Mahindra Logistics Limited (NSE:MAHLOG)
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Apr 29, 2026, 3:29 PM IST
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Q4 23/24

Apr 23, 2024

Operator

Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Shogun Jain from SG for the disclaimer. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Shogun Jain
CEO, Investor Relations Practice, SG

Thank you, Rayo. Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the Mahindra Logistics Limited Q4 and FY 2024 earnings conference call. We have with us Mr. Rampraveen Swaminathan, MD and CEO, Mr. Saurabh Taneja, CFO, and the senior management team of the company. I hope everyone has had a chance to view our financial results and investor presentation posted on the company's website and stock exchanges. We will begin the call with opening remarks from the management, followed by an open forum for Q&A. Before we begin, I'd like to point out that some of the statements made during today's call may be forward-looking. Our disclaimer to that effect was included in the earnings presentation. I'd now like to invite Ram, the MD and CEO of Mahindra Logistics Limited, to make some preliminary remarks.

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Thank you, Shogun. Good evening, everyone, and I trust you all have had a chance to view our presentation and financial results, which are available in the stock exchange and our company's website. As we wrap up the year, in the interest of time, I'll focus our comments this time on a shorter update on markets, a more detailed overview of our operations and some key matters of significance, obviously, a financial summary and a bit of a roadmap for the future. Let us begin with the domestic market. At a summary level, the broad direction by end markets has remained consistent with prior quarters. We do continue to see strength in the overall automotive segment, driven by growth finally in passenger cars.

Commercial vehicles remain muted, and during the quarter, we did see some impact of higher NPDs and more production days, and lower volumes as some of our key customers cut production to balance supply and demand. The farm segment continues to be sluggish, with weakening lead indicators. The short-term outlook remains soft. We have seen a fair amount of correction in Q3 and Q4, and we don't expect any further weaknesses other than seasonal variations that are typical to the industry. In the consumer segment, CDR, FMCG, pharma, et cetera, have seen muted kind of volumes and demand weakness through the last three to four quarters. However, however, a growing Indian economy, increased consumer spending power, and enhanced access to reasonably priced, high-quality goods will continue to have an impact on the sector.

The overall size of the consumer durables market by FY 2023 was estimated at INR 1,303 billion, and the market is expected to grow at around 13.5%-14% CAGR until FY 2028, driven by rising rural consumption, a shorter replacement cycle, improved retail penetration, the availability of a wider range of brands and products at various price points. Our long-term view for the segment remains extremely positive, though we do see short-term softness in rural and urban areas as well. Many of the customers in this segment are now honestly reviewing their supply chain design as things have settled down post-COVID, and this is resulting in a higher number of bids and RFQs for integrated logistics services. E-commerce has been challenging end market for us in the last three quarters of the year.

However, we have seen a quick and strong uptick in order intake in the fourth quarter with stronger growth in hyperlocal, grocery, and specific product segments and geographical markets. The mobility segment is showing very strong growth on B2C, that your B2C demand with increased travel and you know, seasonal occasions. The B2B segment continues to show a slow but sure growth as return to work has accelerated to higher levels, and this is evident in our volume growth as well. Before I move on to operations, let me just make a quick comment on cross-border logistics. While there has been a small uptick on ocean freight prices in the past quarter, overall market and pricing remains subdued for cross-border logistics.

We did see a moderate impact of the Red Sea crisis on pricing, but we could not gain significant benefits of the same. With an increased focus on Make in India and a greater spread of exposure to other geography, cross-border logistics remains a key growth area for us for the future, and we'll continue to invest in that space, as we try to, you know, focus on volume recovery. Moving on to our business operations themselves. You know, sales, aggregate sales, sales across all our segments showed a positive trend in Q4. The third-party logistics business had a strong order intake with an annual contract value of over INR 100 crores, which has also been mirrored, which is also mirrored by strong growth in our last mile delivery business.

Growth largely came from a higher share of wallet in existing customers, such as Hindustan Unilever, Cummins, Meesho, Marico, and a few others, as well as new logo additions, such as Mars, during the quarter. The freight forwarding business, as I mentioned earlier, has seen, you know, broad macro challenges, but on a sequential basis, did see growth with a higher share of ocean volume driving most of our growth, though we did have some softness late into four on our air products. In the express business, we added 12 logos during the quarter, and we saw a high, growing higher synergy between the express business and our 3PL business. Our sales focus has been on driving lane utilization, as we try to look at cost optimization, margin improvement, and thus we have been selective with customer growth.

Overall, our focus on sales synergy across all our segments remains high. 67% of the top 100 customers of MLL as a group in supply chain now consume over two services out of the four, which we largely focus on, and 25% of our revenue is from warehousing and integrated solutions. From an operations perspective, operations in the quarter were stable across all parts of our business. In the 3PL business, we did have two key challenges: higher labor costs during the quarter and the impact of the NPD or lower volumes in non-Mahindra automotive customers. These were largely offset by operational efficiencies, but we were not able to gain further accretive earnings benefits from these efficiencies. Across all the businesses, our operational focus has been strongest on the express business.

The focus on cost optimization and productivity has helped the costs in that business come down, enhancing our profitability, which I will share more on later in these comments. Volume in the express business during the quarter was around 75,000 tons, which was lower than our target levels, as we had a focus on gain level productivity and yields, rather than broad volume growth. From a people technology and ESG perspective, Mahindra Logistics continues to be a leader on D&I across our industry. During the quarter, we strengthened several people and diversity and inclusion initiatives across our business. The launch of our LogiOne technology platform continues to make progress.

During the quarter, we upgraded several of our sites to LogiPick, our new WMS system, our warehouse management system, which is integrated with LogiFreight and other elements of the LogiOne infrastructure. Our system, during the year, we also completed a significant transition on our technology infrastructure, which has strengthened the business's integrated services, as well as provide better data protection and, you know, lower our vulnerability on our overall cloud-based architecture. And that was completed in Q4 of the year. From a sustainability level, our focus remains on three pillars: decarbonizing our supply chain, greening infrastructure, and driving circularity across our business. We finished FY 2024 with over 27 million green kilometers across our electric vehicle fleet and over 3.6 million sq ft of renewable powered warehousing.

We have around 3.5 million sq ft of IGBC Platinum or LEED certified buildings, which constitutes nearly 80% of our build-to-suit or multi-client infrastructure. A few matters of significance for the quarter, which I think have things which we have covered in earlier calls as well or are relevant to the quarter's results. First, if you an MEHPL in perspective of express business, our improvements in the business remained on trajectory, which were indicated earlier. Our EBITDA for the quarter improved QoQ by INR 8 crore to a loss of INR 14.8 crore during the quarter. Overall, road losses at a PAT level shrunk by INR 8.9 crore. Our focus remains on becoming EBITDA positive by the end of Q2 FY 2025.

The core businesses, especially the third-party logistics business, saw the impact of some one-time non-recurring charges. During the quarter, we reviewed accounts which we had been ramping down or discontinued since FY 2020, specifically around the commodity segment. As we reviewed those, we obviously looked at the impact of that, and we took a charge which reflected the exposure we have to those segments. The collective impact of this was around INR 10 crore at a PAT level. These remain non-recurring charges. At an overall level, our ECL of our non-Mahindra supply chain, 3PL supply chain, you know, receivables level, which is generally between INR 500 crore-INR 600 crore, and our ECL levels, our ECL provisions are around 0.3%-0.4%.

So overall, our overall exposure remains extremely muted in terms of credit quality in our business. But this is something which we thought we had to review, as we had largely exited the segment and discontinued that and some other operations, in the rest of the business as well. During the quarter, the IT transition we spoke about earlier also had a one-time cost, right, which was around INR 2 crore at a PAT level. This, right, collectively, these added to around INR 12 crore at a PAT level. These are non-recurring costs, and adjusted for the same, we would have reported an EBITDA of at least INR 70 crore for the quarter at a consolidated level. This quarter also shows the fully integrated impact of the Rivigo and Meru acquisitions we completed earlier in the year.

Integration of the business, the rest of MLL, is on track, and we are confident that it will be accretive to the business on full integration. Let me just move on quickly to finance consolidated and quarterly performance for the year. From an overall, you know, from an overall Q4 FY 2025 level, revenue for the quarter increased by 14% year-over-year to around INR 1,451 crores. Revenue from warehousing and solutions segment of the 3PL business stood at INR 268.3 crores in the quarter, representing 24% of our revenue in the segment.

The supply chain segment, which includes our 3PL, freight forwarding, last mile delivery, and express businesses, contributed 94.25% of the overall revenue, and the mobility business contributed around 5.75% of our revenue for the quarter. Gross margin on a fully consolidated basis stood at nine point four percent in Q4 FY 2024, compared to 10.2% in Q4 FY 2023. Gross margin without the impact of the MEHPL business was 10.6%, which was, you know, an improvement year-on-year. EBITDA for the quarter stood at INR 56.4 crores, up from 52 crores for the same quarter last year.

And despite the impact of the consolidation of the Rivigo acquisitions, EBITDA was also impacted, as I mentioned earlier, by the one-time charges, which were approximately INR 12 crore at a PAT level. At the consolidated level, our PAT for Q4 FY 2024 stood at a loss of INR 12.8 crore, an improvement versus the prior quarter, which was a loss—sequential prior quarter, which was a loss of INR 17 crore. Moving on, to specific components, at MLL, revenue for the quarter was INR 1,183 crore, up from INR 1,054 crore for the same quarter last year. PAT for the quarter was INR 8 crore, as compared to 22.4 crore in the same quarter of last year. As I said earlier, these reflect approximately a INR 12 crore impact of the one-time charges which were taken during the quarter.

In our freight forwarding business, the large stage, revenue for the quarter was INR 63.4 crores, up sequentially compared to the prior quarter, but down compared to the same quarter of last year, where revenues were INR 72.6 crores. PAT for Q4 FY 2024 was INR 1.2 crores, up 33% from the corresponding quarter for the prior year. Our Express business, revenue for the quarter was INR 97.2 crores. We did have a PAT loss of INR 24.9 crores, which is an INR 8.9 crore improvement versus the third quarter of FY 2024. In the mobility business, revenue for the quarter ended at around INR 83.7 crores, up 11% from INR 75.3 crores for the corresponding quarter of last year. PAT for the quarter stood at around INR 2.3 crores.

We now are in sequential trend line of profitability, and with the full integration of both the Whizzard and the Meru businesses, we have been able to kind of turn that business around. With that, which represents actually half our last mile delivery business, reported a revenue of INR 32 crore for the fourth quarter of FY 2024, and the PAT for the quarter was around, you know, INR 10 lakh, was partially just about breaking even. The 2x2 Logistics business, which largely provides car carrier services to MLL for the large part, has completed turnaround during. The division made a profit of INR 1.1 crore for the quarter, as compared to a loss of INR 30 lakh for the same quarter last year.

From an overall perspective, we continue to be diversified across all our businesses, with a strong contribution of both auto and non-automotive businesses. Our automotive business, including Mahindra and non-Mahindra clients, contributed around 60% of our overall revenue across all our business segments, and the non-automotive business contributed around 40% of our business. As I mentioned earlier, that's largely split across consumer, discretionary, discrete manufacturing, and e-commerce, broadly across all three. So as we look forward, as we come into the end of FY 2024 and look forward to the coming year, you know, we remain confident in our strategy of providing integrated and customized solutions across the supply chain for our customers. Our core businesses are now showing strong growth engines, and the express business margin improvements are on track.

Our overall technology ecosystem will provide customers the opportunity to visualize and orchestrate their supply chain, and not just specific elements of it, such as trucks, warehouses or packages. We continue to invest in our green logistics capabilities, focused on becoming net zero by 2040, and empowering our customers' energy transition. I believe that at MLL, our greatest asset is our people. FY 2024 has been a challenging year, but a year where we have made improvements across our business and have started turning around the trajectory in our express business. With this, I'll open the floor for questions and answers.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking questions. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. To ask questions, please press star and one. The first question is from the line of Alok Deora from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.

Alok Deora
Research Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Hello, good evening, sir. Sir, a couple of questions. So first on the standalone business, your this other expenses have shot up quite a lot, even if I look at QoQ basis, it's increased from nearly INR 27 crores to INR 46 crores in, you know, one quarter itself. So what, what happened there, if you could? Is, is there one of your you were talking about? Or if you could just elaborate on that.

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Yeah. Good afternoon, Alok, and thanks for joining us. Yes, I think that largely represents just the one-time charges we had. I think, right, I think you will see between last quarter, last year, between Q4, Q3 and Q4, the cost went up around INR 17 crore. All of that largely is the one-time charges at a pre-tax level. So the INR 12 crore at a pre-tax level would be pretty much all the difference, Alok.

Alok Deora
Research Analyst, Motilal Oswal

So actually, sir, that's, I mean, if I look at in the... As another expense, it's quite a large jump. So what's that regarding? I mean, it's, it's for any particular project or, I mean-

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

To be honest, I think this is just a figure, obviously, for purpose of reporting simplification. It carries a lot of other line items inside it. I think when you look at the, if you refer to last year's annual report, Alok, you will find the schedule which detail out all the other expenses. But it includes your PDD costs, it includes, you know, IT and IT costs, it includes infrastructure costs, it includes you know some of our CSR work, our marketing and brand work. So it's a wide set of different categories under the look. It's a bit of a catch-all category for a wide variety of expenses.

And therefore it's your—but the big movers in that are generally our technology costs and our large sale adjustments, which are really the things which move quarter on quarter in a significant way. The rest of those generally tend to be fairly, you know, within kind of an inflationary window. But what I would... I think if you look back at last year's annual report, I think you will find a breakup for the INR 37 crore, which we reported last year. And I think obviously, we have had some reclassification this year with rentals and so other, some other things we added into this year. When you see the annual report this year, I think you'll be able to get a better appreciation of the breakups.

Alok Deora
Research Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Sure. And, sir, in the Rivigo business, so while the losses have come down from maybe INR 22 crore to INR 15 crore, I mean, the revenue growth has been pretty muted. I mean, so what's been the volume growth? You mentioned about handling 75,000 tons. So what has been the growth Q-over-Q?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Yes, sorry, as I said, we've added on 12, 12 logos. I think on a daily rendered basis, growth has been around 3.5%. Right, and our big focus, Alok, there, I think I mentioned in my opening comments, has been on really getting our lane utilization up. So we remain focused on timing sales, on getting capacity utilization up. If you remember last quarter, what we had said was that we remain focused on running the network at very high service levels. And that means when we try to do that, obviously, as we run more aggressive schedules across our network, we do get exposed towards lower utilization. And so most of the sales effort over the last quarter has been on balancing that.

And that is why you are seeing actually the margin improvement on flat volume or reasonably low volume growth. We are seeing, we are seeing that impact because of that. To answer your question directly, we think the volume tonnage growth is around 3.5% quarter-over-quarter. We did see some setback on that because of a marginal drop in yield, but overall in that range. And we can pull out more specific data. Alok, if you email us separately, we'll give you more detail on that.

Alok Deora
Research Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Sure. And so earlier we were looking at turning EBITDA positive by end of FY 2024, and now we were talking about, I think September quarter, we will be kind of being EBITDA positive. But, you know, this first quarter, due to the election year, might be kind of a muted activity, and election quarter, you know, specifically, and then we hit the monsoon period also, and also the, the festive season will kind of fit in the third quarter. So how confident are we of getting in EBITDA positive? Because most of the other companies in the express side are talking about pretty muted growth in the first half of FY 2025. So just your thoughts, please, on that.

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Sure. It's a fair reflection. I don't think we are. I don't think we expect to see a lot of volume growth in the first half of the year. But in the second half, as you get into the season, the festive season, obviously, we should see a bigger, bigger impact. I think for us, and that's why I think we've been more focused on cost, Alok, and cost optimization, driving productivity across the entire system, to get much of the improvement which is there. So I'd say, look, we have a very high level of confidence to hit break even by, at an EBITDA level by end of Q2 of this financial year. That's a point we had pegged around two quarters ago.

We have kind of said that we do expect to start seeing a hockey stick of improvement. In Q3, we saw a 10% reduction in EBITDA losses. This quarter, I think you've seen something like a 27%-28% improvement in EBITDA, and we hope to sustain that improvement through both a combination of cost and volume, over the next couple of quarters. But obviously we are not gonna have a gangbusters volume story because I think demand is slightly on the muted side.

Alok Deora
Research Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Got it. Just one last question. So this INR 97 crore run rate, which we have done in the fourth quarter, even if it remains pretty muted as we are talking about, say maybe INR 98-INR 99 crore sort of a quarterly run rate, so still this single growth loss could keep coming down, or it would, you know, kind of prolong?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

So Alok, I won't give a demand guidance, but I think, as I said, at this stage, while we are factoring in some of the weakness in our markets-

Alok Deora
Research Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Right.

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

and the volume we expect to see, volume growth we expect to see, we are pretty confident about, our ability to kind of meet that, meet set point. I think as I mentioned, last quarter as well, there is a hockey stick improvement, and we are starting to, hit that hockey stick. We still are not exactly in the purple path of improvement, but we are, we are in good step to get there.

Alok Deora
Research Analyst, Motilal Oswal

Got it. Thank you. I'll come back in the queue if I have to. Thank you, sir.

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Thank you, Alok.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sudarshan Padmanabhan from JM Financial. Please go ahead.

Sudarshan Padmanabhan
Analyst, JM Financial

Yeah, thank you for taking my question. So my question is, you know, on the comment on, you know, the supply chain management business, which we have seen an improvement, specifically, you know, towards the e-commerce side, where, you know, we have seen the entire industry seeing some kind of a struggle. We have seen, you know, the industry, as you mentioned, has turned around. If you can elaborate a bit about, you know, what has, you know, on the environment side, you know, moved the needle and how sustainable is it? Is it, you know, primarily because we are seeing a lot more orders coming into the organized players as compared to the unorganized players? A little bit more color on that.

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Sure, Darshan. I think, as I've consistently maintained over the last few quarters, I think, I think e-com demand still has been growing. I think from the, from the free e-com marketplace, so I think you can see that on their numbers, and there has been growth there. What specifically was a challenge for us at the first half of the year was, that they added a lot of capacity in the in-house operations, and, and as they did that and volume did not grow at that expected level, a lot more volume was insourced by them. And, and we did obviously see an impact of that as a very large partner for the, all the leading marketplaces in the country. Now, as we came to Q3, we kind of bottomed that out.

Most of that impact has been taken in, and the freights which had to be shut down and sourced have already been done. Since then, we have been seeing three big parts of our strategy playing out, and the first one has been a focus on specific niches. So I think as a company, we have really not been focusing on just, you know, the traditional categories of small pack electronics, but we kind of, you know, turned our focus towards, you know, segments like grocery and so on, where we think we actually have, both more value addition and the ability to provide, a more, capable service. And that's, so those, those niches have actually been apparel, grocery have been, big growth, growth boosters for us. The second one obviously has been account expansion.

We have expanded or deepened our presence in some of the other, in both emerging marketplaces and as well as in some, in as a result in some brands. That account expansion has been and part of growth for us. The third one has been around adding, you know, new services. For example, we started an integrated, you know, line haul service in partnership with Flipkart. We have been doing more integration between our fulfillment centers and last mile delivery operations. So both focus on new offerings and integration has helped us, I think, increase our penetration. From a sustainability perspective, I think all of this is, you know, in our e-commerce business, around 25% of it.

So obviously, we have exposure to e-com, both through our third party logistics business and our last mile delivery business. Around 15%-20% of that is fifteen percent of it is purely transportation, which moves up and down. The rest of the business is generally contracted out for at least two to three years. So from a sustainability perspective, I don't see a significant challenge as we go forward. We have obviously taken that hit of adjustment, which we had to. Then from a short-term perspective, obviously, volumes remain a challenge. We do have minimum guaranteed volumes in all our sites, but, predictably, of course, we may we are much more profitable if those MGMs are breached by a substantial amount.

So that challenge remains, but from a downside risk, we don't see anything substantial, at least in this financial year. Darshan.

Sudarshan Padmanabhan
Analyst, JM Financial

Yes, sir. And, sir, with respect to the express and, you know, express transportation, we have seen that in the last, you know, quarter and a few quarters, there's some kind of a, you know, jump in the volumes. And, you know, with respect to even the other participant, when we talked about Rivigo's, kind of losses coming down, you know, we did say that there is going to be some kind of a pressure in the near term as far as, you know, the volume pickup is concerned. It will be more back-ended. If you can throw a little color on the cost optimization, because, I mean, if I just run the annual cost, I mean, at around INR 100 crore, we are running at around INR 15 crore of EBITDA loss.

While it has narrowed down, on an annual basis, it is still about INR 60 crore. So that is the amount of, you know, of cost that we need to remove. So what are the kind of optimization that we can see in that time?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Sure. I think the things, you know, we've... So that's, I mean, the difference between obviously the express business and more conventional contract logistics business is just operating leverage, right? So we are running a fairly stable fleet, and our focus really on the cost side has been on two, three things. And the first one has been improving the utilization of the vehicles, both by doing better network operations and planning and specifically filling demand on those lanes and, you know, routes where we have a utilization challenge. So the end of Q3 are line haul utilization, and line haul is about approximately 60% of the cost, 55%-60% of the cost. Line haul utilization was around 65%- 60%-70%. It's now up to around 80%-85%.

On our forward lanes, it's even higher, it's around close to 87%-88%. So one big lever which has been an improvement for us is, technically, for example, if it costs you INR 10-INR 12 to move a kilo, INR 5.5-INR 6 is line haul. So if you actually improve the utilization on those vehicles by 15%, you can actually see a substantial reduction. We think there's still more headroom to go there, but that's been one big driver, Darshan, for the cost optimization. The second one has been obviously pickup and delivery, which is the other big part of our cost, has been around how we pick up and deliver products from our customers and what is the network design, from a processing center down to branches and terminals.

We have been working on restructuring those to drive lower pickup and delivery costs. And so that's around. Pickup and delivery costs are typically around 15%-17% of our costs. And again, we think there's a decent entitlement of 20%-25% improvement there. A lot of that good news has still not been fully, has still not come in fully. In the third quarter, what we saw a lot of good news on was actually on the line haul cost optimization. So but that's the second big lever, and the third lever really is around site operations themselves. Obviously, the sites are a fixed cost within a time period for us, and a big focus has been on driving more productivity and volume through the existing sites.

And as we do that, we'll obviously ensure that we will get an operating leverage from that. Collectively, those are present approximately, in our mind, as we stand right now, a 15%-17% potential in terms of improvement, and that's the, the, the gap we are trying to bridge over the next two quarters. So, do your math. If you bridge that, 17% on INR 97 crores, it will come to around INR 15 crores, which is the current EBITDA loss we have at a quarterly now.

Sudarshan Padmanabhan
Analyst, JM Financial

Sure, sir. Yeah. It is Sudarshan, actually. Sir, one final question from my-

Operator

Sudarshan, I'm really sorry to interrupt, but may we request you to rejoin the queue as there are several participants waiting their turn?

Sudarshan Padmanabhan
Analyst, JM Financial

Sure.

Operator

Thank you very much. Before we take the next question, we'd like to request participants to please limit the questions to two per participant. Should you have a follow-up question, we request you to rejoin the queue. The next question is from the line of Aditya Mongia from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Hi, Aditya.

Aditya Mongia
Associate Director and Analyst, Kotak Securities

Hi, Ram. Thanks for the opportunity. I'll start with the questions. The first one, more data-oriented. In your standalone segment, what has been the full year order inflows, and what kind of growth visibility does it give you for next year?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

I think from the standalone of MLL, I'm guessing your question is largely around standalone MLL numbers, which is the third, the contract logistics business. I think annual ACV for the year consolidated was around INR 217 crore, largely non-Mahindra business. Aditya, and that should be a fairly large amount of that should be some amount of it has already been monetized during the year, and therefore, is in actually INR 400. But a fairly large amount of that is something which will flow through the rest of this financial year.

Aditya Mongia
Associate Director and Analyst, Kotak Securities

Sorry, you said 217 as in?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Seven zero.

Aditya Mongia
Associate Director and Analyst, Kotak Securities

... Sorry?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

270.

Aditya Mongia
Associate Director and Analyst, Kotak Securities

270. Understood. The second question that I had was more, kind of getting a sense. You said with Flipkart, you are doing an integrated, line haul service. And does that mean that, Flipkart is outsourcing to you, the line haul part of business, or how does that-

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Yeah, we do. We, we right now do, we have traditionally been doing line haul services for Flipkart earlier as well, and we have largely been in what we call trip-based services, which is point-to-point, you know, like freight operations, surface freight operations for them. Earlier this year, we actually started an, you know, kind of a network operation for them. So we essentially operate a fleet, which is location agnostic. It works across the entire Flipkart network, on a dedicated basis, for them, and that's an, that's an operation we launched, I think, in, September last year, and August, August, September last year, around, Independence Day. And of course, we are looking at further expanding that this year.

Aditya Mongia
Associate Director and Analyst, Kotak Securities

Understood. And then just to kind of round it off, last question on my side, and then we'll get in inside the queue. So if you are doing 80%-85% capacity utilization on your express business, shouldn't one be worried with the kind of losses that the business still kind of reports? Just kind of not clear whether it's a good thing or a bad thing to still be having losses at that kind of high utilization in the largest cost element that you have.

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

No, I think it's good. I think I tried to answer this when Alok asked the question earlier, but I think we are, as I said, we are on 80 to early, in the early 80s in terms of line haul utilization, and we think there is an upside there, right? Especially as some of the volume increases, we'll obviously add more scheduled fleets there as well. And there is more goodness to be had there. The second bit, but the second part of it, big part of it, is actually on pickup and delivery costs, which we have not seen most of that goodness come into our financial data. So that will be, that's a big priority focus for us right now. The third one is around site operations and physical infrastructure on the network.

So not the entire part of it. We need, we can improve our gross margin, EBITDA levels around 15% over the next six months, over the first six months of the year. Not all of that is actually coming from line haul. A substantial part of that is actually coming from site ops, and pickup and delivery as well. A smaller part will actually come from line haul. A lot of the line haul improvements have already happened. So as I mentioned earlier, from mid- to late 2016, we have grown to early 80s in terms of line haul utilization, and that's what we are showing partially in the improvement in the numbers as well. So obviously. So that will not be the primary vector.

The other, the other levers will won't be the primary lever. The other levers will be what we, we are focusing on right now.

Aditya Mongia
Associate Director and Analyst, Kotak Securities

Sure. Those are my questions. I'll get back into the queue. Thank you.

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Thanks, Alvin.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Amit Dixit, from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.

Amit Dixit
Lead Analyst, Metals, Logistics, and Defence, ICICI Securities

Yeah, hi. Good evening, everyone, and, thanks for the opportunity. I have, two questions. The first one is, if I look at the contract logistics business, while revenue has grown by 15% YOY in Q4, gross margin has grown by just 2%. So just wanted to understand what is playing out there. Is it, that because of higher e-commerce, share, we are having this kind of, muted growth in gross margin in contract logistics?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

So Amit, I think it's a mix of multiple things. I think, firstly, we obviously have had a pickup in transportation services more than warehousing, so there has been a mixed impact on the incremental volume, which we've seen of around, roughly INR 100 crore on a year-on-year basis, like INR 85, INR80 crore on a year-on-year basis. A substantial amount of that, a reasonably large amount of that is in transportation services, and that's had an impact. The second thing, which you would have seen, probably in the slide deck, right, which is uploaded on the investor deck, is on the warehousing and solutions business, especially on warehousing, we have had a lower year-on-year yield from that business.

As you're starting up new sites, that typically new sites take three to six months to hit the right level of earnings in them. In the last four months of the year, we've had quite a few sites which have been under construction and then launch, and we obviously carry a certain pre-operative cost or a pre-launch cost for that. That should settle down in the first half of this year. I think, you know, we are launching several new sites by May this year. So there is a carry of that part and that, you know, that realization on a gross margin at a pre-industry level per sq ft should grow by 10%-12% through this financial year.

So it's a combination of those two things, which I think, which are, are resulting in, you know, earnings not being so accurate, but that is, that - but these are all early cycle, early cycle parts of an, of a four, five-year contract. From our window of time, they will actually settle down to the right level of earnings. And, and I think there is a slide later on the deck, which actually shows you the warehousing margin as well. We have it included normally for your reference.

Amit Dixit
Lead Analyst, Metals, Logistics, and Defence, ICICI Securities

Great, yes. The second question is on B2B Express. Again, what we are seeing is that even in gross margin level, we have a loss of roughly INR 6 crore. While it is appreciated that, you know, we are trying to optimize the lane mix and everything, but despite being at a higher, at a high utilization level, despite being, you know, despite optimizing the lane mix, we are still incurring this gross margin loss. So, what kind of volume would give you breakeven at gross margin level, at least in B2B Express?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Well, I think it's not a pure volume game, right? I mean, otherwise, we would not have shown the improvement we showed this quarter, right? So I think, as I said earlier on, there are three big parts to the puzzle, at a pre-gross margin level. And the first one is around the line haul cost itself. There, the utilization is around 80-85%. We believe there is still, you know, 5%-10% improvement potential there, right? Especially as new volume comes in, we'll add more lanes there or add more line, you know, lay lines there as well. The larger part which we are really focusing on right now is pickup and delivery, which is approximately 18%-20% of our cost, right, and obviously, the site operations.

So collectively, between the three of them, we think there's a 15% improvement potential. There is some volume growth inbuilt into that model, but we are on track to accomplish that. So I think it is important to understand that while line haul is the largest part of our cost, it's not the only part of our cost. There's goodness to be derived in other parts of our cost structure as well. And while we attack line haul first, for the obvious reason that it's the largest part of our cost structure, there is work going on in other parts of that cost elements as well, and that's what we think will, will flow into the numbers more strongly in the, in the next two quarters.

Amit Dixit
Lead Analyst, Metals, Logistics, and Defence, ICICI Securities

So basically, while you have guided that by Q2 FY25, we will be a better positive or a better neutral in B2B, is it fair to assume that by Q1 FY25, at least you would be, you know, at the break-even level on gross margin front?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Yeah, I think that's a pretty good assumption, Amit. As you know, I don't give guidance, but that's a good assumption.

Amit Dixit
Lead Analyst, Metals, Logistics, and Defence, ICICI Securities

Okay, great. Thank you so much, and all the best.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Yash from iThought. Please go ahead.

Yash Goyal
Research Associate, iThought

Yeah, hi. Most of my questions are answered, but if you could just help, what are the key metrics you as a company would be tracking this year, targets of breaking even, right in the contract logistics in the express business? And secondly, you mentioned that the realizations are lower because, you know, of new warehouse operations. So broadly, where do you see these realizations, you know, stabilizing? And that will lead to an improvement in the EBITDA margin for the, you know, the standalone business. Am I right for that?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Yeah, sure. So let me address the second part of the question first, because just so we don't only talk about express the whole time. So I think on the contract logistics part, I think earnings, as I said, the three big drivers for us, one is obviously volume. Volume is very important. As I mentioned, I think when Aditya asked the question, we did have, we have had, you know, another contract volume gain of around INR 270 crores this year. More than half of that is yet to be monetized, and so we will see flow-through of the volume through the rest of this financial year. The second part is obviously cost control in terms of our operating costs across the sites.

A lot of our business is longer term contracts, and therefore, managing cartwheel costs is absolutely critical. The third one is really start-up situations. You know, as a growth, as you're adding up new sites every quarter, you're doing the start-ups well. Managing the start-up window and shortening the start-up window is extremely critical. Those are three big elements which are drivers for earnings growth. So, to your point, Amit, I think with the absence of the one-time charges and some of these things flowing, we feel positive about the run, you know, the runway in terms of earnings growth in the contract logistics business. We obviously have to execute that well, but those are the metrics we track internally as well.

Really it comes down to being focused in terms of how we execute it, you know, day in and day out. At the express side of the business, I think for us, you know, the important thing is to get the playbook right. I think as you, as you've seen, you know, where we've been successful with acquisitions such as what we've done with Meru or what we've even done, even with Whizzard, though it's become fully subsidiary only now, right, or even with the large business, the freight forwarding business, I think each of them are focused initially on being not to just grow, but to actually get the playbook right, so we now then have a scalable business.

I think therefore, while there is an accent definitely on volume growth and express business, I think getting the cost structure right is a very important thing as well. So the last three months or four months, we have been very aggressively pursuing the right sizing the cost structure. That will remain a focus over the next six months or so. And so our operating metrics are really around the line haul costs, right, getting the line haul costs right, getting obviously our pickup and delivery cost elements right, and ensuring that service levels remain extremely high through the network, both in terms of pack or customer promise dates, as well as in terms of DEPS, which is damages or excess or short shipments. So those are the things we are focused on. Obviously, volume growth is something which we all focus on.

So I won't kind of label the obvious point, but the real metrics which are really focused on is getting the costs right, right? And our endeavor is not just to making basically EBITDA break even by the end of the first half, but to actually build a scalable, you know, a scalable playbook between, you know, between customer promise and cost structures, and network efficiency, which we then can scale up, consistently over a period of time. And that's actually when you'll start seeing-

Yash Goyal
Research Associate, iThought

If we barring the one-time cost, you know, of new warehouse operations, what would be the gross margin, warehousing gross margin yield, which is, I think, 18, which you have mentioned in the presentation. If you remove those new warehousing openings, what might that be?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

INR 20. I think what we have mentioned there is INR 18 for the quarter. These are pre-IndAS levels. I think Aditya asked this question last quarter, so we added that footnote. But these are around INR 80 per sq ft. I think it will probably be around 20.

Yash Goyal
Research Associate, iThought

Right. Still, that would be down on a year-on-year basis, right?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Yeah, Q4 last year, yeah, it's still, but, you know, I think we've said this earlier as well. You know, my own sense is when you look at warehousing margins on a full year basis, because the business is going to be reported on a quarter-on-quarter basis for your convenience. But ultimately, you know, there are quarters when we are, for example, last year in Q4, we had peak in Q3, and we had some run up of benefits flowing through in Q4. So those got accounted in Q4, and therefore, you saw a higher number in Q4. But those are periodic numbers. I think it will stabilize very honestly at around 20.

I don't see it going to 22 this year, but I think it will go to 20, and if you get a 2%, you know, 2% improvement in gross margin on a full year, a 10,000 crore business, we think that will actually be a big earnings.

Yash Goyal
Research Associate, iThought

Fair point. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.

Sumit Kishore
Executive Director, Capital Goods, Power, Infrastructure and Logistics, Axis Capital

Hi, Ram. My first question is on last mile delivery, where we got the first full quarter benefit of Whizzard. So from this level, organically, how does the business grow for the next one year? If you could speak about that. And, you know, the certain gross margin this business has done in this quarter, what is the outlook going forward, you know, for the last mile delivery business?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Yes, I think obviously we've seen the full benefit of the last mile delivery business this quarter. As you know, Sumit, I think I mentioned earlier, you know, roughly half our business is still in MLL, within MLL, and the other half of it is actually in the Whizzard business. I think as you look forward, I think the two big drivers, from a margin perspective, obviously, your gross margins improved in Q4 compared to last year. And I think on a full year basis as well, we have seen a reasonably strong improvement in gross margins. But margins are still low. As you can see, the gross margins are around 5-5.5%.

As you look forward, I think this year we are expecting at 2024, 2025 to be a year of strong growth. When I say strong growth, I think, as you know, we kind of, you know, a broad expectation is a mid-teen growth across our entire business. So, I do expect last mile will outstrip that growth pattern, right, given where we are in terms of order intake and network expansions in that space. A larger focus there obviously is on gross margins. I think we are around 5% today. You know, over a period of time, we want to take gross margins up to 8%. That's going to come from 2, 3 things, increased purchasing power.

You know, as you know, we are combining this business in terms of buying Whizz and Whizz fleets and so on, from partners, so that's one big lever. The second one is, you know, consolidating operations or co-locating operations more consistently, right? Where we have, we have multiple sites across this business, which are within a few kilometers of each other. And we are looking at saying, how do we get some network and infrastructure leverage? And the third one is, you know, driving better productivity. With Whizzard, we get a very strong technology platform, which allows us to manage workforce productivity a lot more aggressively. That work has already started already right now, Sumit, since after we completed the second tranche and it's become a majority subsidiary.

So over a period of time, I think these three things will actually help us, you know, grow margin as well. I won't specifically comment on how much of that will happen in this fiscal. But, you know, we have, in the past, told you all that our broad expectations that our last mile delivery business will see the 8% gross margin. And we are like at five, 4.5, five now. So we have that gap to bridge. Whizzard, the Whizzard business reported around 6.5% gross margin for the quarter. So it's kind of a little bit ahead of the MLL part of the last mile delivery business.

So there's some learning and synergy should flow through as we have now completed the majority part of the acquisition. But focus for this year, Sumit, is obviously top-line growth. We expect, you know, high teens or even, you know, probably early 20% kind of growth in the business. And a substantial focus is on, you know, getting, you know, you know, crossing a large part of that journey towards 8%-10% in terms of gross margin.

Sumit Kishore
Executive Director, Capital Goods, Power, Infrastructure and Logistics, Axis Capital

Very clear. My second question, you know, just to understand how, with 3.5% quarter-on-quarter volume growth, line haul utilization could be improved from early 60s to, you know, 80%-85%. So is that because you have brought the fleet size down? Or, I mean, how does it, how does utilization improve so much with a 3.5% volume growth?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Great question, Sumit, and I'm glad you asked it, because I think it's the highest in the business. So, I think the key thing, of course, has just been our entire work on redesigning the network. So really, you know, in a plain vanilla way, you'd probably look at this saying that, you know, volume went up by 3.5%, so utilization should go up by 3.5%. That just assumes that we are running the network exactly the same way. A lot of work has gone in terms of redesigning network, changing network, vehicle frequency. So we are actually running fewer kilometers now on load than we did earlier. Right, and that's actually part of what's driven that improvement across the entire network.

Obviously, we've kind of, at the right points in our network, cut down some of our schedules as well. Since, let's say, because I'm running daily in all some locations, we've actually driven, you know, we've actually more in the taken some cutoffs in between or changed vehicle frequencies. We redesigned the routing path of the network. So those actually are either put a fair amount of that improvement in terms of utilization. Probably 7%-8% of improvement in utilization has come from that. Three and a half to four percent has come from pure volume, but inside the 3.5% of volume growth, we've also specifically churned some customers on lanes which are completely unprofitable, and added customers into lanes which were very profitable.

So there are some services, for example, I won't, I won't give a specific pin code, but let's say if we are running at 25%-30% utilization on some pin codes, we've actually, or some lanes, we've actually kind of, you know, reduced volumes in those lanes and actually brought in volume to the other lanes where we can bring in capacity. So those are three things which actually added capacity utilization. Great question, Sumit. I'm glad you asked it, because that's been a big part of our focus in the business, has been reorganizing the network, and that's why it took time to do it as well. If it was just a pure volume game, we would have probably done it much earlier.

Sumit Kishore
Executive Director, Capital Goods, Power, Infrastructure and Logistics, Axis Capital

So sure, so that is some of my understanding. For the next two quarters, if you, you know, manage again 3.5% volume growth quarter-on-quarter, along with the cost saving initiatives, that would be more than enough to get you to, uh, EBITDA breakeven for the B2B Express business by, uh, Q2 of FY 2025.

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

So you're obviously paraphrasing. History is not a good indicator of the future always. So I will not, I will, I'll resist the temptation of... I'm gonna pass on that question. All right? I think what I can tell you is that we are confident of hitting the EBITDA breakeven by Q2.

Sumit Kishore
Executive Director, Capital Goods, Power, Infrastructure and Logistics, Axis Capital

Sounds good. I wish you all the best. Yeah, thanks.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Harshal Mehta from PL Capital. Please go ahead.

Harshal Mehta
Equity Research Analyst, PL Capital

Hi, sir. My question is regarding the B2B, so actually, earlier understanding what I had is, we need to scale up to, like, 35,000 monthly to achieve EBITDA breakeven. But now with this current cost optimization thing, could it be, like, achieved with even like 30,000 volume monthly?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Harshal, I think what we had said earlier on is that we need to get volume to grow by around 30% to be able to EBITDA breakeven. I think obviously, as all of you have noted, we have seen some softness in the last two quarters, especially the quarter and last quarter, on the express business, and therefore, our emerging focus has been on driving better cost optimization. I think, I think the question we've always been asked is, you know, if everything, if you ran the business as it is right now and how much more volume do we need to up to our breakeven? The answer to that obviously was 30%, but that's not the only way to hit breakeven. Right? The answer is a combination of both.

And so what we have been focusing on is driving volume growth, but driving the right volume growth first. And that's why I kept on answering Sumit's question, in that format, because we will need volume growth. At some point in the journey, volume growth will be important, but right now, I think there's more to be accomplished from a cost improvement perspective. It is likely that if we can, as we hold this cost improvement, we may not need that 30% growth in volume to hit EBITDA breakeven.

Harshal Mehta
Equity Research Analyst, PL Capital

Got it.

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

We are focused on that because ultimately, the game doesn't stop with breaking EBITDA breakeven. There obviously is a bit of a sticker shock issue right now, given the carry it has on our earnings. But, you know, we've acquired and are building the business to become much larger than and be more impactful than just being EBITDA breakeven. So the volume focus remains pretty strong. It's just about getting the right volume first and then focusing on overall volume.

Harshal Mehta
Equity Research Analyst, PL Capital

Got it. Got it. And sir, how much would be the white space in the warehouse currently?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

3%.

Harshal Mehta
Equity Research Analyst, PL Capital

Okay, and sir, CapEx for next year?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Sorry, on 4%. I think our is around 4%.

Harshal Mehta
Equity Research Analyst, PL Capital

Okay. So CapEx for next year?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Similar to this year.

Harshal Mehta
Equity Research Analyst, PL Capital

Okay. Thank you, sir.

Operator

Thank you.

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Oh, sorry, similar to last year.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Ketan Athavale from Robo Capital. Please go ahead.

Ketan Athavale
Analyst, RoboCapital

Hello, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. In our PPT, we have mentioned we will reach INR 10,000 crores revenue by FY 2026. So I wanted to know what will be the drivers for the same? And if you can give the margin expectation for next two years, EBITDA margin?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

I'll answer the first question first, Ketan. We don't give guidance on annualized margins, so of course, we have to pass on that question. I think on margin, what we have said is, over the cycle, we expect to be around 2.5%-3% on the contract logistics business, which is MLL, standalone for large part, and we expect the other businesses, which is the network businesses, to be around 3%-4%. That goal still remains. I won't timestamp that goal, but it's clear. In terms, I think, of revenue growth, I think our focus really has been on two things, and I think one has to split the business into three parts as you look at our revenue story.

The first one is our contract logistics business, which right now is running around INR 4,500 crores. We expect that to grow at around 15%-17% over the next three years. This year was a particularly challenging year as we saw a slowdown across most of our end markets. But, as I said, we are getting back to that growth point, now, and we are hoping that we can sustain that growth through market growth as well as more penetration by us. So that's one part of the growth, which probably gets us around INR 6,000 crores in that range. The second part of it is the network services business, which kind of all upscale now. The forwarding business had made progress. It's kind of moved a bit backwards because of global macros.

The B2B Express business is in a turnaround phase, and the last mile delivery business, of course, is in a scale-up phase. So those three businesses, we do expect over the next three years, three years or a little bit more than three years, will scale up to INR 750-INR 800 crores each. Right? That is not a very significant growth. In percentage, it may look large, but in terms of the markets which we operate in and the value propositions we have, if we develop the right offerings, we believe we are very confident that we can actually drive that growth. Now, for example, the express business today, you know, even at INR 800 crores, will probably be around 700,000-800,000 tons, which is not a very large number in the context of the world industry.

That's still probably be around 6%, 5%-6% market share. So these are not, these are not exceptional moves. They're big moves, but they are, they are, they're not, you know, they're not something which we think are in complete stretch. And so that's the second part. So between six, 6.5 and 2.5, we get around INR 9,000 crore. And obviously, the mobility business is right now running at a run rate of around INR 360 crore. INR 328 crore, actually, was our important number, for the year just ended. And, we are sitting at around, INR 350, INR 360 crore of run rate. And so that's something which we obviously are a bit dependent on larger macros on that, because return to work, et cetera, is stabilized.

So there's a little bit of—I would say that's the one which is a bit hard one to timestamp or the hardest one to timestamp. But those are three buckets in terms of driving our growth. You know, the way we are organized inside the company, each of these businesses has individual business leaders. They all have specific business plans for each of them, and therefore, they are individually focused on driving growth in the business, and that's what they are accountable for. But we focus on driving the synergy across the business. That's a multiplier effect.

Ketan Athavale
Analyst, RoboCapital

Yeah, got it. Thank you. And what will be, will the depreciation stabilize at current run rate or do we expect further increase?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

I think there should be moderate increases. As I said just now, Ketan, I think the earlier person who asked the question, we do expect to add CapEx in the same line as what we are doing now, and that's something which I think will continue. I think on the warehousing side, you know, you've seen our yields at a pre-rent, at a pre-indias level, around 12.5, 13%. So we do continue to add warehousing over a period of time. As you add the warehousing, you'll see, you know, an RTO asset line impact on the asset, on the depreciation line, because those assets are in class and in reported RTO assets. Right, and there's a depreciation and an interest cost they carry, right?

But those are the two big things which will actually move. We don't see a substantial other shift from an organic basis across our business.

Operator

Thank you. Before we take the next question, a reminder to participants to please limit your questions to two per participant. Should you have a follow-up question, we request you to rejoin the queue. We take the next question from Nitin Gandhi from Inoquest Advisors. Please go ahead.

Nitin Gandhi
Director, Inoquest Advisors

Yeah, thanks for taking my question. Just a small confirmation, these five businesses which are making losses at that level, so do we expect them to be break even or quite positive in this thing?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

I'm sorry, can you repeat that question, Nitin? I couldn't get it.

Nitin Gandhi
Director, Inoquest Advisors

The five businesses, that is Mobility, Express, 2x2, V-Link, and Whizzard, which are in losses this year. Will they be break even and or back positive this year?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Because Whizzard will be, I think across those businesses, I think Whizzard, the large business will be part positive. The mobility business was, is part positive on a run rate basis, will remain, it'll be profitable for the full year, as it was this year as well. 2x2 and V-Link also we expect to be profitable for the year. Both of all of them should show profit improvement this year. I think the challenge will still remain the Express business. I think we are expecting to be EBITDA positive by the, by the second half or by the, by the second quarter of the year.

Between EBITDA and PBT, we have approximately INR 30-INR 35 crore kind of impact within the interest on the long-term debt, by the write-off of the fixed assets, the depreciation of some of the assets. Right, and so those will probably continue over a period of time, until we get volume to recover that. But the rest of the businesses, we expect they tend to be profitable and should accelerate their profitability this year.

Nitin Gandhi
Director, Inoquest Advisors

Wish you all the best for Express. We'll talk maybe after second half. All the best.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Anshul Aggarwal from Emkay. Please go ahead.

Anshul Agrawal
Equity Analyst, Emkay Global Financial Services

Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. Ram, what could be the sustainable growth or EBITDA margins for the Express business once our cost optimizations are completed?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

So I think there are a couple of things. I think cost optimization is really a journey to EBITDA positivity, right? Obviously, the entire volume, which has to pick up after that. I think what we have pegged the business at from a longer-term perspective is a 4% EBITDA level, Anshul, and we are confident that's actually very possible. Well, others in the industry are actually above that number, but they also have higher volume points. So we do feel pretty good about our ability to hit that. I won't go into line item breakups because it kind of complicates the story. As I said, the story is a combination of volume and cost optimization. And since it's an infrastructure business, we put the infra before we actually sell it. You know, there is an interplay between cost and volume as well.

But when it settles down, and as I, you know, and in our business plan for the, for both the acquisition and the business, you know, which I've shared very openly with all of, the investors in the past, we expect, that the business to be around 4% back, and as you've transferred, we, we feel pretty confident that we'll get there. They're a couple of quarters behind, because where the integration went, but we are, repivoting back on that path.

Anshul Agrawal
Equity Analyst, Emkay Global Financial Services

Sure, helpful. Just a follow-up on that. So, I understand that the B2B Express industry is going through a cyclical downturn, but when do we expect to grow probably at industry level, or would it be, say, in FY 26 or beyond?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

...No, I think we start seeing that kind of higher growth level starting from the second half of this year itself. I think what we must understand is, as I said, really, even though we have signed up new logos, we've been selective about adding lane-wise volumes because we've been trying to optimize it for the right volume. It's not that volume is not available. In all segments, you know, we are 3%-3.5% market share, so it's not like we have a very large market share. As you also know, from a synergy perspective, we have a lot of customers in contract logistics, forwarding set who also use Express. So, our sales strategy, you know, is also driven by the multiplier we get from inside. We are very complementary to the other businesses as well.

So your volume will start coming back, I think, in more material during the second half of the year. And I think our volume growth, you know, given our current market share, I think our volume growth is not a function necessarily of the overall industry. And I believe we can actually grow at the right volume. Because the right volume, we can grow even if the market is not growing, because, you know, we are not... We have a great offering. We are not a significant market share today, and we have great synergy with the rest of our portfolio.

Anshul Agrawal
Equity Analyst, Emkay Global Financial Services

Very helpful. Thanks, Ram.

Operator

Thank you. Due to time constraints, we'll be able to take one last question. We take the last question from the line of Rohit Suresh from Samatva Investments. Please go ahead.

Rohit Suresh
Equity Research Analyst, Samatva Investments

Good evening, sir, and thank you for the opportunity. So my first question would be, could you give some clarity on which sectors you're actually seeing good demand and which sectors are actually struggling currently? And what's your outlook for the year going ahead?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

I think across the portfolio, I think I already gave outlook. We are expecting an early teen kind of growth rate across the entire portfolio. Right. Different parts of our businesses are in slightly different positions, Rohit. As I said, due to contract logistics, there is more consolidation, whereas the other businesses are in some point of scale-up. So they should probably, obviously tend to or intend to grow faster. But overall, across the portfolio, early teen numbers, I think where we are seeing volume growth coming from, obviously automotive is still stable and strong. Right. We do expect to see growth in the FMCG and durables business, which remains positive for us.

A lot of business has come up for rebuild and drink and e-commerce is kind of coming back specifically in specific niches. So those are three big drivers, I think, for growth from an end market perspective. And those, you know, those are the ones which we think will continue to be over the rest of the year as well. I think the one, I guess, the one call out or watch out is just really Ag. We believe right now that we have seen much of that softness play out already. You know, Q4 volume is very soft, adjusting for some of that, those lead indicators. There will be seasonal variations in Ag, which are always there because the way, because of farm business, that farm sector, that's our seasonality.

But that's the one call out in terms of specific softness, which is there, which continues to be there. I think the other call out I would make is that the pricing environment is actually pretty competitive. Right. You know, as we have got past the COVID situation, I think there is a lot more tightness in pricing, and that kind of covers all our segments and therefore, the discipline on pricing and the discipline on execution remains, you know, one fly on the wall to watch for all the time.

Rohit Suresh
Equity Research Analyst, Samatva Investments

Got it. Got it, sir. So just one last question would be on the fuel cost. So how easily are we able to pass on the fuel cost right now? Are we facing any challenges on that front?

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

Again, different parts of business, I, I'd say, you know, we do it, the express business, we obviously run this. We don't... We, we're not running it for others or running it for ourselves. And we are, we do get the benefit or the cost of it. Last quarter, fuel prices did come down, both diesel and, and I think, you know, ATF actually came down as well, but we did see, some creep of that benefit, but not very substantial because they were not very significant movements. On the contract logistics business, I mean, largely run distribution and, and, and line haul. Almost all our customer contracts are fuel indexed, so we don't carry the exposure of price increases of inflation. We pass on most of the benefits of price, reducing prices to our customers as well.

The model is fairly stable in that sense. You're asking about the model. The model is fairly stable. There are a little bit of, you know, windows there, because there are always, you know, price triggers, triggers happen, but those are also passed back to our customer, our supply base in the same way, and therefore we are not exposed to it.

Rohit Suresh
Equity Research Analyst, Samatva Investments

Got it, sir. Thank you so much for answering and all the details.

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

All right.

Operator

Thank you very much. That was the last question. I would now like to hand the conference back to the management team for closing comments.

Rampraveen Swaminathan
MD and CEO, Mahindra Logistics Limited

All right. Thank you, everyone. I hope we've been able to answer all your questions satisfactorily, satisfactorily. However, if you have any further clarifications or you want to know more about the company, please do contact our investor relations team at MLL or at SGA, who are our investor relations advisors. Thank you for your continued interest in the business and in our company, and thank you for joining us this afternoon.

Operator

Thank you very much. On behalf of Mahindra Logistics Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect your lines.

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