Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Q3 FY 2024 earnings conference call of Gateway Distriparks Limited and Snowman Logistics Limited. This conference call may contain certain forward-looking statements about the company which are based on beliefs, opinions and expectations of the company as on date of this call. These statements are not the guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then 0 on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. Today on call we have Mr. Prem Kishan Dass Gupta, Chairperson and Managing Director. Mr. Ishaan Gupta, Joint Managing Director. Mr. Samvid Gupta, Joint Managing Director. Mr. Sikander Yadav, CFO, Gateway Distriparks Limited. Mr. Rajguru Bahel, President - Rail, Gateway Distriparks Limited. Mr. Sunil Nair, CEO and Director, Snowman Logistics Limited. Mr. N.
Balakrishna, CFO, Snowman Logistics Limited. Now, we open the floor for question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from question queue, you may press star and 2. Participants are requested to use handset while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Achal Lohade from JM Financial. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, can you help us with the EBITDA number for rail vertical and the CFS vertical, please?
Yeah. The rail EBITDA for Q is almost INR 9,700, and CFS is slightly below INR 1,300.
Can you help us with a broad split of this other income? It is very small, INR 2 crore actually in this quarter, but it is 50/50 allocated between CFS and rail, because I presume the revenue
EBITDA number include other income, right?
Yeah. It includes other income, slightly more towards the rail side. I don't have the exact split right now, but it's primarily all business related, other income. It's not any one-off sale or anything like that. It's more the write back of some old provision.
Okay. If we look at the margins, QOQ and YOY, there is a compression and, obviously it's also to do with the busy season surcharge. Can you help us understand where are we? Have we passed on fully or there is still some pending pass through which is yet to be done?
Yeah. No. QOQ, we have improved on the rail side. Even on YOY, the rail side margin has actually gone up. CFS has taken a big hit, so their profitability is coming down as competition is increasing. On the BSS part, we have passed on mostly now to most of our customers. Actually we passed on to everyone now. There was anywhere ranging from 30 to 60 days lag between some customers. Some of that hit has also been taken in this quarter.
Understood. If I may ask, how do we explain the QOQ improvement in the margins and how do you see it sustaining going forward? Do you see this is the new range 9,700 plus, or you think there could be any one-off or any particular mix which has driven this improvement?
Yeah. It's basically change of mix and increase in double stacking. This quarter we did slightly more. The range will vary anywhere from 9,000 to 10,000 is what we've been saying. On a good quarter, it can be higher depending on the imbalance and lower double stacking, empty running, et cetera. The range will still stay quite broad in that sense.
Understood. Now if you could talk about the momentum. I see in the press release we have mentioned about the difficulties on the export front, but if you could help us with more understanding on the imports as well as exports and how about the market share for 3Q in both the pockets?
Yeah.
See, overall, the EXIM trade as a year has dropped in Q3. Accordingly, you can see that it's reflected in the volumes also. At the same time, we are increasing our capacity both on the rail side. We have 33 rakes now. One more will be running before the end of this financial year. We anticipate a spur in demand post-election or later in the year because the way everyone is looking at the Indian economy there has to be a downside and we cannot time it, but we should be ready for it whenever it happens.
Understood. How do we look at the growth? That's my last question. I'll follow back in the queue, sir. In both the verticals, in terms of volume and the margins. Yeah.
Growth depends on various sectors like with this BSS, rail has become slightly expensive than it was before. Some of the volumes are shifting to the road, or have shifted to the road. We have been able to strike a balance with some double stacking and all that. To give a guidance when it will happen, it will be very difficult, but we are keeping ourselves ready to capture the growth, which in medium to long term will definitely be there.
Just to add on the short term side, there will be some issues regarding with this Red Sea movement that's been happening, that there has been a shift also in the export to import imbalance. We're back to 60% imports, 40% exports. We have to wait for the macros before giving a proper guidance for next year.
Got it. Thank you. I'll follow back in the queue. Thank you.
Thanks.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Bhoomika Nair from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, sir.
Good evening.
Good morning.
Good morning, sir. Good afternoon, sir. Sir, this rail EBITDA per TU at INR 9,700, for the last couple of quarters has been in the range of about INR 9,000. There's clearly a very sharp improvement over the last five, six quarters. This is despite probably some bit of the rail surcharge coming through, as also the export-import imbalance. Can you elaborate in terms of how much double stacking has improved and what kind of mixture for you is it that we've seen a higher share of Garhi Harsaru, other terminals over, say, Faridabad, Ludhiana, which is what has driven this? If you can just throw some more colors on this margin profile.
Yeah. Garhi Harsaru originating volumes are going up, and that is a direct double stack service. That has improved the margins and throughput over there. In Q1 this year, we were at about INR 9,500 EBITDA per TU. Q2 was lesser, closer to INR 9,000. It is fluctuating a bit, but it depends on a lot of factors like the volume mix imbalance, different types of customers also who give us better margin, that can also vary up and down. Some spot business that we pick up. Empty running, if we manage to reduce by getting something on the return load. All those factors have contributed this quarter.
Okay. Is there any sense of how has double stack moved during the current quarter, say, versus the last couple of quarters? How has that hit the fiber in terms of an index or a number of TUs handled or number of rakes or whatever metrics that you are comfortable sharing?
Yeah. It's about 42%, and we were about 35%-37% earlier. Again, it fluctuates a lot quarter to quarter, and it depends on the volume mix also. If it's direct for Garhi or if it's Sahnewal or Faridabad boxes being carried on double stack via Garhi, all those also make a difference. Here we had more originating cargo of Garhi, so we got maximum benefit of double stack.
Got it. The other question is on the Kashipur terminal. If you can talk about what are the current volumes like, how are the rail versus the terminal volumes kind of stacking up, and what is the expectation going forward? Also in terms of the Jaipur terminal, what is the status of the same, of it being operational, etcetera?
On the Kashipur terminal, we're still averaging about three to three and a half thousand. Again, there is an imbalance situation over there where it's almost two-third import, one-third export. Until exports improve, we don't want to pick up more imports. That's why we're not seeing rapid growth over there. Long term, we are still targeting over 5,000 TUs per month over there. Jaipur, we're working on it now. We're looking at an alternative arrangement where we make a road-based CFS and then use a public user siding, which is right across our facility. We have to rethink on our plans over there because it's taking some time. We'll probably have more information available next quarter once we finalize our plans for that facility.
There, the rail approval is yet to come through, and which is why it is taking some time. Is that understanding clear?
Rail and some land related issues as well.
Yeah. I mean,
And just-
on the results
Sorry. On the Kashipur side, you were asking terminal and rail, I just wanted to clarify, 100% of terminal volumes of Kashipur are carried on our trains only. We are not doing any third-party business out of Kashipur. I forgot to answer that.
Okay. Sure. Yeah. On Jaipur, since you said there was some land-related issue, if you can just elaborate because the results note was not very clear, legible in terms of reading. There was a note which was given around that as well. If you can just explain what is this aspect, please.
Yeah. Bhoomika, see, the total land parcel is 30 acres, out of which we own 21 acres there. Another 8 acres has been aggregated by someone with whom we have a memorandum to transfer the land to us. That land, to say about 8 acres of land that has been questioned. We are below the government agencies to clear that issue. Pending that, what we will do is that the entire infrastructure of the warehouse, the yard, empty yard, and then building will be going ahead. Until the time this land issue is cleared, we will be then using the CRT, which is just across the facility, and within the station itself. It is a common user facility. We will bring the trains over there, and once the [Inaudible], our other infrastructure is ready we will start with that.
That means that there will be a slight delay. Now, how much delay will that be? That we are evaluating, and we will be clear in the next couple of months. Therefore, the operations will be delayed by at least 2 months than earlier guidance being given.
Sure. If I may just squeeze in on this whole Red Sea issue. How is the outlook in terms of the current quarter or the way ahead? Have things settled down? Are we seeing volumes normalizing, or is there still a challenge in terms of the import-export imbalance and things like that?
Hi, Rajguru here. Regarding the Red Sea issue, the problem started in mid-December. That effect started now, effect is coming in January. We are experiencing a spillover volume that will happen in February and March. Hopefully the volumes will start pouring in. Export bookings are also like, we are having this trend that they are down because of the low inventory availability since because due to Red Sea, mostly the cargo which is coming from Europe and East Coast of U.S., that is taking a lot of time. That has put a stress in the system, we are seeing low volumes. Definitely what we are foreseeing is that we should be able to catch up in the month of February and March.
Okay. Great, sir. Wishing you all the best. I'll come back in the questions queue.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Krupashankar N J from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Good evening, Thank you for the opportunity. If you can elaborate on what would be your market share in NCR, Ludhiana region right now.
In Q3, our market share in NCR has been in the range of 16%-17%. In Uttarakhand, our market share was 27%. At Ludhiana, it was close to 22%.
Hello?
Yeah.
You are able to hear me?
No, I couldn't hear the Uttarakhand. After Uttarakhand, I lost you. Sorry. Can you repeat?
Okay. I'll again explain. In NCR our market share was in the range of 16%-17%. In Uttarakhand, our market share stood at 27%, because now we are seeing some increase in export volumes there. In Ludhiana, we are having a market share of around 20% as of now.
Okay.
There were competitive challenges in Ludhiana because of the new ICD that is continuing to get worse over there. Sorry.
There are multiple factors. One is that the new ICDs are coming up. There's another that we have also decided to do the business wherein we have decent margins. We are not doing a business where the margins are less. We have consciously taken a decision not to do that business.
Right. My second question was more relating to the modal-led volumes going back to road as sir was mentioning earlier. Just wanted to understand, is this primarily because of the imbalance-led aggressive pricing by road, or are there any other factors relating to this shift in the modal side?
One of the factors we have already explained is that due to this implementation of busy season surcharge, there has been some shift from rail to road. Again, we need to see how long it can sustain. We are hopeful that the volumes will eventually come back.
Sir, in the past, we have seen that all factors being equal, we have heavier import mix has resulted in a fabric of congestion at the port side, due to which road operators were giving a relatively better pricing on the export leg, leading to a higher imbalance. Why I'm trying to raise this is. Are you anticipating that the imbalance would have a significant impact on the profitability going ahead in the rail side of things?
No. What we have done is we have been able to source empties from shipping lines, and there is some other business also we've been able to do. If we look at this quarterly numbers, we have been able to reduce our imbalance overall. That is also one of the reasons, somewhere they explained that there is a slight improvement in the margin. With the procurement of empties which we are moving plus reduction of imbalance.
All right. Thank you, and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. A reminder to all participants, you may press star one to ask questions. Next question is from the line of Harsh Shah from Dimensional Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon, sir. My question is for Snowman Logistics. If I look at the pallets handled volume that has been given in the presentation, it's 11 lakh 86,000. If I reduce the half yearly numbers of last presentation, then the volumes handled for this quarter is somewhere around 3 lakh 57,000, which is quite lower than our previous two quarters ended of 4 lakh 14,000. Q1 was around 4 lakh 14,000, Q2 was 4 lakh 14,000 again, and Q3 somewhere around 3 lakh 57,000. Just wanted to get a sense on this decline in our pallets handled volume.
Hi, this is Sunil Nair. Yes, the pallets handled this quarter has been little lower due to the seasonality. Typically, this quarter three is lean on the ice cream business, and this is the time when the seafood also is on a leaner side, which both are very large volume segments for us, and that's the reason the handled pallets are less.
Even if I look at it on YOY basis, we did INR 3 lakh 95,000 in Q3 of last year compared in comparable basis is now INR 3 lakh 57,000. That's 1% decline YOY as well. Is it a temporary decline or are we seeing slowdown in the industry, something of that sort?
I'm sorry, your voice is breaking. What I understand is you're saying even on a YOY basis, there is a reduction.
That's correct. There's a 10% reduction.
YOY numbers are. You're talking about pallet handled or?
Yes, yes, pallets handled.
No pallet handled there is no reduction. It is better than last year.
I'll check it out. Sequentially, if I look at the revenues, the revenues have remained increased rather 4% to 5% while the volume handled has declined. Is there a sharp increase in the realization? Is that correct?
Yeah, there is a 5% increase in the average revenue per pallet. The pallets handled are slight when you take a YTD basis as compared to last year.
Got it. In terms of margins for our warehousing business.
Harsh Shah, sorry to interrupt. We're not able to hear you.
Is it better now?
Try it again.
My question was on the margin. Last year, we were at around 22% EBIT margin for our warehousing business, which has come down to around 18.5%. Is it purely because of mix or what is it exactly?
It is purely because of mix. We have added a lot of leased warehouses in dry segment, where the margins are lesser but they are on leased warehouses with no CapEx. It's because of the blend which is changing, as we are moving towards asset light wherever possible. This will keep moving little lower as we add more and more leased warehouse into our capacity.
Okay. In the transportation segment, again, the margins are lower this year back to maybe around about 2%. In last quarter, we had spoken that you had added a few vehicles, for which you had incurred expenses but had not billed much of revenues. This quarter, we can see the margins are even lower sequentially, 1.5% at EBIT level.
I'm not able to hear you properly.
Just a second. Is this better now?
Yeah, please continue, better.
My question is on the transportation segment.
Your first question was on the margin, why it is couple of percent less.
Yes. My question is on EBIT margin in the transportation business.
Yeah. I'll take that question here. See, one big reason for the reduction of margins in transport business is because if you are comparing year-on-year
This year we have added 20 ACs, those depreciation are coming in faster here. Whereas last year, all the ACs were fully depreciated. There was no depreciation account. That is the only reason year-on-year. Otherwise, it is the same margin. You can give it a look at Q-on-Q the same trend margin.
Okay. You are saying at EBITDA level, the margins are comparable, are better.
Yes.
Okay.
This is at EBIT level because the depreciation will be faster in here, so it is not comparable year-on-year.
Got it. Last question is on the trading and distribution business. For last four quarters, we have been at around INR 35 crore-INR 40 crore range. Just wanted to get an understanding of what kind of growth can we expect going ahead. I believe we were in discussion with three, four clients. Any progress on that front?
Yes. In cold distribution business, the major category that we are handling today is ice cream, which is followed by the QSR and being lean season for ice cream, winter is the lean season, you will see an impact in Q3. As we move forward in Q1, you will see the upward trend. Typically, we have added 20 new products into our 5PL cities this quarter. These are something which will start giving business to us by the end of Q1, which is around March. This new addition of SKUs will start contributing revenue. We will see some upward trend in the coming quarter.
Got it. Sure. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Govindlal Gilada from an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir. Hello.
Good afternoon, Mr. Gilada.
Are you able to hear me, sir?
Yes, sir.
Your voice is very feeble. Can you please come closer to your phone or microphone?
Is it okay now? Hello.
I can hear you, but not very clearly.
Okay. I don't have any questions, sir. Only request is that your presentation slides, they are almost at the beginning of the call, they are uploaded on BSE. It will be convenient at least some 15, 20 minutes to upload them so by the call begins, we can go through them and if any questions, it is convenient to clarify them, sir.
Okay. Point taken. Will do that.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Abhijit Mitra from Unifi Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question. Just to understand the change in shares across regions. What we are seeing is a very sharp drop in Ludhiana over the past couple of years, maybe one and a half years now. I understand part of it is driven by the imbalance in ports that have gone up significantly, which you don't want to capture. Say a 10%-15% kind of a volume growth is possible by maintaining around 20%-25% market share in Ludhiana. Just trying to get your sense of that.
That is quite possible. At the same time, we should not ignore the fact that there are six ICDs in Ludhiana market. Sorry, five ICDs in Ludhiana market, there is competition where everyone wants to have their market share. We have consciously given up some business because that was either low margin or a minus EBIT level. We didn't want to go for that. We do have a strategy where, we will definitely try to increase our market shares to what we are getting. Right now, it is in the range of 20%-22%. Definitely 25% is achievable, and the team is working towards that.
Just to add to it, our preference is always to focus more on the EBITDA rather than volume. We won't be increasing volume just because to increase volume. We have to look at profitability first.
The second thing is this Faridabad terminal, which is still not developed. The work is in progress, and once it becomes developed, not only the originating volume from Faridabad we can see, but Kashipur can
Kashipur
Kashipur can be sent. Kashipur can be routed through Faridabad. These things we cannot put a timing, but yes, some visibility is there that it is going to happen in the near future.
Got it. Of course, barring the intermittent or the near-term impact on account of the disruption which you mentioned you saw in January. The next couple of years, what kind of volume growth you envisage in the rail business on a direction, if I have to sort of put in a direction as to the guidance that you want to have.
On our part, we are increasing our capacity as earlier mentioned by others also in the call. We can only be ready for the next round of calls which will come in
Right now, actually, impact, except for the delays due to [Inaudiuble] , the shipping coming from the East Coast, Canada, U.S.A., and from Europe. Once this delayed cycle is through, and then every other shipment will be following that route, and there will be a regular flow. To say about one or two years, the geopolitical situation today is very, how to say, uncertain. These wars do have impact on the supply chain and on the costs and even on the consumption patterns. I will not be able to give you a guidance for the next two years, but all we can say is that we are increasing our capacity, and also we are hoping that things will improve where India, of course, and where the growth is projected at 7% of the GDP, will definitely be one of the leading countries in the world.
We'll keep our fingers crossed, and we will be able to give some more guidance at the end of the financial year when we have the next conference call.
Got it. Thanks. That's all from my side, and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Urvi from Artha India Ventures. Please go ahead.
Hi, good evening. My questions are with respect to Snowman Logistics. What is the kind of growth that we are expecting on the top line and bottom line for each of the segments? What will be the key drivers for the same? Hello?
Hi.
Hello.
Sorry.
Yeah.
Hello. Can you hear me?
Yeah.
Okay. In terms of warehousing, we are expecting the usual growth of 10%-12% as we start adding more facilities. We have recently added Guwahati, which is a completely leased facility, and we are looking for a couple of more such options, while at the same time, we are constructing our own facilities in Kolkata and Lucknow, which are in process. Very soon, we plan to add a couple of more locations in next 12-18 months. Here, the growth primarily depends on the capacity that we create. So far, we were creating capacity by investing, but now we are aggressively exploring options of leasing as well. We are expecting 10%-12% of growth in warehousing segment, while in transportation, our touring initiative with our dedication of capacities are concerned.
That is more or less streamlined, and we are expecting a similar or slightly better growth in transportation as well. The third issue, which is 5PL distribution business, we are expecting around 20%-25% growth year-on-year basis.
Got it. As per a couple of calls back, or a couple of earnings calls back, the management had targeted to bump the capacity to 2 lakh by FY 2025. Are we still on that target or on the same path, or have we revised the targets?
We are still targeting to have that capacity by the end of this year, with a mix of leased and owned.
Got it. The facilities that are coming up in Kolkata and Lucknow, will they be a leased-out facility, or how will that work? What kind of mix will that be?
Kolkata and Lucknow are owned facilities. We are constructing the facility. It is under construction.
Okay.
It will take another six, seven months for it to be ready. Guwahati we have leased 100%.
Got it. In the transportation segment, in the previous call, it was mentioned that we've added a couple of trailers to cater to the logistics from ports to warehouses, and we'll explore opportunities here. What are the plans on that? A little clarity on that front.
We find it a good model, and we will be expanding on that as well as we move forward.
Will that be an asset-light model, or will the trailers be purchased on the go?
It will be a mixed model like we have in transportation now. We have close to 300 owned trucks and around 200, 250 leased trucks. We will continue with this mix.
Got it.
One correction in terms of Lucknow. It is not a fully owned facility. It is a B2S facility where we will have investment only in the refrigeration part, and the rest will be invested by the partner who is building a facility as per our specification.
Got it.
That's all.
Got it. In this no distribute segment, in the 5PL segment, in the last quarter, you guys had mentioned that there were three key customers in the pipeline. What is the status there, and have they started contributing to the revenues, and have you started monetizing them?
No, not yet. It is taking time for that to start. We have added 20 new products to our existing set of customers, where the MDT of product has been done, and in a month or two, their orders will start, and they will start delivering revenue to us.
Got it. Just one, can I get the growth that you had mentioned for the transportation segment, if you could please repeat on that.
Transportation segment, I was saying it will be somewhere around 15% growth that we are looking for as we move forward with a mix of, our own business as well as the flow into related partners.
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Bhoomika Nair from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thanks so much for the follow-up. Sir, on the CFS business, right? In this quarter, we've seen a fairly sharp profitability. How should one think about this? Is this something which should kind of sustain going forward, or does it come back to that INR 1,700, INR 1,800 per, kind of, per TEU kind of profitability?
This quarter was exceptionally low. We think it'll be somewhere in between INR 1,700 also might be possible, but I think realistically around INR 1,500 per TEU is something we'll be looking to target in the upcoming quarters. There is an issue over there with terms of discounting competition. The ground rent component has basically disappeared. We are looking at value-added services and things like first mile, last mile to improve our revenue and EBITDA over there.
Bhoomika, you know the CFS industry, how it has shaped over the last 10 years. Because of the direct port delivery and the competition, it is going to a level where we are actively looking at monetization of some of our land banks in the CFS business. It is already done. I mean, one part is already done that we have monetized more than INR 20 crores.
In this financial year, by selling some part of the land at one location. There are some extra parts of that land which we don't think that in the long run it is required for CFS business. Since we're warehousing this dry warehousing will not make sense looking at the price of land over there at these locations. Our approach is to monetize part of it, and we'll see, I mean, what our margin. Samvid said that we will be. This one is the lowest, but INR 1,500 is something that we can look at, and maybe we will try and infuse some volumes also. Something or the other keeps on happening. Like, for instance, export of rice was banned. That impacted the business at a couple of locations.
Generally in the rail business in Q3, if you look at the whole country level, if you take out what is shipped by air, like for instance, gold and other, there has been a drastic downward trend in Q3. In the rail business, we have been able to maintain 16%-17% of our NCR market share.
In CFS, it is getting worse and worse.
Right. Is this across locations or is there specific locations like, say, JNPT or Vizag or something like that?
Vizag saw the big decline because of rice, and we were heavily dependent on that. JNPT, the volumes are there, but the pricing is really bad. Chennai we've increased volumes, but again, pricing is a bit of an issue, all across. Krishnapatnam, the port is hardly doing any container vessels now. There are issues all across.
Okay, got it. Coming to rail business, I mean, it's heartening to see this kind of an improvement in the EBITDA per TEU and ranging around this 9,000-plus level. If one thinks about it, the Kashipur volumes have kind of stabilized around the 3,000, 3,500 TEUs per month, and therefore has gotten pushed out to a certain extent. How should one look I mean, obviously there will be some interim-related challenges to rail, sea, and everything aside. If one were to take more like a, say, a one-year out or six, nine months, et cetera, you know, data, where will the growth really be coming from? Is it really the industry growth, shift from road to rail, or are we really looking at increased market share gains at Garhi that will drive the volume growth?
If you can just help us structurally, how should we look at growth in terms of the rail volumes?
I think Ghazi will definitely have some growth because, like you must have seen this announcement that the complete build-up unit has been opened up at Mundra Port and of vehicles, of cars, passenger cars and all that, has been opened up at Mundra Port and at ICD Ghazi. This is a development which has happened two days ago. Ghazi, and even otherwise we see fraction in Ghazi terminal. Ghazi will still continue to remain the flagship of the company. At the same time Faridabad, being single stack, we had some competition from a competitor who went to double stack a few months back.
Part of the volume shifted there because of the costs that a double stack train can offer versus a single stack. We are expecting that Faridabad volumes, which have gone down considerably, will pick up. Rajguru has a better idea of when this double stack work will be completed. Faridabad, before Rajguru takes over, JNPT is something that we are looking at. Some sections of JNPT section have been completed, and we expect the commissioning of JNPT DFC in this calendar year. That will also have a positive impact on the volumes. Rajguru, what is the situation on Faridabad double stack?
What we are expecting is that within another 2 months' time, we should be able to start double stacking from Faridabad terminal. We have also identified a couple of new customers. Once the double stack starts, we will be starting new dedicated trains from Faridabad towards the port, and vice versa, including the Kashipur volume. That will augment the overall business volume of Faridabad terminal.
Got it, sir. In general, are we looking at more rail share growing up, or are we looking at driving route, or is it going to be more driven by market share expansions at these terminals?
More on macros and expansion at the terminals. Road to rail shift will be a slow shift. Maybe something happens on the JNPT side. Sorry about that. Maybe something happens on the JNPT once it gets connected to DFC, some shift there. Other than that, in the long run, it's like a 1%, 2% shift per year from road to rail.
Sure. Okay. Got it. Thanks so much. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Achal Lohani from JM Financial. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity, sir. The question I had was with respect to market growth. Is it possible to get some color for 3Q as well as nine months for these three pockets, NCR, Ludhiana, and Kashipur?
Just one second. Sorry. Okay. Uttarakhand market declined by about 18%-20%. This is Q on Q. NCR market was also down by about 5%-7%, and Ludhiana market is slightly up by about 4%-5%.
When you say QOQ, you mean 2 Q to 3 Q or 3 Q FY 2023-
Yeah.
-to FY 2024?
Q2 versus Q3 this year.
Okay. Understood. Now, in similar fashion, if you could tell how the volume change has been for us in these three pockets.
Our market share has almost been flat actually at this. We've gone up and down almost the same way.
Understood. Okay. The second question I had was Mundra and Pipavav have been connected on DFC for last few quarters now. In terms of speed benefits, is it fair to say that the bulk of the benefits are already reflected in the current double stacking index stock, the efficiency part? Is that a fair assessment?
No, actually there's been some crew shortages and all, especially when there's a switchover from DFC to Indian Railways network. What we were doing at around 30 hours has gone back up to 48 hours for NCR Gujarat. JNPT is at about 80 hours. There is scope for improvement in terms of speed. On the weight side, we still haven't got the upgraded tracks on the Indian Railways network, which can see us go carrying from 68 tons to 81 tons on a double stack basis. When that comes in on an end-to-end basis, our overall double stacking can increase by a lot more. That's something these two benefits will really help us in the long run.
Just to clarify, this 68 tons-81 tons, it's more of a rake issue rather than the rail network issue, right? The feeder routes can take this 81 ton rakes, right? Is that fair?
No, not yet. The railways are upgrading the tracks. Right now it's not done. All three of our new rakes are the 81 ton capacity ones, so we can carry it on those three rakes at least. Right now, no route is really fully end-to-end DFC. You have to take some feeder route somewhere or the other, either on origin or destination. You can't carry 81 tons right now anywhere.
You think this can be converted into the rail network, could be converted into 81 anytime soon, or it will take its own sweet time?
It'll take some time. There's no clear timeline on it, but it's not a very long-term thing.
Got it. Another question I had with respect to the stake in Snowman. Can you help us understand what is it now as we speak our holding in Snowman? What is the thought process here? Are we looking at converting into a subsidiary and hence consolidation, or we would stop less than 50%?
We have stake that goes up in this current financial year. Under the SEBI norms condition, as you know, maximum we can acquire is 5%. We can acquire only that much until FY 2024. Next year, again, we can buy 5%. Depending upon the cash flows of Gateway, which we see are quite good at present, we will be looking at crossing 50%. Then it will be classified as a subsidiary. All depends how the Gateway business, GDL business goes and cash flow ends up being something.
Got it. Can you help us understand what has been the OCF and CapEx for nine months?
Sorry, the what?
Cash flow from operation and CapEx.
Okay.
I think we figured.
We'll get back to you on this, Kishan. We don't have them right on us.
No problem. If you could help us understand with respect to CapEx for FY 2024, FY 2025, FY 2026, what broad numbers we can pencil in?
We'll basically, even while we have plans for new terminals, since we don't have a strict timeline on them, we'll give it closer to time, as and when those terminals come up, it'll be anywhere, depending on the size and land prices, INR 100 crore-INR 200 crore per terminal. We'll see when that comes. Other than that, there's no immediate CapEx as such apart from finishing Jaipur.
What would that be, quantum-wise?
Up to INR 50-60 crores at most.
INR 50-60 crore each. Okay. Annually. Understood.
No, no. INR 50-60 crores for Jaipur. If it's a new terminal, that can range from INR 100-200 per terminal.
I think we have to keep on upgrading our equipment also. Some of the reach stackers which have reached their age, we are getting new reach stackers shortly to replace the old ones. That CapEx will keep on continuing, and some small CapEx we keep on doing by adding yard area and all that. Secondly, contact you and give you these figures. We didn't have this ready, but we have included CapEx within the first nine months of, or 10 months of this year. We'll share.
Got it. Just last question, if I may. Looking at what is happening in terms of the near term, whether it is the macro issues, micro issues in terms of competition, is it fair to say that, in case of rail, more of high single-digit, early teens is a fair number to work with for next two, three years in terms of volume? For CFS, the INR 50 crore, INR 55 crore EBITDA run rate quarterly, annually, is that a fair assumption for next couple of years, assuming normal situation?
On the rail side, we'll still be looking at double-digit growth. Especially after our volumes at Ludhiana and Faridabad have come down. There is scope to again increase on that base, as well as Viramgam terminal, there is a good pipeline there. We'll look at double-digit only. On the CFS side, yeah, there is a decline. It's hard to say where we'll end up at, but it would be along, say, what we've done for nine months right now, and if you prorate it, similar number for next year, something that'll be there. Maybe even a slight decline, actually.
Understood. Just one more with respect to tax rate. What is the number we should work with for FY 2024, FY 2025, FY 2026?
Tax rate will be standard tax rate as in 30% plus surcharge and cess.
We have the 80IA tax benefits. I think we'll basically be paying MAT and then getting MAT credit on it. Effective tax rate will be about 17%.
Yeah. Then we will, once this finishes in FY 2027, then we will be able to utilize the MAT credit for the next few years also. By 2031 or 2032, we'll have the 80IA benefits.
Understood. All right. This is very helpful, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Pranay Khandelwal from Alpha Invesco. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Can you just update us on any other capacity expansions that we are looking at other than Kolkata and Lucknow, and any other new opportunities in the leased cold storage? This is on the Snowman side.
Hi, this is Puneet here. After Kolkata and Lucknow, we will be planning one facility in Bhubaneswar and one in Krishnapatnam. These are the confirmed ones, and by the end of this month or beginning of March, we will be finalizing our budget for next year. We might add a couple of more facilities, which could be a way to suit our core investment facilities like we have Lucknow. We might add a couple of more units.
Okay. Also, I missed this part, but can you update on the new clients for the 5PL business? What is the update there?
What I said earlier is we have not added any new client, we have added 20 new products for our existing set of clients. We are looking for having increased revenue from the existing set of clients with the new products, which are done with our 5PL sourcing services. These are listed with the clients now, and we expect in a month's time, we will start delivering revenue for us.
Are we in conversation of adding any new clients? Are there any ongoing conversations?
Yes, we are in conversation, we realize that this is a change management for our clients to completely outsource their sourcing activities. It takes a little longer time than the usual other services that we offer. While we are aligned with some of them, the decision making and some want it to be changed only when their financial year is changing those kinds of things. We have four to five good hot leads, but they are not yet closed, and hence I can't confirm on that.
Okay. All right. Can you also tell me the feedback on the CFS business? I believe it was last quarter that we added those assets and tried our hands at that business. What's the feedback from our customers for that service that we have added?
Sorry, which assets did we add in the CFS business?
For Snowman itself, we added some trailers.
This is Snowman trailers, not CFS.
Right. We have very encouraging feedback. At the same time, overall operations are also well managed, and from our sourcing and commercial side also, we find it attractive. We plan to have some more trailers in some with own equipment, some on lease basis in other locations attached, wherein we can move containers from port to our facilities. We will be planning this in the next financial year.
All right. Thank you. That would be all.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. Participants who have missed out due to time constraints, they can reach out to management and SGA for Gateway Distriparks for Distriparks, or Churchgate Partners for Snowman Logistics. With that, we conclude this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.