Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Natco Pharma Q4 and FY 2024 earnings conference call, hosted by Batlivala & Karani Securities India Private Limited. As a reminder, all participants' lines will be in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Hrishikesh Patole from Batlivala & Karani Securities India Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Hello. Good morning, everyone. On behalf of BNK Securities, I welcome you all to the Q4 FY 2024 earnings conference call of Natco Pharma. Hope everyone is in good health and doing well. On behalf of Natco today, we have with us Mr. Rajeev Nannapaneni, Director and CEO, Mr. Rajesh Chebiyam, Executive VP, Crop Health Sciences. I now hand over the call to Rajesh for the management's opening remarks, post which we'll open the session for Q&A. Over to you, Rajesh.
Thank you, Hrishikesh. Good morning, and welcome everyone to Natco's conference call, discussing our earnings results for the fourth quarter of FY 2024 and the full year results, which ended March 31, 2024. Our discussion during this call will include certain forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections, or estimates about future events. While these forward-looking statements exemplify our judgment and future expectations, please note that these estimates involve several risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from what is expressed or implied. Natco Pharma takes no obligation to publicly revise any forward-looking statements to reflect any future events or circumstances. I'd like to state that except for the participant question, the property of Natco cannot be recorded or rebroadcast without Natco's express written permission. Okay, now let's start with the earnings details. We hope you received our financials and press release.
Also, the investor presentation was updated earlier today. These are also available on our website. So the company has recorded its highest ever consolidated revenue and profits during this financial year. This is a result of decades of our diligence and focused strategy on niche, high-potential molecules. So for the full year, FY 2024, Natco has recorded consolidated total revenue of INR 4,126.9 crores, as against INR 2,811.7 crores for the last year. This is reflecting roughly about 47% growth. The net profit for the period on a consolidated basis was INR 1,388.3 crores, as against INR 715.3 crores prior year, showing a growth of almost 94%.
Our business on the domestic front had a one-time charge of roughly INR 90 crore, the details of which was communicated during our press release. We will discuss further during the call. Our revenue split as well has been disclosed during our press release. So with that, I will pause here. We'll take questions. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish, if you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handset while asking the question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Viraj Mahadevia from MoneyGrow. Please go ahead.
Hi, congratulations, Rajeev, Rajesh and the entire team at, at Natco, for the excellent results and for proving the naysayers wrong. Given that you have delivered INR 380 crore PAT in Q4, after the exceptional cost of INR 90 crore, can we assume, given Revlimid ramp-up underway, a INR 400 crore PAT per quarter is sustainable for the next 1-2 years?
It depends on, I don't want to say.
I mean, within a 5% tolerance on either side, but is it in that ballpark?
I cannot give you, like, quarterly updates like that, but what I can say is like this, okay? This year we did about, you know, INR 1,388 crore profit. I think going forward, next year, we at least see it all goes well and there are not too many surprises. I think we should do greater than 20% growth for the year.
Perfect. That's exactly what I was looking for. If that is the case, you know, the stock trades on FY 2025 x cash at 10 times P, per my calculations. Very cheap by any standards, given your INR 1,000 crore cash on books and incremental-
it's not INR 1,000 crore. Actually, we have some tax payments and some pay and some vendor payments to make. But actual cash position is actually INR 2,000 crore. Yeah, next.
Perfect. So even two-
May twenty-sixth, we have INR 2,004 crores of cash and investible, you know, liquid assets and INR 116 crores of debt. So that's the actual thing.
So approximately INR 2,000 crores of cash and an incremental INR 3,000 crores of free cash flow, per my calculations, in the next 2 years. So even with an acquisition plan, which you have suggested in the past, are the promoters and board not considering a buyback?
I think, I'm thinking about it. I've not made up my mind. I think if we get a large enough acquisition, then I don't want to do a buyback. But if we are unable to close a large acquisition, then maybe we can consider a buyback. I've not made up my mind as of today. I think we will decide as the year unfolds, yeah. But I think that's the thinking.
Understood. Thank you. Do give it some thought. You know, promoter group obviously is at 49 odd%, so even a small buyback would add a lot of confidence in the view around valuation.
We'll do what is right for the company. Yeah, certainly. Yeah.
Okay, thank you. All the best.
Next question, please. Thanks, Suraj.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Siddhant Singh from Green Portfolio. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hello, sir. Hope I am audible.
Yes, you are. Go ahead, go ahead with your question.
Sir, I wanted to know about your investment in Cellogen. Like, we are very optimistic about the development and all, but, how you are planning to leverage this collaboration, and what is the timeframe you are expecting that it will get completed, and how it will impact our financials?
See, CAR T therapy is something that we don't have a skill set in-house in Natco. As you know, we are strong in oncology, but we don't do biologics, and neither are we doing the newer therapies like CAR T. And I feel, you know, biologics anyway, we are not participated in that. So I feel the newer technologies like CAR T, I don't want to miss. I think, if you don't have the skill set in-house, then you've got to invest in a company which has the skill set, so I think that's why we've done it. We feel that a lot of the oncology therapy is gonna go to CAR T. So it's a modest start. I think we have the option to invest more, depending on how things go. But it's a modest start.
So let's see how things go. It's very early stage. I can't get into timelines and all, but I, I think we're excited, and I think we see that there are a lot of opportunities in this area.
Oh, okay, sir. Sir, as also previous analysts also asked about acquisitions that you will do in near future if you will get a chance. Like, sir, is there any specific geographic areas or any product line which you are focusing on or looking to explore in future?
I think, you know, I, I've said this in the past as well. I think the acquisition space is to build a strong strengthen our base business. So we have the money to do it. Primarily, we're looking at an ROW business. So we're looking at different options. As of now, we're not able to close anything, but, you know, we're hoping in the next couple of years, we're able to find something that will give us a strong base. So to answer your question, yes, we're looking at acquisition and in the ROW business. I think that's what we're looking at.
Okay. Sir, last question is about how do you see the top line for FY 25 and EBITDA margin? Like, what we can expect, like, previously what you told us, you did it. So what we can expect for FY 25?
I think, we believe that we shall be able to grow top line wise also more than 50%-20%, and even on, earnings growth also, we're looking at about 20% comfortably. I think based on certain assumptions and, price erosion assumptions. But yeah, I think again, we'll know, but I'm optimistic that I think we'll be able to hold this.
Okay. Thank you so much, sir, and all the best for you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nirali Shah from Ashika Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, congratulations on the strong set of numbers. My first question is regarding Revlimid. So in the previous earnings call, you did mention that, with year three beginning from March 2024, we will have a new allocation for Revlimid. And, noting that exports are driving growth, could you provide some insight on the contribution of Revlimid to overall sales for 4Q? And also, how should we look at it in, in financial year 25 as well? So, do we anticipate any significant boost to revenue from this in the upcoming years?
Again, we can't predict the future, what the trajectory of pricing is, but overall, I think Revlimid is, you know, obviously a good portion of our earnings this quarter. Overall, our ROW business has also done well. Brazil has done extremely well. Canada has done well. Brazil, I think, direct exports, and our subsidiary exports are almost $25-26 million a year. Canadian sub has done nearly CAD 40 million, Canadian. So I think overall, our ROW business is doing well. I think this year we are expanding into... We have some very good orders from Egypt and Saudi. So I think we're working very hard to diversify our ROW business, and I think that endeavor has gone well.
In the US, split and all, we don't do for strategic reasons, but I think I think I've answered your question. I think a good portion of it is coming from Revlimid. And so I think this year, I think we've, you know, based on the orders that we have and overall business prospects, I think we've given a guidance. I think that, that covers your question. Thank you. Next, next question.
Yes, sir. Yeah, and my second question is about the agri business. So as far as I understand, the second half of the year is typically little bit weak compared to the first half. And then how should we view this segment for the first half of FY 25? Any guidance would be helpful.
I think, you know, we wanted to do about INR 140-150 crore. I think that was our estimation, but I think we fell short and by about INR 25-30 crore. We believe that, you know, there's monsoon was bad last year, and we had some returns, and we had to make a call. Do we take the returns and go forward or just carry the stock? So we just thought that it's better just to be prudent to just, you know, take a hit and clean it up and go forward. Overall, I think it's a good business. We are happy with we built a reasonably branded business in a very short duration of time. And in terms of guidance and all, I'll let you know.
I think maybe around June quarter, I think we can give you specific guidance of how the business is going. I think our internal estimation is that we should do well. I think we should have very good growth. I think very specifically, I'll tell you, I think in June, where we see things are going, so... And this is a truly, this is our first true year of operations. So this is our second true year of operation, so I think we'll have a better idea of how things are. I think a lot of it is contingent on we have some new launches we are planning. So I think once we have clarity on that, I think I can give you better guidance.
We're very optimistic with a lot of the first and first time generics that we're trying to launch in the agro business. I think the business in over a period of time should do very well. Okay?
Got it. Thank you. I have a couple of more questions. I'll come back to you.
Very good.
Thank you.
Next question, please.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Harshit Jhaveri from Pi Square Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Congratulations for the great set of numbers and meeting the guidance which you provided. I just wanted to understand, do we, with, so much cash in hand, do we have any significant CapEx plan, this year?
It's nothing large. I mean, we expect that we should spend about, I would believe, INR 300 crore-INR 350 crore a year is what we are spending in a year. I think, I think more or less, I think we'll spend that just, just for maintenance CapEx, just to make sure that, you know, what we're making and just, you know, and sometimes you just have to add a few things just to maintain, and build orders that you have. We're not building any new, new sites, but in the existing sites itself, we are expanding capacity. I think that's more or less what we're doing at this time.
Okay, understood. Sir, I just wanted to have a brief about how is the demand shaping up for the export customers? Like, all this geopolitical crisis, rate crisis, has this affected Natco or not?
Not so much, because our model is very different compared to everyone else. I don't do commodities. I don't do, you know, volume products. Our whole model is only doing niche, and a lot of our shipments are by air. Compared to the value and the air freight component is not a significant portion of the costing. So it does affect, of course, I mean, you know, air costing, the logistics costs have gone up, but it doesn't have the level of impact that it may have on someone who does more volume products. So yeah, there is impact, but nothing, nothing dramatic.
Okay, sir. Thank you, and all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rohit from iThought PMS. Please go ahead.
Am I audible?
Yeah. Go ahead, Rohit. Please, go.
Hi, congratulations on really good numbers. So two questions, sir. One was anything that you would like to share on the NCE that you have. That was my first question.
Okay, let me answer your question. So we have one NCE, which is, we're doing phase 2 in the U.S. at this time. And it's early days, so I think I've refrained from giving any guidances or any ideas. So it's... So we're doing phase 2. I think it's there. It, it's available, this information is available in the public domain. It's early stage, yeah, so I think and we're targeting, I think, a type of oral cancer specifically. So we'll see how things go. I think it's early days. At this time, I don't want to comment.
Sure. The other two questions I had were, one is, so you said 20% growth, which is on the basis of, excluding the, exceptional or on the reported numbers? That was one. And then I have one more question after this.
Can you rephrase that question? I didn't get the question. Please repeat it.
Okay, so I was saying, so you reported INR 1,388 crores of profit this year, and you said 20% growth on this, but we also have, like, one-offs of around INR 90 crores. So I mean, one should adjust the one-off and look at the adjustments or the reported number, is what I wanted to ask. That was the first question, and I have one more after this.
One-offs, that's a very tricky question you ask. I'll give you a straight answer. See, one-offs happen in any business. I mean, so you have a different one-off in a different year. So INR 1,388 assumes the one-off. I mean, but next year, I mean, we... In my mind, I'm starting with a clean slate, and hopefully I'll not generate another one-off, but anything can happen, right? So, we always budget for that. So you can't, you can't really, you know, you make one bad inventory decision, you'll have one bad, you know, currency risk. So I mean, there are so many moving parts, so it's very tough to judge.
My assumption is 13.88 assumes whatever that happened, and 20% growth assumes, you know, you know, everything, and so we can only make a projection so.
Sure, sure. So I understand. And my last question is, so I mean, so next year, or, I mean, next financial year, is when the generic goes off patent, and they could—you could see a substantial decline in earnings. So, I mean, how are you thinking about... I know this question has been asked, you know, many times, and we are now very close to that date. So how does, I mean, how does the management think about the business? We have a pipeline, I agree. But just from, let's say, FY 2027 onwards, how do you think building that base, which is going to be a big gap to fill? So if you can share some thoughts.
I mean, see, that's a challenge everybody faces. I think, you know, we all have very good products, and once the decline... I mean, we have this in history. If you look at Natco's history, we always have these big products. You know, Glatiramer used to do extremely well, now it's declined a bit. Tamiflu used to do extremely well, and then over a period of time, it declined. So, I mean, you just have to keep finding something new. That's the challenge that I face and everybody faces. And I think in a market like our business, in competitive business, where everybody's well financially geared, there's very little money that you can make in a product where there are multiple suppliers. So you can only make money in the niches.
I think I've said this many times, I'll repeat it one more time: Unless you get the niches right, you can't have earnings growth. I think I've been saying this, and I'll say it again. What do we have to replace it? I mean, I have definitely semaglutide. We have, I've said we have FTF on, on that product. So, on certain strengths we have FTF, and, and on Wegovy also we have FTF. So, and certain strengths we have sole FTF. So, I mean, that's probably one big idea. Then we have other first to files, like, you know, Yondelis , trabectedin. We have, we have, let's see, olaparib.
I mean, we all have to see how these things work out, but the trick is that you have about 3 or 4 of these, and in the next 2 years, you build another 2 or 3 ideas. Then you have about 6 or 7 ideas, and hopefully you'll be able to generate consistently something every year. You'll have 1 or 2 years where you'll have a bit of, you know, gap, but, but you gotta, you gotta accept it. I mean, you just can't fight it. You just, you just have to keep building the pipeline, and then hopefully you're able to do an acquisition which strengthens your base business. And that's how you have to look at it. There's no other way.
Sure. Thank you, Raju. All the very best.
Okay. Bye.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ameya from JM Financial. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you for taking my question, and congratulations to Raju on good set of numbers this quarter. The first question I have on the acquisition, which we are talking about, first, why are they in the market? What is the thought process there? And will it be a frontline acquisition, or you want to do some acquisition related to technology, which could help you to maybe build your R&D? But if you can give some clarity on the thought process of the M&A.
I think our emerging markets are very interesting. They're very consistent. They're a lot like domestic. I mean, you have local brands, and you have a distribution arm which is consistent and large, and gives you stability in earnings. And I think. Again, I have my own views on this. I personally believe this is the market to go to. It will give you more broad-based earnings and consistent earnings. And I think acquisitions in India are very expensive. I don't think they will give you the return on capital that you deserve, and I think you need to go out. And regulated markets, you know, we're already fairly saturated in that business, and we have a fairly strong presence in it.
So I think the only gap is the rest of the emerging markets. And this is the way to go, and I believe that this is the way forward. And this is how I see, in terms of acquisitions, this is the area where valuations have not run away compared to, you know, our home market, India.
Should we expect you consolidating your presence in existing ROW, or we will see a new market coming up?
Anything is open. I mean, we look at different in Natco's all the time. I mean, unless you close something, you can't really, you know, you know, stay at a particular position like, Raju asked me. But we're looking at things. I mean, again, I don't have an answer to your question, but I think you asked me what am I gonna do with the money, so this is what I feel we should do with the money, and I'm giving you my reasons for it.
Sure. And the next question I have is on the filings. Last quarter, you had said there are 2, 3 interesting filings over the next few months. Have they been already done or we are still in the process of filing these filings? And will those be a near-term opportunity post-Revlimid or could be a bit far out? Yeah. Thank you, sir.
I mean, we're looking to file a few products this year. Hopefully, we'll be able to pull off a couple of FTFs. Again, I don't have any news for you. I mean, we filed one recently. We filed a product for Rimegepant, in fact, for migraine, but it was like, I think, seven or eight filers on day one, so it kind of takes away the chance of it. So, you have to see, I mean, unless you file and look at the position on your patent position, number of filers who have filed on that day, you can't tell whether you have a unique position. So we'll keep trying.
As I said a few minutes ago, with the other, other person who asked me, we just have to keep filing different things and then hopefully we'll get something right. Yeah.
Sure. But generally, we do have idea, right, on the—because the product we talked about is oral solid, OD basically, RD. So, where maybe there could be a possibility of filing, but maybe if a complex injectables there in the RD or something like that, I thought maybe-
We have, we have umpteen number of ideas. I think it's not the lack of ideas, it's only about the execution. I think if we pull off, you know, I was just saying, right, if we pull off another three ideas in the next two years, I think we've done a great job, you know. So then as, you know, for your pipeline post-2027. So I think that should be the objective. And you just have... I mean, if you ask me, if I look at my R&D pipeline, I have at least five, six ideas, but by the time you file, you should hope that somebody else doesn't file. You should also hope that you'll be the first to file. There's so many moving parts, so it's very difficult to judge.
Mm-hmm.
You're probably in this business, you're competing through Para IV by the molecule. You're probably competing with about four or five guys you have to beat. So it is, in a way, it's easy, right? If you get-- you're able to beat four guys, you win the race, right? But at the same time, your execution capability, your timing, your science, plays a big role. And as I said, if you're able to pull off two, three of these ideas, I think you've done well. So let's hope. Yeah.
Sure. Thank you so much. I will join that.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Bino, from Elara Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, Rajeev and Rajesh. Congrats again for a great year. Just thinking beyond January 2026 on Revlimid, does the, the distribution agreement and, profit share agreement with, continue beyond, the settlement date of January 2026, in pretty much the same term?
I think we have a distribution. Is the question, do we have a distribution agreement with Teva, which will continue? I think, yes. We have an agreement with Teva that will continue for-
And the profit share will be pretty much in the same term?
Yeah, yeah. I mean, yeah, for the U.S. market.
Oh, yeah.
We are working with them in the US market.
Okay. Yeah. Thank you.
Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Karan Agarwal from Old Bridge Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Just one question. You know, two years that Revlimid's come through, how is the pricing traversed, say, from the first time that you launched till, say, Q4 of FY 2024? And in the short term, in the next 20-21 months, do you have a view on the stability of pricing?
I can't answer that question, my friend. I can't answer that question. It's strategic. I can't.
Okay, maybe not the future looking, but, how has it traversed in the last two years?
It goes by the market dynamics. I cannot, I can't second-guess it.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay. Thanks, Rajeev.
Bye, bye.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nikhil from SiMPL. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Good morning. I hope I'm audible.
Yes, please go ahead.
Yeah, congratulations on good set of numbers. Three questions. One is, if you look at Revlimid, we had this Canada launch based on the tender. If you have to draw parallels between what we... How the Canada market behaved for Revlimid and how US, would there be any parallels which can be drawn in terms of how much pricing? Or would you say it would be completely different? Because it's a REMS product, so the whole idea was that the pricing erosion, once it goes off, it may not be the way most molecules happen. So are there any parallels which can be drawn between Canada and US?
See, you know that we don't market the product in the US. Teva decides the strategy, and Teva decides the pricing. And every market is very unique. You can't draw parallels between any. Canada is a completely different market. I mean, how the product is distributed and how the tender cycles work. So to answer your question, no, you can't draw parallels. It's a different world, two different countries, two different markets, two different strategies, two different, and different marketing partners. So, you can't, nothing is comparable, honestly. Every market is unique in their own way.
Okay.
Okay.
Second question was on Crop Sciences business. So, we had a couple of products on pheromone based, and there were more on the pipeline and even CTPR combinations and all. Now, one year down the line, we've done the launch. What could be—what do you think could be changes which we need to bring into our execution? And, one of the reasons for going into crop sciences was the idea was that this will provide some stability to the base business and can be scalable and very profitable. So are there any changes to that assumption, from where you began and today, how you see the business?
Done well. I think we have done well with the CTPR combination. Tembotrione has not taken off as well as we thought. I think it's a lot of appreciation for the product, but I think, the pricing has been on the higher side because of our costs being high. So the adoption has not been as strong as we would like to. Because at the end of the day, India is a very price-sensitive market. Overall, I think we're trying to expand our portfolio, so we are present in multiple segments, so that we could, you know, have, a larger sale. And we're trying to, you know, increase our portfolio and try to do a lot of unique launches. We are. I think we are doing well. I mean, you know, we started off well.
you know, it's a reasonably large brand business. I mean, to build INR 100 crore brand business from business that you're not aware, 3, 4 years ago, it's a pretty laudable achievement. I think things are going as per our expectation, I think. But still, I think it'll take another 2, 3 years for the business to get established.
Okay.
Yes, I think things are on track. I think that's, that's my sense, yeah.
Okay. Last question: See, Rajeev, you've always talked about that acquisitions in India are pricey, and we've seen this is happening in the market. If you look at regulated, the non-regulated market acquisitions, the amount of cash which we are generating, I don't think over the next three years, the cumulative cash will actually... Even after this acquisition, we will have some cash. So when you are thinking about deployment beyond 2030, and the whole idea for us has been looking at opportunities in oral dosage. But do you think that at some point we may look at changing our line of approach, maybe towards more biosimilar or completely different technology for products beyond 2030?
Or just how do you think about the pipeline beyond, say, for R&D beyond 2030 kind of business? So do you think there could be a large investment there?
See, I tell you, every business goes through a change. What works 5 years ago won't work anymore, and you need to sort of reinvent your business every year, every moment, you have to reinvent yourself. See, what I did 15 years ago, if I do now, it won't work. Similarly, what you're doing now won't work in the next 10, 15 years. So that, if your question is that we have to constantly reinvent ourselves, absolutely correct. So I think my sense is, yes, you know, you need to work on newer molecules. You need to go to newer markets. So what we're doing, what is easy, which is going to newer countries, expanding geographically and going front-end, compared to the, you know, the model, which was, you know, distribution model. So that I think we have moved up the value chain.
So that's a big change that I made in the last few years compared to what we've done in the past. We continue to invest in more complex generics, you know, drug deliveries, oligopeptides, that type of product. So that I think is another thing we're doing. Another thing that we're talking about, like, for example, CAR-T is another area that we're investing in. So you got to keep your fingers in different pies. You got to constantly keep investing. I'm just giving you a flavor of what we are doing. So but I see as of now, you know, we're trying different things. You know, we're trying one NCE, we are trying R2 generics, we're trying geographical expansion. So we are trying different things. We're trying five, six ideas, so...
And I think eventually you'll land somewhere, and based on that, if something clicks, then obviously you go to the next level as a firm. But I, I take your point. I mean, yes, you are absolutely right. You just have to keep reinventing yourself. And you're absolutely right that the future drugs are all going towards rare diseases and biotech. They're not sticking to the, you know, the chemical labs. Absolutely right. And I think, you need to reinvent yourself. Absolutely.
Sure. Thanks. I'll come back in the team.
Good.
Thank you. The next question is from Rashmi Shetty from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations on good set of numbers. So, I have two questions. First question is related to the domestic business. You know, you have taken a INR 35 crore charge, and there was some change in the business model. If you can give more color on it, and if you can also give information whether the impact is over or we are going to see in quarter one as well. And, since we were doing quarterly sales of INR 100 crores in India business, even if you, you know, advance the INR 35 crore, we are still running at the rate of INR 85 crores or something. This is just a quarter-on-quarter basis, or, you know, we would be able to maintain this INR 100 crore quarterly, this is something which we expect?
I mean, it's a one-time charge because we just changed a few things on the way of distributing. I think the run rate is still 95-100. There's no change in that. Absolutely, there's no change in it. You see, even if we take the reversal, our annual sales is nearly close to INR 400 crore in spite of the reversal. So I think, there's no change in that. I think we are consistent. The business is doing well, the secondaries are doing well. We believe the business is growing around 8%-10%. We're looking at some jackpot ideas here as well. I mean, hopefully, we'll be able to execute couple of good ideas. But, you know, no, I don't see a change. I think it's, the business is fairly consistent. It's a one-time.
Okay. And we will be able to grow 14%-15% from this level, whatever we have done around INR 3 crore-INR 6 crore in FY 2024?
I think so, yeah. I would believe so. I think the way things are going, yes, I would believe so.
Okay. And my second question is related to Copaxone. In the U.S., if you can comment more on, you know, how the sales were during the year, whether the market share is steady or seen any sort of price erosion or any erosion in the market share, if you can comment on it?
... It's been consistent. I think it's done well. I think there are only two generics, Sandoz and Teva. So has done extremely well with this product. But as you know, a lot of the multiple sclerosis patients are moved to the oral formulation as opposed to the injected formulation. There's been a slight decline in the consumption of the of this product. But overall, it has its position, and I think it's doing reasonably well. It's been steady as of now.
Got it, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from Kunal Randeria from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, Rajeev. Rajeev, earlier you used to mention there's a base business pack, which was around INR 200-250 crores annually. So does it still stand, or is it higher or lower than what you had previously mentioned?
I didn't understand your question, Kunal. Can you rephrase that question? What is INR 200 crore? I'm sorry, I didn't understand.
The base business pack, profit after tax, you used to mention should be around INR 200-250 crore. You used to mention this maybe 2-3 quarters back. I just want to understand whether it still holds or it's better, or it, you know, gone down a bit.
I think it's improved a bit. I think it's improved, but there are a lot of, you know, other R&D expenditures that were there. So, I mean, I can't really tell you, like, this quarter we're doing this much or that quarter we're doing that much. But I think I would say, I mean, honestly, I don't answer—I don't have an answer to your question. It is probably around, maybe INR 350-400 crores, I would believe. Yeah, I think around then, yeah. If you put me on the spot and ask me like this, I can't answer because I... Because there are so many moving parts. But if you want me to, like, I mean, answer it in a broad sense, yeah, I think it sounds about right, yeah.
Sure, sure. And secondly, just sticking out loud here, Rajeev, you know, Revlimid kind of settlement was, you know, bit unique in the industry. Do you think that such kind of settlements between the generics and the innovator will occur in future also? Or is it that because a lot of generics were also sued, you know, discourage such a things?
I don't know, Kunal. I don't have an answer to that question.
Okay. I just wanted to get a broad thoughts on this, you know, and understand. Not worry. Just lastly, you know, Rajeev, you know, I think the Kothur plant is under a regulatory scanner. Just want to confirm that all the new filings you are doing are they from multiple sites or, you know, just want to understand your de-risking strategy here.
Generally, I mean, we have two sites for the US. So we have Hyderabad and we have Vizag. So yeah, some files, like Remicade that we filed recently, we filed from Vizag. We, we can use these two sites, but sometimes we also use a different CMO, because our model is doing niches, right? So, like Semaglutide, we did it a CMO. So it's not that, you know, everything has to be done in-house. And the way our model works, you know, because we do so many niches, you know, we could always move it around. It's not very difficult. And we always, for our top products, keep two sites as a backup, so.
Okay. Got it. Thanks, Rajeev. Thanks for all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from Ritika Vivek from ValueQuest. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for taking my question. My first question is on the U.S. business. So what are the key launches we expect in the next two, three years? If you could highlight that. And majorly, we will see Revlimid going off patent in FY 2026 end. So what should be the key launches or how should we expect which product this Revlimid revenue to offset?
What are the key launches, you're saying, in the next few years? Is that what you're saying?
Yes, yes.
Yeah. So I mean, we mentioned that, I mean, semaglutide we mentioned, I think olaparib we have mentioned, carfilzomib we have mentioned, trabectedin we have mentioned. So I think this is all there in the investor presentation. In terms of size, I mean, semaglutide is the biggest, and then olaparib is the next biggest one. And then, then we have Imbruvica, but we have to see what happens in the court case. So I mean, then trabectedin and carfilzomib, so they all have different levels of values, but we have five, six ideas, yeah.
Right. But in the next two years-
Subject to, you know, patent... Sorry, say that again. I'm sorry.
Sorry. In the next 2-3 years, do we expect any of these products to come or to get launched?
I can't answer that question directly because the settlements are bound by confidentiality. So I think closer to the launch, I think we can discuss about it. They're all gonna play out in the next few years. That's correct. But time, some are, the litigations are not resolved, so there's no answer to that question. So once they are resolved, we can't answer, tell the date because they're bound by confidentiality, but they'll op- they will open up in the next few years. That's correct.
So sir, last question is on agrochemicals. You mentioned earlier that it will take 2-3 years for the business to get established. In your sense, how are we seeing growth from CTPR in the next 2-3 years, and also the overall agrochemical business?
What, how do I see the growth in agro business? Is that what your question is?
Yes.
I think we have very good pipeline. I think we are expecting this business... I think our internal target is that this business has to triple in the next three years. I think we want to go to INR 300 crore. So I think, yeah, I think that's the target that we're given. So let's see how. Hopefully, we'll be able to do it in the next, the coming three quarters, yeah.
... Sure. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Naman Gala from Ventura Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you, sir, for this opportunity. Actually, sir, if you could just highlight the different growth drivers for your all the segments till FY 27, and what kind of revenue growth can we see across the segments?
It all depends on the, I mean, so there are three, four issues that we look at. We need to have clarity on some of the niche filings that we have, which we'll able to get in the next few months. So I think we mentioned about the first-to-file already, and then we'll hopefully add a few more first-to-file to it. So that's probably one moving part. The second portion is the base business. How our ROW will do, how well we'll scale up in the other ROW markets, that's the second growth driver. And third is the acquisition. I think we're able to consummate an acquisition, so that will also strengthen the business.
I think these three tracks are the most important things that we need to take care of for achieving consistent growth in the next few years.
Okay. My second question would be, what is the employee count? Yeah, can you hear me?
Yeah, please go ahead.
Yeah. So what would be the employee count for the year? We can see that the employee cost has come down from 18% to 13.9%. So can we sustain the current level?
I think so. I think sustain the current level of costing on the employees or the number of employees?
Number of employees.
Employee count, I mean, it all, it all depends on how the products do. But I think for now it will hold up, and the percentage that you said will hold up. Total, I think, including, I mean, without the contractors and the part, what you call, what it... The contract- if you remove the contractors, I think it's about 4,000-5,000 employees in the system. And to include, the contractors and everyone, I think it's about 5,700-5,800 or so, at least my understanding.
Okay, thank you, sir. That's all.
Okay. Yeah. Next, next question.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Chetan Doshi from Tulsi Capital. Please go ahead.
Congratulations for the excellent set of numbers, and, as per the guidance, you have performed very well. So congratulations to the entire team. So my specific question is that we have taken a hit as far as API revenue is concerned for the last quarter. So this is one time, or this is going to be a regular feature? And the second question is regarding the Crop Health Sciences, wherein you have underutilized that division. So you are planning to some launch some products and bought some raw material and then it was discarded. What is it that INR 30 crore is you have accounted for?
The hit is a one-time. Overall, the INR 90 crore hit is a one-time. So I think, the domestic is just, as we explained a few minutes ago, it was, a change in the business model. The secondary sale is consistent, close to INR 100 crore a quarter, so I, I don't see any challenge there. Your question is specifically why do we take a hit on the agro? So we... What we did was, we built some intermediate capability at a third-party site, and we were using it for the launch of, the agro chemicals that we're making internally at Natco. What has happened is there's been a dramatic change in the market environment, where the pricing has dropped dramatically for the intermediates, and we are not utilizing that intermediate capability.
Because we are not utilizing the intermediate capability, we had to make a provision for non-utilization of that. So we took a hit on depreciation of amount and certain advance we gave to that, to that supplier. So I think that's why we took a INR 30 crore hit on the agro.
Okay. So that is one time, like, and you are targeting INR 300 crore in this segment in coming couple of years, right?
Yeah, I think so. Yes. Yes, absolutely, sir.
Yeah, I think so. That's all clear. Thank you.
Next, next question, please.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sandeep Dixit from RJV Advisors Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Just to, couple of, actually one question on margins. We have seen a massive spurt in these margins over the last, 12-18 months. Is this sustainable going forward, or is this the new the, is this the new Natco Pharma?
Margins. I mean, it all depends on the product mix. I think if you have a good product mix, the margins are sustainable. So I think it all depends on the product mix.
No, I understand that, but I mean, see, I mean, let me look at these numbers. They have come from 29% in FY 2021 to 13% to 33%-43% now. So obviously, product mixes don't change quarterly or whatever. They, I presume they change reasonably, well, let's say a few years. So should we say that these are the kind of margins we can look for over the next year or two?
I think so, yeah. Should.
Okay.
Yeah. The product mix holding up? Yes.
Okay. And then, are we... I mean, if you are talking about 15%-20% top line growth, stable margins, isn't your 20% profit growth a little conservative? The mathematics just doesn't add up.
... There's, I'll answer your question. There's always something that you never know will happen, right? So why, why promise something that the other person asks you, "Is there gonna be another one time?" There's always something that will go wrong, right? When something has to go wrong, will go wrong. Say less and you do more, people are happy with you. You say more and you do less, everybody's unhappy with you. So that's, I think that's why we. Yeah. Okay.
Thank you.
Right. You never know. See, I'll tell you something. I mean, honestly, you know, when you go out, I make it with my best, you know, our best estimate. But there's always so many moving parts that happen in a business, it's tough to sort of, you know, guide. I think you can only make an estimate, based on what you believe will happen. And there are always so many unforeseen things that happen during the year. So it's very... And a business as large as us, you know, you're always gonna have surprises. So that's why you better to be conservative. Yeah.
Fair. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Deepak Malhotra from CapGrow Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello.
Yeah, please questions.
Yeah. First question is regarding the other income. I just wanted to understand the breakup of the same, and then is it going to be a concurrent feature going forward since we have a bit of cash on the balance sheet, please?
Other income of INR 42 crores, that we had in the last quarter, I think, thirty crores is coming from interest from the deposits. So that and, you know, other, you know, R&D tax benefits and all. I think, but, I mean, I don't have literally itemized breakup, but I would say most of it is coming from, interest income from the deposits. I think if I remember top, I'm just saying roughly, I mean, you asked me on the spot, so I'm trying to answer. But yeah, I think most of it is coming from the, what do you call? Interest, the deposits interest.
Yeah. Before I ask my second question, I obviously want to congratulate, I mean, the management team for what you've achieved. I think this is quite spectacular, indeed.
Thank you.
Now, most of my questions have been kind of partially answered, but just to rephrase. You know, you talked of basically reinventing the business, you know, and in terms of the growth strategy going forward, and, you know, when you set up a target of 50%+ both on sales and that. There are still no easy see spots, you know, when we look at the key Para IV filings and you know how complicated the market is. While you have obviously taken decisions to get into crop science business, and as you talked of growing the business three times going forward. But since you have already cash of close to INR 2,000 crores, and you mentioned about a CapEx of INR 350 crores, you also alluded to a possible buyback or an acquisition.
While you have also made a small investment in Cellogen, cell and gene therapy solutions. What my question is, I mean, how are we really trying to reinvent ourselves and actually achieve this growth? Which key markets are we targeting and what key therapeutic segments you are looking? Since again, you alluded that, you know, you are looking at new molecules which will basically address, you know, the new kind of diseases and so on and so forth. So I know it's a little broad question, but more strategic in nature, probably. Thank you.
I mean, nothing's easy, yeah. So, I mean, you come back and say that, is it easy to find more Para IVs, especially, when you're competing with people who all have cash and who all are very large companies? Yes. It's not an easy business by any chance. But I think, you know, we have proved ourselves, consistently over the last decade, that we, we can deliver these complex generics, and we have good execution capabilities. I think we are - I think there's no doubt in that. I mean, we have a knack for finding these, niches. I still believe, sitting, I mean, answering your call, that there are enough opportunities. You just have to put your heart and, strategize smartly. There are enough ideas that you can execute. It's not difficult.
I don't think it's difficult, but I think it's a lot of work, and you need to have clear line of sight, clear strategy, and hire the right resources and to execute the strategy. There are a lot of opportunities. They're harder, yes, absolutely correct, but there are a lot of opportunities. I and I gave some color to it a few minutes ago, and then we said we can look at oligopeptides, we could look at drug deliveries, we could look at niche Para IVs, harder to oncology products. So there are... I mean, there are opportunities. I mean, this is just some examples of what you could do. Where do you see this world going? I mean, I said, you know, we probably have to do a geographical expansion. As I said, we have to probably do an acquisition.
But these are the three pillars you have to build a business, and, hopefully, I think we'll be able to, you know, achieve all the, be able to check all the three boxes. And if we don't get the three boxes right, I don't think, we can grow. I think it's very clear. So we have to get all the three boxes right. Geographical expansion, niche filings, and an acquisition. I think we probably have to get all three of them right. At least two out of three, clearly, we got to get them right. Otherwise, you know, But that's the challenge of the business, right? I mean, that's, that's how it's gonna be.
Yeah. Just to pick up on that, in terms of like, the way Revlimid has been such a staggering success, I mean, over the next 2-3 years, I know it may not be possible to share in terms of the acquisition targets or, you know, what equity you are, you know, looking at internally. But how close are we, say, in terms of two things: A, in terms of, as you mentioned, about 5-6 key Para IV filings you're looking at and making a success just 2-3 out of 10 over the next 2-3 years. So how close are we to that, A? And B, in terms of any acquisitions and how close you think you are in terms of securing any such, you know, deal like First to File, the same, please? Thank you.
I mean, I, we have consistently delivered these complex filings, right? I mean, every year we come up with something all the time. So I mean, so as I said a few minutes ago, I mean, if the next 2 years we achieve 3 first-to-file with limited competition, I think it's a tremendous success, 2-3. Even if we deliver, like, 1-1.5 idea a year, I think we've done a great job. I think, we are at it. That's all I can tell you. We are at it, and we believe we're able to pull something off. I, I can only... I mean, unless I show you something, I can't come back and say I've done it, right? So all I can say is we have a good feeling, and we're able to do it.
We have a good track record, I think. And that's the best way I can answer the question. Okay?
Thank you.
Bye.
Thank you so much. Bye.
Next question. This is my last question, yeah?
Okay, sir.
Yeah.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Chandra from HDFC Securities. Please go ahead.
Good morning, sir, and congratulations for the set of numbers. My question was specifically targeted towards the debt the company is having INR 116 crore, I think, so I heard, and we can save by repaying the INR 19 crore tax interest which we are paying. Is the company looking out for repaying the debt and becoming debt-free? Which, how much debt you're saying? I'm sorry. Yeah, 116, and, out of the 116 crores, honestly, I tell you what the split is. This is as of today, okay? So INR 40 crore is an EPC credit. So you can only pay it back on that particular day. You can't prepay it, so you have to receive a certain receivable, which will set it off. INR 76 crore is foreign bill discounting, which is self-liquidating.
So, I mean, it's just receivable that you sell, and you get paid in 90 days. That you get paid, you know, you'll get paid in 60-90 days. So you set off the, the foreign bill discounting against the receivable, I think more or less, you know, at a net, net level, it's zero. So, it's not a large amount. I mean, just these are only used for working capital operations. I, I wouldn't, I wouldn't be too concerned. So the company is only almost debt-free? I mean, at a net, net level, we're actually at cash, no? I mean, it's as of, I think I'll state the number literally. So INR 2,004 crore is the cash and listed shares and, investments and, deposits we have, and INR 116 crore is the debt we have as of today. Yes, that's correct.
Mm-hmm. Thank you. Thank you. Okay? Great. So that is my last question. Again, thank you so much. Thanks for your questions and your inquiries, and, I appreciate the time you guys have spent, talking to us. Good day. Thank you so much.
Thank you all. Thank you all. Thank you. On behalf of Batlivala & Karani Securities, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.