specifically, and I think you were also working on the other geographies, maybe like Australia and all. How we can see these exports, can we see it going further up? What's the kind of, you know, growth on this high base we can see in the exports, overall opportunity? That's my first question.
Okay. On the export front, the growth is really being led basically by the addition of renewable energy. The largest market that we have currently is North America, is the United States. Cable sales into Europe has also started increasing, mostly going into, again, solar installations. We've seen a steady set of orders coming in from Australia, where we are seeing basically two areas. We're seeing solar and wind installations. Again, that's the renewable energy generation. Plus the metros that are being built in all the major Australian cities. Because we were 1 of 2 major suppliers into the Sydney Metro, we are getting an opportunity to also bid on metros that are being developed in all the other major Australian cities.
Besides this, there are opportunities that are coming up even in Latin America, countries like Colombia, Chile, et cetera. In Africa, we've been supplying products largely to Ethiopia, which has been, you know, either Asian, sorry, African Development Bank funded or other multilateral agencies funding, you know, electrical infrastructure there. These are the principal geographies where, you know, we are seeing the growth, and we expect that for the next 3, 4 years, the growth will continue from these geographies. There are on-and-off demand from many others, these are the 5, 6 major markets from where we see the business coming for both our conductors as well, as well as cables. In terms of the oil side of the business, the supply overseas is quite steady.
Any electrical installation needs a transformer, and these transformers are all oil-filled. you know, there's steady growth taking place, even on the transformer oil side.
Sir, you talked about, you know, this Chinese, you know, Now manufacturers also are, you know, looking at these markets. How do you see China opening up, you know, impacting and their supplies now getting back into the, you know, market? You also highlighted that they are trying to, you know, overcome some of the, you know, duties and all. Can that impact these export numbers to any extent?
I don't think it will affect necessarily the volume of export that we have because the market itself is expanding. There could be an influence on the unit pricing. There are two things the Chinese companies are generally doing. One is that they have been involved in M&A activity, buying out players located in favorable geographies and not changing the name of the company or anything and continuing to supply, you know, in those companies' names. They've also set up manufacturing or are looking at setting up manufacturing in other geographies, which are greenfield. Finally, some of the companies are setting up finishing facilities.
The conductor and various other parts of the cable will be coming in from China, and just the final step is done in a country like Vietnam or Korea, one of these which don't have any or do carry some favorable duty structures with respect to the United States, et cetera. However, when you do all of this, there is a cost increase that takes place. You're not just as competitive as manufacturing in China and exporting, but it saves them money relative to paying the higher US duties, for example. We see that the pricing may come under some amount of margins may come under some amount of pressure, but the volume itself is growing. I hope that answers your question.
Yes, sir. That's very helpful. Sir, if you can just also give the numbers for acceptances, how acceptances have moved?
Yes. Our interest-bearing acceptances is about INR 3,600 crores.
There are about letters of credit as well.
Is that the number you wanted?
Yes. How, how do you see now acceptances going forward? Any thoughts on-
No, this is usual creditors for us, for our acceptances. You know, we take the credit periods for the maximum period. You know, it will go up in line with the volume of the business and, rates of, the key raw materials.
Okay, sir. Just lastly from my side, if I can squeeze in another question. You have also talked about industries and corporate as one of the segment, which is almost around 17% of our revenue. This is having a very significant industries like railways, defense, shipping. If you can touch upon how these industry segments are operating, and do we see a significant uptick coming in these segments?
From the cable perspective, the railways will be a major segment going forward because as you can see, there is a very large amount of locomotives that are being ordered. In fact, Siemens has received an order for 1,200 locomotives to be delivered over 10 years. Similarly, there are all these Vande Bharat trains are going in, which consists of the locomotive and the bogies. It's a full integrated train. As a consequence, cables into the railways are definitely increasing. There is also CapEx that's happening in the industrial segment. You know, manufacturing plants coming up, et cetera. The good thing is that no matter what plant, you're agnostic to a manufacturing plant, you need cables to be able to deliver power to run, you know, the equipment, et cetera.
That's where we are seeing this, you know, the industrial side picking up. The railways. As far as defense is concerned, there is a steady increase taking place. It's nothing dramatic. You'll see a step up on the railway side because of the large locomotive and Vande Bharat expansions that are happening.
Got it, sir. Just one thing on Anushakti wire, you know, because wires is another segment where we had... Hello?
Yes.
Yeah. Just last question from my side, sir. just if you can... Hello?
Yes, I hear you.
Yeah. Just on Anushakti wire, sir, because we had started, you know, doing significant branding exercise, channel expansion, and a lot of team building on that side as we can see. If you can just touch upon that initiative. This is my last question. Yeah.
That is going very, very fine for us. You know, if you see, we have a slide on that that shows you how much progress we have done over the last one year in terms of increasing our channel expansion, distributor presence, active state presence, as well as various demos and refreshing me. It is progressing as per our internal estimates on the overall sales.
Essentially, we had, I mean, if you look at the channel, almost, a 70% growth, from last year to this year. We will see on an equal growth, from this year to the next year. We are adding almost, a little over INR 100 crores a year, you know, from FY23 to FY24 as far as that channel is concerned. It's basically the anchor products there is our Anushakti wires, which are the best in class. Along with that, you know, there are other, LT cables and.
3 core flat and a whole bunch of other products that go along with that through that distribution channel. That part of the business is growing. If you go to the corporate presentation that has been put up on the website, there is a slide that actually details, you know, dealer addition, retailer addition, etc., etc.
Great, sir. Thanks for taking my questions. That's all from my side.
Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of Koushik Mohan from Ashika Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity and congratulations for the great set of numbers. I just wanted to understand your order book and what is the total size of the order book currently, and for how many years is that order book is there for?
Conductors order book is about INR 5,000 crores, and typically expected about, you know, six to seven months, seven to eight months of execution. Cable, our order book, is INR 1,200 crores. This will be just over a quarters.
Okay. sir, I also wanted to understand another thing. What is your revenue guidance for the coming next three years?
We have given guidance on in the case of conductors, volume would be about 10-15%. In the case of oil, it would be 5% on volume, and cable, value would be about 25-30%.
Yes. Okay. sir, is this the net profits currently, which is around 4%, 4.5%, is this sustainable margin going forward?
We don't we guidance on the profit percentages because the values and the percentage will depend on the raw materials and the price movements. We give an EBITDA guidance, which has already been shared.
Sure. I can see that in the presentation. The presentation is really fantastic, sir. The last and final question, what is your conversions of cash flow operations to EBITDAs? Or EBITDAs to cash flow operations?
It's actually there in the cash flow statement, sir, you can see that. Probably the cash flow statement is where people will see that.
For the future year? Normally it is starting at a 50% on an average. I just wanted to understand in the coming years also, will it be the same?
Well, it should be in line with the sales growth that should happen unless if there are any abnormal changes in working capital, which we don't expect at the moment.
Okay. Sir, another CapEx of INR 450 crores is what you're speaking about.
Four hundred and four fifty.
INR 400, INR 450 crores. It is going to be in the duration of next 1 year to 18 months. Sir, this major CapEx of this one will be in the Cable segment. Is my understanding right?
About INR 260-275 crores will be in the Cable segment, over INR 100 crores in Conductors and around INR 20-25 crores in the Oil business.
Okay. Sir, what can be the incremental asset turns on this, cable side, only on the cable segment?
between 8-10 x.
8-10 x. Thanks, sir. Thanks for this and congratulations for the fantastic numbers. I expect same kind of presentations in the future.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mihir from Carnelian Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Yeah, hi. Thanks for giving the opportunity, and congratulations on a good set of numbers. Sir, largely wanted to understand, I mean, when we see the share of premium products, so that slide was 49% last time and has gone to 44% this time. It is the exports plus the freight benefit, which is driving the overall profitability on the Conductors side of the business. I mean, just wanted to understand, you know, I mean, given with now Chinese players coming into picture, how are you seeing the incremental orders getting priced in? The INR 5,000 crore order book that you are having, what could be the pricing of those, that order book?
When one should expect the normalization of margins to happen, do you expect that to immediately happen in Q1 , Q2, or do you expect that to be more back-ended in second half of the year? Also wanted to understand on the freight cost, I mean, you know, currently we have posted INR 58,000 kind of a profitability. What could be the element of freight cost benefit that one should consider in this number, which will not be there in the normalized number? Just wanted to understand that.
Yeah. You know, freight cost for us actually will depends on the execution of orders because we, the order book, you may have been a long pending order and the execution of that may take some of the execution may take more than 3 months, 6 months, or there could be some order orders in the pending order book that may get executed in FY 2024. It's very difficult to say an exact number of how much could be the freight, because there are various factors. There could be freight saving, there could be steel cost saving, etc., which could be included there. There could be some carry forward, from the pre-COVID, COVID times order that is coming into this execution.
It's very difficult to give a number that we can say that X amount of savings per metric ton is included in 58,000, which may or may not recur in future. That's why we are actually giving a guidance for the future profitability, which is, you know, 25,000 per metric ton, plus the tailwinds that can come in various form, which includes rate, which includes macro environment and Chinese competition intensity, etc.
Sure. Sure, sir. Just on the order booking that you're having, INR 5,000 crores of order book, I mean, just to understand it qualitatively, let's say while bidding new orders over the last three, four months, given the fact that Chinese competition is coming back, are we bidding, I mean, projects at comparatively lower margins than what we were bidding, let's say six months back?
You know, let me just comment on that. As far as the domestic market is concerned, of course, the Chinese don't have a role to play. Whereas, as the TBCB contracts or other tenders keep growing, there's been one major change in that. From FY 25 onwards, we will see benefits that a higher grade conductor is being used, which is an HTLS conductor, which is called AL 90, AL59. There is one change that's happening in that. It's like an in-between conductor. It's not HTLS, but it's an upgrade on just a normal conventional conductor. As far as the export markets are concerned, the US still continues to carry a higher duty on the Chinese products.
If the Chinese want to get product in, they cannot produce the product. They can't sell a Chinese-produced product. If it goes through any of these other channels, there is a bit of an increase in price. As they quote into projects in Europe or into Latin America and some of these other countries, there is no punitive tax, tariff or duty on that. With China having also got stabilized post, you know, all the COVID-related issues, et cetera, there is increased competition coming from these locations. In any case, the most profitable market that we had outside of India was the U.S. or is the U.S. market. But even there is competition coming in besides Chinese from, you know, other Chinese indirectly, but from other locations.
If you see, all other geographies, including Southeast Asia, et cetera, et cetera, the Middle East, these supply chains have all started. They are all now today in a normal state. They're pretty much equal to what it was in the pre-COVID period.
Sure. Sure, sir. The normalization.
There is a little bit of an intensity of competition. That's why our sense is that, you know, a long-term guidance that we can maintain is INR 25,000, you know, per ton basis. If some product mix changes or if we have anything, any favorable tailwinds, then it could be upwards of that.
Sure. Sure. Sir, just lastly, wanted to understand the realization difference, between exports and domestic on the conductor side. Because lastly, I think we produce this particular product domestically and, so sell it outside. What is the realization difference in exports versus domestic?
The way I've we had explained in some of the previous calls also is that most of the HTLS and OPGW and these higher-end products are sold in the domestic market. And we've moved as much as possible of conventional products into overseas markets, where you can end up getting, you know, INR 10,000, INR 12,000 a ton higher than in domestic. When you say INR 25,000 and looking at the order book, and, you know, our crystal ball glazing as we look, you know, into FY 2024, et cetera, it takes into account this mix. That the conventional products will go to a larger extent towards export and the premium products will be sold more in the domestic market.
Sure. Sure. That's it from my side. Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, sir, and congratulations on a very good set of numbers.
Thanks.
My first question is, you mentioned that you're seeing strong demand from new manufacturing capacity. Do you think the segment could be very high in FY 2024 and 2025, or do you think it'll remain minuscule in your entire revenue?
I didn't get the question exactly. Are you saying that will the demand remain strong just in FY 2024 and 2025?
No. My question is, you said that you are seeing strong demand from new manufacturing capacities, right? Which are being set up in this country.
Yes.
My question is, does this add materially to the top line in FY 2024 and FY 2025, or is it a very small part of the top line? Yes.
For the cables division, it does, it does have an, you know, a good incremental benefit. If you see, in terms of the mix that we have, we have 54% of it at the moment getting exported for cables. The elastomeric cables is a big section for us, which goes into all these special industries, including renewable, et cetera, et cetera. The domestic power cable side of the business has a piece which goes into industry for instrumentation cables as well as power cables. One of the projects which APAR has been involved in, besides building out its distribution network, is to engage with, you know, the top builders in the country, with the top MEP consultants.
These NEP consultants play, quite an important role in terms of the whole, cables going into industry. It is, you know, as time passes on, it will become a more and more significant part of the cable business revenues.
Understood. At some point of time, do you think that will increase the export of your high premium products can happen in future?
Absolutely.
Are we targeting in near term, or you think is this a slightly longer term thing?
You know, the way we've been selling our premium products in India, to a very large extent, we have been focused on delivering a complete turnkey solution. That's the real benefit. When you go into a utility and then you pitch to them end-to-end, right from the concept through delivery and the results that come, you know, out of the execution of the contract. We haven't climbed that, you know, that level of maturity in overseas markets, and we don't do turnkey contracts. We have started engaging with various EPC contractors on some of these premium products. The demand for the premium products in countries like the United States is lower than in India because India has got very severe right-of-way issues.
In some of these other geographies, they are just designing a larger line to begin with, you know. Using conventional products, but we've designed a line which can carry the current capacity and more. It's definitely an endeavor, but I don't see that in the FY24, you know, there won't be any meaningful contribution in FY24. There could be a higher input coming from it in 25, 26, et cetera, as we continue to engage with overseas customers.
Last question, sir. On your slide number 42 of corporate presentation, you have shared the details of the end user segment. where the renewables is 2.7%. You said that renewables is going to be main growth driver. Is this not true for the domestic right now? Is the renewables a very small portion as of now, it will grow very significantly over the next few years?
Yeah. The renewables 2.7 is for the total. If you see exports is 48.7%.
Right. Right. Right.
Exports will also include some proportion of renewables. It has some of the other also segments carry renewables, in the sense that you have EPC diversified, that 0.6 also has EPC players who are buying. This 2.7% are largely the developers themselves buying products from us. In the other category also, you will find some amount of renewables, but they are going through a distribution setup for rooftop solar and all these sort of products. Overall, the renewable side of it is pretty strong. On the export side, it forms a huge chunk of that 48.7%.
What would be a broad number, sir?
percent of that is coming from renewables.
Understood, sir. Understood. Thank you, sir. Thank you for the clarifications, and best of luck, sir. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Anwani from Prabhudas Lilladher. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Congratulations for the good set of numbers. My first question is on the conductors business. Obviously, pretty phenomenal performance this year with respect to EBITDA per ton. Just wanted to have more color, as you already highlighted, that you're factored in some Chinese competition and, you know, supply chains getting back to normal, and we are guiding for INR 25,000 per ton. Just wanted to understand, are we, you know, going to see some moderation in realization, anything of that sort? Any color if you would like to throw with respect to geographical mix changing? In your PPT, I can see you focused on penetrating into a higher growth market.
If you could just throw some more color on what kind of strategy you're going to focus on this side.
On the conductor, specifically on the conductor side, your question is in terms of, like, whether you see a margin compression and lower pricing. Is that your-?
Yeah. just wanted to understand what would be the sustainable EBITDA per ton, because the 40,000 plus this year also we did not expect it. This far exceeded the expectation.
We've already given that guidance that a sustainable base number for us over the next, you know, foreseeable future is 25,000 per ton.
Yes, sir. What we have set then, yeah?
There are, you know, the situation is changing on a daily basis, but in case there are any favorable tailwinds, et cetera, even today, we have a few dispatches that will happen on a fixed price on freight, you know. Therefore, there may be some freight gain taking place on historical contracts. We expect that, you know, it will normalize at around INR 25,000 per ton on the increased volume that we are talking about.
Right, sir. Anything on, sir, penetration on high growth market? Are we talking about more premium products or anything?
The high growth markets really for us, the way we are defining high growth markets for overseas markets is essentially those markets where a lot of renewable energy is moving in. That is clearly happening in the United States. I have mentioned numbers earlier in the call that what information we've gathered as recently as a couple of weeks ago from some of our top customers and prospective customers in the United States. We are expecting solar installations to increase from 15 gigawatts per year to 30 gigawatts per year in the next 2 years. Then sustain that for several years if they are going to reach the internal targets which have been set, you know, within that country.
Right, sir.
That's really one high-growth market. Australia is another market where we see steady execution over the next few years, both on transmission lines as well as on renewable energy generation sources. These markets, I think, as I, as we mentioned before, it's not gonna be a 1-year or 2-year play. It's going to take longer than that to build out this infrastructure which has been targeted by these countries. The good thing is that most of these countries are developed countries, the countries do have the balance sheet to be able to execute these type of projects. They're not depending on third-party aid, et cetera, like the African countries.
Sure. My second question is on, the premium, versus non-premium, if you could share on exports and domestic. Second thing is you mentioned that there is a INR 10,000-12,000 per ton difference, for conventional between domestic and export. If you could share, any difference, you know, if possible for you between premium and non-premium as well.
The premium part of conductor is largely for India and the non premium is, which call as the conventional conductor that goes for the exports market. In terms of the pricing difference, it's difficult to give that comparable benchmark.
Okay.
it's all varieties and it's all order based, depending on particular order. We won't be able to quantify the exact difference between the premium and non. If you look at supplying a conventional conductor in India versus versus the same conductor in overseas markets then that's the delta, almost, INR 10,000.
Sure.
The domestic market actually carries very low margins on conventional products. The buyers overseas, especially the ones that we are targeting, are far more discerning in terms of the quality and approval process.
Sure. My next question is on the cable side. You guided for 25-30% growth for FY 2024. Is it factoring in much higher growth on elastomeric? That is one. Second, what is the contribution of electro, elastomeric we are expecting in FY 2024 or maybe 1 or 2 years going forward? What is the contribution of railways in cables, which we are expecting?
The entire set of products that go to the Indian Railways is part of elastomeric cables. Our elastomeric cables business we expect it to grow by about 25-30%, FY 2024 versus FY 2023.
Sure, sir. My last question is on B2C contribution. How much was the B2C contribution through distribution network?
This year we have, about INR 175 crores. The comparable numbers the previous year was a little under INR 100 crores.
INR 100 crores.
Our target is to be able to grow by INR 150 crore-INR 175 crore between this year and next year.
Sure, sir. Elastomeric would be the highest margin business and within cables?
The elastomeric product category, yes. There are individual products, you know, which are niche products in each category that may actually also carry good margins. As a product category, elastomeric cables, because it includes cables that are going to defense, it includes cables that are going to railways, and it includes the cables that go into the solar wire, solar panel wiring as well as the windmill towers. It is the most profitable of the categories that we have.
Sure, sir. Thank you very much. All the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nemish Shah from Emkay Investment Managers Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for this opportunity and congratulations on very good set of numbers. Almost all of my questions are answered.
Sorry, sir, you are not clearly audible. I request you to please speak closer to the mic.
Yeah, am I audible?
yeah, slightly better.
Thanks for this opportunity and congratulations on good set of numbers. All of my questions are answered, but I just have one question now on the, again, on the profitability in the conductor side. The INR 25,000 per metric ton guidance that you've given on sustainable basis, I just want to understand what kind of assumption in terms of the export mix do we have for that guidance? Like, does it factor in the current export mix of 60% in the order book or slightly lower than that? If you could, for some directional sense also if you could.
It factors in about 50-55% of the revenues coming from export on a sustainable basis. That's why we said, you know, when you have things like product mix changing, geographic mix changing, you know, you could have, you know, some tailwinds coming in and improving that number. Otherwise, on a steady-state basis, this is what we plan. About 50-55% is what the export portion has been taken at.
Right. The balance 40-45, so will that completely be premium products or there will be some portion of the conventional product in the domestic mix?
It will be a mixed, yeah. It will be mix of premium products as well as the conventional products in. It has, if you see the balance, it has a decent quantity of premium products because it contains not only premium conductor products, but it also has all the copper-based products, which is your CPC wire, OPGW. Of course, OPGW is not copper-based, but it's fiber optic in there. We've introduced busbars as the volume of the railway conductors will taper off. Busbars, copper busbars have also been added into the product stream. We, we don't intend to go a very huge quantity of conventional, you know, just the ACSR conventional conductors. That's not part of that mix.
Understood. Yeah, that's it from my side. Thank you, and all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Himanshu Upadhyay from o3 Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. My first question was
We're not able to hear you. Your voice is cracking, Himanshu.
Yeah. Am I audible now?
Yes, yes.
My first question was on the competitive intensity, what you stated. Is that increased in domestic market also and the high-end products what we have been doing very well in last few years? Is the competitive intensity higher there?
The specific reference is not in the domestic market, but it's with respect to the export market. If you see the delta which we had in profitability, that's from a large portion of it was contributed from the export markets, you know, where we had not only an increase in volume, but also an increase in unit margin and realization. We are referring to the export side.
Okay. Next thing was, what is the situation on diesel prices? Because in last quarter they were falling and inventory write-offs were to be done. Have their prices stabilized and is the demand higher than the supply, which was not the case for diesel in last quarter? Some thoughts on that.
You are referring to our oil division?
Yeah. The raw material.
May I mention that, the pricing has stabilized, from February month onwards, and as we get into, FY 2024, at least the starting point seems reasonably stable.
Keeping question. The industrial volumes in the lubricant space fell by 9% in the quarter. Any specific reason what has come or if you know?
Largely due to pricing considerations where, you know, where the margins are a bit tight. All the commodity type or the lower margin products or industrially, you know, allowed that volume to fall. We kept our focus on the more strategic and long-term customers. If you see overall year-over-year, there is a growth that has happened.
Yeah, overall. Have you started winning orders in the renewable side in export markets and will we have significant revenue in FY twenty-four from that business?
Over 70% of the order book that we have on exports and what we are executing on exports is actually finding its way into the renewable energy segment.
No, this is for wiring, part I was asking.
Yeah.
We have started getting orders in that business also, for which we have taken the UL approvals and everything.
Yeah. The UL approvals are catering to, you know, the UL approval you can't supply into the renewable energy segment there. These are wires which are going in for panel wiring, for solar panel wiring, for electrical panel wiring, and for taking the output into substations.
Okay. Thank you.
Any electrical product in the U.S. requires a UL approval. There are also segments which are wires that are going into the housing segment, but that's not the house wires. They're the power cables which... the Low Tension cables which are used for evacuating or bringing power into a house. Not the internal wiring that's going into the house.
Thank you from my side. Best of luck for Q-
Thank you. We have the next question from the line of Pujan Shah from Congruence Advisers. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. My first question would be on the cable division. We have said, our order book is around INR 1,200 crores and which is going to executed in this quarter, specifically. For that trajectory, it would be around, let's suppose the same order book flows, for the year, it would be around INR 4,800. Currently our cable division revenue is around INR 3,300 also. Are we being conservative or are we being seeing some decline or this is the seasonal is a seasonal quarter being a good trajectory order book and then we?
I think what Ramesh meant is the order book will be executed in a 3-4 month sort of window over a quarter. Our guidance basically is we did around INR 3,300, INR 3,200 odd crores last year. We can see a 25-30% increase on that, you know, as a guidance that we are able to provide. Fundamentally, the execution will be in that INR 1,000 crores per quarter kind of range.
Okay, got it. Sir, we have been improved our EBITDA margin by 200 BPS above guidance for our cable division. Are we being seeing our export book growing, that's why? We are prominent in premium products and that's why we are seeing a bit growth on EBITDA margin?
I think it's a combination of both that, we continue to see, you know, overall growth in the export volume. We are also seeing a better mix of customers, you know, domestically, including, you know, as the retail and the distribution part of the business grows, that carries better margins than what you would supply to a utility. We are seeing growth on railways and some of these other areas also. Overall, it's just the product mix. There's also some benefits which will come on conversion costs. As the volumes keep growing, there are efficiencies of scale also that come in. It's not necessarily that you will see the EBITDA improving only because margin realization is improving, there's also economies of scale in manufacturing and things which kick in.
Okay, sir. My last question would be on, as you disclosed in the presentation for this specific industry, specific industry contributes 8.6%. In that, how much defense is contributing and how defense is evolving for our business, coming years?
I don't think we wanna get into all the very sub, you know, sort of, levels. The only point is that the railways will grow at a faster pace than than defense, because there's a huge activity happening on the railway side. Again, there is activity happening on the renewable energy side in India. If we see better pricing coming from the overseas market, then we'll push the product into the overseas market. One clear area where elastomeric cables will grow is in the wind segment as well as in the Indian Railways.
Okay, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vaibhav Badjatya from Honesty and Integrity Investment. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thanks for providing the opportunity. I have a few question on the oil division. Just wanted to understand fundamentally, you know, the transformer oil and white oil business. You know, transformer oil business is highly concentrated in terms of two, three players having big market share, but white oil has largely commoditized, while the raw material is mostly come from the same source. What is the difference that white oil, lot of small players have been able to commoditize that product but not the transformer oil. What is the reason for that?
I think you start off with your assumption, which is not accurate, that the raw material that goes into white oil and into transformer oil comes from the same source. You may have a refinery that produces grades for both the products, but they are different grades. The characteristics that raw material needs to have are vastly different between the two.
Okay.
Secondly, on the white oil side, there are two sets of products. You have one set of products which are technical grade products, which have much lower specification and standards. The other one is products which are pharmaceutical grade
The pharmaceutical grade products are also more difficult to manufacture. Really the commoditization is in the technical grade, white oil, or what they call technical grade white oils in terms of, you know, the pharmacopoeia standard.
Okay. Okay. The technical grade is used mostly in FMCG kind of. Is it that what you're saying?
Technical grade is not used only in FMC. Technical grade is used in a lot of industrial applications on, you know, in white oil. It's like knitting oils, and wherever you need non-staining, you know, master batches, you know, things like that. Those are relatively more commodity.
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. All right.
The lower end, the some of the hair oil companies in India, they including I don't want to name, but there are some very big names in here also that actually buy a relatively lower quality product.
All right. Got it.
That, that segment has got largely commoditized. In the case of transformer oil, especially on the power transformer side, there are relatively fewer players because it's a very, you know, very high specification in terms of what needs to be delivered.
Got it.
There's 2 sets of raw materials and 2 sets of, you know, specifications on products.
Got it. This is, you know, the question on China, particularly in our oil division itself. China, before COVID, China was aggressive everywhere. You know, every kind of business, there is a lot of cost competitiveness that China used to throw in terms of pricing the product and gaining market share. We have not seen that happening on the transformer oil side. Why it is the case that they are more domestically focused, they don't want to export these kind of product and create international competition?
We don't see Chinese competition in the oil business, period. We don't see Chinese competition in transformer oil, white oil, lubricants. Meaning, either in India or outside India. The whole oil industry in China is dominated by PetroChina, by the state oil companies. They see little benefit in carrying all these specialty grades, you know, outside of their country.
Correct.
The Chinese competition is more in terms of conductors outside of North America as well as in some of the cable categories.
Got it. Lastly, you know, this impact of, you know, electric vehicles that is going to be there both on the demand side for our product and the raw material side for our product. EVs will first adversely impact auto lubricant business. On the other hand, transmission, you know, distribution transformer oil business can offset that. On the raw material side, you know, if refined refineries are not going to be doing as much output, then over long term, how the base oil prices are going to behave? Any view that you might offer and how we are going to cope up in that?
you know, I don't have any view to offer as such because the adoption of electric vehicles, you know, the trajectory of that is still not clear. In India you're seeing traction happening largely in two-wheelers.
The total volume of two-wheelers and lubricants is not necessarily very large because it's only 900 ml or 1 liter goes into a particular motorcycle or a scooter. Scooter is even less. The main lubricant demand comes from trucks.
That's the largest segment, followed by agriculture, which is your tractors, harvesters, all those things. Next comes passenger car. The last is motorcycles
Right now adoption of motorcycles has been increasing. Overall lubricant sales, you know, is almost flat but hasn't fallen.
Mm-hmm. Got it. Got it.
Yeah.
lastly, you know, I think in 2021, we launched this new natural ester-based transformer oil. Any development on that? How much it has become as a percentage of the oil?
It's still in our development stage, in the sense that many utilities, there are about 6 utilities in India that have installed transformers with the ester oil in it. Our sense is it'll take a few years for getting the feedback. Also in all these, you know, as the ESG pressure starts, coming on these entities, the adoption will then increase once they've got confidence that the product works. Yeah. Vaibhav, I think there's a bunch of others who want to get into the queue.
Yes.
maybe
That's it from my side, yeah.
... allow someone else to... Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Sujal Chandaria from Girik Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hello, am I audible?
Yes.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. Congratulations on this set of numbers. I had a few questions around cable segment. In cable segment, are we facing similar increasing competitive intensity in export markets as in case of conductor segment?
There is some amount of, you know, as I said, basically as the supply chains are getting normalized, you know, customers are coming back. During the COVID period, people were ready to pay any price that was quoted because supplies were difficult, supply chains were broken, et cetera. As they normalize, it's natural that, you know, negotiations will start happening with a higher intensity than was during the COVID period. Having said that, the Chinese are Chinese companies are active on the cable side, including trying to export to the U.S. That export is happening through indirect means, as I explained earlier, that they've either taken over a company in some other geography. That doesn't allow them to have exactly the same competitive intensity as they would have if they were exporting from China directly.
Okay. Okay. Got it.
To gain some share they are quoting prices which are aggressive, et cetera, et cetera. You know, the cable market is very large, and it allows opportunity to go to, you know, different clients and different, meaning different geographies also.
Okay. Basically the volume growth in export market won't be a problem, but the margin could be impacted in that sense, right?
Yeah. The margins could be a little bit lower than in the previous periods, just simply because, simply because of, you know, the supply chain getting straight, getting smoothened out. We are going into newer and newer markets, and we are also from existing customers, we are hoping to get larger amount of business. Last year was the first year where the cable business really did a massive amount of export. We hit INR 1,400+ crores of export last year, which was the first year where it was such a big chunk of the revenues. Also, keep in mind that margins, as I mentioned earlier, is also a factor of your conversion cost, the efficiencies of scale that you have. As the business keeps scaling up, the conversion cost will also improve.
Okay. Just on the last question on this quarter margins, we made about 12.4% margins. It, I guess largely was because of the improved products which can associate the conversion cost. The premium portion which you are saying the unsustainable factor, would it count as meaningful in the margin terms for cable?
In the Q4 we had quite a lot of shipments that were taken by, you know, by customers where we supply a lot of specialized cables, like the defense spot. There were quite a few shipments that went into defense. There was more shipments that went to the Indian Railways, et cetera. That's how, you know, we had a higher percentage. I would really look at the full year, because that would, you know, you can have a quarter which can give a misleading number. When you look at a rolling four-month, sorry, a four-quarter period, it will give a better idea or an estimate. Overall, we see an improved EBITDA on 25- 30% increased volume in the cable business.
Okay, okay. Thank you. That's all myself.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Gopal from HDFC Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir, thanks to the entire team for great sets of result. I just want to understand, you know, the better profitability on the conductor business. Is the current domestic profitability trending towards a long-term, you know, profitability which we have guided for or we are at upper end or the lower end of this? How the export profitability is likely to behave in the times to come? Thanks.
Yeah. you know, the domestic profitability is not something that we will see some major changes on. It's really, the domestic profitability can move up and down based on a mix of product. You know, in case HTLS reduces, then it'll have an impact. Otherwise it's already in a reasonably steady state. Where you can see a certain fall in profitability is from some of these favorable things which we had on export.
Sure.
You know, the freight logistics, et cetera, these are all export phenomena. It is not really anything on the domestic side.
Okay. I can sense that. What we are seeing, like, with the rising volume and, you know, like, tremendous demand in export countries. Just wanted to sense, you know, from the directionally how do you foresee actually? Because, like, you know, guiding from 58,000 or 45,000 in the yearly basis to 25, you know, so it's very long-term. Just we wanted to know the trajectory, how do you foresee actually?
I mean, it's not gonna fall off like a step from, you know, straight down to 25, but in a, in a, in a few quarters it'll come down towards, you know, that level, which we think is a, is a good steady state base level.
Sure, sir. Any, you know, strategy on the consumer cable business? How, you know, how is it progressing? Any qualitative, you know, statement will help.
There's a slide in the pack which actually gives all the metrics, you know, on that. As we said earlier, you know, we have been working towards a game plan of increasing distributors, you know, electricians who are onboarded with the company, et cetera. That's going on as per the plan.
Got it. Thanks a lot.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pawan Nahar, an individua Please go ahead.
Thank you so much, Kushalbhai, Aparbhai, Kushalbhai, Chaitanyabhai and team Apar. Congratulations.
Thank you.
A few questions. One, we've done about INR 107 EPS in H2. As you said, the conductor profits would not fall off immediately, but in a few quarters it will get to that long-term trajectory. Can we expect that for the first half this run rate to be maintained broadly?
Actually, what will happen, Pawan, is that the P&L will be depending on the amounts of projects that we are executing. You know, all these are made to order business, and we normally look at, give the guidance and based on a 12-month number, because a quarter or a half year may not represent the current picture. You know, based on the guidance on the 12-month picture is how we need to work out. Since it's the beginning of the year, it's too early to predict the, how things would pan out during the, you know, half year 1 or half year 2.
Pawan's question is on the first half, and whether the first half, whether you can take Q4 and extrapolate it. I don't think that that's going to be the level. It is not poss-- You know, the Q4 was a very, very strong quarter, which is largely not replicable. The first half of this year, you know, should be comparable, or maybe even slightly better than the first half of last year. Because if you saw the third and Q4 of last year really pulled away in terms of, you know, the profitability and margin. it will, you know, we expect it to come off, the conductor margins to come offOver a couple of quarters, you know, there'll be a fall in Q1 and then again, further fall in Q2.
The new business which is getting signed on is not carrying those sort of outsized margins.
Yeah. Got it. No issues. I mean, basically what you are saying is FY 2024 will be a year of normalization for the long-term trend, right? I mean, it may still be a little better.
In cricket parlance, you know, we scored a triple century in the Q4 . you know, we may not score a triple century in FY24, but if you see the long-term trends of the products and all, they're all going in the right direction.
Basically it normalizes in FY 2024, and after that, next 3-5 years of strong growth for the firm as a whole.
Yeah, you'll see steady growth happening. You know, I gave an example of what the US is expecting from, you know, the major customers that we are in touch with. They are expecting to go from 15 gigawatt to 30 gigawatt. Even if some amount of competitive intensity increases and things, the market itself is going to grow double in size.
Exactly.
We are, you know. As time passes by, I think we'll be better entrenched with some of these clients.
Based on your guidance, I was just doing some back of the envelope math, and what it appears to me in FY 2024, cables will be approx 40% + of our net profit. Right? I mean, you may not, but I was just doing the math, so that was interesting. The third thing I wanted to ask you was, what is the volume growth we are speaking for conductors this year? Only 15 or it could be higher?
10-15.
No, 10-15%.
10-15%. Okay. If the volume of HTLS goes up, then, you know, the total volume in terms of tonnage will go down, the value will go up. About 10-15% in terms of number of metric tons processed.
Got it. All the best. Thank you so much. Wonderful.
Yeah. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was our last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Kushal Desai for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Yeah, thank you. I'd like to thank everyone for participating in our Q4 and FY 2023 earnings call. Thank you for your patience and your involvement and appreciation of the company's results. I'd just like to conclude by saying that we still see, you know, all the long-term growth metrics are in place. Profitability in the Q4 was a bit outsized. There will be some amount of normalization as we go into FY 2024 and 2025, but all the growth indices seem to be intact. We are looking forward to the next few years of continuing our trajectory of growth. Thank you very much.
Thank you. On behalf of APAR Industries Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.