Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited Q1 FY2026 earnings conference call hosted by Antique Stock Broking Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star and then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Varathar ajan from Antique Stock Broking Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Lizzi. Very good morning to everyone. I'd like to welcome all the participants and the BPCL Senior Management Team to this call. We have with us Mr. V.R.K. Gupta, Director Finance, Mr. Pankaj Kumar, ED Corporate Finance, Ms. Srividya Vinjamuri, ED Corporate Treasury, Mr. Chandra Neddy, GM Pricing and Insurance, and Mr. Balagiri, Senior Manager Finance. I'd like to hand over the call to Balagiri for the disclaimer and then opening remarks later.
Thank you, Mr. Varathar ajan . Good morning, everyone. On behalf of the BPCL team, I welcome you all to this post-Q1 results call. Before we begin, I would like to mention that some of the statements that we will be making during this call are based on our assessments of the matter, and we believe that these statements are reasonable. However, their nature involves a number of risks and uncertainties that may lead to different results. Since these are quarterly results reviews, please restrict your questions to the Q1 results. I now request our Director Finance, Mr. V.R.K. Gupta, who is leading the BPCL team for this call, to make his opening remarks. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the post-Q1 results call. Thank you for joining us today. I hope you are able to go through our results for the quarter. On the macro side, global growth prospects are strengthened with the IMF in July 2025 upgrading its 2025 forecast to 3% and in the year's FY 2025-2026. The outlook to 6.4% reflects resilient trade activity, robust domestic demand, and sustained reforms. While the recent August 2025 U.S. tariff measures introduced a degree of uncertainty, the underlying momentum in consumption and investments continues to support a positive medium-term outlook. RBI's retained GDP growth forecast at 6.5% for the current fiscal in its latest MPC meeting, citing strong domestic demand and economic resilience. Despite risks posed by recent U.S. tariffs, it expresses confidence that ongoing trade negotiations will help ease these pressures.
In Q1 FY20 25-2026, the rupee appreciated 1.2% quarter- on- quarter to 86.62 in Q4, driven by strong foreign inflow, a weaker USD, and easing geopolitical tensions. However, it now trades near historical lows amid U.S.-India tariff concerns and sustained FPI outflows. After weakening to $87.79 on August 5th, it recovered slightly on a softer USD ahead of U.S. reset talks. IEA forecasts global oil demand to increase by 2.5 million bbl per day between 2024 and 2030, with the demand expected to reach 105.6 million bbl per day by 2029, followed by a slight decline in 2030. Within this context, India is projected to be the largest contributor to demand growth, with its oil consumption rising by 1 million bbl per day at an average annual rate of around 2.8%, outpacing all other countries during this period.
Oil prices have remained volatile amid the recent tariff announcement and a series of OPEC+ production hikes. As per GAA's latest projections, the bandwidth is likely to be 67- 68 bbl in 2025. Domestic petroleum product demand grew in Q1 with petrol by 7.1%, diesel 2.6%, and ATF up by 3.9% as per PPAC. Comes to the performance in Q1 of FY 2025-2026. On the operation side, our refinery is processing 10.42 million metric tons of crude, achieving 118% of nameplate capacity. We have achieved a distillate yield of 84.96%, consistently above benchmarks, owing to our complex refinery configuration and strong operational efficiencies. Product crack spreads for gasoline was 9.88 dollars per bbl and for gas oil 15.81 dollars per bbl for Q1 during this period.
Accordingly, our refinery has recorded a GRM of $4.88 per bbl in the current quarter, as compared to $7.86 per bbl in Q1 of FY 2024-2025. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited has always been evaluating crude grades from across global geographies, selecting those that maximize value in line with refinery configuration and product demand. In the current environment of narrowing response for Russian crude, the company's agile sourcing strategy has enabled procurement of alternative grades from Brazil, the U.S., West Africa, and other regions, guided by economics and market conditions, and maintaining a competitive edge in crude selection. On the marketing side, our domestic market sale grew by 3.19% year-on-year during this quarter to 13.58 million metric tons. Further, as compared to Q4 of FY 2024-2025, we recorded a growth of 6.6% in MMT and 3.2% in HSD in Q1.
During the quarter, we commissioned 317 new retail outlets and 99 CNG stations, taking the total RO network to 23,958 and the CNG stations network to 2,607 stations. We aim to expand our RO network to 25,000 by the end of this current financial year. We maintain our leadership in throughput per RO at 153 KL per month for Q1 FY 2025-2026, outperforming the PSA average, driven by strategic market access and a strong highway presence. In a positive development from the OMCs, the government has announced INR 30,000 crore compensation towards the under-recovery and sale of domestic LPG, which is expected to be paid in different tranches. With further details highlighted on the payout, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited's total negative buffer before the impact of the sale compensation is INR 12,523 crore as of June FY 2025-2026. We have not accounted anything against this particular compensation announcement.
Through our industry-first digital initiative of a QR code-based payment mechanism at our RO field, which embodies our commitment to transparency and convenience, we have covered 15,000 + retail outlets with a daily 600,000 transactions valued at INR 30,030 crore per day. The AI-driven IRIS platform is an intelligent system that enables us to remotely manage retail outlet operations, safeguarding both quality and quantity at the outlet. IRIS is activated at 19,000 retail outlets across businesses. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited is advancing digital transformation using real-time data under several initiatives to streamline operations, reducing turnaround times, and enhancing customer experience. In line with the government's energy security agenda and efforts to reduce import dependence through biofuels, ethanol blending level of BPCL for Q1 FY 2025-2026 to date is 19.62%.
Under gas business, we have achieved a total sales volume of 338 TMT, 9% on crude quarter-on-quarter basis during the year for CNG, PNG, and bulk sales in our own GS. Further, through our retail channels, we have sold 269 TMT in Q1 FY 2025-2026. We also received our first cargo under the long-term supply agreement with ADNOC, linked to Henry Hub Index in Q1 FY 2025-2026, diversifying our long-term sourcing strategy beyond front-linked term contracts. We added 839 EV charging stations during Q1, taking total network to 7,402 EV charging stations. Updates on new projects, Bina Refinery and Petrochemical Expansion Project, have made steady progress, achieving overall progress of around 14% as against a schedule of 15.9%. We have incurred expenditure of approximately INR 800 crore, with overall commitment of INR 6,800 crore.
All technology licenses and consultants are onboarded, and process packages for all units received and front-end engineering design have been completed. Detailed engineering and procurement are underway, with tenders for critical equipment and EPC packages floated, and key long-term items such as ECU compressor and furnace packages have been awarded. Site enabling works are also nearing completion. Further, as a step towards digitization, we launched the DigiBiPrep, an industry-first digital platform for the project, enabling real-time progress monitoring and enhanced transparency. In our polypropylene project at Kochi, we have achieved a physical progress of 12.2% as against a schedule of 16%, with an expenditure of INR 260 crore and overall commitment of INR 400 crore. License selection and basic design engineering activities have been completed. Orders for six major long-lead items have been placed. The EPC tender, this is a major activity for the PP unit in general way.
The board has also recently approved the petrol residue fuel-aged catalytic cracking unit and associated facilities at Mumbai Refinery at a gross capital cost of INR 14,200 crore, with expected mechanical completion by May 2029. The project will replace the old CCU and FCC units at our Mumbai Refinery, which are almost 40 years old. This will help Mumbai Refinery achieve residue upgradation, increase transportation fuel production, provide flexibility of processing a higher proportion of high-sulfur crudes, and reduce environmental impact, thus also increasing overall yields of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited Group refineries. During the last year, the board has approved INR 6,100 crore toward pre-project activities, including land identification and acquisition, feasibility studies, and environmental assessment for Greenfield Refinery and Petrochemical Complex in Andhra Pradesh. Detailed feasibility study of the project is in progress. Land acquisition is also in progress.
On green energy, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited has awarded contracts for setting up 100 megawatts of wind farm projects, 50 megawatts each in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, as part of its strategy to transition to renewable energy and reduce reliance on imported fossil power. The LOAs have been issued to Sujalon Energy Limited and Integram Energy Limited, with completion and commissioning targeted within two years. As informed to you earlier, based on the approval in the previous quarters, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited has constituted joint venture New Energy, Green Energy with Simcor Green Hydrogen Private Limited for setting up renewable energy and green hydrogen assets. Two projects, ground-mounted solar project at Prayagraj and integrated green hydrogen plant and hydrogen refueling station in Kochi, are expected to be commissioned during the next two to three months. We have prioritized setting up 26 CBG plants, out of which 10 in direct investment.
The location has been identified and activities have commenced. Further, 16 CBG plants are proposed to be set up through our joint venture, Bharat GPS Bioenergy Private Limited, and the proposed JV with Praj Industries. Let me now guide you through the financial highlights of the quarter. The revenue from operations stood at INR 1,229,578 crore. The standalone profit after tax stood at INR 6,124 crore, and the consolidated profit after tax was INR 6,839 crore. Again, an estimated CapEx of INR 20,000 crore during this financial year, we have spent about INR 2,382 crore during Q1. Our standalone net worth as of June 30, 2025 is INR 87,377 crore. The earnings per share for the quarter is INR 14.33 per share. As of June 2025, the debt-to-equity at standalone gross borrowings leveraged 0.12. For our standalone gross borrowings is INR 10,709 crore as of June 30, 2025.
Again, at which we have current investments, including surplus funds in oil bonds of about INR 17,580 crore, placing us at a net surplus on a standalone basis. At group level, debt-to-equity is 0.44, with gross borrowings of INR 39,452 crore. Debt-to-equity ratio net of current investments at group level will be around 0.25. This concludes my comment and will be happy to take your questions now. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchstone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Gaurav Sain from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Very good morning, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Just to clarify the last bit that you just mentioned, on the group debt level, you said the group debt-to-equity ratio on growth is 0.4. What was the debt level at group level, sir? I didn't catch the number.
INR 39,452 crore at group level debt.
INR 39,452 crore. On a net level, it's around 0.25. That's what you said, sir?
Yeah, sir. We have surplus funds invested around INR 17,580 crore.
Understood. Okay, right. I had a few questions. First was, sir, you mentioned that due to the uneconomic nature of Russian crude, we have procured from other sources. Can you just quantify what the Russian crude % was in this quarter and also the inventory impact, if any, if you can quantify for this quarter in the GRM?
This quarter, Russian crude procured maybe around 34% for April, May, June quarters. In terms of inventory levels, we have kept a little bit more inventories in the month of March, April because of geopolitical issues and concerns. Our inventory levels are currently, as I said, March 2025, our total quantity crude oil and intrinsic is 2.9 mm t, whereas generally we keep around 2.3, 2.4 mmt . This quarter, March as well as June also, our inventory levels are around 2.9- 3 mmt levels of crude.
What does that translate to, sir, in terms of dollars per bbl in fact in this quarter of GRM?
Per bbl, in fact, we generally don't calculate. Generally, normal standard inventory levels are around 22%, 25% extra inventories were calculated.
Understood, sir. Understood. The other question I had, sir, was if we look at this quarter number, despite the decline in Q2, I'm talking about on a sequential basis versus Q4. Your GRMs have obviously declined quite sharply. While retail fuel margins were fairly strong, even then the marketing earnings seemed to be very, very robust in this quarter, given the inventory loss also that was there. Just wanted to understand, is the strength only from retail fuels or have other product margins also seen some strength in this quarter?
Mainly retail fuels, only mainly retail fuels. Only other products' marketing margins are at standard level, normally same levels. There is no big change in terms of marketing margin, but retail fuels definitely on account of low crude prices and the change in the RSPs, our margins are better.
Okay.
are not just thinking on pipelines or frankly the electric pumps.
Right, got it. The lower LPG losses would have... Sir, LPG on a per cylinder basis, what is the kind of loss you have seen last quarter and right now? If you can just let us know.
For the month of July, it's around INR 100 per cylinder. Going forward, July, August, and going forward, September, it's around INR 30.
What was it in Q1 now?
Q1 is around INR 150 per cylinder.
Right. Last question, if I can squeeze any, if you can give us the capex guidance for FY 2026 and FY 2027 broken up into sites.
FY 2026, our estimated capacity is INR 20,000 crore. Till June, we have spent around INR 2,300 crore. The progress is going on well. By the end of this year, we achieve this INR 20,000 crore. The phasing-wise, next year, we are expecting around INR 22,000- 25,000 crore. We are not from the numbers, but we are estimating around somewhere INR 22,000- 25,000 crore.
Right, sir. Thank you so much. I'll come back if I have more questions. Thanks so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Yash Nandwani from IIFL Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, the Bina Refinery reported GRM of only $4.5 per bbl in this quarter, which is notably lower than its usual trend of outperforming the Kochi Refinery. Is it just because of lower Russian crude and inventory losses, or are there any specific reasons for the same?
Major reason is our inventory buildup has happened during this month due to the geopolitical issues. There is an impact of high inventory carrying cost in the subsequent months processing. That is a major reason. Otherwise, Russian crude, in terms of the percentage of Russian crude production, there is no big change. Maybe every quarter-on-quarter, maybe 2%, 3% here and there it happens. Otherwise, similar trends. Discounted Russian crude discount compared to earlier quarters, it has come down to almost $1.5 level. Maybe these are the couple of reasons. Major impact is on account of inventory buildup, nothing else.
Okay, sir. Sir, with now crude prices now trending below $70 per bbl and OMC is also getting the compensation for LPG, are there any discussions underway regarding a cut in the autofuel prices?
No, at this point of time, there is no discussion because if you see, still the geopolitical tensions are still, it is uncertain. We don't know how the trend will change suddenly. We have to wait and see for some more time.
Okay, sir. With respect to the Mozambique asset, could you just walk us through the expected timeline for the restart?
We are expecting this quarter definitely there should be some positive news because whatever the revised project cost, we are requesting the Mozambique government to consider the revised project cost for allowing the expenditure. The audit work is going on. Maybe by the end of this month or next month, we are expecting certain positive news.
Okay, thanks a lot.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Yogesh Patil from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for giving me an opportunity, sir. Sir, what is your understanding on LPG compensation, which will be in 12 tranches? Is it at 12 months or some other time period? My second question is how much share of LPG compensation you will account in FY 2026 and FY 2027? If you would, some kind of clarity on this matter.
Whatever information available through PIB, OMC has got INR 13,000 crore grant. We are awaiting the operating modalities, how the compensation mechanism happens. We are awaiting any communication on the MoPNG, we have not received any communication, whether it is over a period of 12 months or a period of 24 months. Exactly, those details are not available at this point of time. Once we receive the details, then accordingly, we can share what is the impact of that. Otherwise, market share point of view, BPCL, we are expecting at least 25% to 26% since we have the market share. Our compensation should be within the same level of market share percentage. That is what we are expecting for BPCL.
Sir, my second question is again on the debt side, a sharp decline in the gross debt. Considering the EBITDA of this quarter, INR 9,600 crore, and the CapEx lineup of INR 20,000 crore, and the next year is a little bit higher, any particular net debt to EBITDA or debt to equity levels we are targeting for the next few years, considering our CapEx is on the rising mode?
We are not expecting any significant rise of debt-to-equity. Even when we are seeing the peak capex is going to happen in FY 2027-2028 and 2028-2029, our expected debt-to-equity will be around 1 because that is those years where your cash inflow is lesser than your cash outflow in terms of capex investments. Once the projects are commissioned, in subsequent years maybe the new cash flows will come. We are comfortable at 0.4, 0.5 level of debt-to-equity. Maybe subsequent to the project commissioning, we will come back to that 0.4, 0.5 level of debt. That is where actually we are comfortable.
The last one from my side.
This year and next year, this year and next year, since our CapEx is reasonably at INR 20,000 to 22,000 crore level, we are not foreseeing any good improvement in the debt-to-equity. Same levels of debt-to-equity we can maintain, 0.1, 0.2 levels.
The last one from my side, what was the Russian crude share during Q1? Sorry, I missed that part. Are we facing any issues on the financial payments related to Russian crude import?
At this point of time, since the prices are low, only below the threshold price, there is no issue in terms of the payment side. Our crude procurement from Russia is around 34% during the first quarter. Only slightly it has reduced in the last month, but we are expecting again the flows will come back at a normal level of 30% to 35%.
Is it expected that it will remain in the range of 30%- 35% for the remaining period of the FY 2020?
That is what we are expecting. As long as there are no new sanctions on Russian oil, our procurement strategy will be around 30%- 35% of Russian crude.
Thanks a lot, sir. This was really helpful.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, please limit to two questions for participants and rejoin the queue for the follow-up questions. The next question is from the line of Vivekanand from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thank you very much for the opportunity. I have two questions. The first one, the impairment of INR 1,773 crore, that has brought down your carrying value in BPRL to around INR 4,500 crore. Is that how one should infer it, or was there any other subsidiary or joint venture where there was an impairment? That is question one. The second question is on your gas SBU. Some of the other players in the gas space are consolidating their gas assets. If I look at your gas vertical, you have the Ersoil BGRL now being part of BPCL as an SBU, and then you have shareholding in several large CGD entities, some of which are also carrying out investments.
I just want to understand from your perspective, you are going to invest a lot of money in the gas vertical, but let's say to shine some spotlight on that and perhaps for investors to get more comfort on the value creation that is happening, what are the steps you are taking? We understand there are three listed entities, right? There is Petronet, there is IGL. These are, I mean, these are two prominent gas entities, but there are several others that are in varying stages, and perhaps investors view gas more positively than oil companies, so valuation is higher there. Is there any concerted effort for you to look at the gas vertical any differently than the current structure? Your broad thoughts there will help. Thank you.
Yeah. Rightly you said our focus in gas is significantly higher as compared to other fuel stations, and we have a very good amount of capital allocation for gas. Mainly, our first strategy is to complete our minimum work program in terms of completing the CNG stations and PNG connections and what our minimum kilometer length pipeline infrastructure we have to create. That is where our first focus is. In terms of certain JV investments, already certain companies already we have listed, and some of the couple of companies which reached a stage where we can look for listing of those particular JV companies. That is where actually initially we are thinking now one of the JV MNGL. We have given an imprintable approval for listing of this particular company and submitted our proposal to the ministry and the DIPAM. We are awaiting further.
In terms of consolidation, we are not at that particular stage at this point of time. We are to reach a particular scale, and we can look at it as a consolidation. We are also looking at it. There are some small JV companies. Instead of keeping the small JV companies, maybe consolidation is the right choice. We are working on it, but we have not concluded anything on it, but that exercise is going on.
Yeah.
Yeah. BPRL impairment, whatever impairment we have done in March 2025, only this quarter there is no further impairment. In our entire impairment, the major portion is BPRL only. Other JV company investments impairment is very small, maybe INR 10 crore, INR 15 crore, where certain JV companies we are in the process of liquidation. The majority portion of our impairment is mainly on account of BPRL.
Okay. The current state is that you still are quite confident of the carrying value of, sorry, INR 60 billion. I said wrongly initially. It was around INR 6,000 crore. You are confident of that value remaining intact given the continuous delays in Mozambique.
Right. Every year we do the testing, impairment testing. Whatever is required based on the circumstances and the particular reporting date, whatever additional impairment is required, every year we are providing. As of March 2025, as per the impairment working, that is what valued.
Okay, thank you very much and all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of S. Ramesh from Nirmal Bang Equities. Please go ahead.
Thank you and good morning and congratulations on your performance. I have two broad questions. One is in your consolidated accounts, the JV share of earnings have gone up. What has driven that? To look at the segment results, there is a huge increase in the profits. In fact, there's a turnaround from loss to profit of INR 819 crore in the E&P business. What is the reason for that? I have a few questions on the CNG business. If you can address these two thoughts, I'll go to the CNG business.
At this time, our group has given an incremental profit after tax of around INR 800 crore. Mainly, it is coming from Bharat PetroR esources, around INR 450 crore they have contributed in the group. The main profit after tax generation in BPRL is mainly on account of currency fluctuation. This particular quarter, the ruble against rupee has significantly appreciated, where some of our funds are parked to rubles only because we could not be in a position to take the money as the dividend moved to India due to some taxation issues and certain controls. That was the reason on account of ruble appreciation against dollar. This quarter, significant currency fluctuations have happened. Positively, BPRL has generated a good amount of profit. All other JV companies performed well.
Okay. On the CNG business, in terms of the standalone numbers you shared, can you give us a number of CNG stations operating in the standalone GAs? What was the number for the volume of CNG stations in the standalone stations for both quarter 2025 and first quarter 2025?
Yeah. Total CNG, total stations 2,464 of CNG stations in our network, which they are selling the CNG. The volumes, we have 339 TMT in our own GS, plus through our retail outlet, we are selling at 269. Around 600 TMT we have sold CNG from our own GS as well as through our retail outlet network.
Can you give the corresponding number for the standalone GAs in last year Q1 through Q4 FY25 just to understand the progress?
That we shared.
If you look at the numbers, there seems to be some fraction in terms of positive EBITDA. Are we right in assuming that on this kind of run rate, you're already achieving some profits in your results in your standalone numbers?
I'm not clear. Can you repeat?
No.
EBITDA contribution from these CNG GAs.
Yeah.
EBITDA generation is in the expected lines only. Once our infrastructure investments are completed, full volumes we are expecting. Otherwise, till date we are getting only every year maybe 120, 130 TMT of sale through our CNG network. Once that entire CNG commissioning happens, then a good amount of volumes will come. Otherwise, EBITDA margins are as expected lines only from the gases.
On the depreciation run rate, now you have increased about INR 200 crore this quarter. In terms of the capitalization on the CNG stations, what would be the total asset capitalization on the CNG side?
As on date, it will be around INR 7,900 crore in the entire gas business we have invested.
Okay, thank you very much and wish you all the best.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Hardik Solanki from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. I just want to know, as you said that we have processed 34% of the crude shared growth, but still, if I look at the highest sell for % of the total growth, it has gone 200 basis points down. Can you just explain what has dropped the highest sell for crude processing?
No, there is no specific reason because based on the product demand, we may take a little bit lower sell for grade. WTA grades are a little bit more on the consumption side. That is a 1% down in terms of high sell for consumption. Last quarter, it was 77%, whereas this quarter, it is 76%. It's a small change. quarter-on-quarter, it may vary around 1% or 2% here and there.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Siddhesh Jain from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. Sir, I wanted to know how the unit economics work at the charging stations and how much EBITDA level it will be contributing in FY 2027.
If you ask me in terms of financial contribution, very, very insignificant. Investments are around INR 250-INR 300 crore, our total capital outlay in terms of this infrastructure creation because we have achieved a good amount of subsidy from the Government of India also. The investment size is around INR 300 crore. We are not expecting a very big EBITDA from the EV charging station, but only it gives a convenience to the customer whoever is coming to our forecourt. Whatever fuels they want, including the charging station, it is available at the retail outlet. If you ask me the total, maybe we can expect INR 10 crore or INR 15 crore of EBITDA from EV charging stations.
Also, the unit economics center, is there something, how much?
Unit economics, if you ask me in terms of the number, today we are having a 2% capacity utilization. There is no profit generation from this particular thing now because we have to wait and see, because we have to create infrastructure first. Once the vehicle population goes up, maybe in the subsequent next two, three years onwards, maybe there may be some good volume. Otherwise, today it is only 2% of capacity utilization.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Vikash Jain from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, your debt number is clearly a great surprise. This is the lowest debt number we've seen in at least 15 years or so, or even more. I just wanted to understand this INR 13,000 crore kind of a move down. How part of it would be, of course, end of the year excise duty and other linked payments that you have to make in advance. Part of that will be because of that. Where is the others coming from? Of course, there's the cash profit that you have generated, but is there a release from working capital, which is perhaps a bit temporary or something like that? Where is this INR 13,000 crore decline coming from? Broad breakups, if any?
If we compare from March 2025 and June 2025, there are two major changes. One is definitely excise duty because at the end of the year, we have to pay in the month of March, whereas during the year, you have a seven days' time, or maybe in the subsequent month, you can pay. That is around INR 7,800 crore. Secondly, due to the low prices of inventory, even similar volumes we are maintaining, the value of the inventory is coming down around INR 7,000 crore. It really is a working capital to the return. These two are the major reasons. Otherwise, other current liabilities, financial liabilities, more or less, it will be in the same range.
As long, and second, by the end of the year, for example, if we receive that LPG subsidy, maybe in the next one or two months, definitely it helps a lot in terms of cash flow. We are not expecting any big way debt equity levels will go. As long as crude is around $65- $70 range.
I'm not sure if you repeated that. What is your estimate of the INR 30,000 crore that you would receive?
25 to 26 in between. Exactly, we don't have the number now. Once the communication from the ministry, then we'll come to know. Otherwise, as per our market.
INR 7,500-INR 8,000 crores, basically.
Maybe INR 7,500-INR 8,000 crore in the range.
Just one thing. For other income, it is uncharacteristically high for a first quarter number. Is there anything that is happening here? Typically, the other quarters are higher.
Mainly surplus funds. We have a good amount of surplus funds and have made fixed deposit one year, fixed deposit, which is at 7.5% at 7.8% level. During the month, we have made that investment. That is the reason. Mainly interest income only. All other income.
There's no real one-off or anything like that.
No, nothing. This is only for.
The small forex gain, but that's very small, will be part of other income now?
No, no, no. We don't have any foreign currency borrowings. Only whatever is crude payment-related.
Okay. Understood. Should I say that for CapEx, FY 2026, you said is INR 20,000. FY 2027, you said would be slightly higher, but FY 2028 would be the biggest number in terms of CapEx.
Yeah. We are expecting around INR 30,000 crore for FY 2028, INR 34,000 crore for FY 2028, and for 2028-2029, around INR 35,000 crore. That is based on the current approved projects. In case any new projects are added, the CapEx numbers will vary. Otherwise, based on the current approved projects, for 2026-2027, we are expecting around INR 22,000 to 25,000 crore. For 2027-2028, we are expecting INR 35,000 crore, and for 2028-2029 also in the range of INR 35,000 crore.
Okay. Thank you so much, sir. Those are my questions. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mayank Maheshwari from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the call. A few questions more from a marketing perspective on fuels. One, in terms of diesel, especially on retail diesel, can you just tell us how your market share has trended on retail diesel? The second question was in terms of the industrial side. Obviously, I think there is a reasonable amount of competition. Can you just say what's going on subjectively from a competition perspective? How do the recent regulatory changes on ATF pipelines impact you from a market share perspective on jet fuel? Thank you.
One is HSD retail side. Our market share during this quarter is 29.59% compared to previous quarter, slightly reduction side. HSD direct, yes, we are facing a good competition from the private sector. Private sector has given a good amount of discounts in the market, but we are not participating in the discount game. A little bit we are behind in terms of diesel growth in direct segment. However, it's only temporary. Once the margins are settled, this discount game will not be there. We are expecting our market share will come back even in the direct business also. In terms of aviation, our market share during this quarter is 26.51%. Last quarter, it was 21.78%, but we have come back and we have taken back our own volumes from other customers, and we are back to 26.51%.
Sir, does this change in the regular opening of the pipeline network impact you in terms of competition at all on ATF?
Nothing. We are not expecting any big change in terms of any policy in terms of the pipeline. Whatever pipelines we have, captive pipelines we have, even if there is any change in the policy, we are objecting because captive pipelines should be with the respective refineries only. Let us see how it happens.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Kishan Mundhra from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Just one question from my end. Sir, whenever these geopolitical tensions settle down and whenever you move back to daily fuel price revisions on petrol and diesel, sir, what is your estimate of where would the normalized margins, what would the normalized margins look like on petrol and diesel?
Today, I cannot say when the daily pricing is going to happen and other things. Everything depends on the crude prices, how the crude prices move. What we can see is that as long as crude prices are at $65- $70 range, our margins will be better. There is no standardized margin for MSN electricity in this scenario. It all depends on the crude prices. If the crude prices are on the lower side, since our pricing RSPs are not changed, our margins will be better. If crude prices go beyond $70 or $75 level once it reaches, then a little bit of pressure it creates on the margins. What would be the standard margins? We cannot comment at this point of time because we are not in a daily pricing mode.
Not now, sir, but let's say theoretically in three to six months down the line, crude prices are at $60 and you move back to a situation where there is a daily pricing which is possible. In that scenario, can you guide us to what could the margins look like?
We could be.
Should it be INR 5, INR 4, INR 6 a liter?
No, with these large CapEx programs in hand, if the standard margins are around INR 2.5 or INR 3 level, also we are comfortable.
This INR 2.5 to INR 3, you say this is after deducting freight transportation?
All expenses, after expenses, everything. This is a net retention.
Understood. Understood. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Soma V from Avendus. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity, sir. My first question is on LPG under recovery.
Sir, sorry to interrupt, but we cannot hear you. I request you to use hands if you are asking a question.
Yeah, I hope I'm audible now.
Yes.
Yeah. Sir, my first question is on LPG under recovery. When we book LPG under recovery, does this also include the normal marketing margins that we would have made? For instance, if we say INR 100 will be under recovery per cylinder, does this include the normal margins that we should have made or just that INR 100 will be a break-even requirement and this normal margin is not included in that?
No, when we calculate any under recovery, that is beyond our margins. Our margins we calculate on the margins plus whatever is actual under recovery, actual under recovery. Whatever money it comes back, that is beyond our margins.
Let's say we get a INR 100 high, that will compensate or bring us back to the normal level of margins to any LPG?
Right, right, right. Yeah. It's under recovery, not at.
Yep.
Yes, it's under recovery, including the margins.
Okay, sir. Understood. The second question is on the capex. If you could give some breakup in terms of segments for this INR 20,000 crores this year and the INR 20,000-INR 25,000 crores next year, and also an update on the Bina Refinery and Petrochemical Expansion project.
Yeah. Currently, INR 20,000 crore, approximately around INR 6,500 crore, we are going to spend in refinery plus petrochemical projects. On the marketing side, around pipeline INR 1,400 crore, and RO expansions including the CNG network, around INR 4,000 crore. Out of CBG, we are going to spend around INR 1,385 crore. For BPRL this year, we are expecting around INR 2,500 crore of equity investments. For LPG, including the cylinders and marketing infrastructure, we are creating around INR 4,000 crore. This is a broader breakup for INR 20,000 crore for 2025-2026. For 2026-2027, similar level, refinery plus petrochemical, around INR 11,000 crore we are going to spend. The BPRL equity requirement for next year will be around INR 2,500 crore. For CBG, we are going to spend around INR 2,200 crore.
Marketing initiatives, including the RO expansion and whatever marketing infrastructure-related depots and installation, will be around INR 6,000 crore. Overall, next year, we are expecting around INR 22,000- INR 25,000 crore range.
Helpful, sir. This refinery and petrol, which we are saying around INR 6,500 crore, this will predominantly be for Bina and also Bina progress, I mean, in terms of completion and the CapEx, let's see where we are so far and how much we have completed.
Yeah, Bina, 14.2% we have achieved, and the CapEx number.
1,008.
We have INR 600 crore PP we are going to spend by the end of this year, and for Bina, we are going to spend around INR 4,600 crore cumulative by the end of this year.
Understood, sir. One clarification, in the opening remarks, you did mention about an upgradation CapEx in Mumbai Refinery. Could you help us, I mean, any timeline around that, when the project is expected to start, and some final details on that?
Yeah. Our board has approved this project during this quarter. The mechanical completion by May 2029, this is the expected schedule timeline. This is having two parts. One is replacement of existing FCC and CCU units with an upgraded version of petrol RFCCU. It will have residual upgradation also. The total capital outlay will be around INR 14,200 crore on a graph. We are expecting May 2029 is the scheduled date.
Work on this will start, which is?
Work has started already. We are in the process of appointing the PMC and are working on the licensor selection. Initial work has started.
Got it, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Achal Shah from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Sir, am I audible?
Yeah.
Sir, I wanted to understand a bit about the lubricant business. Can you give a sense of the lubricant volumes, EBITDA, EBITDA margin, and market share for FY 25? Also, I wanted to understand what is the volume uptick we saw after the 2023 mass promotional scheme. How have volumes increased after that?
EBITDA numbers, in the product line, we cannot share EBITDA numbers. Volume-wise, this April to June, we have a total volume of 78.7 TMTs we have sold other than retail. Last year, it was 83.4%. The lube volumes have declined by 6%. Mainly, there are certain technical issues in our lube oil blending plant. That was the reason the production is a little bit lower as compared to the planned production. The current quarter, it is 78.7 TMT lubricants.
Sir, would it be possible to share the FY 2024 and 2025 number volume at least?
Yeah, we will share it.
Yeah, we’ll share.
Sir, my second question is on, as you mentioned, that BPCL is doing like the best throughput for outlets, OMC, but we are lagging the private retailers on a throughput per outlet basis. Is it because of the high outlets count which OMCs have compared to the private players? Is there any other way to look at it if they have more share of highway outlets? Can you make sense of this data? This quarter, they are getting good volumes mainly because of the high margins. They are in a position to pass on a little bit more discounts to the customers. That discount game, we are not participating in the discount games, right? In some of the markets, we have extended certain schemes, but not in all the markets. Secondly, their concentration is mainly in certain areas. Their concentration is not there in the rural segment.
That may be one reason their RO volumes are comparatively better. Since we are a large organization, presence across India, we have every market, we have our presence, including the rural segment, ABCD market, highway market, everywhere we have our presence. It cannot be comparable, the RO volumes with private sector and PHU. What we can compare is that within the PHU, so where do BPCL stand?
Understood. Sir, just one last question is on the OMC trade margin. On a per kg or per SCM basis, what is the trade margin which OMC outlet charges to the CGDs like IGL, MGL when they are supplying gas on our, like, on BPCL retail outlet?
That will be around INR 2 per kg only. The retailer margin is around INR 2 per kg only, I'm sorry.
Where we are, where we are selling CGD in their GS, the retailer margin is around INR 2.
Sir, like that will be the margin which BPCL is earning or?
Retailer.
Whoever is retailing, the retailer will have. Like BPCL, if we are retailing in our forecourt, then we will get that margin.
Understood. Thanks, sir. Thanks for the story.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sucrit Patil from Eyesight Fintrade Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon to the Bharat Petroleum team. I have a specific question for Mr. Pankaj Kumar. Is Mr. Pankaj Kumar online?
Yes, sir. I'm there.
Yes, sir.
Welcome, sir. My name is Sucrit Patil. I just want to understand a forward-looking question in regards to capital allocation. As BPCL is expanding its footprint in EV charging, biofuels, and hydrogen, how is Corporate Finance evolving its capital deployment philosophy to support these new verticals? Is there a shift towards the platform-based valuation models or any JVs or partnerships that could unlock nonlinear returns beyond the traditional refinery and marketing metrics? Yes, sir. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you for the question. I think the broad breakup of the capex plan already Director Finance has shared. We have a broad roadmap of major projects which have already been announced, about INR 1.5 lakh crore. You would have observed that we have actually been generating good cash flows from our existing operating business, and that is giving us a good strength for funding these projects going forward. We are having very comfortable debt-to-equity at this stage. There are projects, actually, some of these refinery projects which we are going to do in our existing refineries will be on the balance sheet of BPCL . That would be with a debt-to-equity of about 1:1, up to 1:1, we are comfortable.
At the same time, there could be projects that we would be taking up, which would be in the joint venture format also, both the organic growth potential as well as inorganic, particularly in the new business areas like renewable, etc. We are also planning to put up a CBG plant, 26 CBG plants in which we would have some which would be direct investment projects and some will be put up through JVs. About 16 will be put up through JVs. Therefore, in both these cases, projects which are being put up on our own balance sheet strength, we have considerable leverage available at this point of time, and we would be able to sustain that given that phased manner in which these projects are being implemented. The joint ventures also, our proportionate capital allocation will be considerably modest in that sense because the partnership also will be contributing.
There would also be, particularly in renewable, etc., we would be actually putting up on a high debt-to-equity, particularly renewable. We are targeting good IRR for all these projects in the range of 12%- 5%. Therefore, we expect this to be quite comfortably funded from a capital allocation perspective.
Great, sir. Thank you very much for the guidance. I wish you the best of luck and look forward to hearing you on the next Q2 phone call. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll take this as the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Varatharajan for closing comments.
Yeah. Sir, let me see if you have any closing comments. Please go ahead, Mr. Gupta.
Nothing. We hope we have replied for all the questions. If anything is pending, our team will share the information.
Great. Sir, I wish to thank all the participants and the management of BPCL for patiently answering all the questions. Thank you, everyone, and have a nice day.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. On behalf of Antique Stock Broking Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now give an outro now.