Ladies and gentlemen, good day, welcome to Cipla Limited Q1 FY 2024 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ajinkya Pandharkar from Cipla Limited. Thank you, and over to you, Ajinkya.
Thank you, Seema. Good evening, a very warm welcome to Cipla's Q1 FY 2024 earnings call. I'm Ajinkya Pandharkar from the Investor Relations team at Cipla. Let me draw your attention to the fact that on this call, our discussion will include certain forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections, or other estimates about future events. These estimates reflect management's current expectation of the future performance of the company. Please note that these estimates involve several risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from what is expressed or implied. Cipla does not undertake any obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new confirmations, future events, or otherwise. I would like to request Umang to take over, please.
Thank you, Ajinkya. Good evening to all of you. We appreciate you joining us today for our first quarter earnings call for financial year 2024. I hope you have received the investor presentation that we have posted on our website. We have also released our sixth integrated annual report for financial year 2023. This report continues to be a reflection of our commitment and focus towards improving transparency, governance, and setting best-in-class disclosure practices. I am pleased to share our quarter one FY 2024 performance, which demonstrates strong commercial execution, sustainability, and growth in our focus markets. Now, I'll cover the key highlights for the quarter. In quarter one, FY 2024, we recorded a solid 18% year-on-year growth across all markets. We had record revenue in both our flagship businesses of One India and the U.S.
Our One India branded prescription business grew faster than the IPM as per IQVIA MAT, June 2023, driven by growth in chronic portfolio. U.S. continues to scale new peaks by posting the highest ever revenue for the quarter once again on the back of momentum in our differentiated portfolio. In South Africa, the private market business has strongly bounced back from a challenging FY 2023, posting double-digit growth in prescription and OTC segments. South Africa prescription business is now ranked second by market share in the country as per IQVIA MAT, May 2023. Besides strong revenue growth, Q1 FY 2024 witnessed a strong EBITDA margin at 23.6%, largely driven by mix and efficiency in operations.
In this quarter, we strengthened our balance sheet further. In line with our strategy, we continue to allocate our capital towards multiple growth initiatives, complex pipelines, new science, big brands, and expansion of our consumer portfolio to make this growth sustainable for the longer term. I would now like to cover further details on our focus markets, which powered the growth for this quarter. Our India branded prescriptions business continued its market-leading growth trajectory with a sustained momentum across all therapies by growing significantly higher than the IPM growth as per MAT, June 2023. Our share of chronic therapies and our revenue share grew from 58% to 60% on a year-on-year basis, with improvement in industry market share from 8.4 to 8.6.
Continuing with our strategy of making big brands bigger, our leading inhaler brand, Foracort, dropped 27% growth in quarter one, which is one of the fastest among the top IPM, top 10 IPM brands. Ibugesic Plus became the 11th brand to enter the top 100 IPM brands. Cipla is now amongst top two in terms of number of brands in the top 100 in the Indian pharma market. Our trade generics business maintains its market leadership, supported by traction in big brands. We continue with our launch momentum by adding 23 products in the portfolio to build our future. Our consumer health arm, CHL, witnessed a strong double-digit growth, with margins reaching closer to mid-teens for the quarter, leveraging on our brand strength, market penetration, attractive consumer-focused packaging, and positioning. Our differentiated portfolio in U.S. continues to deliver strong growth for the franchise.
The business yet again achieved its highest sales in the quarter by realizing a revenue of $222 million, growing by a strong 43% over the last year. Generic Revlimid continues to perform as per expectations, while Lanreotide has improved its market share to 18% as per the MAT, May 2023. Market share of Albuterol, which witnessed a drop in Q4 of FY 2023, has now stabilized. We have not lost any customer awards on the product and continue to execute multiple work streams to capitalize on any new opportunities to grow the share further. In South Africa, we are pleased to share that Cipla is now the second-largest player in the prescription market by market share.
Cipla grew at a four-year CAGR of 8.6% in the, in the market, which is growing at 3.6% per the IQVIA MAT, May 2023. South Africa's private market grew 13% year-on-year, powered by an uptick in focus therapies in our prescription business, as well as the high growth of 16% in our OTC portfolio. Strong momentum across new launches has given our portfolio a new muscle for growth. Our focus continues to be driving market-leading growth, and we aim to inch towards the top position in the market in the next few years. Investing in the future pipeline has always been our priority. We have three differentiated products undergoing clinical trials, with filings targeted in FY 2024 and 2025. We are expecting Symbicort to be filed by the end of this year.
On peptides, we expect four to five peptide launches in the next two years. We also expect a couple of new peptides to be filed in the same period. On the regulatory front, we still await classification from the US FDA for our Indore facility, which was audited in February 2023. We have already initiated corrective actions for observations as per the Form 483 we received from the FDA. Implementation of CAPA and remediation continues for our Goa facility, where we hope to be re-inspected in the second half of this financial year. Informed in our last earnings call, de-risking has been progressing as per our expectations for our key assets. Generic Advair is being de-risked to an in-house facility while we await the Indore classification.
As guided earlier, we are expecting to take this product to the market in a period of 12 months, with no incremental generic competition expected in that time frame. Generic Abraxane, which is nab-paclitaxel, is being de-risked to a CMO site. We expect the ability to supply from both of our sites for this file by FY 2025. I would now like to invite Ashish to present the financial and operational performance.
Thank you, Umang. This quarter, we further enhanced our performance across all our core businesses with expansion and profitability. We witnessed growth in all three of our biggest markets of India, U.S., and South Africa, supported by growth in focused portfolio of chronic and differentiated products. Coming to the key highlights for the quarter, we are pleased to report a quarterly revenue of INR 6,329 crores. The overall revenue growth for the quarter was at 18% on year-on-year basis. Our One India franchise further expanded its market share by growing at a healthy 12%, supported by growth in chronic portfolio. The impact of NLEM pricing for the quarter has been largely offset by multiple measures. New launches contributed to the growth in branded prescription business, with our in-licensed products, Galvus and Scapho, contributing to the list.
The US business reported the highest ever revenue, driven by traction and differentiated portfolio, with revenue of $222 million, growing at 0.3% YOY. South Africa grew at 13% YOY in local currency terms, powered by a solid performance in private market, including OTC. Amidst geopolitical and currency headwinds, the focus of international markets has been on margin expansion, which has aided our quarter one performance. Our free cash flow generation and operating efficiency continues to drive our healthy net cash position. Our EBITDA margin stood at 23.6% for the quarter on a reported basis. As always, this EBITDA margin is not including other income. Our EBITDA margins for the quarters include impact of higher R&D expenses and other provisions.
R&D investments are driven by ongoing clinical trials on differentiated portfolio, as well as other developmental efforts, higher in the quarter by 27% versus last year. Our reported gross margin after material costs stood at 64.7% for the quarter, which is 230 basis points above last year's figures, driven by contribution from new launches and overall mix change. Total expense for the quarter included employee costs and other expenses, which stood at INR 2,598 crore, up by 3.8% on a sequential basis. Total R&D investments for the quarter are at INR 349 crore, or 5.5% of revenue, and were, like I said, 27% higher on YOY basis.
Profit after tax for the quarter is at INR 996 crore, so close to about INR 1,000 crore, at about 15.7% of sales. The effective tax rate is constant YOY at 27.5%. As of June 30, 2023, our debt primarily constitutes ZAR 720 million in South Africa, with cash equivalent balance at a company level of INR 6,941 crore. This results in improvement of our cash position from INR 5,469 crore in March to INR 6,138 crore in this quarter end. Looking ahead, we continue to walk on the path of revenue growth and operating profitability. Growth levers in the subsequent quarters will include continued market-leading growth across One India businesses of prescription, Trade Generics, and Consumer Health.
Traction, a robust traction in our North America franchise across complex portfolio and continued contribution from respiratory and peptide products, creating a more resilient business through de-risked portfolio and supply. Sustaining performance of quarter one for South Africa, with focus on private market, select tender, and improving the margins in South Africa. Drive growth in focus geographies in international markets. We expect the full year EBITDA to be trending towards 23% for the year. I'd like to thank you for your attention and request moderator to open for the questions.
Thank you very much. We will now begin with the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We take the first question from the line of Mr. Saion Mukherjee from Nomura Securities. Please go ahead, sir.
Yeah, thank you. Good evening. Umang, this quarter-on-quarter improvement in the US, how, what do you ascribe this to? Is there a big Revlimid contribution, and in the next few quarters, you know, how we should think about it?
I don't think the Revlimid contribution, quarter-on-quarter is significant, Sayan. I think the base business has also grown very impressively between quarter four and quarter one, and of course, between quarter one of last year and quarter one of this year, we have seen our base business also grow tremendously. I think quarter-on-quarter, there is not a material difference in Revlimid between quarter four and quarter one.
Okay, thank you. My second question, one, is on the future pipeline in the U.S. You mentioned about, you know, four, five peptide launches. You know, Lupron Depot seems to be, you know, having low market shares. How should we think about the potential of this peptides, and also particularly on Abraxane, is the bottleneck just around the site, or are there any queries on the file that we need to address there?
Sayan, on Abraxane, we have received notification that, the only thing pending on the file is the site.
Okay.
On your other question, I'm sorry, that was on Leuprolide, right? I think you will begin to see share gains because that we were waiting for certain price approvals in the market, certain codes being assigned, which is now done. The codes have been assigned, hopefully you will see increase in market share there.
Okay, sir. Thanks, Umang. I'll join back.
Thank you.
Thank you, sir. We take the next question from the line of Mr. Rohan Vora from Purnartha Investment Advisers. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you so much. My first question was, what would be the guided CapEx for FY 2024 for Cipla?
We said about 5% of the revenue, 4%-5%. Somewhere in the range of INR 1,000-INR 1,500 per annum is what you could take as the CapEx.
Okay.
Which can be in the area of sustainability, modernization, as well as in some cases, capacity enhancements.
Understood. Understood. What part of this CapEx would be attributable to solely maintenance, wherein, you know, that would not lead to any kind of capacity expansion, just pure maintenance CapEx?
No, no, without giving a split, I think, you know, it's a combination of both to capacity enhancements in API and formulation, as well as there is maintenance CapEx. You know, they can be small when you're de-risking some of these assets of the US portfolio, they can be small CapEx on account of that as well.
Understood. Understood. Even a broad range would be fine, workable, just a broad range would also do. What would be the maintenance and the normal CapEx split? I was looking for that.
You can take about 50/50, roughly, of maintenance and growth.
Sure, sir. Just the last question here. I was also, you know, looking to understand this maintenance CapEx. Would this be, you know, in nature of what kind of equipment are we looking at? You know, what is the addition that would be made to our business as a whole? Just a little understanding, you know, for just my understanding kind of sake. Yeah, thank you.
It's again, sustainability related, environment related, and the maintenance. Sometimes in some of the plants, you have to take shutdown to make sure that the equipments are properly functioning, improve efficiencies, et cetera.
Understood. Understood. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from the line of Mr. Prashant from Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Please go ahead, sir.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. Just referring to your earlier comment of, you know, the U.S. or the North America growth, more led by non generic Revlimid. What is driving the growth in terms of? Is it because the competitors are having the regulatory issue, and that's why we are able to gain market? Or is it because the price erosion itself is getting limited? If you could throw some light.
I think it's a combination of various factors. Price compression is obviously lesser than before. At the same time, we are seeing, you know, I think one has to also look at what is happening in the U.S. A large number of U.S. companies are, you know, are either amalgamating, merging, or are going bankrupt. That is eliminating certain number of people in the system. It's also having an impact on certain channels in the U.S., which only buy products which are made domestically. We are seeing, you know, a rebalancing of the supply chain happening, which, because of which our base families are actually growing. Then obviously, we are seeing a resurgence in our share in products like Lanreotide.
Then we are also seeing, at the same time, certain buying programs of, you know, of different channels, being, you know, it being, you know, being serviced very differentially. I think that's the, that's the thing we are seeing. It's a combination of factors. I would not attribute it to a single factor.
Understood, sir. Compared to previous, in the previous quarter guidance of 22%, and now we are talking for 23%. Broadly, what has changed, you know, that gives the confidence of 23% of the demand?
No. No, I think, it's our target that we've taken. We've had a good quarter, in this quarter one, so it gives us some confidence that we can take up that target of delivering 23% for the year. You have to bear in mind that, you know, seasonality of the, you know, each quarter as well. That also plays a role. We've had a good quarter, but overall, we've we target to 23%.
Understood. Just lastly on Indore, while the classification is awaited, but has there been any feedback from USFDA apart from classification, to understand particularly, ultimately to the generic Advair approval? Thanks so much.
Yeah. We have heard that generic Advair is now only pending facility. The fact that it is not yet cleared right now means the facility is still under evaluation. Having said that, the whole Advair transfer to another facility is underway. The facility is getting ready for this in the US, and very soon the transfer activities will start.
Okay. That's it. Thank you, sir.
Thank you, sir. We'll take the next question from the line of Mr. Kunal Dhamesha from Macquarie. Please go ahead, sir.
Hi, thank you for taking my question, and congratulations on the good set of numbers. Just continuing on the Advair, I believe that we would need to be filing some amendment to our initial ANDA. Some color as to whether that would be a major amendment or minor amendment, and have you already filed it with the US FDA, or are we expected to file it in some time?
No, it will be expected to be filed. We are still in the transfer stage right now. Yes, the chances are it will be a major amendment.
Okay. Is there any guidance from US FDA as to what time do they take for the major amendment or something?
No, we don't have.
To approve.
We don't have. Generally, it's at the outer, it's about eight months. If it is sooner because, you know, it's a limited generic, then it could be sooner within that period.
Sure. Thanks. The second question is on the U.S. generics overall market. You said there are some buying programs of certain channels. Are you kind of referring to some of the shortage products where there are short-term tenders which comes up, you know, or is it some channels like Veterans Administration and stuff like that?
It's a combination of all of those.
Let's say in the, you know, the public data suggests that the U.S. drug shortages are at an all-time high. Are we seeing, you know, I think commentary says that on a portfolio level, we are still seeing some price erosion, but in those shortage products, are we seeing a very good, you know, kind of double-digit price hikes, in your view?
I don't think there is a general rule that prices have gone up across products which are in shortage. I don't think that's happened. I'm not sure that that is what has happened. It's just that the price pressure environment is lesser. I think those are the two factors we are seeing.
Last one from my side. Are the $222 million, you know, revenue run rate, do you think it can sustain going forward in the coming quarters?
You know, I think our base level will be somewhere in the range of 210-215. I mean, what I meant by 210-215 was what we will be reporting, broadly going forward, quarter by quarter. If you were asking whether our base business would be slightly short of that.
Sure. Thank you. I'll get back in the queue.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Damayanti Kerai from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you for the opportunity. Coming back to Advair, should we assume, like you mentioned, 12 months for transfer, right? The transfer to the additional site, and then there is a timeline associated with amendments, et cetera. Broadly, should we assume this opportunity is now beyond FY 2025?
No, not beyond FY 2025. Beyond this year, if Indore is not cleared, yes, but not beyond FY 2025.
Okay. If we consider all timelines, it could still be a 2025 launch opportunity for you?
Yes, yes. With a transfer to a new location, definitely, it's gonna be a 2025 opportunity.
Okay, my second question is, if you can update us on your initiative in the India business, because last quarter you mentioned about adding MR. That's first, then if you can talk about your strategy in the 3 segments, RX, GS, and the CHL part, that would be helpful.
I think strategy in GS is to be strong in the distribution side of the tier 2-6 markets, which are seeing a large amount of volume growth. I think we have a good portfolio family. This market continues to expand. I think on RX, our branded franchise is doing really well. We are, you know, the therapies that we are working on are growing our respiratory therapy. We are growing share in cardiac. You know, diabetes used to be nowhere, we are now number 8. We are still growing strong, addition of portfolio through Galvus. If you look at the cardiac thing, cardiac segment, the whole focus on heart failure, structural heart diseases, I think that's where we are focusing on.
Urology is also now, we have fixed our execution issues. I think we're bouncing back there. Almost all therapies are firing on all cylinders. Our new product launch pipeline for the India market has been pretty significant. Overall, in terms of reps, we have added about 250-300 reps already in this quarter.
total is like 1,000 MR addition for this fiscal, right?
That's right. Hopefully by the second quarter, we would have added close to 400 or 500, we will probably stop at that for the time being.
sorry, another 400, 500 by second, half.
We'll be at 500 net addition by quarter two end.
Okay.
We would stop because our program started sometime in quarter four of the previous year. We have already added some reps in that time, then we've added 250 in this quarter, and then we'll add perhaps another 150, 200 in the next quarter.
Okay. On the RX part, now with most of the issues fixed and MR addition coming to an end, et cetera, you are confident about maintaining above market growth on the RX segment?
Yes. We will be maintaining higher than market growth.
Okay, thank you. I'll get back in the queue.
Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take the next question from the line of Mr. Suryanarayan Patra from PhillipCapital . Please go ahead, sir.
Yes, thanks for the opportunity, sir. Just one clarification about the US business. We are almost approaching the 12-month for post our launch of Revlimid in the US. Any sense of what is the kind of volume share that we are tracking in the US? And also the kind of a ramp up what we have seen in the US business, to some extent it is not matching with the kind of ramp up in the prescription numbers for Revlimid. If you can clarify there a bit.
Yeah, I think what you're looking at is, you know, is a little different. I think the issue is that you are trying to correlate the Revlimid business with the entire gain that's happened in the US. I don't think that's true, because I think our non-Revlimid portion has also gained significantly.
So, across categories, we've seen higher share. Either higher share or as I mentioned, buying programs that buy domestically, or a channel readjustment that's happening in the market. Or shortages, right? So I think even our existing families have done well, and certain new launches, we've got disproportionate share of the market. I'm not sure we would like to give share on Revlimid, because frankly, it's from a volume perspective, our volume shares are actually negligible or really marginal. So I don't think that's the right metric to track on this launch.
Oh, okay. Fine, sir. Sir, any just a extension, have you seen any kind of meaningful correction in the Albuterol revenue base sequentially in the U.S., sir?
Yes, we have seen a slight decrease in Albuterol. I think that's linked to our share decrease, which we think is stabilized now. There was a situation in the market where the largest family of Albuterol in the US, which was the, you know, which was the family of, you know, ProAir. That one had, unfortunately, you know, there seemed to be some kind of a supply imbalance there, because of which a few families, non-ProAir families stepped up to take share. I think now we are seeing a little bit of that readjustment, but we are hoping to grow from here, from the share we have right now.
Okay. Just last one question, sir, from my side regards the domestic business. There is some interesting developments happening, and one is that obviously one of the key large size competitor is also moving into the trade-centered business. Now, in the last one-year period, possibly, we have seen almost all the participant in the domestic formulation have either expanded their portfolio or extended their reach or expanded their sales force. In a way, it is all these are creating kind of a competition only. Hence, do you kind of anticipate margin pressure or the profitability challenge for the domestic business? Also, considering this competition in the trade generic, do you see any major dynamic changes in the domestic market, sir?
No, actually we don't. We, you know, there was this, there was this issue of pharmacies earlier. That issue now seems to have stabilized a bit. There was the issue of pricing compression. I think that, you know, that doesn't seem to be impacting the market. I think the realization is that there is very strong growth in India right now, and there's strong volume growth, and there's also strong new introductions growth. That's one aspect. Second aspect, you know, 60% of our country and more lives in tier 2 to 6 cities. They are becoming more accessible. They want more access to healthcare, and they have the ability to pay for it.
I think that's 1 switch where the trade generics begins to capture the market, and also some of our strategies are to focus our larger brands in this area of the market. We don't think there's a leap, you know, that it's trade generics versus branded generics versus consumer healthcare. These are all parts of the same market. You know, you can't look at the total market with just the India represented with metro and tier 1, or the Bharat represented with tier 2 to tier 6. It's actually a combination of the total space.
Okay. Okay. Sure, sir. Thank you. Wish you all the best.
Thank you, sir. We take the next question from the line of Mr. Ankush Mahajan from Axis Securities. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, sir, for taking my question, and congrats for good set of numbers. In US market, as the revenue 100, we are looking, the last quarter you said that revenue is in the range of $200 million. Now we have increased it to $210 million-$215 million. Just try to understand that, this GD you made, how many quarters, we can gather that, you know? Basically, what is the contract, can you throw some light on it, sir? It's business for next 2 years.
No, I don't think I can give you a guidance that far out. I can say is that, you know, from the last quarter, we, you know, were at $190-$200, now we are at close to $210. That's a reflection of what we think our product families are doing in the U.S. Right? In the next quarter, if I, you know, if we find that some of our families have fallen off, we will come back and tell you that this is the base level of our business that we are looking at. Right now, we are feeling quite comfortable with the $200-$210 trajectory, which is what we've indicated.
Thank you, sir. Sir, another is extension of, another part, that you said that about, some buying programs and channel readjusting. Would you throw some more light on, sir, these things?
Yeah, there are some, you know, there are some customers who only buy from locally made product, right? That is one readjustment as US companies begin to get, you know, are either closing down or are going through amalgamation. That's one disruption. Other thing is there are some buying programs which focus on buying for sustainability versus buying for necessarily price, right? Sustainability could be sustainability of environment, sustainability of supply. These programs are fairly active considering the shortage situation right now, I think that creates, you know, that creates an opportunity in some of these segments.
Thank you, sir. Thanks so much.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from the line of Miss Neha Manpuria from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question. Umang, on the US number that you mentioned, $210 million-$215 million. Just to clarify, this is the base that I should assume on top of which we add the new launches that you talked about, the peptides and, you know, share gain and Leuprolide and all of that. Is that the right way to look at it?
Yes, broadly, Neha. Broadly, yes.
Okay. On the peptide launches, would this be back-ended weighted, you know, is there anything that is required? Is Goa critical for the approval of these products, or these are third party and therefore not so much dependent on Goa?
This is completely third party. We don't have any dependence on the peptide family. We also have dependence on Goa or Indore for a large number of other products.
Understood. The only thing pending for these launches is essentially approvals.
Are essentially nab-paclitaxel, which is getting de-risked and Abraxane.
Yeah.
Advair.
Okay. Okay, understood. On the India business, you know, I understand your comment in terms of, you know, trying to broad-base our presence. You know, we are also adding MR. If I were to look at, you know, the profitability of India business, you know, are we able to improve the profitability of India business, or is a lot of that growth also requiring us to increase investment, given the competitive intensity in the market?
We are hoping to improve, and we are improving our profitability, Neha. The reality is that in India, you know, our experience is that an addition of a rep in India leads to a payback within a 6 to 9-month period It's not that long as a, you know, as a thing. I don't think the investment India is as investment heavy in terms of trying to get the incremental rupee of sales.
Understood.
There is also a product mix in India that we focus on so as we continue to increase the chronic portfolio. That will also have a positive momentum to your profitability.
Understood. Ashish, in your opening comments, you mentioned, I think, provisions that were included in the quarter. You know, could you just throw some color on that? Or, you know, is this meaningful provision that we're talking about? Where exactly is it included?
Yeah. You see, I think, you know, every quarter we have certain provisions on account of either expiries or, you know, those provisions continue to be there. I think, only, you know, some one-off could be, you know, we had some recall in the U.S. market. You know, the recall cost has also been provided for in this quarter.
This is not the Advair recall that happened recently?
No, not Albuterol. It was an Albuterol recall.
I mean, Albuterol recall. Sorry, my bad.
Absolutely. We have made some estimates for it.
Understood. Okay, thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mr. Krishnendu Saha from Quantum AMC. Please go ahead, sir.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking the question. Just quickly again, on the U.S. front, how many launches did we have this year to understand the extremely, like, 230 large amount we ever had so far? How many launches did we have last year, that does contribute a high amount for this Q1 with the launches, heavy launches last year, besides the huge launches?
Actually, you know, if you look at our portfolio strategy, it is not predicated on necessarily the large number of launches. I think over the last two years, our average will be sub 10 in each year.
Right.
You know, we go for ones which are meaningful, which we think are meaningful. Some of them don't turn out to be meaningful because the market competitive environment has changed. Of the seven or eight that we have launched in the last year, my guess is that about three to four of them have been very meaningful for us, and that's how we'd like to look at it. If we file 15 products a year, and we have the opportunity to launch between 10 to 15, you know, 30% to 40% of them should be fairly meaningful launches, which bend our trajectory upwards.
Sure. Okay. All right. Just, just a little bit on the, which the Pfizer plant, we don't, I don't think we can take any advantage of the Pfizer plant being affected by the tornado, typhoon or whatever it was in the U.S., right?
Yeah. I think obviously, there's a lot in the press on the Pfizer facility.
Yeah.
I think the issue, obviously, you know, it's my opinion that no one facility can step up immediately. We have also heard that, you know, there seems to be some amount of impact to their stock holding as well. Therefore, you know, it's. We are waiting for more details. If there's anything that needs to be done to step up to supply, we will, but we do not have explicit details on which product families are needed immediately.
Oh, okay. You don't have any idea as to how many products would overlap or something like that?
We have some rough idea, but there is no official intimation of a shortage for any of those products as yet.
Right. Could come sooner or later. We have the wherewithal to handle this in the future. That's what I understand.
Yeah. I would just say we have the wherewithal, but it's from Goa, and Goa right now is from-
Yeah, I see. I see. Yeah, I forgot that. Yes, but, just, on the Abraxane part, it's all dependent on the site transfer now. Is this going to get pushed over a little bit to 2026 or 2025, 2045?
No, no, I think we are looking at it in the later this year or early next year, actually. I don't think we are looking at this beyond that.
I see. Last question, just on the holistic side, I suppose our consumer health is INR 385 crores, around, roughly around 14% of the revenue. How do we see that basket? How do we... What do we concentrate on in the next? When I look at your portfolio, what do we see? How do we increase? I'm trying to, mostly I'm trying to understand which basket do we address to increase women health, a little bit of infant care. What do we do next to get that? If you could also speak about a little bit, we have a lot of investments in mRNA, CAR-T, how are the biosimilars and so on, so with the high-end stuff. How do we see the investment?
Do we do balance sheet investments, or do we do, what you call, by ourselves? Though we know some investments are there, I think for some time. That's it. Thanks.
See, I think there are 2, 3 buckets of investment. Towards the end, you talked about mRNA, et cetera. Those are for the future. We continue to make some option investments, just to make sure that we continue to have our foot in the door in the science and have a commercial right over those products.
Okay.
On, just to respond to your earlier question on CHL, which is our consumer business. I think we're seeing. Actually, we are very excited about that business, because that's a business which we realize, that more people want to stay well longer than they are sick. This is a business that allows people to be able to do that. We think the categories we are in, which is pain, the category that we're in which is rehydrating solids, rehydrating liquids, you know, cold and flu, cold and cough, these are amazing categories to be in. Over a period of time, we will open a franchise here for women and mothers and child. We think that that's a big segment as well as skin care. Our objective is not to be centric to just one brand. If you look at our portfolio, you know, we want to be well diversified here because this is a branding game, and not be dependent solely on a single product or portfolio.
... it's going to be the doctor approach, right? Still.
Not necessarily, not necessarily.
Okay.
This will be bit advertising, and wherever a doctor support is needed, it will be provided by other constituents of the One India business.
Sorry, last question: How much is Trade Generics products as a % of revenue?
Sorry, could you repeat? How much is trade generics?
As a percentage of revenue, Indian revenue.
I'm not sure we're giving that level of detail. I can tell you that, you know, overall, the market is about, you know, 25%-30% of the total Indian pharmaceutical market.
Yeah. Thanks a lot. Thanks for that.
Thank you.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from the line of Mr. Vinu from Elara Capital. Please go ahead, sir.
Hi, good evening, and congrats on a great set of numbers. Umang, you said between now and the launch of Advair, you don't expect any incremental competition. What is the scene with Abraxane? I'm asking this specifically because I see that Teva got an approval recently, but I'm not sure if they have launched.
The Teva was, to some extent, the first filer on this product, on nab-paclitaxel. We have not heard of their presence in the market as yet. I think it's a phased launch that will probably happen over a period of time.
Okay. Possibly they will be there in the market when you come-
Yes.
get in. Okay. Do you have any... What's the scene on the market right now in terms of the one or two AGs in the market? What sort of share they have taken? Do you have any update?
Yeah. Our understanding is we know that the market is supply-constrained, therefore, nobody seems to be getting enough amount of product. That's the position right now. The AGs are probably selling what they are getting and not more than that.
Got it. Second, there's this product in which you have a filing in generic Dulera, that is mometasone plus formoterol. Is there any update? Do you expect any launch in the next 12 or 18 months?
Is your question specific to Europe or US?
US.
I'm not sure we have that product in our portfolio, Vinu.
Okay. Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from the line of Mr. Kunal Randeria from Nuvama. Please go ahead, sir.
Hi, good evening. Umang, you mentioned that a combination of factors that led to the U.S. growth, right? Would one of the factors be higher primary sales than secondary sales? By that, I mean, wholesalers accumulating more stock because of fear of shortage.
No, I don't think so, because our, you know, we do our regular audit processes for chargebacks, and inventory in trade is an input into that validation, and we haven't seen inventory holding going up.
Got it. Got it. Secondly, of the 12% growth, India, would be sort of fair to understand that the Galvus, you know, contribution could be around 2% or so?
The new product?
Yeah, yeah, the new product which you acquired. Yeah.
Yeah. Okay. I mean, overall, new products will be, I think, 2 odd percent. I think Galvus would be slightly less than that.
Got it. Got it. One more second squeeze, and, you know, you mentioned on Abraxane that the market supply some constrained. I think it's a bit strange. Apotex has got some decent enough share in the market, then again, the share has completely fallen and, you know, the innovator has clawed back almost the entire market. Maybe could you throw some more light on that?
Actually, I don't know what specifically is happening, but we can only hear. You know, we only hear routinely from the buying channels in the US, and I think what we've heard is that periodically there's been product that the AG can sell, then product that the brand can sell, then product again that the AG sells. It seems to suggest that, you know, it seems to suggest that supply is constrained.
Okay, got it. Thank you very much. All the best.
Thank you.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from the line of Tarang Agrawal from Old Bridge Capital. Please go ahead, sir.
Hi, good evening. Thank you for your time, and congratulations on an extremely strong set of numbers. Two questions from my side. You know, in the wake of developments in the US, are you witnessing any changes, you know, in your interaction with your customers? There seems to be a heightened apprehension around supply shortages. While shortages are cyclical, their impact seems acute, especially in some specific therapies. Is it resulting in some sort of a structural change in the operating environment? Just wanted to get your sense. That's one. The second, you know, the cash pile, you know, is accumulating quite nicely, about INR 6,000 crores, and there is reasonable visibility, in terms of how the business, especially in the States, would track.
How should we see the deployment of this, some broad, you know, areas where we could see this deployment? Thank you.
I think on the deployment front, I can take that question first. I think we do see growth opportunities in India. I think if you want to capture that opportunity, organic has its own limitations, therefore, we can constantly evaluate inorganic opportunities in India, which actually pays off well, and it is within our expectation of hurdle rate. India, we will continue to look at opportunities. Even in South Africa, which is our core market, we want to grow to number one position, and of course, within the hurdle rate that we follow, the cost of capital for the country. I think the focus will be to do acquisitions, small acquisitions though, in South Africa
In U.S. as well, wherever there are white space, wherever we find some interesting products, in our core strength, which is respiratory and some of the other portfolio as well, we would look at opportunities there as well. Inorganic will play a big role in fund deployment within the cost of capital. Other than that, there is CapEx, there is increased R&D, there is, you know, and of course, we constantly discuss at the board level on how to best utilize the capital. Sorry, your first question was, if you could repeat, Paroma.
Basically, I wanted to understand if the shortages that we are seeing in the market, while the shortages are transient, but is it, you know, resulting in some kind of, more, longer sort of a structural change in the market, in the way, maybe the channel is behaving or, you know, your interaction with your customers?
I think they want certainty of supply, and I think that's a key thing. You know, for a person who's a, you know, is our customer, not having supply is their biggest nightmare. Obviously, they want more certainty of supply and, you know, and obviously, quality supply. That's what we're hearing more of. I think, yes, maybe there is a little bit of realignment to get more sustainable supply.
Does it translate into some sort of a change in the manner in which they're contracting, you know, versus what they used to do previously, only maybe perhaps on the pricing? Are they willing to pay a little extra, maybe, for a sustainable supply or, you know, not letting a new customer, new vendor come in that easily to supply if a sustainable player is already operating?
We haven't really seen that, in our interactions as yet.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take the next question from the line of Mr. Abdukader Puranwala from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead, sir.
Yeah, hi. Thank you for the opportunity. A couple of questions on the India front. This quarter, we highlighted that the chronic therapies have been growing. Would it be possible to quantify the amount of field force, what do we have on the chronic versus on the acute side?
I think about 80%-- 75%-80% of our work, of our people are on the chronic side. 20% or so are on the acute side. Chronic for us includes respiratory. I think that's something you need to keep in mind. Broadly, we have about 10,000 of people, 10,000 to 10 and a half thousand of people. Within that, respiratory is, you know, the largest share of that in that sense. Acute will be roughly about 2 and a half thousand or 3,000 people.
Understood. 2nd, on the consumables in the India front, this quarter, again, on the revenue and margin front, I think we've done a phenomenal job. I just wanted to again understand here, that is this due to some bit of a seasonality, wherein we saw some, you know, extended summer period in June, or, you know, how does the full year expectation is? Earlier we were planning, you know, we are factoring a meeting for the entire fiscal 2024, but we have achieved that in Q1. Are we internally raising our, you know, margin estimates for the consumer business when we talk about this 22%-23% shift, what is probably happening, apart from, you know, what the performance in the US has been?
Just 1 minute. Again, we only got parts of your question because the line was back. Let me try and, you know, let me try and just highlight what you wanted to know. The first was the seasonality in the consumer Healthcare business. We lost you where it was 22%-23%. I didn't quite get the connection with the 22%, 23%. Can you please explain that?
This 100 basis points improvement in your margin guidance for 2024, I mean, is that factoring, you know, from the uptick what you have seen in India this quarter? That will largely continue for the quarter ahead, along with U.S., or it's largely U.S. which is raising that confidence?
Okay, thank you. The confidence is raised by all our markets, actually. It's, you know, even though we may think that the percentage increase because the US and India do better, they are larger businesses. Frankly, if South Africa does better, our margin profile improves dramatically because the South Africa business gets a tremendous leverage from top line growth. It's all our businesses that raises our confidence profile of our EBITDA trajectory. On consumer business, we have a large category in oral rehydrating solution, the ORS. I think this time, the summer in, you know, unfortunately, only peaked sometime in the north in some part of June, because the rains came earlier and there were rains throughout the summer. Actually, we have seen a slightly more muted quarter than we had expected in our consumer healthcare business.
Having said that, quarter one, quarter two are always the largest in this business. You know, we've not had a full season, this time, the way we would have liked to see it in the consumer business. Despite that, it has shown the type of growth it has.
Got it. One final if I may, this is again a follow-up from, you know, what our earlier participant was asking. When we're talking about the supply chain rebalancing, from a volume front, you know, when we see players are exiting the market, incremental flow of these volumes, I mean, how was that getting captured? Is it, you know, that, the buyer groups have been trying to be a little conservative now, and, you know, they're not assigning the entire or the lion's share of the volumes to one, you know, one supplier alone, and this is getting scattered, or, you know, the trend largely continues to be the same, that, you know, the largest guy keeps on becoming larger here?
No, I think it's a diversification of sources for sure. I think that's happening. At the same time, I think the discussion is also on longevity of the contract. I think both of those issues are happening at play.
Sure. Got it. Wish you all the best. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mr. Shrikant Akolkar from Asian Markets Securities. Please go ahead, sir.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. Congratulations on the good set of numbers. My questions are pertaining to the price erosion. Can you please provide your current thinking on the sustainability of the currently easing price environment, as well as the shortages in the U.S. generic?
You know, I think we've answered that question, but I'll repeat it. I think, we see that the price erosion is kind of stabilizing now because of the number of people who have exited the markets and the, you know, and the pending restructuring that's happening in the US-based companies. The shortages are leading to some of that. Some of that is being led by the rebalancing of trade channels. Yes, pricing pressure is abating a bit.
I mean, for the rest of the calendar year or fiscal year, how do we see that? Is it, will it remain in the current, currently easing environment, or do you think that there is a possibility the higher supplies would come in and the price erosion would go back to the normal levels that we have seen in the last year?
I'm not sure we can. I can only talk about the current quarter, because, you know, this is a trend that responds to the number of players and the type of launches. In the current quarter, we think it may be like quarter one. I can't give a view of what will happen in quarter three and quarter four.
Understood. One more question on the price erosion, is that, is it possible for you to break down the U.S. portfolio in couple of buckets and provide some color on what proportion of your U.S. portfolio is seeing price erosion or is benefiting because of the shortage situation?
I'm not sure we give that level of detail. I think we look at an overall number of price erosion, and we factor based on that. You know, which used to be at a higher level of you know, higher level of high single and double digits, is slightly reduced a bit now. It's very difficult to characterize which family sees an up, you know, an increase now, because it's a factor of mix, it's a factor of price adjustment. That's why we don't give clarity in that regard.
Okay. Okay, last question on Albuterol in error recall recently that we have done. What is our challenge, and have we resolved this issue currently?
Yeah, the challenge was for a specific number of batches, and I think those we have recalled. I don't think we saw the same issue in other batches. We've done an analysis, and we feel confident about it.
All right. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take the next question from the line of Mr. Krishnendu Saha from Quantum AMC. Please go ahead, sir.
Hi. Just thanks again. Just a clarification, Abraxane, it is not our own developer. We call it from someone, yeah, and just sketchy about that product.
No, no, it is the Cipla product, Abraxane is ours.
Sure. Thanks, ma'am. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for the day. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Ajinkya Pandharkar for closing comments. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, all. Thank you for joining us for the earnings call. If you have any questions, please reach out to us at investor.relations@cipla.com. Thank you, wishing you a very good day ahead.
Thank you. On behalf of Cipla Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.