Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Pharma Q3 and 9 Months FY25 Earnings Conference Call, hosted by Batlivala and Karani curities India Pvt. Ltd. As a reminder, all participants' lines will be in listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes.
Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Hrishikesh Patole from Batlivala and Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. On behalf of BNK Securities, I welcome you all to the Q3 FY25 Earnings Conference Call of NATCO Pharma. Hope everyone is in good health and doing well. On behalf of NATCO today, we have with us Mr. Rajeev Nannapaneni, Director and CEO, Mr. Rajesh Chebiyam, Executive Vice President, Crop Health Sciences. I now hand over the call to Rajesh for the management's opening remarks, post which we'll open the session for Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Yeah, thank you, Hrishikesh. Good morning and welcome, everyone, to NATCO's conference call discussing our earnings results for the Q3 of FY25, which ended December 31, 2024. During the call, we may be making certain forward-looking statements or statements about future events, and anything said on this call which reflects our outlook for the future must be reviewed in conjunction with the risks that the company faces.
I'd like to state that the material of the call, except for the participant questions, is the property of NATCO and cannot be recorded or rebroadcast without NATCO's express written permission. So we'll begin with the results highlight and then interact with Q&A session. I hope all of you have received the press release and financials we just sent yesterday. These are also available on our website.
The NATCO recorded consolidated total revenue of INR 651.1 crore for the Q3 of FY25 that ended December 31, 2024, as against INR 795.6 crores for the same period last year. Net profit for the period on a consolidated basis was INR 132.4 crores, as against INR 212.7 crores same period last year. During the quarter, the contribution from the export formulation business was lower. However, the company expects healthy growth of business in the ensuing quarters. Thank you all. The results are all communicated. Now we'll take the Q&A.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Saumil Shah from Paras Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Good morning. So we have this other income of INR 76 crores in this quarter. So what is that for? And if this was not there, we would have ended up doing a loss in this quarter.
No. Other income is primarily coming from interest income from the deposits that we have, and then we had a one-time gain from the sale of land, which was announced earlier, so we had a INR 90 crore one-time gain.
From sale of land?
So that was, sorry?
From sale of land, INR 90 crore you said?
We had a pre-tax gain, yes. So the other income primarily consists. The rest of the stuff is part of the business. INR 90 crore came from the sale of land. From INR 90 crore gain, pre-tax gain we have from sale of land.
Okay. Okay. And why, I mean, the performance for this quarter was so weak this time?
We had practically no development at that moment. So I think completely there's no development this quarter. I think that's one of the biggest reasons why there's a weakness in the quarter. And we also had a lot of R&D expenses, which were continuing from the previous quarter.
So I think that's the reason why there's a substantial R&D expense that is there in the books. And a lot of these projects that you start, you can't stop. And based on your cash flow, there's been a mismatch between your cash flow and the actual expenses. I think that's the reason why it's a little weak. It's a soft quarter. I mean, there's no two ways about it. But again, we'll get a new allocation next year. I think, as you're aware, we'll get almost one-third allocation of the total market as per our settlement. And that will start kicking in the next quarter. I think we're confident that we'll do very well in the coming quarters. But this is an exceptional quarter.
Correct. Correct. And so for this current quarter, can we expect, I mean, it would be better than the Q4 of the previous year for this Q4, March?
It all depends on, yeah, as I said, we've been allocated nearly one-third quantity. So it's all how it's distributed. But yes, yeah, I think I'm confident that we should do well.
Better than the Q4 of previous year?
I don't want to say that, my friend. Okay. Let the numbers come. We'll see. I think it all depends on how much we stock and sell. But I can tell you the next few quarters will be good. .
Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Arun Malhotra from CapGrow Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for taking the question. A couple of things. One is, Revlimid, can you throw some light on volume, market share currently we have?
Right now, we don't have any quantity, my friend. That's why there's no sale in the last quarter. So we'll get one-third for next year. I think that's as per the settlement.
That will start from the next quarter, sir?
Yeah, this quarter. This quarter.
This quarter, yeah. Sorry. And second, can you also throw some light on the settlement, especially on the GLP-1 opportunity? I know we are tied up with Mylan and we have settled with NOAA. But what is the total opportunity size for us and where are we? Is there any potential launch possible in 2026 in India?
I think the settlement date is confidential. It cannot be disclosed. It will happen. I mean, we can't talk about the launch, but it is not, it's not going to happen now, that's for sure. I think when it grows into the launch, we'll speak about it. The opportunity, I mean, we have settled one product. We didn't settle the other product. I think one Ozempic was settled.
I think the weight loss one, I don't think, I think the diabetes one, we have settled. I think the weight loss, we have not settled. So one settlement. The opportunity, I mean, I think you know that opportunity, it is a pretty good opportunity. Again, I don't want to start putting numbers and all. I think it's a pretty good opportunity for the company. I will limit myself at this.
Sure. And what I failed to understand was, can there be a potential launch between U.S. and India? Can it be on two different dates? Because patent expires in 2031, 2032 in the U.S.
India launch, as you're aware, my friend. I think subject to regulatory clearances and other issues, I think March 26 is the India launch. So I think India launch will happen next year, subject to regulatory approval and any other issues to be resolved. So US launch, I mean, is a date which is. It's a confidential date. I can't answer that question directly. But yeah, it's, as I said, I think in the near term, we'll look forward for the India launch.
Sure. And just to confirm, we will have the first six months exclusivity in this?
It will not be determined right now. We have a first-to-file. It will be determined at a later time, not at this time.
Okay. And also, one more product you have highlighted in this quarter is Risdiplam, which is a $3 billion and growing at a much higher rate. Could you also throw some light on where we are in that and when do you
We are first to file on that. And I think we are shared FTF. I think there are two filers on day one. So I think this year, we are working with Sun Pharma on this one. So it's a shared profits on this one. So this will be, I mean, again, litigation is just early stage at this time.
Sure. And also, the cash lying on the books, potential use of it. You have been mentioning about the acquisitions in the past. But any headway there, any leads, or any comments you would like to make?
We are working on it. We're working on it. As of now, we have—as of December 31st, we have 3,264 crores of cash and shares liquidated investments. And we have about 241 crores of debt. So net cash would be about $3,000. Yeah. So that's where we are.
And any leads on?
Regarding use of it, we're looking at acquisition. As of now, it's just lying as cash.
All right. Thank you.
Next call, please. Yeah. We'll give an opportunity to someone else.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Chetan Doshi from Tulsi Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, Rajesh. One question is that we are cash surplus. How come there is this finance cost coming every quarter? And last time, the guidance given for the current quarter was somewhat similar to the performance what we'll be doing in 23 December. But this is where we...
I'll answer both your questions. Your first question is the guidance, and second question is what's the other one? What was that?
Other one is finance cost. When we are cash surplus, how come?
Yeah, I'll answer both the questions one at a time. First is we thought that there'll be some quantity in December. Most of the quantity was sold off in September. And I just said for the chargebacks, we didn't have any money this quarter. So essentially, we had no sale. But we did better last quarter s o I think that's what happened. I think we can make an estimate, my friend. I can't. We thought that we did, but we didn't think we could do it this week. But it is what it is.
Sorry to interrupt, Rajeev, but Concall was in the month after the results of September. And that time, you only told that, "Yes, some sale will come in this quarter." So we'll definitely do better than the December 2023 quarter. That was your—
That's what I thought, my friend. And I understand. But after hearing from our partner, they said that we had a chargeback and all the quantity was sold, it's not too much.
sorry to interrupt, but there is no backup plan from the company that suppose this product doesn't come in, then the other product has to be contemplated.
There's no backup plans, my friend. See, I think that question is wrong. I think we are here to state what the present financial position is. You can't have backup plans for revenue. You have what you have. And what you don't have, you don't have. I don't think that question is right. What you have is what you have w hat you book is what you book w hat you don't have, you just say that you don't have. That's how business works.
But Crop Health Sciences, this Crop Health Sciences.
My friend, I will not answer that question the way you—I don't like the way you're asking that question. It is what you have sold, you sold. And what you don't have, you don't have. You have to accept it. That's it.
And about—
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Viraj Mahadevia from MoneyGrow India. Please go ahead.
Hi, Rajeev. Very quick question. Just for clarification, just so I understand the Revlimid sales, you mentioned, Rajeev, that in Q4, sorry, in December quarter, you had moved up your quota. So does that mean you had front-ended sales in the early part of the year based on the allocation for the calendar year?
Basically, all this allocation that we had, we have sold it off by September end. We didn't have any further allocation. I think all of it was sold, and there's nothing left.
I think that's... Understood. And this year, you will get a fresh allocation, which is a higher number, from my understanding?
Yes. It will be about one-third of the—
Understood. And will this year be more evenly spread through the year, or you can't comment on that?
I don't want to answer that question. See, it's such a tricky question because what they sell is what they sell, right? So we will recognize income based on what we get. And you have to live with the volatility t hat's the nature of the business.
Understood. No, no. Absolutely.
That's how it works.
No, no. I fully appreciate that. I understand the question.
Next question. Yeah.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Darshil from Finterest Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you. My question has already answered. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Raghav from Rajitha Pharma. Please go ahead.
Hello.
Yeah. Please go ahead.
So what will be the quarter four, sir? How we can expect the results for quarter four?
As I said, we'll get one-third allocation of the total market, and I think some portion will be sold in Q1. I think we'll have clarity from Teva, I think, once. We'll discuss this when we get the Q4 numbers, and I think at this time.
Recently, we have got another two approvals now.
Sorry, my friend?
Recently, we have got another two approvals on ANDA.
Yeah. We had two more approvals. Yes. We had approval on Everolimus.
With Lupin and one with...
Say that again, my friend. Say that.
You have two more approvals, ANDA. One with Lupin and one with your marketing partner, Lupin, and one with some other company.
We have reckoned it. Yeah. This Everolimus product, TOF has got launched. And Bosutinib. And Bosutinib, the launch date is not announced yet. We'll announce at the time of the launch i t's bound by confidentiality a nd Everolimus got launched. I think the two generics on that product. It's all that we have to do.
So that will start from quarter four or quarter one of next year?
No. It launched this quarter. You'll see the benefit of that launch in Q4 of this year.
ANDA. Okay, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, you may press star and one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Gagan from ASK Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning. I hope I'm audible. My first question is, Rajeev, you indicated that the R&D expenditure this quarter is elevated from your steady state or normal run rate. Can you enumerate, I mean, to whatever degree possible, what would be as a percentage of sales and normal R&D run rate and what has been the case in Q3?
Basically, what happens is you are spending probably about 8%-10% of our revenue as R&D, right, so when your quarter is soft, basically what happens is the expenditure that you start doesn't stop, isn't it? Basically, what you're doing, you're making, let's say, a certain amount of surplus, so based on that surplus, you say that I'm going to spend this much money.
But because the quarter is soft, basically what happens is the expenditure seems large relative to revenue of that particular quarter. But you don't stop spending something just because you're going to have a soft quarter, right? That's the reason why you have a mismatch in the earnings, and then you have that, but typically, it's about 7%-8% of our net sales.
Okay. Right. And how should we think of your India business and the EM? Perhaps if one takes a three-year view, how are you strategizing for these pieces?
I think we have some good launches. So I think one big launch, I think, has been spoken about Semaglutide. Semaglutide is a very big launch. So we're expecting that it will go well, subject to regulatory approval and clearance. Another launch, which is a very interesting launch, is Risdiplam in India w e have litigated in Delhi High Court t he judge has resolved the matter.
And hopefully, we have a positive verdict. We can launch that as well. So I think that's the product that we're looking at. We are the first gen to come back w e're hoping that we'll be the first gen to come back as well. So I think we have some very smart launches i think if they come through, I think the domestics should do extremely well. But again, it's all very product-determined i think these two will be the big ones in the next quarter.
Okay. The final one from my side on Semaglutide. Can you elaborate? a little more on specifically in India, are you going in for both the injectable and oral solid? And in context of the purchasing power of the Indian consumer, how do you see these two, oral and injectable, evolving over a period of time. And are you backward integrated in SEMA? So these are the questions on the Semaglutide.
SEMA, I think we've answered that. I think we're outsourced API. Second is we're focusing at this time only on the injectable. Oral, we're not looking at it this time w e'll look at it maybe later b ut as of now, no. Injectable is what we're looking at.
Okay. And Canada, you will be there on the first wave?
At this time, we don't want to discuss about our export strategy. I think Viatris is our partner o nce we have clarity, I think we'll discuss.
All right. Yeah. Thanks. Thanks for taking my questions. I'll get back in the queue.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Prashant Nair from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. My question was very, I mean, similar.
Sir, I would request you to please use your handset.
Yeah. Just give me a minute. Is this better?
Yes, sir.
Yeah. Hi. Yeah. Thanks. So my question was similar, I mean, on the R&D spend part. I get what you mentioned. Would you be able to share what your, say, EBITDA margin was on a pre-R&D basis? I'm just trying to use this quarter to get some sense of how your margins could look on an extended limit basis. So that was the objective.
I mean, I don't want to get into that sort of detail i think, I mean, everybody keeps asking me this question. I think I've answered this question in the past, but let me answer it in a very general way. I think R&D expenditure is based on the cash flow that you're going to have, right? So if you have good cash flow, you spend more money on R&D. If you have less cash flow, then you spend less money on R&D, or you try to do a partnership deal so that you can offset some of the R&D expenditure.
So I think you're aware, I mean, we believe that this year we'll probably end up with about INR 1,800-2,000 crore. That's our expectation. I think we're still hopeful that we'll meet the guidance. Even next year, I think our expectation is that we'll be able to do that. And then the question is, everybody keeps asking me this question is, what is it after 26 months, right? So what is it that we're going to have? I think we have spoken, and I think generally, I think we have said that based on how we have other products that are coming in in 26, 27.
We're also expecting that the emerging markets should do well. And we expect that our Crop Sciences, which is losing money, should improve. And so overall, we should probably see a drop. I mean, I think that's the elephant in the room. I think you have to accept that earnings will drop in 27 March. How much will it drop? I think that's the question I'm directly indicating.
So it all depends on how you moderate your R&D expenditure and what kind of stuff that you are going to do. But you should expect, I mean, it's hard to see. I mean, I don't want to put a number to it, but you should expect a drop, a significant drop. But whether it'll end at 50%, 60%, I mean, it all depends on how that year goes b ut you're asking me to predict my 27 March numbers, which I think is a little difficult i think we'll have more clarity on it from here for now. But sitting today, I would believe that, yes, I think that's the amount of drop that you should probably prepare for.
Hello. Fair enough. Yeah. Hello?
Yes, sir.
Go ahead. No, no. So then, yeah, just one additional clarification y ou mentioned earlier 8%-10%. That's on annual revenue, right, that you mentioned that you have spending?
Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. Absolutely. Yeah.
Okay. All right. Got it. Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Hrishit Jhaveri from PI Square Investments. Please go ahead.
Good morning, sir. So I just had a clarification about the Revlimid. We are expecting one-third quantity this year. Can you give a ballpark market total size out of which we'll get the one-third share?
What is the ballpark size of the market you're saying?
Yes. Out of which we'll get the one-third of what?
One-third of. I'm sorry i didn't understand what you're saying.
The total quantity which will. Hello.
I couldn't catch your question, my friend. Could you repeat that again, please?
The total quantity out of which the one-third quantity which we will get to do business this year correct, in Revlimid?
It's one-third the size of the market, my friend. That's all I can say. Is that what you're looking for?
Yeah, but what would be your view on the total market size? Any number there?
Market size? Then you're asking me to estimate the price erosion. I can't do that, my friend i can't. I can say one-third of the total volume i think that's all I can tell you.
Okay, sir. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you.
Yeah. Sorry. Next, sir.
The next question is from the line of Dixit Doshi from Whitestone Financial Advisors Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Hello. Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. A couple of questions. Firstly, you mentioned that obviously post FY26, we will see some drop in the revenue because of the Revlimid. But other than the Semaglutide in India, which are the bigger launches you are expecting? And my second question is regarding the Olaparib timeline, if you can broadly speak about that.
At this time, we're trying to pilot in multiple markets. At this time, it's very premature to come back with a timeline on Olaparib. Semaglutide India, we already spoke to, and I think Risdiplam, we've spoken about India subject to how patent litigation goes.
These are the near-term triggers for India, and export business, I think, is doing very well. I think Brazil and Canada were expecting a lot of approvals in our oncology portfolio, so I think we expect some good launches there, and we're doing reasonably well now in the Middle East as well, so overall, our RoW business is doing reasonably well, and I think that will probably drive the base business post 2026.
Olaparib, can it come in FY27, or it is difficult to get at this point?
It depends on which market, my friend. Some markets are opening early. Some markets have litigation, so it's tough to judge.
In terms of U.S.?
I can't answer that question i t's a Para IV litigation. I can't answer that question.
Okay. Okay. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Priyansh Dalmia from Oculus Capital. Please go ahead. Mr. Priyansh, I would request you to unmute your line and speak, please. Due to no response from the current participant, we will move on to the next participant. The next question is from the line of Badri Vishal Bajaj from Bajaj Shares and Securities. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for the opportunity.
Morning. Yeah.
Sir, I have specific questions on sequential earning of segment-wise revenue in export of formulation products. The basic reason I wanted to know that it has fallen below 25% if you take Q2 to Q3 of 2025. So reason for this sudden fall, please enlighten us, sir. Thank you.
Because there's no revenue element, my friend. I think that's the simple answer. There's absolutely no revenue element t hat's the reason why there's a fall. That's a big product for us, and it's not.
Maybe it is very significant on our earnings also. That is what is it the only reason or any other?
That is the only reason. That's absolutely right. Right on the money.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Good day.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Praharsh Rai from Arjav Partners. Please go ahead.
Any timeline you have for the launch of Semaglutide? Sorry, Semaglutide?
Which market you're saying?
Indian market.
So U.S. you're saying, or you're thinking?
India. India.
India, I think our expectation is March 26, subject to regulatory approval and settlement of other issues. I think.
Very good. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nirali Shah from Ashika Institutional Equities. Please go ahead. Ms. Nirali, I would request you to unmute your line and speak, please. Due to no response from the current participant, we will move on to the next participant. The next follow-up question is from the line of Gagan from ASK Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for taking the follow-up. So in US, beyond Revlimid, you have a good pipeline of 24 FTFs, if I, I mean, have it correctly from your presentation. Can you, I mean, to whatever degree you're comfortable, can you share on the timeline of the launches and what would be the key ones, perhaps with a 3- to 5-year timeframe? And what could possibly be a ballpark revenue outcome from these?
That's a tough one. But what I'll do is I'll tell you by size what are the biggest ones that we have. So if you take the next, I mean, obviously, all of them will play out over the next seven to 10 years. I mean, all of them will play out over the next 10 years but. You want to start, I mean, this year we have Revlimid. And then we have Wegovy and Ozempic whenever that happens.
But that's the next big one. And then we have Olaparib. That's a very big one. Then we have Ibrutinib, where we are sole FTF. Then we have Adapitinib, which is where we are sole FTF. The ones which are shared as sole FTFs are probably the most valuable ones.
And I think that's what I would look at. And the ones that I mentioned, probably in terms of economic value, are probably the biggest ones. And a mid-level value would be like Carfilzomib 10 milligram and Trifluridine. So I think these are medium level. And Bosentan will be also medium level b ut I think the ones I mentioned earlier are probably the bigger ones. Revenue estimations and all, it's tough to judge all these things at this time. But I think in terms of upsides, these are the big ones.
I mean, would it be safe to say that if we keep Revlimid aside for a moment, on the base business, these products can give you a handsome growth?
When they happen, yes. Yes. Yes. They should be. When they happen, yes.
Yeah. All right. And second one on Semaglutide, India, I mean, how do you see I mean, what sort of scale do you see the market getting in the first year and then over perhaps three to five years? And how does it impact perhaps the other treatment lines in diabetes in the market currently?
Honestly, I don't know. I think let the approval come in i think once we get the approval and when we launch and we'll see how once the market forms, I think we'll be able to make judgments about everything that you said. Looks like it's getting multiple indications and approvals in different settings. I think it's a very exciting molecule. Honestly, I don't know, my friend. I think once we launch and once the market forms, I think we can give you more color on that question.
Okay. I think the innovators - can I take one more, or would you rather that I get back to this here?
Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. So the innovators have also expressed their interest in launching in the Indian market, and perhaps they also want to preempt some of the other companies and establish themselves. Do you see that in any way detrimental to the prospects of NATCO or some of the other peers?
I think the innovator will obviously have his share. I think you can't deny that. But obviously, GenBix also played a very strong role because of the affordability element. For the record, my friend, the innovator has not launched the injectable product yet in India. I've not seen the product in India.
Right.
They only launched the oral, which is used. But I think most of the market is the injectable. So as of now, we've not seen the market because he has so much demand elsewhere that he has not supplied in our part of the world. Okay?
Right. Thank you, sir. Thank you. I'll get back to the Q.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next follow-up question is from the line of Saumil Shah from Paras Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi thanks for the follow-up. Sir, as you mentioned, we have about INR 3,000 crores of cash. And probably by next year's end, we would end up at around INR 5,000 crores or maybe around that. So why don't we—I mean, if we are not getting any options of acquisitions, why don't we do a buyback and reward our shareholders, and maybe even promoters can participate?
Good question. I don't have an answer to that question either. We are looking at the capital acquisition. I think my present position is that we'll just look at an acquisition i have not thought of it yet. At this time, I don't have an answer.
Okay. Because one more reason is.
My stated position is that.
Okay. No, these are just my views. One more reason doing a buyback, I mean, maybe next year when our profits go down, okay, by doing a buyback, we are reducing our equity s o at least our EPS hit won't be so much. I mean, just my views.
Of course. You know how I've been having a view. I personally feel, yeah, we'll make that call then, my friend i don't want to make that call today g ive us some time. I'm still looking, and I believe we'll be able to do some transactions. So we'll make that call. I think if it is what you just said, I mean, that we're unable to do an acquisition, then yeah, certainly, I think that is the way forward. But for now, I think the idea is that we'll use this money for acquisition.
Correct. Correct. And one of the previous.
I want to look at India too.
And one of the previous participants had asked about the interest cost. I think that question was unanswered. So maybe we have some cash.
I'll answer that. I'll tell you a simple math. It's INR 200 crores of debt that we have. About INR 100 crores is what you call Foreign Bill discounting. INR 100 crores are tax payments that we make for the advance tax. So basically, what happens is the borrowing cost of this money is around 6%. And the deposits are giving us 8%. So it doesn't make sense to break an 8% deposit and--
Which you can borrow at 6%. The nature of this money is short-term debt. It's usually payable in 60-90 days. And generally, we get cash flow which pays off this debt. So that's the reason why we borrow b ut it's not a large amount. It's not. At any given time, it's not more than 200 crores. That's the reason why we borrow.
Okay. Okay. That's it from my side.
Thank you.
Okay.
The next follow-up question is from the line of Chetan Doshi from Tulsi Capital. Please go ahead.
One thing, Rajeev. If this year we are going to make record profits, but our interim dividend is very, very less, 1.25 or 1.5. Is there any—are you waiting for much more profits to distribute to the shareholders? On a lighter note, please.
Again, I'll give you my stated position. We believe that we'll do an acquisition. I want to preserve the cash for the acquisition. I don't want to give it off. We're giving a modest dividend i 'm aware of that. But I'm waiting for an acquisition. So that's the reason why I don't want to use the cash on books. So I'm holding on.
Can you show some color on the Crop Science business, how it is performing?
It's doing about INR 15-16 crores a quarter. I think it's still losing money. But we believe, I think next year, we should be able to break even. I think that's the objective. So I think we'll probably settle around, I think, INR 130-140 crores is the next year target, at least minimum. So I think if we're able to do that, I think we'll come close to a break even.
Thank you. Good.
Based on the portfolio we have.
Thank you.
Okay. Thanks.
The next question is from the line of Nirali Shah from Ashika Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Hi. I'm audible?
Yes, ma'am.
Yeah. Please go ahead.
Just one question I had. So how should we look at FY26 in comparison to FY25? Just wanted to understand what kind of growth should we pencil in for FY26? And do we expect Q4?
It all depends on the price erosion It all depends on the Revlimid's price erosion. So I think that because it plays such a big role in our earnings, I don't know. I think it should do well. I think at this time, we are thinking that we'll be able to maintain the same earnings that we have this year. But again, once we have clarity on how much erosion is, I think we can put more color on that. But as of now, that's the base case. I think hopefully we'll be able to. Again, whatever I'm saying is all different. It's a function of the price erosion. So I think we'll have more clarity in the coming quarter, I suspect.
So should we take 20% on a conservative basis? So that is the guidance that.
No, no. I have no question. No, no. I'll not fall into that trap. No. I refuse to give guidance. I'll tell you when the numbers come, we'll share the numbers, and then we'll see how it goes because it's hard to predict at this time.
Okay. And just on the Q4, do we expect it to be weaker than the Q3?
Say that again, miss. Say that one more time.
Should we expect the Q4 to be weaker than the Q3? Because first half has been fabulous for our company. So do we expect Q4 to be a little bit more weaker?
Again, see, we're getting clearance in March. So it'll be a—you only have one month of sales. So I think we'll start off slowly and then, but.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have lost the connection of the management p lease stay connected while we reconnect them. Ladies and gentlemen, we have the line for the management again. Mr. Rajeev?
Yeah. Please go ahead.
I'm sorry. We got disconnected. Can you repeat the question? I didn't catch the question c an you repeat it?
Yeah s o I was asking, will the Q4 be a little weaker than the Q3? So this is in the hindsight that the first half has been really good for the company. And given that 20% growth on the bottom line, so even if the Q4 is weaker than Q3, we would still be able to achieve that growth. So it's just one month away from closing the Q4.
It's hard to predict. I don't want to come and say something, and then I'll be caught by surprise. What I know, I'll tell you, we're going to have a 33% allocation. We will launch it in March, and we believe that we should have a good year, and how much quantity we sell in every quarter, I think we'll just see how the market plays out.
Understood. Understood. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Manish from Digita Pharma. Please go ahead.
Hello. Rajeev ji. Hello. Rajeev ji. Good morning.
Good morning. Good morning.
Sir, how are you, sir? This is Manish Lodhia. Sir, you have sold about one-third market with this March Q1 and Q2 sales. It will increase or decrease in Q4?
What's your question again? Can you repeat? Your question is Q4?
You have told that one-third market will be there in Q4. Hello?
Yes. But it's yeah, yeah, yeah. It's correct. Yes.
Revlimid. So this will be better than Q1, Q2, or it will be decrease?
I think we have not answered that question, sir. I think what we have said is that we're getting an allocation. It will start off in March, and we should do well during the year is what I've said. We have not given how much we'll sell in Q1, how much we'll sell in Q4, how much in Q1. We have not given guidance. We just said that we had one-third of the quantity. That's all we said.
Q4 will be.
It's a function of market share and market erosion.
What is the size of Everolimus in Q4? Next year, what size can grab?
Everolimus' total market is about $120 million. There are two generics. We have a 50/50 share with our partners, so.
It will be impacting Q4?
Some portion of it will come in Q4. Yeah. Some portion will come in Q4. Yes.
Some of it, yes.
Some portion will come in Q4. And what about next year? You are looking good with this product?
Yes. With Everolimus, yes. Yeah. We're looking good. Yes. Yes.
You are looking good. Now, I'm ending this portion along with one request. Can you look on the investor side also, sir, please? Hello?
Investment side.
Investors, please look on investors also, sir.
We are looking at investors. We're doing what is right for the company.
Because we invested in your company seeing bright future. But the result was very bad.
See, I'll tell you. Let me answer this question. See, one fundamental thing that you need to understand with us is our company chases big jackpots. And sometimes you're going to live with volatility. And they're so dependent on one particular event or one or two events happening, it causes huge volatility.
If you're an investor in our company and you've been around long enough, you'll know that you'll have volatility. But you look at it in terms of a long-term view, we have always delivered great earnings. It's just that sometimes you'll have quarters which are going to be difficult. And you'll have probably a year or two where sometimes it's difficult. But the pipeline, the product filings are always very lucrative. And I think in terms of our gross margin, we're probably the best in the industry.
You have to understand that you have to live with the volatility. I've said this many times, and I'll repeat it one more time. You have to live with the volatility. That's the nature of our model. Unless you're willing to accept that, you will always see these highs and lows w e are not the company which will deliver 10% going on growth, 15% consistent earnings w e are not that type of company. Because we chase jackpots, that's the nature of our business. There's always uncertainty. I think that's the way it is.
Thank you. Next caller.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Raghav from Rajitha Pharma. Please go ahead.
Hello.
Yes, sir. You're audible.
Yeah. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Sir, any good news for investor side in future? Any positive news that I have?
No, sir. That's all I can tell you. We'll have an excellent year. We are hopeful that we'll have a good year based on the assumptions that we have made.
Not only financial-wise, but also stock-wise, sir?
I don't control stock price. I can only control. See, my friend, my fiduciary responsibility is to tell you the way it is, what we're learning, what we're not learning, what is our jackpot, what is not our jackpot. End of the day, it is for you to value us based on what we are saying. Okay. Next caller, please.
Thank you. The next follow-up question is from the line of Gagan from ASK Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks. You indicated that you're looking aggressively for an acquisition. Is it possible to spell out, give some color on which areas or which markets would be priority for you? How are you largely thinking about the acquisition?
One is we want to strengthen our RoW business. I think that's one acquisition we're looking at. Another one, possibly, is also to strengthen our US strength because our US strength doesn't give much sales. So that's if you want to strengthen that portfolio. I think these are two active areas we're looking at this time.
Right. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Gaurav Sudheesh Shah from Kotak Securities Limited. Please go ahead.
Hi. I got a very simple question. I was just looking at the trend. Generally, is it so that the Q3 is a little soft for us? Has that been historical, and what could be the probable reasons for this technicality?
Say that one more time.
Is the Q3 or the quarter that passed for FY24, has been soft?
It's very simple. It's very simple. Basically, what happens is you get a quantity allocation in Q1, which is, no, sorry, in March, so basically, what you do is you sell some portion in March, you sell some portion in June, and you sell some portion in September, and if you have anything left, you sell in December, and usually, December tends to be the weakest, and your June and September tends to be the strongest, and March is probably the most moderate month, and if you have enough, so I think that's how it works.
Noted. Noted. Thanks.
Thank you.
Thanks.
The next follow-up question is from the line of Dixit Doshi from Whitestone Financial Advisors Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Just one follow-up. You mentioned that next year growth depends on the price erosion on the Revlimid as well. So, second thing, because I was assuming that price erosion will happen only once it goes off patent post January 2026, or price erosion can happen even earlier also?
See, there is some. I don't want to get into the pricing of the product. I think I'm putting my caveats out based on what I believe will drive the earnings. It's a function of the market and the market formation. So that's the best way I can answer that question.
Okay. But usually, let's say historically in other drugs also, have we seen the price erosion even before the patent expiry? Because right now, it is controlled market only. So why would price erosion happen?
There is some. I don't want to get into it, my friend. Sun is handling the marketing. And there's a lot of other dynamics and other generics are also there. So I can't answer that question. But there is erosion. Hopefully, it will hold up to a point so that we can make some money. I think that's it.
Okay. Fine. That's excellent.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Hrishikesh Patole from BNK Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi. Am I audible?
Yes, sir.
Yeah. Please go ahead.
Just quickly, what were the subsidiary sales in Q2 and for nine months as well? Can you just provide some numbers?
Year-to-date sales of the subsidiaries is about INR 480 crores.
480 crores. Okay. 408. 408.
For Q2?
Q3 is 109.
Okay. Sir, any update you can provide on the Q2 site? I mean, where do you stand with the progress at the main?
I think our remediation action is ongoing, and I think.
Okay.
So as of now, we are still supplying. But we have moved a lot of the key products to Vizag. So I think that's fair here.
Okay. Okay. That's good.
Sir, does that answer your question?
Yes.
Next caller.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashish Kabra, who is an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Hello? Hello. Can you hear me?
Yeah. Yeah. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Sir, I have just one question. Sir, at present, we have INR 3,000 crores of cash. And next year, as my previous participant told, that we'll be around INR 5,000 crores. So sir, can we take debt also to take these takeovers that you talk about? Or? Possible.
Let the takeover happen. And I think we'll see how much cash we have to use, how much debt we have to use, and all that stuff. We'll decide that.
Okay. And sir, you told that the takeover will be from geography-based. But in what sectors that will be? Can you just give some color on that?
I think we said no. I think one in the U.S. market and one in the rest of the world market, not the advanced regulated markets, rest of the world market.
Yeah. But that is geography-bound. But in what sectors? Like formulations or?
Pharmaceuticals. I mean, therapeutic prescription pharmaceuticals.
Okay. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is.
Yeah. Next.
The next question is from the line of Rusmik Oza from 9 Rays Equities. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, my simple observation is this December quarter, we didn't have sales of Revlimid. And we did INR 475 crores of revenue. Does it mean that in between March to September, we've done roughly around close to INR 2,500 crores of Revlimid sales? And if we can because the calendar year is the end, the last calendar year, if you could just provide us an absolute figure of what kind of Revlimid sales we did last calendar year, it will help us to understand what kind of growth we'll see in this calendar year based on one-third market share.
I will not do a split. Marketing reasons, of the competitive reasons. Second question is, you know, that you'll have one-third share. It all depends on the erosion that it's going to be. You can't predict last quarter sale with next year's sales. That is not possible. We'll just see how the price erosion is, and we'll see how we'll take it from there.
Okay. Okay. Second question, sir. On the base business, any guidance you would like to give? What kind of growth you are anticipating for this calendar year or FY26?
I think the India launches we have spoken about. And I think we're expecting our RoW business also to do reasonably well because we have a lot of those expecting business. Almost seven, eight of those are expected in this coming year. And Canada also, we're expecting some good launches. And Middle East also, we're doing reasonably well. I think we should do well. Again, I don't want to give a particular number. But yeah, I think, yeah, we should do well.
Any guidance on the agrochemical business? Because that's been quite volatile in the last many quarters. How do you see this panning out?
We believe I think next year, our target is that we should at least break even. We're doing about INR 60 crores a year right now. Our target is that we should target about INR 120- 150 crores next year. So that will help us come closer to break even.
Okay. Okay. Thank you, sir. That's it from my side.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vignesh, who is an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Sir, good morning. I have a question regarding the current scenario in U.S. tariff. What my question is, in case the U.S. laid some tariff on import on pharmaceutical products from India, will this impact our revenue? And if yes, what is the strategy we are planning to escape from this impact?
I think as of now, it's premature to answer that question. But it will affect the whole industry, right? I think because a lot of the manufacturing is out of India.
But yes, sir, this affects the whole industry. But what I'm asking is, do we have any specific strategy to escape from this, like expand to some other countries like that?
The only escape is you need to build, buy a front-end and front-end manufacturing in the U.S. That's the only way you can go forward. The only solution. I think as the earlier we said, we're looking at a front-end in the U.S. So I think if we're able to get a manufacturing across to make it interesting. But yes, I think that's the only solution for which we don't have a front-end manufacturing in the U.S. But that's the only solution if at all that problem were to happen.
So we are ready to move our manufacturing in the U.S. itself. That's what you are saying, right?
Some products we can. I mean, you can't do everything, honestly. It doesn't work out. But yes, I think we will have to move some products to the U.S., I think most probably. I think to answer your question, if there were tariffs and then what is your plan B, that would be your plan.
Okay, sir. Thank you.
Good luck.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Arun Malhotra from CapGrow Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the follow-up. Just wanted to ask, what has been the price erosion till now in Revlimid from day one and number of players present?
I can't answer that question. I'm sorry, my friend. I can't answer that question. Thanks. If you have any other questions, please ask.
Thank you. That's it.
Thank you. The next follow-up question is from the line of Chetan Doshi from Tulsi Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity again. Rajeev, something which you would like to share with the shareholders which on immediate basis, some cheer up from the company. See, in spite of certain bad things happening, some good things are also happening in the company which we don't know. If you would like to share something, we'll be very grateful.
I think overall, I think there's not see, Chetan, let me answer. You asked me very philosophical questions. I'll give you a philosophical answer. I think what we're doing see, my job is only to tell you what we're doing. I think we can tell you this is the product that we have filed, and this is what we think the outcome is, and this is what is the volatility.
And I think my fiduciary responsibility is to tell you what we're doing. That's all I can tell you. And I think at the end of the day, we hope that a lot of the strategies that we pursue will work. And I think sometimes they don't work, and that causes volatility. It's the nature of the beast. That's all I can tell you. Yeah. Thank you. I'll take my last question, please.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rahul Chaudhary, who is an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir.
Yeah.
Sir would it be fair to assume that ex-Revlimid meant our operating margins would be around 18%-20%?
In as of. Whatever.
Yeah. Whatever other business we are doing. Because I mean, the numbers talk to me as if I think we are doing like 18% operating margin if I remove the R&D that you talk about. Because this quarter is like Revlimid, right?
Yeah. Yeah. I think yeah. I mean, again, yes, possible. I think it depends on the quarter. Yes, possible.
Yeah. Because I mean, if you have to forecast asking us to do it two years later, semaglutide.
But sir, domestic.
Yeah. See, Rahul, I've answered that question. So basically, what I've said is that we should do well this year. We should do well next year. But you should assume in 2027 that we should see a drop of more than 50%-60% in our earnings. I think that's already there. It's factored in. And I think this has been told many times that we should see it. And I think we have been telling that I think you have to accept the volatility because when something big goes away, it is going to impact. And we are very honest about it. I think we've been upfront about it.
No problem. Sir, sir.
I'll reiterate it one more time that you have to accept that this is how it's going to be. But you have to assume that we have these other products. And some of them will come through eventually. And that you will see a period of volatility. But that's the way the business works.
But, like you said, we have a fiduciary duty also to do what's the best. Last nine years, if you look at the company's market cap and we shareholders, we don't get any salaries or whatever. So we are working on the capital allocation. But that hasn't happened. So do you think the strategy is still working? It must be working because you are earning. Yeah. Because for nine years, the strategy you have applied, I mean, that is where we are right now.
See, Rahul, what I'll do is okay. See, what we are trying to do is I think we try to maintain the best governance that we have. And we try to do the best we can based on what we believe the market is. If you look at our earnings, I think we're probably one of the best earnings in the industry in terms of if it, I mean, hard earnings will match any of the larger cap companies.
The fundamental issue here is that there's an element of volatility that comes in our earnings. And it is the way it is. I mean, I don't have a better answer to that question. But what I can strive to do is that we try to build a business which is more stable at a base level by doing an acquisition, which we've not been able to execute obviously. I mean, I'll be very honest about it. That's probably one thing you probably didn't get right. But I think we are trying to see what we can do to get that right. But having said that, in terms of our ability to deliver, I think we're probably the best. We've done as good as anybody else.
So, my last follow-up, my question is.
Yeah. No problem.
I think apart from Revlimid now, what we are all looking forward to is a domestic opening up of semaglutide market. Because I think that is the thing that is going to replace somewhat the earnings right now. So where do we as investors get to follow up as to where NATCO is in the permission queue? How do we, I mean, which is the website or how do we get to know such a thing? Because last I read that Sun Pharma and you had both applied. I think some waiver you've got because you've already done some global tests and all that. So how do we track of that?
Basically, you asked me, so I'll ask you. I'll answer the question, so basically, what the DCGI has done is they've asked everybody to do a bioequivalence study, so we have done a bioequivalence study, and we've shared that data. Now we're awaiting the clinical permission. Sun and Reddy, I think, have already started the clinical, and I think we are hoping we'll get our clinical permission shortly. I think everything is clear. We're hoping to start.
And if we start the clinical trial, then quickly we need to dose and show efficacy. Hopefully, we'll be able to complete this trial by end of the year, and then we submit for permission by end of the year, and all goes well and regulatory permission, all issues resolved, hopefully, we'll be able to launch it next year. I think that's the timeline.
All right, sir. Thank you very much, sir.
Okay. Thank you so much. Thank you, everyone.
Thank you so much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraint, we will take that as the last question.