Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Nitin Tiwari from PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. Thank you, and over to you, Mr. Tiwari.
Thanks, Manav. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. First of all, apologies for the slight delay that we just faced because there was a technical issue because of which we got disconnected. So apologies for that again. And on behalf of PhillipCapital, I welcome everyone to BPCL's fourth quarter and FY 2024 earnings call. We have the pleasure of having with us the senior management team of BPCL, led by the CMD of BPCL, Mr. G. Krishnakumar. Without much ado, I'll hand over the floor to the management for their opening remarks, which shall be followed by a Q&A session. Over to you, sir.
Yeah. Thank you, Nitin. Good morning. On behalf of BPCL team, I welcome you all to this post-neutral reverse concall. Before we begin, I would like to mention that some of the statements that we would make during this concall are based on our assessment of the matter, and we believe that these statements are reasonable. However, their nature involves a number of risks and uncertainties that may lead to different results. Since this is a quarterly result review, please restrict your questions to Q4 results. I now request our Chairman and Managing Director, Mr. G. Krishnakumar, who is leading the BPCL team for this call, to make his opening remarks. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Rahul. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the post-Q4 FY 2024 results concall. Thank you for joining us today. I hope you were able to go through our results for the quarter and the financial year gone by. Before taking you through the BPCL results, let me touch upon the macros. Consumption of petroleum products in India has shown a resilient growth in the year gone by with an overall growth of 4.8%. Major products such as petrol, diesel, and ATF have grown by 6.4%, 4.3%, and 11.8%, respectively. Brent prices for the crude oil averaged about $83 a bbl, which is about 13.6% lower than last year. The year was marked by production cuts by OPEC+, Saudi, and Russia, along with a breakout of the Israel-Hamas war, which drove price uncertainty.
Geopolitical tensions also caused disruptions in the Red Sea from November 2023, increasing global freight rates and voyage times for shippers. Global economies forecasted to marginally strengthen in this year, supported by economic resilience in key markets like the U.S. and China. However, escalating tensions and trade route disruptions present a downside risk on the demand side of growth. Our expectations are that global supply and demand will be relatively balanced, and the prices would be range-bound between $83-$87. The factors that could impact prices are largely related to unplanned production disruptions, a risk highlighted by escalating tensions in the Middle East. If you only look at India as a country amidst the fiscal challenges faced by major economies, India continues to be an oasis of growth and stability.
The FY 2024 real GDP growth has been estimated about 7.6% year-on-year, driven by growth in manufacturing and construction sectors and a robust common capital investment. In 2025, Indian economy is likely to grow by 6.2%-7.5% and continue to be the world's fastest-growing major economy. We expect petrol and diesel demand to grow in the near term. Growth in demand of petrol is expected to be around 5%, whereas diesel will be about 1.5%-2%. As far as energy transition is concerned, India structured right balance between its energy security and climate goals. A rapidly expanding economy will inevitably lead to a surge in energy demand. The current demand is about 618 million tons of oil, and it's expected to grow to about 2,200 million tons of oil equivalent by 2047. So there will be a growth in demand in BPCL's core and new businesses.
India has set a goal of attaining net-zero emissions by 2070. This will accelerate the adoption of green and low-carbon energy solutions, opening up significant economic opportunities for companies operating in the broader energy sector, including for BPCL. BPCL has an attractive set of opportunities across core as well as new growth areas like petchem, gas, and green energy. In the previous year, we launched Project Aspire, a five-year strategic framework. Our strategy is based on two fundamental pillars: that is, nurturing the core and investing in future big bets. We remain committed to our core business, which includes refining and marketing of petroleum products and the upstream. In addition, we are also focusing on big bets, which comprises petrochemicals, gas, green energy, non-fuel retail, and digital. The strategy aligns with a commitment to a Scope 1 and Scope 2 net-zero emissions by 2040.
We've been actively working towards implementing this strategy within the set timelines to fuel our next wave of growth and enable us to create long-term value for our shareholders. To begin with, on the refinery side, we plan to increase our capacities as we believe the fuel demand will continue to grow. Increased capacities will also cater to our diversification strategy into petchem. Accordingly, we are planning to expand our refining capacity to 45 million metric tons per annum by FY 2029, beginning with the brownfield expansion of Bina Refinery. On the marketing side, our marketing strategy continues to be focused on strengthening our marketing infrastructure, which includes augmenting our network of 22,000 outlets with an additional 4,000 new outlets by FY 2029. We will focus on driving profitable growth across Aviation, lube, LPG, and I&C segments, along with premiumization across the Board.
Our efforts towards premiumization will be centered around non-fuel retail, customer centricity, and digital initiatives. During the year, we have relaunched our premium petrol Speed with Mr. Neeraj Chopra as our brand ambassador. We announced two new petrochemical projects during the last year. We are happy to share that the licenses for all petchem units have been onboarded, and the preparation of process packages is in progress. In line with the government's focus to increase gas share in the Indian energy portfolio from 6% to 15%, we intend to increase our gas footprint by building optimal CGD infrastructure and acquiring high-opportunity geographic areas. We're also exploring enablers like diversification of sourcing, trading capabilities, storage facilities, and also looking at LNG regasification infrastructure, etc., to support our aspirations. We are happy to share that out of 27 GAs, 25 are in operation.
As far as upstream is concerned, BPCL's share of production from its investment in Russia and its stake in Lower Zakum Concession, Abu Dhabi, and Indian blocks was 2.63 million metric tons of oil during FY 2024. In our exploration block, Onshore 1 in Abu Dhabi, activities are progressing as per schedule, and the block is expected to move to the development phase shortly. The security situation in Mozambique has been improving progressively, and the project is gearing up for a restart. In the Madhanam block, where BPRL has 40% participating interest as non-operator, gas sales have increased from 13,000 SCMD to 53,000 SCMD, resulting in a reduction of gas flaring from 70,000 SCMD to 25,000 SCMD. Flaring in the block is expected to be put off in the coming weeks.
In FY 2024, we have impaired our investments in BPRL by INR 1,798 crore, primarily on account of BMC-30 concession in Brazil as the operator moved ahead with exclusive operation for the Wahoo development and the arbitral tribunal ruled in favor of the operator. We have challenged the arbitral award in the English High Court in London. As far as green energy is concerned, we aim to build 10 GW of renewable energy portfolio through organic and inorganic acquisition of operating assets by 2040. We are currently exploring various offers, and we'll shortly be able to zero in on some of them. We have strong competencies in the green hydrogen business given our experience in handling and storing hydrogen. We also have significant own demand in our refineries for hydrogen. We will produce 30 kt per annum of green hydrogen in our refineries by 2030 to meet 10% of our captive demand.
We'll also engage in pilots for green hydrogen fueled mobility and other applications. Biofuels is another major focus area for us. We'll operationalize our integrated 1G, 2G ethanol plant in the near term. We'll set up about 26 CBG plants in the near term. The proposal of setting up a biomethanation plant of 150 tons per day capacity at Kochi by converting biodegradable waste into CBG has been approved by the Government of Kerala. The construction is in progress, and we are intending to commission it by January 2025. We are also planning to set up a pilot SAF project. In the EV charging business, we plan to reach a total of about 7,000 charging stations by FY 2025. As of March 2024, we have added 2,445 new charging and battery swapping stations, taking a total to 3,135 EV charging stations.
Overall, we plan to invest about INR 1.7 lakh crore over a period of five years. Of this, INR 75,000 crore is earmarked for the refineries and petchem projects. We also plan to undertake strategic pipeline projects with an investment of about INR 8,000 crore, of which projects worth INR 5,000 crore have already been identified, and the approval process is in place. We will invest more than INR 20,000 crore for our marketing business, as mentioned earlier. We've also earmarked investments of INR 32,000 crore for upstream production, mainly in Mozambique and Brazil, depending on positive developments on ground. We will invest about INR 25,000 crore on gas business and another INR 10,000 crore on green energy business. All these investments will be subject to a positive business case and visibility of returns. As of March 2024, we are fairly comfortable and very low on debt, with a consolidated debt equity of about 0.6% as on 31/03/2024.
The debt equity at standalone gross borrowing levels is 0.25%, and at net borrowing level excluding investment is about 0.14%. We anticipate these investments not to put a strain on our balance sheet and the peak debt equity ratio at 1% on a standalone basis in the next five years, considering current margin levels. Now, going to our performance for the recent quarter and the overall financial year, we've achieved our highest-ever throughput for the refineries of 39.33 million metric tons per annum during the current year. Throughput for the quarter was 10.36 million metric tons. Our distillate yield has been 84.67% in this quarter, which is one of the highest among the Indian refineries. This quarter evidenced a significant fall in international product cracks as compared to the corresponding quarter during the previous year.
Despite this, our refineries recorded a GRM of $12.48 per bbl in the quarter and $14.14 per bbl in the financial year gone by, at a premium to Singapore's GRM. On the marketing side, our domestic market sales grew at 2.09% in the quarter to 13.18 million metric tons. We have continued to increase our market share in petrol and diesel retail segments among the oil companies, with a share of 29.6% and 29.8% in MS and HSD, respectively. In the retail business, we continue to generate the highest throughput for retail outlets amongst our peers, with a throughput of about 154 kl per month against the average PSU sales of 139 kl, driven by access to strategic markets and locations and strong network amongst highways.
We've commissioned about 800 new retail outlets this year and plan to set up about 1,300 outlets in the FY 2025, taking our total network to about 23,000+ outlets. In FY 2024, LPG customer base was expanded to INR 9.35 crore. This year, the LPG business saw a 3.4% growth with a market share of 27.4% in packed LPG. Aviation business achieved a growth of 9.4% in FY 2024. We also signed an MOU with Yamuna International Airport for ATF pipeline from Piyala to Jewar for the upcoming Noida International Airport. The industrial business unit reached a market share of 23% among the oil companies and achieved 7.2 million metric tons in sales volume this year, the highest-ever by this institutional business.
With the strong brand positioning of MAK, the lubricant business achieved a market share of 24% among the oil companies and the highest-ever sales volume of 421 TMT in the financial year 2024. We're also happy to share with you that we've commissioned new channel partners in Sri Lanka, first steps in the African continent in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania for our lubricants business. In line with our focus to expand non-fuel consumer retailing in rural markets, we have started baby steps in retailing stores at our fuel stations in 2022. Village-level women entrepreneurs called Urja Devis have also been associated with these outlets and professionally trained. They've started on-field activities and are improving our fuel sales as well as serviceability of LPG, diesel, lubricants, and non-fuel assortment being catered from the vast BPCL network. They service gram panchayats and villages with a population between 2,000-5,000.
We've opened about 190+ stores to date. To gain expertise in our own sourcing and to take supply chain nearer to the store, we have set up our own warehouse in Lucknow during Q3. Looking at the success of our own sourcing model in Lucknow, we plan to set up such additional facilities in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka. In the gas business, as I mentioned earlier, we have operationalized 25 of the 27 GAs with BPCL, except the recently acquired Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh GAs. BPCL, along with OIL as a consortium partner, has received the LOI for Arunachal Pradesh, making it our seventh JV in the gas business. We're happy to share we've added 435 CNG retail outlets in FY 2024, taking the total count to 2,034 stations, and plan to add another 300 outlets in the year 2025.
We also have supply security via long-term tie-ups for about 2.89 million metric tons per annum. Our supply agreement with QatarEnergy has also been renewed during the year for 20 years from 2028. As far as green energy is concerned, we have currently an installed capacity of 64 MW of RE, and a further 190 MW is under construction. BPCL's first green hydrogen plant of 5-MW electrolyzer capacity is being implemented at the Bina Refinery. A pilot green hydrogen refueling station project of 100 Nm3 per hour capacity in the mobility sector is under execution at CIAL Kochi, and is expected to be commissioned by January 2025 and is based on an electrolyzer indigenously developed with BARC. We have achieved about 11.7% ethanol blending for the financial year and are in line to meet government objectives of a 20% ethanol blending target.
Without further ado, let me guide you through the financial highlights. We have recorded our highest-ever net profit of INR 26,674 crores this financial year, a significant increase from the profit of about INR 1,870 crores in FY 2023. For Q4, the revenue from operations stood at INR 132,085 crores. The profit after tax stood at INR 4,224. Against a CapEx target of INR 10,000 crores for the financial year 2024, we have spent about INR 11,702 crores. We have now budgeted INR 16,400 crores for FY 2025. Our standalone net worth as on 31/03/2024 is INR 74,675 crores. The earnings per share for 2024 works out to INR 125.21. We are happy to have declared a final dividend of INR 21 per share pre-bonus, in addition to INR 21 per share already declared as interim dividend.
In order to reward our shareholders for their continued support, we have also proposed a bonus issuance of one bonus share for every existing share held subject to shareholder approval. Overall, we are complementing our high-class assets with our high operational excellence, prudent capital allocation, disciplined project execution, and delivering consistent shareholder returns. These conclude my comments, and we'll be happy to take your questions. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We have our first question from the line of Probal Sen from ICICI Securities.
Please go ahead.
Thank you. A very good morning to you, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. I'll just have a couple of questions. Thank you for the extremely descriptive rundown of the business outlook and everything else. On the refining front, sir, the performance of the Bina Refinery has been especially strong. Can we just get a broad sense of the product slate of this refinery, just in terms of what is the yield of diesel, petrol, ATF, some of the major products? If you can get any color. That was my first question.
Yeah. In respect of Bina, the product rates, for MS, it is 15.5%. Diesel is around 53%-54%. ATF is around 8%.
So, sir, just to we are trying to understand.
I mean, just the diesel I mean, yield itself is responsible for the clear outperformance of this refinery versus what should be I think, any refinery that is there in the country today? Anything you can sort of give us a flavor of why this refinery is doing so well?
Two major contributing factors for this Bina higher GRMs. One is the crude mix. If you will see, the majority of the crude is coming from Russian Urals side. High-sulfur crude we are processing in Bina as compared to any other refineries. And the second is the product rate. If you compare the HSD streams in Bina, it's much, much higher than compared to other refineries. And you know that diesel cracks were very good during the current financial year. So these two have helped, actually, Bina generating higher GRMs.
All right.
So just to get a broad sense in terms of overall numbers, was the percentage of Russian crude slightly lower in this quarter versus Q3? Or has it remained? I believe last quarter, actually, you've given a broad guidance that I think it was around 25%-30% of our overall slate. Was it similar this quarter?
If you see, for FY 2023/2024, our imported crude is around 36 MMT. Out of 36 MMT, around 39% we have procured from Russia. It is containing Urals, ESPO, CPC grades. We are expecting this year also similar grades still available from Russia. Then for 2024/2025 also, Russian crude can play a significant role in total throughput.
Understood, sir. And on the marketing front, sir, at these crude prices correct me if I'm wrong. We are not really making any significant margins from retail fuels.
So what is the thought process about looking at the price? Or at the moment, we are comfortable with our overall margin mix. How should we look at this?
So even earlier also, we said as long as crude prices are hovering at $80-$85 range, so we are comfortable even at this pricing. The margins may be short period of time. The margins may be squeezed for a short period of time. But as long as crude is hovering around $80-$85, we are reasonably we can generate the marketing margins.
Right. Right. Last question from my side, if I may. In terms of Mozambique, sir said that it could be sort of the first measure could be lifted and the project could be restarted. Is it reasonable to assume that restart will happen sometime over the next 12 months?
So in FY 2025, we can see a resumption of operations and or rather resumption of at least commissioning activity on the Mozambique asset?
So we are very probable, we are very hopeful that it will restart during this year. We are also very keen to see it and ensure it starts. But we are very hopeful this will start this year.
All right, sir. Thank you so much, sir. We appreciate the time taken.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen cut. Cut again. Ladies and gentlemen, to ensure that the management is able to take questions from all the participants, we will request you to strictly two questions per participant. We have our next question from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, yeah. Thanks for the opportunity.
On CapEx, could you spell out the target for FY 2025 and broadly how will the CapEx pan out over the next few years given that target of INR 1.5 lakh crore over five years?
Yeah. For FY 2024/2025, we are estimating our CapEx outlay will be around INR 15,000-INR 16,000 crore. Major amount will go around 4,200 will go to for refinery and petrochemicals projects. For marketing, we are going to allocate around INR 7,000 crore for various projects, mainly including the CGDs and our existing projects. For BPRL, we are planning to infuse around INR 2,000 crore-INR 2,500 crore of equity during this year. With this, the total CapEx outlay we are planning for 2024/2025 will be around INR 15,000 crore-INR 16,000 crore.
How will that scale up to, let's say, 2026/2027?
We are expecting 2027/2028, the scaling up will happen for Bina project.
Maybe even for next year also, the CapEx will be maybe around INR 16,000 crore-INR 20,000 crore range. The major CapEx spending will happen for these major projects will be in 2027/2028 onwards. The peak CapEx will happen in 2027/2028 onwards.
But I'm just wondering, that still would not add up to the INR 1.5 crore number, I think, what you have to That is only for this
No. Over a period of five years when we are planning, you know the projects, what we have announced are already major projects for petrochemicals. Two projects we have announced for INR 49,000 crore plus INR 5,000 crore. And the CGD in various licensing, we got around 52 CGD licensing areas where we have declared a CapEx outlay of INR 25,000 crore in the first five years. And over a period of the life, it will be around INR 45,000 crore.
These two are the already announced projects. There are small refinery projects, ongoing projects, and marketing-side ongoing projects. We are expecting at least 2 GW of renewable around INR 10,000 crore. With all this, actually, our CapEx outlay will be around INR 1.7 lakh for a period of maybe five years or 5.5 years. Otherwise, our CapEx outlay we have worked out, it will be around INR 1.7 lakh crore.
Sure. So this is all till FY 2028, right? I mean, all of this CapEx outlay?
2029. Starting from 2024/2025, five years to FY 2029. FY 2029.
Okay. Okay. Got it. Sure. Thank you. I'll come back in the queue then, yeah.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants in the conference, please limit your questions to strictly two per participant.
Should you have a follow-up question, we request you to rejoin the queue. We have our next question from the line of Mayank Maheshwari from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for doing the call. Two questions from my end. One, in terms of Kochi, can you just talk us through the update on the chemicals project?
Sorry to interrupt, Mayank. We have the management line disconnected. Please stay connected.
Sure.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have the management back with us. Thank you for patiently waiting. Mayank, please go ahead with the questions.
Yeah. Sorry. I think I'll just repeat the questions. First was, in terms of the petrochemical project at Kochi, can you just talk us of how has been the progress in terms of margin contribution this year and this quarter and any improvement in terms of the overall profitability of that project?
The second one was more related to renewables. You're talking about 10 GW target in terms of renewable capacity. Can you just walk us through how it will lower your operating costs at the refinery level once you have this 10 GW of capacity coming in in terms of renewables? How, sir?
Ladies and gentlemen, we have the management disconnected with us. We'll reconnect. Please stay connected. Ladies and gentlemen, we have the management back with us. Over to you, sir.
Yeah. The first question related to the petrochemicals plants at Kochi Refinery. Previous year, the operating capacity was 60%. We have operated all these plants. This year, it was at 70%. The total production previous year, it is 197.15 MT/20 MT, and current year, it is 232. There is significant increase of product operating capacity utilization.
The gross margin during this year from petrochemicals is around INR 560 crore as compared to INR 364 crore previous year. Second question regarding that renewable ambition, we have an ambition of around 10 GW over a period of next 15 years. By 2040, at least we want to create a 10 GW of renewable capacity. It will significantly help in cost efficiency in terms of the energy consumption at our refinery. Today, if you see the RE, the power generation, eco-energy power generation is coming around INR 2.6-INR 2.7. Even including the landing, it will be around INR 5 or INR 5.20. So with this, there will be a significant savings. We are not working out at this point of time. But when we create this particular portfolio of 10 GW renewables, it will have a significant impact on energy savings for our refinery.
Sir, just to follow up on that point, can you just tell us what is your total power requirements across the BPCL overall today across three refineries and everything else that you use power for?
We will share it separately. We will share it separately.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraint, we will restrict questions per participant to strictly one. We have our next question from the line of Sabri from Emkay Global. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, sir, and congratulations on a good set of numbers. Just one question regarding refining capacity. I mean, Bina expansion is the only one, right? Are you planning something else also other than that?
Yeah.
One thing we have declared about Bina expansion, and we are working towards some sort of capacity addition from the existing refineries where maybe respective refineries can take up additional 11.5 additional capacities we can create by deep bottlenecking of existing units. So we are working on it. That is the reason in the next couple of years, we want to take our refining capacity from the existing level to 45 MMT, including Bina. The main capacity expansion happens from Bina. In all other refineries, the capacity expansions will be maybe around 1.5 MMT-2 MMT range.
Okay. And this NRL 15-year deal, that is for how much volumes? Is it even the expansion is covered in that, or? I mean, any idea on that?
We have the first right of refusal for entire volume.
The commercial terms are not at final stage, but otherwise, we have the first right of refusal for the entire volumes.
Okay. So if you have any demand from the marketing side, NRL has to provide you first. Then only you can.
Yeah. Right, right.
Thank you so much, and all the best,
yeah. Thank you.
Thank you, sir. We have our next question from the line of Varatharaja n from Antique Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Just wanted to check on this Brazil thing, what exactly transpired and why we are writing off at this point in time. And is there a breach of contract there, or what was the reason behind that?
Yeah. We have one investment in BMC-30, one of the blocks in Brazil. In fact, FY 2021/2022, it went to a dispute with the operator.
So accordingly, we have filed our appeal. We have filed our appeal in the International Court of London. Last month, actually, unfortunately, we have not received any favorable order. The order has gone against Bharat Petroleum. So with that background, whatever value we had in our books, we have impaired. But however, yesterday is the last date for filing an appeal before the London High Court. Accordingly, we have filed an appeal. There are two disputes. One is on the data sharing by the operator. They have not provided sufficient data to take any commercial call on that. Second is when they have demanded the handling charges for crude, which was significantly higher as compared to the market rates. So that is the reason we have not participated in the ballot for development. But subsequently, it went to the dispute. They have declared an exclusive operation without our consent.
Accordingly, we went to the arbitration, and now the case is pending before the appellate authority in the London High Court.
Sure. And this write-off of INR 1,700 crores, out of the total investment in Brazil, how much does it constitute?
For this particular block, we had an investment of 120 million, roughly around INR 1,100 crore, our investment side. But in the total impairment, the major factor is BMC-30 only.
Fair enough, sir. Thanks a lot.
Thank you, sir. We have our next question from the line of S. Ramesh from Nirmal Bang Equities. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you very much. So if you can give us some direction in terms of how you see the standalone CGD ramp-up in terms of CNG stations, volumes, and capitalization of assets, that will give us some sense in terms of how the revenues will shape up.
When do you expect the CGD business to be visible in terms of the impact on your standalone top line and EBITDA?
Yeah. If you see the CGD network, in fact, already we have crossed the network CGD fuel stations. Around 2,000 stations we have crossed. Even this year also, we are planning around 450 CGD stations. The network expansion is happening in a rapid pace. For FY 2024/2025, we are allocating a capital outlay around INR 2,500 crore for further expansion. In terms of the market sale point of view, around 73 TMT we have sold through CGD network. The margins are good, and we are hoping the volumes will pick up further with the help of the network expansion and the stable prices of gas prices. It will help.
So these numbers you have said, are they all in the standalone GAs, or do they also include your CNG?
Both put together. Both put together. Both put together because I'm in our network. In our network means where we have our retail outlet, where we have the CNG stations. Some are within our GAs. Some are the geographical area licensing is with others. But whereas the marketing stations are with our retail outlets.
So if I may ask, in the CGD, can you give us the numbers separately for the 25 GAs you've started in terms of the number of customers, number of CGD?
We will provide. We will provide separately. We will provide separately breakup.
And the second thought is, if you're looking at your capital allocation wait just one minute. Just wait one minute. Just one.
Thank you.
We have our next participant from the line of Puneet from HSBC. Please go ahead. Mr. Puneet, are you there?
Yeah. Hi. Thank you so much. Sorry. Thank you so much. If you can talk about how much LNG or gas you are currently consuming and what is the peak volume consumption that you expect from your refineries?
Yeah. For 2023/2024, we have two refineries we are consuming mainly RLNG: around 400 TMT, 420 TMT for Kochi Refinery, around 300 TMT for Mumbai Refinery. Both put together, our consumption during this year is around 733 TMT.
Okay. And once Bina comes, then what should be the number?
Bina, at this point of time, we have not configured the base design is not configured for RLNG consumption. Only it's an optional flexible fuel.
At that point of time, after commissioning, we have to wait and see how much gas we can pump it for, either fuel or fuel.
And can we consume more at 733 in the existing refineries?
Existing refineries, we can go up to a little bit more based on the pricing. For example, if the naphtha prices are costlier than RLNG, then we can shift to our consumption some small quantity of naphtha. We can shift it to the RLNG. Or sometimes RLNG is costlier, then we shift it to a very small quantity. Beyond that, we can take more RLNG. It depends on the commercials for naphtha.
Understood. Yeah. Thank you so much.
Thank you, sir. We have our next question from the line of Somaiah V. from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity, sir. So first question is on the Russian crude.
So you said 39% of the total imports. So would it be possible to give at a refinery level Bina, Kochi, and Mumbai off the total 15 million tons roughly that you have indicated?
Generally, we don't share individual refinery breakup, but overall total imports by 13% we have consumed in FY 2023/24. So in terms of. I can give an indication. Bina will be highest in terms of the percentage. Kochi will be next, and the lowest percentage will be Mumbai Refinery.
Okay. Got it, sir. So second question, given that product cracks and the crude sourcing benefits are quite volatile, so what do we look at as a steady-state GRM when we are going for, I mean, INR 1.8 lakh crore of CapEx in the next four, five years? What is the kind of steady-state GRM you think this business can give us, which can focus on cash flows?
Very difficult to give any guidance for the GRM because entirely it depends on the international crack movements. So last two years was very good in terms of the refining margin side. But recently, in the last couple of months, the cracks have started becoming moderated. Even if you take a 10-year average crack, so it is very difficult to take a one-year average crack or two-year average crack. Even a 10-year average crack, even if you take our GRMs, maybe if it is in the range of $6-$8. So whatever our CapEx outlay when we have projected at INR 1.7 lakh crore, with the peak debt equity levels of around one, we are comfortable. That's broadly we are looking at it.
Okay, sir.
Bina Refinery expansion, when it is expected to come and when it is coming online, the existing ops will be taking, I mean, will be impacted, or how do we look at it?
So it's completely a new complex, petrochemical complex. So we are expecting FY 2028/2029, the units will be commissioned. That is what we are expecting. I don't think it will have any impact on the existing refining. Whatever throughput of products for Bina, it will continue. Additionally, it may give around 600 TMT-700 TMT of petroleum products beyond the petrochemicals.
Okay, sir.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Manikantha Garre from Franklin Templeton India. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for taking my question, sir. Sir, wanted to check in your opening remarks. You mentioned that you are interested in LNG infrastructure facilities also.
I was wondering, are you suggesting that along with the investment which you already got in Petronet LNG, you are looking to invest in some other terminal, some stake acquisition there, or do you want to set up a terminal on your own? Is that what you are suggesting there?
See, we are looking at opportunities, and we will evaluate it and take it as it comes. Hello?
So both greenfield and equity investment is what you're talking about?
Yes. Both options. All options, we are looking at it seriously. And if something comes our way, we will look at it. We are open to suggestions.
Right. And what would be your total gas consumption across all units that you have got? I hear you giving a number for both the refineries, but what would be your total gas consumption as of today?
Our total gas footprint will be around 1.5, 1.6 MMT, including the refinery consumption, CGD network, everything put together as of current levels. Total footprint. And we have long-term agreements of around 2.9. We have signed already gas agreements.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Yogesh Patil from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question, sir. Sir, if you could share the crude inventory gains and the product inventory gains numbers for this quarter and whole year, that would be helpful. And the second one is, if possible, can you share the percentage of Venezuelan crude you have processed during the quarter, and which refinery can process the Venezuelan crude?
Yeah. Venezuelan crude, actually, we have not processed anything for our refineries.
Secondly, in terms of the inventory gain losses, we have not calculated anything separately for crude inventory gain losses in the GRM because even earlier also, we have clarified that our average inventory will be less than 30 days for crude. In fact, most of the contract is the average pricing is monthly average. So then there won't be any significant inventory gain losses on account of inventory holding of crude. For marketing, already we have given in our handoff. For the full year, the marketing inventory losses are around INR 765 crore for the quarter, and for the full year, INR 707 crore for the full year losses, both.
Sir, you mean to say $12.5 per bbl GRM of this quarter doesn't include the inventory gains? Is that what you mean?
There won't be any inventory gain losses. Even if there is any gain losses, they are not significant.
We don't calculate separately. Once again, I'm clarifying because our average inventory is less than 30 days, whereas our pricing is average 30 days average. So it will not have any significant inventory gain losses in the GRMs.
Okay. And the last one, sir, in this quarter, in our reported GRM, we have seen a sharp fall in the premium over the Singapore GRM. So what would be the major reason? That's the one question. And for the period of FY 2025, how much premium over Singapore GRM one should build in for the projection?
So I cannot give any guidance how much we can build in the Singapore GRMs or what is the premium. We can clarify how the Indian refinery, actually, BPCL refineries' GRMs are more than the Singapore GRMs, mainly two regions. Our entire throughput processing, the Russian crude basket is compared with significantly higher.
And secondly, if you see the product portfolio, our diesel stream is bigger as compared to what is the basket in Singapore GRM. So these two are the main reasons. And future, very difficult to say how the cracks will move, how the percentage of crude, and what is the commercial terms available for Russian crude. Based on that, we can work out what would be the premium. Otherwise, on a standardized basis, very difficult to say how our GRMs, what premium we can work with the Singapore GRMs.
But sir, in the last few quarters, that premium has started falling. So that is my question. So in the recent quarter, quarter four, FY 2025.
It depends on the cracks. If you see the diesel cracks compared to Q3, Q4 of previous year, the current cracks are significantly lower.
So you may not see that much of premium compared to Singapore GRM with our refinery GRMs as compared to previous years. Since the cracks have come low, so maybe the premiums also will be lesser.
Thanks. Thanks a lot, sir.
Thanks a lot. Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Kirtan Mehta from BOB Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Kirtan, are you there? Kirtan, are you there? As we are unable to get to Kirtan, we will move on to the next question. We have our next question from the line of Roshni from Agus Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Can you hear? Hello?
Yes. We are able to hear you.
Yeah. Okay. So the Kochi Refinery was expected to go in maintenance in September, October. So is there anything similar planned for the Mumbai Refinery?
Yeah. We have certain units.
We are planning a shutdown in the month of July and August. But it's Q2, but the period, it's maybe around how many days? Around 30 days. 30 days.
Okay. But any specific sections which will be undergoing maintenance?
Please, please. Kochi CDU, please. Yeah. Kochi CDU is going, CDU2, which is a smaller capacity train. And MR, certain units, HGU and HCU, we are planning for shutdown.
Okay. And for the Mumbai one, which you're talking about in July, August?
Yeah. Mumbai. Mumbai only. That is all I'm saying. Mumbai.
Okay. Okay. Yeah. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Nitin Gandhi from Inoquest Advisors. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question.
Sir, with sanctions against Russia easing out and other things, global condition improving, do you expect the discount which we gave last year to comparatively be less and margins to be impacted?
No. Compared to last year, actually, last year, it was in an oversupply zone of Russian crude, but now it is not in an oversupply zone. The demand supply for Russian crudes, it is moderated. So we are expecting moderated discounts only, not a very aggressive discount for Russian oils.
How much is the average discount for last year?
It all depends on the consignment to consignment because generally, we procure on spot basis, just two months in advance. So every cargo, every trailer, every cargo wage, it varies. Earlier, we used to get last year maybe around $8-$10. Maybe now we can give a range of around $3-$4 or $3-$6 range.
So as compared to 39% of supply last year, are we expecting somewhere this time around 25% to be more than below?
As of date, we are foreseeing we will get the Russian supplies. But the only thing, most of the Russian supplies are not on term basis. It is on spot basis. So every two months, M- 2 only, we can plan it. If there is no new geopolitical tensions or there is no new issues, at least we are estimating the supplies will continue at the similar levels.
So for April till for the next two months, average, will we be having at least 25% supply, or it will be less than that?
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We can assume. We can assume.
Thank you, sir.
Thank you. We have our last question for today from the line of Vishnu Kumar from Avendus Spark.
Please go ahead.
Thanks for the time again, sir. Sir, a couple of months ago, we had a lot of articles saying that the Russian crude could not—I mean, in the high seas, a lot of ships were docking and could not enter the Indian shores. Any particular reason why we were not able to take it, and is that problem resolved?
Yeah. There will be problems, and there will be solutions. So it is not that it's moved right. But we are getting the supplies. It is not that we are stopping any supplies. Maybe sometimes there may be a delay of loading, and there may be a delay of unloading at transit times. But overall, if you see, the supplies are continuing.
So is that something to do with the payment-related problems or any other additional shipping-related sanctions that have come in?
Both. Both.
Because if you see, regularly, there will be some parties that are adding into the sanction list. So it creates some problem. So it is a continuous process. It is not that the sanction list is frozen for a particular period of time. So every three months or four months, some new entities are adding into the sanction list. So it creates a little bit of problems.
Understood, sir. Just one final question only. Heavy crude sourcing that we do outside of Russian crude, are the other grades that we are sourcing, either from the Middle East, are they at a premium to the normal benchmarks, at least that's something we see? So material delta over benchmark, let's say, a couple of years ago to now, is that we are seeing?
No. As of date, Russian oils are commercially comparatively better than any other grade.
So that is why our preference will be Russian grades at this point of time.
Understood, sir. Thank you.