Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the GAIL Limited Q1 FY25 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Abhishek Nigam. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Yeah. Thank you, Saju. Thank you everyone for taking out time for GAIL's first quarter FY25 results call. We have with us from the management, Shri R.K. Jain, Director Finance of the company, along with other members. Now, without any further delay, I will hand over to management for opening remarks. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Abhishek. A very good morning to you, my colleagues present here, dear friends from investors and analyst community. Once again, good morning and very warm welcome to GAIL's earnings call for Q1 2025. At the outset, I thank you for all, all of you to attending this earnings call. It gives me immense pleasure to share with you GAIL's. GAIL received clean comments from CAG for financial statement for the financial year 2023-24, and this is 15th year in row. GAIL has advanced its net zero carbon emission target for Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions to 2035 from earlier stated target of 2040. GAIL's results for quarter ended 30th June 2024 have been declared yesterday. I would briefly touch upon the major highlights for the quarter, and then certainly we can open the session for question and answers. Financial highlights.
GAIL's turnover increased by 4% to INR 33,627 crore in Q1 financial year 2025, as against INR 32,250 crore in Q4 financial year 2024. This is mainly due to robust physical performance in gas transmission segment, increased natural gas marketing volume in domestic market, and higher natural gas prices. Profit before tax increased to INR 3,642 crore, as against INR 2,842 crore in Q4 financial year 2024, and this is up by 28%, and is mainly due to increased transmission volume and better gas trading margins. The profit after tax during the quarter increased to INR 2,724 crore, as against INR 2,177 crore in the Q4 financial year 2024. Again, there is increase of 25%.
On comparative quarter basis, GAIL closed turnover of INR 33,626 crore, as against INR 32,138 crore in corresponding period of the last year, an increase of 5% mainly on account of increase in gas transmission volume and natural gas prices. Both PBT and PAT increased by 93% to INR 3,642 crore and INR 2,724 crore, as against INR 1,889 crore and INR 1,412 crore respectively, and results are same. Physical performance during the quarter Q1 financial year 2025 as against Q4 financial year 2024, gas marketing volume during the quarter was 99.47 MMSCMD, it is almost flat. If you compare with the previous quarter, there it was 99.90 MMSCMD. Overall volume, as I said, is flat.
However, there was an increase of 5 MMSCMD of volume in domestic market, and this growth is mainly driven by power. Natural gas transmission volume was 131.79 MMSCMD in Q1 financial year 2025, as against 123.65 MMSCMD in Q4 financial year 2024. The average capacity utilization was 63%. Polymer production was down by 86 TMT to 162 TMT in Q1 financial year 2025, as against 248 in previous quarter, due to annual turnaround, which normal phenomena in our case, we normally take annual turnaround during the period of April every year. LHC production was 216 TMT, as against 265 TMT in previous quarter. The decrease is also due to annual turnaround activity at Pata, C2, C3, Vijaipur, and Gandhar units.
LPG transmission was 1,065 TMT, as against 1,114 TMT in previous quarter. The capacity utilization during the quarter. Consolidated financials for Q1 financial year 2025 as compared to Q4 financial year 2024, the consolidated turnover in Q1 financial year 2025 stood at INR 34,822 crore, as against INR 32,833 crore in Q4 financial year 2024, which is up by 6%. The profit before tax in Q1 financial year 2025 stood at INR 4,114 crore, as against 3,099 crore in Q4 financial year 2024, and this is again up by 33%.
The profit after tax is INR 3,183 crore versus INR 2,469 crore in Q4 financial year 2024, up by 29%.... As you know, GAIL also have six CGDs along its Jagdishpur-Haldia pipeline. So we have an infrastructure under those CGDs, 189 CNG stations and 3.4 lakh DPNG connections. During Q1 financial year 2025, 700 new DPNG connections were added. The physical volume is 0.3 MMSCMD during the quarter. In the next two years, GAIL targets to add around 80 new CNG stations and around 1,20,000 new DPNG connections. As you know, we have GAIL Gas as our 100% subsidiary. Now, I will take you through the GAIL Gas financial highlights for Q1 and also of their plan for next two years.
Gross turnover stood at INR 2,987 crore, as against INR 2,853 crore in Q4 financial year 2024, increase of 5%, and this is mainly on account of increase in revenue from CNG segment by 4% and bulk trading segment by 7%. Profit before tax stood at INR 149 crore, as against INR 121 crore in Q4 financial year 2024, and there is an increase of 23%. Profit after tax stood at INR 110 crore, as against INR 92 crore in Q4 financial year 2024, increased by 20%. The physical volume increased to 7.11 MMSCMD in Q1 financial year 2025, increase of 3% mainly on account of increase in CNG sales and 14%.
Sorry, increase of 3% mainly on account of increase in CNG sales and 14%, uh, bulk and trading by 4%. During Q1 financial year 2025, GAIL Gas, along with its JV subsidiaries, had added 27,467 new DPNG connections and two CNG stations, having infrastructure of 10 lakh 3,000 DPNG connections. In the next two years, GAIL Gas targets to add under 70 new CNG stations and around 5 lakh new DPNG connections. Now, I will take you through the project performance. As you know, Mumbai-Nagpur-Jharsuguda pipeline we are laying, that's a length of 1,775 kilometers. Activities for laying this pipeline are in full swing, and we expect this pipeline to be completed during current financial year. Regarding Jagdishpur-Haldia-Bokaro-Dhamra pipeline, this is pipeline of 2,986 kilometers.
Out of total pipeline length, 2,986 km has already been laid out of 3,289 km, and remaining part is expected to be completed progressively by March 2025. Srikakulam main pipeline, this is 421 km pipeline. Work is under progress and spur lines work is under progress for mainline and spur line, and 320 km is already completed, and rest of the pipeline is expected to be completed during current financial year. Gurdaspur-Jammu natural gas pipeline, this pipeline having a length of under 60 km, likely to be completed by July 2026. Other projects, PDH-PP at Usar. Capacity is 500 KTPA. Project cost is INR 11,256 crore. Mechanical completion is expected by April 2025, and we expect commercial production by October 2025. Overall progress, the progress is 69.5%.
Polypropylene plant at Pata, capacity 60 KTPA. Project cost is INR 1,299 crore and expected to be completed during current financial year, and project progress is 87.4%. IPA at Usar, capacity is 50 KTPA. Project cost is INR 530 crore. Completion date is 24 months after licensor selection. Currently, we are in the process of selecting the licensor. We have acquired one, JBF Petrochemicals. Now we call it a GAIL Mangalore Petrochemicals. Capacity of this plant is 1,250 KTPA. Project cost is INR 4,200 crore. We expect to be completed by June 2025.
With respect to CapEx, during Q1 financial year 2025, we have incurred CapEx of INR 1,659 crore, and this CapEx is mainly on pipeline, around INR 500 crore, Petrochem, again, around INR 500 crore, CGD projects, INR 30 crore, and CapEx on others, operational CapEx on others is around INR 400 crore. Estimated future CapEx for financial year 2024/2025 is INR 11,450 crore, including the equity contributions, and 2025/2026 is INR 10,129 crore, again, including the equity contributions. Now, I will take you through the segmental outlook. As you know that we have marketed almost 100 MMSCMD of volume in the Q1 financial year 2024/2025, and we have been giving guidance to you that this year we expect to grow by approximately 5%. We are on that course.
We have also given you the guidance regarding the marketing margin for the full financial year. We have said that whatever situation comes, we are expected to earn around INR 4,000 crore-INR 4,500 crore of marketing margin. We have given the kind of range to you this time, and we are on the course of achieving those targets. In Q1 2025, we have already earned almost INR 1,994 crore of marketing margin from this segment, and we expect to surpass the current target given to you, INR 4,000 crore-INR 4,500 crore. For guidance purpose, you may consider now INR 4,500 crore as a minimum target for this financial year.... Gas transmission volume, we have been giving guidance for now almost 3 years, and we are on course.
The guidance we have given for this financial year that we will transmit gas marketing around 130-130 MMSCMD volume. You can see from the physical performance of Q1, we have transported almost 132 MMSCMD, to be precise, 131.79 MMSCMD. With respect to outlook for 2025, 2026 and 2026, 2027, maybe coming 2-3 years, we expect to grow our transmission volume by 10-12 MMSCMD. Polymer production is stood at 162 TMT, as against 248 TMT in previous quarter, and this is, as I explained to you, this is mainly due to normal plant shutdown, which we take normally in April, and this year also we took in April. We are expecting an upside in this segment hereon. As you know, the price are almost stabilized. The natural gas prices are also softened.
We expect to earn, when we close this financial year, a reasonable amount of profit from this segment during financial year 25. Liquid hydrocarbon production stood at 216 TMT in Q1, and we have posted a PBT of INR 229 crore. The production is lower side in comparison to 265 TMT in Q4, financial year 25. Again, this is primarily due to turnaround activities, but the production levels have been regularized since May 2024, and we are course of achieving our capacities as we did in last year, and maybe more than that, both for petrochemicals and LHC. And that's all from my side regarding the overview of performance and projects. The management of the company is available now with you. We would be glad to clarify any questions that you may have. Now, I hand over to you, Abhishek.
Mr. Abhishek?
Yeah, Abhishek.
Yes, sir.
Yeah. Susan, can you connect me to the conference?
Sir, you are connected.
Okay.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press Star and One on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press Star and Two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Puneet from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you so much, and congratulations on great numbers. My first question is on the gas transmission volume business. You've already touched 132 million cubic meters a day now. Are you expecting some bit of reduction in the current quarter, given that the power demand from the gas station might slow down a bit? Or are you still seeing the same number flow through? And in which case, is there an upside to your 132 million cubic meters guidance for fiscal 2025?
There is no upside as of now, we are communicating. We maintain our guidance of 130 to 130 to 132 MMSCMD on whole year basis.
Currently, you're still running at 132, or has it come down?
As long as you are talking to me, we are on average 131.
Hundred thirty-one.
For 4 months.
Okay. For four months. Okay, that, that's very helpful. Secondly, on the marketing side, you know, you're almost halfway through the guidance, and now you're guiding for 4,500 to be lower end. What should one assume the higher end of the guidance, given the current hedging that you would have done so far?
You know, we have been giving guidance for, you know, minimum.
Yeah.
There is a reason for that, because in order to maintain that, we take lot of positions in the market. We also do lot of optimization activities in terms of swaps, shipping swaps. And whatever we have been able to lock as of now, the guidance is based on that. That's why we say it's a minimum guidance. And I can only say at this point of time, we are going to achieve the minimum guidance, and we will revise our guidance based on the results of Q2, during Q2 results, earning call.
Okay, that's very helpful. And lastly, on your marketing volume increase, that you're guiding for 5 million cubic meters a recent, can you talk about what customers are looking at?
Okay. So that is one, one is a normal growth in the country, which you have been witnessing, everybody is witnessing, that gas market growth is there. A normal growth which comes from city gas distribution, almost 4-5 MMSCMD volume is growing. We expect that at least 2 MMSCMD we are, which is our market share. I'm not giving any upside on that, though we have ability to even surprise, surpass that.
Mm.
We expect at least 2 MMSCMD may come from there.
Right.
Second, there is a sea change in the power demand.
Mm.
Last year, we saw there was a demand from power, but this year, significantly, it has come up, and we expect the demand to continue at least to meet the peaking demand. There is a change. So that's another thing. Third, as we are laying the pipeline, concluding the commissioning the pipeline, the customers along those pipelines, maybe city gas distribution customers, maybe small consumers, are coming up. That is third thing. Fourth, the fertilizer plants which were commissioned during last year.
Right
... did not take the volume on an average basis to the extent they could have taken. That will come up. So we expect overall there should be a demand. I'm talking on domestic market, at least that will grow, and we continue to play in international market as we have been doing for various regions.
Understood. That's alright. Thank you so much, and all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Probal Sen from ICAI Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity, sir, and congratulations on a good set of numbers. This was with respect to the polymer shutdown. Can I get a sense of how many days the shutdown was for, and what is the current run rate of petrochemicals that you're seeing in Q2 so far?
Shutdown was almost for a period of 1 month, 30 days, 28-30 days.
Right.
If you talk of a current rate on a proportionate basis, it's 105%.
I'm sorry, sir, what does that mean, proportionate basis?
Means if we delete the month of April-
Uh-huh
... and if then we work out the proportion for three months on pro rata basis-
Right
... we are running at a rate of 105%. It means we are going to achieve our capacity of 810, rather we target to surpass that.
Okay, so despite the shutdown and one month not being there in terms of production, you still expect to somehow get to that, you know, 800,000 to 810 capacity?
Our activity is a part of design of plant.
Sure, sir. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
unique activity we are carrying out, so that is already factored in. So we expect-
Right
... to not only touch our capacity, but we expect to surpass that.
Understood, sir, understood. So the other thing is the guidance that was given in your briefing when you mentioned transmission volumes of 10-12 MMSCMD, that was for basically every year we expect to add that, or the collective addition by FY 2026 on FY 2024 base?
Okay.
Inaudible
2024, 2025, we have given 130-132.
Right.
25, 26, we have already given 140 to 142. Now we have ability to give you even 26, 27, we expect that again to increase around by 10 MMSCMD.
Understood, sir. One last small question, if I may. With respect to Dabhol's breakwater facility, you know, in your project update, apologies if I did not get that. Any update on the timelines and progress on that front?
Actually, Dabhol, as we said during last earnings calls, should have been commissioned for all-weather terminal before this monsoon.
Mm.
But because of some issue of, you know, there, we could not complete before this monsoon, but now activities are on course. We have sorted out the issue of, you know, there was issue of way to take, the people to the, actually, the site. And now we have got resolved that issue. So after this monsoon, we will be able to complete. And this year, the, after this monsoon, it will be a all-weather terminal.
Next year, we should not expect the stoppage that happened for four months, just to say.
Actually, this was unanticipated. There was some issue with the local people, so that has been sorted out now.
Right. All right, sir. Thank you. I'll come back if I have more questions. Thank you so much for your time.
Sure.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Yogesh Patil from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question, sir, and congratulations on the great set of numbers. Sir, gas transmission volume has increased close to 8 MMSCMD quarter-over-quarter. Can you give us idea how much of this was from the gas power plant? As per our knowledge, you are directly supplying the gas to the gas power plant, so you will have a better idea on that side.
Around 4-5 MMSCMD for quarter.
That is still sustaining in the month of July?
Like a gas power plant is one thing which has come up, but there are fertilizer plants which were under shutdown during quarter one. Had those plants been running, we would have even crossed 132. So we are still maintaining a 131 run rate. That I said to the answer to one of the question raised by another participant.
Yes, sir. I have second question. In the last call, you mentioned that there is no APM gas allocation to the gas transmission segment, and despite that, your gas cost has declined sequentially, I mean, quarter on quarter. Any thoughts on this side, sir?
... But this was supposed to be declined. We also said during those earnings calls that the allocation for APM gas was reduced all of a sudden in a gradual manner from 16th August 2022, if I remember correctly, and then gradually it was reduced, by the end of March 2023, the allocation was totally stopped. Is that right?
Right.
Twenty, twenty-four.
Point 2. 23.
2023, yeah, sorry. So it was totally stopped. So since it was done all of a sudden, so we were—and that period was, you know, geopolitical situations were not favorable for gas marketing, gas price. So during that period, we were required to purchase high price gas in order to operate and maintain our pipeline. And slowly, slowly, gas prices have started softening, so certainly quarter-on-quarter, that impact which we faced during 2022, 2023, started coming down, and now we are almost at a normal level of gas prices for the purpose of consumption in compressors.
Okay. Sir, recently, the PNGRB has revised upward the LPG pipeline tariffs. Just wanted to understand the impact on the LPG business, on the GAIL, and if you could also share, rupees per ton increase in LPG transmission tariffs would be helpful.
The impact on GAIL is around INR 120 crore-INR 140 crore on profit of GAIL, the profit before tax, right?
INR 120 crore.
120-140 crore on annual basis. Since this is implement, being implemented on first August, this will be proportionate for this year, and on annual basis, I have given the figure around INR 120 crore, you can take.
Okay.
Regarding your question, how much it will increase? It will increase by 3.4%, the amount of tariff increase by PNGRB. We believe that it will increase the cost per ton by 3.4%.
Okay, sir. And the last question from my side on the petrochemical. Could you please share the cost of gas used for the petrochemical and outlook for the petrochemical business in FY 2025, 2026, on the utilization level, mostly?
Actually, cost of gas sharing is a very difficult one, because it's not that we give a particular gas to the petrochemical plant. We have ability to source various gases at various point of time. Whatever cheapest gas available, we'll try to source and give to petrochemical plant. So it's not a thing which is a very, very, very, kind of, always that prices will be there. But regarding your question of profitability, I will not be able to give you a number, but I can give you one confidence that this year we are going to earn a reasonably good profit from petrochemical business. And Q1 results are showing that in spite being, you know, we were not operating for one month, we are almost breakeven. No, we have a loss of INR 42 crore and almost breakeven.
So we'll be picking up, and at the end of the year, we have good, reasonably good margins.
Thank you so much, sir, and best of luck.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nitin Tiwari from PhillipCapital. Please go ahead.
Good morning, sir. Thanks for the opportunity and, congratulations on very good set of numbers. So my question is related to your gas trading segment. So while we did see increase in the gas transmission side, our gas trading volumes are rather flat, and, the operating profit increase is largely driven by margins. So, my question basically had two parts to this. How should we look at the gas trading volume number going forward? Like, you know, are we expecting... While you're guiding for a 5 MMSCMD increase, but, like, you know, it has not happened in this quarter, and, what would be contributing to that increase going ahead and also in the years to come? And secondly, like, you know, on the gas trading margin side, how do we see this gas trading margin number?
Because, I suppose there are few contracts which have fixed margins, but few contracts have open margins. So what is a broad range where we can, like, you know, probably look at this margin, if we have to look at it in per unit terms? So that would be my first question, sir.
So our overall number remained flat as compared to Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. We are almost flat. But one thing I actually shared last time, but let me give one again. Those numbers of Q4 includes 10 MMSCMD of volumes we marketed in the international market. In view of increased demand in the domestic market, we brought those volumes to India. Now, in fact, in domestic market, where we have more delta available in terms of margin, volume already has increased to 95. And I also said during the answer to one of the question, that we continue to be there in the international market to do various optimization, and therefore, from there, that volume increase will come.
So 4-5 MMSCMD or 5 MMSCMD increase, which I said is available already, and the further increase, if you are to see, it is coming from power, as I explained, it's coming from city gas distribution, the fertilizer plants which did not take the volumes, full volume last year, they have sales contract with us, purchase and sales contract with us, and the normal growth which is coming up along the pipeline, which are being commissioned. So we expect 5 MMSCMD of volume should be achievable, and let us see. We are on the course as on date. In terms of marketing margin, I have already given the guidance that in last analyst meet, we said INR 4,000 crore-INR 4,500 crore. We have given band.
Now we are saying minimum INR 4,500 crore we will earn during this year, and we will revise our guidance based on the progress in another three months during Q2, financial year 2025.
So, sir, if I understood this right, I mean, your gas trading mix is changing with more overseas sales now turning towards India, so you're selling that volume within India, and that is also leading you to earn better margins. That's, that's what it is, right? So that's the right interpretation?
Yeah.
Yes.
You are right.
So, what I was actually asking in per unit terms was that if we calculate your gas trading margin on per unit of, gas sales, it comes to about $0.70 per MMBTU. So, that's what I was asking, that how do we look at this number? I mean, like, you know, is it like, you know, going to be at this-
You should not calculate this $0.70. Just leave it on us.
Okay.
Because we have ability to change $0.70 to $2. We have ability to make it $2.5. Last month's close price for Henry Hub was $1.90 per MMBTU. The Henry Hub price sometimes reaches $3. We do the paper trading. We take the benefit of arbitrage. If you maintain $0.70 on average side, it looks good, but let us do that, and we'll give you the result.
Sure, sir. Sir, my second question is related to your petchem segment. So, like the way you've given a guidance for gas trading, would it be possible for you to share some guidance in terms of what kind of profitability we can expect from this segment, in this year and next year when your other capacity would also get commissioned? Maybe if you can, I mean, give some color over there.
Actually, I said in answer to earlier participant question, we may not be able to give you any number.
Mm-hmm.
At this stage, I will be sharing that we will be earning a reasonably good profit, because Q1 result, if you compare with the corresponding year of last year, you can work out, it is far better, where we lost significantly last year's Q1, and primarily reason was the gas price. The polymer price remained at this level only, if you compare last year versus this year.
Right.
We are able to source cheaper gas, as I said in answer to one of the question, your question only with respect to gas marketing margin. We have ability to provide the cheaper gas through various sources, including the paper trading we are doing even for Pata Petrochemicals. We continue to maintain our guidance that this year will end with a reasonably good margin.
Understood, sir. Just that, like, you know, I wanted to understand if the current situation continues, that, then if you'll be able to help us with some number, but that's fine. I mean, like, you know, if you are not able to help with the number currently.
Right.
That would be all from my end.
Yeah.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sabri Hazarika from Emkay Global. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning, sir, and congratulations on great set of numbers.
Morning. Thank you.
Yeah. So, sir, I have, like, couple of questions. First, on the marketing side, I mean, we are almost at INR 8,000 crore kind of run rate, versus INR 4,500 crore that you have locked in. So I was just wondering, was there any inventory gain, impact also, which was there in Q1?
No inventory gain.
No inventory gain? Okay, sir.
Yeah.
And secondly, on the pipeline, I mean, it was previously taken up by another participant also. So you said that gas cost is, like, continuing to decline, due to which the pipeline-
No, I have not said. I am stating... I said it has now stabilized. Almost, it will be range-bound. I said it declined because of the reasons of geopolitical situations, all of a sudden reduction of APM gas, and finally it was totally stopped. So it continued to decline. Now we feel that it will be in this range only.
Right, sir. And, I mean, in terms of anything specific to the domestic market, like, there has been some news of Andhra Pradesh cutting VAT and other things. Anything that also contributed to the lower CapEx for the pipeline business?
Actually, it helps, because gas is a competitive, is suffering from, these variations of taxes. Certainly, it is helping. It particularly helps not only to the gas marketer like us, but city gas distribution companies are benefited most by it. When they get benefited, we certainly get benefited, because city gas distribution companies were paying a higher input cost, higher taxes, and therefore their competition with the competing alternative fuel was becoming difficult. So now they have started progressing well because of this VAT cut. Then, if they benefit, we also benefit, because ultimately we are the flagship company in gas marketing.
Right, sir. Got it. And sir, secondly, regarding this new petchem project in Madhya Pradesh, so any details you'd want to give on that?
I don't have any detail. I only saw we gave clarification to SEBI, based on some paper news, that as a commercial organization, we continue to look for various opportunities where we should invest our money, and this can be one of the area, but no decision yet has been taken on putting petrochemical at Madhya Pradesh or any other Pradesh.
Okay, sir. Thank you so much, and all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kirtan Mehta from BOB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. Coming back to the gas transmission operations, sir, basically against the volume of-
... growth of 6%-7% during the quarter, quarter-on-quarter, we are seeing the gross margin increase of 23%. Would you be able to highlight the specific driver which has helped increase in gross margin?
You are talking of gas transmission?
Gas transmission business, yes, sir.
Okay, 7%, so you yourself said a volume increase. Second, what happens when there is a change in journals, that also helps because weighted average tariff changes. Third, during quarter four, we accounted for additional depreciation. Because of that, we took a decision based on the opinion of ICAI, that we were keeping 5% of accounts. Then we, we now taking-- took a call that we will not keep any value, so that decision was taken last financial year. Last quarter, we had accounted for more depreciation. That is, that is now normalized from this quarter onwards. So these... And, and one more, the gas price for internal consumption, which is, one of the participant asked, that is continued to decline, now it is stabilized, so that is also factoring into. All these factors are helping, you know, for increased profit.
Right.
So if I, my colleague has put this slide. If you see, there is a decrease of depreciation, INR 100 crore, fuel expenses, INR 86 crore, so, and some provisions were made in last financial year to INR 436 crore. All these factors have helped us.
Sure, sir. Thank you. The second question was about the 10-12 MMSY in the grid that we are guiding for FY 2026 and 2027 in the transmission segment. What is the market share that we are assuming?
Seventy percent.
Seventy percent?
Pipeline business, you cannot assume any market share. Our existence is for 70% infrastructure, and we build, because this is a monopoly. Pipeline, pipeline transmission is a monopoly. Wherever you exist, you continue to have those market shares. So we are 70%, almost 70% infrastructure share, so we continue to maintain those shares.
The country demand would grow by 15-16 MMSCM, and we will get 70% of that as a transmission volume. That's the assumption?
Yes, maybe more than that. More pipelines will come. If they come, either we put or some other. I'm giving this based on current infrastructure, what we have and what we are laying.
In terms of the project update, would you also be able to share the, on Bangalore-Kochi pipeline leg, the last leg that is remaining, what's the target date?
We are on course, and we expect to complete by this financial year.
Sure, sir. One more question. In terms of the APM gas availability, what we hear is around 69%. So how do we see the availability of the APM gas changing? Do you have any inputs on that?
APM gas for what?
CGD.
CGD?
Yeah.
It will continue to decline because the market is growing. CGD is one of the growing sector. It is the only sector which is growing with a double digits after one of the major consumer of gas, after fertilizers. So if CGDs are growing, certainly it will continue to, you know, continue to, continue to, continue to, decline. 69% may further come down.
But from the supply side, we are not seeing issues. So it's only basically because of the demand increase, the proportionate allocation will come down. Is that the way to look at it?
Demand will continue to increase. The APM allocation may come down. When demand increases, availability is limited, certainly it is likely to come down.
Thank you, sir. Thanks for all this clarification and very detailed opening remark.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ajay Jain from Micent Investments. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So, very good numbers, congratulations on that. So my query is basically on segment, gas marketing. You have thrown some light on it, but, you know, if we compare quarter to quarter, we are not able to foresee what would be your profitability in that. Can you give us some guidance on how to calculate going ahead about your purchases in this, gas marketing? Is it long-term basis or is it spot which you import, or is it linked with the international prices when you purchase it, and how is it done, sir? If you could give us a little idea so that we can calculate-
I have one more little idea, that we will earn more than INR 4,500 crore, at least INR 4,500 crore.
Yes, that you've already given, sir. Just, just let me continue on this, sir. So there's so much variation. So is the international prices linked to, to what you import gas from U.S. and other places, you know? Is it that... Is it on a long-term basis that you have a contract, and how is the price determined, sir? Like, the reason behind it is, I'm an investor, I just want to understand the business of how it is done, what is the profitability that comes? Because every time a quarter result come, it, the figures are so varied.
I can give you examples, sir, like quarter one and quarter two, you know, I mean, quarter four, you had INR 1,600 crore profit reflecting in that, and in quarter one, we are having INR 2,285 crore profit reflecting in this. Now, how is this worked out, sir? Because we are not able to see it through. Even if you compare it year-on-year, we are not able to see through. How is this calculated? I mean, at least some idea if we get, how is the company performing, you know, exactly how this is done. It would do well, sir. Because company is good, you're doing a very nice job, but we are not able to understand the business, you know, exactly how this is done.
If you could throw some color on it, it would really help us.
... Let me give, take you back three years back. We never used to give guidance on this marketing business, because this was the one which you are posing, people were not able to understand. So we started giving guidance way back in May 2022. We gave that for 2022, 2023, INR 3,000 crore. 2023 to 2024, we said INR 3,500 crore, and now we have said INR 4,500 crore. Today, I have said minimum of INR 4,500 crore. And the, where from this guidance is coming, and then I will come back to your question. We have, we have almost 14 MMTP of contract currently operating. Out of those, now you can note it down because, some of the, answer to your question may be available.
Mm-hmm.
Almost 4.8 MMTP of contract we have from Middle East, which is back-to-back, we have certain margin. APM, we have back-to-back, certain margins. Then almost 3 MMTP of contract we have from SMTS, which is crude linked contract. We have sourced on crude linked, marketed on crude linked, so you can assume that almost fixed margin which we get. Then 5.8 MMTP of contract we have from United States. There, we have marketed some of the gas at back-to-back index, and we have good margin, and that is predictable. We work out based on that. Remaining, what we do, we continue to remain in the market and we take positions. Like, Henry Hub has gone down, from, to 1.9. In recent past, it was 3. We continue to watch the market, take positions to take the benefit of arbitrage.
That is one thing which changes. Second, we do destination swaps. When molecule has to travel from United States to India, almost $2-$2.5 is a tariff, but we continue to optimize through swap. Cargoes going from Middle East to United States, we are bringing from United States to our country, so we try to swaps and optimize. It's a win-win situation, so both the seller or optimizes. So that we do. We also market the volume in international markets. So when we give you guidance, we work out what we have formed up when we are giving guidance. And we know that this is likely to be achieved. There is no doubt, but we continue to do optimization, and that's how it increases. So this is whole game.
If you expect that we will be able to give you guidance more than that, I can give, but that market may or may not support. Market may give different situations. So we give guidance, and we continue to come back to you and revise our guidance based on those situations.
Thank you so much, sir. So neatly and nicely explained, sir. Sir, can I just understand this way also?
Yes, sure.
Yeah, just give me a second on this, please. We, Sir, can we understand it that way, that in quarter four, if the international price was $1.9, and in quarter one it is $2.4, that means in gas marketing, you would do a good, good, profit, in it?
For more volume, for some of the volume, not for more volume.
Okay. Yeah, about those.
Same index. We do not have ability to earn more, but where we have not marketed on same index, we can take positions based on future. That we continue to do. It's, it's not a subject which I can explain in a few minutes, but, but I have tried to give fair idea to your question.
Yes. Yes.
That's why we give minimum guidance.
Fair enough, sir. Can I put it on mail also if there is any further query to this regard?
You can contact any time and,
Thank you so much. Okay. Okay, thank you so much, sir.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants, please restrict your question to one per participant. If you have a follow-up question, you come back in the queue. The next question is from the line of S. Ramesh, from Nirmal Bang Equities. Please go ahead.
Hello, thank you, and good afternoon. So, in terms of the conversations with the regulator, PNGRB, do you have any sense in terms of when you will get the compensation for the cost of the the LNG which you used last year, which you were saying that the regulator is considering? And do you see any risk of the regulator revisiting your integrated tariff in the foreseeable future?
Our integrated tariff? What is that, our integrated tariff?
I'm just trying to understand if there is any risk of the regulator revisiting your integrated tariff and reducing it?
Revisiting on what basis? Well, there is a defined regulation. Tariff is being worked out based on those regulations. Just because we are able to transport more volume, we are getting more revenues, can it reduce it? Because there is a defined regulatory returns which are available to us, and we cannot earn more than that. We are on the course of earning that. So unless regulator says, "Oh, for everybody, we want to reduce the return, IRR," that possibility, if it exists, then certainly it can happen. Otherwise, no.
On the compensation for the higher cost LNG you've used in compressors last year?
Yeah. Actually, we immediately after announcement of tariff, we approached the regulator, and if you calculate based on a NPV basis, INR 8-9 of reduction, because there was a reduction of around INR 6. But if you can calculate it, the NPV basis, INR 8-9 is available to us in terms of gas price. We filed an appeal, but unfortunately, a lack of a legal member, I think that's what I understand, could not be heard. Meanwhile, we are in the course of filing the revised transmission tariff for integrated pipeline. There, our, you know, higher prices can be considered, because recently other transporters' tariff was announced, where they considered higher price than what we were allowed. We were allowed INR 3.61.
Other companies' tariff in the process that the regulator has given higher price, certainly that is available to us, and we hope that this will be done maybe in six months' time, and if not earlier, then either by the end of this financial year or maybe beginning of next financial year, those are available to us on that present value basis.
Amit, one more question. On the ONGC's KG gas production ramp up, do you have any sense in terms of what is the kind of volume you can expect, and how much of that will you be targeting to tap?
Sumeet Rohra, inaudible.
I think ONGC has been projecting certain volumes from KG Basin, but we have been hearing from them, maybe 1 or 2 MMSCMD in this financial year, we can expect, and larger volume in the next financial year, that is 2025, 2026, maybe in the range of 5-6 MMSCMD. But these projections have been coming from them, but they are getting delayed. That's what we have been observing.
Okay, thank you very much, and I appreciate it.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants, please restrict your questions to one per participant. The next question is from the line of Mayank Maheshwari from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So thank you for doing the call. Just one question from my end. In terms of gas sourcing now, obviously, you have kind of talked about reasonably well on how you think about demand. How are you seeing the sourcing strategy now going forward as you are in the market? How much could we expect through linked contracts and we have linked contracts now going forward? Is there a mix you want to kind of get to over the next four to five years?
Actually, our intent will be have mixed portfolio. We have experienced that, that helps us not only as a gas marketing company, but also as a country, because whenever there is a change in one basis, the other basis helps us. So we have recently sourced 1.53 MMTPA from two suppliers. That's on a crude-linked index, and we are in the market, and we certainly will continue to maintain our mix and make... But the bottom line is that we look for cheapest source. When we while we try to have mix, but we bottom line is first we look which will be the cheapest, and certainly, the cheapest should also give us a mixed kind of portfolio. That helps.
Okay. Sure. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vishnu Kumar from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Thanks for your time, sir. Sir, on the Qatar contract, is there any change in the transfer of ownership from, say, Dahej to directly at Qatar to reduce some costs? And if so, is there any cost savings for us and the industry?
We are still negotiating the SPA, detailed contract.
I mean, I'm asking for the existing contract itself, sir, because we, one of our, one of-
I'm not privy to any such discussion.
Got it, sir. And, just one question on the volume growth that you are highlighting from 132 to 152. We've been able to achieve to whatever you highlighted earlier, but from here, what are the sectors that you are sourcing, when you go from 132 to 152? Any rough idea, if you can help us understand.
Okay. Give me a moment.
Sir, this, most of this is going to come from the natural CGD growth, which is at least 12%-12% or even higher CAGR. Next comes the refineries along the eastern pipelines, the Dibrugarh-Haldia pipeline already, Barauni and, this, the Panipat, sorry, Paradip pipeline are getting supplies. They will ramp up, and, Haldia will get connected soon. After that, the two refineries along the Guwahati section of the pipeline. So these refineries will be major contributors as far as transmission is concerned. Then there will be newer customers-
Can you give in volume terms?
Along these pipelines, which are basically more, mainly in the steel sector, and the aluminum sector, the metal companies. Which will also be, these set of customers will also be along the Srikakulam-Angul pipeline, which will be getting commissioned, and also some of, some of them on the Dibrugarh-Haldia pipeline. So these are the major set of customers. Otherwise, there is going to be the natural growth also coming from some of the existing, legacy customers.
Sir, on your CGD and refinery alone, what will be the absolute that you are considering, sir, from INR 132-INR 152?
The refinery segment will contribute around 8-10 MMSCMD out of that. CGD will contribute another maybe 5-6 MMSCMD, and remaining all will be a new set of customers and natural growth.
Got it, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The last question is from the line of Sumeet Rohra from Smartsun Capital . Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, sir. Thank you very much for a detailed presentation, and congratulations on excellent results. Sir, my question is more on to ask you from, you know, an investor perspective. You know, with clear emphasis on gas going ahead, you know, in the proportion of the country's growth. So how do you see basically, you know, GAIL over a 2-3-year perspective, you know, in terms of volumes, one? And secondly, sir, more on profitability, because that will give us investors better perspective on how we are shaping up for the next 3-5 years, sir.
I think, for gas marketing, I have said we are likely to grow by 5%-7%. 5% I have given for this year. Gas transmission, we have said for coming 2-3 years, we may grow by 10-12 MMSCMD. So it... From the perspective of growth, I have already said how it will-- how we are likely to grow.
Yes, sir. I mean, you have, but if you can, throw some perspective on financial numbers as well, it'll be helpful to get a better understanding.
So, marketing, I have already given you guidance for this year, INR 4,500 crore minimum, and next year you can assume maybe in similar range, INR 4,500 crore-INR 5,000 crore, in same range.
Okay. Okay, fine. Okay, fine, sir. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take that as the last question. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you very much, and it was a pleasure talking to you. Hopefully, we have tried to give answers to your questions the way you expected. In case there was some more clarification or input is required, our team in management and investor relations cell is available. They will be able to answer your questions. And I once again, thanks to you for taking interest and participating. Thank you very much.
On behalf of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.