Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Gujarat Gas Limited's Q2 FY25 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participants' lines will be in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to the Company Secretary of Gujarat Gas, Mr. Sandeep Dave. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Good evening, everyone. A very warm welcome to Q2 earnings call of Gujarat Gas Limited. I'm Sandeep Dave, Company Secretary and Head of Corporate Communication Department at GGL. Just to give an update, since our last call on 30th August 2024, we have announced a scheme of arrangement among GSPC Group of companies. The proposed scheme will eliminate the layered structure of GSPC Group, promote business synergies, and unlock value for its stakeholders. The scheme is subject to various statutory and regulatory approvals. We have filed the scheme with BSE and NSE, and we expect to get clearance from Stock Exchanges during November 2024, followed by submission of the scheme with SEBI. After obtaining SEBI clearance, the scheme will be filed with MCA. Coming back to GGL, to give a brief background about GGL, GGL is the largest city gas distribution company in India.
GGL is operating in 27 geographical areas spread across six states and one union territory. We have a good mix of mature and emerging CGD areas. We have developed a pipeline network of more than 41,700 km, which provides natural gas to close to 22 lakh households, 4,410 industrial customers, and 15,470 commercial customers. We also operate 820 CNG stations, serving approximately 4 lakh vehicles per day. GGL aims to deliver affordable, reliable, and cleaner energy by operating responsibly and performing with excellence while considering environmental, social, and governance. As part of our commitment to ESG initiatives, we have taken various measures, which include the hydrogen blending pilot project, which we have completed with 8% blending recently. Now, we are planning to increase blending levels after obtaining necessary regulatory approvals.
We are aggressively setting up CNG infrastructure as well as upgrading CNG infrastructure to promote the use of clean and green fuel. We have also started injecting biogas into the GGL system. We have embarked on major digitization drives across various business operations and processes. Our major contribution to the environment is by virtue of promoting the use of gas for industrial customers in Q2. We have reduced the burning of approximately 14,482 metric tons of coal per day. Further, through our CNG sales on various outlets, we have reduced the combustion of approximately 2,924 kiloliters of petrol per day during this Q2. At Gujarat Gas, we have the two highest standards of safety and a strong culture of safety. GGL is an ISO-certified organization for integrated quality, occupational health, safety, and environment management systems.
We build, operate, and maintain a safe and reliable gas network in our areas of operation. With this brief background on GGL, I now request Mr. Dipen Chauhan to share business updates. Over to you, Dipen.
Thank you very much, Sandeep. Good evening, everyone. First, I'll update on the domestic and commercial segment. We are seeing a positive growth in the domestic segment. Gujarat Gas's customer base is now more than 21.90 lakh domestic customers. Despite the monsoon season, where construction is a bit challenging, GGL has still managed to maintain the growth rate and has been able to add 0.4 lakh customers in the current quarter. The commercial segment is showing a steady growth in connection members. We expect the numbers in the domestic and commercial segment to increase over a period of time as the new areas mature. GGL, at present, has a customer base of 15,400 commissioned commercial customers across its GAs. Now, let me update on the industrial segment.
In the industrial segment, sales volume was 4.91 MMSCMD for the quarter ended 30th September 2024, whereas the sales volume during the same period in the previous financial year was 5.86 MMSCMD. The average Morbi volume during the quarter was 2.86 MMSCMD, and non-Morbi volume was 2.05 MMSCMD. As stated during the last call, the Morbi volume was expected to be lower due to the Janmashtami festival in August. Additionally, the ceramic market was also adversely affected by the geopolitical factors, which led to overall reduction in capacity utilization. The non-Morbi volume of 2.05 MMSCMD for the quarter ended 30th September 2024 has grown from 1.9 MMSCMD during the same period in the previous financial year. During the quarter, we had to increase the industrial prices by approximately ₹2 per SCM. The increase was mainly on account of a significant increase in LNG prices.
The spot LNG prices were around $9.50 per MMBTU in April 2024, and the current price is approximately $13 per MMBTU. Further, the prices under the LT contract were also impacted due to the lagging effect of higher crude prices. We continue to monitor the price movements of LNG and alternate fuels across all our operating areas. In Q3, there may be some impact on non-Morbi sales due to Diwali festival. However, we are hopeful that volume will recover during Q3 FY25. Finally, let me update on the CNG segment. In Q2 FY25, CNG sales in Gujarat increased by 12% year-over-year, while outside Gujarat, sales surged by 25% year-on-year basis. Overall, CNG sales across the region grew by 12% annually. CNG maintains significant price advantages, being approximately 47% cheaper than petrol and 15% cheaper than diesel. During this quarter, we have added nine new CNG stations, enhancing accessibility.
Overall, we have achieved CNG sales volume of 2.93 MMSCMD in this quarter. This performance underscores a positive investment outlook driven by increasing consumer adoption and strategic infrastructure development, positioning CNG favorably in the energy market. Now, I would like to request our CFO, Rajesh Sivadasan, to take this introduction forward. Mr. Rajesh.
Thanks, Dipen. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Rajesh Sivadasan, Chief Financial Officer and the Head of Investor Relations at Gujarat Gas Limited. At the outset, on behalf of the entire team of Gujarat Gas, let me wish you a very happy Diwali and a prosperous New Year. I welcome you all to the earnings call of Gujarat Gas Limited for the second quarter for the financial year 2024-2025. I'd like to thank all of you for attending this call today. I trust you have gone through the financial results of the quarter ended 30th September 2024, along with the initial presentation, which you have uploaded on 6th of November 2024. We believe that expanding geographical coverage and expansion of the gas network would eventually lead to an increase in volumes and profitability.
As a result, we have been able to grow CNG volumes at 12% from 2.62 MMSCMD in the corresponding quarter of financial year 2023-24 to 2.93 MMSCMD in the second quarter of financial year 2024-25. The volume of the company for the quarter ended 30th September stood at around 8.75 MMSCMD compared to 9.32 MMSCMD in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. During the quarter, the company connected close to 38,500 new domestic customers, making the PNG domestic connections of more than 21,991,000 domestic customers. During the quarter, the company invested close to 130 crores into the gas infrastructure, aggregating to ₹330 crores up to the half year of this financial year. The company is presently having a PE and MS steel network of more than 41,700 kilometers, along with close to 820 CNG stations, which is a key driver for our growth going forward.
In terms of revenue, the company has registered a revenue from operations of INR 3,949 crores during the second quarter, against INR 3,991 crores for the corresponding quarter in the previous year. The company reported a profit after tax of INR 415 crores during the second quarter of this financial year 2024-25, compared to INR 415 crores in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, an increase of approximately 3%. The EBITDA for the second quarter stands at around INR 553 crores as compared to INR 526 crores in the corresponding quarter, an increase of close to 5%. In terms of EBITDA per SCMD, it stands at close to INR 6.86, against INR 6.14 in the previous quarter of the previous year.
We are closely monitoring the propane future trajectory, and in the near term, we are accordingly sticking to our strategy to calibrate and strike a balance between the volumes and the margins going forward. Further, our focus on digital wave. We are happy to state that more than 98% of our collections are coming through digital mode, for which we would like to thank our customers. After the recent corporate announcement, Gujarat Gas continues to have a credit rating of AAA stable and a short-term rating of A1 plus, which has been reaffirmed by CARE and India Ratings. CRISIL has maintained the AAA rating and is under the developing watch category. We have uploaded the investor presentation on the GGL website. Hope you have gone through the same. With this, we open the floor for the Q&A session.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Probal Sen from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. Good evening, sir. Just with respect to the CNG segment, you mentioned about Gujarat growth being at 12%, outside Gujarat being at 25%. Is it possible to therefore get a mix of volumes as of now? In terms of our overall volumes, how much is coming from Gujarat and how much from outside?
Generally, in percentage-wise, 87% is coming from Gujarat and 13% is coming from outside Gujarat.
Got it, sir. That's very helpful. The second question was, sir, that in terms of Q3, have we seen any uptick in terms of Morbi volumes? And if so, is it possible to share a rough number in terms of what the range is as of now?
I think in Q3, we are looking at a growth of around the volume should be around 3.5-4.
3.5-4 from Morbi, right, sir?
Yes.
Okay. Okay. And the third question was, sir, with respect to the APM gas reallocation, we have taken a price increase in the industrial segment, but just wanted to get a sense that given the kind of growth we are seeing in CNG and the differential that is there, are we looking right now at a price increase to pass through? I mean, what is the blended percentage of priority gas we are getting right now for the CNG and domestic segment?
So, for the quarter ended September 2024, we were getting, I mean, the shortfall was approximately 12%, which was being fulfilled through spot. And after that, there has been a further reduction in APM gas. The reduction is now approximately 50%. We have basically been able to get a good chunk of new well gas, as they call it. And so the entire reduction has been compensated by the new well gas that we have been able to get.
New well meaning for the HPHT price-based gas, so at around $10?
New well gas is basically the APM gas without any cap. APM gas price without any cap. APM gas price is basically 10% of crude with a cap of $65 per barrel. That's how it has come into $6.5. Now, the new well gas is basically 20% premium without the $65 cap. It's basically 10% of crude.
Okay. Effectively, then it is about 12% of crude. So that is what we are getting to compensate for the shortfall.
Correct.
So are we looking at a price increase therefore to pass on this additional cost, sir? That's why any color you can give on the thought process.
Yeah, we are evaluating options to increase the CNG prices in the near future to basically offset the increased cost of gas procurement.
One last question, if I may, sir. The CapEx run rate seems to be a bit lower, at least for H1, than our earlier annual guidance. So are we still hoping to sort of manage around INR 800-900 crore kind of CapEx annualized, or are we looking to be a little bit short of that this year?
No, no. We'll be capping around 800,000.
Okay. Thank you very much for your time, sir. I'll come back if I have more questions. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead. Mr. Amit, I would request you to unmute your line.
Yes, yes. Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Yeah, so the first question is on Morbi. What would be the total Morbi market size now in terms of the overall potential volume that can be done from there? Earlier, I remember it used to be getting closer to 10 MMSCMD.
The market size would be around 7.5-8 MMSCMD, and right now, I think because of various issues in the Middle East and all, I think the consumption would be close to 6.5 MMSCMD, including propane consumption.
Okay. Okay. And you're saying that current run rate is about 3.5 out of that?
Correct.
Okay. Sure. Got it. And I didn't get the question on the data point on the APM proportion. Did you say that 88% was APM for you in Q2?
It was 26% shortfall there.
Okay. 74% was APM, which is now 50%.
Yeah. Right.
Okay. Got it. And lastly, could you provide the GSPC results also for Q2 or H1?
We have to go to the board of GSPC.
Oh, okay. Sure. I'll come back in the Q2.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Yogesh Patil from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question. Sir, the company reported a sequential decline in the CNG volume. Is it mainly because of CNG price hike in the month of August or some other reason of volume fall?
I think the volume decline is because of the monsoon which was there.
Okay. And, sir, could you please provide the volume guidance for the PNG industrial FY 2025-26?
PNG industrial volume?
Yeah.
I think we are seeing, ultimately, there is a competition between propane and natural gas. As for the present prices of propane and natural gas, we are looking at a volume of up to from 3.5 to 4. That is the MMSCMD we are looking at Morbi. So based on the propane prices going forward, the volumes will keep on fluctuating.
Okay. Sir, could you please also share the gas sourcing details for the PNG industrial and the commercial? And if you could provide us that the spot LNG blending during the quarter and the average prices of spot LNG you have procured during the quarter?
Yeah. You are talking about the spot LNG which we have procured?
Sir, question is related to gas sourcing overall for the PNG industrial and the commercial side. If you could share the details on that side, current basis. And what was the portion of spot LNG blending during the Q2 FY 25 and average prices of spot LNG you have procured during the quarter segment?
Yeah. I will tell you the overall picture. That is basically we procured the volume was close to 8.9 MMSCMD was there. Of that, close to the APM was close to 31%. And the long-term which we have, that's close to 35%. And the spot LNG was close to 34%. So if you look at the average price of spot, that's around ₹37.4 per SCM. That's the average price which we had.
Okay. Okay. And sir, as per our understanding, you have one LNG supply contract from the BG side, British Gas. And that is around 2-2.5 MMSCMD, which is expected to expire in the next few months or the quarter. What is the update on that side? Are we going to renew these contracts or any other LNG sourcing arrangement for that side?
So that LNG contract will expire somewhere in the middle of 2025. And we are right now in discussions for a new LNG contract to replace those volumes.
Okay. Thanks. Thanks a lot, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Varatharajan from Antique Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity, sir. Can you give us the current gas price versus propane price at Morbi? What is that you are charging, and what is the comparable price for propane?
The current price of propane is close to INR 43.6. The price of gas is close to INR 44.7.
Okay. And what is the proportion of propane-linked contract volume these days, [audio distortion]? And how much of contracts have been signed in terms of volume?
We have not signed any contracts. We don't have any propane-linked contracts. It's only oil-linked contracts that we have right now.
Okay. Because I remember you were highlighting incrementally for Morbi customers you are trying to roll out propane-linked contracts.
We tried that. However, that is, I mean, we are still in discussion with suppliers for offering propane-linked volumes so that we can sell it on a back-to-back basis to Morbi customers.
Okay, so as of now, we are not doing any volume.
Sorry?
As of now, we are not doing any volume, which is propane-linked.
No. It's a discussion stage only.
Yeah. Thanks. And finally, sir, on the price increase which you said you had done for INR 2, when was that effective? Was it only in the current month, or was it done in the previous month?
No, it was the old one. I think it was in July.
It was in July. Subsequently, you're not raising any prices?
No, no. Subsequently, we are not raising.
Fair enough, sir. Thanks a lot. I'll come back to that.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Maulik Patel from Equirus Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Two questions. One on this BG contract, which will expire in the middle of 2025, and a new contract which you would like to sign. I mean, will there be a time gap between these two contracts?
No, there will be no time gap.
Okay. And the one which you intend to sign, it's in Henry Hub based, right?
Pardon? Henry Hub. So we are exploring opportunities. I think what you are referring to is the publication, the news that has been published, that is pertaining to GSPC. But we are in discussions with various suppliers for volumes linked to various indices, including Henry Hub and oil.
Okay, so currently, you are getting approximately 2.5 million with the BG contract, right? That will entirely be replaced, and by that time, you will have a new contract?
Yes.
Okay. Second question is on that discussion that there is going to be significant cash flow generation for the merged entity, both GSPC trading business and CGD business of Gujarat Gas. So has there any plan or strategies been formed where to deploy this operating cash flow going forward? Because earlier, JB has mentioned that there will be some thought about diversifying into the renewables, hydrogen, and others.
Yeah. We are evaluating all the options. All the options are open to us. So we will come back to you with that around an appropriate time, what decisions we are going to take.
Okay. And just last question on that recent APM gas cut. What's your thought process that because APM allocations to the CNG, which was almost 100% two to three years back, has now cut down to 50% in a few quarters, right? Will it go to zero in the next three to four years? Is that what you think about that government will reduce further APM gas allocation? And the CNG has to compete with the petrol or diesel and the market-driven gas prices?
So that's what we hear from the market, that APM gas would gradually be replaced by maybe new well gas, as they call it. So basically, gradually, there will be a gradual abolishment of or there will be gradual reduction of APM gas. And that gas would ultimately be replaced by new well gas. Basically, it's a price thing. So gas would be available, but probably at a more market-linked price going forward.
Essentially, there will be an APM which you get it at $6.5, which is at GCV, right? And this one will be at $9.5 also at GCV, or it's an NCV? New gas wells from the ONGC?
All at GCV.
All at GCV. So essentially, you will have a $3 increase in the price for whatever the 65% of the APM gas allocation which you had in the previous quarter or 75% in the previous quarter. On that, you will have an approximately $2 kind of increase on a blended basis.
That is $2 you are calculating based on the current crude levels. The crude levels, or crude prices, can basically fall. If we are to go by the reports of various agencies, international agencies, crude could actually go below $70. So if that happens, the differential will not be that much.
So currently, it's $9.80 of the changing brand basket, approximately. It's $9.6 of the new well gas is around 12% of the oil price, right?
12% of oil, yes.
Okay. Okay. Great. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kirtan Mehta from BOB Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Mr. Kirtan, I would request you to unmute your line and speak, please. Due to no response from the current participant, we will move on to the next participant. The next question is from the line of Tarang from Old Bridge Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Two questions from my side. The first is basically on GSPC. Once the results are published or discussed with the board, are they going to be published from here on?
No. See, ultimately, until the merger is happening, each company will be functioning independently.
Okay.
So GSPC is not listed today.
Okay. But the reason why I ask is because of the structure of the scheme now, it indirectly also leads to an exposure in GSPC, correct? Assuming that the scheme will be consummated.
I think it's unfair on our part to comment on what GSPC will do. I think GSPC will be cognizant of the fact that it's being tracked by a lot of listed analysts and investors. So the board will take appropriate call on this.
Okay. Second question, sir, was hello?
Yeah. We can hear you. Yeah. We can hear you.
So we lost the connection of the current participant. The next question is from the line of Sabri from Emkay Global Financial Services. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, sir. So this CNG outstation addition, so this includes this FDODO scheme or it's like normal increase?
This is a normal addition. FDODO stations will be commissioned, I think, in the third, maximum the fourth quarter of this year.
Next quarter. Fourth quarter of this financial year, right?
This financial year.
Okay. Fair enough. And secondly, Morbi volumes, you said 2.86 MMSCMD. Is that right?
Yes, please.
Okay, sir. Okay. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of S. Ramesh from Nirmal Bang Equities. Please go ahead.
Thank you and good evening. So when you talk about increasing the Morbi volumes from 2.86 to 3.5 to 4, is there an increase in the overall energy consumption, including propane, or are you able to increase your market share based on the current price differential of that whatever ₹1.1 premium for PNG? How is it working now in this quarter, third quarter?
It's clearly based on the premium difference which is there.
So now, in terms of the market share, so what was the energy consumption, including propane, in second quarter? And what is the current run rate on which you are expecting the Morbi sales to go up from 2.86 to 3.5 or 4?
Last quarter, we understand Morbi market total consumption was gas equivalent of almost 6.8-7 million. We expect to gain a share out of propane-consuming customers.
So how do you plan to achieve that? How did it happen? Because you have not changed the price. So has the LPG price or propane price gone up? Why are customers shifting to PNG, if I may ask?
So propane prices have actually gone up. The differential is now INR 1-INR 1.5 per SCM.
So are you saying propane prices have gone up from 43.6 to higher than your PNG price?
No. The propane prices to gas prices are now at a premium of only INR 1.5 per SCM. Next month, also, the propane prices are expected to go up.
Okay. So you mentioned 43.6 for propane and 44.7 for PNG. What was it in the second quarter?
Second quarter, it was 44 and it was close to 44 and 41. The gas prices were close to 44, and the propane prices were close to 41.
Okay. So your INR 3 premium has come down to INR 1.1-INR 1.6.
Yeah. Yeah.
Okay. So as of date, you are seeing this sort of conversion, and you are able to see this run rate, right? It's 3.5.
Yeah. Yeah.
So how do you see now what happens when your propane and LPG market kind of enters a weak season, say, from April? What will be your strategy there when you see the propane and LPG prices go down? How do you plan to maintain your volumes?
No. See, we have to have a fine balance between the margins which I make and the volumes which I need to get. So that has been our strategy for the last few years. We are going with that same thing.
Okay. So if you look at your EBITDA per SCM, you've been able to pass on the cost, but your Morbi volumes are down. So where has the incremental growth in per SCM EBITDA come from? Is it because of the growth in CNG? Can you explain that?
See, I think if you look at the last few years, the growth of CNG and the domestic has increased in our portfolio. From close to less than 20%, it is more than now 40%. So that's like playing a part in our margins going forward.
Okay. So if you look at your growth outside Gujarat, how do you see the share of the sales outside Gujarat overall and that of CNG moving? You said 13% of CNG is outside Gujarat, right? So how would that be, say, the next 1-2 years? And in terms of the overall share of the GAs outside Gujarat or the new GAs, what would be the share of those GAs on the overall volumes?
Yeah. I think the ecosystem with respect to gas is being developed over there, so gradually, this growth which you are seeing in Gujarat, they're definitely going to happen over there, so in terms of volume, see, ultimately, the infrastructure has to be in place before the volumes jump up. So basically, I think we are in the right place to go and put up the infrastructure, including the pipeline and the CNG stations over there, and now we are focusing on conversions, etc., over there.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants, please limit your question to two per participant. If you have a follow-up question, I would request you to rejoin the queue. The next question is from the line of Hardik Solanki from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. My question is already answered.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sanjay Kumar from ithoughtpms . Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. So this is my first time on the call. So just a basic question. PNGRB issued a notice of classifying 20 GAs as common contract carriers. Is this a new development? And there was a committee meeting on November 4th, and there's one more scheduled on November 20th. What can be the impact for us on these 20 GAs?
PNGRB has issued the first regulation for declaring common carrier in 2020. In January 2021, we approached Delhi High Court and obtained a stay order. The stay order, the interim protection order, was continued until recently, till the time PNGRB came up with the 2024 regulation. So the 2024 regulation probably was one of the ways of getting out of the stay order, favorable order, which Gujarat Gas has obtained. What we have done as GGL management is we immediately moved Delhi High Court again and obtained a protection order, a favorable order from Delhi High Court. So this prevents PNGRB from taking any coercive action against GGL. So as of now, this order we obtained on July 2024, the same is continuing. So we do not expect what PNGRB is currently doing is more of a consultative process, but they cannot take any coercive action against GGL management.
GGL, to their extent, is protected from open access review.
Okay, and roughly, what would be the volume from these 20 GAs?
It will be difficult to comment on that because we have not thought it through. We believe that we have made out a good case in Delhi High Court, and these open access regulations are a little premature, and we will deal with it as and when it comes.
All right. Thank you, sir. And second question on the APM gas allocation cut of 20%. So any revision in EBITDA margin guidance? I think you had given 4.5%-5.5%. Now we are already at, I think, close to 6%. So any new margin guidance for second half of FY25 and FY26?
I think our EBITDA margins would be in the range of 5%-6% now, going forward.
Okay. That's it from my side, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mayank Maheshwari from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Sir, so my first question was more regarding LNG trucking. You did mention a few earlier calls about it. A lot of your peers have talked about it as well. Can we just get an update from you on what's going on from your side on [audio distortion] ?
We are already supplying LCNG at four of our stations where we are converting LNG into CNG and supplying to the customer. So we are in the process of setting up a dispenser at these four stations. So we can start the LNG dispensing also at these stations. Apart from that, we are in the process of surveying all our routes, basically, which are connected to the major ports in Gujarat and the expressway, which are coming up in and around Gujarat. So it looks like we will be in this business very soon.
Got it, sir. And I think the second question is more related to the industrial customers and reach. You had earlier talked about Vapi, Valsad, and the ability to kind of grow your customer base there and diversify your volume away from Morbi. Any thought process because your absolute numbers of customers, if you look at the charts you're showing, have been not growing that much still. So what's been the reason for a slower growth around that strategy?
So basically, we are targeting new markets in Ahmedabad Rural, Silvassa, Dahej, and Surat, Ankleshwar, Bharuch, which are basically the older markets. We are basically in touch with all the consumers. And I think we are flowing close to two million volumes in Surat, Ankleshwar, Bharuch, and Vapi, Valsad markets. And we expect these volumes to grow substantially in the next few years. I think these areas have a potential to increase to almost three to 3.5 million. We are putting up networks in Ahmedabad rural and Dahej and Silvassa. I think in times to come, maybe those volumes can grow substantially from the current level of two million.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kirtan Mehta from BOB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. In terms of the FDODO scheme that we have rolled out, could you talk us through the specific progress that they are seeing in implementation of this FDODO scheme? What kind of orders for the equipment have been placed? What kind of APMs?
We have issued nearly 400 LOIs, out of which 125 have been accepted by the applicants. And apart from that, they have already submitted the bank guarantee of INR 10 lakhs from those 125 locations. The way things are going, I think we will start, or the action will start sometime in the first week or maximum second week of December for the construction of the stations.
And how do we see the ramp-up of this station? I mean, how many stations by what time frame?
Time frame generally is per our agreement or terms and conditions of the franchisee agreement. I think the applicant has to complete the station within one year. And with the proper support and handholding from the company, I think we'll manage to achieve that.
Are there also any conditions on the volume ramp-up under the agreement?
No.
Right. The second question was about the new industrial areas that we are developing: Ahmedabad rural, Silvassa, and others. Could you share the infrastructure pipeline implementation targets for this year and next year in those areas? And how much of CapEx we are committing to those geographic areas to develop the network?
I think our major CapEx, which is going into the steel and the stations are with respect to these places only. Ahmedabad Rural , I think of the nine stations which we implemented three stations are in these areas. Even Thane, etc., also the new stations which are coming in have come in the areas which have been mentioned.
So is this mainly targeting the sort of CNG and industrial together in the same area, or are we focusing to get more industrial? And are we focusing on particular areas for more industrial volume?
It's a combination of two because when the steel pipeline is put in, basically, we also ensure that the CNG stations are online. So basically, then only we get the maximum benefit of it.
Right, sir. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Somaiah from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity, sir. A few clarifications. So one, in terms of EBITDA outlook, so you have mentioned ₹5-₹6. There is ₹4.5-₹5.5 earlier. Just want to understand your thought process. So is it because of higher share of CNG mix? We expect this to be slightly higher compared to earlier periods? Or any other drivers that you are thinking of that will help us?
The advantage? CNG is definitely there because we are growing at close to 12% in CNG. And the other thing is basically the portfolio of gas which we are sourcing. That is also giving us a benefit advantage to the rest of the people over here. So basically, that will help us in terms of aggregating the industrial volumes as well as getting better margins from CNG.
Okay, sir. So also, in terms of your long-term contracts, you did mention about the BG. So the other two contracts, which are the ones, and what is the quantum and what is the term period for that?
So the other contract is similar to the BG contract, and it is also valid till middle of 2025. So that is close to one million. And the other one, the third one is basically the domestic gas from Reliance BP fields in Kakinada. And that is valid till December end 2024.
Got it, sir. So now you had mentioned about thinking you're working on replacing the BG volumes. So is it the same for the other two contracts as well?
That's right.
Got it, sir. So generally, your preference would be, given that these are oil-linked, so you would try to replace it with an oil-linked, or you will prefer taking a Henry Hub exposure this time around?
It's going to be primarily oil because it competes well with propane. That is, again, oil-linked product. But we would have some share of Henry Hub as well. As Henry Hub prices are not very volatile, and it provides a good amount of stability as far as pricing is concerned.
This time around, will we try to increase the quantum? This 2.5 plus 1 plus 0.7 leaves it 4.2. When we are coming up with the new contracts, so will we try for a higher quantum, or will we try and maintain the same 4.1 CNG?
No, the effort would be to convert as much as Morbi demand as possible, so if the prices that we get from the market are good enough to compete with propane, we would basically go for a higher quantity.
Understood, sir. So also, you mentioned last quarter, roughly around 30% you sourced of your total volumes, 9 MMSCMD, from these long-term contracts, which comes to around 2.5. Given that you have a 4.0 MMSCMD, so it's a conscious choice because your pricing compared to spot was on the higher side. You probably chose more spot last quarter. That's how we should read it.
Yeah, the spot was lower than the long-term, so that's the reason.
Understood, sir. So also, you gave a spot LNG price around $33 USD last quarter. What is it currently?
The spot? I think last quarter, it was close to 34, 35.
And currently?
Currently, it would be around 42. It's 42, close to 42.
Understood, sir. So also, would it be possible in terms of these long-term contracts, these volumes? I mean, who would we be procuring it from? Which entities? As a marketer, who would be transferring these volumes to us? Between GAIL and GSPC?
So generally, we buy from GSPC as we get the flexibilities in the sense that there is a variation in demand, and GSPC is a better place to either divert those volumes or provide additional volumes whenever required. So basically, we would be sourcing these volumes from GSPC. And if there is an opportunity to source domestic volumes, then probably depending on the terms and conditions of domestic gas being offered, Gujarat Gas can source it directly as well.
So are existing long-term contracts also the spot procurement that we have been making is by and large via GSPC? Is that the right understanding?
That's right.
Going forward also, after this renewal or new contracts coming in, it will be via GSPC?
Yes. And anyway, both are going to be single entities after some time.
Got it, sir. Helpful, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vikas Jain from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thanks for taking my questions. I just want to understand this bit that since the premium has become lesser versus propane, why will customers really shift? Propane is still at a discount. Is there an extra handling cost which makes the effective cost of propane more expensive than PNG? I mean, I realize that it has become less. The discount has become lesser. But that itself should not change someone who's using propane to move to natural gas. So what am I missing over here? If I can understand that, please.
When the customer procures propane, they have to pay in advance for the propane cost. Whereas in case of gas, they get a credit of close to 20 days. That is one thing. The other thing is that logistics involved in transporting propane from maybe the port up to their plant. The third thing is that they have to incur additional cost for loading and unloading of propane. And there is an additional element of risk which is already there once you handle a product for which there are different kinds of risks involved in handling propane and all. And especially during monsoons, because of waterlogging and all, it becomes difficult to handle propane. These are some of the reasons why whenever the differential is less, people tend to shift to gas rather than propane.
So basically, what you're saying is that while the price of gas that you are talking about is landed to the customer's facility, the price of propane is not exactly what you're comparing with, is not landed to him. It's basically at the port. So landed price will be higher. And therefore, effectively, on a landed basis, at this price for certain customers, it might become more—I mean, CNG might become more attractive.
And there are many customers who know where the cost of making advance payment is more. And they would generally like to take advantage of reduced working capital because of credit which is there in gas.
Sure. That's about a % for a lot of people, roughly. I mean, less than a %, yeah. So the other thing was, so you did raise your guidance on margins about volume growth, say, I mean, for this year and next year. I mean, where do you expect that you're going to average for this year? I'm not asking an exit rate because there is an element of seasonality in your volumes, which is pretty clear. But on an average, where do you see FY25 ending just as compared to your overall volume of 9.35 MMSCMD and FY24? And then what is the kind of growth that we should take in on a YOY basis for 2026 and 2027? Any guidance over there, please?
I think there are two, three elements. As you told, there are two, three elements which practically play a part in our volumes, especially the industrial volumes which we have. So basically, there is a fluctuation which happens on a seasonal basis, as well as the price of the propane, etc., plays a role. So basically, I think we cannot tell you clearly how much the volumes would be, but it will be around the same range. I think last time also, we gave a guidance of around 5%-7%. We stick to that guidance, subject to the price volatility and demand increase which is going to happen based on that.
Okay. So I mean, YOY guidance would remain around 5%-7% on an overall basis. And the recent changes of this, basically, your raw material cost becoming more expensive for CNG and residential PNG, that would obviously have an impact till you decide on price action for the third quarter margins, right?
Yeah, you're right.
Because that's pretty significant for the time being.
Yeah.
Okay. And you hope to kind of pass that on largely? I mean, why I'm asking is, in your opening remarks, you mentioned that CNG is at a 15% discount to diesel. So do you see that you have room to pass on a large part of the price hike on CNG? I mean, wouldn't the discount fall to very low levels and would not—isn't there a worry that that will impact volume conversions?
I don't think so because we have a huge headroom in petrol. Compared to petrol, we are 47% cheaper. And from the experience, we can say that most of the customers who are converting to CNG are petrol users.
Okay. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, you may press star and one to ask a question. A reminder to all the participants, you may press star and one to ask a question. The next follow-up question is from the line of Tarang from Old Bridge Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you again. I'm sorry I got dropped off. So just one request and a couple of clarifications. The request is as a minority vote, GGL and GSPL pursuant to the announcement of scheme, one has an indirect exposure on GSPC till officially it gets consummated. So if you could reconsider publishing GSPC's financials or at least critical information at regular intervals, it would be helpful. The second, two clarifications. The shortfall that was witnessed in APM sourcing, was it met with new well gas or was it met with spot purchases?
It was a combination of both the things. These are HPHT gas as well as spot. So basically, we had procured some HPHT gas as well as in the last round in October, we procured new well gas as well. Since we got the news that the APM gas is going to be curtailed, so we could manage a good share of new well gas as well. So partly, it has been met through HPHT and new well gas and some spot gas.
Your first question is GSPC management is cognizant of the fact that investors are curious to know about performance of GSPC and track it on a regular basis. So they will take a conscious call on that and will keep investors informed about major events. I'll also put up the request to GSPC management.
Thank you. And so, last question, what is the characteristic value on a per SCM basis? Is it 10,000 kcal or 8,350 or something else?
Could you repeat the question?
The 9,200.
9,200. Great. Okay. Perfect. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Yogesh Patil from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for giving me an opportunity again. Sir, as you mentioned, the spot LNG cost of INR 37 per SCM for the quarter second FY25. And now the cost of spot LNG is INR 42 per SCM. Do we have any plans to pass on the gas cost to the PNG industrial customers in the near term? Because the PNG industrial sales volume also increased due to the improvement in the Morbi side. So any plans?
I think we will take an appropriate call based on the volume increase and the incremental volumes which we get by the reduction in the prices or increase in the prices. That's the call which we will be taking going forward.
Okay. Thank you a lot, sir.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, you may press star and one to ask a question. A reminder to all the participants, you may press star and one to ask a question. Ladies and gentlemen, you may press star and one to ask a question. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Sandeep Dave, Company Secretary, for closing comments.
GSPC management has been focusing on increasing volumes while maintaining a fine balance between volumes and margin, and we will continue to do so. The festive time has just ended in Gujarat, and I wish all of you a very happy, healthy, and blissful New Year. Thank you.
On behalf of Gujarat Gas Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your line.