Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Q3 FY 2024 earnings conference call of GAIL (India) Limited, hosted by ICICI Securities. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your touch-tone phones. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Pankaj from ICICI Securities. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Aditya. Thanks, everyone, for taking the time out from your regular calls to attend the GAIL post Q3 FY 2024 result call. We have with us from the management, Shri Rakesh Kumar Jain, the CFO of the company, along with other members of the senior management of GAIL. So without further ado, I'll hand over to the management for their opening remarks, and then we can get into the Q&A. Sir, over to you.
Thank you, Pankaj, and a very good afternoon to all of you. I have with me my colleagues from various departments who are heading critical department like sourcing, marketing, and colleagues from finance. Once again, good afternoon and warm welcome to GAIL's earnings call for Q3 financial year 2024. At the outset, I thank you all for attending this earnings call. GAIL's results for quarter ending 31 December 2023 have been declared today. I would touch briefly on the major highlights for quarter, and then we can open the question and answer session. GAIL's gross turnover increased by 8% to INR 34,168 crore in Q3, financial year 2024, as against INR 31,728 crore in Q2 financial year 2024.
The major reasons for the increase is the robust physical performance in all the major business segments of GAIL. This quarter witnessed increase in natural gas prices and better realization in liquid hydrocarbon segment. Profit before tax during the quarter increased to INR 3,694 crore, as against INR 3,130 crore in Q2 financial year 2024, and this is up by 18%. This is mainly due to increase in LHC price realization, higher petrochemical sales, improved gas marketing margins, and reduction in input gas cost for petrochemical segment. Further, during this quarter, we received higher dividends as compared to quarter two. We received INR 403 crore as against INR 217 crore in quarter two, financial year 2024.
Profit after tax during the quarter increased to INR 2,843 crore, as against INR 2,405 crore in Q2 financial year 2024. That is up by, again, 18%, and the reasons are same as I enumerated for profit before tax. If you talk of nine-month basis, GAIL clocked the turnover of INR 98,034 crore, as against INR 111,290 crore in corresponding period of the last year, and there is a decrease of 12%. This decrease is mainly due to decrease in gas prices as compared to last nine months of last financial year. However, this is partly offset by increase in transmission tariff, volumes in natural gas marketing, natural gas transmission, and petrochemicals.
There is increase in profit before tax by 45% to INR 8,713 crore, as against INR 5,993 crores, and PAT by 42% to INR 6,660 crores, as against INR 4,698 crores. Physical performance I have to share with you. Total gas marketing volume was 98.14 MMSCM in Q3, as against 96.96 MMSCM in Q2 financial year 2024. And this increase is mainly due to increase in volume, overseas volume. Natural gas transmission volume was 121.54 MMSCM in Q3, as against 120.31 MMSCM in Q2. The average capacity utilization was 58%, approximately.
The increase in transmission volume is attributed to increase in shippers volume by approximate 1.26 MMSCMD. Volume of production increased by 45 TMT to 205 TMT in Q3 financial year 2024, as against 160 TMT in Q2. Capacity utilization in last quarter, that is Q3, was 101%, 101%. Liquid hydrocarbon production was 249 TMT, as against 238 TMT in previous quarter. The capacity utilization was 69%. LPG transmission was almost flat, that is, 1095 TMT, as against 1114 TMT in previous quarter, and capacity utilization was 95%.
The consolidated financials for Q3 as against Q2, the consolidated turnover in the current quarter stood at INR 34,678 crore, versus INR 32,952 crore, up by 5%. PBT in the current quarter is INR 4,075 crore, versus INR 3,138 crore in Q2, up by 30%. Profit after tax is INR 3,195 crore, versus INR 2,444 crore in Q2, it is up by 31%. For nine months basis, consolidated financials, the consolidated turnover for nine months in financial year 2024 is stood at INR 1,00,385 crore, versus INR 1,12,445 crore in the corresponding period in previous year.
The profit before tax for nine months in financial year 2024, up by 45% to INR 9,496 crore, as against INR 6,567 crore in corresponding period of previous year. Profit after tax, up by 49% to INR 7,431 crore for nine months in financial year 2024, versus INR 4,982 crore in corresponding period for the previous year. Now, I will share the performance of GAIL CNG. GAIL having infrastructure of 165 CNG stations and 290,000+ DPNG connections in the six GA allocated GAIL. During the current quarter, 8 new CNG stations and approximately 16,000 DPNG connections were added. The physical volume is 0.3 MMSCMD during the quarter.
In the next two years, GAIL targets to add over 100 new CNG stations and approximate 200,000 new DPNG connections. I will share now the performance of GAIL Gas. During the current quarter, Q3, financial year 2023-24, turnover is stood at INR 3,145 crore, as against INR 2,755 crore in Q2 financial year 2024. There is increase of 15%, mainly on account of increase in bulk trading, quantity by 12%, CNG quantity by 11%. Profit before tax is stood at INR 153 crore, as against INR 57 crore in Q2 financial year 2024. There is increase of 168%.
Profit after tax is stood at INR 113 crore, as against INR 42 crore in Q2 financial year 2024, increased by 169% for reasons as explained above. As explained, the physical volume increased to 7.18 MMSCMD in Q3, financial year 2024. Increase of 10% mainly on account of increase in bulk trading quantity by 12% and CNG quantity by 11%. During third quarter, GAIL Gas, along with JV subsidiaries, has added 17,731 new DPNG connections and 29 CNG stations, and having infrastructure of 900,000 DPNG connections, GAIL Gas as a group company. If I have to talk about GAIL Gas, GAIL Gas has almost 500,000 DPNG connections.
Bengal Gas Company Limited, as on 31 December 2023, BGCL is having 13 CNG stations, 237-kilometer pipeline, and 8,000 numbers of domestic PNG connection infrastructure is made available. During the current quarter, one CNG station and 22-kilometer pipeline were added. Project performance: Mumbai-Nagpur-Jharsuguda pipeline activities are moving in full swing, and pipeline is anticipated to be completed by October 2024. Jagdishpur-Haldia-Dhamra pipeline , out of 3,289 kilometer, 2,951 kilometer pipeline has been commissioned, and remaining part is expected to be completed progressively by June 2024. Srikakulam-Angul pipeline, Angul main pipeline, that is of 420 kilometer. Work is under progress and likely to be completed by June 2024. Spur lines are anticipated to be completed by September 2024.
Gurdaspur-Jammu natural gas pipeline, the pipeline having a length of 106 km and is likely to be completed by July 2026. Dhamra-Haldia pipeline, length of 253 km, the work is under progress and expected to be completed by June 2024. PDHPP at Usar, as you know, capacity of this plant is 500 KTA, is expected to be completed by April 2025. PP at Pata, capacity 60,000 KTPA, expected to be completed by July 2024. IPA at Usar, 50 KTPA, expected to be completed by December 2025. GAIL Mangalore Petrochemicals Limited, capacity 1,250 KTPA, completion date by March 2025. CapEx for Q3 financial year 2024 is INR 1,730 crore, mainly on pipelines, petrochemicals, CGD projects, operational CapEx, and others.
Now, I would like to share some segmental outlook for short to medium term. So far in the financial year, our gas marketing business has exhibited robust performance. In earlier conference call, we had given a guidance that no matter what, GAIL will be able to earn at least INR 3,500 crore as a marketing margin in the gas marketing segment during financial year 2023-24. In nine-month period, ending 31 December 2023, due to better arbitrage, various optimization measures like time swaps, destination swaps, and shipping optimization, we have already earned gas marketing margin of INR 4,300 crore, which has surpassed our earlier guidance.
With these revised numbers, our gas marketing margin is expected to exceed the INR 5,500 crore mark by the end of this financial year. In the similar way, we believe that the gas marketing spread for 2024-25 will be around INR 4,000 crore, and for financial year 2025-26, will be around INR 4,500 crore. And that will be minimum we expect to earn. Gas transmission volume for financial year 2023-24, we expect it to be 120 MMSCMD on an average basis. I'm talking of yearly average, and we also expect when we close this financial year, we'll be having an average rate of at least 123-124.
In this regard, I would also like to inform that to my investors community, that in Q3 financial year 2024, the average transmission volume is stood at 121.54 MMSCMD. That is up from 120.31 MMSCMD in Q2 financial year 2024. In next quarter, we expect to transmit slightly higher volume so as to reach an average of 120 MMSCMD for full financial year. Further, during next two to three years, there will be increase in transmission volume by 12-15 MMSCMD on a year-on-year basis. Polymer production is stood at 205 TMT as against 160 TMT in last quarter. In this quarter, we were able to post a PBT of INR 62 crore as against loss of INR 160 crore.
As we were mentioning to our analyst community that we expect when we end this financial year, we'll be around at breakeven level on a yearly basis for petrochemical and Pata. This will happen due to optimization of cost, input gas cost, improved operational efficiency, and because of we are able to run the Pata plant at more than 100% capacity. Further, in Q4 of financial year 2023-24, we plan to optimize further our gas sourcing and likely, as I said, likely to close at breakeven level. For next financial year, not only normalize petrochemical operations, but we are, we expect to earn a reasonable profit from Pata petrochemicals.
Liquid hydrocarbon production stood at 730 TMT during nine months of financial year 2024, and during Q3, we were able to post a PBT of INR 257 crore as against loss of INR 17 crore in Q2, due to better price realization. In financial year 2024, production level is estimated to be slightly higher as compared to previous years. Also, to protect our margins in this segment, GEL is effectively involved in setting hedging for LPG products. I think that's all from my side, regarding the overview of performance and project status. Now I invite you to have any clarification and questions on the results for Q3 and nine months ending December 31, 2023. Thank you. Over to you, Pandey.
Thank you, sir. Aditya, can we open up the Q&A for questions and answers?
Yes, sir. Yes, sir. Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question, press star and one on your touch-tone telephone. If you need to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to mute themselves while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question is from the line of Puneet Gulati from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Thank you so much, and congratulations on great numbers. My first question is on your guidance for FY 25. Why are you guiding for a lower marketing margin for FY 25 versus 24, or are you just being cautious?
Puneet, we have shared the minimum marketing margin which we are likely to earn. We also... for this year, if I have to share, we share, said that we will earn at least INR 3,500 crore.
Right.
We are saying this will be minimum, which we expect to earn. Then based on the market situations, the arbitrage available, the optimization we are able to do, we make better of business. But for guidance purpose, we are considering a number of INR 4,000 crore.
Understood. So it's fair to assume that there is 100% probability of a INR 4,000 crore marketing margin?
That's what we expect.
Okay. Secondly, if you can also talk a bit about what's driving the improvement on the petrochemical side, if it was a recent improvement, what is the optimization that you are doing that is helping you on the petrochemical?
Actually, first, when we were running the plant before this quarter, it was sub-optimal production capacity we were running. So in last quarter, we were able to operate the plant at 101%. Once you operate the plant at full capacity or more than the full capacity, lot of positive things happen. And one of the positive thing is that specific energy consumption in terms of RMMBC consumption for one metric ton has gone down significantly. Second, the fixed cost allocation is to a higher quantity. Third, we, through our portfolio, because in our portfolio we have, we have options to have make availability in gases which suits to the Pata petrochemical project production and the viability, we are able to do that.
All these factors have enabled the profitability in Q3 for the current financial year.
Okay. And lastly, if you may, can also talk about the opportunities on increasing your volumes for marketing business. Are you sourcing new gas? What kind of, you know, gas contracts and gas pricing are you seeing in this? What is the new volume plan that you expect to do over next year?
So our chairman has already said to various occasions that he intends to source 7-8 MMTPA of additional gas for our portfolio, and maybe 1-2 MMTPA on yearly basis. In this regard, already there was an announcement that we have signed a contract for 1 MMTPA, which is going to be available to us from, from 2046, calendar year 2046. We are also in advanced stage of discussions with various suppliers, and very soon we may be able to inform you when we conclude the deals. So we are on the job to source the gas so as to have broader portfolio and do more marketing. Okay.
Thank you. That's very helpful. Thank you so much, and all good.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, please limit your question to two per participant. Should you have a follow-up question, we request you to rejoin the queue. Our next question is from the line of Sabri Hazarika from Emkay Global. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon, sir, and, congratulations on good set of numbers. So I have two questions. The first one is relating to marketing. So, so from what we understand, generally, the marketing margin in APM gas is, something like, INR 200 per MSCM, which is like around, $0.1 per MMBTU. And in LNG, it generally ranges, somewhere around like twenty, twenty cents per MMBTU. So if we do a rough calculation, we generally understand around INR 2,000 crore-INR 500 crore kind of marketing, EBITDA, for the year.
So I'm just wondering that when you are like taking INR 2,000 crore, so does it mean any of this arbitrage opportunity they are like more recurring on in nature, or do you do you think has there been any like structural increase in your marketing margin or anything of that sort of nature?
Actually, you are arriving at these numbers based on the base price, which includes the second fixed or some fixed kind of marketing margin. That is one part of it, but our portfolio does not include the APM gas and RLNG, which we market at fixed margin. Our portfolio also includes significant portfolio also includes wherein we have an option and opportunity when we are able to market the gas on a midterm to long-term basis on a higher marketing margin than what you have estimated. That is one thing. But apart from the marketing side, it is also sourcing side.
I also narrated during my brief that we are able to do a lot of things, through which we are able to reduce our cost of gas sold, like time swaps, destination swaps, ship-to-ship transfers, a lot of things which we do and all these things, and, and, and then we're taking this position in financial markets, the paper, paper positions, because we have a lot of, lot of portfolio available to us. So all these things enables us to have at least a number of INR 4,000 crore, which we have in the last two, three years. Because, every year when we are giving the guidance, we are working out these numbers, like before this year, we said INR 3,000 crores, we surpassed even the worst kind of situation.
This year we said INR 3,500 crore. We again went back to our calculation sheets and saw, can we achieve it? And then we have done it. So similarly, for next years, we see that the gas marketing volumes are growing, growth is there in the business, and also we are able to take the benefit of lot of options which we are exercising because we have a lot of flexible gas, at least from the United States.
Right. Marketing volumes will also be around 5-6, or it will be even more than that?
We expect marketing volume to grow at least by 5%-6%.
Okay. And second question is relating to your transmission business. So, the KG Basin tariff order just came back, and they have, like, increased the gas cost, gas pricing assumption in the cost update. I think that's a long-term average of APM and also this is the final, or do you think there could be further update to the gas cost assumption?
I understand you are talking of KG Basin tariff, is that right?
Yeah, yeah. That's, I mean, that's the, that's why the assumed assumption. But does it mean that even for Unified Tariff and integrated tariff, also that assumption may be taken or…?
I think, I think if you go back to the tariff order, there is no integration of any gas assumption in KG Basin tariff, because there is no compressor expansion. There is no fuel consumption in KG Basin tariff. So, that has no link with the tariff of HVJ, which is part of the Unified Tariff, where compressor fuel is being used. That is a separate issue.
We were the gas price, and we were the gas-
Gas price. The gas price, how it impacts in tariff, unless it is used as a compressor fuel or transmission loss, only these two things happen.
Okay, got it. Got it. Thank you so much. It is under review only and separately for you.
Right. Right. Right.
Thank you so much, and all good.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Maulik Patel from Quintess. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, a few questions. Sir, now you do not have any of this APM gas for your gas compression business, sorry, in the gas transmission business. So, is this on a normalized cost on transmission segment? If I understood you, you are telling there is no gas allocation, and at what cost we are booking, is that right?
Yeah. So since there is no gas allocation, we are sourcing the gas for our compressor fuels. We are trying to source the gas from domestic sources, and to the extent it is available, or else we use the RLNG for our compressor fuels, which is at prevalent market price.
You are using around 1.7 MMSCMD of gas for your compressor business, right? Approximately.
Right. Right.
Now, this quarter onwards, it will be around the market prices, whether it's an SPHT or it will be in a spot LNG.
Right. Spot LNG or the gas available out of our portfolio.
Okay. And when do you expect that order to come now? I mean, because earlier, the assumption was that within a year, the regulator will revisit the assumptions what they made into this integrated tariff at $3.5. When do you expect that to have it again?
Actually, we are following with PNGRB, and we expect them to take a decision soon, but we understand that there is issue of member legal there.
Okay. Yeah.
Probably that is delaying that process.
Oh, got it. Sir, last question, this is on the petrol side. Now you have turned into that profitability, and this quarter, the LNG prices are again lower than the previous quarter. Is this a fair to assume that your profitability will substantially improve in this quarter? And, sir, any update on that, the acquisitions, what we have done couple of quarters back, that INR 2,000 crore, which we are supposed to spend, when do you plan to start operation in that?
Yeah. So it is fair to assume that profitability for petrochemical project or plant, Pata, will certainly improve as compared to Q3. And definitely, and we expect it to be the level of Q3, or rather, we will be at breakeven level for Pata Petrochemicals on yearly basis. Second question is with respect to the plant which we have recently acquired, that is, JBF Petrochemicals. We expect the plant to be commissioned by March 2025.
Okay. And so you were spending around INR 2,000 crore in that, right?
We have acquired that through NCLT process at approximately INR 2,100 crore rupees.
Okay.
Then we are expected to incur around INR 2,000 crore to bring it to the commissioning level.
Sir, the PDS plant will also commission around that time only, next year?
Yeah, yeah. PDS will be commissioned mechanically by April 2025.
April 25. So commercial will be take another six more months to complete it?
Maybe three months.
Okay, great, sir. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Yeah.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Vikas Jain from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question, sir. So, couple of questions. Firstly, on your volumes. Now, this 121 volume that we are seeing, could you just remind us how much of this is outside the main pipeline, which is the, you know, the unified pipeline? How much of this is outside that, like the Kochi, Mangalore, and I think-
Maybe, maybe 10% of the volume is out of the unified network. KTM, BPL, and KG Basin, a large volume, rest are very, very minimal. So KG Basin may be around 4-5 again, again, this 4-5, you know, KG Basin, so 8-10 million volume, 8, 9, and then another Agartala region, which are small networks, which are not part of this unified network.
Okay. No, because what I'm asking is that if the kind of growth that we are talking about, if we are at about 110 or so, we get another 8-9 MMSCMD of growth, and we would be already at 75% utilization, right, for the main network. So in that case, incremental volume increase could also lead to tariff adjustments, or how does that work?
Vikas, you know, the tariff regulation. Actually, we don't expect here that incremental volume will lead to reduction in our revenue, because regulations are such that any under recovery of past years, we have a right to recover from any over transmission in coming years. So there will be years when we have under recovery. In past we had years. So those under recovery will be first offsetting from oversupplies if whenever it happens. So there is no question, even if we reach 75% level, that we need to pass on.
Okay. Okay. Yeah, that's a useful clarification. And the other thing was, this CapEx, that we see, sir, for this, for nat gas transmission segment, that's gone up significantly. So there are... this is because all of this quarter, the complete, allocation is gone, or there was part of it which was around?
Yeah, yeah. This quarter, Vikas, the allocation is totally gone now in two stages. One, I think in August, first October, and second December sixteenth. So with effect from December sixteenth, we don't have any allocation of APM gas for use in compressor fuel.
So that is December sixteenth. So next quarter, if anything, OpEx will be even higher. Because why I'm asking that, sir, is, we are right now—I mean, last year there was this thing about the OpEx being one-off because, you know, there was a, you know, a higher, much higher price for LNG, $40 per LNG that you had to use and all of that. But even now that I see, most likely next quarter, OpEx from gas transmission will be at a much higher level, because you said that December sixteenth, when it went, full effect will be in January to March.
Much higher, higher.
Because higher-
Because the quantity reduces only 0.2. Yeah, it will be at higher level, not at much higher level.
0.2 of a base of 1.7, right?
Right.
So 1.5, say 1.7, so that is what that is. So about 10%-15% kind of an increase.
higher, much higher.
Okay. And, any reason why, LPG realizations look a little low? Any reason, Sinha Saab, or you can think of that you can... Because this appears to be a little bit of a discount to what I thought was the market price.
Can you come back again?
LPG segment realization. Any reason why, they appear to be a bit low, or you don't have any specific reason you can think of?
No, we don't have, because it's all market driven, import parity price, and we don't have any control over it. So there is no specific reason prices are in that range.
Okay. And finally, where do you see... So when you say this 12 MMSCMD growth, that in your opinion is more you are talking because I think you said over the next three years, average of 10, 12 MMSCMD growth is what you see. So that's more like we should be thinking of more from a perspective of CAGR rather than, you know, specifically next year, 10, 12 MMSCMD coming. Is that how you think about it?
Yeah, let me tell you. Currently, there is a disruption in supply for one of pipeline, Dadri to Panipat, IOCL supply, right? So we expect the 3 MMSCMD volume at least to come back. Increase in offtake. Every year there is a growth usually by 12%-13%. Even if you take roughly 70% our market share, 3 MMSCMD will come from there. IOCL, Baroni, we expect to come 0.5, and the general increase. So we have the bigger data from where this 10-12 will be available. I have given only 2-3, 2-3 to you. 7 MMSCMD we have to share.
Why I say that, sir, because 10% increase, you are, when you are increasing 10%, Indian gas demand is also rising effectively close to that. That is something that we have not seen for many, many years, and there have been years-
You are right. We have not seen, rather, for many, many years in our country remained stagnated. But this year, if you have seen, there is a good amount of growth. In fact-
Yes, sir, which is of a low base, a lot of those price sensitivity.
I agree with you. I agree with you, but-
The very high prices of last year due to the, you know, spot LNG prices being-
Right, right. Right, right. But we expect that 10 million is possible.
Okay. Okay. Thank you so much, sir. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Viveka nand Subbaraman from Ambit Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions. The first one is on the petchem business. Sir, are you able to share the price of gas, the input gas that you sourced in 3Q, and what is the assumption that you've made for 2025, as far as the depends on full year profitability is concerned? Second thing, could you help us understand the status of the volumes that were under dispute, the shortfall that you had from the Gazprom trading entity, and is there any compensation you received there and resolution plan there? Thank you.
We expect that firstly, it is not the input gas which, based on which we can assume that Pata will be profitable on a yearly basis. It's a function of both the sales price and also the input gas cost. So if you are to ask me based on current level of pricing, petrochemical, $8-$9 is a very good price to input cost, gas cost for petrochemical, and we are able to source and supply at that level to petrochemical. Second assumption is that, the pricing levels of petrochemical were lower even in this quarter as compared to Q2. Even if you maintain the price level of Q2, which were higher by INR 800 per metric ton, we'll be at a good profitable level, for and in Q4 and also the next financial year.
Okay. So just to clarify, at $8 per MMBtu gas-
Not eight, $8-$9, because it is always varying.
Okay. At current spreads, $8-$9 will be the breakeven point in FY 2025. Is that-
Breakeven, breakeven level is higher than 9. We are able to source and supply at 8-9. That's what I told.
Sorry, I'm unable to understand. You said that your petchem business will break even in FY 2025. My question was, what input gas price that you are assuming for this breakeven?
I never said that our financial year 25, we are doing breakeven. I said we will be in profit in next financial year. First thing, I said that in order to have the profitability, this is a function of 2 things. One is the selling price, and second, the input gas cost. We are able to source and supply to quarter petrochemicals around $8-$9, sometimes 9, 9.5, sometimes 8.5. And what I also said that within this quarter, our petrochemical prices were lower. Even if you compare like Q2 by INR 8,000 per metric ton. So even if we maintain those prices of this level, we expect those prices to be available, and if we are able to supply at $8-$9, we will be not breakeven, we'll be in a reasonable profitability for quarter petrochemicals.
Understood. Very clear. My other question is unanswered.
What is that?
That's on the GAIL Gas. What's the legal resolution there till now, and also on the marketing side-
You are asking? What you are asking?
Compulsion.
Compulsion. Sorry, I missed that. So that is it. That has been, that case is sub judice, so I, I cannot say anything on that.
Okay. And is there any assumption that you have made with respect to any resolution in the guidance given for FY 25 on the marketing side?
Any, any?
Any resolution? And what about the cargoes from Gazprom? Are you getting it now?
Anything which are contingent, we have not considered.
Okay. And lastly, are you getting cargoes now from Gazprom, the new entity?
Yes.
Okay, but no shortfall is being met, right? The cargoes that were not available.
Shortfall is not yet supplied by them.
Okay, thank you. All the best.
Thank you. Our next question is on the line of Anitha Shetty from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir, this is Mayank. Couple of questions on the CapEx side first. Can you just talk us through in terms of your full year CapEx for FY 25, and how much of that will be incrementally now spent on the petchem front? And secondly, if you can just talk about a bit around the long-term sourcing contracts. Obviously, you signed one, but how does that kind of impact the overall spreads that you were talking about on the marketing side? Thank you.
The new contracts you are talking about, how it will impact?
Yeah. So when does that impact kick in, in terms of earnings for you? I think FY 26 or onwards, or does it-
Yeah, yeah. The supplies are to start from 2026 onwards, so therefore, those, those impact will only come from 2026 onwards.
Sir, will they be back-to-back contracts as well, or do you think there will be kind of like we have seen over the last 5-7 years, some of that-
Actually, now back-to-back, the era is over. So though it is always good for you and then to have a sustainable kind of thing, we also wish to have that, and we'll try to do that. But nowadays, you have a lot of opportunities available. It depends what kind of prices you are sourced and what kind of market it is there. There are a lot of market here. So we, we expect it because we have a good price under the back; we expect to have not back-to-back. We expect to have more than what marketing margin we are earning today.
So just out of curiosity, in terms of the volumes that you're thinking on a portfolio basis now, like in five years time or so, what percentage could look like on back-to-back and what percentage you will take exposure on your balance sheet?
So, it is difficult to allocate because the supplies are to start from 26. I can share about current portfolios, but since it is too far from today, we'll start marketing for those contracts now, because we have recently signed the contract. So now we go to the market, and we expect we want those contracts to be signed on back-to-back basis with a good margin. Now, when we go to the market, then only we'll be able to know what kind of exposure we'll be carrying. But there will not be any exposure because that's at a very good price we have entered into those contracts.
Got it. Okay.
With respect to your question on CapEx, in financial year 2024-25, we target to invest INR 17,000 crore of CapEx. Right, are you getting?
Yeah. So, sir, can you just help us give us a bit of a back breakdown because the numbers are-
Yeah, around INR 3,000 crore on pipeline projects. INR 4,400 crore on petrochemicals. Around INR 3,000 crore, we target to incur on net zero. Around INR 750 crore on operational CapEx, and around INR 5,000 crore equity contributions to JV and subsidiaries.
This petchem CapEx will be largely driven on the PDH plants as well as the PTA plant. There is no shutdowns or anything for the Pata plant, like from 50-
Yeah, largely on Usar portfolio, especially effects we incur for PTA will be forming part of, you know, equity contribution to JV subsidiaries.
Okay. Yeah. So sir, no major shutdowns or anything planned for FY21, correct?
No, we are not expecting anything like major shutdown. Any routine shutdown may happen, but not as of now, we are not anticipating.
Got it. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Manikantha Garre from Franklin Templeton, India. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you for providing me the opportunity, sir. Hope I'm audible. I have a couple of questions. So one is on the 1 million ton LNG contract which have with Vitol recently. Vitol is a commodity trader, and this deal is probably different from other deals or any LNG offtaker in India, including who has taken so far. Is there any difference in dealing with a commodity trader versus dealing directly with a EMP company in terms of probably flow or destination flexibility? Are there other terms because of which you are dealing with a commodity trader now? That's my first question.
Yeah. Good afternoon, this is Kaviraj. I'm heading LNG growth. To come to your question, we don't see there will be any difference between an offtake type done with directly a producer and the trader or for that matter, portfolio. Okay? But different players come with different plus and minus. Okay? In this case, we got a couple of good flexibilities, which we thought would be very much useful in our LNG portfolio, so we went ahead. Nothing significant, you know, different from other suppliers.
Can we expect that the flow period also would be more or less in line with what we are doing with the benefit of the producers, or there would be any difference there? Flexibility.
I don't want to say anything on this, but definitely the slope is very competitive. I don't want to give a judgmental qualification saying that it is better than producer or vice versa. All I can say is it will be very competitive.
Got it. So, and, I mean, my second question is, more of, more of a follow-up to what, Sabri was asking earlier on gas marketing side. Sir has mentioned that, time swaps and destination swaps and, ship-to-ship transfers are probably the key reasons for, the rising guidance in gas marketing business and better performance than what we were expecting. But, if you have to go back maybe four or five years back also, we were doing all of these, then also, right? So what is the key change that has happened in, in these swaps or, ship-to-ship transfers, you know, that has happened over this period? If you can throw a bit more color on that.
And also, if you can, along with that, provide how much percentage or how much of marketing volumes were on swaps on quarterly run rate basis in FY 2024, for example, versus, let's say, three years back in FY 2020.
Actually, one significant difference, what you are asking five years back and today is that largely we were marketing our volume in overseas market because the demand was not to the current level. Now, the demand in the domestic market is there, and we are able to consume all our, sourcing from international market in domestic market. So, so when we were doing those swaps, largely to mitigate our volume risk, not to, not to optimize the cost. Right? That was one factor, which is different than before. Five years back, the demand as compared to today was less. Is that accurate?
Yeah. Yes.
What more?
No. Yeah, just to add, as our director finally rightly said, in the past, we did swap for a different objective.
Okay.
But currently we are doing swap as part of our LNG portfolio, you know, operations. Meaning thereby, the swap which we do is on a case-to-case basis. Earlier, we used to do a swap for, let's say, one year or two years, something like that. But today, perhaps almost every alternate cargo, we try to create value by doing a swap. And that is the reason there is a spike in this value. Am I able to answer this?
Yes, sir. Just an extension to that, sir has, you know, started off with saying that, we, we have transferred more volumes to India versus, selling more of them earlier,
Yeah, yeah.
on the international market, right? So, so, do we have to take it that, we are able to earn more margins on this India sold volumes, relatively than, what we were getting earlier, when we were selling them on international markets?
Yeah.
Yeah, yeah, obviously.
I said during my case that the marketing margin is not only a function of, you know, what price you are marketing. It is also a function of what gas cost, cost of gas sold you are able to arrive at. So when we did, we did optimization, we were able to reduce our cost of gas sold significantly. So when when you, one of the analyst are asking that you have fixed kind of marketing margin, we are not able to arrive at. So they are working out from top line. I'm telling we are able to reduce our cost. So both things have played role, not only the gas, right, that which we marketed and what gas, cost of gas sold we are able to have our costings.
Those two things are working, and that's how we are able to have good marketing margin, and we continue to do so.
Understand, sir. If you can just squeeze in one last question related to this only. How many trading hubs have you created, currently, globally, from the gas marketing division?
We have only one in Singapore.
Okay. So apart from India, so there is only one in Singapore. Nothing in the U.S. or European markets?
No, US, they handle the operation of the LNG contracts. That involves trading of gas, upstream gas, whenever we face some operational difficulty. So in true sense, it is not a trading hub.
Understood. Thank you so much for answering my questions.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amarnath from Ministry of Finance of Oman. Please go ahead.
Sir, hi. I hope I am audible?
Yeah.
Yeah. My first question was, with respect to the value unlocking activities which management and the board was thinking, whether it relates to CGD or with respect to merger or reverse merger with your petrochemical side. Any update you can give on this regard at the moment?
Actually, we have not come out with any such kind of value creations through, you know, disinvestment of CGD or petrochemical. Yes, we are internally evaluating, and we'll take this call at an appropriate time. But till now, we have not concluded what we'll do about investment in CGD, and there is no thought about petrochemical.
One thing we're just trying to understand now, every year the capital expenditure towards the petrochemical side, they keep on increasing, whereas the uncertainty relating to that business compared to our main business of gas transmission and marketing is quite high. As you correctly said, the output price is not in our control. Only thing we can do is something with respect to our input price. So what is the rationale behind so much of expansion towards the petrochemical side of the business and increasing the overall uncertainty of them?
Okay. First thing is that India, Indian demand on petrochemical side is lowest, if you compare with the world average per capita consumption, and even if you compare with the developed countries like China, significantly lower. Let us talk first, there is a demand. Second, with respect to uncertainty in terms of realization, the current investment which we are doing in Usar is on PDHPP, the input for which is propane, and the output polypropylene is directly having correlation with propane price. So we, we expect to earn a certain delta of margins between input and output price. So our investment is quite cautious based on long-term analysis of input and output price, and we, like we currently have some uncertainty about the, like, part of petrochemical and, we will have consistent profit in the new investment which we are making for PDHPP Usar.
So just to interact, making the profit is not all the thing, is the allocation of the capital and the return on capital employed. Now, if you can help us to understand, compared to the capital allocation towards your main business and compared to that to the petrochemical business, how much return on capital do you earn from that business of the petrochemical so far, on an average?
Actually, we are there to invest. Currently, we have been able to win all the authorizations of pipeline which came as it comes out. We, our call, are not in a position to decide and lay the pipeline. We certainly can look for any opportunity for investment in pipeline projects, but at least that should be available. So currently, there is no opportunity available, and we are the only entity in last few years who have, through PNGRB, won all the authorization. We were rather sometimes single entity to have bid and got the authorization. So we are there to invest in our core business, that is laying, building, operating the natural gas pipeline.
But at the same time, if we find there are opportunities for investment in other business segments, and which we continue to do, because ultimately we have to, we have to find growth. And if we find that growth in some of the business is sustainable, so that's how we decide and allocate our capital.
Yeah, understood. But if that capital allocation towards your petrochemical, which apparently have much lower ROCE... It's keeping your entire company's ROCE quite drastically down, you know? That, that is, that is the point I just wanted to have.
Yeah, I understand.
We should have an allocation.
Your experience is of quarter petrochemicals. That's how, based on that, based on the availability of project at Usar, which is on a different field. So in order to not to have the uncertainty, we have gone for propane dehydrogenation, not gas-based plant.
And any idea about this hydrogen plant related investment, where we are? And also, what is your reason for this expansion to that side of the business? So it is very, at a very infancy stage relating to hydrogen. But last call, I have understood from you, that you guys are thinking kind of in diversification, towards this, non-gas, non-fossil fuel related.
Sir, we regret that you return to the question queue for follow-up question, as several participants are waiting.
This is my second question only.
Yes.
Sir, this is my just second question. You allowed me to do asking two question, right?
Okay.
This was my second question only.
So, so regarding your question on hydrogen, we are only, only putting up a pilot project at our one of the unit. And when you ask why? Because energy transition is taking place, and whether we like it or not, the energy transition will happen. So in order to be future-ready, so we, we are as a pilot project, we are putting one of the hydrogenation plant at hydrogen plant at our one of the units, and, and the investment-
Hello?
Yeah. You got it?
Yeah. Okay. Thank you, sir.
Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for the day. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Probal Sen for closing comments.
Thank you very much. I would like to thank everyone for sharing their valuable time to attend the call, and thank you so much to the management for taking the time to give such detailed answers to all of the queries that have been put. Appreciate that. We can end the call now. Have a very nice day, everyone. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of ICICI Securities, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.