Ladies and gentlemen, you are connected to Happy Forgings Limited conference. Please stay connected. This conference will begin shortly. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Q3 and nine-month FY2026 Earnings Conference Call of Happy Forgings Limited. This conference call may contain forward-looking statements about the company, which are based on the beliefs, opinions, and expectations of the company as on date of this call. The statements are not the guarantees of future performance and involve risk and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ashish Garg, Managing Director, Happy Forgings Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for the Q 3 FY26 earnings call of Happy Forgings Limited. Along with me, I have Mr. Pankaj Kumar Goyal, our CFO, and Strategic Growth Advisors, our Investor Relations Advisors. I trust everyone had the opportunity to review the Q 3 and nine-month FY26 financial results and investor presentations, which are now available on the exchanges. I'm delighted to share that we continued with a strong growth trajectory in the third quarter and nine months of fiscal year 2026, delivered a robust operating and financial performance. In Q 3 and nine months FY26, the revenues continued to scale up, and profitability showed a clear improving trend.
We have successfully navigated a period marked by softening steel prices, a challenging macro environment including weak global demand, and geopolitical events while maintaining a positive growth momentum, improving profitability, and further strengthening our balance sheet. Importantly, during this period, we have invested meaningfully to build capacity and lay the foundation for future growth, and we have done so without straining the balance sheet. This was enabled by our robust business model, efficient working capital management resulting in strong cash generation, allowing us to fund growth initiatives while preserving financial strength and flexibility. For the third quarter, the company delivered an all-time high performance across revenue from operations, gross profit, EBITDA, and PAT, and we achieved the highest-ever EBITDA/PAT margin during the quarter. Profitability growth outpaced the revenue growth, with PAT increasing to 22.3% year-on-year.
This was driven by robust value, value-add as reflected in higher gross margin and operational efficiencies. For the nine-month period, revenue touched INR 1,122 crore with a PAT of INR 218 crore, demonstrating a resilient and consistent performance given the macro environment. Importantly, the sequential improvement witnessed in Q3 over Q2 reinforces the growth momentum in the business, and if this trend continues in Q4, it positions us well for a strong close in FY 2026. On the margins front, I would like to highlight that our EBITDA margins reached a new high of 30.8% in the quarter and for the nine-month period crossed 30%. While this represents a meaningful improvement over last year, margins can vary from quarter to quarter as raw material prices, capacity addition, and business mix evolve. Our focus remains on maintaining EBITDA margins with a sustained range between 29%-31% over the medium term.
Coming to our operational performance in Q3, we recorded a healthy year-over-year volume growth of approximately 14% driven by a strong uptick across domestic CV, farm, and industrial segments, as well as the passenger vehicle segment overall contributed meaningfully. Realizations remain broadly stable and range-bound even as raw material prices softened during this period. Going forward, as higher value-added segments scale up, we expect realizations to improve. From a geographic perspective, domestic business delivered strong mid-teens year-over-year growth during the quarter, driven by healthy demand across our core segments, especially commercial vehicle farm equipment. Direct exports remained subdued during the quarter, reflecting both ongoing weakness in certain end markets and tariff-related uncertainties.
In addition, changes in Inco terms for select customers during the period resulted in a reclassification of certain revenues from direct exports to deemed and indirect export categories, which also contributed to the apparent decline in direct exports share. However, when viewed on a broader and more meaningful basis by combining direct, deemed, and indirect exports, which together account for roughly one-fourth of our finished goods sales, export market-dependent revenues were largely flat on year-over-year basis. Importantly, this combined export-linked revenue pool recorded a modest sequential increase, indicating early signs of stabilization rather than further deterioration. Following the recent announcements around India-U.S. tariffs and other trade agreements, we are closely tracking developments and await further clarity on the fine prints for these agreements. Directionally, we view these developments are positive for long-term economic growth and industry opportunities.
In parallel, some OEMs in CV and farm equipment segments have marginally revised their outlook for calendar year 2026 compared to the guidance issued in Q 3 calendar 2025, with industry growth expectations now indicating stability to modest low single-digit growth. Against this backed-up outlook, our export business hence appears more constructive as compared to the previous quarter, which could support a gradual recovery and growth in our existing export-linked business. Moving to our industry segment highlights for Q 3 FY26, our diversified portfolio remains a cornerstone of our strategy. This balanced exposure allows us to effectively de-risk while fully capturing the robust secular growth in the domestic and international markets. Commercial vehicle contributed 37% to our operating revenue in the nine-month 2026 period. The segment continues to be the highest contributor during the quarter.
The combination of the GST rate cut, improving affordability, and healthy infrastructure-led demand mainly supported a meaningful pickup in the industry volumes. Also, domestic CV dispatches saw an uptick supported by sustained freight activities. With improving lead indicators in the domestic market, such as supportive policy measures and sustained infrastructure activity, we are optimistic about the segments to sustain its strong demand visibility and positive momentum, positioning us well for continued growth. However, the broader global backdrop remains soft, with major markets in North America and Europe yet to show meaningful recovery momentum. Farm equipment contributed 31% to our total operating revenue in nine-month 2026. The domestic tractor industry demonstrated growth supported by favorable monsoons and Kharif agriculture output. Industry volumes grew on the back of strong rural demand and improved cash flows.
Looking ahead in 2027, industry demand is expected to remain stable, supported by normal monsoon assumptions, steady farm incomes, and sustained mechanization trends to agriculture. As for the outlook released by some OEMs, the European and U.S. farm equipment markets are expected to remain broadly stable or range-bound in calendar year 2026. Industrials contributed 15% to our overall operating revenue in nine-month 2026. The segment delivered a stable performance in the quarter, supported mainly by demand across power generation, renewables such as wind, railways, oil and gas, and digital infrastructure. Overall, the outlook for this segment is positive given the rapid expansion of India's data center ecosystem, solar and grid capacity additions, rail modernization, and maintenance cycles that are likely to continue support auto vehicles. Off-highway contributed 12% to our operating revenue. Amid broader category weakness: the domestic off-highway segment saw softer year-over-year basis.
Slower project awards, particularly in roads and highway and other infrastructure segments along the land acquisition approval-related delays, moderated the pace of project execution. This impacted equipment demand during the period. Industry conditions in Europe and U.S. remained challenging during this period. Passenger vehicles contributed 5% to our total revenue in nine-month 2026. The passenger vehicle segment continued to perform well and now contributed close to a mid-single-digit share of revenues. We have strong visibility on incremental business in this segment and expect this contribution to scale meaningfully over the next few years. We increased our machining capacity to 68,000 tons, an addition of 9,800 metric tons in Q 3 FY26. This expansion is in anticipation of the upcoming demand. Further, we will strengthen our forging capacities by commissioning a new 10,000-ton press in Q 4 FY26 and the 4,000-ton press in H1 FY27.
To improve our cost efficiency and support our ESG commitments, we have signed long-term leases for 80 acres of land to develop a captive solar power plant. We anticipated the benefit of this investment to start coming in partly in FY28 and fully thereafter. Furthermore, we are on track with our heavy component-related CapEx, which is progressing well as per the schedule. Looking ahead, we expect domestic demand momentum to continue as global trade dynamics evolve. We hope that export pressures will also subside, paving the way for a measured turnaround in our international markets. We have visibility of new and incremental peak annual business of approximately INR 800 crore expected to commence from FY27 onwards, which will scale up over the next two to three years. This includes incremental revenues from heavy component CapEx lines. The addition of this business will further strengthen our diversification efforts.
A large part of the upcoming business is linked to industrial and passenger vehicles, with nearly two-thirds oriented towards export markets. Consequently, the contribution of industrials, EV, and export-dependent segments is expected to increase meaningfully in the overall mix and have a positive impact on the revenue diversification and profitability as well. I'll now invite our CFO, Mr. Pankaj Kumar Goyal, to share a detailed breakdown of our financial drivers and offer further analytical color on our Q 3 and nine-month performance.
Thank you. I hope I am audible to all of you. Good morning, everyone. Let's now dive into the key financial metrics that defined our performance for the third quarter and nine-month period of FY26. We recorded revenue from operations of INR 391 crore for Q3 FY26 and INR 1,122 crore for nine-month FY26. This represents a YoY expansion of 10.4% and 6.2% for the quarter and nine-month period respectively.
We registered a YoY volume growth of 13.8% in Q3 FY26 and 7.6% for nine-month FY26. Realizations were marginally lower for both Q3 and Q4, primarily due to changes in product mix and lower scrap prices. Gross profit reached INR 230 crore in Q3 and INR 663 crore for nine months, reflecting an uptick of 12.2% and 8.5% YoY respectively. This performance anchored healthy gross margins of 58.9% for the quarter and 59.1% for nine months. EBITDA clocked in at INR 120 crore for Q3 and INR 337 crore for nine-month FY26, making a year-on-year surge of 18.7% and 10.8% respectively. Consequently, EBITDA margins settled at 30.8% and 30.1% respectively as a result of operating leverage. Profit after tax stood at INR 79 crore for the quarter and INR 218 crore for nine-month FY26.
This reflects a significant YoY growth of 22.3% for Q 3 and 11.8% for nine months on an adjusted basis, with PAT margins holding firm at 20.2% and 19.4% for Q3 and nine months respectively. I would also like to clarify that we have no financial impact from the new labor code transition as our current provisions and practices are already fully compliant with the updated regulations. Our balance sheet remains a core strength of the organization. Through focused working capital management, we have maintained stability relative to working capital levels of H1 FY26. This reduced our working capital intensity combined with our expanding margin profile has translated into robust cash flow conversions, thereby resulting in INR 315 crore in cash flow from operations for the nine-month FY26 period. Our treasury position has further strengthened, with total liquid assets now exceeding INR 400 crore.
This provides us with a significant buffer and financial flexibility to fund our growth initiatives from internal approvals. We continue to invest for the future. Our ongoing CapEx program is progressing as per schedule. With INR 300 crore deployed in the first nine months of the year, we expected our total CapEx for FY26 to be in the range of INR 400 -INR 500 crore, all of which aimed at augmenting our high growth capabilities and enhancing long-term value for our stakeholders. With that, we are ready to commence the question-and-answer session. I will turn it back to the moderator to invite the first question.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two.
Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Preet Pitani from InCred AMC. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity, sir. I only had one question. I was also on the line of gross margin. We have seen the improvement YoY on the gross margin despite raw material headwinds. What has led to such improvement, and what do we expect going forward? Thank you.
So thank you. Gross margin improvement trend has improved over the last several years. It is improving year-on-year. That's largely on account of the product mix changes, which is happening, whereas the new product introduction is at better realization rate, which is kind of improving the overall average for the realizations.
And this is despite the falling raw material prices that have happened in the last one and a half to two years. Going forward, we expect this momentum to continue as well on a medium-term basis as our export share will improve and also the industrial business will improve going forward.
Just to follow up on that, the realization, if I can see that this quarter, it was 3% down year-on-year, and despite we have seen gross margin improvement. So if you could just highlight that.
There's a fall in steel prices as well. So you're seeing the total realization base. But if you see the raw material price, the raw material price fall was even more than that. And secondly, it's because of the changes in the product mix.
Can you just name what are the top raw materials which have been used along with the percentage of the contribution to the overall raw material base?
So we largely consume alloy steel, and alloy steel grades like 1541, 20MnCr5, or chrome-moly grades, and carbon steel grades largely used for automotive requirements and wind requirements. So this is the base that we consume. And we also consume some bit of stainless steel in our product.
Thank you, sir. I'll join back in the queue.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mihir Vora from Equirus. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for taking my question. So, sir, just one clarification on Capex. What would be the nine-month Capex that we have already incurred and some projections for the FY27 Capex number as well?
Sure. So we have already completed a CapEx of almost INR 300 crore in nine months this financial year. And the expectation for next year is close to INR 400 crore, excluding solar project. Including solar, it will be close to INR 480 crore.
Okay. All right. Okay. Next one is, sir, basically, we saw a good decent growth in the industrial segment here, which you mentioned in opening remarks was driven by the domestic part of it. But here, can you throw some more light on what kind of components are we basically giving into the railway segment, which you mentioned here, and some more light on the components in the industrial part?
So railway is a very small segment for us. We produce piston pins for loco application where we are import substitutes. And within industrial, we supply crankshafts as well as wind pinions. The large crankshaft goes for heavy genset applications. The wind pinions are for wind gearboxes.
Okay. Okay. Okay. And, sir, lastly, on the order book front, which you have mentioned around INR 800 crore, which also includes the heavy engineering part, but here, are we seeing some incremental orders? Previously, I think we had mentioned a confirmed order of INR 100 crore. Do we see any more confirmation here in the heavy engineering segment?
So on the heavy engineering, particularly on the large crankshaft family, we have close to INR 180 crore of signed orders right now. And going forward, we are waiting for the capacity to come in place, but we are already in discussion with several OEMs for this project. But as the timelines are very close by, so I think the real marketing will start around June, July because we expect equipment to reach in the plant.
That will be the time when we can actually demonstrate our capabilities once the infrastructure is built.
So when do we expect that plant to be utilized at a fair level? Will it be in FY28 or FY29?
So some bit of utilization will start coming from FY28 and largely from FY29.
Okay. Okay. Okay. That's all from my side. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Joseph George from IIFL. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you. I have two questions. One is, when I look at your capacity numbers that are given in the PPT, your forging stands at 127,000 and machining stands at 68,000. Could you give us a sense of where these numbers will end at the end of FY27?
Yes. So FY27, we'll be looking at forging capacity of 150,000 tons and machining capacities around 82,000 tons.
Okay. And this obviously doesn't include much of the heavy engines capacity or heavy components capacity?
No. No. No. That will probably come in FY28.
That'll come in FY28. And when that comes in, we'll end closer to 200,000 in terms of forgings?
Around 180,000 on the forging side and around 90,000 in terms of the machining capacity.
Understood. Thanks. The second question that I had was on gross margins. You mentioned that your initial comment had reference to raw materials, etc. What I want to understand is, isn't the price of steel a complete pass-through under your contract with your customers? That is one. And second is, we have seen currency moving all over the place, be it euro INR, USD INR. What are the implications for these currency movements for your profitability?
So I'll take with the so steel is a pass-through in most of the cases.
You can say almost 85% of the business, steel is a pass-through, but there is a lag of one month, and in export, there is a lag of one quarter. But scrap is not pass-through. So whatever scrap gain or loss comes, that goes directly in the EBITDA. So if you see last year, till December, we have seen scrap prices falling. And going forward, we see scrap prices improving as well. So the new contracts probably we get signed now for the scrap prices will be at better realizations, better prices as it has started to move upwards. But on the steel side, it is a pass-through for us. And on the domestic side, it is passed with a one-month lag, and we have sufficient inventories to actually cover that.
With regard to forex, forex in some of the contracts is a pass-through mechanism, and in some of the contracts is a long-term agreement where we hedge our currency on a long-term basis. So we work on both types of contracts. But largely, on the open contract, we follow hedge policy right now. There's no significant gap.
Okay. How long are your hedges, typically, duration?
It is typically for one, one and a half years looking forward.
Understood. Understood. Thank you. That's all I had.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sahil Sanghvi from Monarch Networth Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, sir, and good to see the numbers improving. Congratulations on that, also on holding a very strong margin number. I have two set of questions.
One, if you can give me the split of what was the growth in the domestic market and the growth or degrowth in the export market, if you can split that in whatever manner possible, revenue volumes.
Okay. Sure. So roughly, 55% of our revenue comes from domestic CV and domestic farm business. So where in terms of value, we have grown by almost 22%, you can see on an average in terms of value. In terms of volume, it's actually better.
22%, right?
Yes. On the domestic CV and farm, which is around 55%-57% of our revenues. Whereas on the off-highway side, we have witnessed a degrowth, both domestic as well as international, and we have one large customer where we have seen this actually dipping.
On the CV export side, we have seen a weakness where there is a degrowth to the level of almost 10%-12%, both in Europe as well as in the U.S. market. And the degrowth is more on the U.S. business on the CV side. On the farm export, it's a very small percentage. It's a new vertical where we have seen growth. And on the PV side, we have seen on the domestic as well as export side a growth of almost 37% year-on-year. So that is something which is ongoing. So largely, on the degrowth side, it's off-highway business where we have seen a degrowth and the CV export business, which is where we have seen this degrowth coming in.
All right, sir. And this is very elaborate.
My second question is to understand what happens to the new orders next year, especially on the export front if the demand remains subdued. So we have a very strong new order book as such, but what kind of visibility do we have of these orders getting converted at the right time? Anything you can explain on that?
So on the export side, we have largely three programs and largely for U.S., which is for the industrial sector for gensets, which we have already started ramping up, and we have a visibility for the entire year thanks to the tariff situation that the numbers are very clear now. On the EV business, we are already ramping up, already started the ramp-up in December, starting from December on the EV export business, which is indirect exports to North America.
And the third large order that we have is for the PV sector export. Over there as well, the visibility is there that we have to build stocks in U.S. warehouses in September. So we'll start ramping up from May, June onwards on that business as well. And that is not related to CV. That's a PV program where volumes are established, and not much of a variation is seen as of now in terms of volumes for that. So that's the visibility we have on all these three projects. And we expect export percentage to improve meaningfully from second quarter of next financial year.
All right, sir. Got it. Very helpful. Thank you, sir, and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Akash from NVAFM. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for taking my question.
So just wanted to understand from a very quarter-on-quarter perspective, I think we have seen a realization dip by almost 5%. So just wanted to understand, and due to which we have also seen a kind of gross margins dipping on a sequential basis. Just wanted to understand, I mean, what you can say, which segment is a margin driver for us or which segment has basically fallen off due to which we have taken a hit on our margins is what I wanted to understand.
So I am just not clear with your question. Can you just repeat once again? You're asking that realization. Can you just come once again?
Yeah. Sure. So, sir, we have seen a realizations dip by almost 5% on a sequential basis. I don't think steel prices have fallen that much on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Yeah.
So what I wanted to understand, which segment is basically hitting us in terms of gross margins and realizations?
So basically, it has not gone down. You can say that because of the product mix changes, we are seeing this largely on account of increased sales on the forged products to the tune of almost 1.5%-2%. We are seeing this. On the other side, again, the cost is also less because of more of forged products sale. That has also resulted in improvement in margin. That has happened because of the product mix. Even though there is a realization change is there, but if you look at the cost, sequentially, cost has also gone down.
Yeah. So that's what I wanted to understand. For the product mix part, basically, we have a higher set of realizations and margins in this segment.
Is it industrial CV? And that basically is.
It's an industrial export business which has picked up, which is largely very heavy components that we are exporting, which are largely on a forged nature of products where the realization is not similar to crankshafts, is less than that. Over there, there is an increase. But yes, relatively, the cost is not the same. So sequentially, if you see, the cost increment has not happened. But even despite of that, there is an improvement in overall margin.
Understood. And, sir, I think to an earlier participant question, you explained with the volume growth across all segments except for industrial. So on a five-year basis, industrial has seen how much growth, volume growth?
Just a sec. So around volume growth on industrial is around 2%.
Understood. And my last question will be for FY 2027.
I think we are installing a 10,000-ton press line this quarter. So I would like to understand for which components, which segment are we installing that, and basically, what new programs are in place or new orders will start for us incrementally in FY27 and for which segments. Yeah. That's it.
We have already started ramping up on some of the industrial businesses on this line, and this will contribute on the industrial as well as on the CV side. We've started ramping up from over 8,000-ton press line, and we expect to reach peak capacity utilization on 8,000-ton very soon. That is the reason this 10,000-ton press line was planned. The incremental volumes on the industrial side as well as on the CV side that we are looking from some of our customers on the domestic business will clearly come out of this press line.
Understood. Thank you. I'll come back in a second.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nitin Agrawal from JM Financial. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity and congratulations on the excellent numbers. I just wanted to have your thoughts about the recent deal with the U.S. Some of the components fall under Section 232. So where are we? What kind of a duty are we expecting on our product exported to the U.S. market? I know a lot of clarity is required, but wanted to know yourself, will it be zero under Section 232 or 80% kind of a duty?
So it is still not clear. See, in most of the cases, the duty is paid by our customers. So we have not kept it in our scope.
It also depends how they are importing it and how they are getting it cleared prior to this situation because they cannot change those terms if they are importing under certain clause. So different customers are importing and getting it cleared in a different manner. So it's very difficult to say, "Yes, there are definitely ways and means to get it cleared under 18% as well." But we are aware that not many are doing that right now. So we still have to see how there'll be more clarity coming in on this, I think, in next one month's time. But it's not in our scope.
Okay. Okay. So just one more question on that as well. So if we are coming to 80% duty, do we get a competitive advantage to companies which are based out of China? So do we get additional business from the U.S.? Any sense on that?
You are right. India will be at an advantageous position if you compare it with China as well as Brazil because a lot of forged and machine components of this size are actually coming out of Brazil in the U.S. markets. Brazil today is at 50%, and so is China. So India will get the benefit of this. And on one of the industrial projects, the supply chain is in China. So we will be seeing business increasing in this part.
Okay. Okay. That's really helpful. That's it from my side. Thank you.
Thank you. Participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. The next question is from the line of Aniket Mhatre from Motilal Oswal Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity. Just quickly, you had indicated incremental order wins of INR 8 billion. By when do you expect to reach this number?
So good morning, Aniket. Almost 80% of the business, 80%-85% of the business is to be delivered in the next two years. And accordingly, the ramp-up and the capacities are planned for those businesses. And regarding the high horsepower, which is around INR 180 crore out of this INR 800 crore, which will come some bit of it will come in FY28, and balance will go in FY29. And largely, you can see around INR 620 crore of the business is across the other range of sectors, which will be delivered, which will start ramping up and start executing these numbers in next 18-20 months.
So by FY28, we should expect 80%-85% of this INR 8 billion to be executed?
Yes.
Understood. Got it. The other question I had, sir, was on your again, from a margins perspective. Basically, you had indicated that from Q2 of FY27, exports will start ramping up, right? And I mean, as a general thumb rule, we understand exports will be higher margin. So is it fair to assume that margins can continue to gradually inch up as our mix improves in the coming years?
So Aniket, as we are already at a very strong range of numbers, definitely, some improvements will come. So you can say that we'll be range-bound 28%-32%. And also on the realization bit, and as we will start exporting, yes, some improvements will happen over there as well. Scrap prices also, we are seeing improvement, which will also drive some improvements over there.
Thirdly, with regard to the solar project, which is coming up, we expect that to also improve our power cost starting from third quarter because it will roughly generate around power, almost INR 25-INR 30 crore per annum.
So the solar project itself, I guess, should be about a 50 basis points income, if I'm understanding? Aniket, can you repeat?
You were not clear.
No, sorry. I was asking about the solar project. What kind of benefit can we expect in terms of our margins once it's fully operational?
So we expect to reduce our power cost by INR 25-INR 30 crore per annum, which is a substantial cost reduction that will be seen on our power bill on an annualized basis.
Understood. And how about steel prices? I mean, we are hearing steel prices are, again, inching up. Are we seeing that in our grade of steel that we use for our raw materials as well?
So the alloy steel market, actually, the settlement happens with a lag. And sometimes, settlement happens with a retrospective date. So large OEMs like Tata Motors actually decide on this alloy steel pricing. It is not like the daily price movement that happened. On the daily price movement levels on the ingots and also on the TMT rates, it is already clear on the charts that the steel prices have started moving up, also on the scrap prices. So we can say that, yes, the settlement that will happen will also drive the alloy steel prices. But as of now, it is not settled. So when the settlement happens, it could be retrospective that happens from 1st of January.
But yes, definitely, it looks like that the cycle is now started even on the commodity side, which will probably be there for next 12-15 months.
And, sir, what is the kind of increase we are seeing for our grade of products for steel?
So Aniket, it is still not settled. It could be in a range of INR 3-INR 4/kg, but it all depends on the primary steel producers and Tata Motors to settle it because once it is settled, it is settled for at least one or two quarters because the changes will not happen in between. But roughly, you can say INR 3-INR 4 is expected to go up. That can happen from 1st of April, or some bit of it can pass on from 1st of January. That's not clear.
Understood. Just my final question on exports. I understand, but just correct me if I'm wrong. About 50% of our export mix comes from CVs, right? And roughly, just about 1% from farm equipment. Could you help us understand what is the mix for industrial exports and OHV exports and PV exports?
Sorry. Yes, yes. If I combine direct and indirect, so 3% is off-highway exports, 8% is industrial exports, and 4% is farm equipment exports.
And CVs?
CVs around 10%-12%.
How is it with passenger vehicles?
Passenger right now is very small. We have just started from December onwards. It is just 1% right now. So we expect this percentage to improve going forward.
Got it, sir. That's it from my side. Thank you, and all the very best. Thank you.
Thank you. Participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one. The next question is from the line of Vijay Pandey from Nuvama. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for taking my question, and congratulations for a good set of numbers. A couple of questions I just wanted to understand if you can tell us that for the pipeline of INR 800 crore, so what will be the bifurcation in terms of industrial, commercial vehicle, off-highway, and passenger vehicle?
Yes. Just give me a minute. So it is roughly around 24% coming from passenger vehicle, 27% coming from commercial vehicle, 44% from industrials, and 4% from farm equipment.
Okay. Okay. Secondly, recently, Volvo in their conference call or in their earnings, I believe, they have increased the guidance for calendar year 2026. So I just wanted to understand Volvo trucks. So I just want to understand, how do you see the outlook?
Are you seeing some improvement in Europe and U.S. market on the CV side? Because some of the OEMs are increasing their guidance, especially for Europe.
On the guidance side, when we have reviewed, there is a slight improvement, what they are showing.
So you see Europe heavy duty, we are seeing close to 10%. 10,000?
Yes.
And any improvement on the North America?
Roughly around 10,000. Yes, roughly around 5% forecast increase is there for Europe for CV for this year, sorry, this calendar year.
So are we seeing that in Harvard orders also or Harvard sales also?
See, sir, we maintain min-max levels for European OEMs. And we still have to see that movement coming in because there will be inventory, which we are kind of reducing because of last year. Once we see that uptick, we'll be seeing.
But right now, on the CV side, till the numbers that we have till June with us reflect slight improvement, but not much of an improvement we are seeing over there. But definitely, yes, over last year, we see some improvement on those numbers as well. On the off-highway side, we are seeing on off-highway side and industrial side, we are seeing some improvements. We have the forecast for the entire year, which definitely shows a better number.
Thank you. That's pretty helpful. Sir, the new capex, so that plant that will become operational in FY28, so what will be our forging and machining capacity for that?
Yes. So forging capacity will improve from 150,000 tons to 180,000 tons, so roughly increment of 30,000 tons in terms of the forging capacity.
In phase one, as there are two large machining lines planned, for FY28, the first machining line will come, which will add additional 5,000 tons of machining capacity. In FY29, there is another machining capacity which is planned. So roughly 10,000 tons of machining capacities will also increase by FY28 and 2029.
Combined or 10,000 each a year?
No, sorry, 5,000 tons each because this is particularly for large, high-horsepower crankshaft. But we also plan to sell semi-machined products or other machined products which are not in crankshaft application, especially on the wind side, which are in discussions. And relatively, the Capex for those programs will not be the same. It will be much lesser. The machining Capex will be coming at lesser price.
Sure. Thank you, sir. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one. The next question is from the line of Mitul Shah from Pantomath Financial Services. Please go ahead.
Sir, thank you for the opportunity. And congratulations for a very strong performance, particularly record high margins in this tough business environment. Sir, I have two questions. First one is on the U.S. side. Considering that, of course, it's too early, but in the last few days, this revised duty structure, are you getting any sense or any initial discussion with a very high level of inquiries or very strong traction?
So Mitul, a lot of the inquiry flow was already there. But yes, the decision-making was not happening the last six to eight months. Everything was stuck, particularly on the farm side where they are seeing relative weakness. And the idea was to cut cost for the North American OEMs.
So over there, we have started our discussions. And again, on the PV side for our existing customer base where we already have programs, we are in discussions for sourcing and other activities also. So definitely, interactions have started now. And we are hopeful that the conversion of business will also happen in this year. It could be much faster.
And assuming that latest revised duty structure remains there and considering all our peers are sizable in terms of the U.S. contribution, where do you see our U.S. revenue two or three years down the line as a percentage of overall business?
So Mitul, so right now, we are around 7%-8% on direct and indirect business to U.S. This will definitely inch up to 15%-16% going forward.
The meaningful increase will come from PV programs that we already have and for which we all plan to ramp up very soon, and also on the industrial side, which will come at a medium-term basis.
Yeah. But sir, actually, the CV cycle seems to be bottoming out globally now after almost one and a half, two years slowdown. So don't you think CV would be a bigger trigger compared to PVs or farm?
So these are completely based on the new project wins and the new orders which we have. And on the CV side, we don't have much of a business in North America right now. And we still have to see. But right now, on the CV side, there are excess inventories which are in place. So the flow of new businesses on the CV side is very less.
But this correction, probably, we'll have to see because definitely, there'll be shift from China. And we can see more opportunity on the CV side as well.
So lastly, one clarification on this solar project. As you said, next year, Q3, it will become operational. So when can we expect fully operational that INR 25-INR 30 crore benefit on annualized basis? Would that be from Q3, Q4 next year, or it will take another year or so?
No, once the facility is started, Mitul, we can reach the ideal generation levels within 10-15 days. Just that October to February or mid-January period is a winter period in North India. Yet, generation is relatively lesser. But yes, you can see that we can start producing peak units from mid-February onwards on the plant. And it will kind of peak out because summer months will definitely have higher units.
But yes, and once the plant is operational, then within 10-15 days, we can reach up to the optimum generation capacity. Yes, sir. And this is the entire is for captive use.
Yeah. And related to that, in FY2028 or FY2029, this solar would be how much % of the overall contribution of power requirement?
So in FY2028, because FY2028, we expect the entire utilization for this to come. And.
Hello? Hello? Hello? Hello? Hello? Hello? Hello?
Management, am I audible?
Yes, Mark.
So sorry for the inconvenience caused. Hello?
Yeah, Mark. What happened?
The team is looking into it, ma'am. So they will give you a clear response on what exactly happened. What I'll do is I'll just wait for a couple of minutes. The participants are yet joining into this call.
Okay. So should we just give a closing remark and say that there was some technical issue and we can take questions offline?
Yes, I think that's what we will do. It's already 11:00 A.M., I think. Most of the participants have already left. So let's announce for the closure and request them to send an.
Send a closing remark and close it. I think we'll reach out separately to people then.
Yes.
So what I'll just give the handover to you, sir, and then you can just give your closing remark.
To Mr. Ashish?
Yes. Yes, yes.
As there are no more further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to Sir Ashish Garg for the closing comments.
Thank you. And sorry, participants, for the technical issues.
To conclude, our performance through Q3 and nine months of FY26 reinforces the strength of our core fundamentals and our growth strategy. In a dynamic landscape, our focus remains on leveraging advanced engineering capabilities and operating scale to deliver consistent outcomes. Looking ahead, continued investments in capacity and deeper customer integration will drive sustained long-term value creation. We thank you for the continued trust in Happy Forgings Limited. It's a privilege to have you join us for an insightful discussion. We believe to have addressed your queries satisfactorily. However, we welcome any further engagement through an IR team. Should you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to SGA, our IR relation partners. Thank you for joining us today.
Thank you. On behalf of Happy Forgings Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your line.