Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the earnings call of National Aluminium Company Limited, NALCO. Post declaration of the financial results of quarter and nine months, ended December 2025, hosted by Systematix. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes.
Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on a touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Shweta Dikshit from Systematix. Thank you, and over to you, ma'am.
Thank you. Good evening, everyone. On behalf of Systematix Group, we welcome you to the Q3 FY 2026 and nine months FY 2026 earnings conference call of National Aluminium Company Limited. I would like to thank the management for giving us the opportunity to host this call. I now hand over to Mr. Bharat Sahu, Company Secretary, NALCO, to discuss the company's financial and operational performance for the third quarter and nine months, FY 2026. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, ma'am. Namaskar, good evening. Warm greetings from National Aluminium Company Limited, Navratna CPSE, under the Ministry of Mines. I take pleasure in introducing the NALCO team in today's post-earning call. The team is headed by Sri Brijendra Pratap Singh, Chairman and Managing Director, Sri PK Sharma, Director, Production, Tapas Kumar Pattanayak, Director, HR, Sri Abhay Kumar Behuria, Director, Finance, and Sri AK Singh, our newly inducted Director, Commercial. Today, NALCO registered a landmark result for the quarter and nine months, ended December 2025, after the board took note of the results in the board meeting held today.
A presentation in this regard is already uploaded in the website and also in the stock exchanges, NSE and BSE. Now I will request our CMD, sir, to kindly highlight the results and the outlook of the company in the coming days. Over to you, sir.
Good evening. Good evening to you all. Today, we have declared our Q3 and up to Q3 results, as far as our performance, physical and financial performance.
Both we have recorded best ever physical performance in Q3 and also up to Q3, and also best ever financial performance up to Q3, and also physical performance. If you see the growth, as compared to 2024-25, the growth which we have recorded up to Q3, that is nine months, 2024-25, if you compare with this, year 2025-26, nine months. Income side, we have a growth of 13% and expenditure, in spite of our increase in income by 13%, our expenditure has increased by only 6%.
EBITDA margin has increased by around 20%, and PBT has increased by 25%. This is a nine-month comparison. Volumes of production has increased by 20% in alumina and metal by 3.5%, and sales of alumina has increased by 45% and metal by around 5%. This is the first nine-month performance, if you see. If you see quarter-to-quarter performance, our volume has increased by around 4%-5% in terms of hydrate production, metal production, and our metals, our alumina sales and metal sales have also increased by around 20% and 5%.
So there has been a strong both physical and financial performance, and main reason of this physical and financial performance has been the increase in the volume of production. We have increased the volumes of production. If you see the increase in the revenues, our revenues has increased by around INR 2,000 crore, nine months revenue, as compared to previous nine months last year. Out of that INR 2,000 crore, the contribution of alumina is around INR 1,600 crore and metal around INR 410 crore.
Price has a negative impact of around INR 871 crore, where alumina prices fell by from around $562 to around $385 this year, average. And there was a negative impact of INR 1,652 crore, but metal prices has increased, which has given us a positive impact of INR 781 crore. That is, increased from $2,538 to $2,867.
We have increased our revenues, and our expenditure has not increased that much, and that has increased by only INR 500 crore. That is, this is a nine-month figure total. We have saved, saved in power and fuel. The power which we imported last year was on the low, lower side. The saving in the power and fuel was around INR 142 crore. Employee cost has also gone down by around INR 118 crore. The performance, nine-month performance, has been very good.
Quarter-to-quarter, if we compare the quarter results, Q3, Q3, this year Q3 and last year Q3, if we compare, the income has increased by around INR 200 crore, and the expenditure has not increased that much, only around INR 60-INR 70 crore expenditure increase has been there, and the profitability has increased from INR 2,121 crore to INR 2,131 crore. That is the PAT. The main contribution and the main contributing factor has the increase in the volume of production.
In spite of reduction in the prices of alumina, our profitability, we were able to maintain because of increase in volume and better efficiencies, that is the improvement in techno-economic factors, that is caustic soda consumption, CP coke consumption. Of course, some techno-economics were not very good, but these two major techno-economics have been there.
We are working on that, and further, we are working on increasing the volumes of production, maximizing our efficiencies, which is in our hand, and operating the plant in a proper manner so as to maximize our profitability. Thank you.
Ma'am, ma'am, we may now invite questions from our esteemed participants.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. First question is from the line of Amit Lahoti from Emkay. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations on a good set of numbers. My first question is on alumina contract. Operator, your line is echoing. Can you please check?
Sure, sir. Just a minute. Management, I think there is an echoing from your end. Could you please check?
In fact, we are doing the option.
Mr. Amit, you can please go ahead.
Sure. My first question is on alumina contract. In Q3, how much alumina shipments were linked to LME, and how much were spot sales? And, what is the spot versus contract mix in Q4?
Okay, that is the only question? Some other question?
Yeah, so that was the first question.
Okay. You want me to answer it?
Yes, please.
Q3, each month we have done around four shipments, all the months, and we had three shipments in spot and one shipment in LME in Q3.
Okay, and all were of same quantity?
Yes, sir. three shipments, all shipments are of 30,000 tons. On an average, we do four shipment per month. We have done almost on an average, four shipment. And out of it, one was on a term basis, that was on basis of LME, and all the rest of the three were spot.
For Q4, is it going to be the same mix, 75, 25?
Almost, almost same mix. One shipment we have for LME, and the rest is for spot.
Right. As a follow-up to this, have we started signing long-term contracts for the new refinery?
New refinery, we'll be starting the commissioning process in June, and taking around two to three months to finally three to four months to stabilize it. We are expecting that around with 300,000 tons of alumina producing from there from this year onwards. So we are trying to have some long-term contract, one year or maybe two years. We'll be going in, some interested parties are also there.
Middle East, some parties have approached us for long, long-term contract, that is one year, two years, three years. We will be floating some tenders. If we get better offers, we will be going for it. It only depends on what offer we are getting.
Right. Got it. And my second question is on critical minerals. There were some news articles indicating that we are looking to extract critical minerals from alumina red mud that we end up producing. So what is the plan there, if you could indicate any sort of timelines for visibility of this project?
As far as extraction of critical minerals from red mud is concerned, we are in the process of, we are having one MoU with NML Jamshedpur, where they are, we are in the process of setting up a pilot facilities for making the methodologies for extraction of rare earths from the critical minerals. Already, they will be taking around one and half to two years to set up this whole technology. The another is we have one party from Chennai, which, in which we have done the MoU. They are, they have set up their reactor in our mines, and they have taken some of the samples of red mud.
They are into the process. Already they are doing some experiments and all that, but results have not come till now. They are also, they, they will be extracting some critical minerals. The third is, we are not, that is not from red mud, that is from Bayer liquor. We are having one MoU with BARC, where they are setting up pilot plant. That is extraction of gallium from the Bayer liquor. These are the three projects which we are taking, but as of now, on commercial scale, we don't have any results. It's on the pilot scale. It will take around one to one half years to set up and get some results for the commercial scale extraction.
Right. Okay. Fine. Thank you so much. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Aditya Welekar from Axis Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for this opportunity. So my question is with respect to our alumina sales, volume. So in the last call, we have said that for full year fiscal 2026, we will achieve 1,300 KT. And, so far in the nine months, we are already at 1,100. So are we going to raise this, guidance of sales volume for alumina? In Q3, we have seen a very good jump in alumina sales.
In Q3, the sales was better, and our target of around maybe 12 lakh, 50 thousand or 13 lakh, whatever we are targeting. But this month, January, it has affected. There is a tension in Middle East, which is affecting our exports to Middle East. But this month, January, it was on slightly lower side, but February and March, we'll be trying to make up those losses that were done. But as per plan, maybe 12 lakh 50 thousand or 13 lakh, we'll be able to reach.
Okay. Understood. Understood. And the second question is with respect to the chemical, means alumina division profitability. Means, we have seen a drop in that. One part may be due to the, because of the fall in the alumina prices. But is there any, apart from the decline in alumina sales realization, is there any, inflation from the cost side, especially with respect to caustic soda, which has led to the drop in the EBITDA per ton for the chemicals division?
As far as alumina sales are concerned and the margins from alumina is concerned, of course, there has been reduction in the sales prices from around $580, it's gone down to around $380, first nine months if you compare. Caustic soda, we have improved on caustic soda consumption. The specific consumption, caustic soda, which is last year, which was around 121 kg, has come down to around 99 kg. There, we have got a saving. Of course, the prices have increased, increased, from around INR 39 to, I think, 45.
45.
45
Impact is around -INR 82 crore.
INR -82 crore. But overall impact is not there because we have-
There is a saving in INR 129 crore efficiency.
Because we have saved on the efficiency, we have improved our performance. There is a saving of around INR 129 crore on caustic soda. That is the thing which we have negated the increase in the prices by reducing our consumption. But of course, the prices of alumina, which has gone down, that is only affecting us.
Understood, sir. Yeah. That's it from, I'll get back in the queue. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pinakin from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you very much, sir. Many, many congratulations for what is a record quarter, and it looks like this records will continue given the aluminum prices are. So my first question is: What would be the blended alumina realization for the company? If we just do the math of segment revenue divided by production volume, it comes to around INR 28,864. Would that broadly be correct?
You are talking about realization?
Yes, sir. Yes, sir.
Alumina realization. Yes, yes, realization, whatever we will be getting, that will be somewhere around $320 or $310 average in Q4.
At this point of time, sir, it looks like this will be the realization trend which will continue in fourth quarter as well?
Similar will be continuing in the fourth quarter. We are expecting not more than $310 or $320.
Understood. Sir, what is aluminum cost of production this quarter, and how did it change versus the September quarter?
Our alumina cost, if you take calcined alumina. Alumina.
Alumina.
You are talking about aluminum or alumina?
Alu-aluminum, sir.
Aluminum, sir.
Aluminum. Our cost range, INR 150,000-INR 160,000, and in between that 10,000 range, somewhere it is INR 155,000, INR 156,000, somewhere it is INR 153,000, and the average cost is coming around within that range only.
Understood. Sir, what is the outlook for cost? Do you expect that to remain stable or move lower?
Q4, our costs will increase slightly because our CP Coke cost has gone up. Caustic soda costs has, costs have whatever we have tendered and ordered in December, the costs have gone up. So Q4, cost will slightly go up. It's still to calculate. It will overall depend on the efficiencies and our specific consumption.
But the prices have increased around, I think, INR 7,000-8,000.
Which one?
CP coke.
CP.
Though there is a negative impact on price because we are going to bear that burden, we are improving our techno-economic front also to take care of that additional cost, which will be coming in the fourth quarter through increase in price of input prices. So there will be not much impact on our total costs.
Understood. And sir, my last question is: There is a meaningful decline in employee cost on a quarter-on-quarter basis. What drove it, and when would you need to start making provisions for the next series of wage hikes?
There are two aspects for this cost reduction. If you compare with the CPI of, last year, corresponding period of last year, last year, around INR 300 have 300 numbers of employees have been superannuated and the recruitment of this year is not commensurate with that return. So that is one of the advantage. Second, we have made some accounting provision towards our PRP, which is not required now, because we have calculated actual calculation and, whatever excess, provision we have made, we have withdrawn this quarter, this quarter three.
There is also around INR 50 crore that is impact. Okay, another INR 118 crore is total reduction of employee cost if you compare with the corresponding period of last year. 50 crore on account of that accounting provision and another because of reduction in the manpower real cost, but that is superannuation of the manpower.
Got it. And sir, about the provisions that you will need to make for the next wage bill, when should we expect, June 26 quarter or later?
That is, for ours, I think it will be from first January 2027, then we'll make it, because this is the 2026. This year we don't require, because our price, pay revision due on first January 2027.
Got it. Got it. Thank you very much, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pallav Agarwal from Antique Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening, sir, and, congratulations on the good results. You know, so the first question was, you know, clarification on the aluminium COP. So this, you know, figure of INR 152,000-INR 160,000, so this is on an integrated basis, right? With captive alumina, just to clarify that.
Pardon? Yes, yes, this is on the captive alumina. Whatever alumina prices we are manufacturing cost what we are.
We are transferring the alumina to our smelter plant on cost.
On cost, okay. The second one was on, you know, how has been the trend of domestic, you know, premiums? I think we sell most of our aluminum in the domestic market. So how has been the LME and physical premiums been, you know, on the third quarter?
The premiums actually totally depends on the LME. Last year, our average LME was around $2,500, but this year, average LME we are getting is around $2,800.
Okay.
More than 28. So there has been a $300, around $300-$340 dollar increase in the LME, which is giving us a better premium. But as far as, the premium from ingot to wire rod is concerned, last year we were getting better. Ingot to wire rod premium last year was around INR 10,000. We were getting around INR 6,000-INR 7,000 only. So, overall, there is increase in LME, so that is giving us a better premium.
So, what is the right way to look at this? Is it like linked to the MJP, or is it like a percentage of the LME, you know, or is it on a per ton basis? What is the right way to look at the premiums?
I'd like to look at it as on the basis of LME, because our own pricing, all whatever we are doing is on the basis of LME.
Sure, sir.
On the basis of whatever MJP is there, some kind of sometimes we have to give some discounts and all that to anyone MJP.
We have a pricing policy where we take LME as a base, and we add premium. As per your version, we take sometimes MJP premium. Then there is some modalities, fixation price. All factors is being taken care of while we do price. Our pricing mechanism, every three days, if the LME prices is crosses some limit, we do. So there is a transparent policy we have. We are adopting that.
Okay, and probably the import duty also of 7%.
See, that is a part of our policy. That policy, guideline is there. We follow by that. We'll go by that only.
Okay. Sure, sir. Also, sir, you know, can we look at any more savings on power and fuel, you know, for the fourth quarter? Our captive coal now will fully, you know, reach the four million tons of captive coal production.
Production already we have targeted four million ton, which we'll be reaching. We are going by that rate, and that is, as compared to last year, the savings will be there. The reduction in the procurement of coal from e-auction and the linkage coal, there will be reduction. And we are looking after that, up to Q3, the saving has been around maybe INR 30 crore, some or like something like that.
Q4 also, some saving will be there because, the effect is going down because the prices of linkage coal has also come down. And the difference at present, if you see the price difference between linkage coal and our captive coal is around INR 20-INR 200.
Yes.
INR 2-INR 50.
Because, after withdrawal of that, GST compensation cess, like INR 400 per ton, which is not being paid on the linkage coal. So our difference between the captive coal and, FSA coal, Fuel Supply Agreement, is around 300, 200-300 rupees.
Sure, sir. Okay, thank you so much.
Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rajesh Bhandari from Nakoda Engineers. Please go ahead. So Rajesh, kindly unmute your mic.
Is it. Can you hear me now? Can you hear me now?
Yes, yes.
Yes, we can hear you, sir.
Sir, congratulations for good numbers, good numbers. Sir, you just now mentioned about the coal mining, mining. So when we are having our own mines, when we are mining from our own mines, is that cheaper or taking from outside is cheaper?
Our own captive mines, the cost, landed cost at our, at our power plant, the difference between that coal and the, coal which we are taking from outside is around, difference is around INR 200-INR 250, depending on the source.
Which one is higher, sir? Which one is higher?
The coal which is, which we are taking from outside, our captive coal is cheaper around, by around INR 2.
Then why, why can't we have our own mine, sir?
We are.
All, all
Mines, and that the rated capacity of the mines is four million tons. So we are ramping the production of that mines up to four million tons this year, and we are in the process, maybe some more mines, in the coming times when we are going for expansion, we will be-
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. That's what I meant. Yeah. Okay. Okay. Sir, you said about red mud, some critical minerals. That is, that is right, and do we have any plan for new mining for the critical minerals, new mines, mines?
New mines for the critical mineral, whatever there is, that is one JV company, KABIL, is there JV of HCL and MECL, which is having 5 mines in Argentina, they have got. They have done.
Yes.
Non-invested exploration. Now, invested exploration is going on. Maybe it will take one and half years to get the results of this exploration, then we'll come to know the amount of lithium, that is a lithium mine.
Yes.
What level of commercial mining we will be able to do. Already mining.
Yeah, there.
Exploration.
There we will have our partnership?
Yes, yes. NALCO is around 40% share.
Okay, okay.
HCL and MECL is 30% to me.
Sir, [Foreign language] , alumina prices had gone down. When aluminum prices are high, why should alumina price go down, sir?
You see, there is an excess of alumina in the market. In Indonesia, two refineries has come up, and few-
Oh, oh.
Have closed down. Like o ne closed down, Iceland, one smelter. The smelting capacity has gone down. Mining capacity has come up more. There is an excess of Alumina in the market. That's why there is a price reduction, and the prices of Alumina solely depend on demand, supply.
Yeah, correct. This is going to remain forever?
Yes, yes. I don't know forever, but this year it's going to remain. If the smelting capacity is somewhere. But then, of course, Thailand and Indonesia, the smelting capacity is new, is supposed to come up maybe next year. It will look like t hat may be some reduction in t hey are now currently having excess of alumina, so some, with thing will, be taken care. But now, as of now, this year, the visibility is not there, the similar kind of price.
Another main reason is, in addition to same desire, China, their capacity s melting is around 60 million plus. So they are now capping their capacity 45. That is one of the reason when they will increase their production, it will automatically go up also. That we said there are.
China is also having the excess of alumina. [Foreign language] metal [Foreign language] capacity [Foreign language] , sir?
Already, already we are into process of it. We are already in the process of appointing one consultant for making DPR, and our roadmap is maybe this year, by maybe this year, June, July, August, we'll be finalizing the DPR After that, maybe 36 months, or we have made our roadmap, and maybe by end of December 2030 or maybe early first half of 2031, 2031, we have to add another 0.5 million-ton smelting capacity. That is the roadmap, and we are going at with it very aggressively.
Sir, one last question.
Sorry, 20 now?
Why the finance cost. Sir, only one question. Finance cost, why it has gone up so high, sir?
Which one?
Finance cost.
Finance cost.
Finance cost.
I think.
No, no, that is not the finance cost. Actually, kana, that is the one thing we have. We have made some settlement this, this quarter. There is an arbitration settlement. Okay?
Okay.
The interest component was, as per, in this, the interest component of the settlement will be put under finance cost.
Okay, okay.
Because yearly accounting adjustment only, okay?
Right. Thank you, sir. Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Manav from YES Securities Limited. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi, a very good evening, and thank you so much for the opportunity. So first of all, congratulations on the result. My first question is, so if we take a look at slide nine, where the company has mentioned the LME price trend, I just wanted to, you know, get a, get an outlook, because it's mentioned that LME prices are expected to average around $2,670 for aluminum for this particular year. So what is the management's view on the aluminum pricing trend going ahead?
You see, as of now, the LME is somewhere around $32.
$32.
$3,200. We were expecting to remain somewhere around $2,900-3,000, but it has increased, and the main reason which we are seeing is some reduction in supply, some smelters closing down, capacities of China's capacity cap and all that. So there is a, of course, demand-supply issue. So we are expecting this year, maybe this quarter, it will be somewhere around $3,000, it should remain $3,000 LME. And next year also, somewhere in between $2,900-3,000, $2,800-2,900. Average $2,900, we can expect that. But obviously, it will be more than $2,600.
Got it. Got it, got it. Yeah. So thank you so much. And second question is on the caustic soda, we have had savings of around about INR 129 crore. Could you give what was the landed costing for caustic soda on a per ton basis? You mentioned 45,000, right?
Landed cost of Caustic Soda was.
In the nine-month average, if you see, 2025, 2026, it was around $42,000, okay?
Okay.
For the next quarter, we have to check. The cost will go up to INR 45,000.
Fourth quarter of this year.
Got it, got it, got it. Sure. Thank you so much. I'll remember.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pratik Kothari from C.R. Kothari & Sons. Please go ahead. So Pratik, kindly unmute your mic. As there is no response, we'll move ahead. The next question is from the line of Vikas Singh from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir, and thank you for taking my question. Sir, my first question pertains to our alumina input to aluminum output ratio. Has it changed? Because if I just calculate two tons of alumina per ton of aluminum, so we have sold almost 80-85 KT higher than what would have been the residue left after the aluminum production. So could you just give us some insight into it?
You see, our volumes of production of alumina has been on the higher side. Alumina, that's why we have increased our alumina export. And aluminum, whatever aluminum we are making, around two tons of alumina is required per ton of aluminum. So, as per requirement, we send to the smelter. So whatever exports we are doing, because of the excess in the production, the volume of the alumina.
It is still two tons of alumina per ton of aluminum, right?
Yes, yes. One point.
1.9, around 1.92.
1.93.
1.93.
Noted, sir. Because there was some additional 80 KT you have sold it, over if you would have used this ratio. Fine.
Actually, what is happening is we have a storage capacity of around 75,000 tons in Vizag, around forty-five thousand tons in our refinery, and around one lakh tons in our smelters. So the storage capacities, what storage we have, that will determines the overall ratio. That is very important to see what was the storage capacity at the beginning of the year and what is the storage now. Okay?
Can I assume that we have depleted our storage capacity to a larger extent because there's 50-80 KT additional, which would have come from there itself?
No, no. That storage capacity, almost whatever, we had in the beginning of year, our stocks of alumina in the smelter, of course, in the beginning of year, the stock was around, somewhere around 15 days. Now we are nearing around 10-12 days, two to three days lesser stock in smelter is there. But as far as our, Damanjodi, all the silos are full. Vizag also, our stock is around.
60,000.
60,000. 60,000, 65,000, that is the average we maintain in the Vizag. Only Damanjodi, in our smelter, around 2-3 days stock means, that will be around, maybe around, 7,000-8,000. Now, 7,000-8,000. 8,000-10,000 stock, eligibility.
Noted, sir. Sir, my second question pertains to, basically, just clarification on the statement which we have made, that from the new alumina refinery, we said we are expecting 300,000 tons of the production next year. In our previous call, we were talking about roughly about 500,000 tons.
Yes, yes. Previously, we were telling.
So, it has anything changed, or timeline, or it has been delayed, something?
We'll be starting the commissioning. The total refinery capacity is around 10 lakh. So since we will be starting the commissioning in June, but it takes two to three months to complete the commissioning process, stabilize the production. Maybe after June, September, October, we'll be having maybe going to 60% level of the total rated capacity, and full capacity will be going to by around December. So, that's why we are taking a more realistic figure of 3 lakh. We can have somewhere in between 3-5 lakh, but to be more realistic, it will be around maybe 3 lakhs.
Noted. Sir, lastly, on our overall CapEx for this year and next year, and also what kind of employee cost addition we are expecting from next year due to wage revision, any provision which we have started to make or we will make in pursuance?
This year we are not having any wage revision. Whatever wage revision is, will happen, that will happen 27 onwards. The employee cost will be almost same this year also. Slightly reduction will be there due to retirement. We'll be having around 200.
200 .
200 to 50 superannuations. Whatever superannuations we are happening within the senior category people, so of course, there will be again, reduction of around maybe INR 100 crore or maybe INR 70-80 crore of reduction in employee cost, if you see, nine months or 12 months figure. This, there will be not any increase in due to wage revision impact. That will come from next year onwards.
Yeah. So on the next year, on the, w hat kind of wage revision, or just can you tell me what is the percentage of last time you were given the hike? And, is that hike has something to do with your profitability levels as well? If you have a higher profitability, so probably a higher wage hike you have to give, or it is non-impacted by the profitability?
Our wage revision is due from CPSE, it is from January 1, 2027 onwards, okay? So the next fiscal, 2026-2027, the impact will be well of 3 months. We'll be making provision or some guidelines when the government of India will form a committee for finalization of this wage agreement. Then we'll make some other provision for three months only, but that provision will not be enough, because our retirement and superannuation for 2026-2027 will be to a great extent, and the high wage people will be retired, and the induction will be at the lower level. So the overall, there will be no increase in the employee cost.
Noted, sir. Sir, CapEx figure for this year and next year, if any?
CapEx this year will be around INR 1,700. This financial year, what we are expecting is, wishing is INR 1,700, and next year, we are targeting around,
18,000.
INR 1,800 crore-INR 2,000 crore next year. But 2027 onwards, from next financial year onwards, it will increase.
Yeah, on the new smelting facilities.
Facilities. This year, or we do the ordering and all that by next year, April, May, April, May, 2024, 2027, 2028, that will increase.
Noted, sir. Thank you, sir, and all the best for future.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rajesh Majumdar from 360 ONE Capital. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir, and, congratulations on a very good achievement. Sir, my first question was, if you look at the alumina sales and if you extrapolate the revenue, the average realization for the quarter comes out to be about $380, and that you are saying for fourth quarter will become between $310-320. Is that correct?
Fourth quarter will be average $320.
This quarter is $380.
No, that was first nine months was INR 380.
Q3 it was.
INR 349 .
INR 349. Q3 was INR 349.
349. 380 was for nine months.
Nine months.
Okay, 3, 350. Okay, okay. Right. And, and what was the average exchange rate for the quarter?
Q3, Q3 exchange rate?
Yeah.
Q3.
Yeah.
Q3 exchange rate was average 87 No, sorry, 9 months it was 87, Q3, 89.
Okay. So my second question is on the power and fuel. We've seen a reduction this quarter, which will normalize or which should remain, like, what do you envisage of the annual power and fuel cost now, now that we are getting the coal from our blocks? What should the annual cost of power and fuel stabilize at?
The coming quarter, I think the fourth quarter, the power and fuel cost will be less than the third quarter, because third quarter, there is some problem. We have imported some power, so that has added up cost. But that will not happen in the next quarter because all our boiler and the is in the good shape, and we'll be managing maximum power through our internal generation only. So our-
So third.
Grid will be less about.
Third quarter, actually, there is a fall of INR 70 crore. You're seeing a further fall on that?
Pardon?
Third quarter, actually, there's a fall of about INR 70 crore from QQ. You're seeing further fall on that.
There is a reduction in INR 70 crore is saying.
Q2 to Q3 of current fiscal or compared to last year?
Yeah, Q3 over Q2, last Q2.
Last Q2.
Last Q2, because our inter-quarter , that is one reason is there, because the Q3, there is no impact of that sales, INR 400 coal sales, GST compensation cess. It has been withdrawn.
Okay.
That benefit we have got in the third quarter, because the withdrawn is July, September onwards, but that benefit-
Okay
In the third quarter, we have got, because both in the, so in, that is linkage coal. That is one of the major reasons.
Right.
Right.
Why is there a sharp jump in the operating expenses from INR 600 crore-INR 725 crore? How should we look at this going forward?
Operating expenses, if you see, that is increasing because increasing the volumes. Yeah.
Yes.
When the volumes are increasing, there will be increase.
Yes
In the consumption of raw material and all that. Just because of the increase in volume, the operating expenses has increased.
But if you compare with the revenue, the jump is not in that extent, because revenue has increased 13%, our cost as expenditure is only 6% in totality. So operating costs, so when you are increasing your volume, raw material consumption, other direct variable costs will automatically increase.
You see, last year our alumina production was 22 lakh 50 thousand. This year, our average alumina production rate is going to around 22 lakh 50 thousand. Maybe we will be reaching 23 lakhs. We will be doing around 2.5 lakhs more alumina this year. So of course, the raw material consumption and all that increases. Even metal production also will be around 10,000-12,000 more as compared to last year.
What is the LME premium, my last question, that you have got this year, this quarter on the metal?
This quarter, LME means Q3, you are telling?
Q3, yeah. Q3, yeah.
Q3, average LME was around $28. $28, yes. Around $28.
Premium, you are telling?
Premium, premium, premium.
Premium, premium.
Premium, we don't revise regularly because we have a pricing policy. We fix the premium once, and that is, inbuilt in our pricing policy itself. So we don't regularly revise that premium.
We fix it for once. So once it's fixed.
There is a policy mechanism. If you.
Our premium, our current premium, I think it is $60. It's around $60, August we fixed it.
Last quarter, my premium is we have got around $60. That is being part of our pricing policy.
That is part of pricing. Okay, sir. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sumangal from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening. Thanks for the chance. So first question is on alumina division. You said one shipment is sold, prices are fixed on LME. So this is, is this as a percentage of aluminium LME, we are selling alumina? Or this is, the Australia alumina FOB price index we are talking about?
LME. Whatever, LME, along with one shipment which we are doing, that is percentage of LME. Some shipments are on around 12%, some is around 11.5%, depend on the whatever tender prices we are getting.
Understood. Understood. And for FY 2027, also it is same ratio?
Yes, it is almost same. Whatever now term tender we are going, it is going on the lower side, because LME is increasing. LME is going to around 32, 33. It has gone maybe 30, more than 3,000, so the percentage is going down.
No, also for the LME link, volume, we are selling in the same proportion, one-fourth on LME link and-
It's almost average. One shipment we try to do on term and on, the shipment on spot.
Understood. Sir, we have also started selling in the domestic market. So what is the realization difference between domestic and exports in alumina division?
Realization, if you see domestic and export, is almost same. Not much difference.
No, no, there is a difference, hardly any difference of INR 1,000-INR 2,000 because of addition of that export incentive that we added. Export-wise, we added some additional incentive, which we'd have got hardly this quantity exported. So the price difference is not much. That is around INR 2,000.
INR 1,500.
INR 1,500.
Understood. Understood. And sir, when we are targeting 1.3 million tons volume for this year, we've sold 1.1 so far, so fourth quarter will be just 200,000 tons, right? Or we can actually destock more?
No, no. That will be around whatever we have planned, not more than that, around maybe 12.5-13. It totally depend on whatever the requirements are there, because the disturbance in the Middle East, that has affected our ports to Middle East in the month of January. We could do only two shipments. We're trying to increase the shipment in February and March, make up that. It will totally dependent how the conditions are there in the Middle East.
Understood. Sir, with respect to aluminium division, can we practically sell or produce more than 470,000 tons? Can we operate at more than 100% utilization?
You see, our rated capacity is 460, and we are going for 470 now. 472, in fact, this year we are trying to reach 472. One area where we are exploring is getting some scraps. If we get some good quality scrap, because our hot metal production capacity is 470,000, but our casting capacity is more. We have got additional maybe 50,000, 100,000 tons of casting capacity. So we can easily increase the cast metal production capacity if we get good quality scrap.
We are trying to source the scrap, but now we are not able to get good quality scrap. That's why if we get good quality, maybe 10,000, 20,000 tons of scrap, we'll be able to increase our cast metal production capacity.
Understood. Sir, on the aluminium division, a few companies are getting volumes on forward basis. Are we doing anything of that sort, or everything is open to spot prices?
Nay, hedging. You are talking about hedging?
Yeah, yeah, forward sales.
Yeah, yeah, forward sales. No, we have not adopted a hedging mechanism now, because we don't think our model of business, if you see, and alumina and metal, both. So this hedging, we don't feel this is required now, but we don't have any commitment. Our balance is so strong, we don't have any cash flow commitment. So if the situation comes up to 2027, 2028, when our CapEx plan will be in full swing, and we have committed cash flow, and we need to protect our EBITDA and margin, then we will think of this hedging. Till now, we have not gone through that periphery.
Understood. Understood. Sir, with respect to aluminum division, what is the dependence on grid for power requirement? What is the percentage, and is it changing over the last two years?
Very less.
Power, very less. Whatever power we require, around 800MW , that we are totally taking from our own captive source. Sometimes, in case of some very less breakdowns, some breakdowns only we depend on the grid. Almost, 96%-97% of our power.
Understood.
Quarter. Quarter-wise, you can take.
Sir, how much, sorry? 10%.
10%.
I think no, no, not 10%. I think it must be less than 5%.
Actually, till date, up to nine months, we have imported 90 million.
Only INR 90 million.
90, 90, 100
Okay. Okay. And sir, with respect to carbon-
Here, we have generated around 5,773 million units.
Another less than 5%. 1-2%. 2%.
20 million, 100 million units. Okay. Okay. Okay. So just one or two more questions. With respect to the carbon cost, CP coke, CT pitch, etc. , what is the inflation we are seeing and when is it likely to hit?
Price?
CP Coke. CP Coke price.
CP Coke and CT Pitch. CP Coke price, we are expecting that the fourth quarter, it will be around INR 2,000 more. But we have in the last nine months average, it is around INR 52,000. It will be around INR 54,000 in the next quarter, the fourth quarter. That is the increase. And CT Pitch. And CP Coke, there will be increase. CP Coke, there is a huge increase, INR 12,000, but CT Pitch, there is an increase of INR 51,000-INR 53,000, INR 2,000. Yeah, CP, CP Coke, INR 43,000-INR 54,000. We are expecting.
There is increase, no?
Okay. So roughly, 20%?
Yes.
And 5% year.
20%, more than 20% CP coke.
Okay.
Our average price was INR 42,764, and we are expecting in the new contract, it is around INR 54,600. So there is a jump of, a huge jump of that, INR 12,000 around.
And when is this getting reflected from fourth quarter?
Yes, yes. Before it will be reflected.
Is this an annual contract, or is it quarterly or monthly?
Six months. We do for six months. This is coming from, this contract is from January to June.
Got it. Got it. And just, one last question on CapEx. You said around INR 1,800 crore-INR 3,000 crore this year. Is it possible to split how much you are spending on maintenance and how much on the refinery, and then how much is left on refinery?
Refinery, we have planned in the this year. You are talking about the next fiscal 26-27.
This year you said around INR 2,000 crore, right?
This year,
This year is INR 1,700. 25-26, around INR 1,700 CapEx, and I think,
Seventy-seven to.
Six hundred
600-700 is MR. That is addition, modification, and replacement project, and the rest is, other projects. So 1,000 is growth, and 700-800 is, 600-700 is MR.
Within that way.
Okay. Sir, in this refinery, 1 million ton, how much will be left, which will be spent in FY 2026-2027?
5, 26, 27.
To date, we have already spent around INR 5,000 crore, and I think next year it will be around INR 500 crore.
INR 500 crore-INR 600 crore.
Got it. Got it. Just if I may ask one more question, sir, we are doing some JV on caustic soda.
Yeah, Caustic Soda.
Is that production, producing and are we getting any cost benefit or the, profits are getting factored in?
No, we are not getting any benefit, because we are getting a raw material security. Because we have a agreement with them, joint venture agreement, and we will be procuring 1.5 lakhs from them at the price which will be discovered through tender. Whatever price.
Okay.
Now we are going to review that pricing policy, and we'll, it works.
Actually, what is happening, since we have an assured quantity of 150,000 from there, if that quantity is not available, there will be a deficiency in the market and the other suppliers will increase their prices. So this JV goes in a long run, just controlling the.
Yes.
Increase in the prices.
Understood. Got it, sir. Thank you so much, and all the best.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I now hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments.
Thank you, Team Chorus Call. On behalf of NALCO, I thank all the esteemed participants who took out their valuable time and participated in this conference call. This shows your keen interest in the business activities of this NALCO. Thank you, Team Chorus Call, for facilitating this call for Q3 results at NALCO. We are also thankful to Team Systematix for hosting the earnings call on quarter-on-quarter basis, and we solicit your cooperation in future also on a continued basis. Thank you all, and we look forward to similar cooperation in the future as well. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of NALCO, we conclude this earnings call. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.