Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited Q1 FY 2025 earnings conference call, hosted by Antique Stock Broking. As a reminder, all participants' lines will be in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Vaidyanathan Rangan from Antique Stock Broking. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Seju. Good afternoon, everyone. It's a pleasure to welcome all the participants and the top management of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited to this 1Q results call. We have with us Mr. Pushp karma Joshi, Chairman Managing Director, Mr. Rajneesh Narang, Director Finance, Mr. S. Bharathan, Director Refineries, Mr. Amit Garg, Director Marketing, and Mr. K. Vinod, Executive Director, Corporate Finance. A very warm welcome to all of you. I would like to hand over the floor to Mr. Pushp karma Joshi for his initial comments. Over to you, sir.
Very good afternoon. Thank you, Vaidyanathan. Very good afternoon to all my friends. I would start by sharing the details of our performance in this quarter. I would say that number one is that our revenue from operations has gone up. It is INR 10,120,869 crores during this quarter. Apart from that, we have gained our market share in sales of our products. Our sales have been highest ever in any quarter. Our refinement throughput also is higher than the previous quarters. This, against the background that we had a shutdown in our Mumbai refinery. So despite that, our physicals, now if you see physicals in terms of refinement, in terms of marketing, in terms of pipeline throughput, and our overall revenue from operations, they have been better than the previous quarters.
That is an indicator of the fundamentals which we have earlier indicated that our company now is on a very strong footing as far as our refining and marketing operations are concerned. The challenges during these quarters were that there were highly suppressed GRMs. Singapore GRMs were somewhere in the tune of $3.5 per barrel. Although we have done about $5.5 per barrel in this quarter, but Singapore were $3.5. That was because of suppressed cracks of the product. The crude prices had traveled northward. That had an impact on our GRMs as well as in terms of fuel loss for our refineries. We also had significant suppression of our LPG margins, and there was under-recovery in LPG. While in petrol and diesel, there was a balance.
As we look at currently, we are again back to the normal thing as far as our margins are concerned in petrol and diesel. LPG, as I said, we had under-recoveries, and there were substantial under-recoveries. But at the same time, since this was just a quarter, our experience in the past has been that this has been adequately taken cognizance of. Because this is a controlled product, we have been receiving support from government. If you would recall that we had received support to the tune of INR 5,600+ crores in the previous instance. So we are configuring that in our future plans. Another significant thing I want to add is that this calendar year-end, we would be completing our major projects in terms of one is Visakhapatnam Refinery.
Visakhapatnam Refinery, we wish to share that post-expansion, all our units are stabilized, including the CDU-4, which is the most energy-efficient CDU in the country that is fully stabilized. Also, in terms of our bottom operation facility, in this quarter itself, we would be achieving mechanical completion of that facility. From third quarter onwards, as we had indicated earlier, we will have substantial gain in our GRMs that would start accruing from third quarter onwards post-stabilization of our bottom operation facility. Second major project would be that we would be commissioning our LNG regasification and storage terminal at Chhara, that is in Saurashtra, in Gujarat. That would be completed. We would also be completing our LPG cavern storage facility at Mangalore. We would also be commissioning our 2G ethanol plant at Bathinda. All this would happen before this calendar year end.
As far as our HRRL is concerned, I'm happy to share that we have achieved more than 80% completion on overall physical progress. The refining portion, where the progress is +90%, we have been able to commission the pipelines, the offsite facilities, all the facilities which are there, which are required. So therefore, it is our target. We are confident that by this financial year end, we would be able to commission our refining portion of HRRL, that is our Barmer Refineries. Now, our results, we have shared the details already in terms of our press release and things like that. I would leave the floor open to begin with for any queries which are there. And subsequent any clarification, any comments which are there, we would like to do that. I also want to add one more facet, that is regarding our lubrication business.
As we had indicated that last year, in the middle of last year, we had taken the board approval for enhancing the value of our lubes business. And we had taken the consultancy and advisory of a world-renowned consultant. The report has been submitted. The study has been over. As far as actions on that is concerned, we have already started and taken steps in terms of improving the operational efficiency, logistics, supply chain, and branding. All those actions are underway. Second is, as regards carving out, we have indicated that we have started the process that is under active consideration of the competent authorities in terms of de-merging or whatever action which we have to take. That action also is in line. So that is as far as our lubricant business is concerned.
I would now invite any queries or questions which are there, and we will attempt to answer all those. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Probal Sen from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for the opportunity. Good afternoon, sir. I have three questions. Firstly, it's a bit of an accounting question with respect to this LPG subsidy. If you can kindly, sir, make us understand how this subsidy is accounted for. Our understanding is that when the surplus arises, it is put in some sort of an off-balance sheet reserve. But the losses as they incur are actually taken in the P&L. Kindly, if you can confirm that my understanding is correct, that's my first question.
Yeah. Add the other two, you want to?
Yeah, I'll answer them quickly. Sir, the second question was with respect to the crude cost which you mentioned has risen in this quarter. Just wanted to get a sense of what percentage of Russian crude are we still getting and what sort of guidance, if any, you can give for the rest of the year. And the third question was with respect to Visakh, where the throughput has stabilized at around 3 million tons a quarter from what we can see. From the second half, can we expect this run rate to go closer to about 3.5 million tons? As you mentioned that the CDU-4 now has stabilized. So will that higher throughput reflect in the second half overall throughput numbers? Those were my three questions, sir. Thank you.
Yeah, sure. The first one regarding LPG subsidy, I would request Mr. Narang to address that. As far as the second and third questions are concerned, that is as regards Russian crude and as regards the Visakh refinery, we will address that. So first, Mr. Narang will address this question.
Sure.
LPG subsidy.
Yeah, good afternoon, Mr. Sen and all the esteemed participants. As regards accounting of LPG subsidy is concerned, your understanding is right. Whenever there is an over-recovery, because this is a controlled product, LPG is a controlled product, whereas the selling price to the end consumer is fixed by the government. Now, in case the selling in the selling price, which the government has fixed, there is an over-recovery. That over-recovery goes and sits in the buffer account. And that is not taken into the P&L of the company. And in case there is an under-recovery, like the case in this quarter, that under-recovery is accounted as part of the profit and loss account. It gets into the P&L of the company.
Now, you may say, "Why a differential treatment?" Because as of now, the way the government has worded the scheme to us is that any excess recovery needs to be parked separately. But on the short, wherever there is going to be a shortfall, it has not been specified very clearly. However, in the past also, like the Chairman in his address has covered, that we have got that INR 5,617 crore of negative buffer in the previous year. Now, coming to your next question as to the crude, the percentage of crude which has been procured from Russia, the crude which we have procured from Russia is almost 35%-40% of our entire crude diet currently. And the same has increased substantially compared to the last year, where it was around 25%. Now, third, as regards the Visakh throughput, the Visakh throughput, you are right, is increasing.
Subsequent to the commissioning of the FCHCU and as on date, and also as regards the Q4 is concerned, we will be taking the refinery to beyond the 14 million metric tons, around 15 million metric tons. That would be around between 3.5-4 million metric tons per quarter.
Thank you very much, sir. I'll come back in the queue. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sumeet Rohra from SmartSun Capital PTE. Please go ahead.
Hello.
Yeah, please, please.
Yeah, hi, sir. Good morning to you. Good morning to the team. Sir, firstly, I mean, I just wanted to understand. So if, sir, the LPG part is basically in the P&L, which basically then means that we have for the quarter reported close to INR 3,000 crore profit, which, sir, is very healthy. And I mean, in a challenging environment, I mean, you guys have delivered very well. So very good on that. Sir, my question now was more towards the commissioning of the Visakh residue upgradation project. So, sir, if you can please explain how much would it add to the overall GRMs. And, sir, secondly, on the lubricant part, now, if I'm correct, our total volumes is, sir, around 650 TMT, which is like we are three times bigger than Castrol.
Now, sir, today, the other company which I mentioned, its market cap is already upward of INR 25,000 crore. So, sir, our lubricant business is a very valuable part of HPCL today. And the value unlocking process can unlock huge amounts of value for HPCL also. Sir, can you please share some thoughts on that? And, sir, lastly, just one thing is that once our projects are commissioned, which is the Barmer Refinery, the Chhara terminal, the LPG cavern, as you highlighted. So, sir, then our EBITDA, our target $5 billion EBITDA, can you also just speak a bit on that? Because then investors get a lot more clarity when we can understand numbers. It will give an extremely high amount of clarity to all the investor community, sir. Thank you very much, sir.
Yeah, thank you, Sumeet. Yes, as regards to what you said about the LPG under-recovery, cumulatively, as of Q1, we have a total under-recovery of almost INR 2,400 crore plus on account of the negative buffer, which had gone into our P&L. So as and when the same is settled by the government, definitely to that extent, the profitability will improve. Now, coming to the RUF, as Chairman has already covered, that in this quarter, the mechanical completion of RUF would be completed. And in the next quarter, the commissioning activities would be done. Thereafter, we will start getting the benefit out of the RUF unit, which normally takes two to three months for stabilization and all. So from the last quarter onwards, we started to, on a gradual basis, deriving the benefit out of it.
Now, at a peak level, when this unit properly stabilized, the incremental GRM will be more than $3 per barrel. Now, coming to your question on the lubricant business, yes, we are going ahead with our plan for the carve-out. And apart from that, even in the existing setup, we have already started taking various value accretive initiatives to see how we can bring more initiatives and all. We can bring in new initiatives to improve the costs and other benefits we can derive out of the existing within the existing setup. And yes, we intend to, at the moment we get the approval from the concerned authority, our intention is to hit the market. And the market cap which you are referring to is definitely an area where we are also eyeing that we should also get the right value for this line of business.
Investment on the various new units which are likely to get commissioned, LPG cavern, the HSEPL, and the other units which have been stated, yes, definitely all these units will add to the bottom line. And we reconfirm our belief that by 2027, 2028, we will have an EBITDA for almost around INR 40,000 crore, which is equivalent to the $5 billion one which we have been referring to in our investor presentations and also in various other meetings where we have presented the same. Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Maulik Patel from Equirus Securities. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. Two questions. One, can you just spell out your update on the Chhara LNG terminal? Terminal commission, what's your sourcing strategy? Also, you have not sell out the capacity to any third player. And what kind of gas requirement you will have from Chhara to all your three refineries, like Bathinda, Rajasthan, and Mumbai?
Yeah. What's the next question?
Yeah. The next question is on your outlook on the refining side. I mean, where do you see that? Because in the last couple of quarters, last couple of GRM has come down significantly. That middle distillate crack has come down. So where do you see a couple of new capacities also come up? So where do you see that GRM in the next 6-9 months?
Regarding the update on the Chhara terminal, as you are aware that in the month of April also, we had brought a commissioning cargo. However, because the sea was quite rough over there, we couldn't commission. Anyway, we would be undertaking that activity of commissioning the terminal in the month of November or December, maybe early December, depending upon the weather conditions at the site. Now, this terminal is a 5 million metric ton capacity LNG terminal. The breakwater is also being constructed over there. Going forward, maybe at the end of the next wet weather season, even the breakwater would be in place. Almost around 1,000 meters of the breakwater is already completed. Around 800 more meters have to be done up, which will be done in the next season.
As regards the total gas requirement, the captive use of HPCL refineries of HPCL as well as the group company is around 1.5 million metric tons. We will also be booking capacity. We have already got a lot of interest from parties who are willing to book capacities in the same. We are just waiting for the commissioning of the facility to be done, and then we will be signing the agreement for the gasification. As regards the sourcing strategy is concerned, we are already in the market for tying up long-term gas from international players.
Mr. Maulik, does that answer your question?
I think the second question is left.
Oh, sorry. As regards the outlook on the refinery front, yes, the last quarter was depressed as to the GRMs are concerned. But now, currently, if you see the crude prices have started softening. And also, the crack for HSD and MS has started looking up. We expect that the crack would be the GRM for the refineries would be in the range of $5-$8 per barrel. So the GRM which I am referring to is, as the current HPCL configuration with RUF and all other units, it may further increase. So we expect that there would be decent GRMs going forward from $5-$8 per barrel.
Great. Thanks. Wish you all the good luck.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kirtan Mehta from BOB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. One question on the current performance. Would we be able to now separate out how the Visakh refinery margin versus Mumbai refinery margin is quarter-on-quarter changing, as well as the YOY changing? The unit has stabilized, and probably we are back in a time when we can share the refinery level margin.
Yeah, going forward, definitely we are also attempting. But right now, one critical factor which is to be kept in mind is that our Mumbai refinery is also having the lube refining there. So therefore, what happens is the common denominator to compare the performance can be on factors like your fuel and loss after you utilize in terms of facilities. But the basic issue is that in Visakh, we would have very advanced bottom upgradation facilities post-commissioning of RUF. In Mumbai, we do not have a bottom upgradation facility in terms of coker or residue upgradation. And second, Mumbai's substantial portion is in terms of lubes. But going forward, we are measuring on the parameters like energy efficiency in terms of the power used and all that. So that way, we are trying to bring that.
All I can tell you this is that as far as our distillate yields are concerned, we would have substantially higher distillate yields at our Visakh refinery. In Mumbai refinery, they would be in terms of average for these refineries. I would also request our Director Refineries to specifically address some issues on this. Is that how this works? Yeah.
So Mumbai Refinery makes lube oil base stock, which gives an added advantage compared to a fuel refinery. And Visakh Refinery, right now, we make maximum diesel and MS. So once the residue upgrader is commissioned, then it will have an additional margin of around $3 plus. So all this will be seen in the coming months. And as the Singapore GRM goes up, we will also get that incremental, whatever is seen in the international market, that additional margin will come to us also.
Sure. A couple of more questions from my side. One was, would you be able to indicate the inventory gain for losses during the quarter on refining as well as marketing? You mentioned that there was an impact of the higher crude price. And the third question was about the Bathinda refinery. Could you sort of share the profitability during the FY 2024 as well as Q1? And how is the petrochemical utilization going there? And what is the gross margin level and EBITDA that you have achieved for Bathinda?
Yes. Coming to the inventory gains, in marketing, yes. In marketing, there was an inventory loss of INR 245 crore. In refinery, 113 crores. Coming to the HMEL, during this quarter, HMEL had a throughput of 3.27 million metric tons. As regards GRM is concerned, the GRM was more than it was around $10.5 million per barrel. In terms of PAC, it was more than INR 300 crore. As regards the PETCEM is concerned, the total PETCEM production was 534 KT. The PETCEM sale was 471 KT.
Is the utilization above 90% of the PETCEM units now?
Pardon?
Has utilization gone above 90% for the PETCEM units?
Yeah. Operating at more than 90%.
So is it EBITDA margin accurate where we can assume $200-$300 EBITDA coming from PETCEM units?
Yes. Yes.
Right. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Roshni from Urjis Group. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. I want to ask the details about the maintenance that you said happened in Q1. Do you have anything planned for the rest of the financial year in terms of maintenance?
Sure. Please answer that. Yeah. In our Mumbai refinery, one of the crude distillation units, we took a planned turnaround, which is completed and now running back at full capacity. Visakh refinery, we don't have any plan of any turnaround in the coming quarter. Mumbai refinery also, this year, all the turnarounds are completed. There is no more plan for any additional turnaround.
Okay. But what were the dates for this CDU maintenance?
It's already done. April, we had completed, and the unit is back online with full capacity.
Okay. I noticed that you bought three different kinds of crude for the first time this year. Any reason for this? Do you have plans for any other crude this year?
Yeah. These crudes are opportunity crudes. Two of them are Russian, and another one is a West African crude. So we are always on lookout for opportunity crudes. Whichever is available at an economically, I mean, compatible number, we will take that. And in the coming months also, we will look for such opportunity. If it is available, we'll take any new crude.
Okay. Could you give any details for the Chhara pipeline from where it runs and till where and when it will be completed totally?
The pipeline work has been completed. It has been connected from Chhara to a place called Gundala, and that is connected to the gas grid of Gujarat, that is GSPL. So as far as evacuation from Chhara is concerned, the pipeline is completed. It has been commissioned. Now, post-commissioning of our Chhara terminal, that pipeline will be under utilization. So we will be able to ensure evacuation of all the molecules through that pipeline.
Okay. Will LNG from the Chhara feed only the Gujarat gas and the CGV?
No. It will be because that pipeline can be taken anywhere in the country. So it will be across the country. And we will be looking for exchange arrangements because for our Visakh refinery, for our Barmer refinery, for our Mumbai refinery. So once that pipeline connectivity is there, then the gas thing can be taken across the country.
Okay. Okay. Yeah. Thank you so much, sir.
You're welcome.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mayank Maheshwari from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for doing the call. A couple of questions from my end. I think the first one was on the Rajasthan refinery. Can you just talk us through in terms of the progress on the PETCEM side, the CAPEX you have spent, and how much is the debt level for the Rajasthan refinery?
Sure, Mike. Thank you. Thank you very much. Mike, specifically for Rajasthan refinery, I would just read out the details to you. But the construction of all the process units is progressing in full swing, and they have been completed. So physical progress of the process units, that is CDU, VDU, DCU, PFCCU, and VGU, is about 92%. Overall physical progress, including the PETCEM portion, is about 80%. The commitments so far are INR 69,845 crore, and the CAPEX so far has been INR 48,000 crore. As I had indicated, the refining portion would be commissioned in this financial year end. That is, in the last quarter of this financial year, we'll be able to take the crude from our crude oil terminal facility at Mundra. Our pipelines are completed. We will also be taking Mangala crude, but for commissioning, we would need the imported crude.
So that we are targeting that that would happen in the first week of March. By end March, we should be able to start the units as far as refining portion is concerned. The petrochemical portion, the main units, we have achieved about 80%-85%. The other two units, which are lagging behind, we are catching up on those units. Our target is that post-refining commissioning, maybe another quarter or two quarters, we will be able to achieve mechanical commissioning of our petrochemical portion also of the refinery.
Yeah. That's a great color. Thank you for this. Sorry.
Mike, some more details Mr. Narayan wants to share with you. You have thought detail of the debt and the equity. The debt is around more than INR 32,000 crore, and the balance is the equity the promoters have contributed. That's it. Yeah.
Thank you.
Yeah. And I think the other question, sir, was just. I thought I will follow up with one more. Just, sir, I think last quarter, you had talked about them that you were kind of using AI for your advantage. Any updates on that progress or what you have done? Anything specifically this quarter?
Yeah. We are pursuing with that. In fact, the AI is being used for the video analytics at the retail outlet. We are using it for our demand forecasting and even for various other applications. The OT technologies are being used in refinery. We are working out with SAP also. Recently, in fact, we had a detailed discussion with them. And as to what all we can do with respect to them, the BTP platform of theirs, we are in discussions with them. The RPAs have been extensively deployed for various purposes. So we are giving a lot of trust to the digital transformation within the company. And this is going to be an exercise which will go on for maybe another six to nine months. And the results would be visible at that.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Gagan Dixit from Elara Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. Sir, my question is regarding the Chhara LNG terminal and its connectivity with the Rajasthan refinery. Would you be able to take the LNG from Chhara to the Rajasthan refinery or Rajasthan refinery still need to be connected with the pipeline network?
No, no. We'll be taking the LNG to Rajasthan refinery, and the pipeline connectivity is there.
Yeah. Sir, this also, you say you can use for the Mumbai refinery this LNG from the Chhara. But is it that you already have some tolling agreement with the existing LNG terminals? Might be you can't fully use that. Would it be the case that Mumbai refinery or you can just shift all that you demand to the Chhara LNG terminal?
We'll be shifting the entire demand to Chhara. We have not booked any capacity with any of them. We have been purchasing from various suppliers and using it in our Mumbai refinery and putting. So not any. Yeah. We have not created any obligations considering our own facility at Chhara. So we will not be I mean, that will not come in the way.
Yeah. Second question, sir, regarding the green hydrogen, I can see in your earlier presentation that you're targeting something 17,000 tons per annum green hydrogen by FY 2028. Sir, what is your overall hydrogen requirement and what is the percentage of that something against that you are targeting?
Yeah. Our HPCL Visakh refinery, we have commissioned India's first green hydrogen plant in any Indian refinery. So which was commissioned this month. That is already done. Going forward, we have floated an expression of interest tender for buying 5 KTP of green hydrogen. This is in the immediate future. And in the coming years, as you indicated in 2028 and by 2030, we'll be further augmenting, which will be almost 5%-10% of total hydrogen will be converted to green hydrogen.
Okay. So 17,000 ton is the overall. It's 10% of the overall requirement.
Right. Exactly.
I think there is the, I think, news that oil marketing companies together are planning to make some plan for the green hydrogen. I think I have read somewhere IOCL also statement that they are targeting 50% of the hydrogen should be green hydrogen by 2030. Can I expect similar plan can be possible for HPCL also in future?
Yeah. As a part of our net zero plan, we are going to convert 100% by 2040. Subsequently, we have year-wise plan. Depending on the progress and availability of technology and price of green hydrogen, we will ramp it up.
Sir, my final question is about the recent PNGRB's ruling on the product pipeline tariff. They came out, I think, news that some 75% of the freight, railway freight, something they have packed actually the product pipeline tariff. So how would it impact your overall revenue from the pipeline business? Or if you can give some color about it.
Yeah. You are right. PNGRB has very recently notified as regards the tariffs is concerned. Now, there they have classified three types of pipeline, pipelines which were in the pre-bid bidding period during the bid and pipelines which are going to come in the near future. They have given the broad principles. Now, we have to go through the final details of it. One thing I can only say that if there is an increase in the pipeline tariff, then ultimately, till the time the same is not passed on in the pricing to the end consumer, that tariff doesn't get realized. So we'll have to see the entire gamut of activities. Currently, as regards HPCL is concerned, we are the second largest pipeline for the fuel products. We have more than 5,000-odd kilometers of pipeline.
Right now, for us, we take it as a cost to us. To the extent we maximize the pipeline, our cost of placement of product comes down. It becomes beneficial on that.
So, sir, in the pipeline, gas pipeline, there is an integrated concept of the integrated tariff. All pipeline tariff are blended for single tariff for the customers. So is it also your case also that your all pipelines will be clustered or individually each pipeline tariff will be decided?
Notified. If you see the notification, they have classified there. There are pipelines where it has been bid. So for the first 10 years, that bid rate would be there. After that, they will be fixing up the tariff considering the NFA and the future considering the DPF methodology, they will be fixing up the tariff. So when the final details come up, we'll let you know. We get the final details of it.
Yeah. That's all my answer. Thanks for it.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vipul Kumar Anup Chand Shah from Sumangal Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, is it possible to share our Lube in the Lube quantity in liters and what is the EBITDA we are making from that business?
The total lube which we have sold in this quarter is around 150, more than 150 TMT. Our yearly target is between 700-750 TMT in this year. And EBITDA and all, right now, we'll not be disclosing. But we have said that the yearly EBITDA is around INR 1,000 crore for us in the past.
1,000 crore per annum?
Yeah.
Sir, this means 155 TMT should be equal to how many liters? Can you give any clarity regarding that?
Into 1,000.
Okay, sir.
10,000, sorry. And to it you add six zeros to that.
Sorry? 6 zeros to that. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of S. Ramesh from Nirmal Bang Equities. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you very much. The first thought is if you were to add back the LPG under recovery, your EBITDA goes up to INR 4,400 crore. Given that refining margin is down, can you explain how you have achieved this sort of EBITDA if you were to ignore the LPG under recovery provision?
Just come again.
So if you look at your reported EBITDA at INR 2,100 crores, which includes the hit of INR 2,300 crores for LPG under recovery, right? So we add back that to the EBITDA. Your marketing EBITDA is about INR 3,600 crores. Your refining is about INR 800-900 crores. So where have you achieved this growth in your EBITDA if you were to add back the LPG under recovery?
We are getting higher EBITDA on marketing. If you see the growth, we are going at the rate of, say, 5%-6% in marketing. Even our crude throughput has increased compared to last year. Consistently, for the past two years, the crude throughput is also going up. Now, because of this reduction in GRMs this year, the marketing, the refining contribution is less. Otherwise, the EBITDA used to be much more than what you have been referring to.
Yeah. So the question is, in marketing EBITDA, if you were to account for the reduction in refining EBITDA, where have you seen the growth in marketing EBITDA? That's what we are trying to understand.
I'm saying we have not shared the marketing EBITDA numbers. We have not shared, but that can be attributed to increase in our market sales, increase in sales in all the products in terms of MS, HSD, ATF, lubricants, LPG, except, I think, NAFTA. All other products, we have grown substantially higher than other OMCs and almost in line with the industry. That's to try to clear. So that is one factor which can be attributed. But individual numbers, we have not talked about so far in terms of financial numbers.
Okay. Second thought is if you look at the outlook for refining and crack spreads, so is there any impact on diesel margin because of this movement of, say, high sulfur fuel oil for the maritime demand? And how do you see that changing if the high sulfur fuel oil usage in maritime demand goes up? And how do you see that? And overall, what will be the drivers for petrol and diesel cracks in the coming quarters? Do you see fundamental demand for petrol and diesel going up, or would they still be constrained by the excess supply, particularly the slowdown in China?
Yeah. See, right now, the reasons being attributed for this softness is the slowdown in China and all. But 2 days back, for the same reason, it was going up. So these things will keep on changing. But the fact remains, the Indian demand is quite robust. The Indian demand for both HSD and MS is increasing. If you see, the MS growth is more than around 7%. The HSD is also 1.5%-2%, which is continuously happening. And that is the reason why domestic new capacities are also coming up. So I see that with the current set of demand, the way it is increasing, the outlook for India is going to be positive. The GRMs are going to be in the range of $5-$8 a barrel. And that is what the various agencies also are saying.
The forecast analysis also that the GRMs and all would remain firm as regards the balance period of this year.
With respect to the HSFO demand variation and relation to diesel, our diesel demand is not dependent on HSFO demand or any primary demand. That is irrespective of it. And whatever fuel oil demand is there, that is met from actual fuel oil production without affecting any of the diesel production.
Okay. So now, if you look at the impact on consolidated earnings, say, for FY 2026-2027, in your ramp-up phase, should we expect any loss at EBITDA or at EBIT level as you commission the assets on a consolidated basis, say, from FY 2026 first quarter? And when do you see the HPCL LNG and the JV accounting of Rajasthan Refinery actually adding to your EBITDA and EBIT over, say, FY 2026?
Yeah. As we have explained, that as far as Chhara is concerned, we are going to commission that in this calendar year by this calendar year end. So maybe as we go forward, once it stabilizes, we would start seeing those results. As far as Barmer is concerned, which is a joint venture between us and the Rajasthan government, as I had mentioned, that by this financial year end, we would be commissioning our refining portion. And once that is commissioned, we have also, as earlier calls, we had said that in terms of our crude procurement for the year, we have also taken that last quarter, what kind of crude would be required. So that we have factored in already. And as we go forward, we will start seeing this same post-stabilization.
Now, refinery would appreciate that once it is fully stabilized and commissioned, we will start seeing the results immediately because the product requirement, which is there, the demand which is there, it is quite robust. So it will happen, unlike in other products, this would happen straight away from the day zero.
Okay. In your HMEL refinery in the first quarter, has petrochemicals contributed anything to the profits? Or is there still a loss because petrochemical margins have?
No, it has contributed positive.
It has contributed positive.
Okay. Thank you very much, and wish you all the best.
Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vishnu Kumar from Avendus Sp ark. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you. Thanks, sir. Sir, I'm going to the previous caller's question again on the marketing side. As always, we all compute the numbers quarter-on-quarter, and we take your thoughts that you said on the volume growth. But when we look at the add the INR 2,400 crore of LPG plus INR 250 crore of inventory loss, and also considering the fact that this quarter, the diesel margins probably are slightly lower than last quarter, there seems to be a large delta quarter-on-quarter. So is it because of any particular other products have done well or what seems to be quarter-on-quarter-wise, it seems to be a little large?
No, no. There are no extraneous entries which have gone into this quarter that way. What we can do is we can, in the sideline, discuss the numbers, what you have factored and what is it?
There appears to be some kind of clarification which is required. So what I would request you is, if you can come across, we can share this because as of now, we have not taken any other extraneous factor into account. Probably we'll be able to explain to you in greater detail once we sit across. And so you're most welcome, or you or anybody else also is most welcome. We can sit across and sort this out. We can explain to you, transparently share this with you. Okay?
Sir, we'll reach out later on this. Sir, secondly, on the pipeline EBITDA, if you could probably help us understand, what would that quantum be inside the marketing or roughly, let's say, at the transfer pricing cost, if there is some internal number that we have kept, and if you could help us understand that.
No. See, we had already stated earlier that for us, HPCL, the pipeline is a mode, a carrier for us for transshipping the product. So we view it more from a cost perspective as to what is it or what cost benefits it can bring in that system. We are not doing any transfer pricing right now for the pipeline in our system.
Got it. Sir, and you were mentioning that.
It's primarily because most of the pipelines are utilized for transporting our products. We see this as an alternate and effective method of our primary distribution, logistics, and things like that. Therefore, this is taken as a cost center.
Understood, sir. But when you mentioned in the previous caller questions on the PNGRB increase, if any, would it be allowed as a pass-through in your RTP finally? I mean, in the retail price, can you pass it on, let's say, if you see some increase, or that is a separate point and you cannot increase it?
Yeah.
Let's say it's PNGRB.
Emerge as we go forward because those would require some other factors consideration. So right now, that is work in progress. So let more details emerge, then we will be able to answer and address that. Okay.
Understood. And just on the final question on the Bathinda refinery, the petrochemical number is included in the GRM, or is it a separate number?
It's included.
It is included. What will be the current debt at HMEL?
It's around INR 34-35 ,000.
Thank you. Thanks a lot, sir. All the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sabri Hazarika from Emkay Global. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good afternoon, sir. So I have three questions. First question is this: for INR 30,000 crore EBITDA target that you have by FY 2028, so is it standalone or consolidated?
It's consolidated.
Okay. It's consolidated. Currently, if I add back the LPG under recovery and the inventory losses, so we are at a sort of like INR 18,000-INR 20,000 crore kind of run rate. So is it the, I mean, everything remaining constant, is it the kind of run rate which is sustainable? And of course, on top of that, probably some more numbers will come from the Visakh stabilization. Is it the right way to look into it if I want to?
Right. The Visakh stabilization is going to add a lot of value to us. One is in terms of increased throughput. One is first reaching the 15 million tons. Then we can further increase the capacity over there in the near future to a small CapEx plan. We can increase the capacity by almost 2 million metric tons over there. Then the Rajasthan refinery product would come. The petrochemicals would come out.
That would be marketed by us. HSEPL would start contributing. And even the other JVs where CGD network and other things have been put up, that there again, where we have already spent and invested more than INR 3,000 crore, and in the next two, three years, those will also get matured and start contributing. So on a consolidated level, all these things are likely to take the EBITDA to almost INR 40,000 crore, more than INR 40,000 crore.
Okay. And your CapEx will be something like INR 14,000 crore-INR 15,000 crore, is that right, for the next 3-4 years?
Yeah. Yeah. And as we had explained earlier, I mean, this is for the benefit of all of us that we had said that to achieve that target and to achieve that vision which we have got, we have got all the fundamentals and building blocks in place, both in terms of quality of our assets, that is, in our refinery, in terms of our bottom upgrading, in terms of capacity of our assets, in terms of Mumbai Refinery reaching 10 million tons, Vizag reaching 15+ million tons, our HRRL 9 million tons. So we will have substantial improvement in terms of capacity, in terms of quality of our assets, and the other advantages in terms of our gas terminal, in terms of our petrochemical play, in terms of our biofuels play, and also in terms of our renewable and our biofuels and biogas.
So all these are fundamental building blocks which are already in place. Substantial progress has been made. So therefore, whatever we have stated and we have been maintaining, we are very confident that we'll be able to achieve this. Thank you.
Right. Just a small follow-up. So if I assume that the standalone numbers basically, let's assume that around INR 20,000 crore EBITDA you are making, INR 14,000-INR 15,000 crore of CapEx is there. So how do you think that debt will move? I mean, if I include the tax and all, do you think, I mean, in the current level of, say, around INR 50,000-INR 51,000 crore debt, there will be a deleveraging, or will stay at this level only, and our ratios will basically improve rather than absolute debt going down?
Yeah. One is the leveraging part. The debt equity will be improving. Most of the investments which are going to happen would happen out of internal generation. So there's no intent plan to add on to the debt at the levels which we have.
Probably it will remain at this level, but not add any more.
Ratios will improve. Ratios will improve.
But the ratios will improve. Last two small questions. Firstly, green hydrogen, how much cost are you getting right now for producing this? Or is it too early to say right now?
Right now, what we have done is a pilot project, your first project. So this depends on the power what we get, green power what we get from the grid.
Right. So.
It's about twice than what we are actually doing through grid. As the power cost comes down, then it will further come down.
Right. And last small conceptual question. If my pipeline tariff were to be set using DCF for newer pipelines, so that would be higher than the older pipelines. If this is like 17% hike, which PNGRB must have calculated, so the DCF will always be more than 17%, right? Or since it involves substantial CapEx?
As we have mentioned, these details have to emerge because if you explain that there are some pipelines which were done pre-PNGRB period, there are some captive pipelines, there are some pipelines which are in the third category which will come. So all that has to be consolidated. And I'm afraid right now, we are not able to give you a very specific listing because the picture is not clear right now.
So conceptually, a NEWA pipeline will have a higher rate than an older pipeline. Is that right?
I mean, that's going by the notification or the English which is stated there, what you are saying is right. But that primarily applies to a pipeline which is totally on.
Open access. Yeah. Yeah.
On open access. But in our case, as Chairman has already stated, these are pipelines emanate from our refineries, and these have been set up primarily to evacuate the refineries. So now, for us, these are integral part of the existing company. If we set up a new company and put the pipelines in that and then straight away, we can apply the principle that anyone, whoever is a user of this facility, would be paying you that charge. But if you see, most of the cases, all the OMCs have the pipelines emanating from their refineries.
Right. Right.
They will only be the users. It doesn't make much difference to us in terms of calculating the revised tariffs because these are most mainly for evacuating the product or placing the product from our refineries to the secondary pricing points.
Got it, sir. Thank you so much for this explanation. Yeah. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take that as the last question. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Vaidyanathan Rangan for closing comments.
Thank you, Seju. Sir, if you have any closing comments, please go ahead.
No. Thanks a lot. As we have indicated, if there are some more specific details which are required, so any one of you is most welcome to visit and connect with Mr. Vinod. We'll be very happy to provide the details. Thank you very much.
Thank you, sir. I wish to thank all the participants for taking time out to participate in the call. I wish to thank the management for giving us the opportunity to hold the call, as well as sharing all the details in an exhaustive manner with all the investors. I wish to specifically thank Mr. Joshi for the initiatives he has taken in terms of investor outreach, and especially given the fact that he is going to retire next month. Thanks a lot, sir, for all the support, and wish you all the best.
Thank you very much. I really appreciate that. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you, brother.
Thanks. Thanks. Bye.
On behalf of Antique Stock Broking, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.