Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Q3 FY 2026 earnings conference call hosted by ICICI Securities Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Probal Sen from ICICI Securities Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Palak. Welcome everyone to the Q3 FY 20 26 conference call of GAIL (India). We have with us members of the senior management headed by Shri Rakesh Kumar Jain, the Director (Finance) of the company, and other senior executives in this team. Without further ado, I'll hand it over to him for opening remarks, post which we'll have a detailed Q&A. Sir, over to you.
Thank you, Probal. Good morning everyone, and a very warm welcome to our Q3 FY 2026 earnings conference call. Here with me, I'm joined by my senior colleagues from various sections of the departments of GAIL (India) Limited. The quarter under review has been marked by continuous volatility in global energy markets due to uncertain weather conditions and evolving geopolitical dynamics, which has kept the HH and spot prices on the higher side. Despite the adversities, GAIL's natural gas transmission volume has shown recovery as compared to earlier quarters, marked by elevated consumption by fertilizer, refinery, and CGD sectors. In addition, GAIL has been able to seize the first-mover advantage in preceding nine months by securing additional tie-ups with CGD customers, which has resulted in new tie-ups of approximately 2 MMSCMD.
I find it worth mentioning that during calendar year 2025, more than 15,000 capacity transactions have been booked through GAIL's open pipeline access portal, which is encouraging for us to continue to build and invest in the natural gas infrastructure of the country. Let me begin with business updates for the quarter. As you are aware, the PNGRB has issued an interim revision of natural gas pipeline tariff for GAIL's integrated natural gas pipeline network from INR 58.61-INR 65.69 per MMBTU, and this is effective from 1st January 2026. This represents an increase of approximately 12.1%, leading to a projected impact of approximately INR 1,200 crore per annum. GAIL has filed a review petition that is post-announcement of tariff. We reviewed the tariff, and we filed a review petition on 26 December 2025, seeking an increase of INR 15 per MMBTU to the interim revision.
Let me give you we submitted approximately INR 78. We got INR 65.69. Effectively, there was approximately INR 12 deduction, but when we filed the review petition, it became INR 15 on the same principles because, as you know, the tariff is worked out on discounted cash flow methodology. Any delay in tariff approvals also results in an increase in tariff ability of GAIL. GAIL has the ability to get more. So therefore, the INR 12 has become INR 15, and we filed a review petition for an increase of INR 15 per MMBTU to the interim tariff revision. Though the petition, GAIL expects truing up of the factors like OpEx, CapEx, transmission loss, revenue sharing in terms of the regulatory provisions, which have not been considered in the interim tariff order.
With effect from October 1st, 2025, GAIL has implemented statewise CST procurement of domestic gas from ONGC Gujarat to enhance tax efficiency for CGD customers.
GAIL is continuously looking for tax optimization. How can we do it for various sections or various customers so that we have the ability to give competitive prices? GAIL has been offered to set up two fertilizer plants along the MNJPL corridor. Apart from that, we will seek to go into the fertilizer sector; these plants will also act as an anchor load for MNJPL. The investment for these two plants is INR 21,000 crore. The said proposal is having an in-principle approval of the board, and the proposal is under evaluation stage now. GAIL Global (IFSC) Limited, which is GAIL's wholly-owned subsidiary, has successfully commenced operations within the first year of its operation by extending an intercorporate loan of INR 290 crore to Bengal Gas Company Limited.
GAIL sees renewable energy as a strategic growth opportunity and is undertaking a significant expansion of the existing clean energy portfolio of 145 MW we have. That is 118 MW of wind and 27 MW of solar. Several large projects are currently in various stages of development or under progress, including a 170 MW wind project in Maharashtra, a solar project of 100 MW and 600 MW in Uttar Pradesh, and approximately 35 MW captive use solar plants across various GAIL locations. Compressed biogas continues to be a strategic pillar of our clean energy portfolio. Following the successful commissioning of 5 tons per day CBG plants at Ranchi, the board has approved investment for establishing 6 CBG plants. These projects are part of GAIL's commitment to establish around 25-30 CBG plants across India, for which the company is proactively engaging with multiple state governments to secure land.
These initiatives reflect our strong commitment to strengthen India's energy security while accelerating the transition towards sustainable and clean energy solutions and enhancing long-term value creation. GAIL's retail LNG business continues to progress steadily with a plan to establish 29 LNG stations. Development of LNG stations at 5 locations is presently underway. Further, GAIL's CGD entities have already commissioned 13 LNG or LCNG stations, making an early step towards building a cleaner, long-haul transportation ecosystem in the country. As you know, this is one of the major consuming sectors and upcoming major LNG consuming sectors. I feel happy to inform our investors that the company has declared an interim dividend at the rate of 50% of face value for the financial year 2025/26. That is INR 5 per share. GAIL's results for the quarter ended on 31st December 2025 and have been declared on last Saturday.
I will briefly touch upon the major highlights for this quarter. Thereafter, we may open the session for queries. GAIL's turnover stood at INR 34,030 crore in Q3 financial year 26 as against INR 34,972 crore in quarter two financial year 26. Profit before tax in quarter three financial year 26 stood at INR 2,030 crore as against INR 2,823 crore in Q2 financial year 26. The profit after tax during the quarter stood at INR 1,603 crore as against INR 2,217 crore in Q2 financial year 26. Quarter three versus quarter three. That is quarter three financial year 26 versus quarter three financial year 25.
On a comparative quarter basis, GAIL achieved a turnover of INR 34,030 crore as against INR 34,907 crore in the corresponding period of last year. PBT stood at INR 2,030 crore as against INR 5,029 crore, and PAT stood at INR 1,603 crore as against INR 3,867 crore.
As you know, this is mainly because of an exceptional income we got last year in quarter three. That is INR 2,440 crore, which was recorded by the company on account of arbitration settlement with GMTS. Now, I will touch upon the physical performance during the quarter versus previous quarter. Gas marketing volume during the quarter stood at 103.98 MMSCMD as against 105.49 MMSCMD in Q2 financial year 26. Natural gas transmission volume improved to 125.45 MMSCMD in quarter three financial year 26 as against 123.59 MMSCMD in quarter two financial year 26. The average capacity utilization was 56%. Volume of production was almost flat at 219 TMT in Q3 financial year 26, which stood at 220 TMT in the previous quarter. LHC production stood at 199 TMT as against 221 TMT in the previous quarter.
LPG transmission was 1,188 TMT as against 1,167 TMT in the previous quarter. The capacity utilization was 103% during the quarter. Now, let me take you through the consolidated financial of Q3 financial year 26 versus Q2 financial year 26. The consolidated turnover in Q3 financial year 26 stood at INR 35,253 crore as against INR 35,594 crore in Q2 financial year 26. The PBT in quarter three financial year 26 stood at INR 2,165 crore as against INR 2,565 crore in Q2 financial year 26. The profit after tax in Q3 financial year 26 stood at INR 1,756 crore versus INR 1,972 crore in Q2 financial year 26. As you know, GAIL also is directly dealing with six CGDs.
Just to take you through the performance of those six CGDs, GAIL has six direct authorizations of six GAs, has an infrastructure of 215 CNG stations, and 4.64 lakh DPNG connections.
During the quarter, two new CNG stations and 15,990 new DPNG stations were added. The physical volume stood at 0.55 MMSCMD. In the next two years, GAIL targets to add around 85 new CNG stations and around 150,000 new DPNG connections. I will also take you through the performance of our 100% subsidiary GAIL Gas Limited. In Q3 financial year 26, the turnover of GAIL Gas stood at INR 3,292 crore as against INR 3,235 crore in Q2 financial year 26. PBT stood at INR 143 crore as against INR 148 crore in Q2 financial year 26. The decrease is mainly due to an increase in input gas cost, and exchange rate resulted in a reduction in margin. PAT stood at INR 106 crore as against INR 111 crore in Q2 financial year 26. The physical volume stood at 7.8 MMSCMD.
During quarter three financial year 26, GAIL Gas, along with its JV subsidiaries, has added 71,411 new DPNG connections and 9 CNG stations. GAIL Gas, with its JV subsidiaries, has an infrastructure of 1,246,000 DPNG connections and 674 CNG stations. I will also take you through the status of the ongoing project. As of December 2025, GAIL's operational natural gas pipeline length has crossed to 18,000 km. Calendar year 2026 will be an important year for project commissioning, with several major pipelines scheduled to come on stream like Mumbai, Nagpur, Jharsuguda, that is the remaining portion I am talking about, the Jagdishpur-Haldia project, KKBMPL phase two, and Gurdaspur-Jammu Pipeline. Together, these projects will significantly enhance reach, reliability, and regional balance in the national gas grid. GAIL is also actively considering participating in bidding for new petroleum and petroleum product pipelines, largely LPG pipelines. Petrochemicals project.
As regards to the petrochemical project, this calendar year will be important from the petrochemical project point of view as well. Major projects such as GAIL's 1,250 KTA PTA plant at GMPL, Mangaluru, 500 KTA PDHPP plant in Usar are scheduled to be commissioned during this calendar year, and 60 KTA PP plant at Pata is at a very advanced stage of commissioning, maybe commissioned in a day or so. CapEx for quarter three financial year 2026. During the quarter, a CapEx of INR 2,186 crore was incurred, out of which INR 804 crore was incurred on the pipeline, INR 455 crore was incurred on operational CapEx, and others were INR 620 crore, and the rest was on CGD, E&P, renewable equity contribution, et cetera.
I will also take you through the segment-wise outlook for the short to medium term. The PBT from gas marketing during the quarter stood at INR 779 crore.
The PBT from gas marketing during the nine months stood at INR 3,000 crore. We are expecting to achieve a marketing margin level from the gas marketing segment in the financial year 2026. In the gas transmission segment, quarter three financial year 2026, the average transmission volume improved to 125.45 MMSCMD as compared to 123.59 MMSCMD during Q2 financial year 2026. Further, the volume during the month of December 2025 stood at 128.65 MMSCMD. This reflects that there is now a recovery phase or there is growth in the transmission business after we have seen the quarter one, which was not to our expectations. Further, the volume during the month of December 2025 stood at 128.65 MMSCMD, signifying the return of volume to normal levels. The average transmission volume of the nine-month financial year 2026 stood at 123.23 MMSCMD.
The recovery in gas transmission volume is primarily on account of elevated consumptions by fertilizer, refinery, and CGD sectors, and the reduction of gas supply on two sections after the completion of repair jobs which had got disrupted during Q2 financial year 26 due to extreme monsoon and flash floods in North India. We are hopeful of achieving our gas transmission guidance of 124-125 MMSCMD for the financial year 25/26. Polymer production stood at 219 TMT as against 220 TMT in the previous quarter. There is a loss of INR 483 crore during quarter three financial year 26 due to an increase in input gas costs, depreciation, and decline in polymer prices. This segment is likely to be at a similar level for the remaining part of this financial year.
However, a likely softening of input gas prices, various measures being taken for cost optimization, and improvement of efficiency may lead to improvement in the performance of this segment in the coming year. LHC production stood at 199 TMT during Q3 financial year 2026 as against 221 metric tons in the previous quarter. With a PBT of INR 29 crore, the PBT for the LHC segment has been hit by a drop in prices on account of low prices coupled with a reduction in the allocation of new well gas from 0.32 MMSCMD to 0.2 MMSCMD. The management is actively engaging with the ministry for more allocation of domestic gas.
In addition to our operational and financial performance, I would also like to highlight the progress of Project Sunshine 2, our flagship project which is focused on maximizing profitability across core business segments through targeted improvements enabled by advanced data analytics. Phase one of the project has been successfully completed with 30 approved use cases with an expected benefit of more than INR 600 crore on a net present value basis in the coming five years. This is after the net off of CapEx, which we are going to incur around INR 146 crore. In addition to monetary benefits, Sunshine 2 is also helping build internal capabilities. GAIL is establishing a center of excellence comprising existing Sunshine 2 team members and further strengthening its team so that analytics optimization and value creation become embedded in the way GAIL operates across all business units.
That's all from my side regarding the overall performance and projects. Now, the management is available. The management of the company is available, and we will be glad to address any query that you may have. Over to you, Probal.
Thank you, sir. Operator, can we start the Q&A?
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may please press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Vivek anand from Ambit. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions.
The first one is on the transmission business. How do you see the volume ramp-up for FY 2027 and 2028, and what do you think the global gas supply dynamics are looking like when it comes to these assumptions of gas demand? That's question one. The second question I'll ask after you answer this one.
Thank you. With respect to the volume ramp-up in the financial year 2026, we have been giving guidance from time to time. And in terms of our guidance, we are expecting at least 134-135 MMSCMD of volume in the coming financial year. We will end this financial year, in fact, around 124-125, and we are expecting at least 10 million volume, which anyway should have been available this year because there were various factors because of which we could not achieve that.
So in order to give even further details of that, almost 4 million volume we are expecting to come from the natural growth of CGD. And then we lost power volume this year. Almost 2 million volume of power we lost. We expect that to come back. We expect that to come back. And new refineries' volume and old refineries, these 3 million volumes will come from there. But later, we have seen disruptions during the year that are likely to come up. So even if that volume which we lost during this year, including the CGD growth of 4-5 million, we expect to reach 134-135 MMSCMD in the financial year 2027. Regarding the global gas supply, the global gas supply is abundantly available from the coming financial years.
As you know, a lot of capacities are coming on stream, and that is helping the price to go down. We expect those prices to soften. In fact, we have a lot of offers available at a very, very competitive price, and therefore, that will also increase the boost of gas consumption in our price-sensitive market.
Okay. Thank you for this. Just one follow-up or additional question on the new gas contracts that you're signing. Are these contracts primarily Brent-linked, or do you have a mix of baskets to link the price to?
Actually, when we source the volume, we have two things in our mind. One, that it should be the cheapest available volume to our country because you know that ours is a price-sensitive market. We do not go based on any geography or any index.
So we are evaluating those offers which we are discussing, but currently, we are feeling that Brent-linked contracts are because this is all dynamics. Brent-linked contracts are more competitive as compared to the Henry Hub-linked contract. And therefore, as a portfolio player, we always want to keep a mix of Brent-linked and Henry Hub. So we are looking at an immediate basis on the Brent-linked contract. We are, of course, also discussing Henry Hub, but we feel that the Brent-linked contract may be available at a competitive rate as compared to Henry Hub during the current market, I'm telling you, because I am not telling that we will not go for Henry Hub. It's a dynamic situation.
Right. That really helps. Last question is the current portfolio that you have of long-term sourcing, which is around 17 million metric tons. Where do you want to take this to, let's say, in the next couple of years?
We have a stated statement about this. By 2030, at least, I'm using the word at least, we want to increase our portfolio to around 6-7 MMTPA more from the current level. So though demand in the country will be significantly more, at least 22-23 MMTPA, we want to increase the portfolio. And when we see that more demand is coming, which is likely to come, we will further take it on.
All right. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from the line of Puneet from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you so much. So you talked about this 6-7 MMTPA additional LNG. By 2030, when should one think that you'll start contracting these?
We will grow progressively. We are already in the market for sourcing of at least 12 cargo per annum. We are already in the market. We are having discussions with various suppliers. So such a huge volume, you cannot expect, or we also do not intend to contract in one go. So progressively, we are going because we are also seeing what kind of index, what kind of supplier, what kind of flexibility is available. So progressively, we will reach 22-23. That is, we will be adding 6-7. And are you seeing early signs of price correction coming in, or are you still waiting for the glut to really start coming and then price will see? Actually, we believe that already the competitive offers are available. So because when we are talking of this contracting, it is not from 2026. We are talking of 2027, 2028.
For that, the suppliers are ready to offer the competitive price. So we do not expect that the price will further crash. Of course, you cannot predict anything in the oil and gas business, but still, based on our analysis, the offers currently available are quite competitive, and therefore, we have real interest in going ahead.
Understood. And if you can also talk, when do you think the tariff review will happen? PNGRB said 1st April 2028. Do you see a scenario where it can happen earlier?
I want to spend good time on this subject. Actually, our last tariff revision had happened from 1st April 2023. In normal course, tariff revision, if you go law of the land, that is, regulations, naturally, the tariff revision was due in April 2028.
But in April 2023, the tariff was revised, PNGRB then made modifications of around INR 10 per MMBTU largely on two accounts. One, on consideration of system-use gas at $3.61 per MMBTU and capacity on a provisional basis. And you know that $3.61 per MMBTU was not even a domestic price. Because of that, we filed an appeal with the regulator to consider that. But the appeal was taking time because of some issues, and we were asked by PNGRB to file a regular tariff. So whenever you file the regular tariff, you file everything. So we filed everything, and accordingly, our submissions in August 2024 were giving us a tariff of INR 78. But when PNGRB approved the tariff, they approved INR 65.69. In fact, they only approved two parameters for which we went for appeal. But we believe that normally, interim tariff concept is not there.
So we, again, filed an appeal of INR 15 because now it has become INR 15. But while even doing interim relief, we believe that two parameters should have been considered differently than what PNGRB had done. They considered higher volume but did not give the transmission loss on higher volume. There is a regulation that if you transport the volume beyond 75% of capacity, 50% of the revenue the transporter can retain, and 50% can be passed on. So PNGRB had considered higher volume, but that has not been given. We feel, apparently, these are mistakes apart from other parameters. So we filed an appeal with PNGRB. We are positive, and we believe that that appeal will be considered. But otherwise, the tariff was due in April 2028, and they have not said anything that will be cut or this will be cut.
They have told in the order that that will be considered in 2028. So if it is considered in 2028, what INR 15 we are asking will become INR 17. It's like a fixed deposit in a bank with a 15% pre-tax return.
Okay. Okay. Understood. And lastly, if you can just talk, the depreciation of the higher tariff.
Thank you, sir. May we request you to come for a follow-up?
Yes, sure.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants in the conference call, please limit your question to two per participant. The next question is from the line of Somaiah Valliyappan from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity, sir. So the first question is on the fertilizer project that we planned. If you could just help us in terms of in case we start to invest, what will be the timeline? And what is your thought on this CapEx of INR 20,000 crore? How does this compare with the brownfield? So we have an expansion option on this. Plus also, what is the project return that we are looking at? Timelines, cash flows, and project return, these three things, if you could help us. Thank you.
So we expect a timeline of three years from the day the board approves this proposal. Principally, it is approved, but it is subject to policy on energy and the subsidies by government. So we are working on that. And regarding the returns, it's a short return if it is in terms of the policy guidelines of fertilizer. So it will be an assured return. That is not a concern for us. And since it is a three-year project, so in the three years, the cash flow will come maybe initial one year, maybe 10%-20%, then 50%-60%, and the remaining like that cash flow will happen.
So there is a capital grant or subsidy angle to this, which at a later point we'll get to. Is there understood?
No capital grant. No capital grant. It is a subsidy which is available to fertilizer plants.
Okay. Understood, sir.
Fertilizer plant subsidy means the production subsidy. After production, because this fertilizer is sold at a price notified, and the producer gets the differential.
Understood, sir. But based on the current prevailing economics, so what do we think of a rough cut as a project IRR for this? What is the project IRR of this? 12% equity IRR.
It's 12% equity IRR.
Okay. Got it, sir. So the second question is on the marketing side. So one, in the month of January, Henry Hub has been quite volatile. It has spiked almost to $6-$7. How do we see this impacting us in the near term? That's the first part. Second part, sorry, I missed your initial remarks on the marketing guidance outlook. And also in the presentation, in terms of the overseas sales, this number has moved to close to 12 MMSCMD for the nine-month FY 2026, which was 6-7 MMSCMD. I mean, earlier, it looked like the international volumes will continue to decline and will be diverted to the domestic market, but last three months, it has gone up. If you could just clarify on this.
So marketing guidance, we have been giving time to time. Initially, when we began, we gave INR 4,000 crore of marketing margin we will be able to earn. But seeing the Q2 performance, we are expecting somewhere INR 4,000-INR 4,500 crore. But the question you raised regarding volatility, so we still maintain that we will be somewhere INR 4,000 crore+ of marketing margin. That's the guidance. And second question was.
Sorry, one clarification here, sir. When we say INR 4,000 crore, this is, you're referring to FY 2026, this financial year, or you're referring to FY 2027?
This is financial year. I'm talking of this financial year.
So for FY 2027 earlier, I mean, we can expect a similar run rate, or will be guiding at a later point?
We have been giving this guidance for FY 2026 also. FY 2027 also, we are not saying that we'll be having any different number than that because our volumes are the same. The marketing kind of the challenges are same. So we expect next year also, we earn INR 4,000 crore of marketing margin.
Got it. So the second part was on the overseas sales increasing. This is last nine months this year, 12 MMSCMD.
My colleague, Mr. Satish Sinha , will respond.
Basically, during the current year, we are taking various optimization measures. So earlier, we used to have destination swap . Now, we are doing off-desk basis. So due to this, our overseas supply has increased. Overseas sale has increased.
Okay. Got it .
Thank you, sir. The next question is from the line of Amit from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Good morning. Thanks for the opportunity. On PetChem input gas cost, could you tell us what was the number in Q3?
Just hold on. 11.21. $11.2 per MMBTU.
Okay. And most of the things.
As long as $10.49 in the previous quarter.
In Q2. Okay. Last year, if you have the same number for last year?
Last year, it was $9.45.
Okay. Okay. With Henry Hub still being higher than last quarter, so this number should go up more in Q4?
Yeah. You are right. With Henry Hub, it's gone higher, but we are talking with respect to one-month settlement. That is January, right? So after January, February has softened, if you see the current market of HH. March is still there because January, normally, we have seen because of the severe winter, it goes high. So February and March, we do not see any challenge. January, yes, there is a challenge. So we have a lot of options. What's the risk mitigation measure by marketing in an international market? Or doing some optimization measures. So we are working out it. But on the face of it, what you are thinking may be correct because today, it has gone up. So part of that, certainly, we have to bear the cost.
Right. And entire feedstock would be Henry Hub-linked LNG, or is there any other gas in the mix?
Not necessarily Henry Hub. Yes, significant amount is Henry Hub also. But we are supplying Brent and also the available spot prices, whatever, because we have a lot of volumes available. So we see whatever possible, we supply to PTA plant. But is it not necessarily Henry Hub? Largely, yes, Henry Hub, but not necessarily everything is Henry Hub.
Understood. Is it fair to say that you will continue to run the plant at 100% utilization even if LNG is staying high, or would you look to kind of curtail that as well?
So I will come back to again. February and March, we don't see any challenge. January prices settled. For February, yes, there is a challenge. December price settled. For January, there was no challenge. It was $4.69 per MMBTU. So now, coming back to your question whether we will run 100%, now we are in the fair end of the financial year. So if you stop for a month or two, it actually impacts the energy efficiency. And it also impacts the customer sentiment. So for a smaller period, month or so, we do not take a call for shutting down.
This happens in business. Cyclical business certainly impacts. But second positive thing is happened in last one month. The prices of polymer have gone up. This month, it has gone up by INR 2.50 per INR 2,400 per metric ton, and before that, INR 1,000 per metric ton. So INR 3,500 per metric ton price has also gone up. One way, the input cost has gone up, yes. Another side, that price of polymer has also increased.
Understood. Understood. And earlier, you had mentioned they were also thinking of diversifying into ethane. Any progress there?
We have not said that we are diversifying in ethane. What we are thinking because this is the only gas-based plant in North India. What we are working on to optimize or take various cost optimization measures to make this plant profitable on a sustainable basis even at this price. So what we are doing, first optimization measure we have taken, we are putting one pipeline carrying C2, C3 from our Vijaipur plant to Pata. Currently, what we are doing, we are extracting C2, C3 at Vijaipur, mixing in natural gas pipeline, re-extracting it. During this process, we lost 10% energy.
So that's one optimization measure we have already taken, and this pipeline will be completed in one and a half years from now. Second, what we are working on, this is quite under consideration, that we lay a dedicated ethane pipeline for any of the projects and actually source ethane. Instead of using gas, we actually directly use ethane. Ethane, it has been seen that it is cheaper than gas, and it will give 20%-25% more yield as compared to gas. And if we are able to do that, for which we are working, this plant will become even at the current level of prices. Whereas the price of polymer, if you see in 2029 onwards, any forecast is suggesting will go significantly high because today, the capacity is higher and demand still less. This situation is going to be reversed in coming 3 years. Sure.
Just the last question on the LPG and liquid hydrocarbons business. So the volume has been curtailed in this quarter, I believe, because of the APM reduction. So is this a normal run rate now, the 200 KT volume?
I think so. Right now, we are having non-APM gas allocation around 1.12 MMSCMD and new well/field gas around 0.2. So total gas availability for the LHC segment is around 1.32. So our production will be around 200,000 per quarter.
Okay. Understood. That's all from me. Thank you.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from the line of Varatharajan from Antique Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity, sir. Sir, in your opening, Rakesh, you highlighted that the Henry Hub price movement is adverse. Is it only adverse from the point of view of use as a feedstock in Petrochem, or has there been some kind of an impact on the trading side as well?
So first question, yes, it will certainly impact to some extent on the petrochemical project because the January price settled at higher. With respect to the natural gas marketing, we have some open volume. We have been telling that we source 21 MMSCMD from United States. Almost 3 MMSCMD we have kept open. Second, there are certain take-or-pay contracts where we have signed 60%-70% take-or-pay. So if Henry Hub prices go higher and becomes uncompetitive as compared to the crude-linked contract, it's a consumer behavior that they restrict themselves to take-or-pay or around that level. That certainly puts us in a situation to market that volume at a prevailing price.
And certainly, the open volume also sometimes provides us arbitrages of different indexes costlier. So yes, it may to some extent impact us, but our guidance with respect to marketing margin, we have been maintaining of INR 4,000 crore, factoring in all likely situations or whatever is prevailing currently.
Understood, sir. In that case, would you be in a position to give us some kind of a split in terms of volume with regard to this oil-linked selling contract?
Can you come again?
So you were mentioning some oil-linked contract that take-or-pay is there because of which we have to curtail. So that particular volume in terms of how much of volume out of that U.S. contract is actually oil-linked that we are placing?
No, no. I have not said so. What I have said, we have 21 MMSCMD of volume we source from United States. 3 million volume we have kept open. That means it is not back-to-back basis. That is indexed in Henry Hub and market. So that is the only challenge what we are telling. And some customers' behavior, if the prices change other way, they restrict themselves take-or-pay and source from other gas. So that happens regularly. So just to get it clarified, so the remaining 18 are all back-to-back contracts with gas-linked contracts? Majority is on back-to-back, and some volume we take swaps. So that's how we make it back-to-back. That is swaps, crude versus Henry Hub.
Fair enough, sir. My second question was on the CapEx cost of all these projects. Is there any project where we are seeing an escalation in the CapEx cost, sir?
So since most of our current projects are almost at the verge of completion, and their cost has become almost kind of certain, PDHPP or INR 11,258 crore will be completing that project within that cost. PP is already under commissioning, no likely. Mumbai, Nagpur, Jharsuguda except some portion, we are almost complete. Srikakulam, Angul except this spur line, we are completing Jagdishpur. So nothing because these projects are at a very significantly advanced stage of completion, and we have visibility that there is unlikely of cost escalation except that this too is Haldia, which may see some cost escalation, not any other projects.
Minor escalation is.
Minor. Minor. That's what I'm saying.
Great, sir. That is very useful. Thanks on all the rest.
Thank you.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from the line of Sabri Hazarika from Emkay Global Financial Services. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, sir. Two questions. Firstly, you mentioned on the Henry Hub price, which is your price, for January, you said it is $4.69, right?
January supply price. Actually, applicable for price for January is price settled in December, right? So price settled in December is $4.69, which is applicable for January supplies. The price settled for January is $7.46, which is applicable for current month. That is February.
So that has gone up significantly. So that will have impact on the PetChem, right?
Yeah. Yeah. I admitted that. But we will take some optimization measures. Can we market it instead of bringing that gas to this market? Can we market it to Europe where prices are good, and then we source some spot or some crude-linked contract gas or available in our portfolio supply? So those optimization measures we will take, but on face of it, it has gone up.
It's one follow-up to this. This INR 4,000 crore is when you say INR 4,000 crore, you mean the EBIT, right?
I mean PBT.
You mean PBT, right? So Q3, what was the PBT then? I mean, EBIT was INR 4,000 crore, but I think below EBIT then.
So you reduced our INR 69 crore from INR 3,000 crore. Around 2,231. 2,231? 2,231 was the? 2,231.
Yeah. Okay. That was the PBT.
For half year. First half.
Okay. INR 2,231 crore was the PBT for half year versus that you are expecting INR 4,000 crore + for the full year, right?
Yeah. Yeah. Actually, some events are taking place because of geopolitical situation. Has anybody envisaged that the exchange rate will touch to 92?
Right. Right, sir. Definitely.
So these factors are also making us to calibrate, but we still maintain INR 4,000 crore.
Right, sir. Sir, and second question is on your ethane sourcing. So you will set up another I think right now, you are setting up Vijaipur, Pata. But if you were to import ethane from U.S. and also, you'll have to set up another pipeline, which will be set up somewhere in the Hazira-Dahej belt. Is that right?
S o maybe Hazira, maybe Dahej, maybe Dabhol to Vijaipur. We have all the options available because we have our own terminal as well. We are expanding the capacity of Dabhol from current level of 5 MMTPA to 6.3 MMTPA, already sanctioned, and we have planned to gradually increase to 12-12.5 MMTPA. So we have all the options available, and we are working on that, which terminal we should plan for bringing ethane and utilize because anybody will prefer that you should utilize your own terminal.
Got it, sir. Thank you so much, and all the best.
Yeah.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from the line of Pratyush from InCred Equities. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. Thanks a lot for giving this opportunity. I have two questions. First is regarding your sourcing. So since you have mentioned it a couple of times that you source about 15.5 million tons of contracts, so can I get the bifurcation of the contracts? What kind of volumes are you getting from RasGas? What kind of volumes are you getting from Exxon, Chevron, et cetera? So it's the first question. Once you answer it, I'll go to the second question, which I have in my mind.
So we have 16.53 MMTPA of contracts existing. Out of that, we have 5.8 million tonnes from United States on Henry Hub and 0.75 from Middle East on Henry Hub. That makes 6.55 million tonnes, right? Then 4.5 million tonnes from, again, RasGas on crude-linked, approximately 3 million tonnes again from one of the marketing companies, SEFE, on crude-linked, 0.42 million tonnes again on crude-linked through PLL. And we have signed one more contract from Vitol for 1 million tonnes. That is crude-linked. And ADNOC, another 0.53 million tonnes of crude-linked.
Got it, sir. Got it, sir. Thanks a lot. So second question is regarding the downstream players, the fertilizer, the CGD players, and other players whom you actually get the gas. So I wanted to ask regarding the marketing margins of the contracts because in the last quarterly call, you mentioned about there's a 7.8 million tons of contracts in which you have a bit of sort of fixed margin and which is majorly sold to fertilizer players. So does that include CGD companies also and this 7.8 is something which you majorly get from the RasGas? Is it something which I'm understanding correct? So that is the one point. And second is, I mean, what's the typical marketing for the other 7.2 million contracts in which you do not have a typical fixed kind of margin which is there in the 7.8 million?
Actually, it's not RasGas. We are getting 7.5 or 7.8. Only we are getting 4.8 as of now with crude-linked and 0.75 on Henry Hub. That is one question.
Second, largely, our volume, I have said 3 MMSCMD, you can say 0.75 MMTPA or maybe 0.8 MMTPA is open. All other volumes, we have marketed either back-to-back, or if not back-to-back, we are taking swaps for mitigating risk time to time. And when we have marketed these volumes back-to-back or through swap, there is a fixed margin. Now, fixed margin varies from contract to contract and period of contract. So that's the overall scenario. Somewhere, you get maybe a $1 margin, or somewhere, you get $0.20 margin, or somewhere, you get $0.10 margin. That varies from the time we marketed. That varies to whom we marketed. And that varies also based on how much volume we marketed. So largely, you can consider that out of total volume, we have marketed largely on back-to-back basis except maybe 0.8 or 0.9.
Got it, sir. Got it, sir. So over and above this, largely, the back-to-back contract, you also get margins on the APM, the PMT, right? Definitely, I think it's capped according to the government of INR 200 per 1,000 SCM, something like that. So this was regarding the RLNG part but not about the domestic front. In domestic front, also, you get some marketing margins on getting contract through APM or PMT. Am I understanding it correct? But there is a margin which has been kept by government end about INR 200 per 1,000 SCM. Is it something like that for the domestic gas?
Domestic gas also has two parts. One is APM gas where the margin is INR 200 per 1,000 SCM. And another is MDP gas where marketing margin is around the line of RLNG.
Got it, sir. Got it, sir. Okay, sir. That's all from my end. Thanks a lot for answering these questions.
Thank you.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from the line of Nitin Tiwari from PhillipCapital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Good morning. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, my question is also on the gas marketing business. So can you also help us with the guidance for volume for gas marketing in FY 2027? I suppose the contract with Vitol is supposed to start in 2027, right? FY 2027, I mean. It has started in 2026. It has started. So what is the volume guidance for marketing, sir?
Sorry. So volume guidance, we expect actually 5% increase. We have been maintaining that 5%-6% increase in the volume. So if we end up this year 104, 105 because year is to be end, so maybe 109, 110 MMSCMD on normative basis, we should achieve.
So my question is, then I mean, incremental question is linked to that only. So if we are targeting higher volume in FY 2027, so are we expecting a contraction in margin, especially in the backdrop of what you earlier commented that now crude-linked contracts are turning out to be more favorable than HH? So are we expecting any challenges with respect to marketing of HH contracts? So that's why we are yeah.
Nitin, concerning those challenges, I have not revised my marketing guidance. I have maintained INR 4,000 crore in spite of increasing volume by 5 MMSCMD.
Yeah. So your volume is going up, but your PBT guidance remains the same, which tells me that we are expecting margin contraction. Is that the right assessment, sir?
No, no. Yeah, yeah. We are not expecting, but I cannot give you guidance which actually may face some challenges. Like this year, in the beginning, we would have envisaged that situation will happen like this. Still, we are maintaining the guidance we have given in the beginning of the year. That is INR 4,000 crore. So whenever we give guidance, we should give guidance which is in even conservative or difficult scenario, you are able to achieve, right? So we expect more. We expect more, but let that to come actually. We want to give you something which is certain based on today's assumptions.
Understood, sir. Fair enough. Sir, my second question was with respect to the petrochemical business. So I mean, thanks for helping us with the gas cost. I just wanted to understand the operating cost. If you can give us any ballpark number around what could be an operating cash cost, excluding depreciation, on a per-ton basis that we can—I mean—to help us understand that, how that number is moving.
Basically, in the process plant particularly, in the petrochemicals, we have around 70%-75% as a gas cost. Rest is the other cost which includes repairs and maintenance, employee cost, and storage and spares and other costs. So you can consider this one, sir.
Sir, the 75% number that you are saying would change when the gas cost changes, right? So I just wanted to understand a ballpark for, say, operating cost per ton that we can consider for our understanding.
For your total cost, sir. You can calculate whatever we have published figure for the petrochemical segment. So we are reporting separately for the petrochemicals, LPG, and other segments. So you can calculate easily from the published figure.
Okay. Fair enough. Thank you.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from the line of Vineet from Nomura. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. One question on the PetChem side. So I think ONGC has already announced charter contract for a couple of ethane carriers, and they also have an agreement with Petronet LNG for ethane handling. And given that Qatargas will not supply rich gas from 2028 onwards, so what is your plan in terms of sourcing gas for your ethane cracker? And where do you want to I mean, will you be using the Petronet's Dahej terminal for handling ethane, or you'll be adding this capability in your Dahej terminal?
Actually, this question, I have clarified in detail. That first, we are working on ethane sourcing. We are already in the midst of laying a line from Vijaipur to Pata, which can carry ethane. We are also evaluating for putting up a pipeline upstream to Vijaipur. And for that, we have three terminals at least in west coast in our mind. That is Hazira, Dahej, and Dabhol. Dabhol being our own terminal, subject to viability, we will prefer to bring ethane at our own terminal.
Okay, sir. And given the current margins for PetChem and the margins in next quarter will be probably worse than what you reported in the third quarter because of higher heavier prices, so is it not better to just stop operating the cracker probably in the fourth quarter because you are making losses even at the EBITDA level ?
Actually, we could have done it. But mind it, there are two consequences of stopping the plant for a very small period because anyway, we are expecting next year onward, the prices are going to be softened. We have those offers available. But if we stop the plant for a period of, say, 1 or 2 months, actually, it hurts two ways. One, the energy efficiency or the minimum energy required to maintain the plant in preservative condition that we have to incur. Second, the customer sentiment. You see, a lot of customers have signed the contract or MOUs with us. If we stop the plant in between, we will lose these customers, and they will go to our competitors. So we cannot fly-by-night, the player like, "Now, we are losing. We stop it. Now, we are earning.
We start it." So on a longer-term basis, we do not believe that this plant is going to incur losses. Last year, we were at a break-even level. This year, unfortunately, two reverse things happened. Prices went down, and the input has gone up. Next year, we are not expecting such situation to be repeated.
Okay, sir. Understood. So last question on the housekeeping question. So your staff cost is down significantly. I think it's lowest in many, many years. So what was causing this very low staff cost in third quarter?
Downward?
Yes, sir. Basically, during the last year, we provided PRP at 100%. Basically, during the current year, no incremental provision for the current year. So we have reduced our PRP provision.
And there is no impact of labor costs in this number, right?
No, no. Right now, no.
Okay, sir. Thank you so much, sir. All the best.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants in the conference call, please limit your question to one per participant. The next question is from the line of Mayank Maheshwari from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Sir, thank you for doing the call. Just a question around CapEx now. Considering your petrochemical projects are getting completed this year, and if you can give us a timeline of when they kind of start up on each of them, how much are you thinking about CapEx for fiscal 2027? Thank you.
So we expect to have subject to addition of new projects, which I am not factoring in, we expect to incur INR 9,000-INR 10,000 crore of CapEx in financial year 2027. We have two, three pipelines which are under construction.
Those CapEx will come up like Vijaipur-Auraiya C2/C3 Pipeline, Gurdaspur-Jammu Pipeline, completion of KKBMPL and Jagdishpur-Haldia Pipeline, and the spur lines of SAPL. Second, we have also approved in board the doubling the capacity of our Jamnagar-Loni Pipeline. Until now, this segment appears to be very small segment, but by doubling, it will appear to be a very lucrative segment. So that will also involve a CapEx of INR 5,400 crore. So a large part of CapEx will be on pipeline in 2027 and even in 2028. And then we also have a net-zero plan. INR 35,000 crore we have planned to incur in a period of 10 years. And we are evaluating various projects like I narrated during the opening remarks that almost 700 MW of 700+ MW of renewable energy projects we have in hand. We are working on it.
We are doing it on purely commercial analysis basis to replace our internal uses of power which we are purchasing. So around INR 2,000-3,000 crore of CapEx will come from that side. Then maybe remaining CapEx which project we are completing during this year will be there from petrochemical and GMPL. Then equity and CGD projects which we are doing, LNG projects which we are doing, CBG projects which we are doing may involve INR 800-1,000 crore of CapEx. This is how we'll reach to INR 9,000-10,000 crore of CapEx, including equity.
Got it. So very clear, sir. The timeline on the completion of the petrochemical plants this year, when are you thinking which starts up? PTA, Mangalore, PP, PDH? When do they start up now from your timeline perspective?
PTA will start during this financial year. We are very hopeful that it will be commissioned during this financial year. PP, which we are putting at Pata, 60 KTA will be commissioned in a day or two. PDH, PP, Usar, we expect to complete during this calendar year. That is delayed. Delayed as planned, we could not complete. But by calendar year, we expect it to complete.
Got it, sir. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from the line of Saurabh from Citi. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, you had mentioned that for the tariff-like benefit, which is 12%, the earnings benefit you are looking at is around INR 1,200 crore. Now, this is what you had announced when this was before the zonal tariff apportionment. Now, based on the zonal tariffs, it looks like the benefit could be slightly higher than that. So are you still maintaining a 12% number, or could you just quantify in terms of realized benefit?
Actually, we maintain 12% because this zonal distribution is subject to our risk and reward. It may be 14%. It may be 11%. So we maintain an average number of 12.
Sure, sir. And just the last question on CapEx with all your pipelines likely to get commissioned over the next two, I think, between March and June, how much should we look at in terms of what you will be capitalizing and the implications for depreciation?
Just hold on. During the current quarter, I have capitalized around INR 5,200 crore. So only balanced portion of Srikakulam-Angul spur line around 300 kilometers, and some portion of Jagdishpur-Haldia from Kolkata to Haldia and Dhamra to Haldia. This will be capitalized by June.
Some portion of Mumbai, Nagpur, Jharsuguda, mainly Nagpur to Jharsuguda, and in the Maharashtra region. So this pipeline will be capitalized. And by June 2026, Gurdaspur-Jammu Pipeline will also capitalize. So the CapEx is around INR 500 crore. So these are the CapEx which will be capitalized during the coming years.
Sir, and how much would this amount be if you just exclude the Gurdaspur-Jammu Pipeline? Is that another INR 4,000-INR 5,000 crore of capitalization?
Around INR 2,500-INR 3,000 crore.
Okay. Got it. Thank you so much.
Thank you, sir. The next question is from the line of Vikas Jain from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks for taking my question. I have two of them. Firstly, this staff cost, you said that there was some adjustment because you had made a higher provision earlier. So going ahead, what would be the annual or quarterly run rate that one should look at, say, from FY 2027 or so? What will be the annual staff cost run rate that we should be looking at?
Vikas Ji, Vikas Ji, [Foreign language] That is linked to incremental profit. So as compared to last year, this year, we are not expecting any incremental profit. So therefore, on account of incentive, that has gone down. Now, your question, how much you should factor in? Year, we are clear. But next year, certainly, we expect that if we are not having incremental profit, certainly, we will have next year because our base is going down. So next year, you can consider the staff cost at the level of previous year.
Okay.
Like, can add INR 100 crore there on. You can add INR 100 crore on the incremental profit on account of PRP.
Okay. Understood. Understood, Sinha ji. Rakesh ji, just one more thing. So this revision of tariff .
Sorry?
Revision of tariff that we have filed for. Of tariff. See, if it does not get a look through some time in the next 12 months and so, then automatically, they will PNGRB will be like, "You are anyways going to get it from April 2028." Is that how we should look at it? And I mean, how is the process? So once you submit it, then it is do they have a timeline within which they need to respond, or?
Vikas Ji, there is no timeline for regulator. That's the fact. So at our part, we have filed the petition. At our part, we will follow up for that. But the concerned amount timeline remains.
Okay. Okay. And finally, I think just to kind of recap what you were just saying to the earlier participant was, so INR 5,400 crore is the capitalization in this particular financial year for pipelines. And how much is it likely to be in FY 2027?
I think Sinha ji will respond.
Yeah, Sinha ji.
And I will give you.
Vikas ji, I think this is not readily available. Let us give you the right answer. Give us maybe half an hour. He will come back to you. Sinha ji will come back to you.
Okay. Okay. Thank you so much. Thank you.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to management for closing comments.
Thank you, dear participants. It was always or it is always good to interact with you. I know you may have some more questions which you might not or you could not have asked because of the time constraint, or there was someone’s question of Vikas we could not respond immediately. We appreciate your participation, and we will be answering the questions you could not ask or we could not respond offline. We look forward to interact with you regularly. Thank you very much.
Thank you, sir. On behalf of ICICI Securities Limited, that concludes this conference call. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.
Thank you, everyone.
Thank you, public.