Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Gravita India Limited Q4 FY25 earnings conference call hosted by Antique Stock Broking Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference has been recorded. I now hand the conference over to Manish Mahavir. T hank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. On behalf of Antique Stock Broking, I would like to welcome all the participants on the 4Q FY2025 earnings call of Gravita India. We have Mr. Yogesh Malhotra, Whole-time Director and CEO; Mr. Vijay Pareek, Executive Director; Mr. Naveen Sharma, Executive Director; Mr. Sunil Kansal, Whole-time Director and CFO, on the call. Without further ado, I would like to hand over the call to Mr. Malhotra for opening remarks, post which we will open the floor for Q&A. Thank you. Over to Mr. Malhotra.
Yeah, thank you, Mr. Manish. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our Q4 and FY2025 earnings call. I trust you've had the chance to go through the earnings presentation and financial results that were uploaded on the stock exchanges. I'm delighted to share that FY2025 marked a year of strong operational and financial growth for Gravita, culminating in the highest-ever revenue, EBITDA, and PAT. A five-year CAGR of 23% in revenue and 57% in PAT underscores the company's strong growth momentum, further strengthened by its net debt-free status. Before delving into results, I will briefly discuss the strategic highlights and project updates. Credit rating agency ICRA Limited has upgraded our rating to ICRA AA- table from ICRA A+ table. Gravita India Limited has strengthened its global footprint with the strategic acquisition of a waste tire recycling plant in Europe.
A special purpose vehicle in Romania has been formed with Gravita Netherlands, holding an 80% equity stake and management control, while local partners hold the remaining shares. With a total investment of INR 40 crore, of which INR 32 crore is contributed by GNBV, the newly acquired waste tire recycling plant has a capacity of 18,000 metric tons per annum. This strategic move aligns with Gravita's commitment to expanding its recycling operations and advancing sustainability initiatives across Europe. We are progressing steadily with the startup of a pilot lithium-ion battery recycling project and our inaugural rubber recycling facility in Mundra, India. Both are scheduled to be operational by the first half of FY2026. The board of directors has approved an interim dividend of INR 6.35 per equity share, reinforcing Gravita's position as a consistent dividend-paying company with a 14-year track record of sustainable payouts.
Gravita is making strategic strides towards achieving its ESG targets for FY 2027, FY 2034, and FY 2050, as outlined in its long-term roadmap. Through the integration of ESG principles, the company aspires to lead in sustainable practices, foster innovation, and maintain robust governance to create lasting value and positive community impact. Coming to the operational performance, on the capacity expansion front, Gravita continues to scale operations, having reached 334,000 metric tons per annum in capacity in FY 2025 and is aiming for a significant milestone of 700,000 plus MTPA by FY 2028. The company has CAPEX planning totaling INR 1,500 crore to be deployed by FY 2028, encompassing both expansion of existing operations and investment in new verticals, including lithium-ion, paper, rubber, and steel recycling. Of the total, approximately INR 1,000 crore is allocated to existing verticals, while the remaining is earmarked for new initiatives.
On the volume front, we saw an overall growth of 20% and 13% in FY 2025 and Q4 FY 2025, respectively. On quarterly basis, volume for lead and aluminum showed an increase of 12% and 62% on Y-on-Y basis. Stringent government regulations under BWMR and EPR have driven a significant 60% rise in domestically sourced scrap. 43% of the total scrap was sourced from the domestic market, as compared to 30% in last year. Coming to quarterly EBITDA per ton performance, EBITDA per ton of lead and aluminum increased significantly by 6% and 30% on a year-on-year basis. EBITDA per ton of lead was INR 20,466, aluminum was INR 19,836, and plastic was INR 9,882. Moving to consolidated financial results for FY 2025, Gravita has reached new milestones, posting record performance in revenue, EBITDA, and PAT. Revenue increased by 22% to INR 3,869 crore.
46% of the revenue came from value-added products, which is in line with our vision 2029 of achieving 50% revenues from this category. Adjusted EBITDA increased to INR 404 crore, up by 22%. EBITDA margins stood strong at 10.43%. PAT showed a significant increase of 31% to INR 312 crore. PAT margin increased to 8%. ROIC pre-tax for FY 2025 is standing strong at 27%, which is in line with our vision 2029. The cash flow from operations increased significantly from INR 42 crore to INR 282 crore. Coming to consolidated financial results for the quarter, revenue for FY 2025 increased by 20% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter to INR 1,037 crore. Adjusted EBITDA increased to INR 109 crore, up 17% and 6% on Y-on-Y and Q-on-Q bases, respectively. EBITDA margin stood strong at 10.5%. PAT showed significant increase of 38% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter to INR 95 crore. PAT margin stood strong at 9%.
In conclusion, Gravita is making strong strides toward achieving its vision 2029 with a clear strategic focus on scaling existing verticals and expanding into new areas such as lithium-ion, rubber, steel, and paper recycling. The company has set ambitious targets, including a volume CAGR of over 25%, profitability growth exceeding 35%, and ROIC above 25%. It also aims to increase the contribution of its non-lead business to over 30%, source more than 30% of its energy from renewables, and cut energy consumption by over 10%. With over three decades of experience in 13 environmentally friendly facilities across the globe and a footprint in more than 70 countries, Gravita is well-positioned for sustained growth. Its robust CAPEX and capacity expansion plans, compliance with strict regulatory standards, global presence, and integrated supply chain form a solid foundation.
This momentum is further reinforced by a commitment to operational excellence, a focus on high-margin, value-added products, proactive risk management through hedging, an experienced leadership team, and strong stakeholder support. That's all from my end. I would now request to open the floor for questions and answers. Thank you, and move over to you, moderator.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Amit Lahoti from Emkay. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on the aluminum business. There is expectation that ADC12 is going to be listed on Shanghai Futures Exchange this month. Would it allow us to hedge on SHFE, or we would still have to wait for MCX listing for ADC12?
It's already there on Shanghai Futures Exchange, ADC12. We were discussing that it will be listed on MCX. That is under the process because BIS and QCU have been introduced on aluminum alloy in December 2024, and now process is on. As soon as this is being listed on MCX, then it will be product will be also approved and listed on MCX India only.
Yeah, Mr. Amit, I'm Yogesh. Actually, a substantial part of our aluminum business depends on the Indian market. For that business, we were targeting MCX registration. Although our overseas businesses do not require that hedging right now because, as Mr. Naveen rightly said, it's already there on Chinese Exchange, Shanghai Exchange. We were focusing on MCX registration so that our Indian business can also increase.
Okay. Is there any clarity in terms of timeline when it could be listed on MCX?
MCX timeline within this H1 or hopefully maybe Q1 possibility. There are already processes on.
Okay. My second question is on growth guidance. I appreciate that 25% per annum revenue growth target is over five years, and it is not going to be linear. Could you indicate a specific guidance range for FY2026, given that there is still some time left before we commission the Mundra project? In H1 of this year, there might be some slowness in volumes growth.
No. As you rightly mentioned, these growth numbers cannot be linear because it all depends on how the CAPEX is being done. We are planning to do a CAPEX of around INR 3.75 billion this year. The overall plan is to do a CAPEX of around INR 15 billion in the next three years. We are very fairly confident that we will increase the capacities as guided of around 25%-30% year-on-year for the next three years.
Okay. For this particular year, FY2026, if you can give any specific range of guidance of volumes growth or revenue growth, whichever year.
In line with the overall projections of around 25%. It can be around 20% also, 30% also, depending on how the CAPEX is getting done.
Okay. Got it. Thank you. I'll put myself back in the queue.
Thank you, Mr.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Bharat Shah from ASK Investment Managers Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, Yogesh.
Good morning, sir.
Ji. First question, the guidance that we reputate for 25% ROIC in excess of 25% ROIC. I thought two factors would mean that ROIC should be much higher. One, that if the domestic sourcing improves, I suppose working capital relatively will come down. I mean, I don't know whether that is a correct assumption, but you can highlight on that. Secondly, you also mentioned about 9% net profit margin. Of course, it is for this quarter, not for the year. It is the highest net profit margin in the history of Gravita in any quarter. If this is somewhat like a benchmark, then given the fact that margins would improve as well as working capital investment will reduce, given the strong growth, should it not mean that ROIC should be much higher? Because we've already reached 27% in the year gone by.
First of all, when we give this ROIC of 25% plus, that is a benchmark that we have created that any business that we go into, whether it is existing business in a new geography or a new business in some other vertical, that is going to be the benchmark ROIC for us, 25%. Any business that comes across that is not giving 25% ROIC, we would not be going into that. That is a benchmark ROIC. Definitely, the overall going beyond 25%, you're very right. As far as Indian business is concerned, you're right that the inventory cost would come down. At the same time, what will happen is that the margin or the EBITDA per ton or per kg for Indian scrap is lower than what we get from the overseas market.
The overall is also going to be above 25%. This is what we are talking about, the consolidated ROC coming from all the verticals across all the plants, including new businesses also. It will not drop down below 25%. Definitely, it can go above 25% also.
Okay. So it will be prudent to assume ROIC in the range of 25%-30% over a period of time?
Yes, sir.
Okay. Secondly, just wanted to understand the expected tax rate, which so far has been in the range of 11%-13% or 14%. Going ahead, how do we see the tax rate per se?
Yes, sir. It should be in the range of 12%-13% only because there was some treasury income in this quarter. It was slightly higher. If you remove that part, even the treasury part, which will be removed gradually as we will be using this money for the business purposes, it should be in the range of 12%-13% only.
Okay. One last thing. When you set up a new facility, either within the country or outside, typically, what is the kind of time it takes for you to set up a new facility? If it is a greenfield or if it is a brownfield, what is the kind of time it takes?
When we talk about India, then for a greenfield project, it takes anywhere between one to one and a half years. In a brownfield, we can increase capacity within six to nine months. The only issue overseas is that in some countries, it takes a long period to get the initial licenses. Everything depends on this. For example, in Dominican Republic, the licenses are taking longer than we had projected. It all depends on licenses. Otherwise, just putting up a plant is not at all an issue for us because, as you know, we also make our own plant and machinery equipment. That can be done very easily. The only time that sometimes gets delayed is because of these licenses that are to be taken from the government.
Okay. Thank you. If I'm permitted, just one last question. On the project side, 20 projects, are they kind of winding down that activity, or is it just that the year gone by, it has been a muted one?
Yeah, yeah. It all depends on where people are putting in more projects or whether they are putting more projects or not. It all depends on that. In fact, we are trying to include other verticals also in our project division, like rubber and plastic recycling. Also, we are trying to make plant and machinery for these verticals also. We, in any case, are going to increase volumes from our turnkey projects. The fact remains that it becomes a strategic part of our business because it also gives you the benefit in terms of understanding the operational issues and then making plant and equipment that support those operational issues or that can take care of those operational issues. It is kind of an R&D facility for us.
In any case, the volumes may go down on a year-on-year basis because of whether people are putting in more CAPEX or not. This is definitely going to increase in years to come.
All right. Thank you so much, and all the very best.
Thank you, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nikhil Agrawal from Kotak PMS. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Just wanted to understand when any time or if you're realizing your EPR credits and how much would that be approximately?
Sir, the EPR that comes from battery procurement, most of the procurement, as you know, we are doing our kind of tolling business where we are procuring it on behalf of the major OEMs. The EPR that we generate, we pass it on to the battery manufacturers. There is also some local procurement that we do. Currently, those EPRs are with us. In future, of course, the quantities of EPR because of local procurement will increase. That will depend basically on this reverse charge mechanism coming into picture for battery scrap also, which is currently not there. Once that starts, the EPR generation from local suppliers would also increase.
Okay. Any timeline of realizing the credits? I mean, when will it start flowing into the revenues going forward?
It will not impact the bottom line. We are very clear that because it's a tool that will enable you to give higher price for the scrap and then collect those scrap from the local market, which currently goes to the unorganized sector. We are not taking any revenues from these EPRs going forward. It is going to be profit neutral. Any profit that will come would be incremental only, and we are not considering those profits in our future growth plan.
Informal to family.
Okay. Okay. Okay. That's it from me. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Dixit from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Good morning, everyone. Congratulations for a record performance for the year and the quarter. A couple of questions from my side. The first one is, if I turn to slide number 8, where you have mentioned that the profitability of overseas operations in Q4 is 25% of overall. Now, if I compare it with Q3, the profitability of overseas operations was 53%. Just wanted to understand the reason behind this drop. If on a long-term basis, until FY2029, as you have sounded your key tenets, if we can have a similar aspiration for overseas business profitability?
You have to look at our profit on a consolidated basis because what happens is sometimes we import a lot of materials from our own plants into India, and sometimes we select directly depending on what the market is globally. During those times, you'll see some reduction in profits from overseas center, whereas in Indian plants, you'll see higher profits and vice versa also. This is a very dynamic situation. We look at every quarter on which market is better and whether we should import those materials into India or we export directly to other countries. That is one part. Slightly also, there was some hiccup in our Mozambique operations because there were elections, and after elections, there was certain unrest in that geography. Part of the profits got diluted because the operations were hit in Mozambique.
Now, as we speak, it's in perfectly normal conditions again. These two things contributed. The major part of that increase or decrease in overseas volume or profitability is because we sometimes bring that material into India and realize the profits in India. Another reason to this was because in India, we got some treasury income. Because of that, the contribution from Indian bottom line was slightly higher. That's also one of the reasons for this.
Okay. On a, let us say, on a, I mean, steady basis, what kind of profitability, I mean, do we target? If you can give a broad range, that also would be great.
On a sustainable basis, around 40%-50% of the total profitability you can expect to come from overseas, and around 50%-60% would come from India.
Wonderful. The second question is, again, slide 9, where we have detailed the CAPEX. While I will not go into 2027, 2028, on 2026, where the CAPEX is jumping up sharply, if you can just break it in, I mean, where it is being done for FY2026, the INR 375 crore.
Yeah. One second. Yeah. Basically, it includes the CAPEX, which is in the existing verticals like lead. We are increasing some capacities in Mundra also, in Jaipur also for the existing plants. We are planning one more plant in India to have more coverage of some locations where we do not have presence at this moment. That is the part for India. Other than that, we are also increasing capacities in plastic and rubber in India. That is also covered. We are putting up some facilities outside India, like Dominican Republic is the country where we are putting capacities for recycling, including lead recycling. We are also increasing capacity in existing plant in Romania, which we recently acquired. Expansion of Romania is also covered in this. We are very aggressive on rubber.
We may have one or two more plants in rubber in India. We have also considered that in this CAPEX plan. Yeah, that's all. These are the things.
Sir, just two follow-ups from this. One is Romania. Are we going to expand in rubber only in Romania, or is it a new vertical in Romania?
Initially, we will expand in rubber in this year. We are also looking at opportunities not only in Romania but in the entire Eastern European countries to look for other opportunities in other recycling verticals also. Maybe next year, that may materialize in next year only, not this year.
Will there be any expansion in Eastern India this year?
Mr. Sunil mentioned that we are putting up a plant in India, and that could be in Eastern India also or some other location also, geography. We are still finalizing the location. We will convey whenever we finalize the location exactly to the investors.
Got it, sir. Thanks so much and all the best.
Thank you. Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Srinath V from Bellwether Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Would like to understand what are our plans in the rubber space? What is the kind of product that we are working on? Is it like a basket of products, or is it only pyrolysis? Wanted to understand what are we doing in rubber, especially in India?
This will be all product together. Some places, we will be doing pyrolysis. Some places, we will be making value-added products like sheets or crumb rubber. Also, we are working to make reclaimed carbon black from char which is generated from rubber. One of the by-products is steel. As of now, steel will be staying, and we may see that we can further do recycling for that product. It will be all basket: sheets, pyrolysis, RCB, crumb rubber, even road construction and all.
Got it. Sir, can you basically go a little more nuanced in each of these products to understand what is the kind of scale that we are looking at in? These products, if sold into the tire universe, they all would require validations, and that process, from my understanding, takes a bit of time. Where are we, say, in a carbon black? Are the carbon black producers started sampling our product just to get an understanding of where we are in the evolution, sir?
Currently, we are not producing anything in reclaimed carbon rubber or carbon black. What we are currently doing is only pyrolysis oil in the locations wherever we are present. The plant that we acquired in Romania has the capability to develop reclaimed carbon black also, but it is still not under production. In the coming quarters, we will be starting the plant line that is currently not under production. Eventually, by the end of this year, we will probably be getting some of that material sold to the tire companies, but not before that. In India, because of setting up the plant right now, as I mentioned, it will be coming in H1 of this year. Any sampling would only happen after the plant is in production, not before that.
Got it. Just last one, sir. What is the size of our capacity we are putting, sir, in the H1 plant?
The total capacity in this year would be around 60,000 metric tons per annum. Part of it will come in H1, and part of it will come in H2.
Okay. So basically, two pyrolysis reactors?
It's not only pyrolysis reactor. It is a pyrolysis reactor also and a reclaimed carbon black—sorry—and a crumb rubber or rubber sheet plant also.
Okay. Okay. Will we be able to do micronized rubber sheets also, sir, like winding T-mesh, the slightly more finer variety, or?
Yes. Yes, we have micronized also.
Oh, perfect. Perfect. Perfect. Thanks, sir. I'll get back to the question queue.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Parikshit Kabra from Pkeday Advisors LLP. Please go ahead.
Hi. Congratulations on a great quarter. The results are fantastic. Congratulations. First, a quick question. You mentioned that this time around, there's also treasury income. Can you give the breakup about what was in other income, how much of it was treasury income, and how much of it was the hedging income that you have generated?
Yeah. There were two parts of that. One is the treasury income. In this quarter, it was around INR 90 million. Another part was that we saved some interest costs, which we caused; we reduced our debt. Approximately INR 70 million, we reduced the debt cost. Overall impact in this quarter on the bottom line, approximately INR 150 million-INR 160 million because of this additional liquidity.
15-16 crore pre-tax?
Pre-tax, yes.
Pre-tax. Got it. Okay. Perfect. The other question that I had is that we set a guidance for five years, and we've been doing that every single year. Since 2022, at least, that's when the last I could find the documented evidence. In 2022, five-year guidance is now going to be coming to an end in this financial year, right? Going back to that guidance, are we going to be achieving those numbers in FY2026? Are you guys confident of that?
Sure. The guidance that we keep giving is around 25% revenue growth and around 30% profit growth, right?
Yeah. 35% profit growth, but yeah.
If you look at it, we've grown in the last five years by 22% in revenue numbers and 57% in profitability numbers. We have surpassed those targets that we set for ourselves.
I understand. If I look at FY2022 numbers and I take your guidance for FY2026 for both revenue and profit, then based on today's numbers, in FY2206, you will require, to meet that guidance, a revenue growth of 40% and a profit growth of 57%.
You are saying that okay. Understood your question. Basically, when you see that from 2022- 2027, right?
2026. 2026. You have given vision 2026.
2026.
Okay. Yeah. Basically, yes, we may—as we mentioned, this is not—in one year, it could be lower, but in another, it could be higher. Gradually, yes, we are targeting those numbers.
Okay. Understood. Next, I'm just wondering here that I understand that we do not really do that much business in the U.S., so Trump tariffs are not a concern for us in that manner. Are there any indirect concerns because of a shift in how trade happens? Can there be any indirect issues that affect our business? One. Number two, are we worried about the logistics cost, the shipping cost? Right now, from what I understand, there has been a cutdown in demand of shipping. Eventually, if and when the tariffs come off, there can be again excess demand in shipping.
At that time, again, our logistics cost may rise. Is that a concern for us?
Yeah. So definitely, because what will happen is that a lot of containers would get stuck in China because, so that definitely, on a short-term basis, logistic cost could go up and would impact the profits. Right now, it's not having any impact right now as we speak. There may be in future something like that that can impact. Fortunately, for Gravita, it's only going to be a short-term issue if it is going to be because eventually, the scrap prices from these countries would come down. It will accommodate the increase in freight prices also. Anything that can happen globally would only have a short-term impact and not a long-term impact. We also have this advantage of having global operations, so we can ship from any country to any country. The impact on Gravita would be comparatively less than the competitors.
Got it. Got it. All right. Great. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all participants in the conference, please limit your questions to two per participant. The next question is from the line of Basant Patel, NP from THG AMC. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, just wanted to understand on the left-out MAT credit. Still, our tax rates are under 15%. Will this continue for how many years? Can you please throw some light on this? What is the left-out MAT credit still?
Mat credit, we have entire mat credit, whatever, because now we are already—we are very sure on this. This mat credit came up because we are getting some exemption in tax in India. That was the reason. We have already got some successful assessments of income tax, where we already got approved that all the tax benefits. We are considering all the mat credits into the books. There is nothing left-out mat credit which is not recognized in the books of accounts. Whatever—and the total mat credit which will be used in this next six to seven years is going to be around INR 30 crore. That will reduce the tax outflow. On the bottom-line side, we are considering all the mat credit.
Can we expect the tax rates to go up for the current year and next year going ahead? Will it remain in the 15% range of the GDP level?
The tax rate will be the blended tax rate because we have certain exemptions in overseas. The blended tax rate should be closer to 12-13% on a global basis. As we are already considering the MAT credit in India also, the tax rate for India is also going to be the same.
Okay. Even in India operations, also 12-13% would be the applicable rate. What about that?
India will be currently 30%.
Okay. Fine, sir. Okay. That's all. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pat Chah from Tara Capital Partners. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions. One was I had an observation when I compared vision 28 versus vision 29. Capacities for financial year 2026 are almost the same, while the total CAPEX has gone up. Secondly, for financial year 2027, our capacities have increased by about 25%, but our CAPEX has substantially gone up more than 25%, around 40%. If you could explain that.
The CAPEX would depend on which vertical we are going to enter into. The capacity can be increased by brownfield projects, also greenfield projects in the same verticals, or maybe we will come up with a new vertical. For example, steel and paper are more CAPEX intensive. That all should be considered when you look at the total capacities and the CAPEX numbers. The configuration could be different in this year versus in next year. Maybe there are more greenfield projects we are planning to bring in. We are also planning to go into some mergers and acquisitions. Definitely, that is going to probably have higher CAPEX numbers. This depends on what is the configuration of CAPEX that we are planning.
Just a follow-up. In financial year 2026, are we targeting a lot of greenfield CAPEX, and would it be in lead or the newer verticals?
In lead and rubber, we are planning greenfield CAPEX. In plastic, definitely brownfield CAPEX only. In lead, we are planning to put up a plant in Dominican Republic. We are also increasing CAPEX in Romania, which probably is going to be more CAPEX intensive than it is in India. It all depends on which territory or region, geography that you are planning your CAPEX using.
Okay. My second question is on the guidance for the EBITDA per kg for lead. If you could provide guidance for financial year 2026.
Currently, this year, as we've been mentioning, we had certain arbitrage opportunities. The total EBITDA per ton is around INR 20 per kg or INR 20,000 per ton. Our guidance is that on a sustainable basis, we can expect INR 18-19 per kg in lead with a slight improvement of, say, around INR 0.25 or INR 0.5 every year because of better economies of scale and better operational efficiencies that we can expect.
Okay. This is after considering a higher share of domestic sourcing. Am I right?
Yeah. Even including that. Even including that. Because although the profitability is lower, but at the same time, the operational efficiency improves and the capacity increase or capacity utilization will also increase when you have domestic products in place. That will also affect the EBITDA per ton.
Okay. Okay. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for the chance and congratulations on a good set of numbers. The first one is, sir, a question on slide 24, where we are forecasting the formal segment of the lead recycling industry to sharply increase from 40% to 75% in FY2026. Just want to know, is it an expectation of it happening over a few years gradually, or are we expecting something really sharp change in FY2026 itself?
What we believe now that reverse charge mechanism has come in other scrap, we are expecting that to come in this year in lead scrap also, in battery scrap also, which got delayed because of some omission that government omitted by mistake, battery scrap in this. Once that will come into picture, I think the shift over will take faster than we were expecting earlier. We are expecting some fast shift from unorganized to organized. Of course, if that does not come or if that does not have any impact on the actual numbers, then definitely it is going to take maybe two more years for this 75% to come into the organized sector.
Understood. Sir, when do we expect the RCM to get notified from our interaction and engagement with the regulators?
It is expected that next GST Council meeting, this matter should come. That 55th GST Council meeting should be held maybe this month end. The representation are already there. Even with the overwhelming response on other metal scrap, the industry like plastic, and they are also approaching to the ministry, to the Pigment Committee, that those scraps should also come under RCM and TDS. Hopefully, we expect that battery should be part of this next committee meeting.
Understood. Understood. My second question is, with respect to our tolling business, is it possible to share the volumes or mix of tolling as a proportion of our overall India recycling business, number one? Number two, if you look at slide 18, I think for the first time, we've included Exide among our customer list. Can you just apprise us with respect to what sort of development is this and what sort of volumes and business we are doing with Exide?
In terms of numbers from tolling, around 85% of the total volume is coming from tolling itself right now. For Exide, I think I will ask Mr. Vijay Parekh to comment on the.
Yeah. In fact, as in before replies, we are mentioning that it's RCM and BWMR we are focusing on that. Amaradhya, we are also increasing our volumes. Exide, we initiated the developments and trials and everything from January onwards. We are expecting a substantial increase into the volumes. Besides Exide, other OEMs also, we are working with them. The tolling volume will be going to continue. That is why Mr. Yogesh said that the formality into this segment will be there. We are also increasing our capacities in Fagi and Mundra to accommodate the additional quantities of scrap that is going to come from Exide in the next few quarters.
Understood. Sir, all these are, I assume, in the tolling arrangement. Can you just remind us what is.
Mr. Sumanel, may we request you that you return to the question queue for follow-up questions as there are several participants waiting for the next turn?
Sure, sir. I'll do that. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pathanjali Srinivasan from Sundaram Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Just a couple of questions. This rubber acquisition and also domestic expansion that we're doing, what could be the asset turns here from this business, and what would be our targets for the current year?
Generally, the asset turnover that we get is around 8-10 of our total. In rubber, it is going to be almost similar in the same tune of 8-10 times the revenue would come from rubber. Because although the price of rubber is lower or the price of the finished product is lower, the CAPEX increase is also lower. The CAPEX is also lower. It is in the same range of around 8-10. What was your second question?
Could you give me some rough cut? Yes, sir. What could be our target revenue for rubber for the year combined? The domestic plus Romania put together?
It's very difficult because as we are going to put up some pyrolysis plants also domestically, which the production for which is going to be consumed in our own plants, so it's basically for captive consumption. Overall revenue numbers may not reflect in the revenue numbers. Incremental revenue numbers may not reflect in the actual numbers that we'll get from rubber. Currently, we have only this Romania facility where we will be selling the rubber products. Otherwise, which should be close to INR 1,000,000,000-INR 1,250,000,000. Other than that, whatever rubber products we are using, it's for the other recycling internally, like lead recycling and aluminum recycling. Going forward, we will be having a growth of around 70% in next three to four years, CGR growth for rubber products, which we will be selling to third parties.
Sure. Got it, sir. Thank you. Just one last question. This other expenses seems a bit elevated for the quarter. Can you just? Yeah, this is my second question. Yeah. Other expenses seem elevated for the quarter. Could you help me with this? Would it be the recurring rate, or is there any kind of a one-off or something in this?
On an average, it's the same numbers. Nothing is one-off case. It's a recurring case.
Sure. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Lahoti from Emkay. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity again. The inventory cycle has improved in the second half of FY 2025. What has led to this, and do we expect it to sustain?
Yeah. The local procurement has increased. As we were mentioning that once the local procurement stabilizes, then the overall imports in India as a ratio would come down. Currently, in last quarter, 48% of the total scrap that we procured was domestic scrap. Also, because local scrap is more continuous in nature, I mean, as compared to when we import, the capacity utilization is better. All these contributed to improved inventory cycles for us.
We expect it to sustain in the coming year as well?
Yes. Yes.
My second question is if you could remind your EBITDA guidance for aluminum and plastic in case there is any change.
Aluminium also would be around INR 14-15 per kg going forward. For plastic also, it is going to be INR 10-11 per kg, at least for this year. Any improvements in plastic are going to come either in the second half of this year as the EBITDA margin improvement or from next year onwards.
Sure. Thank you, Yogesh.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashish Poddar from Motilal Oswal Institutional Equity. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you. An observation on slide 21, we had mentioned our contribution of value-added products, which improved meaningfully from 42% in FY2022 to 46% in FY2025. During this period, when I see your EBITDA margin, it is a decline from around 10% to around 8-8.5%. Now, over 2025 to 2028, we are expecting this 46% mix to improve further to 50%. In this context, what kind of EBITDA margin are we guiding to reach in FY2028? Thank you.
The EBITDA margins, if you look at it, are on the same line, is around 10.43% compared to 10.47% last year. I think you have to include the operational income also, which comes from hedging. The EBITDA margins are also in the same line. These EBITDA margins can go up a little, up and down, depending on domestic scrap material or how much value-added product we have sold, what is the contribution of overseas versus domestic procurement, all this, and of course, value-added content. Scrap mix makes a lot of difference to the EBITDA margins. As we mentioned, the EBITDA per ton from various commodities, like for lead, it is going to be around INR 18-20. For aluminium, it is going to be around INR 14-15.
In plastic, it is going to be INR 10-11 per kg. Even going forward, you can expect slight increases every year because of better operational efficiencies, more value-added products, and also because of higher capacity utilizations going forward. This is going to be the range.
Okay. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shweta Diksht from Systematix Group. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon. A couple of questions. First, on the global perspective in terms of lead, what's your view how the demand is likely to shape up? Because if you look at the numbers or indicated numbers from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, they say 2025 is likely to be a surplus year in terms of lead. How do we see this demand and capture? How do we see our market share moving in terms of that? Will this have an impact on prices and eventually our EBITDA per ton guidance? Second question is on the standalone side, what would be India operation's net EBITDA per ton for the quarter? That's the second question. Last question is, any comments from your side on the plastic segment performance this quarter?
Since we have continued to guide on our INR 10-11 per kg, but what led to our EBITDA margin decline this quarter, and what can likely help improve it in the subsequent periods?
Yeah. To answer your first question, I think we are a very small player in lead. Even when you say that it is going to be a surplus year for lead going forward, the impact would be majorly on mining of lead, whereas recycling of lead would not change at all. The only impact it would have is the LME prices would go up or down. It does not impact us because the prices of scrap also come down. There is a very minimal impact of any change in the lead prices for a recycling company like us. We do not see major changes in terms of our expansion plans going forward, even when there is a chance of slowdown in the economy because it will majorly impact mining companies and not recycling companies per se.
To answer your second question about EBITDA in India or overseas, I think it's better that you evaluate the company on a consolidated basis only because these numbers would change depending on how much import we have done from our own territories, what is the market price in India compared to what is the global market mix. These things would impact the numbers of India and overseas. These are not, I mean, sometimes you'll see better numbers in India, but the overseas numbers are not doing well. These are not sustainable numbers because you take advantage of arbitrage opportunities every now and then, and that impacts the numbers in standalone basis and overseas or consolidated basis.
If you evaluate the company on a consolidated basis, you'll see that there's a clear EBITDA numbers that you can see, which is around INR 18-19 per kg in terms of lead. In plastic, it has not grown the way we wanted it to grow last year. It was a little difficult because we are developing new products, trying to find new markets for value-added products in plastic, and that is taking longer than what we expected. We are very confident that by H1 this year, you will see positive changes in both revenue numbers as well as profitability in plastic.
Thank you, sir. Just to follow up to that question, when we say arbitrage opportunities in the domestic or Indian business, do we talk about cheaper raw material, or are we trying to say that better realizations in India kind of help us sustain the EBITDA margin if at all there is some arbitrage?
Both things. Both things. On one side, the Indian market does not follow the global market. Sometimes there are times when the Indian market is better than the overseas market. During those times, you bring in your material from your overseas subsidiaries into India. That is one way the Indian overall EBITDA numbers would increase. The other is it all depends on where we have better realization, even when the market prices are the same. Because there are more value-added products that we can sell. If there are more value-added products that we can sell in India, getting better realization, during those times also, we divert our material into India, even though the market prices are the same. Vice versa also. That will change the, I mean, the metrics, whether standalone is better or whether overseas plants give you better profitability.
Understood. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. This was the last question for the day. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you, everyone, for participating in this call. We trust that we have addressed all your queries during this session. However, if there are any remaining questions, please feel free to reach out to our investor relations team. Once again, we extend our gratitude to all the participants for joining us today. Thank you, and have a great day.
Thank you. On behalf of Antique Stock Broking Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect the lines.