Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to NATCO Pharma Limited Q2 FY26 earnings call, hosted by BNK Securities. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Hrishikesh from BNK Securities. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of BNK Securities, I welcome you all to the Q2 FY26 earnings conference call of NATCO Pharma. Hope everyone is in good health and doing well. On behalf of NATCO today, we have with us Mr. Rajeev Nannapaneni, Vice Chairman and CEO, Mr. Rajesh Chebiyam, Executive Vice President, Crop Health Sciences. I will hand over the call to Rajeev for the management's opening remarks, after which we will open the session for Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Right. Thank you, Hrishikesh. Good morning and welcome, everyone, to NATCO's conference call discussing our earnings results for the second quarter of FY26, which ended September 30, 2025. As a disclaimer, during the call, we may be making certain forward-looking statements or statements about future events, and anything said on this call which reflects our outlook for the future must be reviewed in conjunction with the risks that the company faces. I would like to state that the material of the call, except for the participant questions, is the property of NATCO and cannot be recorded or rebroadcast without NATCO's expressed written permission. We will begin with the results highlight and then go for a Q&A. I hope all of you have received our financials and the press release that was sent earlier today. These are also available on our website.
NATCO recorded consolidated total revenue of INR 1,463 crores for the quarter ended on 30 September 2025, as against INR 1,434.9 crores as of 30 September 2024. EBITDA for the quarter was at INR 679.2 crores, with margins at 46.4%. The net profit for the period on a consolidated basis was INR 517.9 crores. During the quarter, the company has incurred substantial R&D expenses on bioequivalents and one-time employee bonuses, in addition to other business-related provisions. The Board of Directors have declared an interim dividend of INR 1.5 per equity share of INR 2 during the quarter. On the segmental revenue split for quarter two, the API clocked INR 53.9 crores, domestic formulations INR 105.4 crores, formulation exports, including the profit share and subsidiaries, clocked INR 1,147 crores, crop health sciences clocked INR 52.4 crores, other operating and non-operating income was INR 104.3 crores, all consolidating to INR 1,463 crores. Thank you all. We'll take Q&A now.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Rahul, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. My query is that other expenses had by you said this for research and development on bioequivalents. Does that mean it's for the purpose of Para IV filings for generic drugs?
Yes, sure. Rahul, to answer your question, yes, there are Para IV filings for generic drugs, and we're doing some clinical trials for first-time generics in India. There is a lot of one-time costs that we have had, some substantial costs that we've had. There were some R&D purchases that we have done, which were very expensive. That is the reason why the other expenses are a little bit on the higher side.
Okay, sir. All right, sir. And sir, what is the reason for the increase in provisions to very high relative to where we did not have so much? It is just to cushion the impact of the next two quarters?
I think what we did is, I mean, it's a good quarter, so we thought we'll make provisions for contingencies. I think the major provisions that we have made, I think one was for patent litigation we have made. There's not a cash outflow, but it's a provision. There were some business expenses and then some inventory and some general core for the business, part for the core for the business. They are routine business expenses that we have provisioned for.
One last question, sir. Domestic semaglutide, we were given phase III clinical trial somewhere in December or January earlier this year. Typically, how long does it take?
We're on target.
We're on target.
Everything is review is all completed. If you file in December, we're hoping that will be in the first wave, which is we're hoping the market will open around March. So we expect around March. Yeah. Next caller, please.
All right.
Thank you very much. Participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one at this time. I repeat, participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one at this time. The next question is from the line of Hrishikesh from BNK Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon, everyone. Quickly, Rajeev, on the Revlimid update, I mean, how has the quarter panned out? Are we seeing incremental competition, and what is the way forward in 3Q and 4Q? That's my first question.
I think this quarter has done well. I think we have done extremely well. I think that's reflected in the numbers. Regarding Q3 and Q4, we're not expecting much. I think we're seeing more competition. I'm not expecting much. I think in my mind, in our budgeting, we have not kept much revenue from Lenalidomide. We see increased competition and uncertainty about whether we'll get market shares. I think we're not budgeting much.
Has the market changed vis-à-vis what it was in Q2, materially, in Q2 versus Q1?
No, you're asking me what our estimation of Q3, Q4 is. Our estimation is there'll be more intense competition, so we're not sure whether we'll have market share. That's the reason why we're not budgeting much.
Okay, that's helpful. Second, I mean, to Rajeev, on the agri front, I mean, what's the status and update on the CTPR? I mean, we are launched. Have we gained enough market share what we expected, what we internal had projected?
I think we have done well. I think, yeah, the CTPR has done well, especially CTPR combinations have done well. If you look at the business now, it has grown to about INR 52 crores this quarter. We are at least close to EBITDA positive now. Earlier, we were losing money. Now we are doing, give or take, R&D expense here or there. I think we are about EBITDA positive at this time. It is in a good place. I think we have announced earlier that we will demerge this business from the main company and list it separately. We are targeting that for the year 2026.
Just quickly, has CTPR exports commenced?
I think the focus right now is mostly on the domestic business. We have some opportunity, but I think most of the opportunity is in the domestic space.
Okay.
We'll give a chance to the next caller.
Thank you. Yeah.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ask a question, please press star and one. The next question is from the line of Nitin Agarwal from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
All right. Thanks for taking the question. Rajeev, for FY26, have we made any new Para IV filings? And how much are you looking to file anything in H2?
I think we intend to file another three, four products, Nitin. I think whether we will be sold FTF and all that, I do not know. We will speak about it once the filings are done. We are targeting another three, four filings in the next few months.
On semaglutide, apart from the domestic market, are we looking to enter any of the markets over the next couple of years?
No, I think the major focus is domestic, and then we're looking at some opportunities in the Western world. Those do not open up for the next few years. Right now, only India.
Okay. Rajeev, something more on the India business, barring semaglutide, if you can just give us a little bit more color on how has the business really fared over the last couple of quarters? How do you see it moving except for semaglutide? How do you see it faring going forward? Per se, what are your own thoughts on how relevant is sema for us from a domestic market perspective over the next couple of years?
I think domestic has done well, and I think it has been stable, as you can see. I think this quarter, we had to launch a residue plan, which is also doing reasonably well. It is not a large product, but nevertheless, it will strengthen the base business. I think the biggest one will be semaglutide. Hopefully, if all regulatory approvals pending, every other thing goes well, we should be in the first wave, which I anticipate around March or April. I think everything is on target, Nitin. My sense is that we will do well next year. I think the domestic business should do reasonably well. I think a lot of it is driven by the, I think semaglutide, obviously, is the big one. I think that and the smaller brands also should do well.
If I could squeeze in the last one, any commentary on a key subsidiary outside of the U.S., in terms of launches and the kind of scale-up they've had in the business?
I mean, see, December quarter will be the first quarter where we will not have revenue substantially. I think this will be, in a way, a different type of a quarter. My sense is that we are stable. I think we're looking good. I think we have good launches in Brazil. We're the first generic of sofosbuvir in Brazil, so that is doing reasonably well. I think the RoW business, I mean, Saudi is doing well. I think our Canada business also, after the warning letter being lifted in Kothur, they're able to do more supplies to Canada. Our sense is that overall, our RoW business is doing well. Domestic is stable. We have some very good launches lined up in the U.S. next year. I think overall, we're very excited. We believe the base should do well.
Okay. Thank you so much.
Okay. Thanks.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Kunal Randeria from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, good evening, Rajeev and Rajesh. Rajeev, any particular launches you want to call out in the U.S. for FY 2027 and 2028?
No, I can't, Kunal, because they're all bound by confidentiality. You can probably, we have shared our Para IV pipeline, which is there in our website. Exactly, you can't name them until we are closer to the launch, Kunal. I think you should expect 2026, 2027, we'll have one or two, but bigger launches are happening in 2027, 2028. 2026, 2027 will be a little dull, I think 2027, 2028 on, things will pick up.
Fair point. Fair point. Secondly, again, going back to semaglutide, the fact that you have an FTF in the U.S., I'm just a bit surprised why you aren't pursuing opportunities in markets where you're present, like Canada, Brazil, now South Africa. Just what's exactly happening there?
No, South Africa we can do. I think we're doing South Africa, but the patent opens up not right now. It'll open up a little later. Canada and all, we gave it to Viatris. We are not in the first wave. I think that's why we're not giving any guidance at this time.
Sorry, you gave it to Viatris, meaning you sold it, or is it your partner? I'm sorry, I didn't get that.
No, no. We have a deal, no, Kunal. It's there in the public domain. Our regulated market business is through Viatris and we have a JV with our CMO, our partner, OneSource, and the regulated market business is through Viatris.
Sure, sure. Brazil, are you targeting that market?
We're looking at it, but I think, see, our doctor is not so advanced where I can give you timelines on launch and all. I think once we make significant regulatory progress, I think I'll talk about it.
Sure, sure. Thanks a lot.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. Participants may press star and one in order to ask a question. I repeat, participants may press star and one in order to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Rahul, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Sir, recently, there was a news report of the U.S. government making some deals with the innovators of Ozempic, Wegovy, and substantially reducing their prices for the consumers. Doesn't that impact us in our future that we thought about the U.S. semaglutide opportunity?
No, I think the opportunity is so large, Rahul. It won't matter. I think it's such a large opportunity. When it actually opens up, any share that you take in that volume, you'll be very happy. Obviously, there will be some disruption, but overall, the opportunity is fairly large.
Secondly, sir, there was a recently this news report came about you all winning a government tender from the Chinese government for olaparib. So we didn't have any disclosure on that. Is that not very material financially? That's why? Or it's still not 100%?
It's not a lot. I mean, we won the tender, but it's a very cutthroat price. So it's not a material amount. We are selling in China, which is good. We have a reasonable RoW business. I think you're seeing that in our export business. We are doing reasonably well. Yeah, it's not like a, as you rightly said, it's not a very large amount that is worthy of speaking about. It is routine.
So one.
Routine market.
Understood, sir. One question, sir. Now that we have completed the Adcock purchase, in Q3, will we see the impact of all the three quarters of Adcock this year? Revenue and the profit?
Yeah. So I think.
Or just.
Yeah, sure, sure. I'll answer that question. Basically, what will happen is I think we need to understand one thing. Now, lenalidomide is gone. What we are going to have are numbers without substantial contribution of lenalidomide. My expectation is, again, I'll speak only for the next six months because I do not want to talk about next year because we will have more clarity in the next few months. We expect our run rate to be around INR 750-INR 800 crore of revenue. A PAT should be around INR 135-INR 150 crore. I think that is what I can give, which is more or less consistent with the annual guidance that we gave. For six months, what is our profit, Rajesh? Again, give me one second.
Around INR 1,000 crores.
Around INR 1,000 crores.
Yeah, INR 998 crores. I think we'll end the year with about another extra INR 250-INR 300 crores of extra PAT we were expecting. More or less, I think it's on the guidance. What we're doing is because we don't have 50% plus, we're going to consolidate only the profit, not the—so we will be able to consolidate partially for this quarter, not the full quarter, because the actual delisting happened only last few days ago. For some portion of this quarter, we'll be able to do. For next quarter onward, we'll be able to consolidate fully. I think that's what our expectation is. We'll only do as an associate. The sales of that entity, if I remember correctly, is about—the exchange rate keeps changing—is about $550 million.
PAT is around $46 million as a steady state PAT they had. You can do the math. About 36% is what we want to consolidate.
One last question from your presentation, sir. We have this stage on the four, five investments that we have done in Celogen and senotherapeutics and two other. How are we governing our investment there, sir? Because these are new, niche things. Do not they need more investments? There is one in novel drug thing also, like senotherapeutics. How do we monitor our investments there, what these companies are doing?
We have a team which monitors. I think a lot of these investments are a skill set that we do not have internally. We do it to build relationships to understand what is happening. It is a finite amount of investment. I mean, it is not a large amount. I think, as you are aware, we had a reasonable amount of surplus. I think the amount of money that we have put does not exceed more than INR 40-INR 50 crores a year. A lot of these are very small investments. They are all very exciting ones. I think, obviously, the biggest exciting one is the eGenesis one, which is the kidney transplant where they are taking a genetically engineered pig and putting it in a human. One of the patients actually lived for more than six months. Another patient is still comfortable.
He's on the pig kidney. These are very disruptive investments, my friend. If you get any of these right, I mean, you can only do a.
Do we have? There's a CAR T-cell therapy also and this one. Do we have any provision of increasing our investment there, equity value? Or this is finite?
I think so. I think any opportunity comes, we will do. I think we're always open to these ideas. Yeah, I think we're always open.
Okay, sir. Thank you, sir.
Okay then. Thank you so much. Next caller, please.
Thank you very much. A reminder for participants to press star and one in order to ask a question. I repeat, participants may press star and one in order to ask a question. The next question is from the line of SC Gupta, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Good day, Rajeev. I would like to know, you also talked about sometime back about a takeover in the U.S. also. Is that on?
What is—could you say that again, please?
You spoke about a takeover in the rest of the world and one in the U.S. Is that on? Like you have taken over Adcock Ingram.
Yeah. We're looking at different investment options. We're always open. I think we still have substantial cash even after the transaction. I think we're looking good. Any opportunities there, definitely we're looking at. Yeah.
Okay. US opportunities, still you are looking for. If you get a good opportunity, you will take it.
Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely, yes. Thank you.
Secondly, about the ad hoc turnover, are you expecting a reasonable growth in ad hoc also?
I think so. We just got into the asset, so I can't speak about it right now. Yes, I think we expect good growth in the asset. We're going to add a pipeline to the asset as well. We're giving our India pipeline and also licensing other products from our partners. We believe that it has a lot of substantial growth. Not in the near term, but I think in the long term, yes. Absolutely.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Arlo Choudhary, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir. My question is the INR 3,900 crores that is lying in your books. In the last con call, you have mentioned that you were looking for some acquisitions. Is that there in your mind, or it will take another three to four months? My second question is, does it hold any significance now of the FTF of semaglutide in the U SA? Because earlier, around a year back, it was like that you will definitely enter the market and you will generate a good sale. Now many of the pharma companies are there in the market. Does it hold any significance, and will it have a material impact on your volumes?
For India, you're saying, or for U.S., you're saying?
For USA.
Okay, fine. Let me answer one question at a time. First, you said how much cash we have. Yeah, INR 3,000 net we have. This is before the Adcock acquisition. We spent, I think, INR 1,600 of the cash we have used for the Adcock acquisition, and we borrowed about INR 400 for the transaction. Of the INR 3,900, INR 1,600 has been used up by the company. Plus, there will be some receivable that we will have in the next for this quarter, for the announced quarter. We expect the cash will be around maybe INR 2,700-INR 2,800 is what we are expecting the cash will settle around. We will see how things go. Yeah. That is our expectation on the cash. Regarding semaglutide opportunity, I think it is an interesting opportunity. I think the FTF means that you will be the only one before everyone else.
It does not mean that you, because of competition, are not able to launch a product before everyone else. You can launch provided you get the FTF. This is all subject to regulatory approval and us getting the FTF. That is obviously the most important thing here. If you get it, then I think we are okay. The opportunity still remains interesting. Even post-exclusivity, because it is such a large market, there will be a reasonable opportunity. I think that is my sense. I would disagree with you when you say that the opportunity does not exist. It is still a very good opportunity.
Okay. Okay, sir. My last question is that, what do you think that you will be able to make up with the sale of semaglutide that you will be losing with the Revlimid sale, maybe in three to four years with the same margin, or the margin will dilute?
See, I've already told what our margins are going to be in the next few quarters. I think we already spoke about that already there on the record. See, our business, the way it works is you have your base business, you have what you get. The trick in this business is that you keep doing something innovative all the time, and then you get that jackpot, which can give you that something special. We keep trying different things. I think we have a lot of FTFs that are there in the next 10 years. If you look at our pipeline, we have semaglutide, which is a few years away. We have Ibrutinib, which is a few years away. We have olaparib, we have fedratinib. And they'll play out over the next few years. I think what I've said, like 27 March, we don't have anything.
I think post-27 March, some of these smaller FTFs will start paying up. When will we hit that very large number and all? It's all contingent on what pipeline we have and what we file and how we do things. You just have to be patient and just look at the pipeline, and somewhere you'll get a breakthrough.
Sir, one more question. Can I ask?
The base will grow around the base. I'll conclude. The base will grow around 10%-15% every year, I think, with the new base that has been set. The upside is always there, depending on what product you put out.
Sir, one more question. Sorry. Sir, as our Revlimid is now off-patented, can you be able to sell it on the regulated market and rest of the world market in the generic form also? At least it can give some traction to the bottom line because you have all the facilities and all. Aren't you looking for the generic product? You told that you have not provisioned for Revlimid sale in the quarter three and quarter four.
We will get some sale. I'm not saying we will not get any sale. What I'm saying is that the sale will be driven by a very high amount of competition. We are not giving a very aggressive guidance. That is all we said.
Okay. Okay, sir. That's all from my side. Thank you. All the best for the future.
Okay, fine. All right. Yeah, thank you. Next caller, please.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, a gentle reminder to press star and one in order to ask a question. I repeat, a reminder for participants to press star and one in order to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Hrishikesh from BNK Securities. Please go ahead, sir.
Yeah. Go ahead, Hrishikesh.
Since Hrishikesh, sir, is not responding, we will move to the next question. The next question is from the line of Deepak Ajmera from IGE India. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. Atta this side instead of Deepak. So my question is regarding that what is the status of making Adcock Ingram from public limited companies to private limited?
It's only private, Deepak. What we have done is we have bought out all the public shareholding. Right now, the company is completely deregistered. There are only two shareholders. It's Midwest and there's NATCO. There are only two shareholders in the whole company. That's it. It's a private company right now.
Got it. Secondly, on GWAB Limited side, for Q3, we will get the sales. Is that the understanding, correct, that into Q3, we will get the sales as in the previous quarter? From Q4 onwards, the competition starts?
No, my friend. I think this is it. Q2 is the end. There is nothing in Q3. We do not expect anything. We have normal sale. I think what we have, we are present. Lenalidomide is in multiple markets. We are expecting very heavy competition, so we are not budgeting any large budgets. I think it is very competitive. I think depending on what market share we will get, we will see. We do not expect any big numbers from it. It will be highly competitive numbers because we do not think it will be a very large number.
Got it. On semaglutide side, if all being well, when should we be able to launch the drug?
Easier question. If all is well, when will we be able to launch this product in India?
Correct. India, correct.
Or in the U.S.? India. Okay. India. India, we expect in the first wave, Rahul. I think our clinical trial will get done in December. We hope to file for approval by December and early January. All the work is done. I think all the review is completed. We are only waiting for the clinical trial to be reviewed, and then they will clear it. We are hoping we will be in the first wave in around March, April when the market opens up.
Okay. What about U.S.?
U.S. will take some time. The launch is a few years away. Our regulatory file is still under review, and we're answering some queries, and the launch date is a few years away.
Got it. We have recently won some court case in Delhi for a drug. What kind of impact can it create on RPNM?
It's a small product. I mean, it has got a lot of attention because of the nature of the therapy. It is for spinal muscular atrophy, SMA. It affects young children who have a genetic defect. It's good that we have launched it. We are the only generic in the market right now. We're doing extremely well with the product. It is not a large market. It is not like semaglutide type of market. Very small, niche, limited market. We're doing well in that segment and gives us entry into the neurology segment, so.
Got it. Thank you.
Okay.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Zain from Dholat Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello. Am I audible?
Yes, sir. You're audible.
Yes, you are. Go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. I would like to ask that you have said INR 200 crores-INR 250 crores PAT in H2. Additional PAT will be includes engram, Adcock Ingram, or how will it come?
We are saying about yes. We're doing about INR 135 crore-INR 150 crore a quarter from Q3 onwards and partially in this quarter and fully in Q4. Yes, that includes Ingram. That's correct. Yes.
Okay. So 250 will be including Ingram and some of the upcoming payments.
I said 135-150 per quarter. So it'll be 270-300 for the second half of the year.
Okay. Upfront payment of $2.5 million, how will it go? Sales or it will go to intangibles? How would the balance sheet, where it will be affected?
You mean the ad hoc investment you're saying?
Yes, yes.
Basically what happens is ad hoc investment becomes investment in the balance sheet. It'll be long-term investment. It'll go to non-current assets, I think, if I know my accounting correctly. Then basically what happens is there's the element of book value. There's the element of, what do you call, there'll be an element of goodwill. Some portion you need to sort of amortize, but most of it, I think, will remain as an investment. The numbers are being worked out, but there'll be some small element of amortization. Otherwise, yeah. The profits will be shown as associate, not as control because we don't own 51%.
Okay, sir. Any guidance would you like to give for, yeah, any guidance would you like to give for F-126, R&D, or any filings from the U.S.?
I think the guidance covers everything. We have done INR 1,000 crores for the first half, and I'm giving a guidance for about INR 275 crores-INR 300 crores for the second half. We will end the year with about INR 1,275 crores-INR 1,300 crores PAT. I think that's what we're giving guidance for. I think it's more or less consistent with what we have given at the start of the year. I think we're on track to meet the guidance.
Okay, sir. Thank you.
Okay. All right. Thank you so much.
Thank you very much. Participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one at this time. The next question is from the line of SC Gupta, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
No, sir. My question has been answered. Thank you. I have no more questions.
Okay.
Thank you very much.
Okay. Thank you so much. Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Rahul, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Sir, right from 2010, 2012 to 2017, our share price was on a 10. And you had just started this challenging the setup for the innovators. But the only thing right now, it's a crowded market with even the big Indian domestic pharma companies copying your playbook. I mean, everyone's doing the same thing now, which you did earlier. So in the sense, why don't we have others to copy from?
Yeah. So what's your question, Rahul? You think it's a very competitive business, and we should not do it? Or what is your question?
My question is that why aren't, I mean, like CDMOs, there are other spaces also. Why aren't we expanding in other places where there are margins as well? I mean, isn't this now a, we're not getting the premium by the market for a long time now for doing what we are doing. We continue to do that. In fact, we are getting beaten back into, I mean, we are becoming rich, but only on, I mean, you are becoming rich. Yeah.
Okay, fine. I understood your let me answer your question. See, what does NATCO do? Let us understand this. NATCO does generics. Okay? It does high-quality generics, complex generics. It does it for India. It does it for the world market. This is the business model that we do. Have we been successful in this business? Absolutely, yes. I think you look at the balance sheet, even though the last seven, eight years have been very challenging, if you look at our balance sheet, we have grown dramatically. I think the strength of the balance sheet has been dramatic. Our assets have increased, went past INR 10,000 crores this quarter. I mean, have we done well? Absolutely.
If you look at the buying of Adcock and all, these are very large transactions we did, which we could not have dreamt about seven or eight years ago considering our size of a balance sheet then. We again have a very good pipeline in the future. Regarding CDMO businesses and all, when you challenge patents, you cannot do CDMO. You cannot play both sides. You can either do generics or you do CDMO. You cannot do both. You have to choose which camp you are in. I believe that this is where our future is. This is where our strength is, and this is what we want to do. Regarding market, multiple fancy and all, that is, it is left to you guys. Everybody has a say, and then it goes through a cycle.
What really, in the end, sustains is your business execution and what your vision for the larger business is. You have to just ignore the noise. I think we start looking at stock prices and P/E ratios, and you'll never be able to execute anything. I mean, I'm giving you a general philosophical thinking. I've been a very strong proponent of this. I think you cannot do business thinking about the next quarter. You should be thinking about what the future holds in the next 5, 10 years. This is what we focus on. In the long run, it always pays. Okay?
If I were to critique your ad hoc investment, sir, if I were to critique your ad hoc investment, which is basically doing the normal products, right? Shardee, Kashi, Zukham, all that stuff. Why didn't we are in India. Why couldn't we buy a company here? I mean, our population is also much higher than entire South Africa and, in fact, entire continent of Africa. Why are we not because you are specialists in these complex generics, and we are from India. Why aren't we expanding more here? What prevents us?
No, absolutely. I'll answer your question. I have a very reasonable answer for that question. Basically, in my sense, again, this is my personal view. I know the world doesn't believe it, but it is what I believe. I'll tell you what I believe. I believe assets in India are extremely expensive. You can't buy any acquisition in India unless you pay 30x-40x EBITDA, any high-quality assets. Second, our assets, buy like Adcock. You will get it. We got it at a much—we got it at 10x EBITDA, if I recollect correctly, 10x or 12x EBITDA.
Every single time.
Comparison with multiple that you have outside India and in India. India, everything is highly valued. Second thing is you need to look at return on capital, which is one of the most important criteria that drives my decision. I believe you have a better return on that asset has to perform four times better than just to meet my South Africa investment. You know what I mean? You're buying something 35x-40x times. You're buying something 10x . It has to perform three or four times better just to match the return. I believe these are better returns. Also, it is diversifying our business because, as you said, our business is very volatile because it's very U.S.-dependent. What I'm trying to do is bring stability and bring a business cough and cold is something that we never had in our portfolio.
You have a very strong base business, which I get criticized a lot, right? You do not have a very strong base business. Now, you cannot say that now because we do have a strong base business. South Africa will contribute 25%-30% of our base earnings, which I think helps give you a more sustainable business and hopefully more stability in our earnings. Yeah?
Thank you, sir.
That's fine.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Arlo Choudhary, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Sir, in June 2025, Novo and Emcure, they have launched Poviztra, a semaglutide 2.4 mg injection. Sir, by the time you are saying that you will be in the first wave in March 2026, that drug will be around nine months old in the Indian market. When you will be launching that drug, maybe they can go for a predatory pricing. How will you manage to save your margins? How will you be able to do the domestic sale? By the time three to four months or maybe five months, six months down the line, many of the companies will come in semaglutide. The margins will shrink. Again, can it become another case like Revlimid that, okay, you can generate volume, but margins will not be there? NATCO, genetically, they work maximum on margins, then on volume-driven sales.
What do you think about that? How will you navigate your sale?
Let me answer that question. Yeah, yeah. Fair enough. See, first, let's answer that question one piece at a time. I think you're alluding to the Emcure transaction with Novo Nordisk. I think they've taken an in-license deal from Novo Nordisk. Yes, they have launched before. Obviously, they have their reach, and they will do reasonably well. GenDx will have a price advantage because, obviously, we launch at a substantial discount to the innovator prices. We believe that the discount will be substantial, which will actually increase the size of the market. I'm not going to tell you that we're going to make a lot of money in India. I will never say that. I actually agree with you that it'll be very competitive. I think if you're in the first wave, we'll at least make some money.
We'll be able to build some brand and able to do something. Will it be like a jackpot or anything disruptive for our domestic business, which is not a very large business? Our domestic is only INR 450 crore annualized. For our business, if we add even INR 80-INR 90 crore, for us, it's like a 20% jump in our base business of our domestic, which is a pretty nice number. Will it be like a jackpot, which will generate, let's say, INR 800 crore, INR 1,000 crore for us and semaglutide India launch? No, it's not going to happen, my friend. It's not going to happen. You're absolutely right. There are too many guys in it, and we're going to just eat. It'll be very competitive. It's the nature of the beast, right? You accept what it is, and then you just move on.
The thing is, you got to keep doing these things, but you'll never know what will work, right? So that's how the nature of it is.
Sir, can't it be that once it's off-patent, then you can launch in the rest of the world and maybe other markets, which will be more profitable for you, the U.S., FTF, or the Indian launch of semaglutide?
U.S., any day. U.S., by far. There's no comparison. It's a 100x difference. No comparison here.
That means most of the trust will be for you on the FTF of six months in the U.S. Then you will be giving attention to the Indian market. Given a choice.
Our trust will be mostly on U.S. and the other regulated markets, which are partnership with Viatris, where, I think, is a larger opportunity than India.
Okay.
Absolutely right.
Thank you, sir. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you very much. Participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one at this time. I repeat, participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one at this time. The next question is from the line of Tadavarti Sai Surendran, retail investor. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. First of all, congratulations to the management for the stable performance this quarter. Going ahead, do you expect the next quarter to be even better? Also, the South Africa investment you completed, can you start seeing some contribution from that side?
Yeah. I think I already answered this question, so I'll repeat it one more time. I think the contribution from Revlimid will drop dramatically for the next two quarters. We're given a guidance of about INR 750 crores-INR 800 crores for the quarter. I think an apparent guidance of about INR 135-150 crores per quarter. South Africa will be consolidated partially from this quarter, but fully from next quarter.
Okay. This is the answer. Thank you.
Thank you so much.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Guru, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Amir Audible.
Yes, yes.
Okay. Congratulations on your performance so far. I think what I want to understand is the pipelines and what you have mentioned, right? What is the net expectations in terms of projections, right? Revenue projections for the next five years. What is your projection of the pipelines or what you mentioned in terms of value? How much of revenue you expect for the next five years from the pipelines and what you have?
What about, I think.
What about?
I didn't want to answer the question. What is my expectation of the pipeline? Is that what you're saying?
No, no, no. Let me be clear, right? What is the revenue expectation or projection from your perspective for the next five years from the pipeline perspective, whatever you have in pipeline, past, present, emerging, right? All of these put together for the five years down the lane from now, what is the amount or revenue that you project? I think with the order book, right?
See, I think right now we expect a 10%-15% growth in our base business. Once exclusivities start coming in, I think we'll see a little more jump. We'll have some years where we'll have 50%-60% jump in our profits. I had to do a reset, I think, starting from, let's say, 2026, 2027 will be a bit slow, I think, based on what guidance we're given. I think all the big launches are coming in 2027, 2028, and then slowly we have things in 2029. I think what you need to do is think of it as two buckets. The base business with the RWS spread where we have should grow around 10%-15%. In the years that we have exclusivity, you'll see a substantial jump in the profits.
The opportunities are already there in our presentation. Depending on the size of the opportunity, it will play out. Some of them are $25 million-$30 million type of opportunities. We have a couple of them which are $100 million-$150 million type of opportunities. Depending on which comes in, I think that is what you will see. I think that is how we want to look at it.
Okay. The other question, thank you for that. The other question part of it is real quick. Is there any opportunity of value unlocking for the shareholders when it comes to the Agro business, right? I mean, what would be the value unlocking that we can expect, right? Not accurately, but at least some kind of an indicative thing on the value unlock that you probably plan for the Agro diversification or whatever is in the pipeline.
I think the idea here is that we'll de-merge the company group. I think we are planning the de-merger. I think we have announced it. We will list that entity maybe in some time in 2026 once all the clearances come through. Value unlocking means, I think what we see is this business now is about breaking even now. We will list it separately, and then we'll have special focus on this. It can raise its own capital and grow by itself. Somewhere, I think that business gets in our setup, it's a very small business. I think it'll be good for the shareholders. You'll get a complete see-through in crop businesses, and you also have a pharmaceutical business. I think the real value, I think you'll see it in 2026. What numbers and all, it's very hard to predict right now because of the ratios.
Okay. That's understood. Sorry. That's understood. I mean, can we expect some value unlocking? Can we see that as an opportunity? Sorry about that. I think my question more is not on numbers, more of indicative comments from your side on would that be a good opportunity for shareholder value unlocking with the merger. That's all I wanted to understand.
Yeah, absolutely. Yes. I think you'll get a, yeah, you'll get another business which is not being valued in our system because it's getting, it is a very tiny business and a very large business in pharma. This business will get more attention, and I think shareholders will be duly rewarded for the fact that it's been de-merged.
Understood. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
All right. Thank you all for a wonderful set of questions. Again, once we receive the transcripts, it will be uploaded to the website. Otherwise, all of you, have a great day. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much. On behalf of NATCO Pharma Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.