It's 4:30 P.M. and welcome to Chemplast Sanmar Limited, Q1 FY 2024, this conference call. This conference call will contain forward-looking statements about the company which are based on belief, opinion, and expectation of the company as on the date of this call. These statements are not guarantees for future performance and involve risk and uncertainties that are determined. As I've mentioned, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. For assistance during the conference call. Please signal an operator by pressing star then zero one on your own phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ramkumar Shankar, Managing Director of Chemplast Sanmar Limited. Thank you and over to you, sir.
Thank you very much. Good morning, everybody. On behalf of Chemplast Sanmar Limited, I extend a very warm welcome to everyone joining us on our call today. On this call, we are joined by our CFO, N. Muralidharan, and Dr. Krishna Kumar Rangachari, deputy managing director of the Custom Manufactured Chemicals Division. They're also joined by SGA, our investor relations advisor. I hope everyone has had an opportunity to go through the financial results and investor presentation which have been uploaded on the stock exchange website and on our company's website. Q1 2024 has been one of the toughest quarters in recent times for Chemplast and PVC industry in India as a whole. The prices of both suspension and specialty paste PVC were the lowest over the last 8-10 quarters. This depends mainly on the sluggishness in demand globally and the excess in China, and other geographies dumping into India.
A big positive for the industry, however, has been the strength of the domestic demand for both suspension and specialty paste PVC during the quarter. This was evident in the volume growth both year-on-year and sequential basis. The stock levels as of end July dropped to less than a day's production for both suspension and specialty paste PVC. On the pricing front, we have started observing some positive signs from the latter part of the quarter. PVC prices bottomed out at the end of Q1 FY 2024 and have started recovering from July onwards. This is mainly due to the strong domestic demand combined with the fall in import arrivals in the latter part of the quarter, consequent on the reduction in operating rates of PVC plants in Northeast Asia.
The feedstock prices and energy costs have also corrected in the latter part of the quarter and this benefit is likely to accrue in Q2 of this financial year. Talking about effective performance, Specialty Paste PVC faced some heat due to continued pricing pressures on account of the challenges that I spoke about earlier. During the quarter, the import prices fell to around 10% compared to Q4 of FY 2023. That is, however, encouraging momentum and rises in Q2 which is expected to continue. On the Paste PVC volume front, we observed positive trends and saw our sales volume grow by 32% on a year-on-year basis and around 10% on a sequential basis. The custom manufacturing chemicals division continued to perform well and is on track to achieve over 25% revenue growth during the year as against a 10%-15% rise given earlier.
In the case of Suspension PVC, volumes saw a 15% increase on a year-on-year basis and a marginal uptick sequentially. However, the top line decreased by around 30% on a year-on-year basis and around 9% sequentially due to a sharp fall in prices. Prices of Suspension PVC have also bottomed out and we have seen an upward movement starting July and extending into August. The other chemicals comprising of Caustic Soda, Chloromethane, Hydrogen Peroxide, and Refrigerant Gases registered a 45% degrowth in revenues on a year-on-year basis and sequential basis, mainly due to a drop in volumes and prices of most products in this segment. This puts us under significant pricing pressures due to a combination of factors including weak demand, excess supply situation in India due to recent capacity additions, and the global slowdown. We expect these headwinds in these products to continue for a couple of more quarters.
Against this backdrop, we registered a consolidated top line of INR 996 crore, a decline of 13% sequentially with an EBITDA loss of INR 35 crore. Coming to our expansion projects, I'm delighted to update the construction of phase one of our custom manufacturing expansion project has been completed on schedule with an investment of around INR 300 crore and was dedicated to the chairman and the board of directors yesterday. With two LOIs in place and a strong pipeline of other products, we expect this capacity to reach peak utilization in the next two to three years. Phase two of the custom manufacturing expansion project is on track and expected to be commissioned by the end of the year.
With these capacities in place and a good traction with the customers, we are well positioned to achieve around INR 1,000 crore revenues from this business in the next three to four years. On the 41,000-ton specialty-based PVC expansion project, we are on schedule to commission the same by the 31st of this year. Chemplast is a market leader in this space with a very well-established customer base and this project will further cement our leadership position in this segment. While there are immediate challenges, the demand for our products looks very strong and there are positive signs emerging on the pricing front as well. These, coupled with softening energy costs, augur well for us. We are very confident of all our business prospects in the medium to long term and our capital investments will boost our margins and competitive position even further.
With this, I now request our CFO, N. Muralidharan, to share the financial highlights of the quarter and the year. Murli?
Thank you, Ramkumar, and a very good morning to all the participants on the call. Talking about the quarterly performance, given the shift that we have seen in prospects over the recent few quarters, it's more relevant to look at the numbers sequentially rather than on a year-on-year basis. The revenue from operations declined 15% on a Q1-Q2 basis and stood at INR 996 crore. The decline was largely on account of the way realizations were done for all of our products. Overall volumes were, however, stable. Pricing pressure had a lag in the correction in the feedstock prices, resulted in our gross margins declining from 33% in Q2 2023 to 27% in Q1 2024. On the expenses side, both employee costs and other expenses were more or less at the same level as it was during the quarter Q4 FY 2023.
We have seen a decline in oil and steam and utility prices at the end of Q1 FY 2024. This benefit will accrue to us in the coming quarters. With a sharp decline in our gross margins, we registered an extra loss of INR 25 crore during the quarter. Our finance costs stood at INR 34 crore and the net loss we reported was at INR 64 crore. With the uptick in both suspension and Paste PVC prices and the softening of energy costs, the outlook for the next quarter looks better. We expect to see a gradual improvement in profitability over the next few quarters driven both by better margins as well as the impact of the new projects that are being commissioned. On the balance sheet front, the company continues to be actively with a cash and bank balance of INR 1,240 crore on a consolidated basis.
We drew INR 213 crore of public loans during the quarter for the expansion projects and the company continues to be net cash positive as of the end of June 2023. With this, I conclude the presentation and over to the floor for further discussions.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. First question is from the line of Kruthi Karani from Axis Capital. Please go ahead. Kruthi, your line is unmuted. Please go ahead.
Hello?
Hello. As there is no response from the current participant, we'll move to the next question from the line of Jatin Damania from Kotak. Please go ahead.
Good morning, sir, and thank you for the opportunity. Sure. I mean, it is good to see that we are able to report a stable volume, but then we are seeing that import has been increasing across the globe and coming from the various regions. How do we I mean, what was the contribution of the import in the last quarter and then what price currently imports are coming in?
How are you hearing, Jatin? Now, your voice is not very clear. We are not able to hear your question clearly.
Jatin, there is some background noise from your end.
Hello? Is it audible?
Yes, it is, sir. Please go ahead.
Just wanted to check because it was in the opening remarks we indicated that because of the import, there was an excess supply which let down the target prices. But, sir, I mean, just wanted to check how is the contribution of the import in months of July and August and any differences between the imported price and the domestic imported price?
Yeah. That is the question. Actually, the imports were pretty high during the months of January, February, and March and continuing into April. But after that, the imports have started tapering off as the cost pressures and other turnarounds and recent flagship plant turnarounds in different parts of the world. And from total suspension PVC, for instance, the total imports into India in Q4 of last year, that is January to March 2023, was around 900,000 tons. That dropped to around 600,000 tons by Q1 of this year. And this is a significant drop. That is definitely helping the prices go up. Paste PVC as well, we see a similar kind of a drop in imports. And prices also have improved. The import prices of suspension PVC have moved up to $900. They went down to a low of almost $700, $725. It moved up to $900.
Paste PVC from a low of around $900 has moved up to around $1,100. So that is a significant uptick.
So, sir, I mean, Mr. Muralidharan indicated that there will be a sequential improvement in the performance coming from the next quarter. So is it just because of the lower cost because I mean, Jatin said that if you look at the year-over-year basis, the prices have stayed down, but sequentially, just because of 10% increase and the decline in the fuel prices, will support the performance or how shall one look at the other chemicals and the specialty chemicals as is for FY 2024?
I think if you take Suspension PVC from the question what you said, a large part of the margins will come from the relative change in our PVC and VCM prices. Normally, VCM prices follow PVC prices very closely whether up or down. It is only that there is a lag in the impact on feedstock prices while the finished product price change is affected immediately. In a constantly falling price market, which was what it was over the last two quarters, this lag usually is a net loss because there would be an inventory loss as well. However, in a rising price situation, this lag will actually work to our benefit. As we go forward, we expect that since the price movement has reversed, we expect that this will work to our benefit.
Last question from my side on CSM front. Now, last quarter, we had given a guarantee of INR 800 crore for the next three to four years. So are we on track on it and in terms of the approval from the customers of the two molecules? So can you share the timeline on the same? Thank you.
Yeah. So, yeah, we are on track, Krishna Kumar here. So we are on track with reference to the two molecules for which we have the letter of intent. Those two will, in fact, be manufactured in the new block that was dedicated yesterday. So we are on track.
Yes, sir. Thanks also on my side. Thank you. I'll keep you in the queue. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. Before we move to the next question, I remind you to support this event. Anyone who wishes to ask a question, may press star and one. Next question is from the line of Participant from BOB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for giving this opportunity. Let's go back to the import situation that you described where Suspension PVC has dropped from 900- 600 KP and Paste PVC has also dropped. Could you give us the import weight of this? How much is from China? How much is from U.S. and other regions?
Sure. So in Q4 of last year, the total import of suspension PVC was almost 900,000 tons, of which 330,000 tons came from China. In Q1 of this year, the total imports were a little over 600,000 tons, of which 164,000 tons came from China. This is on suspension PVC. And as Paste PVC is considered, the total imports in Q4 of last year were 35,000 tons. China was around 12,000 tons in that. This year, Q1 of this year, the total imports were around 13,500 tons, and China was just about 1,000 tons of that.
Great. So you also mentioned about the reduction in the operating rate of Northeast Asia PVC plants. So are these more focused in China or are you seeing these shutdowns across different markets? And are these because of just an internal shutdown or are there more substantial closures because of the margins dropping?
When I say shutdown, it needs not necessarily be a complete shutdown. It can also be a shutdown of the operating rate, right? This is something that is largely in China on the Carbide PVC plants. Their economics are very different.
So with some of the reduction in the coal prices that we are seeing, would they start becoming a bit more economical for them to restart the plant? Do we see that as a risk going forward or do we think that the phase of the higher import has passed and now it should be sort of beneficial for us or pricing pressure would be lower for the second half?
This is a good question from your side, and that is something that we are always focused on. And in fact, there have been some quantitative restrictions that have been announced, actually notified by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies on lower quality resin coming in from a few geographies, largely from China. But these are yet to be finally notified. And when they are notified, make sure that that threat would be mitigated to a large extent.
Great, sir. Just one last question probably on the custom manufacturing side. You just mentioned that the two molecule LOIs that we are on track. Could you explain the process in which, basically, the pipeline would move from an LOI to a firm order and what are the steps involved and how long does it take, basically, when we start producing a material volume from the same?
Yeah. So on one of the products, we already have a firm order in place. So obviously, the LOI has moved into a commercial order stage. And on the second product, we anticipate initial orders very soon. Our plan is both of them, we will start manufacturing them in the new production block that we have commissioned.
In terms of the quantity ramp-up, how does this happen from the initial order to sort of the final quantity? How long the cycle is and what are the steps in which it goes up?
Okay. There will be a ramp-up over the next two to three years before we get to peak utilization. So, sir, again, I cannot give you additional details about what the ramp-up would be, but our plan is to get to peak utilization within the next two to three years. We are fairly confident.
In terms of the we have just upgraded our guidance from 25%-35% volume growth within a quarter or so. So what has actually benefited us, which is allowing this guidance to get updated? Any color on that front?
The majority of that growth or in fact, all of that growth is coming from the fact that we will be commissioning the new production blocks. It will be new orders being made, manufactured at the new production block. The increase is coming from that.
Fine, sir. Thank you. I'll get this in the queue.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, anyone who wishes to ask a question, may press star and one. Next question is from the line of Pranav Muchhala from Reliance General Insurance. Please go ahead. Hello?
Sir, am I audible?
Yes, you are. Please go ahead.
Sir, I had a question. We are increasing the capacity and as our capacity is coming onstream, and we are reasonably confident of meeting a decent volume guidance. Considering the price trend that is there and the benefits of coal, which not only we will enjoy, but even China will enjoy, how confident are we that this momentum, that negative momentum in terms of the top-line shakeout is here to end? And you see that the adverse spread would not discontinue.
Sir, Pranav, thanks for that question. One good thing is highlighted in my opening comments also is that demand for suspension and paste PVC continues to remain very strong in India. That is a very good sign. The disruptions in prices are largely to do with imports coming in mainly from China, and that has started slowing down. Like I said, there are certain measures that are being looked at to ensure that kind of dumping that is going on. The prices have also started reversing trend. The demand continues to be heavy, especially in suspension PVC as we emerge out of the monsoon. That would be a very good demand for PVC going forward as well. But especially this is where we are increasing our capacity. Even last year, the demand in India was around 163,000 tons.
The total capacity in India, the total production in India is not more than 75,000-80,000 tons without that new capacity that we are bringing in. This year, it is expected to go up by another 10%. The demand in India should go closer to the 180,000-ton mark. By us coming in with a new capacity, there would really not be too much of an issue in terms of selling the product. But this is a product segment where we are the market leader by a factor of four. I think that should not impact. It's only going to our dominance. It's only going to increase. I don't think they will face a problem. The margins are bound to increase both from the point of view of decreasing prices and from dropping energy costs.
Okay. Sir, one thing which I wanted to also further ask is that your view on other chemicals, particularly we see all the segments in other chemicals globally under pressure and other competitors also on the street are resorting to price because of the input commodity pressures being under pressure. So over there, what is your view? I wanted to understand what is your potential view in terms of if you could take some time and explain into the demands in the logistics of the refrigerant gases?
Yes. The current reality is actually where a lot of the challenge is right now. Caustic Soda, for instance, the prices have been dropping. If you look at the international prices, the CFR Asia prices, they were at around $740 in June 2022. They came down to around $395 by June 2023. So that is the kind of drop-off that you see in caustic prices. And that is also the challenge is also in India because of the overcapacity that is there in India. Though some of the capacity that is there is not accompanied by 100% integration into the chlorine side, therefore, they will not be running at the operating rate. However, that overcapacity is still weighing down the prices. And while there are some very early signs of stability and slight recovery, I think Caustic Soda will take a little bit longer to recover.
It's not going to recover on the same level, same speed as PVC is recovering right now. Chlorinated solvents are marketed again. It's a family of three products: methylene chloride, chloroform, and carbon tetrachloride, each one of which goes into a different venue and segment. That is also challenged by overcapacity in India. There again, the recovery is likely to happen only after another couple of quarters. On refrigerant gas, we are a very small player, and we have a very small presence in the market.
Right, sir. So one more thing which I wanted to understand. There's a big capacity of caustic soda which has come up in Inner Mongolia. Has that capacity come onstream? And are we seeing more pressure because of that globally as well as in India in terms of prices because of that capacity?
There's not much of caustic capacity that is actually coming in from Inner Mongolia because caustic really is a product that is transported 50% as water. It's a completely different solution. Transportation costs play a large role in the overall trade flows. Inner Mongolia is way up in the north in China, and then to get to a port itself will take a lot of logistics costs and then to put it on the port and put it on here will take some costs. India is actually a net exporter as far as caustic is concerned. Our situation has been changed a bit. Our demand will also hopefully pick up soon because in most products, India is still a beacon of light in terms of the growing demand.
I expect that it will take a couple of quarters before we start seeing the recovery in that product as well.
Okay. That's all from my side. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that management is able to address questions from all participants in the quadrants, please leave your questions to two participants. Next question is from the line of Dhruv Muchhal from HDFC Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Thank you so much. Sir, first question was that we are seeing some weakness in caustic costs. But in terms of new inquiries, new order flows, are you seeing some change in cautiousness with your customers or that continues to remain strong? How are your customers responding?
Oh, yeah. This is Krishna. Yeah, sir, the pipeline continues to be strong, and our expectation is once we commission this plant and have our customers start consuming us, the pipeline will be even larger as we go along. So we are excited about the opportunity to showcase our manufacturing capabilities over the next few months. And there are various discussions ongoing on this topic. So hopefully, we will have updates as we go along in the coming quarters.
I understand, sir, there are multiple stages in CSM unit with R&D scale. I mean, pilot scale projects and then it converts and commercializes. So the R&D scale projects that you're or the pilot scale projects that you're taking continuously, the inquiry levels still remain healthy?
The R&D and pilot inquiries? I didn't understand the last part.
Yeah. The inquiries remain healthy. That's what I'm trying to understand. The new inquiries.
We continue to proactively invest in those capabilities so that we are ready to meet the increased requirements as we go along. If you look at this holistically, so it's not just about bringing production assets onstream. We are also actively looking at augmenting our capabilities both in the R&D and the product area.
Sir, Dhruv, compared to last year, actually, the product growth on the product pipeline as well as in the customer outreach, the things have only gone on the positive side.
Gotcha. Thank you. Sir, last question is on the power and fuel cost, if you can give the absolute number for this quarter?
Currently, it's close to the total power and fuel cost for us.
Okay. Thank you so much, sir. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Rohit Nagraj from Centrum Broking. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, first question, maybe a little deep dive one. What is the premium that Paste PVC generally fetches over suspension PVC? And what has been the premium probably pre-downfall in PVC prices, and what does it sell currently?
Sir, normally, paste PVC is at a premium of around $200 over suspension PVC. That is the nature of the product, nature of the market itself. There is, when everything is falling, then that premium could be narrowed. When everything is fairly positive, like for instance, in 2021, 2022, that premium gets even as high as $350. Normally, the range is between $200-$250. And the strength that we have in the market is what's come out in the first quarter of this year. When the input price actually fell from $1,040 in March 2023 to around $900 in June, but we kept our prices constant, and we did not follow this down because we believe that that was not a fair indicator of where paste prices should be. So that actually was the indicator of the strength that we have as a market leader there.
Sure, sir. That's a good point. Second question is from Custom Manufacturing. So we had indicated last time that we have about three molecules currently, and additional three molecules in 2022, otherwise, will be added during this year. Just wanted to get perspective on what is the mix in terms of the domestic and exports out of the current set of products? And in terms of innovator and generic mix, how do we foresee it once our second phase of the Custom Manufacturing unit is commissioned? Thank you.
So everything that we make would be for global innovators. So it would all be for markets outside India. So that's one. The domestic mix could be that we would still target on innovators through one of their sole manufacturers in India. So that's possible, but the intent would all be for sale to innovators. And your second question was on the phase two of the project. That's on track, and that will be. So you asked me whether that will change the phase two. No, that will not change the phase two. Our stated model is to work with innovators as much as possible because we bring significant advantages in terms of focus on safety, health, and environmental practices, focus on protecting the intellectual property. And so those are qualities and attributes that are well appreciated by the innovators.
I don't see any change in terms of our product mix. All of it will continue to go to innovators.
Right. Just one clarification. From a user segment perspective, all these molecules currently go into Agri or there are any other segments? And maybe after six to five years, whether there will be other than Agri options that we are working on and the distribution would be probably higher or 35% maybe three years down the line, or four years down the line. Any thoughts on this? Thank you.
Yeah. That's a good question. Yeah. Our product intent is to diversify beyond agrochemicals. So our pipeline that we have has some mix of agro and other fine chemical applications. So as I have stated before, we fairly are not fixed in market. The model we have is applicable irrespective of markets. And so we will continue to focus on diversification beyond agrochemicals.
Thanks, sir. That was helpful. Thank you for talking.
Thank you. Thank you.
Next question is from the line of Quest Invest. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, sir, Mr. Ramkumar and team, and Mr. Krishna Kumar too also. Sorry.
I'm sorry.
Can you give us what was the spread of Suspension PVC and Paste PVC in Q1 average? And now, currently, with this improvement in pricing, how it is trending as well as, I mean, softening of the input price?
Yeah. Good morning, Mr. Saraswathi. There's more latency. The actual spread, the PVC/VCM spread that we got in first quarter was around $130 level. It has moved up. Currently, the international spread themselves have gone up to close $160. So post-duty spreads have moved up to almost $200 level currently.
What in Paste PVC as well as suspension PVC, both?
Suspension PVC. As far as the Paste PVC is concerned, they're fairly vertically integrated. So we manufacture a significant part of the EDC. We don't import EDC. But the contribution levels in Paste PVC themselves have moved up. They themselves. I'm not talking about spreads here. I'm talking about the total contribution considering all the variable costs. They themselves have moved up. They are close to around $250 level contribution.
Sir, when are these expanded facilities come on stream, or when is expected that total whatever I mean, we were expecting from 67,000 to additional 33,000 or 35,000?
This is on Paste PVC. So from around 60,000-65,000 tons, the new facility would be another 41,000 tons. And this is expected to be commissioned around mid-November of this year. And we are on track towards that.
Sir, now coming back to our custom manufacturing, the kind of, I mean, question we are getting as well is, so how is the current visibility, I mean, pipeline that we have, and how do we perceive in this Chemplast Sanmar kind of as well as our chemistry strength, the whole size of and how much capacity that we can do to expand that further in the next five to six years' time if we can give a little more color? And when we are saying that in three years, we'll be picking your utilization. So at that time, what could be the approximate global revenue that we expect?
On the revenue part, like Ramkumar had added earlier, we will be reaching around 1,500 million metric tons to 35,000. As far as the business requirements, like we had indicated earlier, this will be our number one area of focus as far as the capital allocation is concerned. So you would see capital being deployed in this business in the coming years. While I will not be able to give you the exact number on what we will do next, but this is our number one priority in terms of capital allocation, and you would certainly see much more capital being deployed in this business.
One question to Mr. Krishna Kumar. What is our right to win in this business vis-à-vis there are several companies which are lining up for this CDMO business or CMO business?
So our right to win is the value system that is very clearly articulated. And I'll just outline a few of them. One is that we do not have any intent to compete with our customers. Second, which means that we're willing to make whatever they ask us to make in terms of whether it's an active ingredient. I'm sure you saw the announcement about the fact that we won an active ingredient with one of our customers. An example of where we are firmly committed to drawing some very clear boundaries on where we would participate. We are renowned for our safety stewardship. Again, this is something that I've indicated in the past. That is the first criterion that our customers use when they try to work with the supplier. Again, assurance that we will protect the intellectual property of our customers.
An example of that is the fact that a customer is willing to let us make the final molecule itself means that they're assured that we will not do anything with the technology or the information that they share with us. We have a proven track record of execution and a long history of partnerships with the global originator and innovator center companies. Then the last point is from the Chemplast within the ecosystem, we have the ability to handle not just a wide range of chemistries but take those chemistries and scale it up in a safe and sustainable manner. That is the breadth of chemical technologies that we have access to, that we have experience in within the Chemplast ecosystem is something I believe is very unique to us.
The last is that we also have benefited an advantage of having facilities with land available for future expansion. So that's another important aspect that we can sub these production blocks in multiple locations as and when they come and as and when the demand comes and based on our customer requirements.
Thank you. Was this last question?
Sorry to interrupt, Mr. Saraswathi.
Okay. One question in connection with that if you can permit?
Sir, please join the queue. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that management is able to address questions from all the participants, please limit your questions to two per participant. Next question is from the line of Tanmay from ADI Asset. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. So I just wanted to understand on the financial position as of now. Can you clarify on the net debt that we have as of June?
Tanmay, let me see whether if I understand correctly your question. The net debt and on the yeah.
Yes, sir.
Yeah. Net debt - we are slightly net cash positive, INR 27 crore net cash positive.
Including the credit lines that we have, the suppliers, if we include that, what is the position?
So our cash that we carry is around INR 1,244 crores. The term loan that we have is around INR 1,416 crore project loans that we have taken. On a net cash basis, we are around INR 27 crore net cash basis. As far as the suppliers are concerned, those are actually regular accounts. That is ongoing.
Okay. No, sir. I was, I mean, trying to understand the overall in terms of future capabilities we are looking. What will be the outflow for FY 2024 CapEx?
For FY 2024, we have already indicated that. For the current financial year, we have already indicated that the Paste PVC project that is ongoing, that will get completed. We have talked about three project investments. One is the Paste PVC projects where we are investing in cash. And second is custom manufacturing phase one and phase two where we are investing cash. And these are the three projects that we are ongoing. And also, we have talked about the caustic where we are restoring capacity. That will also be completed during this quarter. In terms of actual cash spend, if we are looking at it, the cash spend for the year will be around INR 750 crore for the capex. But part of the projects of these projects get spent last year, and around INR 250 crore will be spending this year.
Sir, just in terms of the current situation that we are going through, in terms of cash generation overall and also in terms of the credit lines that we take, considering the higher interest rate, how do you look at the impact for this year and, let's say, the CapEx plans for the next year as well?
Like Ramkumar is explaining, the Q1A is an exception. We have started seeing things moving up, and you will see cost of cash generation coming up in the coming quarters. As far as the existing projects are concerned, like I said, we are already closing to INR 44 crore of cash, and we have made up the necessary financing that is net financing. We're broadly doing it on a basis of 60/40. So net financing is something we have made up. And whatever is the equity that we need to deploy, we have sufficient capital to deploy the cash, to deploy that equity from the cash that we are already carrying. As far as the future project investment, like I said, the primary focus is on custom manufacturing.
Like we had indicated in earlier calls, once we have visibility around 60% for the new block, we'll immediately announce the next block. So the first block, we can commission it. We have full visibility. And the second block, we have reasonable visibility. Once we have 60% visibility, we'll announce the next capex. And expenditure is any of that will not happen this year. It will happen only next year also if we are able to announce that. Like I said, we will have cash generation from the business, but also, we have sufficient cash already in our hand to make all of the expenses.
Gotcha. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Chetan Thakkar from ASK Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Hello? Good morning, sir. Am I audible?
Yes, you are audible. Please go ahead.
Sir, just wanted to understand, what will be the trajectory for the ROC for the custom manufacturing business, and how should we see that over the course of the next three years?
The return on capital investment roughly is around 30% plus.
Sir, this is just purely from the CMC business that I was asking.
I'm only talking about the CMC business. I'm not talking here EBITDA margin. I'm talking about the return on capital that we did.
This is five years out or four years out when it's fully utilized?
This is the return on capital investment. We grow on a peak scale when we manufacture what we do with the return on capital.
Sure, sure. That is the number that I was looking at. Sure, sir. Okay. Thank you so much. All the best.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of P. Karani from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. This is Ankur Periwal from Axis. I hope my voice is audible.
Yes, you are audible.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Okay. So, sir, a couple of questions there. Now, one, you mentioned the lower coal prices being there and probably some bit of benefit also in terms of spreads going ahead. Won't the spreads on the PVC prices factor in the coal prices declining?
See, the point is that, like I said, imports coming in from China have also started going down. There are two things that will drive this further. One is recovery in China. There is some better consumption of PVC. Even the futures prices of PVC in China have moved up. They went down as low as 5,500 RMB per ton, and right now, they are at 2,200-2,300 RMB per ton. So there is a better outlook within China on the PVC consumption. And skinny coal is a very good demand that is there that is seen in India, and that is also a factor that is keeping the prices. It's driving to move up and prices up. In the U.S. as well, there have been factors related to some shortages in production, and that has resulted in exports out of the U.S. having come down.
The U.S. and China are really the two large exporting geographies, and given what has been happening in both of those places, I think it's solving well for prices, and that's what is driving the upward movement.
Sure, sure. Fair enough. Secondly, on the PVC and VCM prices, till last quarter, we were seeing a sharp rise in them. Any specific reason? What was the rise and whether things have normalized now? Whether this decline is sustainable or not is where I'm coming from.
Yes. VCM is really a one-fit-only. So basically, 99% of the VCM produced in the world is consumed in the manufacture of PVC. So VCM will traditionally follow PVC go up and down. The problem that was there for us over the last two or three quarters really is that there was a constant fall in prices. PVC kept falling on an immediate basis. Whereas the fall in VCM prices is usually after a lag of a month or so because it takes time for that lower cost to reach us. And therefore, in a constantly falling regime, that trend against us. But like I said earlier, when the trend reverses that, which is reversing right now, this lag will work to our benefit. So there is no real disconnect between PVC and VCM price direction. EDC is more or less similar.
Except that EDC just affected the thing on N-2 intermediate. It has affected a little bit the cost a little bit by PVC, so it's not as straightforward as VCM is. But there again, if you look at the CFR Asia prices from around $365 in March, they have fallen to around $260 in July. And EDC prices did fall. And today, the PVC/EDC delta is quite heavy.
Sir, I have a question related to that. You did mention there's reduction in plant operations in Northeast Asia and correlating that with the reduction in imports into India from China. Just to understand, is it because of the lower supply in China that the imports have reduced, or is it that the domestic consumption in China has improved and hence lower imports outside?
Combination of both, I would say. And like I just mentioned, the futures prices and the spot prices in China have also gone up for PVC over the last couple of months, and that is also an indicator of a slightly improving sentiment within China, I said.
Sure, sir. That's helpful, and thanks a lot for answering the questions. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Amarnath Mohan from Mirae Asset. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. I have two sets of questions. First of all, as you are saying in your conference call as well as in the presentation, that this PVC price trend has reversed. Now, how confident are you that this reversal is going to sustain? I know there is an uncertainty, but because of your experience in the business, are you now, because the downturn is going on from last eigh to 10 quarters? I don't know when last time it happened like that. Are you reasonably certain that this trend is going to stay here? And is there any link with the crude oil prices? That's the first question. There is, at the end of the day, there is a link with the crude oil price.
A broad link because if crude oil consumption tomorrow moves up from $80 or wherever it is today to $140, then everything that is a derivative of crude would go up. Ethylene is a derivative of crude to a large extent. That would go up, and PVC prices, all the downstream products would also go up. Largely, there is a linkage there. As far as whether this reversal is sustainable, we believe so. We believe that it is also driven by the strong demand that is there and the fact that, especially within India, there is not much inventory within the system. The traditional weak season, which is the monsoon season, is easy, and there would be inventory stocking activities ahead of the peak season post the monsoon. We believe that is a trend that is likely to continue.
Of course, there is no such thing that is 100% certain, so we can only say that this is what we believe.
Thank you. That's a reasonable assurance from the management side. My second question was relating to manufacturing. While you were saying that the addressable market size is around $2 billion, that means you're talking about this $2 billion addressable market price for you as a participant or the entire participants today as a whole?
Sir, the entire participants as a whole. Market opportunity for India.
How many players currently do you think that are playing for this particular participant from India?
Not for the not many, actually. Maybe a handful. I would say, from a customer standpoint, they would look at maybe three or four maximum as reliable players.
So can we assume just to follow up, can we assume, so far I understood from your comment, that there is a reasonable moat around this business? Not everybody can come into this business so easily because of technical collaboration required, because of the relationship with the customer, because of IP protection issues. So can we largely assume these three, four players who are currently in the market, probably taken big slice, that the entry for the newcomer into this side of the business is literally quite difficult?
Sure.
To go from India. Now, so whatever is the pie size, whether it is $2 billion or maybe China Plus One, if it is worth, it can go to $3 billion or $4 billion. So these existing players who are already there, they will literally get the higher pie as the size of the opportunity increase.
That's a reasonable assumption. That's correct.
Okay. And you say the exit ROC of this business is around 40%, right?
It's primarily because the current expansion is its brown field expansion. It's sort of leverages the existing investments that have been made in the assets. So that is the reason the current investment ROC would be around that. So looking at a cash investment on a static state basis, what would happen? Then it could vary between 30-40. It's the new investment, actually.
If we have to assume 30.
Sorry to interrupt, Mr. Amarnath, maybe.
I'll better tell you a current one, right?
Sorry to interrupt Mr. Amarnath, maybe please request you to swipe the queue if you have any further queries.
Okay.
Thank you, sir. Next question is from the line of Jainam Ghelani from Svan Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. I just have a few questions. So as of now, are we holding any high-cost inventory?
Not much, Jainam. In fact, all our PVC inventory is absolutely down to current production as of the end of July. In terms of others as well, if you look at the ethylene and EDC stocks that are available, then as far as paste PVC is concerned, we would have around 17,000 tons requiring that we would have. That is actually a positive in a rising market.
Okay. And sir, how much quantity or volume will get impacted from Northeast Asia due to the shutdown?
So already, the arrivals from Northeast Asia have come down. As I was mentioning, I gave you the numbers of Chinese imports. In Q4 of last year, 333,000 tons of imports came in from China, and in Q1 of this year, it dropped to 164,000 tons. So it was that arrivals that happened in Q4 of last year that impacted the prices in the first quarter of this year. And if you look at Paste PVC as well, China in Q4 of last year, there were 12,000 tons that came in, and in Q1 of this year, it was less than 1,000 tons.
Okay, sir. Thanks a lot, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Jiten Doshi from PhillipCapital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Good morning. Thanks for the opportunity. Just wanted to have a contribution from CMC business in this quarter's revenue.
Sir, actually, this is a campaign-based business, so the numbers could vary from quarter to quarter. Like we had indicated earlier, we had reported 15% growth this year. Currently, based on the tracking of data, we expect it to be more than 24%. As far as the actual numbers are concerned, we would like to discuss this on an annual basis.
That's fine, sir. I just wanted to have a broad percentage as a percentage of consolidated revenue you can indicate because in the previous quarters, you had given a sense that around 11% or so, right? So what was the claim in this quarter? Just wanted to have a continuation of that question.
Like I had indicated in the last quarter, it was annual numbers. We talked about the manufacturing business. Now, quarter-on-quarter, because it's campaign-only, it will not be really start giving the numbers on a quarter-on-quarter basis. So we prefer to defer to the annual numbers and things like that. However, we have given specialty chemicals numbers, and custom manufacturing chemicals is part of that that's provided in our investor presentation. I would like to see if we can just get guided by that.
Fair enough, sir. I hope I understood your question. So yeah. So my second question is around suspension PVC. So as you indicated, there is a drop in imports, but the domestic demand has been great in the quarter. So if you can just give us a perspective for both India and China market in terms of overall demand, production, and with respect to Indian market, how has the market basically bifurcated in terms of domestic production and imported volumes?
Suspension PVC, in fact, FY 2023, that is 2022/2023, the market was around 3.7 million tons, and it grew by around 32% over FY 2022, which was around 2.8 million tons. This was a lot of pent-up demand after the COVID two years. And since this, the domestic production was only around 1.5 million tons. So there was an increase of around 2.2 million tons last year, we said. This year, we.
Sorry, sir. Pardon for the interruption. I was asking more from the perspective of first quarter, how was the demand environment in India and selection against that demand?
First quarter, demand in suspension PVC is around 930,000 tons. The first quarter, domestic production would be around 375,000 tons.
Right. So rest was imported, this is the first thing?
Imported at around 600,000 tons.
Right. But you also mentioned that the import in the first quarter actually dropped, and it was close to, I think.
Right.
The number you mentioned was so China was 164,000 tons. Sorry. Yeah, 600,000 totals. Sure. And sir, can you give a similar number for China as well? What was their total production and their demand? Is that possible?
We do not have their quarter-to-quarter production and sales numbers. Generally, if you look at the size of their market, they have a total production capacity of around 26-27 million tons, and their total market demand is around 21 million tons in a normal year. It normally grows at around 5% or so. We need to see how the current year stands.
Sure. Thank you so much. That's very helpful.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Aditya Khetan from S&P Investment. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. So can you help me with the breakdown of the current gross block and CWIP, which is INR 3,700 crores, across your businesses? How much of the gross block would be in PVC, suspension PVC, and custom manufacturing? This is my first question.
Yeah, sure, I think this is quite detailed. We would be happy to take this offline. It's okay.
All right. Sure. If you could help me understand how differently the working capital is for these segments, in short, if you could just allow us to understand how the working capital works for these businesses.
Sure. Like I said, Mr. Ajay, these are, I think, looked at retail modeling questions. We would be happy to take it offline. If it's.
Okay. Sure. Thanks. That's it from me.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Rajeev from IIFL Securities. Please go ahead.
Yep. Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Most of the questions have been answered. Just one update. The proposal from the DGTR to have quantitative restrictions on the imports coming to India. Is there any update on that one?
Yeah. This was actually notified by the DGTR on 15th of May 2023. This needs to be finally notified by the Commerce Ministry, and we are awaiting the final notification.
Any indication on the timeline?
Unfortunately, we don't have an indication on the timeline, but I think it is due anytime, so it should happen anytime.
How do you view that? Would that put a bit of pressure on the imports to India, or it has already happened?
Yes. It would at least bring a little bit more discipline. That's what we believe.
Sure, sir.
Let me see if that.
Yeah. So there were two classifications between the cheap grade and then the higher content of VCM.
That's right. That's right. So it will at least ensure that the better quality data purposes to ensure that the same quality standards that domestic industry are being held to does apply to imports as well. And I think that is really the purpose of this entire experiment.
Sure. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to the constraint, we will take this as the last question for the day. I would now like to hand the conference over to Muralidharan for the closing comments.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for the interest that you've shown in our company and for your participation in today's call. If you have any further queries, please do contact SGA Investor Relations Advisor. Good day to everyone.
Thank you. On behalf of Chemplast Sanmar Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.