Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Mahanagar Gas Ltd Q3 FY 2025 earnings conference call, hosted by Antique Stock Broking Ltd. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on a touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Varatharajan Sivasankaran from Antique Stock Broking Ltd. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good evening, everyone. It is my pleasure to welcome the management of MGL and all the participants to this results conference call. We have with us Mr. Ashu Shinghal, Managing Director, Mr. Sanjay Shende, Deputy Managing Director, Mr. Rajesh Patel, CFO, Mr. Mukesh Panhotra, AVP Marketing from the management side. Before handing over the call for the opening remarks to the management, I would like to run you through the disclosure and disclaimer as well. Some of the statements made in today's discussion may be forward-looking in nature, and we believe that expectations contained in the statement are reasonable. However, these statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that may lead to different results. We urge you to consider that quarterly numbers are not a reflection of long-term trends or indication of clear results.
Having said that, I will now hand over the call to the management for the opening remarks. The floor is yours.
Thank you, and a very good afternoon to all. And I welcome, on behalf of MGL management, I welcome all to the earnings call of MGL for the third quarter of the financial year 2024, 2025. I would like to thank all of you for attending this call today. MGL continues to create CGD infrastructure across its business segments in the licensed area. During the quarter, 98,469 domestic households were connected, and therefore we have established connectivity for nearly 2.68 million households in a cumulative manner. We have laid 99.07 km of steel and PE pipeline, taking the total length to over 7,224 km. We also added nine CNG stations during this quarter. And with this, we have 361 stations as of 31st December 2024. We also have added 83 Industrial and Commercial customers during this quarter. And as of 31st December 2024, we have 4,974 Industrial and Commercial customers.
In relation to our Raigad geographical area, up to December 2024, we have connected 87,794 domestic households and 55 CNG stations, which are currently operational. During the quarter, we have laid 12.41 km of pipeline in Raigad, taking the total length to 445.67 km. With respect to Unison Enviro Pvt Ltd , the wholly owned subsidiary, the company has added three CNG stations during this quarter, a total of 67 CNG stations as of 31st December. During the quarter, 4,774 domestic households were connected, and cumulative household connections are at 34,000,003 for UEPL, and they have 63 Industrial and Commercial customers as of 31st December. Average gas sales for the nine months ending 31st December 2024 is 4.006 MMSCMD, whereas it was 3.554 MMSCMD in the corresponding period last year, which is an increase of 12.75%.
Sales volume in the case of CNG have also increased from 2.566 MMSCMD to 2.859 MMSCMD, which is an increase of 11.44%. In case of Industrial and Commercial, the volumes have increased from 0.482 MMSCMD to 0.604 MMSCMD, which is an increase of 25.52%, and the volumes for domestic CNG have increased from 0.506 MMSCMD to 0.542 MMSCMD, which is an increase of 7.23%. During this quarter, the overall average gas sales volume is 4.116 MMSCMD, as compared to the previous quarter volume of 4.042 MMSCMD, which is an increase of 1.84%. Sales volume in the case of CNG is standing at 2.919 MMSCMD , as compared to the previous quarter of 2.886 MMSCMD, with an increase of 1.16%. In the case of Industrial and Commercial, the volume is 0.646 MMSCMD , as compared to the previous quarter of 0.628 MMSCMD . That is an increase of 2.86%.
Sales for the domestic PNG is 0.551, as compared to the last quarter of 0.528 MMSCMD, which is an increase of 4.32%. EBITDA for the nine months ending December 2024 is INR 1,131 crore, and net profit after tax is INR 793 crore. For the current quarter, EBITDA is INR 31 crore, and net profit after tax is INR 225 crore. Coming to UEPL during the quarter, they have achieved an overall average gas volume of sales volume of 0.192 MMSCMD , as against 0.164 MMSCMD in the previous quarter, which is an increase of 17.38%. Current quarter volume consists of CNG volume of 0.177 MMSCMD and PNG volume of 0.015 MMSCMD. Therefore, MGL, on a consolidated entity, has achieved total sales volume for the quarter as 4.308 MMSCMD. Average gas sales for UEPL for the nine months ending 31st December 2024 is 0.175 MMSCMD , consisting of CNG volume of 0.162 MMSCMD , and PNG volume of 0.013 MMSCMD.
MGL, as a consolidated entity, has achieved total gas sales volume for nine months ending December 31st, 2024, of 4.181 MMSCMD. The scheme of amalgamation or merger of UEPL with MGL was approved by the Board in October 2024 last year, and the scheme was submitted to NCLT Mumbai on 6th December 2024. The matter was heard by the Mumbai bench on January 17th, 2025, and they have reserved the pronouncement of its interim order. With respect to Mahanagar LNG Pvt Ltd, a JV of MGL with BLNG in the business of operating LNG as a fuel-to-vehicle, has commissioned its first LNG station at Aurangabad in the month of October 2024 and has sold during the quarter 91 tons of LNG, with its present sale of around 2,000 kg per day.
It may be noted that there is a reduction in APM allocation in two tranches in the month of October and November across all CGDs. However, part of the APM allocation has been reinstated with effect from 16th January 2025. Thus, currently, MGL is having 100% APM allocation for its domestic gas and approximately 50% allocation for its CNG sales volume. There is a positive development that in a Mumbai High Court order dated 9th January, with respect to Suo Motu Public Interest Litigation, they have flagged serious concerns over worrisome pollution levels in the city of Mumbai and MMR region, directing the state government to form a committee to study feasibility of phasing out diesel and petrol-driven vehicles from the roads of Mumbai and permit only motor vehicles which run on CNG and electric vehicles to reduce pollution from the vehicles.
Further, the court has directed MPCB to vigorously monitor and take stringent action against polluting industrial units in the region. In response to this, the Transport Department of Maharashtra has issued a notification forming committee on 22nd January to study and give their report within three months' time under the chairmanship of Sri Sudhir Kumar Srivastava, retired IAS officer, wherein MD MGL has been included as one of the committee members. The Mumbai High Court order is a very positive development for controlling pollution in the city of Mumbai and MMR region and has provided opportunity to companies like MGL also, who are providing cleaner fuel for the transport sector and industry to contribute to the reduction of environmental pollution. This is in line with what has happened in NCR in Delhi also a few years back.
MGL continues its journey of diversifying and seizing the opportunity in the new energy-related businesses by investing in a greenfield project for manufacturing of lithium-ion cells for electric vehicle batteries and other applications. The company has entered into a joint venture agreement with IBC, based out of U.S.A., for setting up an EV facility in the state of Karnataka in this quarter. MGL has invested INR 35 crore for equity holding of 44% in JV company International Battery Company India Private Limited in the month of January 2025. MGL, for its annual report 2024, has bagged a bronze award at 14th PRCI Excellence Award 2024 for its remarkable annual report from Public Relations Council of India. In January 2025, MGL has been conferred with GreenTech Global Workplace Safety Award 2024 for its outstanding achievement under Excellence Safety Training category.
I'm happy to announce that the board has approved an interim dividend at the rate of 120%, that is INR 12 crore per equity share for the current financial year. With this, I conclude and would now like to open the floor for the questions. Thank you very much for patience here.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question- and- answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Yogesh Patil from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question, sir, and congratulations for the good set of numbers. As you mentioned, the recent news flow, the government of Maharashtra has set up a panel on exploring phasing out of petrol and diesel vehicles in the Mumbai metro region. We wanted to understand how it will be implemented. That's one thing. And what kind of CNG volume growth you can see from this kind of a decision? Any ballpark number, if you could share with us, that would be really helpful.
It is a very preliminary stage to predict how it will be unfolding itself. The main point what we wanted to make was that pollution is increasing in Mumbai, which is known to all the citizens here. I mean, they're getting impacted. So taking note of this, Mumbai High Court, Bombay High Court has Suo Motu taken a PIL and given this direction that they wanted to take immediate steps for two particular things. One is the vehicular pollution, which is they wanted to replace petrol and diesel in a phased manner by electric vehicles and CNG. And second, the polluting industries can be moved out, and/or they can be promoted to use gas as a fuel. Similar developments have happened in the late 1990s or early 2000s in NCR.
We have seen that in the span of three, four years, the CNG volumes have picked up in IGL in that particular area. It depends that once the committee gives its recommendation in three months' time, which is the time given by the court to submit its report, if similar there are, I mean, NCR and Mumbai are different regions. Here, the land problem is much more severe. It depends on what type of allocation or what type of implementation plan is agreed by the government and authority. Currently, CNG volumes are growing at the rate of around 11% in nine months of last Q3 and this Q3. If we more, I mean, it depends on how the recommendations are implemented. We can see a growth of around 15%-20% in case everything goes in favor of CNG.
Sir, Mumbai High Court has also directed to BMC that the city bakery unit should not use the polluting fuel like oil or coal. And they have directed bakeries to convert to use a gas or other green fuel in the next one year. What is the additional PNG Commercial volume do you expect from this move? And also, correct me if the PNG Commercial volume increases, then it also boosts the overall price realization of a company. Because as per our understanding, the PNG Commercial is the costliest product among the all.
So, I think when you refer to Commercial, within Commercial, there are two, three categories. The realization, which is linked to use of LPG commercial bottles, is generally higher, which is, I think, falling into a restaurant category. I'm not too sure about bakeries. We may fall in which category. Mostly, yes, there will be a better realization, but not as high as a commercial A, which is linked to commercial bottled LPG. Okay. That is one. Just to add with respect to the court order, I think based on the assessment, we have a preliminary assessment of the number of vehicles in our geographies. Okay. Within that, if I take the number of commercial vehicles, which are mostly on diesel, are going to get impacted initially, and that number is around 4 lakh in our geography.
Currently, we have around 38,000 such commercial vehicles already on CNG, which is about 9.5%, 10% penetration. We see that this Commercial Vehicle segment could be a volume churner for us if something happens because that could be the first step to control pollution in terms of fuel vehicle-related fuel.
So the volume offtake will not be very huge in terms of the bakeries and others because we are a small establishment, and it takes some time to connect to them also. It will not be a very significant thing.
Sir, next question, sir. CNG volume is growing more than 10% last four quarters consistently. Now, what would be your guidance for the CNG volume in the upcoming year? Will you a little bit inch up to the 8%, 9% for the FY 2026, 2027?
No, if you talk about the overall volumes, we were thinking about 8% year-on-year growth. But in nine months, we have already clocked 11% growth from the last whole financial year numbers. So if we take Q4 also into account, maybe we will clock around 12.5%, 13% growth year-on-year. Now, maybe next year, we will not be able to have that much number, but we are comfortable that around 10% numbers, we will be able to clock next financial year also and which will be definitely CNG will be a main contributor in that growth along with Industrial and Commercial segment.
Thanks a lot, sir. I'll come back in a bit.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we request you to restrict the questions to two participants. In case of any follow-up question, please rejoin the queue. The next question is from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Good evening. Just firstly, on the pricing and margin side, so you did take two price hikes of INR 2 crore and INR 1 crore kg each on CNG, but the margin still has dropped. So are you looking back to go back to, let's say, INR 10 crore or higher margin as we were doing, let's say, in the last several quarters, or this should be seen as a more stabilized margin now?
The margins have, I mean, there has been some impact because we were reassessing our portfolio, and the price hike has happened in late November, and the second rise has happened somewhere in January.
Yes. January, so there was some delayed response, and secondly, we have contracted some midterm gas also from the existing suppliers for giving a repeat order. Thirdly, some reinstatement of LNG has happened as late as 16th of January, so the impact on the margins will be slightly reduced, you're right, but it will not be maybe as low as the Q3 results, so we may be improving our performance in Q4, and if you see, last year, we have had EBITDA per SCM of INR 13.95 crore, and for these nine months, we have EBITDA per SCM of INR 10.3 per SCM, so it is not very off the mark of the guidance which we have given about INR 10 crore-INR 12 crore , so we expect similar range to continue.
Depending on the size of LNG, Henry Hub, and other contracts, we may be very comfortable in this range, 9%-11% or 10%-12% range. I mean, it depends on so many other things, so we can't be very particular about what will be the range. We are in a comfortable position because of, one, that we have made some procurement portfolio adjustments. Second, there has been reinstatement of APM allocation from 16th of January.
Sure. So do you mean to say no further price hike is needed in that sense after this restoration of the APM allocation?
More or less, 50% of the gas cost has been restored, and we have already taken a hike in the range of 50%. Okay. One factor which is crucial as of today is also exchange rate because exchange rate has been inching up and around INR 85.5 crore or INR 86 crore. So that may have some impact depending on how it moves going forward. But more or less, we are back to almost neutral situation of what we were in mid-October as of today in January, I'm saying.
Just to add, I mean, I know that investors are more particular about both the things. One, that the margin. Second is the volume. So we also have a very clear-cut, I mean, line of sight for volume growth, which is more important for the longevity of the company. Margins can adjust for some time, maybe slightly higher or lower.
Understood. And on the volume per se, so you have been, I think, talking about close to 7%, 8% ex of UEPL. So with UEPL, can we look at double-digit growth now? I mean, I believe UEPL will grow at a faster rate than the core portfolio.
We are already clocking double-digit growth as of now. If you see nine months this year compared to nine months last year, okay. UEPL, all the three geographical areas, as well as Raigad, both will see at least 20%+ growth. There is a usual growth in GA2, as well as GA1, some margin, at least usual growth of 4%-5%. We are hopeful that at least for a few quarters, we will see double-digit growth. As sir said earlier, we can achieve an annual growth of around 10%. Also, there is now that high court order. We hope that that will turn out positive, and we will be able to achieve more.
And also, in terms of your CNG, sorry, yeah.
Yeah, 8%. What we had said is, I mean, we have already outperformed standalone on MGL basis only. If you add on UEPL because it has a small volume, but the growth is much higher there, maybe more + 20%. So collectively, on consolidated basis, we are around 12% growth as of now, 12% to 12.5%. So in the year end, we expect it to be around 13% or 13.5%. Next year also, we definitely should be at least in the double digit here.
Sure. Got it. And also.
Mr. Murarka, may we request you to please rejoin the queue? We have participants waiting for the turn. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we are requested to kindly restrict your questions to two participants. The next question is from the line of Probal Sen from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, just wanted to get a little bit of sense of what are the CapEx plans, if you can break it down between the different GAs, including for Unison? And also, if you can get a sense, give us a sense of how much to be spent on CNG, how much on network, and so on. That was my first question.
See, UEPL standalone should spend in the range of around INR 125 crore- INR 150 crore this year, at least. Okay, and it will be further up maybe next year because we have now broken ground, and the groundwork is done. So we'll be able to do more CapEx on CNG stations, etc. And it could go from INR 150 crore- INR 200 crore next financial year. As far as MGL is concerned, already INR 650 crore+ CapEx has been done in these nine months here. And we expect anywhere between INR 200 crore-250 crore additional CapEx in Q4 as well. Out of these, major will be on steel and low-pressure pipelines. Okay, and roughly INR 200 crore or ± 10% on CNG. And balance is on steel grid and LNG last mile connectivity.
Okay. Sir, in terms you mentioned about the EV initiatives that are being taken, any sense you can give us of when these actually start contributing to revenue in a meaningful way, and what kind of potential do you actually see based on the investments that have been made as of now?
I mean, we have started two investments in EV. One is 31% equity in three-wheeler manufacturing company in Bangalore. And second is a retail joint venture which we have made with IBC, International Battery Company. So in this IBC, we are investing around first phase INR 380 crore, with a total CapEx of INR 870 crore. And after the, depending on the performance of the first phase, we can go up to 5 GW factory. The first phase will be 500 MW two plants, so 1 GW factory . So it depends. Like one and a half year, we will be able to commission phase one, and maybe within a few more months, phase two of another 500 MW or 1 GW plant. So it will start earning revenues from one and a half years from now, and it will gradually pick up.
We have 40% equity in the joint venture, and 60% is with the partners. The numbers will be in phase one around, if I can get you on that.
We are roughly estimating, or while estimating this, evaluating this project, we have taken a discounted rate of around 18% also. We expect that return should come because it's a very, very niche kind of area, so higher rate has been applied. Okay. But.
18% IRR is the assumption, sir?
The whole project cost. Okay. INR 1,000 crore revenue is there around for 1 GW factory.
Sorry, sir? INR 1,000 crores per gigawatt?
Yeah. Around that number, INR 900 crore-INR 1,000 crore.
Understood.
It is a very, very primitive stage. Why I'm saying? Because that per sale realization could range between $100 to whatever. So right now, we are not in a position to give you the confirmed number because once after setting up the plants, already the trial runs are going on for testing the cells which are manufactured by the prototype plant already in South Korea. So once we get full customer base and understanding of this, we'll be in a better position to talk about what kind of sales revenue and margin will come. But surely, when you look at the EV cell as a market, the kind of capacity which we are putting up is very, very small compared to the requirement in India. Because currently, all the EV cells are being imported in India, and then battery packs are made. Okay.
So most of the manufacturers who may not have their own facility of having the battery pack and the EV cell tier, we will be able to push this. And considering the demand in India, based on whatever survey or the studies we have done, 1 GW is a very, very small number. Okay.
Sir, if I can ask a follow-up, are we already speaking to some customers with respect to this project?
The company is not only speaking, but the batteries which are manufactured in the prototype plant at South Korea are being put into the vehicle with the customers. They are tested. We are taking out the reports, and all that has been already done since last one year. Okay. And most of the reports as of now are positive, and we are hopeful that customers.
We are already in discussion with some of the customers, and very positive responses have come. But the final type of contracts will happen once we get more clarity on the final deadline when the project will start producing. And there's enough time for doing that.
Understood, sir. Thank you very much. I'll come back in the queue . Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Gagan Dixit from Elara Securities. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question, sir. For the CNG, this allocation, when you say 50%, so that 50% means that $6.5 that the APM gas, that you are getting. If my understanding is correct?
That's right.
Okay. And so what are the overall allocation for the CNG? I mean, this other than the APM, I mean, what is the new well gas share? And what is the, I mean, HPHT gas?
See, currently, as you said, for CNG, we are getting 1.5 million. Another 0 .5 million of APM is available for domestic. Okay. Other than that, for Q3, company had tied up 1.25 MMSCMD of Henry Hub gas through almost four contracts and HPHT of 0.5 million. And there is an old Reliance contract into Brent of around 0.1 MMSCMD. So we were left with hardly 0.04 MMSCMD or 0.5 MMSCMD for an average volume. After this quarter, we have hiked our Henry Hub contracts to almost 1.45 MMSCMD. Okay. And we are getting small amount of NWG, but the long-term clarity on the NWG is not available as of now. Maybe it will start very soon in this month only. Then we will be able to announce what is the contract with respect to NWG.
We expect that it should be in the range of 0.25 MMSCMD , maybe this month mid or so. Okay. Already, there is a HPHT contract which has come up in this month from ONGC and RIL both. And some more HPHT bid is going to happen most likely in April by RIL, almost of 5 MMSCMD -6 MMSCMD. And when you compare today NWG price and Henry Hub price or HPHT, there is not much difference. Okay.
Sir, my second question is about.
May I request you to please come back in the queue, sir?
Okay. Yeah.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of S. Ramesh from Nirmal Bang Equities. Please go ahead.
Thank you and good evening. If you look at the cell manufacturing project this year, any detail you can share in terms of the overall tax rate you'll have to pay for that project? Will it be at 15%? And secondly, any sense you can give us on the VAT rate or GST on CapEx and the inputs and the final lithium-ion cell?
See, this is, I mean, as I told in the last time, also INR 875 crore is the total CapEx. 40% we are funding as equity. And for phase two, that means from moving from 1 GW to 4 GW, the CapEx will be in the range of around cumulatively INR 3,700 crore. Tax rates on that.
I will come back to you separately on this because I don't have the figures handy. Otherwise, I would have discussed them.
The selling price will be on the market price, like whatever imports are happening from China. Similar prices will be offered to the market because that is the market price as of now. Whatever calculations we have done for the profitability of the project is based on import parity price of China. The positive side of it is which we have not considered is in case some duty is levied on the imports from China, especially on the import of battery cells, that will be upside to the project, which we have not considered on the base case. Things may look very positive as Rajesh explained that out of the total requirement of more than 100 GW we are just talking about 1 GW and maybe other plants which are going to announce or expected is not more than 7 GW, 8 GW.
So we expect that if more fillip or more push is given to the domestic manufacturing, this can be a very good initiative because we are the only company who has the project ready, which is tested on road from the pilot which has been set up at Korea. And the same setup is going to be repeated in Bangalore. So that's why we are very positive about this investment.
Okay. On the consolidated numbers and the standalone numbers, if you adjust for the difference, I get a revenue of INR 275 crore to the EBITDA of INR 154 crore. So is that number correct for UEPL, which means in third quarter, it's about INR 102 crore revenue and INR 84 crore? The market seems to be very high. So can you put the UEPL performance in context based on these numbers?
Yeah. Absolutely. So the revenue that was generated during Q3 was INR 102 crores for UEPL with net profit of about INR 1.27 crore. And cumulative for the nine months ended, UEPL earned INR 275 crore. And the net profit after tax generated is INR 17.51 crore.
Yeah. So the question is, at the EBITDA level, numbers are very high.
So on a consolidated, you may see that compared to MGL standalone, there is a minor reduction. Okay. Now, that happens because of the investments which MGL has made. And there is a large component of authorization cost which gets amortization on a consolidated basis. That amortization is a little higher than the profit which are earned currently by UEPL. And that is why on consolidated basis, you may see MGL plus UEPL standalone does not add up to MGL, or it is slightly lesser than MGL. Okay.
No, but based on the numbers [audio distortion]
Yeah. Sorry. Please go ahead.
Am I able to answer your query or inquisitiveness on consolidated results?
No, that is fine. But if you go by the numbers you have shared for UEPL by itself, from EBITDA to the PAT, there's a fairly substantial reduction. So there is a large component of depreciation interest there because the margins are pretty high. So from that margin, the net margin is very low. So what is happening below the line in terms of depreciation?
Compared to MGL, there are two components. One is depreciation, you are right. Another is interest cost is also there in UEPL. Okay. So if you take cash EBITDA, it is generating around INR 50 crore-INR 55 crore cash EBITDA per annum as of now. And this interest is also within the group. It is MGL's loan which is getting accounted as a finance cost in the books of UEPL. Okay.
Then one last thought. If you look at the vehicle additions and the growth in the CNG vehicles of around 46% year- to- date, do you think this current run rate in your GAs will sustain, or do you see some upside in the next 12-18 months? What are the sense you get on vehicle additions? And can you give us some split on the number of vehicles being added across categories?
We have already, see, if you compare last nine months, last year, nine months, we have had around 57,000 vehicle additions as compared to 71,000 vehicle additions in our GAs in these nine months of this current financial year, so if we take Q4 into account, maybe we will close to 1 lakh volume addition, which will be very high as compared to our last year and previous year's performance, so you are right. 46% growth has happened across India on CNG, which has outperformed so many other fuels, and this impact is definitely a good sign for CNG whole as an industry as a whole, and we expect that the growth numbers which we are seeing of 10% for nine months comparison of last financial year, we will be able to maintain it for at least one, two years.
From there, we will see how the sector is performing.
Thank you very much. I wish you all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kirtan Mehta from Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. After this UEPL merger, will we be able to use any tax synergies? Are there any past tax losses which can be utilized?
In the books of UEPL, currently, there are tax losses and accumulated depreciation around INR 350 million crore put together that we will be able to absorb. Also, the CapEx which we are incurring today, INR 1.5 billion crore odd, and they are not able to absorb that depreciation. On a merged entity basis, we will be able to absorb that early. Of course, UEPL would have absorbed both accumulated losses as well as the CapEx, but it would have taken, let's say, three, four years from now, whereas MGL will be able to take that benefit immediately.
Right, sir. The second question was about the APM rein statement. I believe the next round of the reallocation would be around February 16th or so. So are we confident that the 51% would remain at the similar level during the February, or is there a possibility of part reversal again?
So I think readjustment has happened two, three times. One was 16th October, then 16th November, and now 16th January. This readjustment has happened. Earlier was deallocation, means two cuts were there. Now, in our information, as far as we understand, the next deallocation or readjustment will happen somewhere from 1st of April because around 7% per annum is recommended to be reduced from APM and put into NWG. The other development we know is that whatever cut from APM will happen will be allocated to CGD entities on prorata basis at NWG prices. So basically, the gas will be available APM. The same quantity will be reallocated on prorata basis to CGD at NWG prices. And we expect that to happen somewhere from 1st of April.
Right. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pratyush Kamal from InCred Equities. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. Yeah. So I have a few set of questions which I wanted to ask. First is regarding your sourcing. So you do have a couple of contracts which are linked to Henry Hub and some are linked to Brent, right? I just wanted to understand what is the pricing mechanism for these contracts and what is the general sourcing mix for you? What percentage of the total volumes do you get from Henry Hub versus Brent versus APM, etc.?
See, general pricing under this contract has a slope linked to the index. So in case of Henry Hub, it is Henry Hub is the index. There will be a constant. There will be a slope to the index and some fixed cost, okay, whether it is a Henry Hub contract or a Brent contract. So this is the normal term contract structure. Okay. As far as NGL is concerned, I already said, I think in the last question, overall, including domestic, we are as of now getting 2 million+ MMSCMD. As of today, that means in January, we have already tied up Henry Hub contracts, all contracts put together around 1.45 MMSCMD. HPHT is around 0.5 million, okay? And rest is spot and whatever NWG we have. Small amount of NWG is coming on a short-term basis.
But as sir said, there will be a long-term allocation or allocation like APM in the near future, maybe this month or by April also. Okay.
And what are the slopes and fixed components when you talk about Brent contract and Henry Hub?
Confidential between the supplier and us. We cannot disclose them in the public domain.
Okay. Okay, sir, and what is the landed cost approximately for you when you talk about the Brent contract versus the Henry Hub contract, the landed cost for you, for the company?
So as of now, considering the indices, with respect to Henry Hub, it ranges between $9.5-$10.5. HPHT is around that is, I think, available in the public domain. Including transportation, it should go around $11, which has $1 per MMBTU transportation and around $10.25 or so as a basic rate.
Understood. And Brent one?
Sorry to interrupt you, Mr. Kamal.
Brent is an old contract, and that is around 7.5 inclusive of transportation as far as we are concerned.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sabri Hazarika from Emkay Global Financial Services. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Two questions. Firstly, your volume breakup between GA1, GA2, and GA3, and the outlook for GA3. I mean, last time you mentioned 0.6 to 1 MMSCMD sort of like potential. So any revision on that?
So as of now, for nine months average, I will give you GA1, we have sold around 1.92 MMSCMD. GA2 is around 1.85 MMSCMD. 2.245 is GA3. That makes total sale of around 4 million for this nine months average. Okay. If you look at the growth in GA3, last year average was around 0.163, and we are today at 0.245, which is a growth of almost 49%-50% over the last year average. So that is the growth in GA3. If you consider GA1 and GA2, GA2 is double-digit and GA1 is in the normal range of 4%-5%.
Okay, sure and small question, in terms of kg basis, what was the CNG volumes in Q3?
CNG in terms of KG. Average for the nine months. For the Q3, it is 2.14 Kgs. 2.14 million Kgs.
2.14 per day, right?
Yes, yes. Per day. Per day. KGs per day. Okay. And in terms of SCM, it is 2.92. 2.92.
Fair enough. Thank you so much and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Saurabh Handa from Citig roup. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity. So on your question on your comments on the number of CVs in Mumbai, say around 4 lakhs, and currently the penetration is 10%. Hypothetically, if a similar sort of directive comes as we saw in Delhi, could this number go up to like 25%-50% thereabouts? I mean, just to get a sense of what is the realistic penetration one can assume if you have similar directives as we've seen in Delhi in the past.
Yeah, you are right. I mean, the increase will happen in commercial first because as happened in NCR, the commercial vehicles are first generally the first vehicles which gets impacted because of court or the policy intervention. So in case that happens, our penetration will go up because we have certain depots in BEST also, which we have opened on an experimental basis for commercial vehicles. So we can open further outlets also in our BEST captive outlets for booking for the commercial vehicles. Further, we are increasing infrastructure, particularly in GA2 and GA3, keeping in mind the commercial vehicle increase. And GA1 also, we expect that we will do some management to create more infrastructure for commercial vehicles. Yes, the penetration can increase in coming few years. Saurabh, if you look at current three-quarters penetration, we have added more than 1% of the existing population.
It's because roughly 4,600 odd commercial vehicles are added in these three quarters put together, which is more than 1% of the total population in our GA, and with the high court order, if that gets a little push also, I think we expect that the numbers could be high, but to give a penetration of exact percentage is very difficult as of today.
Sir, what is the usage per vehicle for, say, a typical commercial vehicle?
It varies for different commercial vehicles. If I talk about the heavy commercial vehicles, so usage is about 30 kg per day. This is on an average basis. LCV is about 25, and small commercial vehicles consume about 7.5 kg on a daily basis.
Okay. That's very useful. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vikas Jain from CLSA. Please go ahead. Vikas Jain, please go ahead with the question.
Hi. Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to understand currently of about 50 MMSCMD of gas that ONGC is producing. I think about six has been taken away as new well gas. Of the remaining which is there, roughly how much is being allocated to priority sector and city gas? And that's the first part of the question. Second thing is when you see a change in allocation again on 1st of April, maybe another 5-6% will again go away, say about 2-3 MMSCMD. Is there a chance that LPG or some other sector you see would bear the impact more than city gas? That's something which I wanted to know. Thank you.
I think the numbers will be better available with GAIL. But broadly, what we know is around 19 MMSCMD was coming to CGD, which got reduced to 16 MMSCMD in the first cut, and it went down by another 2 MMSCMD in the second cut. Now, 2-3 MMSCMD restored out of it. So maybe around, if I'm not wrong, maybe around 15-16 MMSCMD is coming to CGD sector. But overall numbers from ONGC, we don't have proper clarity. Maybe 50 is not available as far as we understand. It is lower than that.
Sir, any chance of any other sector getting reduced allocation as compared to city gas?
I mean, to ask this from ministry, but yes, I mean, if you see some deallocation has happened and now the reinstatement has happened. There are two things. The isolated fields, if they get connected to the main grid, then some gas can come to CGD. Or in case ONGC increases the production of APM, then the gas can be made available to CGD. The other gas which is going is to fertilizer and partly to the power which is on the isolated field or the gas in the northeast which cannot come into the main grid. So I mean, I don't think there is much which can come up besides the fact that some isolated fields get connected to the main grid or ONGC increases the production.
I don't think fertilizer, which is already giving a lot of subsidies on the government side, will be taken out from the allocation.
And any chance of maybe some kind of a swap that although those isolated fields and those customers get ONGC gas, but they are charged a higher price and effective swap with you? Or effectively, if we do that, then those become unviable. Is that risk?
I think government is already seized of this matter. GAIL and Ministry of Petroleum is already seized of it. There are actual limitations of doing the swap also because the physical customer should be able to take at that price, at the increased price. There should be customers at that particular isolated area to consume gas physically, then only swap can happen. So the matter is between government and the physical limitation, as well as maybe putting more compulsions to link isolated fields to the main grid, then this mechanism will be able to work.
Thank you, Ashu. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Niharika Jain from Aequitas Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. So my first question is, I think in the call you have mentioned that we would have some impact on Forex. Now, so the Adani Gas and all the contracts, is there no hedge for us, or are all the contracts, even including Adani Gas, unhedged for us as far as Forex is concerned?
See, our dollar exposure, because all the gas we purchase locally is dollar-denominated, are not hedged. Okay? It's not hedged. And if one wants to hedge for an INR transaction, see, only the prices are dollar-denominated. Actual transaction happens in INR. So this RBI, to my understanding, which I had checked a few years back, allows only a forward contract. So there is a trade-off between whether you want to pay upfront forward cost and increase the cost of the consumer, or you remain open and see. In the past, remaining open has benefited us, whereas some entities who took forward, they had a higher cost. But yes, today the time is such that we may still evaluate what needs to be done going forward, considering probably expected movement in the Forex rates, INR and the dollar.
My understanding, Karan, it sounds like that rupee has depreciated by 3% in, say, quarter four. So my cost directly gets impacted by 3%, right?
Roughly, my estimate is, you are right in that sense. It adds around 22-25 paise per Rupee increase on an overall company basis. A rough ballpark calculation. But you are right. Whatever the foreign exchange devaluation happens, that will be reflected in the price because APM price and others are all dollar-denominated. Partly, we are indirectly hedged because we link our Industrial and Commercial prices to the alternative fuels, which are also derived from dollars and then priced in India. Okay. I suppose petrol, diesel prices are also linked to Brent in a way. They also should be linked to Forex. So in a way, our input as well as output both gets.
Natural hedges.
Natural hedges there to a very large extent.
Okay. And so I assume that a lot of fertilizer plants take shutdown in quarter four. So do we get more APM allocation if that happens? Fertilizer sector is taking a lot of shutdowns.
See, that happens. I mean, GAIL does this mechanism of what is the plan for the future or when the plant is going for shutdown or not. So that adjustment they do and do some minor adjustment in the allocation on daily nominated gas quantity. So those are things which we are not privy to that information. Maybe GAIL will be the better place to answer that.
Okay. Understood and the last question, I think I missed the part. We said that we are invested in IBC, but when can we see the revenue that is generated from that entity?
What phase we expect in another 14 months' time the plant will start operating? A 500 MW plant? 14 months from now.
Okay. 14 months from now.
Second phase, another three, four months from that period. That means in one and a half year time, we should be able to see 1 GW f actory coming online.
Do we have contracts in place or will we be getting the contracts after once it gets started?
There's sufficient time. So we will get contracts once we get more clarity about some closer to the production. But still, now we are testing the product. The results are very good. So we have not yet finalized the contracts. We will be doing it maybe one year down the line.
And just from a very macro perspective, considering that it is a very evolving technology, don't you feel that it will be a big risk if the prices just crash down because China is known to do that? See, say we can talk about solar modules also. The prices crash down and it has been crashing down every year. So being internationally linked, won't it be a risk or are we thinking something on this front also?
No, no. We don't consider it to be a risk. You are right. China has a maximum production of the battery sales. But again, there is a protection mechanism by the government to such type of pricing mechanism by China in past also. We have seen with solar PV cells to promote indigenous PV manufacturing. The government has supported the industry quite a lot. But having said that, we are very much confident that we will be able to source very competitive raw material, lithium ion, and other products which are required for battery cell manufacturing. We have a very strong partner in South Korean partners, and we'll be able to manage the market in terms of whatever be the market pricing mechanism.
Government, as we understand, is going to protect the Indian market to a great extent in terms of levying duty because we think that moving away from China is a very much prevalent mechanism by different countries, including India. We are very confident we will be able to survive different price mechanisms as and when they appear in the market in the battery manufacturing field. Also, I would like to add one more point here. When you manufacture cells locally and you will get the live user experience, you will be able to manage the life cycle of the cells and the battery properly when an Indian company is talking to the local consumers here. Whereas in case of China, when there are problems with cells at the cell level, the battery pack manufacturer does not have any answer. Okay.
I think technologically and in terms of performance, an Indian company will have a very, very good upside and edge over the imported cells, and that is going to be one of the USP in the project which is done locally here with technology as well as the setup of the plant locally.
Sorry to interrupt. May I request Ms. Jain to please rejoin the queue? We have participants waiting for the turn.
Yes, yes.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Devang Patel from Sameeksha Capital. Please go ahead.
Sir, if you can please quickly share the data points on what is the share of BEST buses and three-wheelers in our volume and what is the nine-month growth in each of these two segments?
Could you repeat?
So if I have to tell you the customer segment, so auto rickshaws, the three-wheelers which you asked, they are the highest consuming segment. They consume about 34% of the total volumes that we sell. BEST and others put together, I will call it the state transport undertakings, which also includes MSRTC, NMMT, and TMT. They are consuming about only 6% of the total volumes that we sell. Just to add to what Mukesh has mentioned is that in three-wheelers, almost 98% is CNG three-wheelers. As far as BEST is concerned, we have around 2,000 buses of CNG and around 1,000 buses on diesel and EVs put together.
Karan, what is the growth in the BEST buses? In Delhi, we've seen the number of CNG buses also come down. With this panel being set up, is there a risk to three-wheelers and BEST buses' volumes?
No, it is the other way around. You are right. BEST buses in the last few years have come down from 4,000 numbers, which were running on roads, to 3,000 in total, but going forward, we think that the electric buses which were expected to be around 2,000 have not come on roads. So if this particular committee will examine the whole thing and give the recommendation to the government for implementation, and in case some uptake is there, then we can see more buses coming on roads, and that can include a major portion of CNG also, but we have to wait and watch about how the Transport Ministry and BEST take a call on that, but yes, the overall number of BEST buses have come down, including CNG buses have also come down.
Just to share the physical numbers, during the quarter, MSRTC alone has added 142 CNG buses. Okay. And BEST, TMT, and NMMT put together has added 37 numbers of buses. And the major part is BEST. So probably BEST, because they don't have enough number of buses to run their routes, have started adding some either retrofitted or buses on CNG as well.
Karan, secondly, on the revenue side, there is 10% penetration in commercial vehicles. These are what? Tonnage vehicles? These are the one and a half, two-ton vehicles?
So commercial vehicles, what we consider are three and a half gross vehicle weight onwards. So these goes up to 18. 18 is the latest addition. Goes up to 18 tons.
Okay, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Madhur Rathi from Counter Cyclical Investments. Please go ahead.
Sure. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, I wanted to understand when we source our gas, so if there is a pricing currently considered for an example like $6 pricing, sir, at what price do we get with all these transmission and intermediaries? How much cost does that add up in the landed cost for us?
See, most of our gas purchase falls in Zone 1 and Zone 2. Okay. Now, if you look at the tariff, for Zone 1, it is INR 40 per MMBTU. For Zone 2, it is INR 80 per MMBTU. If minor gas is coming from Zone 3, that is INR 108 per MMBTU, and there is a small amount of marketing margin which is being charged on APM gas, GAIL being the aggregator and marketing agency for domestically produced gas.
Okay. Karan sir, the gas which we import, for that, what would be the additional transportation as well as?
As far as NGL is concerned, I'm buying from H point to Y point. So whatever the pipeline transportation I use, depending on the zone in which from where I am buying, the rates will be applied. As I said, mostly our gas purchase is within Zone 1 and Zone 2 maximum.
Thank you. Got it. Sir, my second question was, sir, with this APM gas reduction every year, so I guess that would increase our cost for SCM that we sell to our customers. So what is a sustainable margin? So what is the landed cost that you can get o ver the next one year?
Around 7% reduction of APM is expected as per the results and the recommendation by DGH and Kirit Parikh Committee. So I mean, it depends what is the LNG prices or the substitute gas of NWG prices or the Indian gas basket. HPHT option is also there with us. So we will, and HH option is also there. So we will do a mix of the alternate sources and then determine what will be the selling price of CNG. And also, we'll have a look at petrol and diesel.
Margins, as we mentioned, EBITDA per SCM will be in the range of, say, INR 9 crore- INR 11 crore or INR 10 crore- INR 12 crore, depending on situation, because we want to keep two things in place. One, that the price disruption doesn't happen or too much price variation doesn't happen in CNG, or CNG anyway, 100% allocation of APM is coming. We would like to keep prices steady and keep the growth numbers also in line of sight. Having said these things, we will take a call on when to, what is the right time for increase or decrease of CNG prices, as well as maintaining our portfolio. Because right now, we are not exposed to spot prices variation. That way, we are much more protected.
The signals and the policy initiatives are coming that whatever APM is getting deallocated will be sold at NWG prices to CGD entities. We have clarity on what will be the deallocation and what will be the price impact, how much we can absorb or how much we can pass on, keeping the margins and the growth numbers in place.
Okay. Sir, just a final question from my side. Sir, with this EV economics getting better, so the life of over the life of EVs is getting more attractive than CNG. And yet, I think with increasing gas cost currently, sir, they get even more attractive. So how do we tackle this issue? And can this lead to consumers shifting from petrol, diesel to directly moving towards EVs than just moving from petrol, diesel to CNG?
No, I think it is not as simple as what you have mentioned. The total cost of ownership depends on several factors. One is the main cost of differential between EV and CNG and petrol, diesel vehicle, the first-time purchase cost. The EV is costliest, followed by there's marginal difference between CNG and petrol or CNG and diesel, and second is what is the electricity tariff you have to pay for charging of the EV, and the petrol prices or diesel prices vis-à-vis CNG prices, so when we have seen the total cost of ownership in certain segments, the total cost of ownership, like in the case of buses, we found CNG is cheaper than EVs, but for small vehicles, yes, EV can be cheaper than CNG.
And pollution also, we see like CNG is total cost, life cycle cost of CNG pollution vis-à-vis the mix of what is being produced in India, the coal-based electricity. The impact on CO2 is also not much different from CNG vis-à-vis EV with the current mix of electricity generation. So we find that going forward, depending on the electricity tariff, we will be either in some segments cheaper than EVs or some segments slightly costlier than EVs. But having said that, there is sufficient room in many segments where the per capita consumption of CNG is very high. As we were talking about commercial segment, 10% penetration is there. So that means 90% vehicles are still to be captured by CNG, which is currently running mostly on diesel. So that segment more than compensate for whatever small segment is lost to EVs.
Like if three-wheeler goes to EV, we can more than compensate it to the commercial vehicles which can come on CNG as compared to diesel, so as far as CGD entities and in particular MGL is concerned, we don't find that EVs is going to be a very big threat for the whole company.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Hardik Solanki from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Sir, just want to know, if you look at the effective tax rate for the quarter, it has reduced below 20%. Sir, is there any specific reason behind that?
Your observation is correct. We have had an assessment of the past year tax returns, and we have got some refunds which we have accounted, and that is the reason effective tax rate has come down marginally.
Okay. And sir, can you just break down the volume between Industrial and Commercial for this quarter versus the last quarter? And how was the margin between these two segments?
So industry for this quarter is around 500,000. The rest is commercial. Okay. And as earlier we said, the margin in case of commercial A and other commercial categories is higher than industry. Okay. But all these depends on the alternate fuel prices. If you look at current industrial margins compared to the last quarter, because of the LSHS and LDO prices going down, has gone down slightly. Whereas in case of commercial, where most of the customers are linked to commercial LPG 19 kg, where prices have slightly gone up, the margin is better. But this position keeps on changing. So it's not a static or one-time position which will remain. So depending on the alternate fuels, price realization will be changing in both these categories.
Yeah. Yes. Sir, just to follow up on this, if you look at the current, the falling crude prices and with the fuel oil getting at much discounted prices, so how are we seeing the impact in this quarter? Have we seen any impact in this quarter? And how do we see in upcoming quarters?
If you see impact on the industry, yes, there was an impact in the current quarter in the realization of, as I already said, that because there was a reduction in the LDO and FO prices compared to the last quarter. Okay. So I think ideally, all these are linked to Brent in a way. So if the Brent goes down or up, both will change. If you want to give a view, maybe Brent looks softer now for some time going ahead. So there could be reduction in those realizations. Also, my industrial volume or industrial realization has gone down because the new customers which we are adding, we offer them committed discount of 10% for three years. Okay. And my addition in the volume has happened large. So on a weighted average basis, realization has gone down.
It is not only because of the fuel, but average realization is down because of the large addition of the new customers and the increase in volume.
Just to add to what Rajesh mentioned is that LNG market is also expected to be slightly surplus in the next two, three years. So since LNG is being supplied to Industrial and Commercial, so we think that we will be in a better position to maintain the margins or improve the margins because, I mean, most of the analysts and research, if we read, fuel is expected to be slightly more costlier as compared to LNG prices, which is expected to be slightly more surplus. So in that, maybe one, two years, or three years' time, we will see that we will be able to maintain these margins or improve these margins.
Okay. Okay, sir. That's helpful. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraints, that was the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you so much, all the investors and earnings calls and analysts who have joined on this call. We look forward to your continued support and confidence in the company. Thank you so much for joining us.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of Antique Stock Broking Ltd, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and we will now disconnect the line.