Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Jindal Stainless Ltd FY 2025 Earnings Conference Call, hosted by JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ashutosh Somani from JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thanks, operator, and welcome everyone to the call. I'll first thank Jindal Stainless for giving JM Financial the opportunity to host today's call. Without much ado, I'll hand over the call to Shreya Sharma, Head of Investor Relations, Jindal Stainless, to introduce the management. Over to you, Shreya.
Thank you, Ashutosh. Good evening, everyone, and a warm welcome on FY 2025 and full-year earnings call. From the management team, we have with us Mr. Abhyuday Jindal, Managing Director, and Mr. Tarun Khulbe, CEO and Holding Director. We have shared our FY 2025 earnings presentation with the stock exchanges, which is also available on our company's website, and today's call discussion will be on the same lines. Please note some of the information on this call may be forward-looking in nature and is covered by the disclaimer on slide 2 of the earnings presentation. Now, I would like to hand it over to our Managing Director, Mr. Abhyuday Jindal. Over to you, sir.
Thank you. Thank you, Shreya, and good evening to everyone, and welcome to the FY 2025 earnings call. I would first like to discuss the key business highlights for the quarter ending March 2025, following which Mr. Khulbe will take you through our operational and financial performance. As we reflect on the economic landscape, India continues to demonstrate strong resilience and growth momentum. As we know, IMF has recently projected India's GDP growth at 6.2% for 2025. This positive outlook provides a significant advantage to the stainless steel sector, which is closely correlated with GDP growth. Building on this momentum, sales volume FY 2025 grew by 9% on a year-on-year basis, supported mainly by strong domestic demand given by the railway sector, automotive industry, infra, and strategic projects in oil and gas, power, and other industrial sectors.
We are also witnessing robust demand in the pipe and tube segment, with our branding initiative of Jindal Saathi playing a pivotal role in driving growth and improving our market share. On the global front, though the uncertainties prevail, the outlook remains directionally positive, as now there is a level playing field to export in the U.S. market with better parity on the duty front, which is expected to support our competitive positioning. Additionally, we are seeing signs of recovery across Europe. While Germany is currently experiencing some challenges, we expect a positive turnaround supported by fiscal stimulus measures. We are also continually exploring new markets and actively expanding our presence in key regions such as Japan, South Korea, and the Middle East, to name a few. I'm also happy to share that we have acquired a 9.62% stake in M1 Exchange. This is India's leading RBI-licensed trading platform.
This investment is expected to create strong synergies by digitizing the supply chain ecosystem and reducing the working capital cycle, paving the way for cheaper credit access for our entire global value chain, including the deep-tier channels. On the ESG front, I'm happy to share that we now host the largest captive solar plant in the state of Odisha, with a cumulative capacity of over 30 MW. This initiative will reduce our CO2 emissions by 32,000 metric tons per annum, substantially lowering the facility's reliance on conventional grid electricity. We also signed an 11 MW long-term power purchase agreement for our subsidiary, JSL Super Steel, with Sunsure Energy to achieve our net-zero targets. On the group level, currently, 11% of our group's power consumption is met through renewable sources.
With the commissioning of all our announced renewable projects, this share is expected to rise significantly to around 30%-35%, marking a major step forward in our sustainable journey. With this, I would like to hand over to Mr. Khulbe to discuss our operational and financial performance. Thank you.
Good day, everyone. Thank you, Abhyuday. Good day, everyone. Welcome to the call. I would like to begin by providing a detailed overview of our operational and financial performance, starting with the quarterly results, followed by the full-year highlights. We delivered record sales on a sequential basis to 642,641 metric tons in Q4, an increase of 13% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter on the back of robust domestic demand. Our Q4 EBITDA stood at INR 1,061 crore, affected by unfavorable global economic conditions leading to stainless steel pricing pressure and negative inventory valuation. FY 2025, we delivered our highest-ever sales volume, an increase of 9% on a year-on-year basis, despite our exports falling 24% during the period, showcasing robustness in domestic demand for stainless steel. Our EBITDA stood at INR 4,667 crore.
On the balance sheet side, FY 2025 being the year of significant investment, with around INR 4,570 crore spent on the acquisition and CapEx, we successfully maintained our net debt at INR 4,005 crore, in line with March 2024. This reflects our continued focus on working capital optimization and preserving a strong balance sheet. We believe this positions us well in navigating the current global macroeconomic challenges. On the leverage side, we are comfortably placed with net debt to EBITDA below 1 at 0.86. I would like to inform you that as part of JCL's recent buyback offer of 21.13% for INR 158.40 crore, along with the earlier stake sale of 4.87% in 2024, JSL has now fully exited its 26% holding in JCL. This complete divestment has yielded a total consideration of INR 194.89 crore.
I would like to inform that the Board of Directors has approved a final dividend payment of INR 2 for FY 2025, taking total dividend payment FY 2025 to INR 3, which is 150% per equity share with a face value of INR 2 each. Furthermore, to optimize cash flows at the group level during FY 2025, JUSL declared a dividend of INR 245 crore to JSL. This brings my remarks to a close. I would now like to hand it over to the moderator to begin the question and answer session.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Amit Dixit from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Good evening, everyone, and thanks for the opportunity. Congratulations for a good performance under very challenging circumstances. A couple of questions. The first one is on EBITDA pattern. Now, in Q4, we saw EBITDA pattern dropping below INR 14,000 crore after quite a few quarters, actually quite many quarters. I just wanted to understand the profitability trajectory from here because export sales do not seem to be going up as a percentage of overall, and other conditions possibly remain similar. How do we see EBITDA pattern trajectory going from here, and what would be the guidance FY 2026? That is my first question.
Thank you. Thank you, Amrit. I'll take the first question. We're already seeing some improvement in our EBITDA pattern margin in Q1 FY 2026. Overall, now we're getting a consolidated guidance for the entire year between INR 19,000 crore-21,000 crore EBITDA pattern. Definitely, like you're saying, we are seeing some improvement signs in export. Even though we are announcing a 10% export volume, this is at a higher base. Compared to last financial year, we're hopeful that we should get at least a 25%-30% growth in our export.
Okay. That's great. The second one is essentially recently we signed an MOU with the government of Maharashtra for a considerable investment over here. Now, we do have spare land at Chromeni as well. So just wanted to understand, are we still evaluating both the options, or do we plan to expand at both these locations? I mean, how is it going to be in the future?
Mr. Khulbe, would you like to take this up, and I'll add on?
Sure. Actually, we are constantly looking at our future growth because our land availability at both the plants gradually is coming to complete utilization. We are looking for long-term growth, and definitely, we have evaluated all this. Eventually, we have found that Maharashtra is one of our major markets. Also, looking at the kind of support and the conditions which we believe are quite favorable to the industry, we feel that for our next larger growth plant, Maharashtra is something we have zeroed on. Chromeni land, we will keep on evaluating for other possibilities as and when they arrive, and then we will make our decision accordingly.
Yes, absolutely. Like Mr. Khulbe said, we definitely are evaluating both states in absolute detail. As of now, Maharashtra is a state that is giving us more support, more incentives. Our customer base is the biggest, so we will be very close to the customer. From all sets and purposes, Maharashtra is looking like the one that we are going to take forward. Like we mentioned, this is a little long-term project for us, and we will be taking it in that manner only.
The ultimate capacity of this plant that would be set up in Maharashtra, would it be similar to Jajpur? Is it fair to assume that?
It will be bigger. It will be we're looking at close to almost 4 million tons, but over a period of 15 years, as you say.
Okay. So 4 million tons over a period of 15 years?
Yes.
Okay. Great. Thank you so much, and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Rajesh Majumdar from B&K Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening, sir, and thanks for the opportunity. Sir, just on the EBITDA pattern, if I were to ask you a question, that this figure of INR 19,000 crore-INR 21,000 crore is a standalone figure, right? Not including JUSL.
No, it's a consolidated, taking JUSL, Chromeni, everything combined. Now we would like to give a consolidated figure.
Okay. So it's a consolidated figure. Okay. And sir, how sure are we of this? Because earlier we had guided a range of INR 18,000 crore-INR 20,000 crore, and more or less we were following that number for the last three quarters, and then suddenly we dropped to INR 13,800 crore. Would you say Q4 was a freak quarter, and if so, for what reason specifically? If you could give us some kind of clarity on that.
Q4 definitely was one of the lowest EBITDA patterns that we have witnessed in the last multiple quarters, actually. There were two, three factors to that. One thing is that we saw dip in nickel prices. Generally, when that happens, there are always some ripple effects, and it takes time to pass it back on to the customer, which is an inventory kind of hit we need to take. Secondly, that was the same time when this whole trade uncertainty started with Mr. Trump taking over. A lot of our booking exports were put under pressure or on hold, so we had to push more volumes into the domestic market.
Like we mentioned, we can definitely cater more and more to the domestic market, and we can take a bigger share, but then we'll have to drop our margin a little bit. We did give a substantial volume growth in Q4. It is the highest sales that we have done, but that put a little pressure on our margins. Like we said already, in Q1, we are seeing the recovery happen. We're seeing our export bookings also picking up, better margins picking up, which is why we are quite confident of this INR 19,000 crore- INR 21,000 crore for this financial year. Mr. Khulbe, anything to add?
Yes, sir. I'm just adding to that. Absolutely, while you have totally answered it. Just to add that as we could have seen that even from Q3 onwards, the nickel in various forms, the prices had started falling. Normally, while this nickel volatility, we are able to pass on to the customers, but with some lag is what has happened. Definitely, the uncertainty of those various policies and then coupled with all these pricing pressure, all that definitely puts pressure on our pricing. At the same time, we did our best-ever quarterly sales, 13% on a sequential quarter basis. We made the highest-ever sales. I think these factors together led to this lower EBITDA pattern. Yes, here onwards, because we believe that the way we see the thing, the debt has settled down globally also. The export market also, we can see.
In fact, now we are finding ourselves in a better position because with the clarity of Trump tariffs, so-called, we are finding that as a country, we are now in a better position. Earlier, our competing countries like South Korea, Japan, EU, they were not having that 25% of tariffs, which India was having, but now all of us are having the same tariffs, and that also is helping us in increasing our volume and gaining a better share in the American market, as well as even in Europe, we see some better actions. Coupled all these things put together, we believe that our margin should be better than the Q4 going forward. Whatever the guidance we are providing, that is the basis of our confidence.
Right, sir. My second question is on your balance sheet. I think your debt levels are pretty low given the fact that you had substantial CapEx as well as payments towards investments last year. My question is, is the investment in the Indonesian subsidiaries still pending? If so, how much? What is the CapEx left in India for this financial year?
On this, actually, on the higher levels, like for the net debt being lower, two major factors or three major factors, I'll say. One, yes, we had given the guidance that we'll be making a CapEx of INR 5,500 crore, which the actual number is INR 4,570 crore because there is some spillover. That spillover will come in this year. That is one. Another factor is that INR 152 crore we also gained by selling the JCL, by the divestment of JCL shares. Then we also released some working capital by some better management. All these factors put together, we are able to reduce the net debt.
On your second question, the Indonesian investment, I believe you're talking about the JV for SMS operations. Over here, half of the payment has already been released in this FY 2025 financial year, and the balance half we expect to release in this FY 2026. Yeah.
As per plan.
That is something which is going as per the plan, and the project is also progressing as per the plan.
Right. And just to.
Yeah.
FY 2026 is going to be around INR 27,000 crore-INR 28,000 crore.
Including investments, right? Including investments.
Correct.
Not the capital.
Yeah. That includes our investment. Yeah. Basically, the INR 5,500 crore, it includes both investments on account of acquisitions that we have done or we have announced in FY 2025 and plus the CapEx which was there, including the maintenance within CapEx as well.
Right. Just a bookkeeping question. There is a loan received back from related parties of INR 1,070 or so. Is this from JPL or what is it?
No. Basically, this is something to do with the, actually, we are unwinding the transaction that we have done with Evergrade. Earlier, if you noticed, in the beginning, when we acquired the Chromeni, it was routed through Evergrade and the funds. It is just the unwinding of transaction that we are doing in that space just for the better overall tax management.
Thank you.
Yeah.
Thank you.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Parthiv from Anand Rathi. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. My first question is pertaining to nickel. If you see over the last couple of quarters, right? And even if you see the global data, the nickel has been at a bit of an oversupply globally, right? Even if you see at the warehouses, the inventory is still holding up at an elevated level compared to the other non-ferrous at the end of the day. I just wanted to know what is your guidance, especially on the nickel pricing for the current FY, if you can guide something, because nickel has been one of the, has been a laggard compared to its other non-ferrous actually.
Okay. Okay, sir. See, nickel definitely, as you said, that supply and demand, yeah, there is always, particularly in the NPI form, that situation is there. It definitely puts pressure on the nickel pricing and NPI pricing as well. At the same time, predicting what prices it would go is a bit difficult because ultimately, it is a commodity. What we see is that the kind of pricing the nickel is maintaining, when it goes below this, our understanding is that it is bringing a lot of pressure on the NPI producers. As we have seen, many of the NPI producers have closed their plants because they could not sustain that pressure. The good thing is that in Indonesia, the efficiency or the cost of production of the nickel is one of the lowest.
Our partners are also one of the most, having one of the best efficiencies in the world. We believe that we still are able to, or rather, I'll say that our cost will be the least affected. Affect would be there, but eventually, to predict the price is a difficult thing, but looks like to be bottomed out kind of a thing. From here onwards, there can remain some fluctuation or volatility, but let's see. Do you have something?
If I can further add, the reason that we went to Indonesia for nickel pig iron was the main reason was raw material security. If you see globally now with all this protectionism happening with CBAN and ESG taking such a front, and we were always a scrap-dependent player. We saw that certain countries have started banning scrap or protecting their materials. Being a 3 million ton player, going to 4 versus then our expansion, we definitely needed some nickel security. Indonesia as a country had also started banning nickel ore export. That is the main reason that we went to Indonesia.
Thank you for the elaborate response, sir. My second question is pertaining to your three entities, what you have acquired over the last couple of quarters, that is Chromeni, Rathi, and Rabirun, right?
I believe Chromeni has already started its operations. Just wanted to know what exactly is the capacity utilization and when can you expect a complete ramp-up? As far as Rathi, as I'm concerned, I believe there were some issues. I think the production was not yet started, right? If I'm not wrong, right? We just wanted to get a clarity on it. My last question, if I may squeeze, is just pertaining to the ratio between 200, 300, and 400 for the current quarter.
On Chromeni.
Yeah.
On Cromeni, what I can tell you is that when we took over this plant, this plant was closed for almost four years. Within six months of our taking over, we are able to start the plant. Within three, four months of now operation, we started it from December onwards. We are already hitting it or running it or hitting the capacity utilization of, say, around 55-60%. We believe by the Q3, Q4 of FY 2026, I think we should be around 70-75% of capacity utilization. That is on Chromeni.
What is the other one?
Rabirun
On Rabirun as strategically, we are using right now that plant more of value-added product. We have some polishing lines there. So we are creating or we are producing value-added products. Yet, pipe and tubes, we are not producing over there. Strategically, I mean, we have that call we have taken. So we are focusing more on producing the value-added products from there. Rathi, again, we are running and now around 75% of capacity utilization. We are able to run that plant also at that level. In that plant, we are focusing and gradually increasing our rebar, stainless steel rebar production from there.
Okay. And just my last.
Yeah. Because this stainless steel rebar, gradually we are finding, and particularly in coastal regions and all, this acceptance and demand is there in the infra projects.
All right, sir. If you can quickly get back on the 200, 300, and 400 series breakup for the quarter.
Yeah. Parthib, I'll change the sequence of 200, 300, and 400 series. For the quarter, it was 37%, 47%, and 16%. And yeah.
Perfect. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec India. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, I think you indicated INR 19,000 crore-21,000 crore of consolidable EBITDA pattern guidance. Is my reading right?
Yes.
Great. Sir, what will be the proportionate volume growth that we are looking at FY 2026? And if any color on 2027 as well?
We're quite comfortable of 9-10% volume growth for FY 2026.
Okay. This is lower than what historically we have indicated on the guidance. Is it more to do with the macro or are there any other variables that we are looking that it plays out or any specific large orders that you would like to highlight?
No, it's more on the macros. As more clarity comes in the global trade scenario, I think we can definitely come with a higher guidance. I think 9-10%, we're quite comfortable. Mr. Khulbe, would you like to add something?
I think this is what at this stage, this is what the guidance we are providing.
Sure. Can you highlight CapEx guidance for 2026 and 2027, and if you could provide a broad split over there?
Yeah. Shreya?
FY 2026, the CapEx guidance we are providing is around INR 2,700 crore.
Ritesh, there is no new CapEx which is added in this INR 2,700 crore. What has happened in FY 2025, there are certain CapEx which we are moving in which are getting spillover FY 2026. Those CapEx plus what was already announced when we came up with the larger INR 5,700 crore plan. Put together both the amount, it is somewhere around INR 2,700 crore spend that we see for FY 2026.
Sure. Would it be possible for you to detail the rationale behind the recent acquisitions, the smaller ones that we have done, specifically on the tech side?
Okay. Yeah, I can take that up. This is actually a very interesting and a very, I would say, good step taken by us. The basic idea is to reduce our working capital burden by providing more credit to our customers, not directly, but through this platform. That was the basic idea to get closer to the larger customers, larger supplier base, also go directly, let's say, to the source of supply and provide credit to them, provide this facility to them so that we get some benefit in terms of pricing. Also, we are able to expand our reach. We are quite bullish and quite excited about this acquisition, actually. I mean, investment.
Sure. Just last follow-up on working capital, what you indicated, possible to quantify what sort of advantage that we'll get out of it over two years, three years? Secondly, on the reported numbers, payable days have also increased substantially. Is there any one-off over there, or is this structurally a number that we should be looking at?
Shreya, can you take this one up?
Is your question linked to the what is the advantage that we are going to get with this Mynd Solutions acquisition?
Yeah, that is one. Secondly, on the reported numbers, payable days have increased. Is there a one-off, or is it something different which has happened this time around?
Yeah, sure. I'll take the first one first. Basically, with the acquisition of Mynd Solutions, this is going to support our working capital reduction in a way because as we are growing on the volume side, we are also targeting our customers, which are OEMs and the direct, more direct sales to the deep tier market. There, it is going to support the overall working capital and whatever is the utilization rate today because it also goes into the vendor financing and the customer financing. It is going to overall improve the working capital situation for the company at the group level. I hope that helps you understand.
The increase in payable days from 2024 to 2025?
There is also on the working capital side, internally, we are doing some changes for the better optimization of the working capital. There are certain advance payments that we used to do to the vendors. Now we have moved it on to LC payments. That is also one of the reasons for the increase in payable days that you see.
FY 2027 CapEx number? I'll just run back the queue after this.
CapEx number FY 2027, it will also some part of it depend on how much is going to be spent FY 2026. I think the more clarity when we get by middle of the financial year, we will provide you the number for 2027 as well.
Sure. I'll run back the queue. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Ritwik Sheth from One Up Financials. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Good evening, sir. Sir, just a couple of questions. Sir, first of all, have you done any representation with the government for the high amount of imports in the stainless steel in the country? Would you like to comment on this?
No, absolutely. This dialogue is continuously on with the government. Even in our last call, I mentioned that the government is definitely receptive to the fact that globally there is a lot of protectionism going on. India as a country is relatively open and growing. There is definitely threat to injury. One thing that we discussed, and with our data and everything, is that safeguard was not the right step to take for stainless steel. A, it is short-term in nature, and the data was not supporting the safeguard implementation. Now what we are working with the government on is actually anti-dumping duty for stainless steel, where according to them, we are quite confident that this can sail through. We are just currently, I would say, collating the data, and we'll be applying for it within this month, hopefully.
Okay. What would be a reasonable response time that you would expect? Because last call, you had mentioned that we are running behind the steel industry by a month.
That was for safeguard.
That was an initial fact. That was for safeguard, and then we went and had a discussion with DCPR, which they then recognized after that that that's a platform we can play. That is why I'm saying with the data collection being worked upon right now as we speak. Hopefully within the end of this month, we should apply.
Okay. And say three months would be a reasonable time to get some response from the government?
That is then on the government, to be honest. You can take maybe three to six months. Definitely, we should get some provisional duty.
Okay.
We will definitely be pushing and making all efforts on our side.
Got it. Got it. The second question is on the CapEx commissioning update for the Indonesia JV and the Jajpur downstream capacity. Is it on schedule to be completed by end of next year?
Yes. Indonesia.
One year from today.
Indonesia SMS JV will definitely come up by mid of next year. Also, our downstream capacity also by end of Mr. Khulbe, mid of next year to end of next year?
Yes, sir. Yes, sir. That is what we are targeting.
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Okay. Sure. Sir, just a hypothetical question. We have slightly reduced our ability pattern range given the macro environment. Just in case this input, the anti-dumping duty is laid on stainless steel, would the volume increase for us?
The margin would. Yes, volume and margin would increase for us.
Okay.
Okay. So that would.
Okay.
Got it.
Yeah.
This is your very last concern.
Absolutely.
Right. Okay. Okay. Thank you, sir. And all the best .
Thank you.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Tushar Chaudhary from Prabhudas Lilladher. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks a lot, sir, for the opportunity. Sir, in this quarter, if I look at your numbers, is there any one-off in other expenses or any of the expenses? Why I'm asking is basically ferrochrome prices have also come off. Nickel and stainless steel were largely, nickel has fallen on a quarter-on-quarter basis, but on a year-on-year basis, it is largely stable. I mean, flattish. Why the decline in EBITDA pattern? Last year, we had given the, basically, there was impact of negative inventory valuation also, as well as impact of Red Sea event. Was there anything this quarter?
Like you mentioned, you mentioned this yourself, quarter-on-quarter, there has been a dip in nickel prices. That is why Q4 was a little dampened. Mr. Khulbe, you were saying something.
No, no, sir. I think in the initial questions also, we explained that there was a pricing pressure for different reasons on stainless steel, and that is what pushed our ability pattern.
If I repeat one word on the nickel, like you mentioned already, quarter-on-quarter, there was a dip. Secondly, it is that because Mr. Trump had come in at the same time, beginning January 3rd, and made those announcements, that put the global trade supply into a bit of a confusion, tailspin. Everyone was waiting and watching what was going to happen. Despite that, we pushed volume into the domestic market. As always, when we put more and more into the domestic market, we have to enter into the low margin sectors because already the high margin, high-quality sectors, we already have a majority market share. Those are the two main factors that led to a drop in our ability pattern margin, which already Q1, we've seen that recovery.
Okay. Okay. And sir, I missed your first this thing also. You were saying regarding exports, it should grow by 25% in FY 2026. That's what you said.
Yes. Over last year, over last year's export volume.
FY 2025. Do you expect domestic to slow down because?
No, not at all. Again, the idea is always to maximize ability. If export is giving us better margins, then I do not need to enter those low margin sectors into the domestic market. You understand? That is why we will give a little more capacity to export if we are getting better margins there. Domestic market in India is definitely the fastest growing market, growing at 10-12%, which is exactly why we are planning our next round of expansion in Maharashtra.
Just to add, sir, Tushar, as Mr. Jindal said, we are definitely aiming at this export market. At the same time, we are not ignoring the domestic one. In the export, while we are aiming it, we are very much aware of the fact that globally the situations also change, and they are very dynamic in nature. Our objective remains this. Yes, we are alternately, we are always prepared to move in the direction where the best value is available.
Understood. Sir, last, if I could ask questions, this Maharashtra project which you are talking about, can we expect first line to in FY 2031 or something?
It's a bit long shot, but yeah, normally the greenfield project in India, in general, takes four to five years. The gestation period is there. So your guess is probably the mine guess as well.
Chromenii, we are not going to expand anywhere. Basically, on the 400 acre land which we have, that is on the back burner.
I think we have already stated that Chromeni land we have, and we are constantly evaluating as for Maharashtra project. We have already explained, and Chromeni project, as and when we get any suitable facility plan or objective, we'll do over there. At this stage, no. At this stage, Maharashtra for the larger project, Maharashtra is the place where we are working upon.
Okay. Sir, thanks a lot. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Sumangal vatia from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening. Thank you for the chance. I just missed a few details on the Maharashtra greenfield expansion project. Please excuse if it's already discussed. I just wanted to understand by when are we looking to kind of take a final call, or is it near term in next one or two quarters? It's more like towards the end of FY 2026. Also, I wanted to know what is the size in the first phase and any ballpark, thumb rule you can help us with as far as the investment amount is concerned for phase I?
Okay. Just to tell you that on the Maharashtra project, normally for these kinds of projects, always the first step is to get an approval or get into an understanding with the government, which we have already done. We have signed an MOU. In a way, we have a project approval from the government that they are going to support us for this project. The next step goes is scouting for land, suitable land and all, which the process is on. Then we will start the project because in India, the land and acquisition of land also is a process which one has to go through. The second thing is that this project is going to come in phases. It is not that at one go we are going to put all the facilities.
In fact, in all our plans are to put this project into the phases like one 1 million ton at one time. That is how we plan it. I think so far as investments and those guidance is concerned, give us some more time once we start doing a bit detailing about the equipment and total facilities, which of course we have just rough working. Once we have more some detailing once we do, we will provide you that guidance as well.
Understood. And just one thing. I mean, whenever we finally decide to announce, will that be once we have the entire land in possession? Or as in when the site is identified and there is some progress on land, we will announce and gradually acquire the remaining part of the land?
We'll come at the appropriate time. I mean, this is what would be the more appropriate answer at this stage. We will come at the appropriate time and announce it.
Got it. Got it. Thank you and all the best. Thanks.
Thank you.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Kirtan Mehta from Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. Coming back to the margin drop in the Q4, we have seen the sharp drop in this Q4 as well as the last Q4. In this connection, just wanted to understand the sort of the raw material valuation policy that we use for valuing in the inventory. Is there any particular policy which impacts the cumulative impact gets recognized in Q4?
Okay. I think rather than saying it as a part of policy or all, it could be a coincidence probably, which is how we should look at this. I mean, because incidentally, in both the years, the movement of the raw material prices are a bit similar in nature, and that is why you are seeing the results similar in this. This is not something like we are creating any policy for Q4 specifically or anything of that sort. As a company, we do not do any sort of hedging. This is all back to back.
Right. Second question was about that consult guidance of INR 19,000 crore- INR 21,000 crore FY 2026. Are we assuming any benefit of the anti-dumping duty or irrespective of the anti-dumping duty, will be comfortable to deliver?
Yes, it is as thin can right now. We are quite confident of achieving 19-21. If anti-dumping or any other macroeconomic factor benefits us, we should be able to come with a higher guidance.
Sure. I mean, in terms of nickel or other variable also will be passed through because in a longer term, they really do not impact. It is only the quarterly impact that it creates, but it is more or less passed through. Even that should not have any impact.
Correct. Correct.
Yeah. Getting back on.
Sorry. Yeah. Please go ahead.
Onto the Maharashtra, basically in terms of the process-wise, the way you highlighted, it would be first would be the MOU. Second is basically the land. Third would be basically probably the environmental and other approvals. In terms of what you sort of give us a bit of a timeline when this project, when we can look at the zero-day and the specific activity towards the zero-day?
See, normally rather than just the steps, what you stated, they are absolutely correct. That for any greenfield, the first step is approval, then the land, then the environmental clearance, which you get normally on the basis of the project, whatever you plan, and then you start building up the plant. Normally this in India, in general, for our size of greenfield plant, the time is in general that the gestation period is around four to five years. That is what we are also estimating.
Sure. In terms of the project CapEx-wise, you previously said that the first phase could be a bit larger because we create the infrastructure for the entire facility. Then the second and third, where the costs are significantly lower. In that sense, could you also give us a ballpark figure for the 4 million ton and how much precentage of that would be in the first phase?
While in principle, what you are saying, we will come back with the correct details when the time is right. This is still in the planning phase, and all these details we will share openly with all our stakeholders.
Sure. Thank you. I'll get back to you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Ashish Kejriwal from Nuvama Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks, everyone. Thanks for the opportunity. A couple of questions. One, I FY 2025 is one year where we have already started our NPI project. Is it possible to share what kind of profitability we are generating over there or still it's a loss-making because it has not reached to the optimum level?
On NPI, I think we have earlier also stated that we have started the project. It is ramping up, and in the next couple of quarters, we believe that we should be reaching to the capacity utilization of, say, 75-80%. At the same time, so far as pricing is concerned, Ashish, yes, we all understand that there is a lot of volatility in the nickel. What kind of profitability and all, this also keeps on fluctuating because of this volatility. In the long run, while we are quite, we believe that this is going to be a beneficial project. At the same time, when we have invested, we also look at it as a strategic project by which we get a raw material security.
Because of this NPI investment, we are into one of the unique strong positions where we can use, because as a stainless steel producer, we need nickel. We can get nickel in the form of scrap, we can get nickel in the form of NPI, and also we can get nickel in the form of slabs in case we buy or in case we bring from our JV, which we are putting up in Indonesia. For us, this is a part of our long-term strategy, and we believe that this strategy will help the organization in the longer run because globally a lot of uncertainty is expected in the longer run, whether it is scrap or NPI or the nickel availability. NPI, in any case, this is for nickel.
Understood. So the raw material security is fine. But when we are looking at the profitability, is it possible to even share that at what nickel price we can be break-even?
Nickel price to the extent in a way you can say that if it is LME more than 14,500-15,000, then break-even kind of a thing we can expect. As I told you, Ashish, this keeps on changing because on the ore, what kind of premium is going on? On the ore, what kind of royalties can change? There are a lot of different possibilities which are remaining, and the situation is a bit dynamic.
Understood. Second question is at our Jajpur plant because if I remember correctly, this Jajpur plant initially was planned for 3.6 million ton at ultimate capacity. So my question is, is there any surplus land available at Jajpur where we can in future, if we wish, we can expand capacity either full or some part of downstream expansion or that is almost over?
Downstream, definitely we can expand, Ashish, in Jajpur, which is what we are doing next two years. After that, it will be kind of full because we also need to leave 30% of green belt. Because of that factor, land is kind of getting fully utilized in Jajpur. For downstream and for certain balancing, there is definitely availability. Maybe to set up another million ton of stainless steel, that availability is not there.
Understood. Lastly, when we are guiding for INR 19,000 crore-INR 21,000 crore, obviously we will have visibility for the first quarter that now exports are recovering and whatever we have seen in the fourth quarter, that could be one of because of inventory valuation effect and all. Do we think that the guidance with INR 19,000 crore-INR 21,000 crore we are seeing, it is visible in the first quarter itself or will it take something else which can extend it further?
Already it is visible in Q1.
Okay. So 19 is possible in Q1. And then any other thing which can lead us to take it closer to our upper end of the guidance?
Yeah. Definitely. Like if some anti-dumping duty comes in or further clarity in Trump tariffs and everything comes in, then we will come with a higher guidance, but maybe after a few more months.
Understood, sir. Understood. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. We take the last question from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec. Please go ahead.
Yeah. It's a good question. Sir, would you like to lay out standalone EBITDA guidance as well?
Ritesh, I don't know. Now, just to give that comfort in terms of we would prefer to give a consolidated. Otherwise, there was always some confusion in the market. Consolidation would be better. Anything, Shreya, Mr. Khulbe, you would like to add to this?
Yeah. Sir, the reason I ask is basically we usually end up looking at the volumes that the company gives. But incrementally, there will be volumes from Chromeni. Basically, we understand that the volumes will be rolled into CR. Likewise, it will happen for the downstream assets. Basically, it could just confuse investors and analysts. That is the specific reason why I ask for standalone because the base denominator will get larger and hence optically the number will look less on EBITDA per ton. That is why I specifically ask for standalone.
Basically, Ritesh, if you notice, many of our subsidiaries like Chromeni, NPI, they have just started, an associate like NPI. They have just started the operations. They are in a very nascent stage as of now. That's the reason why we have also decided to have FY 2026 to have a consolidated guidance as it will.
Also, because they are into the similar business, Ritesh, the material there is a transfer from one company to the other company because Chromeni is a downstream process only. In order to avoid that kind of confusion that what profit here, what profit there, it is better that we talk of the complete business process. That is why all these related business we are putting into one basket rather than talking about them separately. That is why we, in fact, from the last quarter onwards, have decided that we will discuss all these businesses together. In fact, we believe that otherwise it creates more confusion.
Sure. Just a point over here. Arithmetically, the ask on standalone will actually go larger as we ramp up the downstream and Chromeni going forward. So that was the point I was trying to lay across. Any particular update on HRAP 1.1 million ton expansion? I understand we had indicated that it stood deferred last time. Any update over here?
The project is on. The work is going on. FY 2027, will this come into the operation?
Earlier, the CapEx indicator was reduced by INR 700 crore, indicating HRAP had been deferred. Now we have indicated the CapEx for 2026 to INR 2,700 crore. What is the reason for the underlying CapEx bump if HRAP is already in progress? Are you undertaking any new projects?
Hritesh, what Mr. Khulbe is trying to say is that it is something HRAP and CRAP has been, the order booking was somewhere in the lag of around three to four to six months. Right now, since the order has been placed, the project is still on track, and we are expecting it to be commissioned in FY 2027. Like we mentioned, there is no new CapEx that we are undertaking. It's whatever CapEx for FY 2026 that we have announced of around INR 2,600-INR 2,700 crore, that is including the spillover CapEx for FY 2025 to the tune of around INR 1,100 crore and plus what was supposed to be spent in FY 2026, including the maintenance sustainance. Otherwise, there is no new project that we have added in between.
Sure. That helps. Last question. Would you like to call out for a net debt number like we did last year, and we did pretty well over there? Just from a guidance standpoint where we aspire to be end of the fiscal?
Yeah. Ritesh, net debt we are estimating in the range of around INR 3,500 crore-INR 3,700 crore at the end of FY 2026.
Sure. Thank you so much. All the very best. Thank you for the answers. Appreciate it.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in the interest of time, that was the last question. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you. I would like to thank everyone for attending this call. We are optimistic FY 2026. Globally, we are seeing encouraging signs along with recovery in stainless steel prices and raw material prices showing stability, which points to improvement going forward. The growing adoption of stainless steel in India, along with strong momentum in key sectors such as infrastructure, railways, further reinforces our confidence in the domestic growth story. I hope that we have been able to answer all your questions. Should you need any further clarification or would like to know more about the company, please feel free to contact our investor relations team, and I would be happy to meet all of you physically as well over the next few months. Thank you once again for joining.
Thank you. Thank you, everyone.
On behalf of JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.