Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Natco Pharma Q2 FY 2025 earnings conference call hosted by Batlivala & Karani Securities India Private Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be no opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Hrishikesh Patole from Batlivala & Karani Securities India Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Hello. Good morning. Good morning, everyone. On behalf of B&K Securities, I welcome you all to the Q2 FY 2025 earnings conference call of Natco Pharma . Hope everyone is in good health and doing well. On behalf of NATCO today, we have with us Mr. Rajeev Nannapaneni, Director and CEO; Mr. Rajesh Chebiyam, Executive Vice President, Crop Health Sciences. I now hand over the call to Rajesh for the management's opening remarks, after which we'll open the session for Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Hrishikesh. Good morning and welcome, everyone, to NATCO's conference call discussing our earnings results for the second quarter of FY 2025, which ended September 30th, 2024. The disclaimer: during this call, we may be making certain forward-looking statements or statements about future events, and anything said on this call which reflects our outlook for the future must be reviewed in conjunction with the risks that the company faces. I'd like to say that the material of the call is set for the participant questions, the property of NATCO, and cannot be recorded or read or attached before NATCO expresses its information. I will begin with the results highlights and then followed by an interactive Q&A session. I hope all of you have received your financials and the press release that was sent earlier out. It's also available on our website.
NATCO recorded consolidated total revenue of INR 1,434.9 crores for the second quarter of FY 2025 that ended on 30th September 2024, as against INR 1,060.8 crores for the same period last year, reflecting a growth of 35.3%. The net profit for the period on a consolidated basis was INR 676.5 crores, as against INR 369 crores same period last year, showing a robust growth of about 83%. The company has shown continued strong growth during the second quarter, primarily driven by export formulation business and a stable domestic pharma business. The board of directors has declared a second interim dividend of INR 1.50 per equity share for FY24/25. The revenue split and details have also been communicated earlier, so we'll pause here and take a few questions. Thank you all.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin with the question and answer session. Anyone wishing to ask a question may please press star and one on your touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to yield handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Participants, in order to ask a question, you may please press star and one. The first question is from the line of Ankit Minocha from Adezi Ventures Family Office. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Good morning, Rajeev . Congratulations on a fantastic set of numbers. Just looking at Q3 for last year, I think Q3 for last year was sequentially a lot weaker versus Q2 of last year, but then much stronger YOY with over 50% outlying growth. So from what you're seeing on the ground currently, should we expect a similar trend for Q3 this year in terms of strong YOY growth?
I think compare, I mean, the quarter is still running, so it's very tough to judge, but most of our Revlimid quota is a little bit less, so I think we'll have some tail that's left in this quarter, the December ending quarter. Again, I can't give you a guidance on the number, but overall, I think we have said that we'll grow reasonably well and we'll grow by 20% compared to last year. We will stick to the same guidance. That's about it.
Wonderful. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nirali Shah from Ashika Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Hi, Rajeev. Congratulations on great numbers. My first question is on Revlimid. So how has the market share for Revlimid evolved in the second quarter compared to the first quarter? And as you had mentioned, we are expecting our ramp-up of almost capturing one-third of the market share by January. So are there any challenges that we are observing here, or everything is going on smoothly?
So far, so good. I have nothing. I mean, things are reasonably well. I think we've done all right. So at least for this financial year, we don't expect any challenges. Next year, we'll see. I think that's so I think once we'll have more clarity, maybe around March or April of next year, we'll speak to our partner and try to get more guidance on how things are going to be, and so far, so good.
Contribution from Revlimid in second quarter, is it higher than the first quarter, or it's in the same line?
I think generally, we don't give guidance. It's like in the same range.
Okay. And as you mentioned to the earlier participant about the volume that we have exhausted, if you could give any percentage on how much of the volume has already been exhausted in the first half and how much is remaining?
Generally, we don't do that. We don't give that much detail. I think most of it is done. Some tail is left. I think that's a crucial thing.
Okay. Okay. And my second question is, what's the progress on high-value product filings that will essentially be bridging the gap post-Revlimid? And also in the pipeline, we can see that Tabrecta has come in as a sole FTF alongside Kyprolis and Jevtana in the shared FTF pipeline. So any color on the three, all of these three?
So I didn't understand your question, so I'll just paraphrase so that I got you correctly. So you're asking me what is the pipeline post-Revlimid? And the second question is you said something about another company. Which product I didn't catch? Could you say that again?
Yeah. I'm seeing post-Revlimid pipeline. So any update on the litigation portion or the filing portion? So we do have a huge pipeline post-Revlimid. Any update on that? And I guess I can ask the second question of this one.
Again, post-Revlimid, I think the big ones are obviously the biggest one is semaglutide. So there are two formulations of semaglutide, one of which one formulation we have already settled. It's already there in the public domain. And the second one is not settled yet. And the one that is settled, I think two strengths we have sole FTF and other strengths we have shared FTF. The one that is not settled, we have sole FTF, and so that's still under litigation. That's one big one. And then in addition to that, another big one is olaparib. So this one, again, we're awaiting approval. And the trial is set, I think the trial date is set, I think, a year from now, a year and a half from now. I don't recollect the date, but so that's about that.
And then we have some smaller filings like Castle 10 milligram, bosentan, and Bant 32 milligram. So these are also expected in the next few years. And then maybe another large one where we have 100% of the economics is adagrasib and capmatinib. So those are very early stage right now. So I think these are the major ones. Hopefully, in the next one and a half, two years, we expect to find another two, three very interesting products. So then we have good visibility for the next 8-10 years. I think we have six or seven very interesting filings. Yeah, that's yours.
Understood. And the third that I wanted to ask was that in the IP, we are seeing there's one addition to the sole FTF, and there's two additions to the shared FTF pipeline. Tabrecta is the one for sole FTF, and Kyprolis and Jevtana in the shared FTF pipeline. So any color on this based on the timelines or general litigation, anything meaningful?
I can't comment.
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Okay. Next caller.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Dharmil Shah from Paras Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi, Rajeev. Congrats on a very good set of numbers. So last month, we had given notification that Mylan and Novo have reached on a settlement for Ozempic drug. So could you please throw some light by when we can expect this product in India market, and by when in U.S. market? When do we expect to get FDA approval? Any tentative timelines or your views on the development?
The launch date is confidential, so we can't answer that question. And the review is ongoing with the U.S. FDA. At this time, I can't share any timelines. The last question, India launch, I think the compound expires in 2026. So all goes well, we get the regulatory approval, and I think we don't have any other challenges. I think we should be able to launch post-2026.
Okay, so if no challenges, then by FY 2027, we can expect.
I think so. I think 26 earlier, I think, is the patent expiry. I don't recollect the month, something like that. Assuming we get the regulatory and there are no other challenges, yes.
What is the market size currently for India market?
Obviously, right now, the supply from innovator has been limited. So we don't really know the true size of the market. Second, once the Indian generic comes, the pricing will also be competitive. So we're actually creating a new market. So I think it'll be interesting. There'll also be enough competition as well. So I would like to be guarded in saying anything, but it'll be a good product. Definitely be a good product. We hope to be in the first wave. And as you know, we have piloted in DCGI, so the review is ongoing. So I think I'm positive. Let's see how things go.
As of now, we are the only ones who got the approval for India market?
Nobody got approval, my friend. Everybody has filed in India. Everybody has filed. I think quite a few people have filed. I think, sorry, I mean, Reddy has filed. I know Sun has filed. We have filed. So I mean, these are I mean, some companies are named. I'm not naming everyone, but I'm just telling top of my head I'm naming. I think we'll probably find it. So we should assume that most of these guys will turn up on the first wave. But as you said, the market is interesting enough, so we'll have to see how things go.
Okay. And how do you see our December quarter?
Sorry to interrupt. Mr. Dharmil Shah, may we request that you return to the question?
Just one. I mean, I just asked one question.
There's about a question waiting for the answer.
Yeah, yeah. I got the question. I'll answer it. I'll answer it. It's fine. Yeah.
No, no. I was saying how do you see our? One second. One second. One second.
I got the question. Yeah. December quarter.
No, but last December, there were some tenders.
Okay.
Oh, okay. Let me complete. So last December, we had one-off revenue due to some tenders in last quarter of, I mean, December quarter. So can we expect any such tenders in this quarter?
I can't answer that question directly. I think this quarter, December quarter, will be weaker than Q2, that much I can tell you. And we have some tail that is left. And I think that's all I can answer. At this time, I can't answer. That's the best I can answer. And I think general guidance we have given that we'll do 20% better than last year, so.
20% revenue growth. 20% revenue growth, right?
Profitability growth. That growth.
That growth.
That's the big thing that we have.
Okay. Okay.
Okay. Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to.
Let me call it.
Sure, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to enter, the management will be able to address questions from all participants in this conference. We request you to limit your questions to two per participant only. The next question is from the line of Jash from Dalal & Broacha Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. So am I audible?
Yes, you are. Go ahead. Go ahead.
Yeah. So congratulations on the great set of numbers. So the first question is with semaglutide for the partnered FDF. Now that we have settled with the Innovator, what should be the rough timeline for the launch? I'm not pinning you on any number. So I mean, is it in the next one to three years, three to five years, or beyond five years? Broader timeline. I'm not pinning you on any number.
No, my friend. I can't answer that question. It's bound by confidentiality. I can't answer that question. Sorry.
Okay. No issues, sir. And so the second question on the sizable launches that we highlighted in the last quarter, I'm talking about olaparib. So if I heard it correctly, we have already filed and we are waiting for the approval?
We have filed the product. Yes, that's correct. And.
The target date is when it happens?
Waiting for review. And then in the last call, we also said that it was filed from our Kothur side, and we moved it to our partner side. We moved it to Alembic side now because of the warning letter we've had. So that amendment also has been filed with the FDA. So hopefully, if all goes well, I think hopefully we'll get approval sometime. And then the outcome of the litigation, I think these are the two driving factors.
Okay. Because this is a partner product, what should be the economics for the same?
For olaparib, you said?
Yes.
olaparib is 50/50 with Alembic.
50/50. Okay. Perfect. Thank you.
Okay then. Thank you. Next caller.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kunal Randeria from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, Rajeev and Rajesh. Rajeev, first one on semaglutide. So if you can share how many markets you would be targeting in 2026, would it just be India or would it also be Canada and some of the emerging markets? And then secondly, how do you intend to distribute this product because we may not have a sales force in a lot of these markets?
I think the biggest opportunity we see for this product right now is in India and U.S. And Mylan has the rights for the regulated market, so they'll open up when they actually open up. I'm seeing some ROW opportunity, but not as much as what other people are projecting. I think for our business model that we have had, I think we have, I think U.S. is probably the biggest one. And I think second will be India and then maybe regulated market. I think this is the strategy that we have.
But India, you may need to add field force for this, or you want to partner with someone else?
Sorry. Please say that question again, please.
In India, do you have the field force to market this, or do you have to partner with someone?
I think we do. I mean, we have set it up. I think we have the setup. We have been covering cardio and endocrinologists for the last few years. Advantage is our own product, so we're making it ourselves, so we control a lot of the manufacturing aspect of it. How well we'll do and all, I mean, the market is going to be large enough, so I think we should do well. I think there's a reasonable opportunity in the front end, and also there's a reasonable opportunity in third-party as well, so hopefully, I think as long as we're in first wave and I think we get it right, I think we should be okay.
Got it. Now, the second question is on financials. Now, yeah. So Rajeev, just on your financials, now, if I were to look at some of your ex-international formulation revenue, like India or API, so before we launched Alembic till date, they have not really grown. While a lot of the expenses, like staff costs, SG&A has gone up multiple. So I do understand that you have been investing for future growth. But if I were to, for a moment, exclude Alembic profits from your numbers, would it be fair to assume that the ex-Revlimid business will not be making a lot of money for you on the bottom line?
See, again, we are going to answer this question. See, one is, as you rightly said, we're using so the expenses are overstated because we are spending a lot more on R&D. For example, this quarter, we spent just on R&D, bio studies, and exhibit batches, we spent almost INR 100 crore-INR 125 crore. Just sort of, I mean, if Revlimid wasn't there, then I don't think we could have spent so much money on R&D. Okay? So if you say, "Would we be able to do the same amount of R&D if Revlimid was not there?" Probably not. So I think you need to sort of balance what you call the expenses with respect to the income that we generate. See, I think in terms of our future, I think we always say, "I mean, we have a good pipeline. We're going to have years of volatility.
I'm not going to come and tell you if a particular product falls off, then obviously there'll be an impact on the earnings, but we always look for the long-term portfolio, and we look at R&D ideas, which will be rewarding, but in the near term, they don't reward, so you're going to see volatility. I mean, there's no way I can't avoid that situation, but you got to take a long-term view on that business. You will see ups and downs. I think that's how you have to look at it.
Okay. I mean, my only point was, since you have the Revlimid question, you're spending a lot more. But if I were to just, for mathematical sake, exclude Revlimid profits, you would not be making too much money. That was my question, actually.
I'll have a caveat to that. If I don't have Revlimid, if you don't have a big product, then you can't spend on R&D also. So then the expenses also get reduced by that much. So it's not a I mean, you can't say that I'll spend a lot of money, but I don't have a profit. You only spend if you make the money. Both are interlinked, right? So how does that work? So that's how it is.
Got it. This is very helpful. Thanks a lot, Rajeev.
Okay. Right. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Bino Pathiparampil from Elara Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, Rajeev. Just thinking ahead on general travel and.
Hello. Mr. Bino? So your voice is already very muffled.
Hello. Is it better now?
Yes, sir. Much better. Please proceed. Thank you.
Okay. Thanks. Rajeev, just thinking ahead on generic Revlimid and rate, our revenues are mostly coming in 1Q and 4Q. So when I look forward to FY 2026, next financial year, by 4Q, the exclusivity will be gone. So practically, our revenue will be only in the first half or 1Q. So does that mean that FY 2026 over FY 2025, Revlimid would be slightly lower?
I don't know, my friend. I have no idea. Because you also know that our market share will go to one-third of the whole market. So I think that so that is one factor. What the price erosion next year is going to be is something that I can't judge. I don't have an answer to your question. I can only say, I think this year we should fare well. Next year also, we should do well. How well we'll do is I don't know. But overall, I would say that we will do well. 2027, 2028 is going to be a challenge because let us assume that the price erosion is more. Again, we don't know how the future holds. But obviously, we have to build other pipelines. Hopefully, the other products will start coming in. And other markets that we have invested in should open up.
We have the cash on books. Hopefully, we'll be able to do an acquisition. We can be some accurate revenue. I think that's how we have to look at it.
Understood. So suppose we assume that there is no significant change in price erosion. Of course, you get some volume share increase that you get. Would that first half be big enough to compensate for the 2x of Revlimid, assuming everything is still stable?
I just said I don't have an answer to that question. So it's very tough to predict what the price erosion will be in the future, right? So, how do you see, you're asking me questions which are very hypothetical, which only time will tell. I think we'll see how things go. We'll see how things go.
Understood. Okay. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Next question.
The next question is from the line of Hrishit Jhaveri from Pi Square Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Congratulations for the good set of numbers. I have two questions. First, can you give a highlight of the new investment into the eGenesis Biotech Company? What's our plan here, and?
I think you know, I think as our investors know, I think we do a lot of disruptive ideas which can reward very large amounts. If the ideas work, there's a large amount of reward. I think that's always been the focus of the company. We never think in terms of near-term. I think we always think about long-term, and I think all our ideas are five years, seven years, eight years away. But I think when they come, they come big. I think among those ideas, and this is one of the very interesting ideas that I saw, I think, as you see this, they have genetically modified a pig and looking at doing organ transplant primarily for kidney and liver. So they see a huge upside if this technology works. As you know, there's a lot of shortage of organs for kidney and liver.
They're able to demonstrate that it can be safely done. I think the upside is tremendous. So I think we like investing in destructive ideas and interesting ideas. And the investment is part of that philosophy. So if it works, the investment is worth multiple of what we invested. If it doesn't work, then it is what it is. So I think the idea is always go for those really large payoffs. And I think the idea in the balance sheet is that you have 10 ideas like this that work for the next 10 years. I think your next 10 years are sorted. So I think a few minutes ago, I think the other person was asking, "What are your next big ideas?" So I mean, right now we have Revlimid. In between, we'll have olaparib. Then we have liraglutide.
Maybe in the next few years, we might have olaparib. Then we have capmatinib and Adagrasib, which are large ideas. And then we throw in a couple of new R&D ideas like eGenesis investment. And so then you have a box of 10, 15 ideas. So even if you're able to pull off six or seven ideas in the next eight to 10 years, I think you've done a great job. But again, what I say has a high amount of risk. At the same time, the payoffs are very large. Too, there's a lot of volatility because you're going to have a year, then none of these ideas are coming through. Then you're going to have some dip of earnings. But you got to live with it.
But if you take a long-term view on these ideas, I think if they work, we have consistently delivered over the last few years. And as you're aware, we've delivered, for example, Copaxone or Tamiflu in the past, which have added very interesting set of earnings. So I think we just have to go we can only discuss what we're doing. And I think, yeah, as I said, there's always an element of volatility. Okay?
Understood, sir. And the second question, do we plan any major M&A coming here in the next year? We have a lot of cash on our books.
Absolutely. We can. I'm just looking for the right idea. I think we are very comfortable right now just spending money on R&D and these sort of startup ideas. I mean, so again, in addition to that, we also invested in a CAR-T company in Delhi as well. So I mean, these are the flavors of things that we're doing. Yeah. Coming back to what you said, we're always looking. I mean, we have enough cash on books, and so I think we're accruing more cash. So as of end of September, I think we have about INR 2,600 crores of cash, and so. And let's see how things go. I think it will only increase as the year ends, and let's see how things go. But I think we'll see.
Okay, sir. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Abdul Qadir Puranwala from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. So I just wanted to understand the performance of your subsidiaries for this particular quarter. I'm referring to your Brazilian-Canadian subsidiaries specifically.
All the subs together have done INR 120 crores of top line.
Okay. And how would be this against last year, same quarter?
Let me just check. I don't have that number, my friend. I don't have it on hand. I don't have it. I don't have it on hand, my friend. I think it's stable. That's all I can say.
Sure. No worries. It's a good performance.
Okay.
Yeah, and the second one is.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Dharmil Shah from Paras Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi sir. Thanks for allowing me to follow up. Sir, would you not like to revise our guidance? We are guiding for 20% PAT growth. And on TTM basis, we are already at 40% PAT growth. So does this mean that second half of this year is going to be a degrowth compared to the second half of previous year?
No, I think I've been conservative. I think we should do better. That's the guidance I gave early part of the year. I think we have done much better than we thought. I think I'll have more clarity on how the earnings are going to be. I think maybe our December numbers are there. So I don't want to comment right now. I think once we have more clarity, an issue will come. So I think give me some time on that.
Okay.
But you're right. I think we are going to probably do better than what we have guided, so.
Okay. And sir, we have a new filing.
How much better? I'll tell you in the next quarter, not in the next quarter.
Next quarter. Okay. Okay. No problem. You are doing a good job. Sir, we have a new filing in this quarter, Tabrecta. So can you please throw some light? You have indicated in your filing that we are eligible for 180 days of sole marketing at the time of launch. So what do you mean by that? And by when can we expect this launch? Any rough guesswork?
Again, the litigation outcome is going to drive it. I think product is about $110 million -$120 million. I don't collect the exact sales. And they're sole FTF, and this is going to be marketed by our entity in the U.S., So we get to keep 100% of the economics. So that's what makes it very interesting. And when will the market open up and all? It all depends on litigation clarity. I think it's too early stage at this time. I'll come back on that.
Okay. Okay. That's it from my side. Thank you and all the best for future quarters.
Okay. Thank you. Yeah. Thanks.
Thank you.
Thanks for the.
The next question is from the line of Nitin Agarwal from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks, Rajeev. In the past, we've talked about looking to scale up your emerging market business. So two things. I mean, what are your thoughts on maybe some of the portfolio products that you have for the U.S. right now, filings? I mean, which of these do you see an opportunity for some of these and all of these products in these other non-U.S. markets? And what other strategies do you have in mind for growing this part of the business?
I think that's the idea. I think whatever you do and develop in the U.S. market, we're extending to other markets. So for example, we did olaparib, and then we're extending that to Brazil and Canada, for example, and other ROW markets. So I think that's how the strategy works. Because whatever R&D money you spend, you extend it to as many countries as possible. So I think we're doing filings of these very good products that we have in multiple markets. The strategy is that you should file in at least seven to eight good countries, and then somewhere you'll get a jackpot from them. I think our core areas that we're focusing on, in addition to India, U.S., Canada, and Brazil, I think we're doing a lot of work in the Middle East now, especially Saudi. We have a partner in Boston Oncology.
And then we have our own subs now in the Philippines and Indonesia. So we're looking to extend it there as well. So I think this is where we see a lot of potential. And we also done some filings in China as well. So these are other markets that we're focusing on. But again, these are all partners. So I think there is a lot of potential. Absolutely.
Do you have any numbers in mind for how large you see this business probably becoming, this non-U.S. business over a period of time, maybe three to five years?
I don't have a number in mind at this time. But I think we are organically trying to build this business. But I think also, I think we're looking at an acquisition in these markets. And this time, we're looking at at least a couple of acquisitions in the ROW business. So it will be in combination with filings and an acquisition. We believe that these businesses should grow.
Okay. And lastly, on the corporate action, any color you will throw on that?
I think it's been a little disappointing. I think the sales we have done well overall. I think because last year was our first full year of operations with our core portfolio, we saw a little bit of returns and all. So we had to adjust for the returns. That's the reason why we had the sale was on the lower side. But I think we have launched two, three new products which are unique. So I think we expect that the business should do well. We're hoping that this business will break even starting from March '26 . And 27 March is our target of profitability. So a lot of these businesses that we're building, you will have cash lots in the near term.
But I think eventually, with time, as we were just speaking about a few minutes ago, I think once these businesses start making money, then the base business becomes stronger. And so I think what we're doing is using this opportunity that we have to build these businesses from scratch and settle them and then also spend money on R&D so that we can improve our pipeline for the future.
Okay. Thank you so much, Mr.
Thank you. Thank you. Next caller.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Abhishek from Oakl ane Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello. Hello.
Yeah. Go ahead, Abhishek.
Yeah. So first of all, congratulations on the great quarter. I just want to ask one question about the operating margins. So I am seeing that the operating margins have increased to 60% in the last two quarters. So do you think these margins are sustainable in the future?
Answer is, I answered that question a few minutes ago, but I'll just repeat the answer. I think it all depends on our portfolio and the pricing. If the pricing is good and we have a good product, it will work. And I think we've said that this year should be fine. 2026 also should be fine. But what the future holds, we don't know. And it all depends on how the market formation is and what the erosion is. So you could see a dip. But it's the nature of the beast.
Okay. Then what average margin we can expect this year and the next year?
We have to maintain the same margin that we have, I think, for this year and next year.
60%, right?
Yeah. Whatever we have right now, we'll maintain. But I think what future holds, again, it all depends on what products we have at that time, what is the nature of the portfolio, what's the nature of the price erosion, and all that stuff. So to answer your question, for now, I'd say yes. I think things will do well. But again, what the future holds is all contingent on the pipeline and on the price erosion.
Okay.
Is that?
Thank you.
Answer your question. Yeah. Okay. I thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rohit from ithought PMS . Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning. Am I audible?
Yeah. Please go ahead, Rajeev.
Yeah. Good morning, sir. So just I mean, you mentioned to a previous participant in terms of the way you think about the business, taking sort of these sort of moonshots and some of them will pay out. So in that context, I wanted to get your sense on some of the NCEs that we have. And any update on the NRC-2694 that we have? Also, if you can share. I think it was in phase II trial. So if you can answer these two questions. I mean, for the broader context, I mean, do you see, yeah, the NCE portfolio as a part of that overall, the moonshot that you're talking about? And do you consider that, or it's just too early to say? And specifically on this NCE, actually. Yeah.
Yeah. Certainly. I mean, this is not a moonshot. It's just like a regenerative investment. I think unless it's 2694, there's a clinical trial going on. We're doing the trial in the U.S. at this time. It is for a particular late-stage head and neck cancer indication. It's an early stage. That's why we're not talking much about it. I think we'll give an update as things go along. It comes back to the same point that I made a few minutes ago. I think our generic filings are moonshot is a little harsh word, I would believe. I think we have some there's some method to the madness. It is not completely moonshot. But as I said, I mean, you have two, three ideas in drug discovery, and then you have five, six ideas with your Para IVs, and then you have two, three ideas in oligos.
Between all these 10 ideas, you will get, I mean, you don't want to be wrong about every product every time. You want to get something right. And I think the idea here is that you build up all these 10 - 15 businesses and, sorry, 10 - 15 products. And even if you get seven or eight right over a period of decade, I think you'll have done a great job. If you look at our profitability, I mean, I can be a little immodest and tell you that our margins or our profitability is definitely in the top 10 pharma companies in India. But again, what you need to live with as an investor is probably the volatility. I think the challenge that we face in our business is that we are not consistent.
I mean, we'll have three, four good years, and we'll have two years of dip, and again, then we'll have three good years again, but I think that's the nature of the risk that we take, and I think hopefully, we build enough of the pipeline with the R&D that we have that we're able to deliver more consistently. I mean, that's what we're trying to do. In my personal view, again, this is a minority view, but this is my personal view that a me-too commodity generic business is not going to make money, and the model that we are doing as in pharma, where you have everybody filing everything and covering every geography, to expect earnings growth on that portfolio, it's extremely difficult.
I believe that unless you pursue what we are pursuing, and obviously, you can do it at different degrees of what do you call depth on how you allocate your capital, I don't think you'll ever have earnings growth. I think you can. I'll again challenge you the other way. I think if you look at most Indian pharma today, we remove the jackpots, those two, three jackpots or whatever, the earnings growth is minimal. There's no earnings growth. In fact, it's degrowth. That's the nature of the industry because the industry is very competitive. Two, nobody has debt. So everybody's very aggressive, and everybody makes cash flows. So the market is, I mean, there's very little margin left. So this is the structure of the business, and I believe that this is the only way the future growth is. Can I answer your question, Nitin Agarwal?
No, no. It does. I mean, I share what you said. And I mean, of course, you know it much better than any of us here. So I respect your view. I think, sir, just the point on our volatility, I think, I mean, others may also fall. But I think given their portfolio and given their breadth of the portfolio, I think the fall is still kind of a red flag. And I think that's where we are a bit sort of found wanting at this stage of our evolution. So I mean, so I mean, that is probably what we all are sort of asking in different ways. So yeah, that's it.
See, again, you don't want to avoid the elephant in the room. I mean, it is what it is. I mean, you can't come and say, "You know what? I should have this much base business and all." You can't create a business that you don't have. You know what I mean? It takes time, and it has its own journey, right? And from the size of the firm that we have grown, we have grown to the size that we have because of the disruptions that we've done. And so it is what it is. I mean, hopefully, I think over a period of time with the cash that we have and with the R&D spend that we'll have, we'll be able to bring that little more stability. But again, it comes back to the original point. You will not have growth unless you do disruptive products.
But again, I'll reemphasize again. And if you remove the big products, the niche products, there's no profit growth in the business. I think that's the nature of the industry today.
Sir, may I ask one more question? I don't know if you can ask one more question?
Yeah. Yeah. Please come through. Yeah.
I mean, just on this point on your base profitability, I mean, would you want to sort of share what is that base profitability today? I know you mentioned that we are investing a lot. But I'm sure you are also looking at, I mean, instead of the investment that we are doing in R&D, if we are to look at ex-government or however you want to put it, what's your base profitability today? I mean, you want to sort of share anything on that? And how do you see this?
I can't answer that question because you're asking me what my earnings are going to be two years, three years, Donald. I have no idea. I mean, it all depends on what products you have. I think the whole base profitability concept you need to remove, I think it's a wrong notion that people have. You are as good as what products you have. And what product you have that year is what's going to drive your earnings. And every year, you need to come up with something new. There's nothing like it's not a cement or a steel business that you'll have certain output that you'll get, and there's no the business is constant innovation. You need to have new products because whatever you have right now will just vanish. If you just look at your own balance sheet, I mean, I can challenge you on any balance sheet.
If you look at your own core portfolio, whatever you have on your base, it goes away 30%-40% of it goes away in five years. So if you ask me, it's a very, I don't think it's a correct question. I think you need to judge a person on the pipeline, not on the base. Base means nothing. Base erodes continuously, especially in the export business. It's brutal. It just erodes away. You just have to keep coming up with new ideas. Okay. Next caller. Yeah. Thank you.
Thanks. Thanks. Thanks, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ankit Gupta from Bamboo Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity and congratulations for the good segment. So my question was on the semaglutide, Ozempic, and the Wegovy. So are we done with all the litigations on the Ozempic side for both device as well as API?
I think one product we're done with all the litigation. Other products we're not. Of one we're settled, one we're not.
Wegovy is pending for the weight loss indication. Wegovy and.
Ozempic is pending and that's settled.
But Ozempic is all settled for both API as well as device?
I think that's one product we're settled and one we're not settled. That's it.
Okay. So I think most likely diabetes would be settled is what I can assume.
I think diabetes is settled. I think the weight loss is all settled. Yeah.
Sure. And any timeline for that?
No, my friend. I cannot be found to answer that question.
Sure. Sure. Thank you. Thank you very much for all the questions.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Next caller, please.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Bhagwat from Prosperity Wealth Management Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. Congrats for the very good quarter results. So you mentioned about the mid-term margin to the previous participant. In fact, my question was on the revenue. So if possible, could you please guide us the revenue growth, say, for the mid-term, next two to three years?
Next two to two?
Two to three years in the mid-term.
I can't think so far, my friend. There's so many moving parts. You can't make that judgment. I'll tell you for next quarter. I can tell you for this year, and maybe in the end of the year, when the year starts for the following year, I think we'll tell you about the following year, so there's so many moving parts, and it's very hard to judge. I will not give guidance. Sorry.
Okay. Sorry. I understand. Thank you so much.
Okay. Okay.
Thank you.
Okay. Next caller, please.
The next question is from the line of Manthan Rastogi from Alpha W ealth. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. My question is, what we are doing on growing our domestic business? Because it has been on a baseline for a couple of quarters now.
I think it's been stable. Unfortunately, we've not grown. I think we have a good pipeline coming up in the next 12 months. We have a lot of three, four big launches. And obviously, semaglutide is one of the biggest launches we have in it. So I think my expectation is that semaglutide should really jump-start this business. That's probably the biggest launch we have. But we also have some smaller launches. So if you take a two- to three-year perspective, I think the business should do well. We expect the business to compound at 15%-20%. I know the numbers look flat right now, but I think if we take it, be patient, I think in two, three years. Again, it comes back to what I was saying. It's all about the pipeline. You'll only get growth if you have a good product.
If you don't have a product launch, there's no growth in the business. And it's true in domestic also. And it's true for export market. So that's how it works. Without pipeline, you have nothing. And you need to have pipeline where you're backward integrated, doing your own manufacturing. Only then you have margin. Otherwise, there's no margin also. So I think the key here is that you need a good pipeline which allows you to sustain growth, and which I believe we have. Just that you just have to wait until it actually comes. So that's a patience game you have to play.
Yeah. Got it. Just one more question. Are you facing any issues from Canada subsequently with India, Canada, like?
Oh, because of the diplomatic?
Yeah. Yeah. Diplomatic issues. Yeah.
Oh, no. No, not in this time. Not in this time. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of.
Next caller, please.
Yes, sir. The next question is from the line of Rajesh Jain from RK Capital. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. I have two questions. So the first question is, what could be the impact of the BIOSECURE Act on Natco Pharma's business in your assessment?
As of now, no. Because the biopharma portfolio is not there. We don't have biopharma portfolio in our products. So I don't see much impact. But again, it's more now Trump has come. So we have to see what policies he'll adopt and what disruption that will cause in the generic business. We don't know. So we have to be cautious about what's going to happen. But as of now, specific to that act, no. But what the future holds, I don't know. We'll see how things play out.
Okay. The second question is, how is your agro business doing? And what is the outlook for FY 2026 specifically on the agro side?
I think we believe right now, it's doing okay. We're still losing money. I think we lose, I think, what if you take out all the one-time write-offs and all, I think we're losing about INR 40-INR 50 crores a year. I think the objective first is that by 26 March, we want to break even. I think that is the internal objective that we're given the group. So we expect that it will break even. I think that's to answer your question, yes. I think 26 March is our target that we should break even in that business.
Okay. Thank you.
Okay. That's it. Next caller, please.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ankit Minocha from Adezi Ventures Family Office. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. So you were talking to a previous participant about maintenance of the margin in FY 2026 as well. Are you assuming any pricing erosion in revenue when you say that, or it depends on the pricing erosion if you're able to maintain that?
I don't know what the answer to that question is. What I've said is that we have nearly one-third share, and we'll see how the erosion is. Overall, we are expecting that we should do all right. But again, we'll have more clarity on this once we speak. We'll have clarity next year, I think, once we post March earnings. I think we'll have clarity on how the following year is going to be. But yeah, we'll see how things go. Yeah. It's very hard to judge the market. It's all linked with the market erosion and all, which is not in our control, and hard to judge.
Sure. Sure. Thank you so much for that. And secondly, just a general understanding about the industry, the generics industry in the U.S. I mean, last year was good in terms of the pricing environment. But are we seeing any acceleration of pricing erosion in the U.S. markets now starting to come in this year, or do you feel the pricing environment is still pretty reasonable?
I think overall, the business, I think if you have a good portfolio and better portfolio, I think you do reasonably well. I think that's one. The second thing is you need to have good pipeline, which are first-wave generics, which gives you a good amount of profitability. I think these are two ways that you actually make money in this business. But I think your new pipeline is what drives your profitability. Without that, I don't think you have that push in the earnings. But these two things are required. I think that's how it works.
Great. Thank you. And I wish you the best. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Jash from Dalal & Broacha Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the follow-up, sir, so just a broader question. By FY 2026, we will have about $400 million -$500 million of cash potentially, so what is the potential size of acquisition we're looking at in broad color?
Good question. I don't know. We're looking at different levels of transactions. I mean, if the size is bigger, then we can use the cash and maybe the combination of maybe a debt and then maybe some equity too. It all depends. I mean, we're looking at one transaction, which is about $300 million. We're looking at one transaction, which is about $5 million -$6 million. So I mean, you get different types of transactions. But what you consummate in the end is all it depends on if we're able to agree on the price and the diligence goes well. So we're open to any size of transaction. But I think if you want a range, this is that range. But again, we have not closed anything, so it's very difficult to say that this is going to happen.
So we don't have. It's very hard to judge. But we're looking at different kinds of transactions because it's something that a lot because of the cash that we have allows us more flexibility to do something large. So that is clear.
Okay. And anything on the table right now?
Sorry. Say that again.
Anything on the table right now?
Any?
Anything on the table right now?
We're looking at different transactions. We're not closing anything at this time.
Okay. Perfect. Thank you, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Yeah. Next caller.
The next question is from the line of Rahul Chaudhary, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. Am I audible?
Yes, sir. Hello.
Yes, sir. Just picking up on the last caller. So when you said $300 million, you mean $300 million range?
Yes.
Oh, that's good. Good. Sir, I was just comparing how we did the Revlimid deal. Is it fair to assume that the Ozempic and Wegovy in the U.S. is losing exclusivity in 2031? As of now, the information public domain?
There are multiple patents. I think there's some patents in 2031, there's some in 2033, and some in 2034. I don't recollect the dates. Yeah. But they're over 50%. I think we have a lot of.
Okay. So we can't do a dedicated guess and say in four years how we did Revlimid. They should also start doing it. All right, sir. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Okay. I'll take one last question.
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Ankit Gupta from Bamboo Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity, I think. Sir, my question was again on the Ozempic side. So I think because of the device involvement, if there is any difference in the device with respect to innovators, we might have to carry on human factors studies . So do you see any risk in that because it's a big product and a lot of supply constraints are there, and then they're big for us? So just wanted to ask, is there any human factors studies , any risk in human factors studies if there is any difference with the?
I can't discuss about the regulatory review questions and all that.
I don't know your confidence of what?
I can say that we'll do what it takes to get it approved. I think our partner, Mylan, is handling the regulatory aspect of this, and they've gone over what it takes to get this approved.
Okay, and you remain confident?
Yeah. We've addressed the right partner, and they've brought a lot of complex indications approved. I think we're in good hands, and I think we'll get it done. Yeah.
Okay. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Thank you.
Okay.
Let me conclude, please. Thank you.
Sure. Thank you, sir. Would you like to add any closing remarks?
No. Nothing. Thanks. Thanks for your interest, and thanks for the call.
Yeah. Thank you all. Again, the transcripts, once it's available, it'll be uploaded to the website. Thank you all, and have a good day.
Thank you to the management team. Ladies and gentlemen all, we are from Batlivala & Karani Securities India Private Limited. That concludes this conference call. We thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.