Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Earnings Conference Call of Dalmia Bharat Limited for the Quarter and Half Year ended 30th September 2024 . Please note that this conference call will be for 60 minutes, and for the duration of this conference call, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode. This conference call is being recorded, and the transcript may be put on the website of the company.
After the management discussion, there is an opportunity for you to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode.
Before I hand over the conference to the management, I would like to remind you that certain statements made during the course of this call may not be based on historical information or facts and may be forward-looking statements. These statements are based on expectations and projections and may involve a number of risks and uncertainties such that the actual outcome may differ materially from those suggested by such statements.
On the call, we have with us Mr. Puneet Dalmia, Managing Director and CEO, Dalmia Bharat Limited, Mr. Dharmender Tuteja, CFO, and Mr. Rajiv Bansal, President and Chief Transformation Officer, and the other management of the company. I would now like to hand the conference call over to Ms. Aditi Mittal, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you so much. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Dalmia Bharat's earnings call, Quarter two and H1 FY 2025. We declared our results on Saturday, and the presentation and the results have all been uploaded on our new website and can be downloaded from there. With this, I will now hand over the call to Mr. Dalmia for his opening remarks.
Thank you, Aditi. Good morning, everyone. Let me begin with an overview of the quarter, and then Dharmender will take you through our operational and financial metrics. India remains the fastest growing economy in the world, and I'm confident that as India grows, cement sector, being a proxy, will continue to flourish.
While the industry's long-term prospects are promising, there have been some short-term blips as the demand in the first half of this fiscal twenty-five has been quite muted and below our own internal estimation. While H1 growth in the cement sector is expected to be around 2-3% based on analyst estimates, I believe that H2 will see a good bounce back and could grow around 8% Y-O-Y, with a full year growth around 6%.
The reasons for the same, in my view, are as follows: infrastructure spending of the government is only at 27% of the budgeted allocation till August 2024. This percentage in FY 2024 was at 39% for the first five months. There is no reason to believe that the government will not spend the budgeted amount given the robust collections. This would mean almost double the monthly run rate of infrastructure spending by the government as compared to the first five months.
The pent-up demand because of slower than expected demand in H1, for reasons already discussed earlier, are also likely to add to the demand growth being better in H2. The real estate cycle is on a multi-year upswing, and we expect a strong pickup in the construction activity in H2. Private CapEx has also started to gain momentum and is expected to pick up further.
I continue to believe that the larger players would outperform the other players in terms of growth, as we have seen in the last many years. This will only accelerate further given that there is consolidation in the sector. We at Dalmia have laid a strong foundation to grow volumes by at least one and a half times of the sector.
Since the industry witnessed a weak demand environment in the first half of the year, it led to a decline in the overall industry utilization, which was already running at 67% in FY 2024. As a result of this, the industry saw a weak pricing environment and saw prices come down. I believe that with the expectation of a strong demand revival in H2, prices should start moving up from here on, though the competitive intensity may not allow much gains on this front.
On the cost side, we continue to be one of the lowest cost producers in the sector. Coming to the quarterly performance of our company during Q2 of FY 2025, I believe we have delivered a healthy volume growth of 8.4% Y-O-Y, in spite of the discontinuation of the Jaypee tolling arrangement. On the capacity side, we are currently at 46.6 million tons and on track to reach 49.5 million tons by the end of financial year 2025.
Our 2.4 million tons of Northeast and 0.5 million tons of Bihar expansion should get commissioned in H2. With regards to our future expansion of reaching 75 million tons by FY 2028, I committed in the last earnings call that we will detail out the plan in the next 12 months.
We are actively working on several plans and would announce that within the next nine months. I will now request Dharmender to take you through the detailed financial performance of the quarter gone by. Thank you.
Thank you, Puneet. Good morning, everyone. Let me take you through the key aspects of our performance. As Puneet has mentioned, our volume grew by 8.4% Y-O-Y to 6.1 million tons during the quarter. However, revenues have declined by 2% Y-O-Y, to INR 3,087 crores, due to a sharp decline in cement prices.
Our overall trade mix stood at about 63% during the quarter. The cement prices declined during Q2 due to weak demand scenario, particularly in South and Eastern markets. These markets saw a decline of 5%-7% Q-O-Q, and about 10%-12% on Y-O-Y basis. Decreased trade mix also contributed to fall in NSR. As Puneet said, we expect these prices to improve in H2 with rebound of demand, though the competitive intensity may cap any significant gains on this account.
Moving on to the cost items, our raw material cost during Q2 increased marginally by 0.4%, to INR 789 per ton of cement production on a Y-O-Y basis. As we have discontinued the cement mining operations at JP, our overall cost now doesn't include any cost of purchased material.
The power and fuel cost declined 11.3% Y-O-Y, to INR 1,012 per ton of cement production, mainly due to a twenty-six dollar decline in the fuel consumption cost, to about $101 on a Y-O-Y basis. On a Q-O-Q basis, it declined by about $5 per ton. Fuel cost during the quarter stood at INR 1.36 per kcal. Our share of renewable energy has also improved to 39% during the quarter.
We are working to get additional cost saving of INR 150-INR 200 per ton from our different initiatives. In line with this, we continue to put renewable power capacities across our various locations. We have commissioned 16-megawatt captive solar power plant at Sattur, taking our total RE capacity to 202 megawatt. As we speak, some smaller captive RE capacities are also under execution.
Besides these, we have entered into multiple renewable power agreements under the group captive arrangement, which will secure about 151 MW capacity of renewable power through solar and wind energy. This is in addition to 127 MW capacity signed earlier, and as already mentioned in our Q1 earnings call. In total, we have signed 278 MW of long-term renewable power agreements under the group captive arrangements so far.
The commissioning of these renewable power plants is expected to begin from next quarter onwards, and by end of FY 2025, we should have operational RE capacity of 341 MW, including 128 MW from group captive arrangements. With this, we expect to exit FY 2025 with about 45% RE power share in our overall power mix on consumption basis. During the quarter, our logistics cost increased by about 7.6% YOY, to INR 1,102 per ton, since we started servicing central markets from our eastern plants. The quarter also had only one month of busy season surcharge waiver, as against two months in the same quarter last year. The employee cost during the quarter declined by 3% Y-O-Y, to INR 219 crore.
However, other expenses rose 15.7% YOY, to INR 546 crores, primarily due to higher number of shutdowns of plants and increase in packing and material handling costs linked to the increase in sales volume. Our EBITDA during the quarter declined by 27% YOY, to INR 434 crores, which works out to INR 650 on per ton basis. We accrued INR 61 crore of incentive during the quarter, while our collection during the quarter was INR 20 crores. However, in early October, we have received incentive about INR 46 crores. Our incentive outstanding on 30th September was INR 709 crores. For FY 2025, we expect total incentive approvals and collections of INR 300 crores.
The depreciation during the quarter declined by INR 65 crores to INR 336 crores on a YoY basis, as previous year had additional depreciation of INR 40 crores pertaining to certain components of plant and equipment, which were replaced as part of our overall de-bottlenecking projects. The FY 2025 depreciation is expected to be in the range of INR 1,300-INR 1,350 crores.
Our CapEx during H1 stood at about INR 1,386 crores. During the full year, we expect to spend about INR 3,000-INR 3,300 crores, which is largely towards capacity expansion, including land for future projects and certain cost reduction projects, including renewable energy and coal blocks.
During the quarter, we have received final tranche of INR 320 crores, along with interest from the divestment of the DBRL shares. As of 30th September, our gross and net debt marginally increased to INR 4,784 crores and INR 644 crores respectively. Hence, our net debt to EBITDA stood at 0.25 times. We believe that our strong balance sheet positions us well for the next phase of expansion. Lastly, the board has declared an interim dividend of INR 4 per share. With this, I would now like to open the floor for questions. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star and two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you, sir. So, in the opening remarks, we have said that in the second half, we are looking at 8% volume growth for industry. Just trying to understand for us in the 1H, we have done close to 7.2%, but for us, how we look at the second half in terms of the volume growth? Because if we now remove the JP volume, which was there in last year, in the second half, is it fair to say that we will be just doing a 1% or 2% kind of a growth in the second half, so net-net for FY 2025, we will be having a close to 3.5%-4% max kind of a volume growth?
We have already said that, you know, we have laid a strong foundation to grow at one and a half times the industry growth, and I think we stick to that guide.
Okay. In terms of the pricing, sir, so currently, the prices, if one looks at versus the Q2 average, how much they are up?
Yeah, the month to date, October, prices are on the same lines as the Q2 average.
Okay. On the CapEx front, so particularly the capacity, sir, just trying to understand that, we are speaking to 75 million ton by FY 2028. So additionally close to 25 million ton. So roughly, if somebody looks at in terms of broadly, even if $60-$70, then also 14,000-15,000 crore kind of a CapEx. So if you can help us, so from FY 2025, you have already mentioned, 2026, 2027, 2028 also, we will most likely to see the similar kind of a CapEx, 3,500, and ultimately that will keep on increasing our debt rate. So is it a fair understanding?
We are planning that our net debt to EBITDA should not cross 2:1. As we detail out the plan for this 75 million capacity, location by location, we'll also give clear guidance on the debt levels. But I don't think that should be a concern, as we have articulated our capital allocation policy, that we'll try to keep our net debt to EBITDA up to 2:1 only.
Just last data point, if you can share premium share, blending ratio, CC ratio, railroad mix, and lead distance for Q2?
Okay. Our CC ratio is for this quarter, 1.64.
Okay.
The blended cement sale is 82.7%. The lead distance this quarter is 280, because we increased supplies from eastern plants to central region, and rail is 13% and 85% road.
And the premium, sir?
Yeah. Premium is 22.4%.
Okay. Thank you, sir. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Muraka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, good morning. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on CapEx. So I believe you've cut down the CapEx guidance from about 3,350-4,000 earlier, to 3,000-3,300 now, and in the 1H, you spent even lower than 100. Now, my understanding is that on Northeast, the guided CapEx is about 3,600 crores with commissioning of Q4 FY 2025. So are we running behind schedule on the Northeast project? And could you just refresh the timeline of both grinding and clinker commissioning in Northeast?
So clinker, as we said, will come in the FY 2026. We expect it around next year. And the grinding is also will be coming in this current financial year in H2, most likely around December or January.
How much is already spent on the project?
So out of the current year, as I said, about 70% is towards this. So close to about INR 1,000 crore is already spent on the grinding side, and grinding as well as this in the current year.
... And nothing spent on clinker yet, is it?
The clinker is also in process. So both combined, I'm saying that last year also we had spent something, and the current year is about thousand. So it is on track, in line with what we had planned.
Okay. And on the expansion side, like, the debottlenecking projects of 0.9 million ton on clinker, I think are still pending. I believe so it was expected or guided that by Q2, I think these will come in. So by when now can we expect that to come in, by Q4, something like that?
Yeah, that is planned in H2. Work is already in process.
Sure. Lastly, on just in the central region, while the tolling is over, so I believe you've gained certain footprint already. So will you continue to service that market, with the dealer network you've built, or what's the plan there?
Yes, we'll continue to serve this market, because whatever network has been created, that we would like to maintain, and ultimately, in the medium term, we should have our own capacity, even if the JPE plants are not there.
How much would be sold in that region right now?
The regional data we are not sharing, so please bear with us.
Got it and there is no tolling of JPE, right? Zero tolling in Q2.
In this quarter, yes.
Sure. Thank you. That's all.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sumangal Nivatia, with Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, yeah, good morning. Sorry, I got disconnected, so I'm not sure if this is already asked. So I just want to know, what is the fuel cost in rupees per KL, and what is the guidance, given pet coke coal prices are on a declining trend, how much of further reduction are we expecting in the coming quarters?
So, Sumangal, this quarter we had a consumption of about $101 per ton, and the purchase is also on the same levels. And as we speak, the spot levels are slightly down, closer to about $93. So we may expect marginal reduction in the upcoming quarter. And blended fuel cost came down to 1.36 per KL.
Understood. Understood. And on the overall renewable power mix, I read will be 39%. Is it possible to share what sort of expectation do we have for, say, FY 2026, 2027 individually, and what sort of cost saving should we build in, given the higher share of renewable?
Currently, we are at 39%. By year-end, we expect it to reach closer to about 45%, and for INR 150 to INR 200 savings which we're targeting from various cost initiatives, so that targets about savings from the uncertain as well as logistics and uncertain savings will primarily come from renewable power as well as coal blocks, so we can expect about INR 50 per ton savings in the current year, another INR 50 savings in the FY 2026, and another INR 200 or so in FY 2027, by when all the coal blocks will be operational.
Understood. Understood. That's very clear. Thank you, and all the best.
Thank you, Sumangal.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah with Investec. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. So a couple of questions. First is, in the initial remarks, you indicated that we expect pricing to inch up in the second half, subject to competitive intensity. The question is, what is our strategy to combat competitive intensity?
See, basically, it's aligning our goals with the goals of the dealer. So it's all about relationship management with the dealers. Market continues to remain dynamic and competitive, so our response time to the market dynamics will be very fast, so that we continue to do this. And also we'll be continuing to increase our share in the dealer segment, as well as when we are pricing the products to the customers, we'll ensure that it takes into account the finer nuances of the dealer mix as well as the incentive strategies.
I think-
What's your suggestion?
I think, long term, we want to maintain our cost leadership, we want to invest in our brand, we want to, you know, deepen our distribution, and we want to improve our service. So I think there will be, these things will be the, a continuous journey throughout, no matter what happens, because it will just improve the, you know, our ability to service our customers and add value to their businesses.
So I would just say that, you know, there will be times when industry prioritizes, you know, market share over margins, and there will be times when industry will prioritize margins over market share. This happens in every industry. Our industry is no exception.
And I think, you know, this is the time to, you know, improve our efficiencies and, you know, just stay very, very focused on execution and improve our investment in brand and distribution. So I think that's just going to be our strategy, market by market, and just, you know, continue to execute. So put our heads down and continue to execute, you know, well. That's it.
Sir, thanks for the answer. Just a related one. You indicated, we will align ourselves with the dealers. I think it's probably visible, given the discount increase that we have seen in FY 2024 annual report or FY 2023. It's a pretty steep bump, almost 11%. And it's taken up in line with the highest in the industry. And if I look at the same variable, it's like 13% CAGR over the last five years.
So when we say basically focus will be on cost, how should we look at incentives and discounts? Because this number has been ballooning up very, very sharply, impacting profitability. So are we saying that, we will scout for market share in the interim if it means, staying, playing along with the dealers to ensure that we maintain our market foothold?
I think the strategy will be different market by market, and I think you know there are markets where our you know cost to serve is very low and our market share is you know not very high. So I think in those markets, we will prioritize a gain of market share.
There are markets where you know we serve, but in the long term you know we may not be that competitive, but you know in the short term we may be serving those markets. So in those markets we may you know just look at optimizing prices a little bit more rather than just go all out for market share. So I think there will be a strategy which will be different market by market, micro market by micro market. And I think we are looking at what's the best way to, you know, balance volume gains, you know, while preserving our margins.
Sure, that's useful, and if I just take one more. Sir, you have indicated INR 150-INR 200 per ton. I think in Sumangal's question, you did dissect it broadly for renewable coal and logistics. Is it possible to give exact numbers over here?
Logistics will be about INR 50, and balance INR 100, INR 100-INR 150 will come from coal blocks as well as renewable.
Sure. This is very helpful. Thank you so much. All the very best. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Satyadeep Jain with Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you. Just, first question would be on the medium-term growth. You outlined 75 million tons by 2028. Just want to see, you're going to announce the expansions in nine months. In nine months, can we assume that the entire land acquisition approvals all will be taken care of, so it's just ordering? How are you thinking of de-risking from here to ordering in the next nine months?
I think, I told on the last earnings call also, we are in the process of getting permissions and buying land. And, you know, this is a, you know, parallel process. Work is going on. And, you know, we will detail out the plan site by site, location by location, along with timelines, within the next nine months. So the work is on. I think that's the best way to de-risk it, get permits, buy land, and make sure that we prioritize our sites based on strategic attractiveness and, you know, long-term IR.
Okay. Just second question on the central strategy. You're catering to this market, I believe, all the way from Odisha. Are there any particular pockets that you're catering to? And the strategy would be to continue to incur marketing expense, look at building out the entire network there for the next two, three years till you set up your own plant there. Is that fair to assume? And these markets are being catered to, all the way from Odisha right now.
Yes, I think it's fair to assume that. Dharmender, do you want to add to it?
Yeah. Earlier we had great network in UP, primarily closer to Allahabad as well as Varanasi. So those markets are continuing to be served. And of course, the expenditure of the marketing, brand building, et cetera, is in line with the volume of sales which we are incurring there, so that it is, the costs are in line with the revenue we make from these areas.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pavas Pethia with Aditya Birla Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Just want to understand how sacrosanct is the 75 million ton number for you, and what will make you change this postponement of giving the realization still remains of 70% for the entire fund?
I think I've you know already shared that you know we think that we are gonna build 100 million tons by financial year 2031. Our medium-term plan is to build 75 million tons by financial year 2028, and if let us say there is some massive blip in the industry either upside or downside we will always review our you know plan and pace it along with you know how we see the industry shaping up, so you know these plans are more or less firm, but I think if there is a you know massive shock micro shock we'll have to adjust to those shocks and pace the plan accordingly.
Sure. And secondly, on this INR 3,000 crore plus CapEx number for this year, will the similar trend continue in FY 2026, 2027 and beyond?
So with the known announced expansion plans, the next year CapEx should be about twenty-five hundred or so. And, of course, when we announce the next line of growth CapEx, then we give more visibility about next two years' CapEx guidance.
So if I have to strip out the maintenance part, now what will be that number?
It's close to about INR 250-300 crores per annum.
Sure. Thanks. That's all.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Prateek Kumar with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hello. Yeah, good morning, sir. My first question is on the pricing. So, you reported like around 5-5.5% drop in pricing quarter on quarter. Do you think is this worse than industry in your markets or like is it in line? Because your volume growth is faster than industry probably, so had the higher volumes come at the expense of much worse pricing?
I think it's hard for us to say... Raminder, let me just handle this, and you can add to it.
Sure.
I think it's hard for us to say, because, you know, I, there are areas where we've repositioned our brand, and where we are able to charge a higher price. But this quarter, our non-trade mix has gone up, which typically sells at a lower price than the B2C business. You know, so there is a definite impact, because of volume, because of the segment mix. But overall, I think, you know, in many markets, we have been able to reposition the brand and get a slightly higher price than what we were getting earlier in the trade segment. Dharmender, please, do you want to add to?
Yeah. Our reading was that, our decline is in line with the market, decline of prices. Even South and Eastern markets have shown much bigger declines that have translated into our overall decline.
Okay. Related question on non-trade mix on higher, so in a market environment where generally the government demand has gone down, we are trying to increase market share in non-trade segment. That is also probably weighing on prices. That'd be right?
Quarter to quarter, it may have some changes, but we continue to remain focused on increasing our trade mix. And, gradually, of course, you'll see that reduction rebuilding.
Okay. And another question regarding is like in your remarks earlier, you said about the market share or margins quarter to quarter or year to year. So I mean, we have historic a few quarters back, we talked about EBITDA margin of around 11 hundred-12 hundred. We're currently at 650 in this quarter. What are the kind of margins, at least for near term, when we talk about this market share versus margins? This year, what kind of margins we might be looking at,
From quarter to quarter, it's very hard to predict, but if you look at H1, it's somewhere in the region of 750-800. And I personally believe that prices should move up a little bit gradually. You know, so I would think that, you know, maybe this is sustainable.
Sorry, your voice was inaudible. What should be sustainable?
I'm saying that, you know, if you look at H1 numbers, EBITDA per ton, you know, is somewhere around...
782.
How much is it, exactly?
782.
It's INR 782. Quarter-to-quarter numbers could be volatile, but, you know, we think the prices may be slightly better in H2. And I think, nine hundred to thousand rupees, you know, at least this year, should be sustainable. And, again, it depends on, you know, how the demand also behaves. So we think that, in the long term, the guidance that we've given of 11 hundred-12 hundred should be doable. Unless there are some really macro shocks then, you know, there is, you know, like, very intense, competition for market share.
Sure, sir, I'll get back to the team. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Raashi Chopra from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Just taking on from some of the earlier questions. Do you-
I'm sorry, Raashi, there is too much of background noise on your end.
Better?
This is better. Please go ahead.
I'm just taking on from one of the earlier questions. So what was the industry volume growth for this quarter? Not the half, just in the second quarter.
I think industry, the numbers have not been reported, but we think it will be low single digit.
Okay. And, you know-
0.3%.
Yes. Okay, so similar.
I don't know. I mean, low single digit is what we think.
All right. And you've managed to obviously grow at 8%, and you've also kind of indicated that your realizations, you know, given the regions, should be similar to the rest of the peer group. So what are... And I would imagine that this will be one of the stronger growth rates, you know, within the industry, at least for this quarter. So if it was not for pricing, you know, what has been different for you?
Sorry, can you just repeat that question, please?
Can you mention that the price decline in the South and the East is 5%-7%, which is in line with the general peer group, that everyone in the south and the East should have seen similar price declines. As the industry growth is so muted, what have you done differently, if not for you know, if not for kind of reducing prices for the?
Yeah, as I said, yeah, as I said, in many markets we have repositioned our brand and we are able to charge higher prices. You know, we are also focused on improving our premium mix. It will be a journey, and again, market by market, we are reviewing our strategy, and I think we are also looking at, you know, which are the best markets that, you know, we should serve and just increase our share in those markets. These are the three things that we are, you know, looking at market by market.
Okay. And you had also mentioned that, you know, Dalmia will grow at one and a half times the industry. So this year, so you are confident of getting to a 9% volume growth for the year?
Yeah.
Given the 6% growth. Okay, and just one last question, the EBITDA per ton, like you said, quarter to quarter is hard to get. But you mentioned that, you know, this year, a thousand should not be, you know, a thousand should be doable. Was that for the second half, or is that for the average for the year?
I'm saying the first half is 780. You know, so we expect prices to move up a little bit in H2 compared to H1. So, you know, the blended number should be probably in the range of, you know, 900-1,000 is what I think. But, it depends on, you know, how demand behaves and, you know, what is the competitive intensity in the market.
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pulkit Patni with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question. Just one question. In terms of the Central India expansion, whatever we had invested, now that the tolling arrangement is off, is there any possible write-offs that we may have to take in future? Or because we are trying to expand that organically, we don't think there should be any need for us to make any of those adjustments to our books?
See, last quarter we have done some impairment of, exposure which we had on JP. That is, I think, about 113 crores. So we had taken the full impact, which we thought would have arisen. So I don't think anything further should come.
In terms of the manpower we hired there, et cetera, et cetera, so they'll all be used organically for us to grow in that region. Is that the right understanding?
That is right.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Indrajit Agarwal with CLSA. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you for the chance. Sir, at 49 odd million tons, even if we grow one and a half times industry, by FY 2026, we will have closer to 66%-67% utilization. So do you think the focus should be to get the utilization up first before focusing on the next leg of CapEx? Because the industry anyway, we can still grow and a half times industry with the current capacity, at least for the next 3-4 years or so. And secondly, on that vein, would we be losing a reasonably high amount of money in central region right now? I mean, so broadly, what proportion of your volumes would have been central in this quarter?
So I think, you know, there are markets in which, our capacity is almost sold out, and I think we'll have to add new capacity. There is also a lead time in adding capacity, and, you know, it could take around, you know, two years plus.
And, finally, I also think that, you know, there will be... We have a ambition of being a pan-India player, so we might add capacity in new regions where we don't exist today. So I think this decision will be taken in, you know, keeping in mind where our utilizations are higher and, you know, our, ambition, to be a pan-India player.
And I think secondly, on, in terms of, you know, regional volumes and how much we are selling in which market and what's the profitability, please bear with us. We don't share that data.
Sure, makes sense. Sir, lastly, given the current rate of expansion gets over, let's say, by mid-FY 2026, would we have sufficient clinker if we want to operate the entire 49 million at 100% utilization?
Yes, we do, and we'll have to increase our CC ratio in some markets, which we are already doing.
Sure. Thank you. That's all from my side.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rahul Gupta from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you for taking my question. So Dalmia, sir, I have just one medium-term industry question for you. You have talked about industry prices being weak, not just now, but for some time now. If industry prices don't move up steadily, given competitive intensity, does that risk capacity expansion for the industry? Or do you think that capacity expansion could come, but at the expense of ROICs? Any views over here?
Look, I think at current prices, you know, no investments can be justified, and you know, whether you look at organic or inorganic growth, if you believe that the prices are going to remain at this level, we can't justify any investment.
I think we all believe that structurally, the industry is, you know, very positive in, you know, in a medium to long term, and which we have outlined, like, we believe that India will grow, and if India grows, construction will grow, and there will be, you know, demand for cement, and I think the demand-supply equation. There are, while there are short-term headwinds, I think long-term demand should grow at a higher CAGR than the, you know, capacity CAGR.
So we think that demand could grow in the range of 7%-8% in the long term, and capacity probably will grow at 5%-6%. So therefore, there'll be a slight uptick in capacity utilization over the longer term. We also think that the top players are expanding faster than the smaller players, and there is increased M&A in the sector.
So the share of top four will go to 60% by financial year 2027. And I think, just with increasing consolidation and, you know, a very good long-term demand supply scenario, I think the entry barriers are rising in this business, so we can expect better pricing. But, you know, it's very hard to predict what will happen in the short term.
We've even seen, if we look at our last 10 years, 20 years of history, there has been, you know, it's a cyclical business and prices are very volatile. But if you take a 5-7 year view, it all evens out. You know, this business requires patience. This business requires not being disappointed when chips are down and not being too exuberant or arrogant when you are making too much money.
I think you have to keep balance, and you have to keep the conviction. At least that's what we've benefited from in the past, and we think that the structural positives in the sector are far better than what they were 10 years ago. We believe that it's a very attractive time for the industry.
I think without stretching the balance sheet, you know, expansion is the right way to go, while using this opportunity to tighten your belts and become more efficient, while not losing sight of long-term investments in brand building and distribution.
Thanks so much. Just to understand this better: At what capacity utilization levels do you think that pricing power comes back materially? Or how should we look at what prices it makes sense for the industry to add capacity, not thinking about near-term headwinds, or we should just forget about near-term headwinds and think about medium-term and long-term outlook for the industry, and not think about ROICs in the near term?
I think, you know, you can do the math yourself. If, like, you know, the capacity creation cost, you know, and M&A cost is in the range of, let's say, $90-$120 per ton. Let's say an average of $100. I think, the EBITDA has to be in the range of, you know, in my view, INR 1,500 per ton in the long term.
Got it. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Navin Sahadeo with ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning, and thank you for the opportunity. My question was, in the earlier comments, you said there was an increase in the non-trade share in the quarters. So could you just give details as to how much was the sequential improvement, I mean, increase, in non-trade over previous quarter?
Yeah, previous quarter we had 64%, and this quarter we have 63%, so trade has gone down by 1% and non-trade has gone up by 1%. On a Y-Y basis, this is about 5%, because last year we had 68% trade mix, now we just 63%. On a Y-Y, that's a 5% increase. On a Q-O-Q basis, 1% increase in the non-trade portion.
Sure. The reason why I'm asking this is because in the second half, if the government demand is expected to come back, which is where the infrastructure-led demand will bounce and lead to overall industry volume growth, is it fair to assume that this shift or tilt in favor of non-trade can only go up for you?
And in the same breath, is there a possibility or a rethink on our plan to venture into the OPC market of non-trade? If I'm not wrong, we are not selling, I mean, in the East, I think we hardly sell in the OPC market at all, and maybe in the South, overall blending being at around 87% odd. So is there an expectation that non-trade will go up and our share of OPC will rise? Thanks.
So I think in the short term, it's hard to predict. We are running at low capacity utilization right now, and we will see whatever, you know, is best done to you know, maximize our contribution. But I think in the long term, we are more committed to blended cements. And I think you know, we are more committed to increasing our share of trade.
Understood. Helpful. My second and last question is on the CapEx. So when you were giving a target of 75 by 2028, roughly 25 million tons is what we are likely to add with the current expansion which are on hand from 50 to 75. So is it fair to assume that from 2026- 2028, as in, in three years, the CapEx, because it's, I'm assuming it will be a mix of greenfield and brownfield, so our CapEx over these three years could be around 18,000-20,000 crore. Is that the way to look at it?
I think we don't want to give any numbers right now. We are still working on exact plans in which market, how much, and what capacity. So I think, you'll have to wait, you know, till we announce the plans.
Appreciate. Appreciate. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of Saket Kapoor from Kapoor & Company. Please go ahead. Saket, your line is unmuted, if you can unmute from your end as well. Thank you.
Yeah. Namaskar, Dhanyavad, and thank you for the opportunity. Firstly, sir, for the EBITDA pattern number, you mentioned the number of 650 also. 650 is for the second quarter, or if you could just correct me there. 782 is for the H1.
Yeah. Yes. Q2 is 650.
Okay, and the blended average is INR 782, so that was significantly higher for the first quarter.
That's right. First quarter was 900.
Okay. So when we look at our other expenses line item, that has been showing a steady up for this quarter also. So can you explain the nature of this other expense line item of INR 546 crore?
So this has gone up, from the last year or maybe from year to year also, because of the higher number of shutdowns of the plants. So the repair cost, or contractor cost, et cetera, comes in this line. And when I see last year over year, then since the volume has gone up, so there are some volume-linked costs, like packing, packing bags cost, commissions, etc , so these costs also go up accordingly.
Okay, so can you quantify the one-off line item for the repair part that was included for this quarter?
So that would be about INR 40-50 crores. But there could be shutdowns in Q3 also, but bulk comes in Q2, and then Q3 is the next one, and Q4 particularly comes down very significantly.
Right. And the utilization levels are for the entire entity was in the 60s, about 65% for the first half?
Yes.
Yes, sir, and for the industry also, what was the number? And, taking into account the anticipated CapEx spent from the government for H2, what should be likely ending the H2 in terms of capacity utilization level?
For this year, for this quarter, we had a capacity utilization of 58%, but we expect it to go up in the coming quarters because this was a seasonally weak quarter.
Yeah, industry is also, I think, currently about 67% or so.
67% is for the industry? 67 or so.
Come again, sir. 57, five seven.
No, six, six seven.
Six seven, six seven. Sir, taking into account our, the, the CapEx that we undertake and also, the other effect of the weak market, it is always good that you share your, the profit with your investors. But coming out with different payout at this point of juncture when, we are having extreme cash flow, so can you please explain, what's the thought process to, to burn money, to return cash right now, when that could be for a, a much better use than, returning that to your investors?
So for the full year, we don't think that the outlook has diminished. That is why we have not changed the trajectory of the dividend payouts. We still hope that the growth trajectory of the volume as well as profitability should continue. Accordingly, we have not downgraded the payout of the dividend.
Our capital allocation policy says that we will, you know, up to 10% of our free cash flow, we will distribute as dividends. I think we are, you know, it's in line with our capital allocation policy, which we have already outlined.
Okay. And lastly, sir, on the waste heat recovery and the alternate fuel part, what is our current fuel mix? And going ahead for, say, one to two-year timeline, how will this number shape up for waste heat recovery, that is, and the use of alternate fuel?
I think we don't share that data, you know, granularly. But we've given you our, RE power mix, and we've also shared, you know, our overall fuel cost.
Yes.
So on the RE power, I said that, we are currently at 9%. By year-end, we expect to go up to about 45%, and by next year-end, about 50%.
Right. Right. And lastly, sir, on the 113 exceptional line item part, can you explain the nature of, and any more, amount that we need to, classify under exceptional going ahead, as you can explain the JP, the JP issue in a bit detail?
Since we have done the tolling operations in the last one and a half years, so we had to give some advances to JP for clearing the past defaults of, taxes, et cetera, power payments, et cetera, without which the plant could not have started. So since we could not recover that money, was to be adjusted in the acquisition of the assets. So since, the company has gone into IBC, considering the uncertainty of realization of this amount, we have taken impairment in the last quarter over 113 crores.
And that is the full and final figure, no further?
Yeah, yeah. We covered whatever exposure we had, so we don't expect any further increase in this.
Okay. And lastly, on the Murli acquisition, sir.
Uh-
I'll try to join with you. Yeah, yeah. Yes, definitely. For Murli, if you could share your thoughts, how is the integration being? And that, that's all from my side. And, happy Republic Day to the team. Thank you.
Okay. So Murli also, we are continuing to improve our positioning in the market, and successively we'll ensure that this becomes a very profitable plant, and already it has crossed the break-even points.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Yash Darak with RSPN Ventures. Please go ahead.
So thanks for having me. So my question is that the other expenses has sort of increased at equal total revenue, which is generally at 16%. So are we expecting this mandate to continue or there will be a decrease in the other expenses?
The other expenses has two components. One is, of course, the fixed, and second is on the variable part. So variable part goes up, in line with the volume increase, which is the packing cost a nd some of the costs, like in depot expenses or commission, etc , etc . But the fixed expenses had bumped up in the current quarter because of the higher plant shutdowns. So this should go down somewhat in Q3 and mainly in Q4. But other fixed expenses, they should remain same.
Okay, thank you. And lastly, the CapEx, you said that around INR 3,000 crores will be CapEx for the entire year. So how much CapEx has been by now, if you could share?
Yes. Close to about INR 1,386 crores in the first half, in this quarter, rather, in this quarter, and another-
H1.
H1 is INR 1,386 crores, yes.
Okay. Okay. Thank you, sir. Yep.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, yeah. Thanks for the opportunity again. So I remember earlier you had mentioned that a thousand dealers of JP had shifted to Dalmia in the central markets. So, how many of them would still be associated with you?
I think most of them, but exact count, of course, I will not know. But most of them are still continuing, and we are currently doing the operations through our eastern plants.
Are you expanding the network further in Central or planning to maintain that dealer network?
Of course, we have to see the profitability as well as the market growth. We'll try to increase, but considering the long distance which we have to cover, so we have a limitation of all the markets which we can cover, so we'll gradually see how quarter by quarter we are able to improve on it.
Sure about it. And also, what is the cost of slag that you're incurring now?
There is a small increase over the previous quarter. Mm-hmm. I'll come back on that specific number.
Okay. How much would it be, just, if you could give a ballpark also?
It's in the range of about INR 1,000-INR 1,500. It keeps moving from quarter to quarter, depending on the auction prices.
Okay. Okay. Sure, yeah. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we take the last question from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir. I also just wanted to understand the 8% growth that we are looking at for industry in second half. And so for us we have already said that we are looking at 9% volume growth for FY 2025. So broadly is it fair to say that in the second half for us south will be growing better than the east?
I don't think we can give regional numbers, and I think we've already said that our estimates for industry growth are better in H2, because H1, Q1 was an election quarter, and Q2 was a monsoon quarter. So we think there is pent-up demand in housing, which could come back. We think government spend on infra will gather more momentum.
We think real estate and private CapEx will also, you know, contribute to this. So our best estimate is that this can go to 7%-8% in Q2, H2. And, you know, we think that, based on this, maybe, prices could be marginally better, although it will depend on competitive intensity also. So given that, we think that, you know, Dalmia can continue to grow in the range that we have guided for.
Thank you.
Okay.
And last, and lastly, for pet coke share and domestic coal share in the fuel mix in Q2 was how much?
I don't think I will give that data to you right now.
Okay. No issues, sir. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question and answer session. I will now hand the conference over to Mr. Puneet Dalmia for his closing comments.
I think this was a, you know, weak quarter, from a pricing standpoint, but our volume growth was quite healthy. You know, we are still very bullish on the long-term prospects of the industry, given the great demand outlook and the consolidation that is happening.
We will continue to build Dalmia to be more efficient. We will continue to look at our expansion plans in line with our long-term guidance of pan-India footprint, as well as adding capacity, you know, where we think, you know, we are sold out, and we need more market share. So I would just say that, I still have great conviction and great belief in the long-term story, and cement is a proxy growth for the, you know, India long-term story. Thank you for your interest in us, and wish you and your families a very happy Diwali. Look forward to seeing you in 2025 . Take care and have a great day. Bye-bye.
Thank you, sir. On behalf of Dalmia Bharat Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your line.