Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to KEC International Limited Q3 FY 2026 earnings conference call. From the management we have with us today, Mr. Vimal Kejriwal, Managing Director and CEO, and Mr. Rajeev Aggarwal, CFO of our company. As a reminder, all participants line will be in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand over the conference to Mr. Vimal Kejriwal. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good evening, everyone. Welcome to the Q3 earnings call of KEC. Our apologies for a little bit late release of results because the board meeting just got over. I will start with a snapshot of our financial performance for the quarter and the nine-month period, followed by a few key business highlights. We have delivered record revenues of INR 6,001 crore for the quarter, reflecting a strong growth of 12% year-on-year, led by healthy execution momentum in our T&D business across India and international. For nine months, FY 2026, with a revenue of INR 17,116 crore, our growth stands at 14%. Aligned with our strategic focus, the T&D segment's contribution to overall revenues increased to 67%, up from 57% in nine months last year.
Our EBITDA has grown by 15% in Q3 and 22% in nine months. EBITDA margins for Q3 have increased by 20 basis points year-on-year to 7.2%, vis-à-vis 7% last year. The performance on EBITDA margin front reflects slower progress in water projects, closure costs associated with the completion and delay of RODs for metro projects, and delay in settlement of some of the claims. Notwithstanding the same, the EBITDA margins for nine months have increased by 50 basis points to 7.1%, vis-à-vis 6.6% last year. Our interest expenses as a percentage of revenue have reduced by 30 basis points in Q3 and by 40 basis points in nine months, resulting in an interest cost of 2.9% for both Q3 and nine months.
We have achieved a healthy operating PBT growth of 37% in Q3 and 53% in nine months. Operating PBT margins increased by 60 basis points in Q3 to 3.6%, vis-à-vis 3% last year, and increased by 80 basis points in nine months to 3.4%, vis-à-vis 2.6% last year. We have achieved an operating PAT of INR 171 crore in Q3 and INR 457 crore in nine months. The growth in operating PBT and PAT continue to outpace the EBITDA growth. The operating PBT and PAT numbers do not include the exceptional provision of INR 59 crore made during the quarter in line with the new labor code. In terms of order intake, we have achieved YTD order intake of INR 19,300 crore.
Notably, a substantial 70% of this order intake has been secured by our T&D business across India and the international markets. Additionally, we hold L1 positions of INR 4,500 crore, primarily in the T&D segment. We have a strong order book of INR 36,725 crore as on date, including the L1 position, our order book and L1 stands at over INR 41,000 crore. Coming to our debt levels, our net debt, including acceptances, stand at INR 6,806 crore as on 31 December, vis-à-vis INR 5,575 crore on 31 December 2024. The increase in debt level is on account of strong revenue growth, increase in strategic inventory due to benign commodity prices, muted payments in the water projects, and spillover of certain large collections which happened in the current month.
The debt levels have already come down by almost INR 300 crore in January 2026 and are expected to normalize by March 2026 end. We continue to maintain a watch on working capital and remain committed to balance sheet strengthening. Coming to specific businesses, our T&D business continues to be the primary growth driver, delivering revenues of INR 4,161 crore, a remarkable growth of 31% for the quarter. This stellar performance is backed by consistent execution across geographies. On the order intake, the business secured YTD orders of over INR 13,500 crore across India, Middle East, CIS, and the Americas. In India, several large intrastate transmission projects earlier executed by state utilities have transitioned to the TBCB route, driving heightened participation from private developers and utilities.
This shift has led to a notable increase in private sector involvement, with six new private players entering the TBCB segment during the year. As a result, the market share of private players has expanded significantly to 75% this year, compared to 45% last year. Aligned with this structural change, we continue to steadily increase our order intake from private sector clients. During the quarter, the business has secured its largest-ever order of INR 1,050 crore in India T&D, from a reputed private player for a 765 kV transmission line and a 765 by 400 kV AIS substation. In international, the business continues momentum with multiple L1 orders across the Middle East and Africa. We expect these L1s to get awarded in Q4.
In SAE, the business achieved revenues of INR 525 crore for the quarter, reflecting a robust 70% growth. During the quarter, the business secured a few large power supply orders in Mexico/U.S., signaling a clear uptick in the North American market. On a YTD basis, SAE has secured order inflows of approximately INR 1,250 crore for the supply of towers, hardware, and poles across the North America and Brazil. Consequently, the business now has a robust order book and L1 position exceeding INR 2,600 crore, providing strong revenue visibility going forward. Capacity expansion initiatives are progressing well. Following successful capacity enhancements at our plants in Dubai, Jaipur, and Jabalpur, the expansion of our Butibori facility in Nagpur is expected to be completed by March 2026. We have also invested small amounts for expanding our hardware manufacturing facilities in Brazil.
These expansions will further strengthen our ability to cater to rising demand for transmission infrastructure across domestic and international markets. The overall tender pipeline in T&D continues to be healthy in both domestic and international markets. In India, peak power demand continues to rise with record highs recently and sustained growth expected, driven by economic expansion, electrification, and changing weather patterns. With transmission increasingly emerging as a critical bottleneck amid rising grid congestion, there is a heightened policy and execution focus on strengthening transmission infrastructure. Supported by the government's emphasis on renewable evacuation corridors, green transmission, and interregional interconnections, this is translating into a robust multi-year pipeline of opportunities for the sector. I'm actually pleased to announce that yesterday we commissioned a large transmission line, Ahmedabad, Navsari, ANTL, from Ahmedabad to Navsari, a large part of it.
We also commissioned the Ahmedabad substation, and the power is flowing to Navsari substation, which has also been built by us. As of today, almost 2,600 MW of power started flowing in this line, mainly from the Khavda Renewable Energy Park. Coming to the international front, the market outlook remains strong and encouraging. The Middle East continues to be a key growth engine, with significant opportunities across Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Oman. At the same time, we are witnessing a clear pickup in opportunities across Africa and the CIS region. Africa, which experienced a slowdown post-COVID, is now seeing a gradual revival with multiple tenders coming to the market. In addition, demand across the Americas remains robust, particularly in Brazil, Mexico, and the U.S., driven by requirements for towers, hardware, and poles.
With an order book and L1 position in T&D of over INR 26,000 crore, we are confident of delivering sustained and significant growth in this business. In civil, the business continued to strengthen its order book, with multiple orders of over INR 4,000 crore in the building and factories vertical from reputed clients. During the quarter, the business has achieved success across hospitals, thermal power projects, metals and mining, and residential building segments, including an order for additional civil and structural work of 150 MW thermal power plant from a prominent private sector player, two orders from a leading steel manufacturer for execution of upstream and downstream facilities, a luxury villa development project from one of India's largest real estate developers. The business is also well-placed for securing orders for a few greenfield hospital projects.
The business delivered revenues of INR 923 crore for the quarter. The revenues could have been higher, but for labor constraints, delayed release of work front in some projects, and slower release of payments in the water projects. While the labor situation is gradually improving, it remains below optimal levels. We continue to adopt a calibrated approach to execution in water projects, given the current payment scenario in this segment. With a large order book and L1 position of over INR 10,000 crore, gradual improvement in labor availability, and expected collections from water projects, we expect that the civil business will deliver good growth in the coming quarters. The transportation business recorded revenues of INR 349 crore for the quarter.
During the quarter, the final section of the Ahmedabad Metro Phase Two, in which KEC executed the ballastless tracks, BLT works, was flagged off by the Honorable Prime Minister. The business continues to focus on the Train Collision Avoidance System, TCAS, projects under Kavach, in partnership with our JV partner. The business has successfully implemented Kavach across 611 route kilometers, and is currently deploying the Kavach system on an additional 1,836 route kilometers of the railway network. With the government's continued focus on railway safety, modernization, and indigenization initiatives such as Kavach, are expected to see wider deployment across the rail network over the medium term. We expect to secure additional orders in this segment. The business is also well-placed to secure orders in the automatic block signaling, ABS, segment that increase the railway line capacity through automation.
We are actively pursuing international opportunities, especially in the MENA region. With an order book and L1 of over INR 3,000 crore, our priorities remain clear: accelerate completion of ongoing projects, optimize working capital, and selectively bid for high-quality, margin accretive opportunities in both domestic and international markets. Our cables and conductors business has achieved healthy revenues of INR 556 crore, a strong growth of 37% year-on-year. The profitability of this business is also witnessing consistent improvement, driven by better product mix and cost optimization. Notably, it has also achieved its highest ever profitability for the 9-month period of this year. The business continues to witness steady inflow of orders for supply of cables and conductors. Our capital investment for E-beam and elastomeric cables is progressing as planned, and we expect production for elastomeric cables to commence by the end of this financial year.
Our renewable business has achieved revenues of INR 122 crore. In a significant development, the business has forayed into the wind energy segment with a breakthrough order for a 100+ MW wind project in southern India from a renowned private developer. The execution of the existing 500 MW solar projects in Karnataka and Rajasthan are progressing well towards completion within this quarter. We continue to bid for select opportunities in solar, wind, and BESS. We are well-placed to secure a few more orders in renewable in Q4. The oil and gas pipeline business has secured its third international order for a pipeline laying project in the Middle East. Given the subdued domestic tender pipeline and heightened competition, the business continues to strategically focus on expanding its global footprint.
We expect the upcoming Union Budget to introduce supportive measures that further accelerate infrastructure development, particularly in power transmission, renewables, and transportation segments. To summarize, with a strong focus on execution, expanded capacity, a robust and diversified order book and L1 of over INR 41,000 crore, and a current tender pipeline of over INR 180,000 crore, particularly in T&D and civil, we are well positioned to deliver sustained profitable growth in the coming quarters. Thank you. We are now open to take questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Balasubramanian from Arihant Capital. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. Thank you so much for the opportunity. Sir, on the transportation side-
Good evening.
If on the transportation side, we have seen pressures on the revenue side as well as the order book improves also new tech. And I just want to understand how this segment is being repositioned, and what is the strategy to regain momentum? I think earlier you've seen mentioned about focusing on technology-led projects, like Kavach, GPS, and strategically away from low margin field work. I just want to understand how the mix will change over next 3-5-year time frame. And if you could share more details about this transportation segment.
So the strategy is that we will focus on completing the existing legacy projects so that, you know, we can realize our cash flows and also the various claims which we have in the system. We have clearly defocused on the civil projects in the country because of intense competition. In some tenders, we have seen 13, in one of them, I saw 41 bids coming in. Mainly from, local, I'll say, road contractors, because of a slowdown in the, I'll say, NHAI business. So our focus has been on, as I talked about Kavach, you know, so some more orders are expected to come in Kavach, maybe within the next couple of weeks or so. Then we are focusing on, PSI, which is power supply, as well as on the automatic signaling, ABS. So the 3, 4 areas where we are working on.
On the metro side, we are looking at BLT as well as power supply and also third rail and electrification. The other piece here is on the international. We have started bidding. I'll not say aggressively, but we have started bidding, especially in the MENA region. So a couple of countries are where we have a large T&D presence and focus, are the countries where we are bidding. So, looking at the revenue and order book, we have very clearly, and I'll say it's a very conscious decision to de-grow the business for a couple of years till we get out of the old projects. This year we are, I think, L1 our orders of around INR 700 or 800 crores already. We may get a few. We are L1 in a large private sector railway starting contract also.
The focus is that we stay away from projects which require large block work or working on existing high density railway lines. We do expect that in the coming budget, there is a talk of high speed, new high speed railway corridors coming, which would be new lines and all that, not on existing, which is where you require blocks. So we are waiting and watching. We are not very aggressive on this business, at least for the next one year.
Okay, sir. Sir, currently, we are executing five HVDC projects and also one, you know, another project from the private developer. What is the total HVDC opportunities in India and internationally, and how we are going to take a leverage on that?
I don't think I have the number on what is the total opportunity as such, but there is a talk of, I think, two more HVDC projects coming in India, one in the south and one in Rajasthan. There is a large HVDC project under bidding right now in Saudi. Typically, each one of them is around INR 25,000 crore, typically. I don't know the exact value of each of this project, but they will be... So if you add three of them, they'll probably be INR 75,000 crore or more.
Okay, sir. Sir, my last question, civil-only data center pipeline is INR 2,000 crore. And how much we are bidding entire pipeline or like, what is that expected win rate and margin profile for data center projects, and how it is aligning with our bidding and strategy side? And secondly, I think we have entered wind energy with a 100+ megawatt order, and we are also bidding for solar and storage, battery storage side. And currently, the government is planning to open up with opening up for China or other countries. How this landscape is changing, especially for renewables, and how the landscape will change, especially for renewables in the next 3-5 years? Thank you.
So if you look at China, we are an EPC player, and we don't compete. No Chinese EPCs do not compete in India. We are actually happy if the government opens it up because it eases out the supply chain constraint about which I've been talking every quarter. So to me, as an EPC, I'm very happy if that happens, because today a typical substation project, which used to take 12 months or so, is now going into 18-24 months. So if things start happening, we are generally happy about it, especially on the T&D side. We don't take any module responsibility, so whether the Chinese modules, they are coming, whether they continue to come or will not have any impact as far as we are concerned.
On data center, we have executed five data centers till now, and we are actively bidding for more data centers. I think the issue in data centers, what we are finding is that most of the data center orders are getting split across, you know, various parties. So there's no, although the entire cake appears to be very big, but what comes in bids are very small slices of it. So we are looking at it and choosing and deciding what segments to play. Right now we are bidding for, in some cases for civil, in some cases for civil plus MEP. We think it is going to be an exciting sector, but as of now there have been large announcements, but all these need to get translated into hardcore tenders and all that.
Right now, there are very few tenders open in the market, but I think it will open up, so I don't think we are too much worried about it. It will grow definitely. Yeah. Thanks. Thank you.
Got it, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vaibhav Shah from JM Financial. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So firstly, on the civil side, what would be our JJM exposure right now in terms of order book and receivables?
So our total exposure in terms of order book could be roughly around INR 1,400 crores, okay? And AR would be around INR 900 crores, which was, I'll say, virtually similar to last year, except it's gone up by INR 7,500 crores or so. So as mentioned earlier, what we have been doing, Vaibhav, is that it's almost like a cash and carry. So whatever money we get, and we are exposed to 2 states only, Odisha and MP, and we've generally been getting money from both of them, not to the extent we want them to pay, but whatever they pay, that is the sort of, I'll say investment we are doing in the projects.
So, if you look at our order backlog of INR 11,000 crore from the civil segment, if I remove this INR 1,400 crore, it will be roughly around 9-9.5 thousand odd crore, if I remove the JJM part. So, is that portion, which is roughly around 10%-11% of the order book, impacting the execution so much? Or there are some other reasons as well.
It will impact, because what happens is, in the civil piece, generally the, execution cycle is pretty, pretty fast. So if, if some orders don't get, let's say, don't get kick-started early, and early part also, what happens is you do rafts and other things, so the revenues in the early part of projects are pretty high. So since some of the projects have got delayed because of non-availability of funds, it has impacted. Plus, I think I'll say INR 400-500 crore of impact would be from our, water business. So in all, if you just want to take a ballpark number, maybe civil could be probably INR 1,000 crore impact on, on the revenues in, in terms of the overall number.
Okay. So for the entire year, last year we did around INR 4,500 crore of revenue from civil. So this time, we may see a decline of roughly 15 odd %?
I don't know the exact number. There will be a marginal decline, okay? I don't think it will be a significant decline, but there could be some marginal decline.
Okay. So secondly, on the margin front, you are guiding for 100 basis improvement on a YOY basis for the entire year for FY 2026. So the first nine months margin is roughly around 7.1%. So how do you see this target for the entire year now?
So I think the margins will definitely come down the way things are happening, okay? Because of the slowdown in water, which is obviously much higher margin and some other newer projects. Plus, I think the way we had expected that our legacy, where arbitrations and consolidation, et cetera, were going on. So since they have been taking much longer than what we have, so we have also, BESS on prudence, have started providing for some of these numbers, which earlier we had thought that we will be able to, you know, get the orders and close the books accordingly. So I think right now, if you look at the numbers, probably we'll be anywhere between 7-7.5, okay?
We are hoping that it goes to 7.5, but I, today, I don't have the confidence to tell you that it will be 7.5. So it should be between the two numbers. So I think what we have achieved till now, 7.1, and maybe there could be some improvement in Q4, but overall, numbers could be between 7-7.5.
Then 27, 28, it should be around 9, which we were targeting earlier, or?
I think it's too early right now to say. I don't know whether we can maintain 9 or not, but I think it's a little bit early. Maybe when we do the annual accounts, we'll be able to look at the numbers, but it will definitely be better than what we are achieving this count, this year.
And sir, lastly, on the debt side, we maintain our target of roughly INR 5,500 crore of debt by the year-end?
... I think so. I think, honestly, we have been talking internally that should we, we should try to reduce it further, but I think INR 5,500 is a safe number. We will definitely achieve that number.
The working capital days?
Rajiv?
100 to 110 to 115 days.
110 to 115 days, what Rajeev is saying.
Okay, thank you, sir.
Thanks, Vaibhav. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Parikshit from HDFC Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir.
Hi, Parikshit.
So my question is on debt. So, I mean, if I see quarter-on-quarter, the execution has largely been flat, and despite that, our debt has gone up. So any particular reason why that is going up, given that we have not seen any ramp-up on the execution on quarter-on-quarter basis?
Quarter-on-quarter, Rajeev. I think, Parikshit, what has happened in quarter-on-quarter?
Sixty crores.
Quarter-over-quarter, I think it's roughly around INR 300 crore?
Three hundred.
INR 300 crore debt. I think the only reason why that happened was that there were some larger receivables from Saudi, which got moved into the first week of January. So we have already brought our debt down by INR 300 crore. So we are actually at, now back at the September numbers.
Okay. So secondly, I mean, on the margin, we have reduced our guidance. I mean, last quarter also, 8-8.5%, we have said 8%, and now we are going to 7-7.5%. I know there are pressures, but just on this commodity increases, which we have seen in copper and other, largely in copper, so how does it impact our margins for next year? How are we covering the risks on the commodity side? So I could understand how are you managing this risk.
So, Parikshit, on copper, we hardly have any exposure except in our cable business, and cable business is 100% hedged. So there we have a very clear policy that the moment we take an order, we hedge it. Okay? So as far as copper is concerned, I don't think we have any exposure. Maybe something minor here or there, but you can take it as good as not having an exposure. In fact, to me, if my cable team is able to get more manufacturing clearance and all that, the revenues may grow, because then it will be at a much higher copper than what it was last year. So I don't see any impact of copper on my numbers. Yeah.
So just coming back, you know, the more on the margins, I mean, we have been highlighting every quarter that now the legacy products, like yellow legacy products, are getting over. So now what is come back and hitting us again on the margins? And do you think that there could be the pressure on margins will continue to some more quarters?
So I think, Parikshit, what is happening is that, we have been honestly very little bit unhappy with the delays in the closure. We were expecting that, you know, gradually projects will get closed. Like, we have closed at least, I'll say, 10% of our railway projects. Overall numbers, I'm just saying, another 20% will close in this quarter. So, what is happening, and I'll give a simple example. We take a project and, you know, we expect that the project will be closed because the client has agreed for de-scoping a part which is not executable. Now, the client comes back and says, "No, no, I want you to execute." So you are stuck there for another six months. So things like that are happening.
I have got three metro projects where the viaducts are ready, CMRS has been done, ready for commissioning. Unfortunately, unfortunately, they have not been inaugurated. So you continue to keep on, you know, maintaining them and spending money, INR 15-20 crores a month. Okay, they'll all get into claims, but the claim. So right now we have made provisions for that. So unfortunately, there are issues which are hitting, which are something which you would not have predicted, saying that this will what will come. And ultimately, we are running, doing around 270-275 projects. So some way or the other, you keep on - you do get some surprises. I don't think we are happy downgrading our, I'll say, estimates, but it - what is happening is what is happening.
So we had to tell, you know, this is what is there. When last time we said 8%, we were very pretty confident that we'll achieve 8%. But now seeing what has happened and the delay in some of the projects which are... Like, as I said, water. Water is a double-digit margin project. Now, if it's not executing, that's impacting. Some of the newer projects which have got delayed. Like, I'll give a simple example. I've got a couple of projects in NCR. Now, because of, you know, a little bit of some earthquakes which came and all that, the seismic zones have been changed, the design parameters have been changed. So all those projects have been on hold because the developers are redesigning all the projects. So there are various reasons.
One is a little bit delay in closure of old projects, and also a delay in startup of more profitable projects, where the revenues, in some cases, have come slower than what we were expecting. I think basically those are the two reasons of that. However, I would like to assure you that our new orders or the current order book is reasonably profitable, which gives us the confidence for these numbers. The other thing what we should also look at is, one is EBITDA, but we should also look at the PBT and all that. So if you look at that interest cost, while it has not come down in absolute numbers, but as a percentage, it has been going down. So at the end of it, 30%, 40% increase is happening on the below the line also.
The other piece, I think, is we discussed civil, and I did say that we are run short of INR 1,000 crore of revenue because of various reasons. This, this has also led to an underrecovery of overheads. That's another one piece which is, which, which is happening, for which now we are running a special program and all that to see how do we cut down costs, et cetera. But it's taking its time. I hope I'm clear, Parikshit.
Just to summarize, I think one way you are getting impacted on railway and civil, where your working capital is locked and your debt is loaded up. And secondly, the margin pinch points continue in these two segments, right? So, on a normalized basis, one, if one has to see, if these two headwinds are behind us, so what kind of margins on the core business, that's not these sector into it? One should look at while marking the margin?
So if you're asking for margins on T&D, then they are. Your question was not very clear to me, but if you're asking of margins on T&D, then we'll be, and we are in double-digit margins.
My question was, excluding all these pain points and headwinds related to metro projects and some part of the civil projects, so on a core, this is what kind of margins you would have reported if these headwinds were not there.
Then you will be closer to 9%-10%. No, very clearly.
When do we expect to start hitting it by quarterly, because I'm two quarters away from that, three quarters away from that?
So if you are looking at 9%-10%, then I can always say FY 2028, but that's why the earlier question I did not answer for FY 2027, what your margins are, but I said will definitely be higher than this. Okay? 9%-10%, I need to clean up that entire, you know, closure of all the projects of, mainly more of railways and also some part of the civil metro projects which are there, which are now getting commissioned, so I think that will get cleaned up. So I think by FY 2028, we'll definitely be at, I don't know whether it's nine or ten, whatever number we are talking, but next year it will be better than what we are talking. This year we said 7%-7.5%.
Next year, I'm clearly saying it will be better than that. Number, I think in a couple of months, we'll be able to give an exact number of what we expect to achieve.
Sure. Thank you for the opportunity, and wish you all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit, from PL Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity.
Hi, Amit.
Hi. Sir, again, you did explain very in detail what are the reasons for reduced margin guidance. Just wanted to understand, what is holding back your plans to do this delay? You gave an example of three metro projects getting delayed because the dispatches are not happening. Just wanted to understand, with your customers, is it issue of some issues which are letting them delay the projects? So, what is happening at the customer site?
So, Amit, there are various reasons, but if you look at two or three reasons, one, I just now said that in Gurgaon and all that, because of the zone changes, what has happened and the design, the safety parameters which the government has notified, and many of the projects, especially on the high-rise residential, have to be redesigned with much, much larger foundations, et cetera. Or, the alternative for them is to cut down the number of floors, et cetera, which obviously no developer wants to do. That is one reason. The other reason in couple of cases, right now we have in two cases, in Mumbai, is the developer has not been able to acquire the plot fully, which is now under acquisition. That has delayed by, I'll say, almost two quarters, the work front.
In another industrial project, I think the client wanted to change the technology because he got a much, I'll say, cheaper and a better technology. So he has put the project on hold, saying that, "Let me redesign that entire project and come back and talk to us." That was, I think, an INR 300 crore project, is on hold completely. So there are different reasons. And when I say due to delays in work front, it is always on account of client. I'm not saying that on my account, it is delayed. If it is my account, it is my problem. These are all various reasons which are happening. Or I'll give another example, too. I talked about grid, grid, gridlock and all that.
We have got in at least, I'll say, 4 or 5 projects in transmission, which are moving at, I'll say, a snail's pace, because ROW is not available. I have one project where the substation land is not available for last 8-9 months, which was there in our revenue targets and which was a higher margin. Now, 8-9 months, the land is not available. So we are stuck in terms of the growth projections and the margin projections which we had given. I hope I am clear, Amit, on these points.
Yeah, for sure. Sir, about the prospects of INR 180,000, which you highlighted, what is the portion from Middle East? Some color on segment-wise prospects out of this INR 180,000 and domestic versus international.
Give me a minute, I'll just give it to you. So roughly, if you look at, transmission, it would probably be around, 40-50 thousand would be out of for transmission across India, international. Middle East would be probably around INR 15,000 crore or so. Okay? Then you have, railways, then you have civil is a large portion, almost INR 60,000 crore, including, INR 20,000 crore from international. And renewables would be around, INR 30,000 crore. That's the broad numbers.
Right. So, sir, with this prospects, this, I'm assuming, is for next 12-18 months. So what one should think of, this year, I think order intake has been reasonable with 19,000 already won and, close to 5,000 L1. Any color on the order inflows and conversion in next 3-4 quarters?
So typically, this is not for 12-18 months. This is more tenders which are in the pipeline announced. So I'll, I'll say more for 6 months sort of thing, rather than 12-18 months. So the order pipeline will... And even if last one year, we have been seeing the same order pipeline, you know, give or take INR 5,000 crore here and there. So this, this almost remains like a constant. Whatever tenders come in, new tenders keep on getting added... Typically, if you look at it in transmission, we have been having a success ratio between 10%-15%, okay? And for other businesses, it would, it would be actually lower. Okay, renewable would be much lower than that, and civil is also.
So we would look at maybe somewhere around INR 30,000-INR 35,000 crore should be our order intake target for next year. We are not yet firmed up because the budgets are getting firmed up. But typically, I think we should be looking at around INR 35,000 crore.
Understood. Sir, lastly, again, on margins. So, I think T&D said is kind of doing double digit. Just wanted to ask on water, is there any hope that this can again come back after maybe a couple of quarter? What is the situation in terms of your collections? What is the collection pending? And, we are seeing many players going deliberately slow. Any hope in terms of budget for water or these things getting resolved in next, maybe couple of quarters, for water?
So, Amit, during the. I'll say, let's say, take the nine-month period, I don't know the exact number, but I think we got around INR 600 crore of cash flow, okay? And we did INR 600 crore of projects. So around INR 50-70 crore, okay. Let's see what happens in this budget, whether the allocation goes up from the INR 65,000 crore, which they did last time. They spent only INR 25,000 crore, I was told. I don't know how much they have spent actually. Let's look at what announcements they have in the water, for water. But typically, most of this money has finally come from the states.
So we do expect, if, if you extrapolate the same, this, then by next year we should be able to get out of our water projects, because this year also, by the end of the year, we'll probably do around INR 800 crore of revenue. Okay. So let's keep our fingers crossed that, you know, some more money can come. But, optimistically, I think if the same thing continues, then within 12-15 months, we should be able to close all our projects. Okay.
Understood, sir. Sir, lastly, on update on SAE Towers, how the performance has been there in terms of balance sheet and, order wins, for that?
SAE, SAE has been doing well. We have an order book of roughly order book plus around INR 2,600 crore, okay? That's almost two years of turnover for them. So I, I don't think we are worried. We are Margins have been more than have been double digit easily. Orders have been very good, especially from the North America market. And also, what is happening on the balance sheet is that whatever profits we are making are using for our repayment of debt. Debt has, debt has come down in, I think, last few years by almost INR 200 crore, and it will continue to, you know, come down by INR 100 crore-INR 150 crore every year. So I think that, that business is doing very well.
All right, sir. Sir, just one clarity on Chinese. You said that the Chinese import benefit , so I just wanted... didn't got that point. So is it that some components which are not getting manufactured or there's a shortage where the projects are getting stuck and Chinese imports there will help? So, if you can name-
Yeah,
Where that, that's going to help? Yeah.
I don't think I want to get into that naming, because all my OEM friends will come and fight with me. But I think basically what is happening is that, this is also putting a lot of pressure on the players in India, because till now, transformer... Now they think that, okay, ... So-
Right.
So some imports, I think I heard that they have started coming in. I'm not sure about it. That's, that's hearsay. But clearly, I think the delivery timings we are seeing are improving in India. Okay? And for me, as an EPC, it helps me because instead of doing a project, waiting for 24 months to complete a station, substation, I can now do it in 15-17 months. That will cut down costs and, you know, help me in a better turnover and faster, you know, turnaround. So that's how we look at it. Okay.
So you're saying, there's been some imports of the final product also, is it?
I understand that orders have been placed.
Okay.
I don't know whether any products have yet come in or not, but I, I do hear that components have started coming in. Some very critical components-
Right.
which were holding back some of the substation commissioning, GIS commissioning and all that. I think some have come in. That's what my understanding is. But to me, it's all, honestly, hearsay.
Sir, your understanding, what, like, what percentage of component, probably, just in understanding or what is-
Yeah,
Okay. Okay.
No, it's not a question of value being large or small. It's just a question that one small component can hold back the entire commissioning.
Yeah, that's it.
Okay? So, Amit, you'll have to come back on the queue. There are a lot of people waiting.
Thank you.
Don't worry.
Thank you so much. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashwani, from Emkay Global Financial Services. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, sir. Good evening. Thank you for the opportunity.
Hi, good evening.
Yeah, I think most of the questions have answered. Just one question, sir, on so last, so, you know, last calendar year, we received one, oil and gas pipeline in, in Middle East. How is the opportunity coming up now? Crude has been stable of late, at around $65. So do you see any, you know, new opportunities coming up there for us?
So I think we are still not in the big league and all that. So I think whatever we are right now targeting and all that, those are not going to get impacted by... In fact, the order which we got in this was this year. Okay, so I personally don't think we are not large players like some of our competitors, that, you know, we could get impacted by scrapping of projects or not coming. For us, it's still a little bit, just testing the waters, let me put it this way. So I don't feel any issue.... Also, since you raised this issue of oil prices, a lot of some other people were asking me on payments and on transmission. So clearly, we are seeing the transmission pipeline being very robust and payments coming absolutely on time.
So, we have still not seen the impact of crude oil and all that on these projects. Maybe some very marquee projects or projects like NEOM and all may get impacted, but otherwise, we have not heard of any transmission line projects getting impacted. Oil and gas, since we are not large players, we are not keeping a large track of what, a very close track of what is happening.
Do you see any renewable opportunities in Middle East, sir, for us?
100%. There are large opportunities. We were deliberately staying away because we really wanted to get our act together in India, and this year we are commissioning, actually, we have commissioned almost 850, 950, 950, 850, yeah. So we have commissioned almost 850 MW already of solar capacity, spread over two large plants. So that has given us a large confidence, you know, saying that, yes, we can do larger projects. So we have now started looking at those markets, okay? Both in, I'll say, Saudi and UAE.
All right, sir. Thank you very much.
Thanks, thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Harshit from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity, sir. Sir, can you please-
Yes.
Talk about the labor shortages which we were facing in the past, and what has been its impact on our current quarter, and by what time can we see the normalization of the same?
Normalization, because, you know, this problem has been going on for many years. And in fact, right now in our board also, we were discussing the same issue, saying, is there... I think the only discussion was that with MGNREGA going and the new scheme being funded by state, maybe more people may start working outside because they may-- the scheme may not be, you know, it, it may take some time for it to settle and all that. So if that happens, it's not what the government wants, but if that happens, then maybe the labor supply may improve. But let me put you something. Sometime back, we had 18,000 laborers, now it's become 24,000. As the order book and all the execution is expanding, the need goes up.
So I think we will, we will have a shortage of 2,000-3,000 or 4,000 people. We are taking various steps, but difficult to say that when this labor shortage will get over. Very, very difficult.
But any quantum on it, like, I mean, what sort of a quantum impact we are having it on a quarterly basis or something like that, if any color you can give it on?
So if you look at numbers, maybe INR 500-600 crore for the quarter could have been impacted, where we could have got more revenue, especially on the civil side.
Okay. Got it, sir. Thank you.
Thanks. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Saket Kapoor from Kapoor & Co. Please go ahead.
Hello?
Hello.
Thank you. Hopefully I'm audible, sir?
Now you're audible, yeah.
Audible.
Yeah, yeah. Thank you, sir. Sir, firstly, sir, you were mentioning about the NEOM project getting affected because of the oil prices. So can you just throw some more light, what we're trying to convey, sir?
Yeah, [Foreign language] there are lots of marquee projects in Saudi which are getting impacted. Yesterday or day before, I saw one on that Golden Cube and all that also getting impacted. Well, all I was told, [Foreign language] , NEOM ka, wo 100 ka 6% [Foreign language] . That's what we are hearing, okay? But the talk was, you know, the question was ki oil price [Foreign language] ? So, Saket ji, oil price [Foreign language], you know, aspirational project [Foreign language] . But jo essential projects hai, okay, whether it is in transmission, whether it is in oil...
Like, I'll tell you, they had a large HVDC project which they had, they had put on hold for one year, now it has come back, which we had thought [Foreign language] , but they have come back. So j[Foreign language] , what they are doing? If you look at most of our business in T&D in Saudi, has been to connect from renewable power.
Mm.
So what they are also doing, like what we are doing, is that [Foreign language] . Okay? And power they want to produce from renewables. So we have to understand one more thing is that even if the price goes down, their internal consumption, in my view, is going down because they are relying a lot, lot more and more on renewables. So they may have the same amount of revenue coming in, maybe from a-- even if the price is lower, because the content is going up very clearly.
Okay.
Haanji.
Sir, secondly, sir, you mentioned about this Chinese entry into the EPC segment as a supplier would be benefiting us. So, sir, isse hamare cable segment mein jo the CapEx that we and other people have done, is there any threat for their participating there in the cable segment and then lowering of margins? Because woh toh, sir, compete lower levels pe kar dete hain margins.
Mm.
How will that affect?
Saket ji-
Yeah.
[Foreign language] , is not an opening up of the sector for everything. What they have talked about is that [Foreign language] , on substations, transformers, et cetera, GIS, et cetera. They are talking about opening more power plants also, power equipment. Because [Foreign language] , you have to set up a lot more fuel-BESSd power plants. So I think it is, it is more on that segment rather than on items like, cables and cables and all have not been a great, too much of import. At least I am not aware of any major imports happening on cables. [Foreign language] has been very high quality, 400 kV, 500 kV cables and all that.
I have not seen normal cables and conductors. I have never heard of a conductor coming into India. Okay? So I don't see any impact of that on my cable and conductor business. No.
Okay. And what are the ground pillars, sir, from the cable segment exactly? We have done CapEx also, and going ahead, abhi kaisa thrust dekh rahe hai sir aap, order booking and the trajectory going ahead?
If you look at this quarter, we have improved our revenue by 37%. Okay? So I think we are looking well, and a large part of the increase is also coming from our conductor business. So right now we are full for the next couple of quarters, a[Foreign language] . Order booking [Foreign language] because of the very high aluminum and copper pricing. So there are many customers who are still waiting to see [Foreign language] . So I think order booking is slightly on the lower side, but it's a matter of time that will get picked up. I don't think we are worried because we have enough orders today.
Correct, sir. Dhanyavad, sir, and thank you for hosting the call in the evening. Thank you, sir.
Thank you so much. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rupesh, from Nayan M. Vala Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Am I audible?
Yeah, go ahead.
Sir, first of all, I just want some clearance. I seem to have missed the guidance that you had given on margins. So if you could just repeat that.
Margin guidance?
Yes.
So we have said that we are, we are at 7.1% for the nine months. We should be, for the year, we'll be between 7%-7.5%.
Okay. Okay, sir. And sir, earlier in, earlier in a few calls, you had mentioned that, you, you would be shifting the focus of Civil to, you know, building and factory with high realization buildings, you know, high ticket size, high ticket size orders for the Civil segment. So if you could provide a mix on the, building and factory, building and factory order book of Civil as against the other projects.
I don't have the exact number, but I think out of that 11,000, almost 60%-65% would be buildings and factories. But let me tell you the one thing. [Foreign language] , everything is on buildings and factories. 100%.
Okay. Okay, sir.
Also, the size has been going up. Okay?
Achha. Okay, sir, that's great to know. Just one last question, if I could squeeze in. The PGCIL, this entire situation with the PGCIL, is it affecting the domestic T&D revenues at all, or is there, you know, a minuscule impact?
So, let me put this way, I don't think the revenues are getting impacted. We have a large order book, number one. Number two, I think you joined later, so I had said earlier that, this year on the TBCB, 75% of the orders have gone to private sector. Okay? And we have got orders from almost all the large private sector clients, whether it is Adani, Sterlite, IndiGrid, you name it. So we are getting that enough. To say that nothing is getting impacted will not be correct, but I, I don't see there is any, any significant impact of that, especially on the revenues for the year. I think our India business has grown very well even this year also.
Okay, sir. That, that's it from my side. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I now hand over the conference to Mr. Vimal Kejriwal for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Thank you everyone for participating and continued interest in KEC. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Thank you. On behalf of KEC International Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.