Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the NATCO Pharma's Q4 FY 2026 earnings conference call, hosted by 360 ONE Capital Markets Private Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Hrishikesh Patole from 360 ONE Capital Markets Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, the line for Mr. Hrishikesh has been disconnected. Please stay connected while we join them back. Ladies and gentlemen, the line for Mr. Hrishikesh Patole has been connected. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Apologies for the delay. Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of 360 ONE, I welcome you all to the Q4 FY 2026 earnings conference call of NATCO Pharma. Hope everyone is in good health and doing well. On behalf of NATCO today, we have with us Mr. Rajeev Nannapaneni, Vice Chairman and CEO, Mr. Amit Parekh, CFO, Mr. Rajesh Chebiyam, Executive Vice President, Crop Health Sciences, and Mr. Rajeev Menon, Investor Relations. I now hand over the call to Rajesh for the management's opening remarks, post which we'll open the session for Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Great. Thank you, Hrishikesh. Good afternoon and welcome everyone to NATCO's conference call discussing our earnings results for the fourth quarter of FY 2026, which ended March 31st, 2026. During this call, we may be making certain forward-looking statements, which are not necessarily historical facts, and anything said on this call which reflects our outlook for the future must be reviewed in conjunction with the risks that the company faces.
We undertake no obligations to update these forward-looking statements. I would like to state that the material of the call, except for participant questions, is the property of NATCO. It cannot be recorded or rebroadcast without NATCO's express written permission. We'll begin with the results highlight and then followed up with the interactive Q&A session. NATCO recorded consolidated total revenue of INR 4,375.9 crore for the year ended March 31st, 2026, as against INR 4,784 crore for the last year.
The net profit for the period on a consolidated basis was INR 1,418.5 crore as against INR 1,883.4 crore last year. For the fourth quarter, which ended March 31st, 2026, the company recorded a net revenue of INR 816.9 crore on a consolidated basis as against INR 1,287.3 crore during fourth quarter of last year.
The profit for the fourth quarter on a consolidated basis was INR 269 crore, including the share of profit of associate, as against INR 406 crore the same period last year. Net profit for the quarter and financial year includes a one-time benefit of INR 115 crore as the company has elected to move to the new tax regime from FY 2026-2027, and has remeasured its deferred tax assets on MAT credit and other deferred tax assets/liabilities. For the quarter, revenue from the associate company, Adcock Ingram Holdings Limited, South Africa, was at INR 1,208.2 crore and profit after tax was at INR 102.5 crore.
NATCO's share of profit based on the current holdings stood at INR 35.7 crores. Thank you all. We'll take the Q&A.
Thank you very much. We will now begin with the question- and-a nswer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants, you are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. A reminder to all the participants, you may press star and one to ask a question. We have the first question from the line of Candice Pereira from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for taking my question. My first question is on the sales. On a YoY basis, it is much lower. I understand it's probably because of Revlimid, but did we have any impact from the West Asia war as well?
This quarter you say? No. Okay. First question was, what was the impact? I think as you rightly pointed out, there's impact of Revlimid as stated by the decline. The second question was, did we have an impact of Middle East? We were able to supply the product. We had some challenge, but we were able to supply. There's been an increase in the freight expenses because we had to reroute from our traditional carriers. We were able to manage.
Okay. Also our other expenses are much higher as a percentage to sales this quarter. Is there any one-time impact or anything in this?
Yeah. Right. Yeah, the other expenses, largely this quarter, we had higher R&D expenses. Also during the quarter, we had looked into some of the engineering spares and all. There were some write-downs. Net-net, it is largely because of R&D expense and little bit because of the engineering spares rate.
Okay. Can you quantify this?
Yeah. Engineering write-down would be around INR 20 crore-INR 30 crore and large part of the remaining would be the R&D.
Okay. All right. Our FY 2027, FY 2028, our tax rate would be around 22%, right? According to the new tax regime.
Including the surcharge, it would be around 25%. 25.1%.
Okay. All right. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Yes.
Sure, sir. We will take the next question from the line of Rahul Chaudhary, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, sir. The presentation doesn't have any guidance for the coming year.
Our expectation is, Rahul, that we should do about INR 3,400 crore-INR 3,500 crore of revenue. Our PAT expectation is between INR 700 crore-INR 750 crore PAT. I'm making an estimate with some assumption of some increase because of the war. Again, I can't predict everything what's going to happen to the year, but we've built in some buffer, but I think that's our expectation that we'll do. In addition to that, our South African associate firm should do, depending on the exchange rate, about $580 million-$600 million of revenue. The PAT expectation of that is about $47 million-$48 million, again, subject to how the exchange rate moves and other war-related factors. The associate profit is subsumed in the INR 700 crore-INR 750 crore projection.
Sir, this quarter, did it have any substantial pomalidomide revenue, or we are going to book it in Q1 mostly because it's a six-month bump up only we'll get, the shared thing?
I didn't see a bump, honestly, Rahul. It's fairly competitive. We had a little bit of a sale, but nothing substantial that can make a meaningful impact on the earnings. It was a reasonable launch, but I think we launched with multiple generics, even though [audio distortion] is an exclusivity, but I think we had multiple generics the first wave. I think four or five guys had exclusivity. I don't know the exact number. It's been fairly competitive.
Sir, what would be the cash in books? It is there in the presentation, I must have missed it.
Yeah. Net cash would be around INR 2,400 crores at a group level. Yeah.
Right. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Before we take the next question, a reminder to all the participants, you may press star and one to ask a question. We have the next question from the line of Thadavarthi Sai Surendra, a retail investor. Please go ahead.
Good evening, management team. This is Sai Surendra. Thank you for giving the opportunity. I have two questions, sir. Over the last several quarters, shareholders have been waiting for the meaningful value creation. Can you please explain what are the key triggers that will improve the investor confidence and drive growth in the coming year?
Your question is, what are the key products for the financial year 2026, 2027? Is that the question? Did I understand you correctly?
Yes.
Okay.
I think there are two, three good triggers, Sai. I think one is semaglutide we have launched. I think we responded generally for the vials. That is doing reasonably well. We could launch on day one on the pen, we could launch a vial on day one. We're able to cater to a market which is very price sensitive. Even the revenue that you're getting per vial is maybe one-third or one-fourth of what you're getting on the pen. In terms of market share, I think there's been a good uptake. Particularly our Brazilian sub is going to do very well. We had a lot of first-time launches in our oncology portfolio. These two will be the major triggers. Of course, we will be having consolidated income coming from South Africa, from our shareholding in South Africa.
I think compared to the past, I think NATCO has a more diversified revenue, and these earnings are without lenalidomide. Obviously, there's a drop compared to last year. I think the impact on our earnings is substantial. I think in spite of the fact that there's practically no lenalidomide or it's a very competitive lenalidomide, we are able to generate about INR 700. Our expectation of 750 basis points, I think, are reasonably achieved.
Okay.
Thank you.
Next question. FY 2026 was a challenging year compared to FY 2025. What is giving the management confidence that FY 2027 will be a better year for shareholder?
I think, Sai, the way you want to look at this is, I think we have always guided there'll be a decline. I think our commentary has always been that we will decline. I think you need to understand that the nature of this business is that you're going to have one-offs, and then you're going to do very well at this time. Then when there's going to be a drop, you're going to have a year or two where you're going to see a dip. Again, a larger event happens. It's a cyclical business, and I think the nature of the beast. Because we bet on a lot of these jackpots, when the jackpot comes, then earnings look good or you have an exclusivity looks good. When you don't have the exclusivity, the numbers look a dip.
I think you have to look at it and take the bigger picture. I think we have a very good pipeline for the future with a lot of exclusivities coming up. We don't have anything in 2027, that's true. I think post 2027, you'll see some of these other exclusivities will start kicking in. I think 2028 onwards you'll be able to see a reasonable ride in. Thank you. Next caller, please.
Thank you. Before we take the next question, a reminder to you all, you may press star and one to ask a question. We will take the next question from the line of Hrishikesh Patole. Please go ahead.
Hi, am I audible?
Yeah, go ahead.
Yes, you are.
Yeah. quickly on the full-year subsidiary sales, what was the number?
Just the subs?
Yes.
Amit, can you help me out, please? Just the subs. Just give me a moment. I'll just find. For three years. It's around INR 500 crores.
Okay. Just a follow-up on that, on subsidiaries. You mentioned Brazil on the previous answer, on the previous participant, Brazil doing well. What about Canada and other markets? Do we expect semaglutide to come through this calendar year, Canada?
Not sema, but any other products in Canada.
No, we have other oncology products which are coming through both in Brazil and Canada. sema, we don't have a filing in Canada yet, but I think we are working on few things. As of now, no. In the first wave, we're not there in sema. Our oncology pipeline is there in both Brazil and Canada. That's what is going to drive here.
Okay. My second question is on the M&A. In post the Adcock, we had said we are looking for one more. How is the progress there? Any update?
We're looking at a couple of transactions.
That's it.
Yeah. Sure. Yeah, we are looking at a couple of transactions. I think as Amit said, we have about INR 2,400 crore net cash. Very comfortable we can look at one or two large acquisitions. We're looking at different things. As of now, I don't have an update, but hopefully we will be able to achieve something in this financial year as well. Thank you. Next caller, please.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Udhayaprakash from Value Research. Please go ahead. Udhaya, please proceed with the question.
Yeah. Hope I'm audible now.
Yes, you are audible.
Yeah. I just wanted to get a picture on growth beyond FY 2027. I get that you said that FY 2027 will be a muted year. FY 2028 onwards, we can see a ramp-up in revenue and profit, because the exclusivities are losing and everything. I just wanted to get a better picture that what kind of medicines are coming up, what therapeutic areas, and most importantly, have we already filed for them or are the exclusivities just ending until that period and we'll file for them at that point and the verdict will only be known after that? If you could give us a picture.
Okay. Let me answer that question. Basically, we made a small mistake, so I just want to correct that before we answer your question. Our sub-revenue last year was INR 730 crore, not INR 500. Regarding your question about what pipeline we have. We can't name which exclusivity is going to happen which year, because a lot of these are bound by confidentiality. We can only disclose them closer to the launch. What I can tell you confidently is that we have some exclusivities will get triggered in the financial year 2027/2028, and we also have some launches in Brazil and Canada in both 2027 and 2028, which will drive earnings. Both U.S., Brazil, and Canada will drive our earnings. All three markets will drive our earnings. You will see the sub-revenues from INR 730 grow dramatically.
You'll also see exclusivity revenue coming from the US. I can't name it, so I thought that portion I've answered. I think how much do we see bump in our earnings? I mean, that's the question. I'll be better able to predict with time. I think we see that our earnings should compound around 15%-25% every year, starting from 2028. 2027 will be our base year where we'll settle around INR 770. From there onwards, we'll be compounded growing around 15%-25%, depending on the level of exclusivity and how much market share we get. I think you'll see a more stable compounding growth rather than the one-offs that you have seen in the past, henceforth, the next two, three years.
Okay. The second question is on the South African business that we made an investment in recently. I get that in our overall portfolio, it helps us diversify our revenues also and everything. But from the business perspective, what is the value that NATCO adds for them? If you could give us a picture.
Which investment? I'm sorry, I didn't catch. Which company?
The South African investment that we had made.
Okay. Adcock you're saying, right?
Yeah.
Basically, if you look at the world, there are about 10 to 15 markets that you need to be present to be successful. Right now, our position in Adcock is about 35%. Hopefully, over a period of time, we'll be able to increase our shareholding and then when a major shareholder gives us an opportunity. I think that's the arrangement that we have. You've got to look at these things strategically. You can't look at them in terms of we're only getting a seat through only on 35%. You're a number two company in South Africa. To build a company like that overnight in South Africa wouldn't have been possible without the acquisition. In a competitive generic environment like ours, it's very difficult to grow organically. You have to grow inorganically.
Unless you do these bold acquisitions, you're not able to acquire share and size and scale. This business now is all about scale. You need to be present in those eight or 10 countries, have a filing in multiple countries, and able to get scale. You might get wrong in one or two markets, but there'll be some market that will work, and then it'll give you the ROI on your investment. The pipeline is going to get more competitive, and this is the only way you can build. To get share on these new markets, you have to do an acquisition. If you start from scratch, we've seen in Brazil, now we're making money, but it's a 10-year journey. I think you have to wait that long. I think if you want to jumpstart things, you need to buy, otherwise things won't happen.
Okay. If I could reason, second one question. What is the outlook for South African pharmaceutical market, in your opinion? Let's say the growth outlook for the next five years. Also, let's say it's five years later. I know this is a very futuristic question, five years later, at a profit level, what is the contribution we think that the investment would contribute to? Let's say, can we expect something around 15%-20%?
Of our earnings, you're saying? Right now, if you normalize our earnings this quarter, I think it's about. South Africa represents about 22% of our earnings right now, of our base earnings. There are two things, my friend. One is that we always were very U.S.-focused. What we're doing deliberately now is trying to build a diversified portfolio in Brazil, Canada, India, and U.S. so that we can get earnings which are more diversified, which is what we have achieved through the acquisition. Two, we're doing a lot of new initiatives in terms of filing new products, our oncology pipeline, GLP, and all. The benefit of that, we are able to see over a period of two, three years. Right now, the return that we're getting is probably only slightly better than bank interest.
Over a period of time, you'll see the benefit where we'll able to see about 15%-20% return on capital or even more. It will take time, but you have to play this patiently.
Okay. Thank you. That's it from my side.
Thanks. Thanks for calling.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Sudhanshu from Marcellus Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Hi, am I audible?
Yes.
My first question is regarding the other expense increase on a quarter-on-quarter basis. It's a steep jump, and as was explained some time ago, it's primarily being driven by R&D spends. Just wanted to know what is driving this surge in R&D spends. Is it like imminent launch, which is leading to filing expenses and other things? Secondly, is it going to be a recurring rate at which this expense is expected?
There are two parts to the question. See, you can't time your R&D expenditure. When you start a project, you have to pay. Any R&D expenditure you do is a very long-term investment. Nothing happens within six months or eight months. They all happen four years, five years, seven years. You're investing for the future. In terms of the expense this particular quarter, I think part of it is R&D, part of it also is we had an inventory write-down of certain storage and spares. We had a one-time write-down. I think that was the reason it happened. In terms of R&D expenditure next year, I think we expect to spend about 7%-9%. In terms of earnings, we have already budgeted that, and I think our forecast assumes this expenditure.
You might have one quarter where you'll have higher expense, one quarter you might have higher profit, but if you normalize it over a year, I think all the expenses are baked in and the profit is after that.
Understood.
Okay.
The second question is, there is a corresponding surge also in the other income head. What is the reason on quarter-on-quarter basis other income is rising?
That typical other income typically tends to be I'll tell you what the other income items are. Typically there's interest income, there's PLI income and licensing fee when we do product licensing. In that particular quarter, we had some licensing income for the India launch of semaglutide, and then we had some other licensing income that we got from foreign partners. These are all cyclical depending on an event.
Understood.
Specifically asking for this quarter, these were the major incomes.
Got it. Rajeev, one question, which is basically regarding the semaglutide launch in India. You were there in the pen market, I think in the vial market, not in the pen market. How has been the outcome so far versus your initial expectation, both in terms of the market size that you are seeing, which is forming up and evolving daily, and your own performance, company's own performance in that addressable market?
It's been a very competitive launch. I'll be honest with that. We couldn't launch on day one on the pen, for logistical reasons. We launched it a month later.
Yeah.
Pen, we're getting some share, but we're doing better with the vial than the pen. Fortunately, vial, we are the only generic in the market. With our partners, ERIS and Glenmark, we're able to get very good share.
Understood.
The run rate now, our brand is doing about INR 2 crores a month. Our partners, I think our sale, if you see, you will be having about INR 4-INR 5 crore bump in our earnings, including our partners. You can say semaglutide has added about INR 4 crores a month on our sale.
A one-time launch quantities and all. Where do we see this number? We're thinking that we should be able to do about INR 75-INR 100 crores annualized over the year. Will we be able to achieve it? This is what our expectation is. The market has been super competitive. I think we got a reasonably good start, and we're able to disrupt the market. Still the market, in terms of sale, it's still with the pen. The proposition on the vial is this, okay. The pen sells for, normalized between INR 3,000-INR 4,000. The vial sells for less than INR 1,000. There's a market who's unwilling to pay INR 3,000-INR 4,000, is willing to pay only INR 1,000 for one. That market, we're able to capture. There's a play for everyone in every market, but I think that's our expectation.
That's where we are.
If I can ask one more question.
Sure.
-some time.
Fine.
In last couple of calls, you had mentioned about company looking at a few more acquisitions. If you have got any update on that front, how or if any target has been identified?
We are running couple of transactions, but again, nothing has come to a stage where I can tell you something.
Understood.
These are always ongoing negotiations. When they come to a stage where we can announce, we'll definitely speak about it. If the question is, are we working on transactions? Yes, we are working on transactions. Two, are we comfortable doing a transaction? Absolutely, yes. We can do it. Anything that will strategically strengthen our core business and build our geographical distribution. At this time, I have nothing to report. Thanks.
Got it.
Thanks a lot.
Wish you all the best.
Thanks.
Thank you.
All the best.
Thank you. Before we take the next question, a reminder to all, you may press star and one to ask a question. We have the next question from the line of S. Ram, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. I'm audible?
Yeah. Go ahead.
Any updates on NRC-2694, sir? When do you see it commercializing?
I think it's too early stage, my friend. At this time, I have nothing much to report.
Okay, sir. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Anirudh, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hello, sir. Good evening. Are we looking to increase our innovative portfolio with NRC-2694? Are we planning for any other innovative pipelines ahead?
That's the only active one that's running in our internal company pipeline. The other ones, primarily, the biggest one that we have done is we've done an INR 8 million investment in eGenesis. That is probably the most exciting of our innovative pipeline. You've probably seen the news. They are the first company in the world which has done a genetically fortified pig kidney, which was transplanted into human being. They have done two patients so far, and the patients were able to do well for about six months, and then finally they got this. They're trying to figure out what the right dose is in terms of the immunosuppression so that could take the program forward. This is probably the most exciting one, and this will stay main progress as we go along. In addition to kidney, they're also looking at liver as this time.
I think if you're specifically asking me most advanced of our, what do you call, innovative pipeline, that's probably that investment. I think that's the most exciting one.
Awesome. Are we planning for completing the acquisition in FY27 or is it going to be extended to FY28?
Acquisition, you're saying? I think we're shopping. I think, hopefully we're able to close something in financial year 2027. As I said, these things, until it's done, it's not done. I think if the question is, are we shopping? Yes. Are we hoping to close something? Yes. Have we closed anything yet? No. I think that's where we are. Yeah. Thanks. Thanks, Anirudh.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of [Khalid Mohammed] from Nirmal Bang. Please go ahead.
Hi. Yeah. Hi. I just wanted to ask if you have any tentative milestones for eGenesis business?
Tentative milestones?
Yeah.
I think once they start doing more patients, and then once they get an idea of what the right immunosuppression dose is. I think one thing is clear, the fact that the transplant works and the patients are able to do well for about six months itself is a very monumental achievement. I think the scheme of things, if you just think, that you're able to transplant an animal kidney and put that in a human and the human being is able to do well for a few months is absolutely monumental.
The question now is: What's the right immunosuppressant dose which will make it work? I think it's a question that they're grappling with. If they have an answer to that question as we keep dosing more patients, I think then we have a breakthrough. I think that's the question they are trying to answer. That only time will answer it.
Do you see that happening in over three years, five years, anything?
I think they're trying to recruit more patients. I think my understanding is that they're going to do more transplants in the coming year. I think in the next 12 to 18 months, I think we'll see more transplants, and then they'll have greater experience, in terms of what's the right way to handle these patients. It's absolutely exciting work and it's absolutely breakthrough work, and this will change science in a big way. I'm personally very excited, these are all moon shots, as you know. These have reasonable amount of risk. If you get it right, that INR 8 million is worth a lot of money. I think that's very cool. Okay?
Yeah. I share the but when do you see the shares coming to the top line? Like any timeline or what's the quantum that you think will impact the-
I can't tell you something that even I myself have no idea about. What I can tell you is, see, that's what happens with [audio distortion]. I think you need to understand that when you do these things, it's a binary event. Either you'll hit it or otherwise it won't happen. You just have to be patient and we'll give you patient updates based on whatever we hear. They also update their websites regularly and tell about all the major breakthroughs that are happening on the breakthrough events. We just have to be patient. Hopefully, in 12 to 18 months, they're able to get more breakthroughs which are more exciting, then I can come back and report to you. But we just have to be patient. That's all.
Got it. Thank you.
Thanks.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Neeraj Kiles, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, I wanted to ask you about our Crop Health Sciences division. I wanted to understand this division, the industry, if you can give any color on that and our business.
That's a good question. I think my colleague Rajesh will answer and he'll also tell us about our demerging processes. Rajesh, can you speak for a minute?
Yeah. Hi, Neeraj. As you're aware, so we're in the process of demerging the business, and one of the primary reasons we felt also it gives a more focused approach because the business, ultimately the customers are quite different. One of the key things we are pursuing, as part of our approach is, again, trying to find molecules which are a little differentiated from most of the other players. The approach that we've taken towards pharma, right, products which could be unique, which could be patent-controlled, limited competition. That's the approach that we're taking. We have slowly building on overall presence in the market, right? It's been only three, four years of our commercial presence, actually. The past two years has been mostly learning in terms of how the market works and all that.
We believe that once you have a very strong product, and with the right offering to the farmers, I think we can do wonders. In terms of sale, let's say this year we ended up close to INR 140 crore, right? As opposed to declared number for last year was about INR 60 crore. From INR 140, we certainly have aspirations to grow significantly well. It's also being driven by product launches as well as the penetration with the channels. Okay? The channel partners that we have, as compared to most of our peers, is still less. This is the primary. Both products, channels, and also the people addition. All these activities are going on. I think we're very confident going forward, and that's also one of the main reasons for demerging and having more focus on the business. Is that good?
Yeah. Thanks. That's all from my side.
Good. Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Rahul Chaudhary, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Sir, my first follow-up question is regarding the semaglutide pens. I don't see any media or advertisement about the pen launch. You said you've already launched it. Single dose or multi dose?
We launched the pen. When we did the announcement, what we said was we want to launch next month. I think we launched it, the vial, in March, and we said that we'll launch the pen in April. I think that's what we announced. Actually, when the launch happened, we didn't announce again. We thought it was covered in the earlier press announcement. We were not first launch, we were not there on day one. I think that's the reason why we didn't make so much noise. Typically, when you're day one, you make more noise and make the announcement. The vial was on day one, that's why we made a little more noise about that.
Okay. Are we selling it through the digital pharma platforms? Sell like, I don't know, like Tata 1mg, PharmEasy.
Exactly, I don't know. I think they work with different channels. I think that some digital platforms are also selling our products. Again, they're all required prescription, they're not, so I think you know what the deal is.
I'm using Novelty, this is our rivals, and I'm a NATCO investor. I feel very sad when I have to buy that and I can't find NATCO's products here in Guwahati.
I understand. There are challenges with that as well though, I think. I think out of the products that we are having in the semaglutide portfolio, our vial has done better than the pen. I think clearly, I think that's where we had success.
Sir, just one last follow-up question. Sir, we are 100% in control of what we do. That is our company. We are going to have a pretty, what do I say, subdued year ahead.
Yeah, that's true. Yeah.
We have a lot of cash. Are we not at all open to buybacks at a certain price point?
No. You asked me a straight question, I'll give you a straight answer. No. I'll tell you a reason for that. It's because my personal belief is this cash should be used for an acquisition which will give us more long-term return. I think there are opportunities where we can diversify our portfolio and build a more strong global footprint company. It's the challenges that we have had. The last few years have been great, but they've been very, you know, because of our concentrated bets, I think we need to evolve into a more diversified bet as a firm, that gives you more stable earnings. For that, you need to do acquisitions. That's, I think, a bet, a superior use of our cash rather than buyback can also be considered at the right time, at this point, no.
My thinking is that let's spend money on acquisitions.
Sir, just for this acquisition that you are planning or targeting, you must have zeroed it down to a specific geography by now?
I can't answer that question now. We're looking at different deals. When it comes to a certain stage, we'll talk about it. Not at this time.
Okay. Is it within the country as well or all outside?
I'm actually very bullish outside India. I'm not bullish in India. I think valuations outside India are more reasonable compared to.
Okay. Thank you, sir.
Next caller.
Thank you. A reminder to all the participants, you may press star and one to ask a question. We have the next question from the line of Hrishikesh Patole from 360 ONE Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hi, am I audible?
Yeah, please.
Yeah. Quickly, this question is to Rajesh. Given the Russia-Ukraine war and the subsequent cost inflation, what would be the impact on our agri-chem business? We have seen lot of peers in the agri-chem, specialty chemical business talk about.
The impact on what? Can you please repeat the question?
I mean now though.
The war, impact on what do you mean the business, impact on the agri-chem business. Is it? Yeah. Well, see, one of the things which Rajeev also mentioned earlier, the input material costs are going up, right? We are already seeing 25%-30% increase in the input raw materials. See, I think even industry, fortunately, most of the procurement for the kharif, at least half of the procurement has already been done.
With that inventory preexisting, we are able to still manage at a price. Going forward, it is uncertain. I think there's likely increases of prices as well. We are closely monitoring the market and the competitive behavior as well before we make our decisions.
I think pharma is a little more different. Okay, I just want to clarify that. Pharma, I think, even though there's been increase of some inputs, we have reasonable amount of inventory, so the impact of that you'll not see in the June and the August quarter. You might see it in the later part of the year. The exchange and depreciation was sort of kind of offset some of the increase or raw increases. I think net-net there is an impact, but at least the export business has been relatively less impacted than the domestic business.
I think anybody who's doing export, relatively, the impact has been less compared to the people who have exposure to outright domestic business. The agriculture business will have more impact because the exposure is high on domestic sales. I think as a principle, I'd like to tell you that export business is definitely less impacted.
Sure. Thank you. Just to follow up on that, have we commenced your exports?
For agro business has less, very small. Mostly it's domestic.
Yeah.
Predominantly domestic only.
Okay. My question was just as an update on the plant status. Can you just provide an update on all the plants?
You're breaking up. Plant status, you're talking about the.
U.S. FDA. U.S FDA status of all the plants.
U.S. FDA. Okay. We have four U.S. FDA facilities in our system. We have two API plants and two finished dosage factories. In the year 2025, we had inspections in three of them. In Kothur, which is our formulation facility, Chennai, which is our API facility, and Mekaguda, which is our API. All three got inspected, and all three got cleared, and we got EIRs. Vizag is a facility that has not had inspection, I think, in a long time. We're expecting an inspection sometime this year, any moment. Vizag is the only one which is pending. Otherwise, the other three has been inspected in 2020, the last financial.
Thank you. That's all from my side.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Aditya, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Thank you so much for the opportunity, ma'am. Am I audible?
Yes, you are. Go ahead.
Sir, I would like to ask the question that you have planned many expansions in foreign countries. What would be the gestation period of that, and when can we see the returns on the P&L?
I think Brazil we are seeing right now. Canada has been stable. U.S., we just bought a front-end about a few years ago. Still it's losing money, so hopefully this year we're able to break even. South Africa, we just invested. The value of that will take about, I think in my personal view, it will take about three, four years before we start seeing value over there even. Every business is going through a different phase. Indonesia is still losing money. We want to catch up. I think, see, if you start from scratch, it takes five to seven years to build a business. If you buy something, then it takes probably two to three years before you start seeing an outcome. Everything is a very long gestation period, because just the regulatory approval on a product takes two, three years.
I think that's how the cycle works in our business.
Sir, just a follow-up question. We are doing this as a strategy for U.S. plus other countries, right? To diversify the whole portfolio and not be dependent on tariffs, not be exposed to tariffs.
I think if you look at our earnings today, I think our earnings primarily come from four markets, India, U.S., Brazil, Canada, and now South Africa through our associates. I would say five countries. Stand corrected, five countries. Earlier it used to be only U.S. Now we have five. The earnings, now these five countries are giving the base profitability now. I think that's a pretty good diversification that we have done. Didn't happen overnight. When we're saying that this event is like this, it has been about the last six years of diligent investment and in R&D and filings and market access and launches and manufacturing. We're seeing the fruits of that as this time.
Okay. Sir, this is last question from my side.
Yes.
Over the last years, we have seen stupendous margins, about 40%-50%. Do you see that as being stable or be it contracting or expanding in the future years?
I think we've given guidance. I think this year it's going to decline. As I said, there'll be a dip in our earnings this year. Last year, I mean March, obviously we did about INR 4,000 crores PAT, as you're aware. It's going to drop by half. I think there we will see a contraction for sure. We're going to drop to about INR 700, INR 750 this year. Things work that around. As of now, yeah, to answer your question, yes, there'll be a dip.
This was all from my side, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Sure.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Manohar, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Sir, am I audible?
Yeah, please go ahead.
Sir, my question is that, is there any chance the company will get a sustainable and stable profits in the future? We cannot endure this roller coaster like revenues and profit dips.
See, Manohar, let me answer this in a way that you're comfortable. See, the nature is you need to accept a certain business are roller coasters. I think our, what do you call, communication has been very clear that you're going to have couple of good years, then you only have one or two years where it's going to dip. That's the nature of this business.
I can't come and tell you when you have the upside, the upside is very strong and you have extraordinary amount of margins. When things dip, normalize, you're not going to have. That's the nature of this business. I think as an investor you need to sort of accept that they're going to have this roller coaster, right? What I can do, the best thing I can do, Manohar, is tell you that this is a roller coaster, right?
This is how you need to pair your expectation. This is how it's going to be. I'm sorry I don't have a better answer to that question, but that's how it's going to be. However, having said that, I've been very cognizant about avoiding volatility, and I think that's why we have done all these investments like South Africa and will do front-end in Brazil. Still, in spite of the volatility, we're able to maintain a pretty good profitability. We're doing about whatever we projected this year. It is the way it is. Yeah. Okay. Thank you.
Another question is that I have been following this NATCO company and you for more than two years from now, and you have been very honest with your answers. Is there any chance or your intentions or plans to become NATCO to be a Dr. Reddy's or a Sun Pharma-like company?
I always aspire for that, Manohar. I always believe that. Thing is, see, true success only comes if you're willing to play the game for the long haul. I'll give you a very honest answer. If you want great things to happen in the next five years, you got to invest for the long term, which means you need to have the ability to ignore short-term earnings volatility. Because when we're investing in something, we need to believe that this investment will work and it'll take three, four years for it to pay off. I believe we can build a global company.
I think that journey has already started, and I think our investment in Adcock proves that to you. I think if you look at Adcock and NATCO's turnover together, I think this year we have passed almost touching more than $1 billion in revenue. I think in that sense, we've really built a global company and all with very modest amount of money that we have had. We're able to build these jackpots and use this money to buy these assets. I think you just have to be patient. You're going to have one or two years of difficulty, but in the long run, we'll be able to build a stable business. Thank you. Next call.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Nitin Agarwal from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, Rajeev. If you can hear me. Rajeev, for the year, if you can just give us a sense on how many filings and all have you done on the R&D side. Any good filings that have happened, and how are you looking for the R&D part for R&D program for the next year?
I think we've done about seven to eight filings in the U.S. Really good ones. We didn't hit any major first filings. Hopefully, this year we are trying another eight, nine. We're trying to target couple of complex and first filings. Hopefully, we'll have one or two this year. I think that's our expectation.
I just want to just to probe it further, the fact that this year you didn't have any major filings, and that is a consequence of what? I mean, some programs didn't play out as you expected or just higher competition than what you expected at the filing stage?
Just more competition. See, generally, Nitin, the product that we file and they're like seven or eight guys, we just don't talk much about it because it is a commodity filing. The only special ones are the ones where you're going to be the only one or there's limited amount of competition. U.S. is a winner takes all game, right? Especially if you're doing an NCE-1 , chances are most products you have eight or 10 or 15 or 20 guys who file on day one. So those, there's not much. So where do you make money? You have to file where nobody else files, or two, you identify something where nobody has filed and suddenly you file, and you're the first to file. So those are very few and far between.
If you're able to pull off in a three to four year time period, if you're able to pull off even three of those, you've done a great job. I think you just have to be patient, Nitin. I think we are on the ball. I think hopefully we'll pull off another two, three. We've pulled off enough. I mean, look at our pipelines there in our investor presentation. We have FTF on, we have approval in 30 months. We have olaparib. Hopefully, we'll have 30 months on that. Sorry, exclusivity on that subject to FDA clearance. Then we have filings of semaglutide. I mean, we have filings we have seen in the pipeline. We have carfilzomib and we have FTF, [audio distortion] then we have FDF.
We have some, and I think hopefully we'll be able to build a pipeline for another three or four. We have something to talk about for the next seven to eight years.
Right. Secondly, if you can give us some more sense on the size of the businesses in Brazil and Canada, and how do you see Brazil, Canada, and some of these other emerging markets, non-U.S. markets playing out for you going forward?
What I can do is, I think our Brazil turnover of ourselves this year was about INR 257 crore, plus then we have some billing directly from India, maybe that is about INR 30 crore. I don't collect the number, but INR 280 crore. We are expecting that business should go to $55 million-$60 million this year. That is one big bump we are seeing in our numbers. Canada, which we are expecting will grow around 10%-15%, is already a fairly comfortable business. We have a couple of big launches, but that's in 2027, 2028, not in 2026, 2027. That's one. Obviously, South Africa is going to get added. I think that's where. I think these are the major ones that I'll drive.
Sorry, what size did you say that Canada was this year?
Canada this year is INR 229 crores.
Okay. Thank you so much.
Thank you so much. Thank you.
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Anirudh, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hello, sir. Thank you for providing the opportunity again. You mentioned that from FY 2028 we'll be seeing growth. Can we expect the approval for those cancer pipelines that we are planning to launch in Canada and Brazil by H2 of calendar year 2027?
I think, which, the products we're going to launch in 2027, 2028, when are we expecting approval? Is that the question?
Yeah. When are we expecting the approval for those medicines? Is it within the H2 of FY27?
Yes. H2 of financial year 2026, 2027, we're expecting approval. Based on that, we expect the earning impact will be in 2027, 2028.
Oh, got it. My second question is, what is the expected revenue contributions from those medicines that we are launching in Canada and Brazil?
I think the expectation is that, we have already spoken about Brazil should do very well this year. I think we have said that we did about little less than INR 300 crore this year. Brazil, that will go to probably $55 million-$ 60 million this year. That's our expectation. That is the biggest bump that we're seeing. In terms of revenue-wise, we're not splitting, but what we are saying is that we will see our earnings settle around INR 700 crore-INR 750 crore this year, and we are expecting 2027, 2028 based on our pipeline that we'll be able to grow around 15%-25% compound year.
Thank you for the answer, sir.
Thank you.
Yeah.
This is my last question, and the next caller will be my last question. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. We will take the last question from the line of [Khalid Mohammed] from Nirmal Bang. Please go ahead.
Yes. With the acquisitions that I'm seeing and the strategy that NATCO is going to take for the longer term, like you mentioned, more stable revenues and earnings, right? Going ahead, what sort of stake do we see in, say, the jackpot kind of business and the stable kind of business? If you could throw some light on that.
This year is all driven by the base business. We don't have any big launches this year.
No, not this year. In the next five years, that sort of timeline.
I think some of the exclusivities will kick in. I think the biggest one obviously, is semaglutide. I can't tell you which year, where we're expecting launch because they're all bound by competition.
No, I mean the acquisition that we have done, that is to bring more stability, right?
Correct.
NATCO's legacy is a jackpot kind of place, if you get me, right?
Yeah. Okay, sure.
In that sense, where do you see NATCO in the next five years?
I think in the next five years, our vision is that we are able to build a global company which has more geographical diversification and bring less volatility in our earnings. Having said that, if you look at the business today, if you don't have those special complex filings, your earnings are not coming. There's no earnings. If you look at any of our top companies, I don't speak for myself, I speak for any of the top tier companies. If you remove the first wave generic launch or the complex generic out, the earning contribution of these products is representing about 50%-60% of the earnings or 70% earnings, depending on which company you're talking about. I think what we can strive to do is to bring about less volatility in earnings.
Let's say in an ideal world, I would want our base revenue to contribute 70% of our profit and the first to file or special product to contribute 25%-30%. Earlier, the ratio was the other way around. I think that's what we're trying to correct so that we can bring less volatility. I think that is the objective in the next five years.
Got it.
Does that answer your question? Yeah.
Yes.
Thank you. Thank you, everyone. Thank you so much. Thank you all.
Thank you very much. On behalf of 360 ONE Capital Markets Private Limited, we conclude this conference. Thank you, everyone, for joining with us today, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.