Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Mahanagar Gas Limited Q1 FY 2025 earnings conference call, hosted by PhillipCapital India Private Limited. As a reminder, all the participants line will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touch tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Nitin Tiwari from PhillipCapital India Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Via. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. On behalf of PhillipCapital India Limited, I welcome everyone to first quarter FY 2025 earnings call of Mahanagar Gas Limited. We have the pleasure of having with us today the senior management team from MGL, represented by Mr. Ashu Shinghal, Managing Director, Mr. Sanjay Shende, Deputy Managing Director, Mr. Rajesh Patel, Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. Rajesh Wagle, Senior Vice President, Marketing. Before we begin, I would like to mention that some of the statements made in today's discussion may be forward-looking in the nature, and we believe that expectations contained in the statement are reasonable. However, these statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that may lead to different results. We urge you to consider that quarterly numbers are not a reflection of long-term trends or indications of full year results.
With that, I will now hand over the call to management. Over to you, sir.
A very good afternoon to all of you. Thank you, Nitin, for organizing this. So good afternoon to all the investors on this earnings call of Mahanagar Gas Limited for the first quarter of the financial year 2024-2025. I would like to thank you all for attending our earnings call. MGL continues to create CGD infrastructure across its business segments in the licensed areas. During the quarter, 35,544 domestic households were connected, and thus we have established connectivity for nearly 2.53 million households. We have laid 85.51 km of steel and PE pipelines, taking the total length to over 7,054 km. We have added 2 CNG stations during this quarter, and with this we have 348 stations as on thirtieth June 2024.
We also have added 104 industrial and commercial customers during this quarter, and therefore, as on 30th June, we have 4,845 industrial and commercial customers. In respect of our Raigad GA, we have connected 80,854 domestic households and 47 CNG stations, which are currently under operation. During the quarter, we have laid 8 km of pipeline in Raigad. Thereby taking the total length of pipeline to 424 km in Raigad. With respect to Unison Enviro Private Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of MGL, the company has added one CNG station during this quarter and has a total of 57 CNG stations as on 30th June.
During the quarter, 341 domestic households were connected, and cumulative household connections are 27,339, and UEPL has 575 industrial and commercial customers as on 30th June. Overall, average gas sales for Q1 of the current year compared to the corresponding Q1 of the previous years has increased to 3.858 MMSCMD from 3.1412, which is an increase of 13.1%. Compared to Q1 of current year compared to corresponding Q1 in previous year, sales volume in case of CNG has increased from 2.481 to 2.772 MMSCMD, which is an increase of 11.7%. Sales volume for the domestic PNG has increased from 0.496 to 0.547 MMSCMD, which is an increase of 10.4%.
In case of industrial and commercial sales, commercial sales volume has increased from 0.435 to 0.539 MMSCMD, which is an increase of 23.8%. During the quarter, we achieved overall average sales of 3.585 MMSCMD, as against 3.779 in the previous quarter, which is an increase of 2.1%. Current quarter volume consists of CNG volume of 2.772 and domestic PNG volume of 0.547, while 0.539 MMSCMD of gas has been supplied to industrial and commercial segments. Compared to the previous quarters, previous quarter, sales volume in case of CNG has increased from 2.666 to 2.772 MMSCMD, which is an increase of 4.01%.
However, in case of industrial and commercial, sales volume has marginally decreased from 0.55 to 0.539 MMSCMD, a decrease of 2.13%. The sales for domestic PNG has marginally decreased from 0.563 to 0.547 MMSCMD, which is a decrease of 2.8%. As per our past trend, it is observed that generally, PNG volume remains same or little lower, maybe due to school vacations and other seasonal reasons. Current quarter, EBITDA is INR 418 crore compared to previous quarter EBITDA of INR 394 crore. EBITDA margin is 26.33% for the current quarter as compared to previous quarter of EBITDA margin of 25.13%.
Net profit after tax is INR 285 crore for the quarter, as compared to INR 265 crore in the previous quarter, an increase of 7.4%. Coming to UEPL, Unison Enviro Private Limited. During the quarter, they have achieved an overall average sales volume of 0.168, as against 0.146 MMSCMD in the previous quarter, which is an increase of 14.51%. Current quarter volume consists of CNG volume of 0.165, and PNG volume of 0.001 MMSCMD. Therefore, MGL as consolidated entity has achieved total sales volume for the quarter of 4.026 MMSCMD.
There is a recent launch of CNG two wheel, two-wheeler with Bajaj on 5th July, and also there has been announcement by TVS for introducing CNG scooter around first half of 2025. It has opened up new set of customer for CGD companies, and MGL sees this another volume growth opportunity, considering the large number of two-wheelers in the country, and we are gearing up to cater to this segment. With this, I conclude and would now like to open the floor for questions. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Probal Sen, from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. Good evening, sir. Couple of questions. Number one, what was the percentage of priority sector allocation for this quarter? And any sense you can give us in terms of what that number would be for the rest of the year?
Current quarter APM allocation, for the priority sector, that is CNG and domestic put together-
Yeah.
was in the range of around 69%. Okay.
69%, sir?
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah.
Okay.
Uh-
Right.
I think previous quarter was around 73%-74%. As respect to your, you know, going forward, I think we'll have to wait and watch how does it move. Yeah, last few quarters it has been reducing, but let us see that the trend may get stabilized or may reduce slightly.
Right. So, sir, just extrapolating this, obviously, that means that our share of, you know, term LNG and, you know, will, or spot LNG will continue to increase, assuming this, because our volumes are also going up. And, you know, the rate of decrease is fairly sharp the last few quarters. So in terms of margins then, is Q1 run rate basically something that we should be sustaining? Or, you know, is there some scope for improvement, particularly if spot LNG prices remain at the moderate levels that we have been seeing for the last two months?
So, you know, I think as you've seen in the last year also, quarter on quarter, we have been adding HPHT, even when there is a decrease in the APM allocation. And, our endeavor will be that, you know, blended cost for priority sector remains in this range. And I think, if you see my Q1 results, we have been able to maintain or marginally improve. Okay?
Mm-hmm.
Also, we have signed term contracts where we may be able to use it for priority in case the indexes remain lower. And yes, if the spot also remains in the current range or goes down, we are hopeful that we will be able to, you know, maintain the gas cost, subject to, yes, APM allocation going down marginally or remaining same, not drastically going down. Okay? I think other factors like exchange rate also needs to be monitored. Okay.
Mm.
So as of now, I think we are confident that, more or less, gas costs will remain in this range. Okay?
Right.
Coming to, I think, having reduced the price in the, in the month of July, you know, there could be little pressure, okay, on the margin. But, overall, I think it is comfortable position. Whatever guidance we have been giving in the past, INR 10-12 per SCM EBITDA, we are, hopeful that we will be able to achieve that for the year.
Got it. So last question, if I may, if we can get, given the very strong volume growth numbers we have been seeing in the last couple of quarters, you know, guidance obviously has been raised in a way by the management anyways to about 7%+. So should we still hold on to that? And if you can kindly also give for Unison, what kind of growth should we build given the relatively smaller base for at least 2025 and 2026? Any indication, sir.
Our, the CAGR volume guidance remains the same, I mean, more than slightly more than 6%-7%. Quarter-on-quarter, it can vary. We can have some strong quarters-
Yeah
... some weak quarters, but, directionally, we, we don't see any change. Of course, it is still a improvement from our, you know, last, many years average, which has been maybe 5%-6%. From there, there we are moving up definitely.
And so UEPL, sir?
Unison is, I mean, small volume, so we have seen a growth of around 14% as compared to the last quarter. But,
Mm-hmm.
We expect that the volume growth in Unison will continue to happen because we have taken several steps after we have taken over the company, and the results will be visible during this financial year as well as coming few more years. So we think that the volume base is small, but the growth rate will be 10, more than 10% on year-on-year basis for at least few years to come in Unison, or maybe slightly more than that.
So mid-
You will see quarter-on-quarter, 14%.
Right.
I think already almost 56 stations in place, and we endeavor to put more stations. You will see minimum double digit growth, higher double digit growth.
More than that, correct. Yeah.
Right. So mid-teens is what we should be working with, sir, roughly, on an annualized basis?
Sorry?
Yeah, mid-teens.
Yeah, yeah. Yeah.
Understood, sir. I'll come back if I have more questions. Thank you so much for your time.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Yogesh Patil from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question, sir, and congratulations for the great set of numbers. Sir, I wanted to know about, considering the strong CNG volume growth, we wanted to know the CNG vehicle addition details during the quarter. Do you have any updates on the CNG buses addition by the MSRTC?
Yes. During the quarter, roughly about 20,800 odd vehicles were added on to CNG. This is compared to, let's say, 20,100 of the last quarter of last year. And MSRTC added about 90 buses during the quarter.
Sir, can we get a little bit breakup on the passenger vehicle, commercial vehicle, autorickshaws, on these 20,800 CNG vehicle addition details?
So about 14,200 odd would be private cars, taxis, et cetera. Roughly 5,000 would be three-wheelers. The really small commercial vehicles will be the Tata Ace, Maruti Super Carry types will be about 1,200, 1,300. The remaining will be medium, heavy commercial vehicles and buses. In buses, MSRTC's contribution was 90, BEST's contribution was 59.
Okay. Sir, second question is related to about your capital expenditure plan for FY 2025. How many new CNG stations, additions or upgradations are expected in FY 2025? What was the CapEx during the quarter?
During the quarter, we have incurred CapEx in the range of around INR 250 crore. With stations, we are going to add, I mean, we have set up a strict target. Around more than 50 stations we expect to add this financial year in MGL alone, and maybe another 25 stations will be added in Unison Enviro . So in total, maybe around 75 stations will be added in the overall numbers. 350 plus 57 of Unison, and another 75 will be added for this financial year. CNG stations.
Okay. Sir, APM gas allocation sides, you mentioned that it was close to 69% during the quarter for FY25. What is the current APM gas allocation run rate? Any ballpark figures you can share, if possible?
I said 69%. Currently also it is in the same range.
Okay.
Same range.
Okay. Sir, just we, few hours back, we attended the IGL call, and they mentioned that they are getting a 62% APM gas allocation for the priority segment. So the difference in APM gas allocation is due to the CNG volume growth or any other reason? I just wanted to, get some clarity on that.
I think there is a... maybe there is a difference in the manner in which the percentage is worked out. Either it could be total volume versus priority, or it could be, you know, they are allocating first, whole priority to domestic. Balance available, they may be comparing with the CNG, and that percentage, that could be there. What I am telling you is total APM versus total priority gas sold, that is domestic plus CNG put together, that is a 69%. Okay?
Okay, got it.
So I don't know in what manner the percentage is worked out or what is the base with which APM allocation is being compared?
Thanks. Thanks a lot, sir, and best of luck. I'll come back in the queue.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of S. Ramesh, from Nirmal Bang Equities. Please go ahead.
Good evening, and thank you very much. So, if you look at the Unison performance, is it possible to share the top line and whether you are breaking even at EBITDA and then what kind of EBITDA run rate you can expect, you know, per SCM, say, over the year and next year?
Top line, what? Can you repeat the first part? What is the top line question?
Basically, on Unison and Miro, based on the volumes you have achieved so far, what is the kind of top line you have booked this quarter? And how do you see the EBITDA per SCM for the quarter and for the coming quarters in FY 2025? And how do you see that improving, say, in FY 2020.
...In terms of, you know, value, or sorry, volumes, it was roughly 153,000 SCM, okay? Or 0.17 MMSCM, which is already touched upon in the call. In terms of, value, revenue-
Yeah.
- is roughly INR 88 crore for the quarter Q1 of this year, as against INR 82 crore in the last quarter. Okay?
In terms of the earnings, EBITDA or EBITDA per SCM, can you give us some insight?
EBITDA is more or less in similar range as MGL, okay? Since, you know, not sharing you exactly the number, because there are certain costs which are, you know, specific to this Q1 and we taking over, so, not very right way to compare it, okay? But I'll tell you, gross margins are also more or less in the similar range. So their prices are higher and their costs are a little bit higher. So they are also in the range of, or little more than MGL, maybe INR 1 more than MGL in terms of, EBITDA margin.
So just, just trying to get a sense, since you have shown the consolidated result-
Yeah.
Is there the co-contribution from Unison, profit breakeven or a loss in your consolidating result?
No, I think as, we have been informing in the earlier calls also, either UEPL as such is breaking even at EBITDA level, there is a cash profit. And for the whole, for the quarter, there was a PAT of roughly INR 10 crore, okay? However, when you see on consolidated basis, there are some notional entries keeps on coming, so you will not get the correct picture, or at least on the quarter one. When you see our annual report, maybe you will be able to get more information on the, details on a annual level basis for UEPL.
Understood. So now, if you look at your core business, in terms of the YOY trend, when do you see the YOY trend reversing to growth? Will it happen in the second half, or would you see that happen by FY 2026? Last year was admittedly a very high base. Given the current run rate in conversions and potential for any improvement in EBITDA margins, you know, with the INR 1.5 rupee increase in prices, should we expect the earnings trajectory improve on a YOY basis to positive growth by second half or next year?
Are you referring to volume growth this quarter-
Yeah, EBITDA margin.
EBITDA margin?
I'm talking about earnings growth. See, because if you look at your results, they're down, right? YOY is down. So, in terms of the from an investor's perspective, you are doing the right things in terms of adding vehicles and showing growth in volumes. So the question is, based on the current run rate and volume growth and the kind of pricing power and the ability to manage the gas cost, what is your sense in terms of when you will be able to, you know, show growth at EBITDA and PAT level over the next, say, 4 quarters-8 quarters? Will it happen in the second half, or should we expect that to happen in FY 2026? What is the current expectation?
I think there are a lot of factors on which this depends, okay. So first of all, the volume growth is there, which is visible compared to, you know, corresponding quarter last year. If you consider that there is a seasonality in Q1 always, so we expect that there will be better growth in Q2 and Q3. Okay? We have also taken a price increase, as you may be aware, in the month of July of INR 1.5. So our endeavor is to maintain margin in line with the gas costs available to us. And, with, I think, volume growth going up, there will be, you know, a reduction in the OpEx per SCM as well.
So if we are able to achieve, maybe, you know, more than 6%-7% volume growth, we see that absolute EBITDA will also grow. Maybe it may take 3 quarters-4 quarters for absolute EBITDA to start crossing the current, or the past year level. Because as we have been saying that in the past year, our margins were quite high, and the EBITDA achieved is slightly higher than the normal performance in the year. And after that, there has been, you know, decrease in APM allocation, and we have been, you know, trying to manage that gas cost. So considering the APM allocation available at this stage compared to what we got in the last year, last year, almost 90% APM was available, okay?
So presuming that, you know, the APM allocation remains where it is, volume growth accrues the manner in which it is accruing now, we are able to do, you know, better physical infrastructure laying down in UEPL as well as in MGL, which will certainly add volume, then we are hopeful that we will be able to take from here on the EBITDA level and cross maybe the best in the past.
So my next is one more question. In terms of the LCV additions, when do you see that show some improvement, and when do you see that, you know, delivering in terms of increase in the growth rate for CNG sales?
If you see, small commercial vehicles have been getting added quarter on quarter, quite well, more than 1,000, at least every quarter, okay? And currently, we have more than, you know, 12,000 odd small commercial vehicles. Tempos and RTVs are also almost 16,000. Both put together, they are almost, you know, 28,000 odd. So I think... And, and the truck number is also increasing. If you notice, even BEST buses have come back this quarter, 59 and 79 MSRTC, 90 MSRTC buses.
One point we'd like to add about the commercial goods vehicles is that, whatever reports in media we are seeing on that segment, the commercial vehicle additions, you know, across fuels is lagging slightly. I don't know if it's because of the economy or what, but however, we are still attempting to claw out a larger market share for CNG out of, you know, whatever comes new in the market. So we have developed traction, and we are hoping that things will, the numbers will improve from here on.
Any concern on the increase in the growth rate of hybrid vehicles? Is that, technically, is that going to be a kind of a deterrent for incremental growth in CNG vehicles?
So sorry to interrupt you, as there are other participants in the queue waiting, so may I request you to determine the question queue for follow-up questions?
Yes, just one last question, that is important for everyone.
Yeah, okay.
Last question. In short, no, that doesn't move the needle. Hybrid vehicles, the number is too small right now for any, you know,
It is not going to have any impact as of now, because the overall volumes are much heavy, and the volume of potential to get the petrol vehicles or diesel vehicle on CNG side is much, much more. So it's not that EVs or hybrid vehicles are going to make any impact as of now.
Thank you very much. I'll join the queue.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants in the conference, please limit your questions to two per participant. The next question is from the line of Sabri Hazarika from Emkay Global. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon, sir, and congratulations on good numbers. So, just two questions. Firstly, on the LNG, you've given the revenue, but, what is the current unit economics of the LNG station? So you've got one right now. So how much was the sales and, what was the margin profile, and what are your plans for LNG for the next one year as well as for the next three, four years?
I think within NGL, this is one station, because after this station we have entered into joint venture with Baidyanath LNG and more new station will be taking up under that JV.
Okay.
Coming to your question on volume of LNG in NGL, at several stations, we were selling around 3,000 in the last quarter. Currently it is almost more than 4,100 kgs a day. That is the volume. Okay?
Okay, and what is the maximum potential for this?
The tank is capacity, so typically we have to make some volume already in the tank. So maximum we can go up to 12 tons-13 tons per day.
12tons-13 tons per day. Okay, sir. And, the EBITDA margin profile is better than CNG or it is, similar?
Well, today we are seeding the market, so EBITDA margin cannot be better than CNG.
Now it is just for making sure that we get the proper contract and every ecosystem is in place. So we are seeding the market, so it is cannot be compared with established market like CNG.
Okay. Okay, fair enough. And secondly, regarding this Open Access, it is completely done for good right now, or is there anything like... There was this announcement that document which came in PNGRB, that they have put it on hold. So is there anything there, or it is, like, completely off the radar at the moment?
The exclusivity is a, I mean, there are many things in it. One is that infrastructure exclusivity is there, for which we have sought extension from PNGRB, and we are expecting that it can be, it will be processed and given to us, because there are precedents and provisions in the regulation to give ten-year block extension on request. Regarding the marketing exclusivity, there have been several developments like guiding principle. They have been repeated by PNGRB. The notices, 54 notices, which they have issued to different entities have also been repeated. Now, we again, the guiding principles are under sub judice. The batch matter related to its marketing exclusivity and infrastructure exclusivity is also under sub judice being debated in the court. So we don't want to comment on it.
Maybe after the court decision, till the time court decides, there is a stay order on both these things for any coercive actions to be taken against us. So we think our interests are protected till the time, judicial decision comes.
Okay, fair enough. Thank you so much, and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rajesh Aynor from Athena Investment. Please go ahead.
Hello, am I audible?
Yes, yes.
Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, can you please shed some more light on the volume growth which we have achieved in last, in two quarters? Because, you know, the trajectory seems to be moving upwards. What exactly has been the reason, and, you know, are these reasons sort of sustainable? Why I'm asking is because, despite this, we are still guiding for around 5%-6% kind of a growth, you know, for the future years. So something, you know, some more color on that will be helpful.
Look, the volume growth, look at the last two quarters, has primarily been driven by CNG. In fact-
Mm-hmm.
If you look at the domestic household or D-PNG numbers or INC numbers, they actually decreased slightly. So on an overall basis, you know, we are not changing our outlook. And again, it's not 5%-6%, it's more than 6% is what we have been saying, 6%-7% at least. So and again, quarter on quarter, you know, commenting on exactly why some volume went up 2% higher, why something went down 1%, it is very difficult to quantify, you know, retail business. We don't have information at that level of granularity. So it's yes, vehicle additions have been strong. More commercial vehicles have been adding, whose per capita contribution is higher. And all, all that we can say is there are more vehicles on the road, more CNG vehicles on the road.
They've crossed 10 lakhs now, and they must be running either how much ever they used to run or slightly more for this volume contribution.
Okay. Okay, sure. Thanks a lot, sir. That's it from my end.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Kirtan Mehta from BOB Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir, for this opportunity. Just wanted to check on the volume guidance that we are keeping in 6%-7% range, while we are running at 12%-13%, and we have a good visibility on the industrial sort of doing a double-digit growth over two years. So which is the area where we expect the normalization to come through, or which is running at a higher than the sort of the rate, which may not sustain? Any thoughts or any color on this?
Look, I mean, if you look at Q4 versus Q1, the CNG increase is almost 4%, which is a very large number. Now with that, if you annualize that, the number is much higher. We don't think that is sustainable, you know, for a long time, so that may moderate a bit. Industrial and commercial, we repeat that we will most probably be getting double-digit growth in industrial and commercial segments this year also. And domestic, you know, continues its slow and steady contribution, because the base is very high, and whatever 1-2 lakhs we keep adding every year, that will contribute to slow, steady growth. And the CNG number this quarter was, yes, slightly maybe higher than usual.
Maybe we are underestimating ourselves. The point is that CNG volume is the main driver for growth. Around 70% volumes comes from CNG, but it can vary quarter on quarter. So this quarter has been much better as compared to Q4 of last year. Going forward, there can be some reduction, so overall, we expect that more than 7% growth at least we will hit year-on-year.
Right. The second question was on the cost side. So what sort of the gas transportation costs, on an average, how much it is for us? How much of the gas we receive from Zone 1 and Zone 2, is there any split available?
Most of our gas is in the Zone 1, except HPHT what we buy comes from,
Reliance.
Reliance.
That is Zone 3.
Zone 3.
I think Zone 6.
Zone 2, 2, 2. Zone 2. Most of our gases, APM, as I think, are coming at Zone 1. Some gas, which we are taking from, let us say, KG Basin of Reliance, plus maybe the some from that will be coming under Zone 2.
Right. Is it possible to share the delivered cost for APM, HPHT in different buckets?
HPHT is around $9.9 per MMBTU, and different transportation, we are saying.
No, basically, delivered in terms of the INR per HTM number, is it possible to sort of differentiate within the different buckets, how the cost vary?
I think if you add the Zone 1, maximum, at least you know, 80%-90% quantity, you will be able to arrive at, because 6.5 is APM, HPHT is around $10.
Fine, sir. Thank you. Thanks for discussing.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Gagan Dixit from Elara Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, yeah, thanks for taking my question, sir. Sir, my question is regarding, sir, that, in the past, typically, MGL was adding 20 CNG-25 CNG outlets. Now you are targeting almost 50 CNG outlets per annum. So what is the change actually that you see where, I mean, how, what are the easiness you find to add to double this, something you're in the outlet rates, rates per annum, I think, if you give some color over that?
Several steps have been taken in last few years. We have taken steps in trying to promote different schemes for getting the lands also. We have been very aggressively following up with different authorities. And we have rationalized, smoothened the process of issuing LOI and execution also we are trying to promote, simplifying the processes and several other things which we have taken maybe, yeah.
In the last few years, you know, traditionally we used to have just, you know, a couple of models of, you know, CNG channels. One was oil marketing company and one was COCO. There were very few DODOs. Now, a few years back, we, you know, we widened that ambit, and we now have almost four or five different types of, you know, offerings for partners who are willing to, you know, do business with us and open CNG stations. So we, we now have the ability to, in case we really need a CNG station somewhere and land is available, yes, we, we are willing to pay close to market price for it, if, you know, that's what it takes to get a strategically important CNG station, which...
So in the marketplace, what we are observing is if any entrepreneur or person wants to open a fuel retail station, they are preferably coming to MGL compared to other few,
Other alternative operators.
Operators like OMC's or even the private, fuel retailing companies. So that is contributing to the increase in numbers. Also, of course, as the MD said, we are pursuing very aggressively with government and other quasi-government authorities to get more and more land parcels from them. So in the last one or two years, we have got an unprecedentedly large number of, the government plots.
Yeah, but we are also planning ahead to see that we maintain good potential to increase more stations wherever it is possible.
So I can safely assume that this, this potential will continue for few years. So I mean, this 50%-
Yeah, yeah. There are certainly certain problems and certain limitations, that after a while, the land availability in certain pockets will be difficult. But we are keeping some margins, and we are trying to get new opportunities, new models, new way of execution, permissions also to are being expedited and so on and so forth. So that at least some pipeline is clear that how much we can add in next few years at least.
Sir, my second question is, I think if I'm following since FY 2019 actually, that MGL is proactively, I think, have arranged the gas supply procurement. I think you have done, I think. I think you are one of the few of the CGD companies who have contracted the Reliance KG gas also, I think 8.5% rate, that's the initial. So, this, how much is that you have the overall gas supply contract? I mean, over and above also, something that actually you demand that, I mean, whatever the overall supply you have, the mid-term, long-term contract, these are available with you, sir?
We have already signed almost, you know, term contracts. As you already said, Reliance was there, 0.1. Apart from that, we have signed Henry Hub link contracts. Already we had up to quarter in around 0.76, okay? And after that also, we are taking up 1 or 2 contracts. HPHT was already around half a million, okay? And we propose to take little more again in the times to come. So as and when our volumes are stabilizing and we are sure that, you know, we will be able to maintain the volumes, we are going and tying up with the term contracts.
Mm.
All these term contracts in the range of 5-6 years, except 1 or 2, where it could be 3 years.
Okay. So, so they are over and above the, whatever your demand is, you have the some cushion of the, if your demand increase, so you have the availability of the-
If you look at the signed contract, over and above it is demand, but there is a, you know, threshold of minimum take, take or pay. Some contracts 60, some at 80, some at 90. So whenever I ramp down, it can meet, and whenever I want to go a little more, and if there is a demand. Now, we are not over-contracted. Some shortfall and balancing is done through exchange also. So, I mean, we are at almost at par with what the gas is being consumed and the contracts which have been made. Because, see, as was being explained, around 69% is APM. Balance, shortfall in this is being met through HPHT. And for industrial and commercial, we are importing LNG, I mean taking LNG from different aggregators and suppliers. So there is a mixed portfolio.
Plus, we have got exchange where we do the balancing part whenever demand goes up or down, and contract flexibility is also there to balance it.
Just to add, you know, short-term marginal growth we can do on spot also.
Yeah, spot is also-
Once the spot level, you know, increases and stabilizes, then we take a try and shot of that and move it to term. The spot again comes down.
Mm-hmm. Mm. Yeah, that, that's all my question. Thanks, sir. All the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Lokesh Manik from Vallum Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thank you for taking my question, sir. If you can just share details on this 4% QOQ growth in CNG, geography-wise, which geography was the main driver for this growth? It would be great.
See, geography, it is, I mean, floating population, GA 1 and 2, vehicles are moving here and there.
I think percentage-wise, GA three will be highest, that's even double digit, but the base is small there. GA one, GA two, we are not actually, you know, we cannot really, you know, put it in a very, very, knife edge kind of, you know, this is GA one, this is GA two, because vehicles move across the border, fill from anywhere. People stay in Mumbai, travel to Thane, and vice versa.
Right.
It's just one expanse of the metropolitan region, you know, it's, it's—
So you-
Having said that, from maybe the core city of Mumbai-
Or-
Growth is not that high. BEST is stagnant, for example. In fact, the last maybe one year, we might have lost a few percentage points on state transport undertaking volume, which now is reversing because of MSRTC and marginally, BEST.
Simply, if you take in on station situated in each geography, then you have some number, but that is of not much relevance. So if you see GA 1 and GA 2, wherever the stations are in each one it, maybe it is almost equal GA 1, GA 2, or little more GA 1 because of the traditional volumes and,
Correct.
And all that.
So incrementally, GA 2 and Unison would have, you know, driven the volume. Is that a correct assessment?
GA 3 also. GA 2-
GA three.
GA 3 and Unison. These are the-
Mm
New volume drivers in a way?
Yeah.
I'm saying the higher growth percentage.
Understood. Understood. That is true also.
GA one as well, but the percentage-
GA 1 is saturated and a much matured market.
That's it. Yeah. Even the stations are being added up in GA 2 and GA 3, primarily. GA 1, the addition of stations is slightly limited.
Okay. And this commercial vehicles, you know, coming into this in the CNG format, these are more in Mumbai region or they are outside Mumbai, or they're equally distributed?
No, they are distributed across our geographies.
Yes.
These typically, you know, run on highways, and they are also involved in last mile delivery for e-commerce and things like that.
Right. Right. Understood. Understood. Thank you so much. That's it from me.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Sagar Kapadia, from Prabhudas Lilladher. Please go ahead.
Hello? Hello.
Yes, sir. Continue.
Yeah. So in the last quarter conference call, you had mentioned that, in quarter 3, FY 2024, 67, and quarter 4, FY 2024, 97. These were the medium and heavy commercial vehicles addition you were referring to, right?
So 67 numbers was actually trucks.
Yeah, trucks. These were the medium and heavy trucks you were referring to, correct?
97 was in Q4 trucks, yeah.
Yes, yes, trucks.
Yeah.
Yeah, these were the medium and heavy commercial vehicles. So this quarter, how much will be the number, quarter one, FY25?
For in this quarter is 163 trucks.
163. So this is an improvement, no, sir?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Good improvement. So can we continue for this year, at least around 150 trucks can be added every quarter?
We are hoping so, but one thing we have to realize is a slight change taking place in this market. You know, with the availability of factory-fitted, medium and heavy, vehicles, quite a few people, transporters, are shifting from the small commercial vehicle to the medium commercial vehicles.
Okay.
So the small commercial vehicles actually have dropped from over 1,400 to about 1,250. And the delta has got picked up in the medium and heavy ranges. That will improve our overall sales volumes, because medium and heavy take more per capita than CNG compared to light. But then the overall number is remaining roughly the same, 20,000-21,000, kind of, range.
Okay, okay. I see. I understand, understand. So they are shifting for the bigger `trucks only, so that will be beneficial to them also, and for volume front, it will be beneficial to us, although in numbers it will, it will not be showing.
Yes, yes, right.
Sir, another thing I wanted to ask you: you always refer to the CNG vehicle additions, 20,000. So these are all conversions, this 20,000 you are referring to, or the new vehicles added?
These are predominantly factory-fitted OE vehicles.
Okay, factory-fitted OE vehicles.
Retrofitment number is hardly about 900 or so out of this 21,000.
Okay, but that, you include in that also, no?
Yes.
That in that 20,000 numbers, you retrofit also, you include it every time.
Yes, roughly 20,000 factory fitted and 1,000 retrofit, let's say 21,000 or 20,800 or whatever.
Okay, I got it. And sir, another one important thing, in MSRTC buses, you always say, you know, around, you know, last quarter you had said 300 cumulative buses, even this quarter they have added. So in our geographical area, what is the total scope of this MSRTC buses, you know, which we can, you know, finally over a period of time, they can keep converting?
We are expecting another about two hundred odd to come on, maybe in the next two quarters or so. After that, again, we are pursuing continuously with MSRTC to bring up more and more depots on CNG and convert more buses. But let's see how it goes, so.
Okay, so any, you know, range which you have, you know, worked out, like what is the total MSRTC buses, you know, plying in our GA area, that which has the scope of conversion?
Look, MSRTC has got a total fleet of about 17,000 buses.
Okay.
Of which probably about 6,000-odd would be, you know, touching our GAs.
Okay, so that's a big number.
Yes, yes, that's, that's a big number, and these buses run a lot of kilometers a day, so per capita consumption is almost 80, 90, 90-plus kg per day.
Okay.
They run a few lakh kilometers. I think they replace the buses in 4 or 5 years, and that's how hard they drive them. Of course, the road conditions also don't help.
These can compensate us for our dropping volume from the BEST, right?
Yes, but if you have noticed, BST is also slightly slowly creeping back. We've added 59 buses in this quarter, net additions.
Okay.
... We are pursuing with them also to, you know, adopt more CNG.
I know, because in media now, often we hear that they are going to shift to electric, they are going to shift to electric. So then, you know, that makes us, you know, the sentiment towards the stock a bit negative for the BEST.
No, despite whatever has been happening with BEST, we are still-
Yeah
growing at a good rate overall. And, 90+% of that is basically noise. If you look at the on-ground numbers, BEST currently only has 500-600 odd electric vehicles, and maybe in the last one quarter or so, they have managed to add some 70-80 more. But for a very long time, maybe 2-3 years, that number was stagnant in about 500 odd range.
Okay. From last 2 years-3 years only, this 500 to 600 is the stagnant number of the EVs?
Yes, sir.
Okay. So we still have a scope in BEST also, you know, slowly keep on increasing the CNG vehicles.
Yes, definitely.
Okay, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Somaiah Valiyappan from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity, sir. So, you recently did mention 0.16 MMSCMD of volumes. So where do we see in the next couple of years in terms of Unison volume space?
Please, please repeat your question.
We could not get your, I mean-
Voice is not clear.
Sorry, sir. I was looking for Unison, in terms of next couple of years for this year, FY 25 and 26, what is your expectation in terms of, volume growth?
Volume, when we started was 0.13 MMSCMD. Currently, we are around 0.15 MMSCMD.
16, 17.
0.17 MMSCMD. So we think it will grow pretty fast in at least quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, because number of stations are getting increased in these areas. And we think our guidance was that 6-7 years, we'll, we'll cross 1 MMSCMD, maybe 1.3 MMSCMD.
So this 6%-7% kind of volume growth that we are expecting, so, I mean, I just want to understand how much Unison would be contributing and how much Raigad would be contributing to this.
This is excluding standalone MGL. 6%-7%, which we have been guiding, is MGL alone, excluding UBL. UBL is a separate number which will get added.
Overall volume-wise, like in, in case, of MGL, we are having around 3.9 MMSCMD. The volumes of Unison is currently 0.17 MMSCMD, and in going forward, it will be another six, seven years, it can be crossing 1 MMSCMD, so maybe 1.3 MMSCMD.
Got it, sir. Sir, also, you mentioned in terms of profitability for Unison, you said it's more or less in line with, you know, company level numbers. So, is it because your realizations are higher in the GA when compared to in Mumbai? That's the reason, because I guess in terms of operating leverage, it will be lower when compared to your core GAs.
Currently, prices in all the GAs of Unison are higher than MGL. Okay. And maybe that is because some cost is also there, maybe in terms of gas transportation as well as LCV transportation, because their stations are mostly daughter booster. And then when we lay further lines, these operating costs will come down. Okay? So their price to the customer is also higher, and their realized gas costs and other operating costs are also higher. But at EBITDA level, more or less, they are making equal margin as MGL.
Got you. And also, you did mention about the two-wheeler, you know, potential. Any rough thoughts currently, how you are thinking at it, the opportunity set, and in terms of any incremental volumes currently you're penciling in, in your, you know, outlook?
Two-wheeler is just launched, so it will take some time for pickup in terms of availability of these two-wheelers on road, adoptability, the experience, the customer experience. And when we will be adding up our... We are anyway taking up internally that how we will address this issue of an additional business segment. So as of now, we think wherever the space is available, we can allocate one dedicated dispenser for filling up these two-wheelers. But going forward, as and when they increase, we will take necessary steps to make sure that they are addressed, addressed properly. The volume pickup will take some time, because the per capita or per fill is very low, maybe around 2 kg is the cylinder size, so we will be filling around 1.5 kg per fill.
So the numbers to add up point to overall kitty of our vehicles will take some time to make some significant impact.
Just to supplement, on this Bajaj motorcycle, I think over 130 motorcycles have been delivered in our geographical areas. And when we are speaking to Bajaj, their projections are maybe 700 odd would add every month or so. So when you look at the overall CNG vehicle number of, you know, 10 lakh plus and all that, we should be able to accommodate this. But as the MD said, for material growth, yes, it will take a long time, but this is a slow, steady, and we're expecting this market to, you know, contribute. This was never a market segment which was there in our traditional mix.
It's a very welcome thing which we appreciate the effort taken by Bajaj and others, so is to design and then launch it successfully, these type of applications for CNG, which is a very welcome thing for the industry.
Since then, there have been media reports of one or two other major-
EVA
two-wheeler manufacturers who are talking of now introducing something similar.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Hardik from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, my question is already answered. Thanks.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Anuj Sharma from M3 Investment. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you for this opportunity. My question is, you know, you touched upon it a while ago. See, the economics of the government transport with respect to electricity and CNG, earlier the data would have been scarce, but how do you perceive the economics of electric BEST bus or MSRTC bus versus a CNG bus? You know, how is it evolving also? That will be a little helpful.
There are certain subsidies available in EVs. Secondly, we have done some back-of-the-envelope calculations on the total cost of ownership of a CNG vehicle and electric vehicle, bus, particularly. Because let us say CNG bus is costing around INR 45 lakh-50 lakh per bus. The electric bus costs somewhere around-
INR 1.5, INR 1.6 crores. We have done studies, which show that the total cost of ownership or TCO for a CNG bus is actually lower. But, you know, there are all kinds of, you know, optics around the electric bus, zero tailpipe emissions and nothing, which, you know, somehow it's,
Making more news.
Making more news and noise, but-
The total cost of ownership of a CNG is around, much less, maybe 1.5 at times.
Especially given the very, very poor financial situation of BEST, here they are totally dependent on the municipal corporation and the state government to fund them for these buses. So we are expecting that there will be some limitations there also on, you know, how they can grow CV. So they will have to look at CNG and that is our belief.
That's right.
Sure, sure. That's helpful. You touched upon few numbers, but if you could just quantify, you said the cost of a bus, electric bus with subsidy would be approximately INR 1.5 versus a CNG bus of INR 40-45.
To INR 1.8 crore per bus, electric vehicle.
Without, without subsidy or with subsidy?
With subsidy.
With subsidy, okay. When you elongate this on a TCO, what is the difference in a 10- and 15-year period?
Typically, it's typically 1.4-1.5 times higher, 1.5 times higher than the CNG total cost of ownership basis. For buses, we are saying, right?
Yeah, sure. Buses, buses. Yeah, yeah. All right, that's helpful. Thank you so much. And this economics as the subsidy weans off or maybe comes off, this economics will become more and more lucrative towards CNG. Is that a fair assumption? And you already highlighted that.
So many assumptions. See, the numbers which we gave you were also dependent on the fuel price, CNG prices, electricity, I mean, the time, not time, the cost required for, sourcing the electricity and, charging it. So there are certain assumptions in what we have done. So it depends, going forward, if electricity tariff comes down or if CNG prices comes down or go up, then the economics gets slightly different.
Yeah, sure. I appreciate that.
You know, the subsidy element going forward, I think, what we read from media is the government is targeting Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities now. Whatever has come for metros, there is a-
But the bigger issue with electric vehicles is that the supply is not available, especially in the buses. The booking, like, earlier, the question was being asked, around 2,000 buses were ordered by BEST, and only maybe 400, 500 are available as on date, despite two years have lapsed. So there is a question mark on the availability of buses as well. Plus, again, Chinese buses are getting imported or some of the batteries components are getting imported from China. There also there are certain restrictions on imports. So going forward, we see that there are several factors which can impact overall profitability or economics as, as such. Can't say with confidence, but if you look at the current Union Budget, the same subsidy allocation has been reduced compared to the past, okay?
Probably that, if that is some indication that maybe EV will be slowly left to the market forces. We don't know, but that is what the number shows in the Union Budget.
Yeah.
This is despite the fact that GST on electric vehicles is 5%, as compared to CNG vehicles, which is attracting 28% GST.
Sure, sure. That, that's very helpful. Thank you so much for that.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you so much to our investors who post and get confidence on Mahanagar Gas, and we value that. Thank you so much for joining in today.
Thank you.
Thank you. Thanks.
On behalf of PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited, that concludes the conference call. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.