Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited, Q4 and FY25 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Oomkar. Thank you and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Ranju. Good evening and thank you all for joining us on the Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited Q4 FY25 earnings conference call. Today we have with us the senior management represented by Shri Roopwant Singh, IAS Managing Director, Shrimati A.K. Iyar CFO, Shri A.K. Makadia, Senior General Manager, Shri B.K. Mahato, General Manager, Shri Rajat Kumar Das, General Manager, Shri Swagat Rai, General Manager, and Shri A.K. Sharma, General Manager. Before we begin, I would like to say that some of the statements that will be made in today's discussion may be forward-looking in nature. As you are already aware that the Q4 FY25 results are in the public domain, we will now open the forum for the interactive Q&A session. Over to you, Ranju.
Speakers, go ahead.
Yes, please begin. We are listening.
Speakers, you can go ahead. The conference has been handed over to you.
Hello. We welcome the interested participants to this conference. I am Roopwant Singh, Managing Director. We may begin.
All right. I'll just take the question. No problem. Thank you. We will now begin the Q&A session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchstone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question comes from the line of Dixit Doshi with Whitestone Financial Advisors Pvt Ltd. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. My first questions are related to our lignite operations. Initially, our thought was doing around 10 million tonne for this year. We ended up doing 8 million. If you can broadly cover the reasons for the shortfall and what kind of volume growth we are. I think we are developing six more mines with 12 MTPA capacity. When some of the production from those mines will start, considering that, what kind of volume we are targeting for FY26 and 2027?
Okay. Thank you, Dixit. We fell short of 10. It was an ambitious target on account of two factors beyond our control. Our fifth and the smallest mine, Rajpardi, had a safety incident, and we had to close that mine subsequent to that incident. We lost some volume there. Second, our major ramp-up was expected from our Bhavnagar project. We have divided the project into two packages. One package was operational. The second was supposed to get operational somewhere in the middle of last year. We could not proceed on it because of delay in land acquisition for one or two villages, one fully and second partially. That has been resolved now. This year, we are looking at a growth of 10%-15% in the existing lignite business from our four existing mines.
As far as the six new lignite mines are concerned, a lot of progress has been made on the larger ones, which are going to deliver major volumes. That is Lakhpat in Kutch, Valia in Bharuch, and Damlai in Bharuch. They are undergoing various stages of statutory clearances. Again, these are large and long-duration projects. We will see a lot of progress, some expenditure there, but volumes next year onwards.
Okay. So volumes from new mines will not come in FY 26. May contribute from FY 27.
Yes, please.
Okay. Now, second questions are regarding the coal mines. You have mentioned in your press release also that we are moving ahead in Baitarani West Block. If you can broadly update on the coal mine because I assume we were expected to start some production from Q1 FY26 onwards. Where are we and what kind of volume we can expect in FY26 and 2027 in coal?
There is considerable progress here. The largest of we have three blocks in Odisha. The largest of these is Baitarani West, which will in future become the largest mine for GMDC with a capacity of 15 million tonnes per annum. It will be amongst the top 12-13 mines in the country. This mine, we should see groundbreaking this year. At this moment, we have already initiated made payments for government land. At this moment, payments for private lands are underway on project site. We should see groundbreaking and hopefully volume growth.
Okay. Do you expect some volume in FY26, or here also the volumes will come in FY27 only?
Here we are slightly optimistic because the stripping ratio there is a mere 1.5, whereas for the Gujarat mines, the stripping ratio is higher. Hence, even after groundbreaking, the production takes slightly longer.
Okay. So let's say if not FY26, FY 27, what kind of volume this mine can do, I mean, to start with in the first year of operation?
The plan is approximately around 1 million tonnes this year, and then it will be ramped up fairly quickly to 3 and then to 5 million tonnes very quickly. It all depends on groundbreaking.
Okay. So you are saying whenever, let's say, even if we see some delay in groundbreaking, the first year after the groundbreaking, we can do 1 million and then 3 and 5 million?
It can be faster also. The ramp-up will be very quick because stripping ratio and so many other things are conducive there.
Okay. In terms of pricing in this coal mine, how will the pricing work? Will it be an international price link or just like Coal India sells to the industries at FSA price? At what price will we be able to sell?
Exact price, Dixit, I can't—
Yeah, yeah. I understand. I'm not asking exact price, but it will be like a link to more of a market price driven at an international level, or it will be like we are giving to some industries at prefix prices where volatility will not be there, and it will be at discount to the international price.
The right word to use is we will be mindful of international price, and we will be mindful of what is being sold by Coal India in the neighborhood. The notified price of Coal India is fairly low. We will not be selling at that price. We will have our own price point, which we have an idea, and we did a customer outreach and interest outreach amongst customers. That EOI was very well received. We shall be taking a view on that expression of interest as we get close to groundbreaking.
Okay. One last question in this round. Regarding any update on ATPS power plant, by when will it start? Our current run rate in the power division is INR 250 million revenue with INR 110 million loss. How do you see next year?
ATPS, we are running behind schedule. We are running behind schedule because of critical delays in certain spares which are supposed to come from abroad. Once we opened the plant, there were more surprises, which ended up where we ended up ordering more spares. There is a delay there. I would like to assure the investors that our plant runs on our lignite only. What we are not able to consume in the plant, if it is out of order, we are able to comfortably push in the market. Yes, it is one division which runs in the red, but hopefully after overhaul, we will look at a better future in this year.
Okay. Fine, that's it from my side. I'll join back in the queue . Thank you.
Thank you, Dixit.
Thank you. Next question comes to the line of Nalin Shah with NVS Brokerage. Please go ahead.
Sir, at the outset, I would like to congratulate for a steady, but I mean, there is still improved growth for the company. I would say that much better dividend payout ratio. I have some just similar questions on this thing, that multi-metal project and on the rare earth elements business, which are supposed to be very, very substantially high value and, I mean, businesses for the, I would say, that future years. How do we see that? Plus, I just wanted to have your word that last time we said that the company GMDC is prepared extremely robust growth plans. By 2030, we want to be as big as or as big as Coal India Limited, which is 20 times bigger, but we want to aim that.
If you can throw some light on various developments which are going to take place for the benefit of our investors.
Nalin, one humble submission. Coal India is 100 times the size of GMDC. We will grow, and the aspiration is to be 7%, 8%, 10% of Coal India. That, again, is very, very big. One correction there. One correction there.
Yes. Okay.
Hopefully, if we ramp up our capacity, our capacity would be in the tune of one of the subsidiaries of Coal India. That is the ambition.
Okay. Okay.
One more request. We have changed the name or updated the name of the multi-metal project at Ambanji to Copper Project Ambanji. Kindly refer to it as that. That is the true value driver of the project. You should see a lot of activity in the coming two years there. A lot of statutory clearances, updations, and inquiry for plant and mine development will be seen in the coming quarters. You would see a lot of activity there.
FY26, will we see some contribution from there, sir?
Nalin, this is a very complicated project because this is an underground mine. Underground mine is very close to a residential place and an ecologically sensitive place. We will have to go totally underground. GMDC does not have past experience of underground mines. In fact, this is going to be the first underground mine in Western India. There is going to be a lot of CapEx spend and a lot of technical work, but the result you should see in two to three years from now.
Okay. So I think maybe FY27 or 2028 only.
I think 2028 would be a right figure because mine development itself would take a lot of time.
Understood.
Just refer to my discussion where I compared the Odisha coal mines with Gujarat lignite mines. The stripping ratio is so there that we are able to break ground and start producing. The same, it takes us some more time in Gujarat, and when it comes to an underground metal project, it will still take more time.
Understood. Understood, sir. Correct.
It would involve putting up a concentrator plant there also. A small plant also has to be put up there.
Correct. Correct. Okay, sir. On rare earth thing, can you throw some light?
We have shared a detailed notification already. Steady work is continuing there. We have received an LOI. Work is going on towards next stages.
Okay. So commercialization will still maybe about a couple of years, a couple of years ahead?
Yes. It is a slightly complex project, but a few years only, not too long into the future.
Okay. Okay. And sir, this bauxite.
We shall keep you updated periodically on it.
Sure, sir. Sir, on bauxite, we have done some 5x tonnes of bauxite. I understand that, I mean, there is a huge opportunity in bauxite. We read that these Guinean mines are almost 60%-70% of the world bauxite export. I am sure that bauxite, there is a huge demand. Are we going to be able to scale it up, I mean, to a significant level in this current year and onwards?
Nalin, that is the plan which was there in the past year, and that is the plan for the current year also.
Okay.
We have two sets of mines, one in Saurashtra and one in Kutch. Earlier, the only Saurashtra one used to do marginally good, and the ones in Kutch used to bleed us. Now all these mines are contributing revenues, and they would contribute significant amounts of revenue, INR 80 crore/INR 90 crore/ INR 100 crore. These are good numbers, but they pale in comparison to what lignite generates.
Correct. Correct. Sir, overall, can we have some guidance about last year we grew by almost about, I would say, that 17%-20% in terms of top line, and bottom line was up by almost about 15%. Can we have some idea about the current year growth plans?
We have laid out the growth plans. It all depends on the margins that we are able to sustain. I have already spoken of the plan to increase our volumes for lignite and other auxiliary minerals also. If coal comes into play, the revenues would definitely go up. Margins will determine how much is left at the bottom of the table.
Correct. Some idea about this, sir, the revenue growth and the PAT levels?
PAT levels, I won't comment, but both of them, they should turn out pretty good.
Yeah, yeah. Revenue should be up by what, about 20% or so we can take a guidance?
It all depends on two things.
Odisha.
Odisha majorly and Bhavnagar.
Okay. I understood.
We are very bullish on both. We are confident there.
Yes, sir. Thank you very much, sir. Once again, congratulations for such a massive exercise to make GMDC one of the top-grade companies. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Nalin.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Divesh Shah with [Uchit Kabra]. Please go ahead.
Hello. Sir, congratulations for a good result. Sir, my questions pertain to our project Shikhar. In the last 10-year report, we had given a vision of 4x in five years by 2030. You have very clearly mentioned about the three categories. If you sum up that three categories, it comes out to be INR 14,500 crore by 2030. Sir, with your opening remarks and the answers you gave to the previous speakers, it looks that we have some delay in this year, 2026. What is the status of 4x by 2030? Is there any delay, or do we still stick to that ambitious target of 4x in 2030? Can you, sir, elaborate? If suppose 2026, we are okay with 10%-15% growth, let us say by 2027, sir, what will be our target in way to project Shikhar? Please, sir.
Okay. Thank you, Divesh. It is so heartening to know that you go through our plans in such great detail, and you look at the pillars also. It depends on the word. Excuse me. It depends more on the word that we use. Is it a critical delay, or is it a slight shift? Since we are dealing with projects spread over hundreds of hectares of land and with human settlements involved, a few quarters here or there are something which we may have to contend with. That we have to contend with where we could not ramp up production last year as we had planned because Bhavnagar was late. This year, we are confident. Odisha project is on track, but our lignite projects are a few quarters delayed.
While there may be a shift of a few quarters here and there, we are quite confident of our journey. Which pillar moves ahead and which slows down is something which we would know, say, in 12- 18 months from now. The company not only has very diligent and detailed plans where the capital and revenue journey up till 2030 is planned, that entire model gets reworked every quarter. The management and the senior management is also given visibility on it. The board is updated biannually. With so much visibility, what we hope and expect is a shift here and there. The kind of concern that some people may have with getting derailed or getting pushed back by a number of years, that may look like an unlikely scenario at the moment.
Sir, you stick to the target of 2030, INR 14,500 crore, or there is a reduction in the projection if you can frankly tell to the investors, sir?
No. There is nothing to hide. It would be a few quarters here or there, but we hold on to our numbers.
Okay. Sir, today we are about INR 2,800 crore turnover. Sir, so when you expect by 2027, we will be a INR 5,000 crore revenue company, sir? Please. If not 2026, 2027. Because in the next four years, if we want to achieve not INR 14,500, suppose INR 12,000, then by 2027, my math says that we should be INR 5,000 crore if you go reverse way.
I would have faith in your calculations.
Okay. Sir, what will be the revenue from, I think the biggest contributor to this project Shikhar will be new coal mines. In the first two years, leave aside the one year of opening or breaking mines. In the first two years of operation, what will be the expected revenue from coal mine? Two years, first two years.
Vivek, like I said, I would compare my new lignite projects with the Odisha coal projects. The ramp-up will be much, much faster there compared to lignite projects. Our journey till 2030, we plan to reach our peak capacity there. Thereafter, the projection for revenues is very, very promising. The peak capacity that we have can also be expanded. If out of these three mines, even if two are on track and are able to expand, we should see very good and comfortable numbers.
Sir, for copper mine, after the delay in the first year, what will be the production for copper mine or revenue terms in the first full year of operation? As and when it happens.
Copper is, again, like I said, almost one and a half to two years will go in just sinking shafts and building an underground mine. Parallel activity would be putting a plant in place. The revenues should be accruing towards the end of the projection that we had given for 2030. It is, in a sense, a lot of hard work and expenditure till there. We have a very clear idea on how much we are spending there. We have shared it also with you. That is a lot of systematic hard work.
Sir, my last question regarding CapEx. CapEx for next four years, how you will finance the CapEx?
We are fairly comfortable there. We have decent reserves in the range of INR 2,000 crore, and we see them going up only. We have had conversations with the state lending authorities, and we have a line of credit from them. So we are fairly comfortable there.
Sir, every year, how much CapEx do you expect for the beginning of all new mines for the next two years at least?
This journey till 2030, we have planned for a CapEx in the range of INR 13,000 crore, out of which generally it should be a steady number between INR 1,500 crore-INR 2,000 crore. It may get peaked for two years in this journey. At the moment, it falls somewhere in between. Like I said, it could go back or be pushed early also. It is a steady and mature CapEx.
Okay, sir. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Aman with Augmenta Asset Manager LLP. Please go ahead.
Hi sir, congratulations on a great set of numbers and thank you for the opportunity. Sir, I just want to understand that, for example, in 2030, we did some volumes of 8 million tonnes in the lignite shadow business. Can you just guide some guys on the production that can be expected from both the new mines and the old mines together? Can we expect the current rate of 8-9 million tonnes from the same over the next maybe one year or what are we aiming for more here? Secondly, on the pricing side of the thing, currently, this quarter, according to calculation, the pricing was somewhere around INR 3,400 per ton. On that, we are making some above around INR 800-INR 890 per ton.
Is this the steady state of margins or the prices that you are incorporating for the future, maybe from the baseline results?
Okay. Aman, I'll answer your question. I'll try and explain the lignite journey that GMDC has planned for itself. Till last year, we had five mines, existing lignite mines. Now, we have four only. One has closed down. By the turn of this decade, we would have only one which is growing and probably one or two which are petering out. So the production from these mines would be nearing exhaustion. That is the time these five years when production from our new mines would be kicking in. In a decade from now, we plan to see, we expect to see lignite production in the range of 15 million tonnes by GMDC from Gujarat-based lignite. This is the journey that is planned out for lignite. Pricing? Last to last year, the margins were better. Last year were good.
At the moment, they are holding well despite all the global turbulence. This is a dynamic thing which we are very mindful of. All our customers and all our investors eagerly await our monthly update on price. We take a call on it, taking a multifaceted review of factors that affect our price. In the end, we will not do anything which is unviable for us, but we would like to continue to hold on to our volumes and customers. That is what we are committed to.
Sir, the steady state rendered out between anywhere between 8-9 million tonnes will be the rendered going forward as well, right? Over the next maybe over the next two years?
No, no. This will get much better. As Valia, Lakhpat, and Kamlay come into play, because they have long gestations, as you see production from them, then you should see this changing very fast.
Sir, this is the number which you are telling, our growth of 10%-15% including late-night business. This we are expecting from the new mines addition or from the existing only?
Like I said, only from our existing mines.
Okay. So new mines will start contributing?
The new mines have a longer lead time because the stripping ratio in Gujarat is higher. The same is much lower in Odisha, so that is why we speak of groundbreaking realization in the same year. There is a fundamental difference in the kind of resource and the effort that is required.
Okay. Also, sir, can you just throw some light on the lignite demand? Currently, as somewhere in the previous years, correct me if I'm wrong, you mentioned that we control 25% of the lignite market in India. We have a 25% market share of whatever this number, I don't remember. What does the demand dynamic look like? Is there enough demand for business lignite in the country or the existing areas?
Aman, our market surveys and analysis say there is demand. There is demand for this fuel. This fuel gets sold along with and as a competition to domestic and imported coal. This continues to stay relevant. As we ramp up our production, we are going to initiate efforts towards beyond Gujarat sales also. That is an initiative that you should see unfolding in this current year. We are preparing for ramp-up capacity for our new mines next year onwards.
Understood. Sir, we will see that we have been approaching, we have been giving out tenders for the overburden removals for the Odisha mines and some strategic associations from some consultants from a topic that will go beyond the Odisha mines and then new rare earth space. What are we looking for exactly? Can we expect the groundbreaking this year from the Odisha mines?
Aman, your voice was very unclear. Odisha is clear. Could you please repeat?
Can we expect groundbreaking from Odisha mines this year?
Oh, yes. That is what we said. This year, not only do we expect groundbreaking, if it happens, we expect revenues and sales.
Understood. Understood. Thank you so much, sir.
From a Baitarani West mine, which is going to be one of the largest coal mines in the country.
Okay. Okay. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Dixit Doshi with Whitestone Financial Advisors Pvt Ltd. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity again. You did mention that, just one clarification. You mentioned that coal mine, this Baitarani West, has a peak capacity of 15 million tonnes. Let's say once we start, we can ramp up very fast. By FY30, we can reach that peak production, right?
Yes, please.
Okay. And.
We can take it beyond that also. That is permitted in the statutory framework. Once we reach that, then we take a call on taking it further also.
Okay. Regarding the Bhurapahar mine, by when will that be commercialized?
We have staggered the investment between these two mines, and we have at the moment chosen to fast-pedal Baitarani West, the larger mine with less stripping ratio. Whereas for Bhurapahar, we have staggered it by a year. In the meantime, we are exploring, please see our website. We are looking for partners for underground coal gasification. That is the journey towards blue hydrogen, which is less carbon intensive. The EOI has been received well. It is currently live. We have interest from large corporate players and technology players both.
Okay. So coal production from Bhurapahar will be slightly back-ended because our initial focus is on a Baitarani mine. Okay. Okay. And regarding this lignite production, just one clarification again is that from over time, we'll be doing 10%-15% growth over the next two years. And the new six mines, from there, two-three mines will start contributing something from FY27 onwards.
Yes.
Okay.
Which of these six mines are not similar? They vary in size and complexity very much. The ones which are going to be amongst the flag bearers are Lakhpat, Valia, and Damlai. That is where we see most volumes. While the other ones are also there, they also bring volumes, but they are not so big. They are also being prioritized, but our eyes are on the bigger pie.
Okay. These three, can they contribute in FY27, say, 2-3 million tonne, or it will be lower in the initial years?
Probably yes. Probably yes. Depending on the state of the clearances.
Okay. Any update on the Limestone mines? By when that will also start contributing?
Dixit, limestone mine is the Lakhpat mine. The plan is to take out, so first you have soil, then you have limestone, and then you have lignite. The plan is to extract limestone systematically so that it can be used by our partners. We already have three partners which we got through a national competitive bidding process. Then we reach lignite. The journey of reaching lignite for the Lakhpat mine is almost a year-long journey.
Okay.
From when you begin to when you reach late-night, because there is mineral in between and we do not want to spoil it, we will be taking it out systematically through surface miners, stacking it, or giving it to our partners.
Okay. One last question. Let's say on the CapEx side, we are targeting around INR 2,500 crore broadly per year CapEx. Now we do have INR 2,000 crore of reserves, and also we are generating INR 500 crore-INR 600 crore profit every year. Let's say INR 300 crore because 50% we pay out as dividend. Over the next two- three years, what kind of debt level are we expecting?
Current year and next year, we don't expect to take any debt. Probably towards the end of next financial year, we'll start taking on debt.
FY27 end, we will start taking debt?
That is the scenario our modeling for the moment says.
Okay. And CapEx will be there too, INR 2,500 million every year?
The total journey is INR 13,000 crore plus. It has to be done by 2030. It would tend to get concentrated in two years, but you should see a steady rate of at least INR 2,000 crore.
Okay. Just last one question. On the coal mine.
Dixit, this is 50% of our CapEx is land. Now, it flows out very quickly once everything is in place. If you were putting up a plant, if you were a manufacturing company, we could stagger it out and plan it very gently. When things get cleared, it goes very quickly.
Okay. Understood. Understood. One last question on the coal side. I think these mines we have acquired through e-auction. What kind of sharing will we have to do in terms of, say, royalty and other charges? Or you can say what kind of EBITDA margin we can do in coal business? A broad range is fine. I know it depends on the market price at that point of time, but a broad rough working will be fine.
Dixit, pricing, I'm not at liberty to comment. We have a price point and we have interested players. Price point, I am not at liberty to say. The share that we give to the government is in the range of 30% for one mine and 40% for the other one. As per our modelings, this works out.
Okay. Okay. Fine. That's it from my side. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Shreyansh Gathani , the SG Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening, sir. My question is on the coal mines. Just trying to understand what the calorific value differential would be and what the pricing differential would be versus lignite at this point. I know you answered we do not have a price point that we want to disclose at this point, but just trying to understand for each million tonne of lignite versus coal, what kind of revenue differential we should be expecting.
S , this ihreyanshs slightly, although it is broadly the same product, but regimes and geographies totally different. It is like comparing apples and oranges. Our mines are for thermal coal. They are G11, G12, which is a fairly good grade, 4,000 calories plus. Our lignite mines are in the range of 3,500 GCV, which has a different index for it. Like I said, geography is different, indices are different, price points are different, neighborhood is different. A comparison will not be fair. In Odisha, since the volumes are high and it is a crowded market, there we will be chasing volumes.
Okay. Okay. So price should be, realization should be in ballpark, they should be very significantly different than what we currently have for lignite?
We should look at slightly lesser margins there, but more volumes.
Okay.
These are huge mines. Baitarni West is 15 million tonnes per annum by the end of this decade and can potentially go up to 22.5. All this 8/ 10 million lignite may look peanuts in front of it at some point of time.
Got it. Got it. Understood, sir. Next question on the lignite pricing. Are we still pricing at a discount to Indonesian coal, or where do we stand in terms of the discount? We narrowed the gap quite significantly in the last two, three years, but at what point are we at currently?
We are at a discount. The discount varies from end location to end location, but we are again at a discount. If we eliminate that discount, we do not sell. Our customers are smaller MSME players. They are slightly emotional, and we are vocal to their needs.
Got it. No, I understood that. Just wanted to know what is the magnitude of discount that you have now versus initially it was, I believe, 60%-70% discount in 2021 or 2022, if I remember. We brought that, we narrowed the gap, so.
10%-15% easily.
Okay. Okay. Next question on the power plant. If you could give, what is the new PPA that's signed? What is the rate at which the new PPA signed versus what the older one was at? When would that be into effect, the new PPA?
The new PPA would get into effect the moment the plant starts working. The main difference between the previous and the new PPA is that earlier PPA did not incentivize GMDC to spend money to maintain and upgrade its plant. That is the main difference.
Okay. So in terms of the pricing, we are still at the same price point?
No, our power will be 30% more expensive, but the electricity regulator has agreed to it.
Okay. Okay. Understood. When you mentioned that it's on the maintenance side, is that we are going to be able to get the maintenance from the regulators or whoever we sell? That is a part of the agreement versus initially we had to put it out of our own pocket?
Let me answer it in this way. The thermal business is a business of fixed returns where the returns are guaranteed based on your investment. Here the PPA was slightly harsher. Because of that harsh PPA, the plant could not invest in itself, and it gradually degraded to a point of crisis. In that crisis, we've had to make a special CapEx. That CapEx has been allowed to be passed through, and that has been part of the PPA. Hence, the price will rise.
Okay. Okay. So now we should expand your.
As an investor, if you're invested in us, I would like to reassure you that these INR 300 crore-INR 400 crore that we have spent are we are going to get it back as a pass-through from the purchaser and the regulator.
Okay. Okay. That is helpful. Is there a time frame that we'll get it by, or is it going to be adjusted in the price of electricity or something like that?
Of course, it will get adjusted in the price of electricity, but that is not our call. That is the purchaser's call at which he further sells it. As a company, we will get a pass-through for this expense. We will have to approach the electricity regulator and hope for a fair hearing by them where they allow most of the expense that has been made.
Got it. Got it. Thank you. Just last question. What would be the ROEs? ROEs should be coming back to, for NTPC and those, we see 12% or so. We should be coming back to those levels in terms of just numbers for the power plant?
ROE for these plants are fixed. As a sustained business, you have to match three or four critical parameters of the regulator and the buyer, which are PLF, auxiliary, heat rate. Those are rates which were ORI because the plant had deteriorated. With the refurbished plant, we plan to start making some money on this plant.
Understood. Understood. At an optimum PLF, what kind of captive consumption of lignite do we expect per year?
Around a million.
Okay. Got it. Got it. That's it from my end. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Abhijit Mithra with Aionios Alpha Investment Management. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. Just conceptually to understand, we are guiding for 15 million tonne by the end of this decade as far as lignite is concerned. How would that break up between existing mines and new mines?
Okay. So I think let me correct it. 15 million tonnes by 2035.
Okay.
Because these are large mines with large stripping ratios, they will take time to ramp up.
Okay.
Yes.
This would be entirely from new mines as the existing mines will sort of run out of production, is it? I mean.
They would still continue to contribute 30%, but 70% would come from the newer ones.
Okay. What would be the gradient of rundown of volumes for the existing mines? As in over the next two to three years, will the volumes start coming off from the existing mines?
No. No. Not till 2030.
Not till 2030. Understood. Understood.
There may be a minor correction here or there, but not really.
Okay. Got it. Got it. And just to sort of understand the profile of the CapEx, because we were planning for INR 3,000 crore in FY 25, but we could end up doing only INR 644 crore. So the remaining and we were sort of planning, I think, INR 3,000 crore each year for 2025, 2026, and 2027 as far as I can make out from the previous transcripts. To make up for this slipped CapEx of INR 2,500 crore, are we sort of intensifying or looking to intensify the CapEx profile for 2026 and 2027? I mean, if the CapEx number can be as high as, say, INR 4,500 crore each year, or we are still sort of going with, say, around INR 1,500 crore-INR 2,000 crore-INR 2,500 crore, that range?
Let me explain it conceptually first, and then we'll take a view on what it looks like. So 46% of this CapEx, of this INR 13,000 crore, will go in land. 15% would go in R&R. 30% would go towards plant and machinery. Now, plant and machinery are something which we should see happening in one and a half to two years from now. And that will be a steady outflow of CapEx because you know the progression of civil or technical construction. Land and R&R, these are two animals which continue to surprise us. For the last year, we have been seeing these being pushed back by a few quarters because some clearance or some issue keeps on cropping up. This is something, like I said in my previous reply, if it gets resolved, it goes very, very quickly.
Like the current disbursement which is going on at Baitarani West. Now, when it goes, it goes very quickly. So this is my view on it, but you should see it at the moment going back by a few quarters in the current year and probably the next year. But if it gets resolved, you may see it coming back by a few quarters front-ended also. That is the challenge that we see in our journey till 2030. One or two years of very heavy CapEx where we may have to take on slightly more debt than we had planned.
Got it. Understood. That is very clear. What would be the distribution of this CapEx between, say, lignite, coal, and copper as well as rare earth? What would be the broad distribution of this CapEx?
Approximately INR 3,000 crore for the critical mineral, INR 3,000crore INR -4,000 crore for critical mineral projects, two of them. INR 4,000 crore for our coal projects, INR 3,000 crore for our lignite projects. We would still need to spend in excess of INR 1,000 crore for our existing lignite projects also because here also land has to be acquired, and it has to be sold.
Got it. Got it. Understood. Great. Thanks. Wish you all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Reminder to all the participants that you may press star and one to ask a question. Next question comes from the line of Anurag Chheda with Jay Ram Stock Brokers. Please go ahead.
Thank you so much, sir, for the presentation. Am I audible?
Yes, Anurag.
Okay. I wanted to ask, is GMDC going to work with rare earth elements like for extraction and separation of rare earth elements? And if you are going to, then which all metals are you going to work for extraction?
Any other question? I'll take all questions and then I'll reply.
No, that's it. That's it. Thank you so much.
Anurag, we have made our intention that we will be entering the critical mineral space. One is rare earth, and the second is copper. Plans are underway. A lot of hard work is underway. The value drivers will be rare earths which go towards making permanent magnets.
Any specific in rare earth?
I am at liberty to say what I've already said only.
Okay. All right. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as there are no further questions, we have reached the end of the Q&A session. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
I would like to thank all people who have showed interest in conversing with us over this conference. Thank you so much. It was a good session. Thank you again.
Thank you. On behalf of Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.